fleetd #494 follow-up (2nd pass): the grace-release line still had one constant, and its test could not tell the difference

Two more fixes on the same line, LeadRollover.java:600-624:

1. The poll-count argument (second, was PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS) now prints the
   loop's own idlePollsAwaitingPickup counter instead of the constant. Same
   defect shape as the nudges fix from c87cc25, one argument over.

2. LeadRolloverTest's clearGraceReleaseLogIsWarnWithMeasuredElapsed asserted
   its nudge-count expectation as `LeadRollover.PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS - 1` — the
   same expression the production code used to build the log line from, so it
   could not discriminate a reverted fix. Rewritten to plain literals
   ("after 8 consecutive IDLE/DONE polls (7 of those were nudged)"), proven to
   trip when PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS's value changes (2 failures under a
   PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS=5 mutation: this test and successLogPrintsMeasured...).

Also corrected the comment above the log line: idlePollsAwaitingPickup and
nudges each have exactly one write site on this loop's release branch, so they
cannot differ from PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS / PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS - 1 at this call
site — confirmed by re-deriving the loop's control flow, and by reverting just
the nudges argument (M1) and observing 33/0 stayed green even after the test
rewrite. That is an equivalent mutant on this line, not a gap the test rewrite
could close; the honest value of printing the counters is one source of truth
for the loop, not a provable-by-test difference here. The place nudges truly
varies with the run — and is covered by a test that can tell it apart from a
constant — is the /clear-timeout warn's clearResult.nudges() in runRollover.

mvn -Dtest=LeadRolloverTest test: 33/0. mvn clean install: 1681/0, BUILD SUCCESS.

Same-shape sweep (found, not fixed, per instructions):
Injector.java:383-387 — the readiness-grace warn prints the constant
READINESS_GRACE_POLLS where the measured per-target counter
t.notReadySincePoll is in scope (single increment site, just reached the
threshold at this call site — same equivalent-mutant situation as this fix).

.claude/skills/handover/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+---
+name: handover
+description: Procedure for an outgoing lead to write the handover file that a fresh lead session inherits. Load this when your context is filling up and you are about to be replaced, whether you hand off by hand or fleetd does it for you. The file is the new lead's only inheritance — follow it exactly.
+---
+
+# Handover — write the file the next lead depends on
+
+A lead session fills up its context and has to be replaced by a fresh one. The outgoing lead
+writes a handover file, and the new session reads that file and carries on.
+
+**There are two ways to hand off, and the file is the same either way.**
+
+- **By hand.** You write the file, then tell the operator where it is. The operator starts the new
+  session and points it at the file. This always works.
+- **With `fleet_handover`** (fleetd #480, merged 2026-09-11). You ask fleetd to do the swap: it
+  checks the file, clears your pane, and tells the fresh session to read it. This needs
+  `leadRollover:` in `fleetd.yaml`; without it every action answers a clean refusal naming
+  `NOT_CONFIGURED`, and you fall back to the manual path. Section 11 below is the procedure.
+
+Nothing else in this skill changes between the two. Only who performs the swap changes.
+
+**The new lead's only inheritance is that file.** It does not see your conversation, your plan,
+or your screen. If the file is thin or wrong, the new lead re-derives what you already knew, and
+that wastes hours. Writing a good handover file is real work. It is not paperwork you rush
+through at the end of a session.
+
+This skill is the procedure for writing it. Every rule below earned its place because a past
+handover got it wrong.
+
+## 1. Confirm you are the right session to write this
+
+Run `fleet_whoami` first. It must answer `primary`. Only a primary (lead) session writes a
+handover file. A worker's job ends with its own pull request, not a fleet-wide handoff.
+
+## 2. Every number needs a command, run in this turn
+
+A number is a claim: a count, a commit hash, a process id, a percentage, a queue depth. Before
+you write one, run the command that produces it — now, in this turn, against the live state.
+
+Never take a number from:
+
+- earlier in your own conversation — the state has moved since then,
+- a peer lead's report — that is their measurement, not yours,
+- your own memory of an earlier session.
+
+Put the command, or its real output, next to the number. That lets the next lead re-run it and
+check it still matches. If you cannot measure something yourself, say so instead of guessing:
+"the fleet01 lead reports 91 commits behind; I have not checked this myself."
+
+## 3. Say what you measured and what you did not
+
+Mark every claim as one of two things:
+
+- **"I checked this myself, in the code or on this host, at `<time>`."**
+- **"I did not check this myself; `<who>` reported it."**
+
+Never present someone else's measurement as your own. This matters most for cross-host claims —
+a peer lead's daemon, a worker's report, or something the operator said earlier that you cannot
+re-verify from here.
+
+## 4. Record open decisions, and who owns them
+
+List three things:
+
+- what the operator actually asked for, in their own words where you have them,
+- what is still unanswered,
+- any question you decided yourself instead of asking, with your reason.
+
+Write the decision so it cannot be mistaken for the operator's instruction. Say plainly: "the
+operator never answered X; I decided Y, because Z." Without this, the next lead either silently
+reopens a closed question or assumes the operator chose something they never did.
+
+## 5. Record live hazards
+
+List anything that will break if the next lead does the obvious thing next. This includes:
+
+- unpushed commits or unmerged branches,
+- a build, a spawn, or a redeploy still running,
+- code merged to `main` but not yet redeployed to the live daemon,
+- any trap that looks safe and is not — say what goes wrong and why, not only that something is
+  "tricky."
+
+## 6. Record what is explicitly not owed
+
+List work that is finished, and work that another party has said they do not want touched. Name
+who said so and when. Without this line, the next lead re-does closed work or reopens a question
+a peer already declined to revisit.
+
+## 7. Open the file with three re-measurement commands
+
+The file's own first section must give the next lead three concrete commands to run before
+acting on anything else in the file:
+
+1. confirm role — for example `fleet_whoami`,
+2. confirm the state of the working tree — for example `git status` and
+   `git rev-list origin/main..HEAD`,
+3. read the live fleet — for example `fleet_list`.
+
+Record what each command answered when you wrote the file, and tell the reader to run it again
+rather than trust your answer. The point of this section is that the reader checks live state
+before acting on any claim in the rest of the file, including yours.
+
+## 8. Stamp the file with time and commit
+
+Near the top of the file, write:
+
+- the date and time you wrote it,
+- the commit the tree was on (`git rev-parse HEAD`),
+- whether the tree was clean (`git status`).
+
+Without this, nobody can tell how old the file is, or which code it describes.
+
+## 9. State plainly that the file goes stale fast
+
+Say near the top: **re-measure anything you act on.** The file goes stale the moment anyone
+merges a branch, spawns a member, or restarts the daemon. Everything in the file is a snapshot
+of one moment, not a live fact.
+
+## 10. What to leave out
+
+Do not include:
+
+- narration of how the session felt, or how hard something was,
+- anything the repo already records — code structure, git history, or a rule already written in
+  `CLAUDE.md`. Point at it instead of repeating it,
+- advice that is only true for the session that is ending — a half-open terminal, a local
+  variable, a train of thought with no state behind it.
+
+A handover file is a record of state and decisions. It is not a diary.
+
+## 11. Using `fleet_handover` (only if `leadRollover:` is configured)
+
+**Run the three steps in this order. The order is not a style choice — the wrong order is
+refused.**
+
+1. **`fleet_handover{action: "open", reason: "<why now>"}`.** It returns a `token` and the
+   `handoverPath` you must write to. Nothing has happened to your pane yet.
+
+   **Write to exactly that path, and do not resolve it yourself.** It is always absolute, even when
+   the operator configured a relative `handoverPath`: fleetd resolves a relative one against your
+   own workspace before it hands it to you. The daemon and your pane can run in different
+   directories, so a path you resolve yourself can point at a different file from the one the daemon
+   will check.
+
+   **Check that the path is ignored by git before you write to it (#491).** A relative
+   `handoverPath` resolves inside YOUR workspace, which is usually a repository — and usually not
+   the `fleetd` one, so an ignore rule added to `fleetd` does not protect it. Run
+   `grep -n handover <your workspace>/.gitignore`. No output means the file you are about to write
+   will show up as untracked content in that repo. The file is a snapshot of live state and must
+   never be committed, so tell the operator rather than committing it or silently editing their
+   `.gitignore`.
+2. **Write the handover file at that path**, following sections 1–10 above.
+3. **Ask the operator, then `fleet_handover{action: "confirm", token, operatorConfirmed: true}`.**
+
+Why that order: `confirm` refuses with `HANDOVER_STALE` unless the file was modified **after** the
+`open` request. That check stops a leftover file from an earlier session being accepted as this
+one's handover. So writing the file first and then calling `open` — the obvious order — always
+fails.
+
+`{action: "cancel", token}` drops a pending request without rolling.
+
+**Things that will surprise you:**
+
+- **`accepted` does not mean your pane has been cleared.** It means every gate passed and the roll
+  is scheduled to run once your current turn ends. Say your goodbye in the same turn — you will not
+  get another one.
+- **There is no terminal or session parameter, on purpose.** The pane is always your own, resolved
+  from your connection, so you can only ever roll yourself.
+- **`operatorConfirmed` is your report of what a human told you.** Do not pass `true` because you
+  are confident. Ask, wait for the answer, then pass what they said. `requireOperatorConfirm`
+  defaults to `true` and this is the only thing standing between a judgement call and a wiped
+  session.
+- **The roll can still refuse after `confirm` returns**, and by then there is no caller to tell.
+  Those outcomes are logged only, as `lead-rollover:` lines in the daemon log.
+- **The bootstrap prompt has never yet landed, and the fix is unproven (fleetd #489).** The first
+  real rollover, on 2026-09-12, joined `/clear` and the bootstrap text into one line and Claude Code
+  refused it as `Unknown command: /clearFresh`. The pane was never cleared and no context was lost,
+  so the failure was safe — the roll simply did nothing. PR #490 fixed the cause and is deployed,
+  but no roll has bootstrapped a fresh session end to end yet. **Assume it may still fail, and tell
+  the operator so before you confirm.** The recovery is the same either way: the file is already
+  written, so the operator starts a session and points it at the file. That is why you write the
+  file before you confirm, and never the other way round.
+
+## Writing style
+
+Write in plain English. Use everyday words, one idea per sentence, and active voice. Keep every
+class, method, file, flag, and config key exactly as it appears in the code — replacing a
+precise term with a vague one makes the sentence wrong, not simpler. Explain an abbreviation the
+first time you use it.
+
+If a diagram genuinely helps, put it in the `.md` file as a fenced ` ```mermaid ` block with no
+hardcoded colors, so it stays readable on light and dark backgrounds. Quote any label that has
+brackets, colons, or slashes.
+
+## Template
+
+```markdown
+# Handover — <fleet name> lead session, <date and time>
+
+Written at commit `<output of git rev-parse HEAD>`. Tree was <clean, or dirty: `<git status
+summary>`>. Re-measure anything you act on — this file goes stale the moment anyone merges,
+spawns, or restarts.
+
+## 0. Do these three things first
+
+1. Confirm your role: `fleet_whoami` — must answer `primary`. (Answered `<result>` at `<time>`.)
+2. Confirm tree state: `git status`, `git rev-list origin/main..HEAD`. (`<result>` at `<time>`.)
+3. Read the live fleet: `fleet_list`. (`<result>` at `<time>`.)
+
+## 1. What the operator asked for
+
+<the live instructions, in their words where you have them; what is still open; any decision
+you made yourself, and why>
+
+## 2. Open decisions, and who owns them
+
+<one line per decision: who owns it, what is unanswered>
+
+## 3. Live hazards
+
+<one entry per hazard: what breaks, and why, if the next lead does the obvious thing>
+
+## 4. What is not owed
+
+<finished work, and work another party has declined; name who said so and when>
+```

.claude/skills/redeploy-fleetd/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+---
+name: redeploy-fleetd
+description: Rebuild and restart the live fleetd daemon after a merge (lead / primary only). Load this before redeploying — it holds the script, the drain step, the permission grant, and the five checks that have each gone wrong here before. Workers must never do this.
+---
+
+### Redeploying the daemon — the lead may do this (primary only)
+
+**A merge is not a deployment.** The running `fleetd` holds the jar it was started with, so a
+feature merged to `main` does nothing until the daemon is rebuilt and restarted. Saying "shipped"
+about code the live daemon has never loaded is a false report. The lead **may and should** redeploy
+rather than hand the job back to the operator.
+
+Workers must never do this. A worker has no business restarting the daemon it is talking through,
+and stopping it kills the worker's own channel mid-turn.
+
+**Use the script — do not hand-roll the steps.**
+
+```bash
+scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh --check   # report state, change nothing
+scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh           # build, confirm drain, restart, verify
+scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh --yes     # skip the drain prompt (fleet already checked)
+scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh --no-build # restart the jar already on disk
+```
+
+`--no-build` skips the build and restarts whatever jar is at `fleetd/target/fleetd.jar`. Use it only
+when you just built and nothing changed since. It gives up the protection in the next paragraph: no
+build runs, so a stale or missing jar is not caught early. The script still checks the file is there
+and dies with `no jar at … — run without --no-build` if it is not, but it cannot tell you the jar is
+old. A `mvn clean` in the tree deletes that jar while the daemon keeps running on it, and nothing
+degrades until the next restart. Run `--check` first: it prints the jar's hash and its modification
+time, so you can see for yourself whether the jar is missing or older than the code you mean to ship.
+
+It builds before it stops anything, so a failed build never leaves the fleet down; it waits for the
+old process to exit rather than assuming; it polls `/healthz`; and it anchors its log checks to a
+line marker taken before the restart, so old errors cannot be misread as new ones. Run `--check`
+first — it is read-only and reports whether the forge token resolves, which nothing else tells you.
+
+The script encodes the five things below, each of which has gone wrong here before. Read them anyway:
+if the script is unavailable or a step fails, this is what it was protecting you from.
+
+1. **Login shell, or workers silently lose their forge token.** The daemon inherits
+   `WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN` from the shell that starts it, and that comes from
+   `${SHARED_ENV}/tools/secrets.sh`. Start it from a non-login shell and the variable is empty, the
+   daemon starts fine, and the failure appears much later as workers that cannot open a PR. Nothing
+   logs this at startup — the script's `--check` is the only thing that reports it, and it checks
+   whether the name resolves without ever printing the value.
+2. **Drain live members first.** `fleet_list`, then `fleet_stop` each member, and collect anything
+   you still want with `fleet_poll` before you kill anything. A restart drops in-flight tickets and
+   rendezvous, and a member's report is not recoverable once its ticket is gone.
+3. **A restart is the only way deferred config keys take effect.** That is usually the reason to do
+   it. The startup log names which keys it accepted and which it deferred — read those lines rather
+   than assuming.
+4. **Re-check identity afterwards.** Call `fleet_whoami` and confirm it still answers `primary`. The
+   lead is found by its tab label (`fleet.leaders.*.tab`), and a lead whose tab no longer matches is
+   demoted to worker, which refuses every orchestration call.
+5. **Prove the new jar is the one running.** Confirm a *fresh* `fleetd listening` line at the end of
+   `fleetd/fleetd.out`, dated after the restart. An old daemon that never died looks identical from
+   the outside.
+
+**Permission.** A `CLAUDE.md` rule grants intent, not tool permission — the command classifier
+refuses a bare `kill` on the daemon whatever this file says. The script is the seam that fixes that:
+it is one auditable command, so the operator allow-lists it once instead of approving a stop and a
+start every time. The rule lives in the operator's Claude Code settings:
+
+```json
+{ "permissions": { "allow": ["Bash(scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh:*)"] } }
+```
+
+Granted by the operator on 2026-08-15. If a call is still refused, do **not** route around it by
+running the stop and start as separate commands — that is exactly the approval the script replaced.
+Say what you were going to run and why, and let the operator decide.
+

.gitea/workflows/ci.yml

@@ -87,12 +87,18 @@ jobs:
           apt-get update && apt-get install -y --no-install-recommends maven
           mvn -version
 
-      # The `contract` profile clears the default-excludes group, so the @Tag("contract") AMQP test
-      # runs against the RabbitMQ service container (AMQP_URI). Pinned to the one contract test to
-      # avoid re-running the unit suite already covered by the `build` job.
+      # The `contract` profile clears the default-excludes group, so `-Dgroups=contract` runs every
+      # @Tag("contract") test and nothing from the unit suite the `build` job already covered — a
+      # tag selects the whole group, so a test added to it later runs here automatically. A prior
+      # version of this step pinned `-Dtest=AmqpReplyInboxContractTest` by class name instead: that
+      # silently excluded every other contract test (including the herdr ones) from CI, and nobody
+      # noticed until the herdr protocol drifted out from under a test that never ran here
+      # (fleetd #449). If this runner has no herdr socket, the herdr-backed tests in the group
+      # skip on their own `assumeTrue` and only the broker-backed ones actually run — check the
+      # step output rather than assuming which.
       - name: Contract tests
         working-directory: fleetd
-        run: mvn -B -Pcontract test -Dtest=AmqpReplyInboxContractTest
+        run: mvn -B -Pcontract test -Dgroups=contract
 
       - name: Failing test output
         if: failure()

.gitignore

@@ -19,3 +19,9 @@
 fleetd.out
 fleetd/fleetd.out
 logs/
+
+# fleetd #480: the lead rollover handover file. `leadRollover.handoverPath` points here, and the
+# outgoing lead rewrites it on every rollover. It is a snapshot of one moment's live state —
+# unpushed branches, running builds, open questions — so it is stale the moment it is written and
+# has no business in git history.
+.handover/

CLAUDE.md

@@ -58,8 +58,9 @@ and the sender silently receives nothing. Fail toward the recoverable error.
    re-send because a call looks slow — the bridge delivers when the peer is `idle`, `blocked` or
    `done`. A spawned member must **also** have mounted the bridge MCP: until it has, it is not
    deliverable, and a send waits on that gate for ~60s and then fails without ever reaching its pane.
-5. **Never drive the terminal multiplexer directly** (no `herdr` CLI, no socket). The bridge owns
-   policy; the multiplexer owns PTYs. Going around the bridge bypasses every rule above.
+5. **Never move a fleet session, pane or peer except through the bridge.** The bridge owns policy;
+   the multiplexer owns PTYs. Any route that changes fleet state without the bridge's checks
+   bypasses every rule above — the `herdr` CLI and its socket are the usual example.
 
 ### Primary (lead) — run this on every task, in order
 
@@ -141,6 +142,7 @@ the merge — and merging on a reviewer's word is delegating it by proxy.
 | Read your own held lead-to-lead mail (no ack) | `fleet_poll{coordId: <your own coord-id, from fleet_list's coordinator.selfId>}` — primary-only; never acks, so `fleet_list`'s `held[]` still shows it after. `fleet_list`'s `held[]` gives only a truncated preview — this is the only way to read the full body |
 | Collect a held reply | `fleet_poll{target}` · then `fleet_ack{target, msgId}` |
 | Tear down a member | `fleet_stop{paneId}` |
+| Replace your OWN lead session when its context is full | `fleet_handover{action:"open", reason?}` → write the handover file it names → `fleet_handover{action:"confirm", token, operatorConfirmed}`. Primary-only. **In that order**: the file must be modified *after* `open`, or `confirm` refuses it as stale. There is no terminal parameter — the pane is always your own, so you can never roll another lead. `{action:"cancel", token}` drops a pending request |
 
 ### Lead ↔ lead — coordinate, never delegate
 
@@ -223,6 +225,19 @@ must obey belongs in the charter, not here.
 - **This repo is the bridge.** The daemon is `fleetd`, its MCP mount is `http://127.0.0.1:8765/mcp`,
   and the code behind the rules above is `mcp/FleetMcp` (tools), `auth/Authz` (the role table),
   `mcp/ConnectionIdentity` (connection→role), and `worker/*Launcher` (`REPLY_CHARTER`).
+- **Herdr socket tests (measured 2026-09-10).** In this repo, herdr is a subject under test. A
+  worker assigned to herdr code, and the lead, may let a test open the herdr socket directly in a
+  throwaway workspace that the test tears down. This only covers
+  `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/AgentControlContractTest.java`,
+  `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/HerdrContractTest.java`,
+  `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/PaneLocatorContractTest.java`, and
+  `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/WorkspacePlacementContractTest.java`. It is not a
+  general licence. Using the herdr CLI or socket to move a real fleet session, pane, or peer stays
+  banned. That is the control plane that invariant 5 protects. Re-measure with
+  `grep -rl 'UnixSocketHerdrClient.connect()' fleetd/src/test/java --include='*.java'`. A non-empty
+  result means tests still open the socket and this note still applies. An empty result means nobody
+  does this any more; delete this section. Canonical invariant 5 restatement is tracked in #458 and
+  is not part of this change.
 - **`fleet_profiles`/`fleet_list` report two separate outage states, and they are not the same
   thing.** *Quarantined* (CB-578) means the backend told us it is out of capacity — a long,
   1800s-default cooldown. *Cooling off* (fleetd #201/#227) means a profile's credential threw two
@@ -243,8 +258,11 @@ must obey belongs in the charter, not here.
   already cost three workers' turns: each wrote a good report to its terminal and ended the turn
   with no `fleet_reply`, and the scrape returned the tail of the brief instead.
 - **Primary-side skills** (not delegation playbooks — a worker cannot use them):
-  `port-to-opencode` (make an OpenCode session a participant in this workspace) and
-  `fleets-status` (report every fleet that shares one LavinMQ instance).
+  `port-to-opencode` (make an OpenCode session a participant in this workspace),
+  `fleets-status` (report every fleet that shares one LavinMQ instance),
+  `redeploy-fleetd` (rebuild and restart the live daemon after a merge) and
+  `handover` (write the file a fresh lead session inherits when the outgoing one hands off,
+  fleetd #480).
 - **This repo is also a Claude Code marketplace, and ships a plugin.** `.claude-plugin/marketplace.json`
   points at `plugin/`, which carries the MCP mount and the `setup` skill
   (`/claude-bridge:setup` — make any project bridge-ready). It was added in CB-527 and then went
@@ -278,60 +296,14 @@ must obey belongs in the charter, not here.
 ### Redeploying the daemon — the lead may do this (primary only)
 
 **A merge is not a deployment.** The running `fleetd` holds the jar it was started with, so a
-feature merged to `main` does nothing until the daemon is rebuilt and restarted. Saying "shipped"
-about code the live daemon has never loaded is a false report. The lead **may and should** redeploy
-rather than hand the job back to the operator.
+feature merged to `main` does nothing until the daemon is rebuilt and restarted. The lead **may and
+should** redeploy rather than hand the job back to the operator. **Workers must never do this** — a
+worker has no business restarting the daemon it is talking through, and stopping it kills the
+worker's own channel mid-turn.
 
-Workers must never do this. A worker has no business restarting the daemon it is talking through,
-and stopping it kills the worker's own channel mid-turn.
-
-**Use the script — do not hand-roll the steps.**
-
-```bash
-scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh --check   # report state, change nothing
-scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh           # build, confirm drain, restart, verify
-scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh --yes     # skip the drain prompt (fleet already checked)
-```
-
-It builds before it stops anything, so a failed build never leaves the fleet down; it waits for the
-old process to exit rather than assuming; it polls `/healthz`; and it anchors its log checks to a
-line marker taken before the restart, so old errors cannot be misread as new ones. Run `--check`
-first — it is read-only and reports whether the forge token resolves, which nothing else tells you.
-
-The script encodes the five things below, each of which has gone wrong here before. Read them anyway:
-if the script is unavailable or a step fails, this is what it was protecting you from.
-
-1. **Login shell, or workers silently lose their forge token.** The daemon inherits
-   `WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN` from the shell that starts it, and that comes from
-   `${SHARED_ENV}/tools/secrets.sh`. Start it from a non-login shell and the variable is empty, the
-   daemon starts fine, and the failure appears much later as workers that cannot open a PR. Nothing
-   logs this at startup — the script's `--check` is the only thing that reports it, and it checks
-   whether the name resolves without ever printing the value.
-2. **Drain live members first.** `fleet_list`, then `fleet_stop` each member, and collect anything
-   you still want with `fleet_poll` before you kill anything. A restart drops in-flight tickets and
-   rendezvous, and a member's report is not recoverable once its ticket is gone.
-3. **A restart is the only way deferred config keys take effect.** That is usually the reason to do
-   it. The startup log names which keys it accepted and which it deferred — read those lines rather
-   than assuming.
-4. **Re-check identity afterwards.** Call `fleet_whoami` and confirm it still answers `primary`. The
-   lead is found by its tab label (`fleet.leaders.*.tab`), and a lead whose tab no longer matches is
-   demoted to worker, which refuses every orchestration call.
-5. **Prove the new jar is the one running.** Confirm a *fresh* `fleetd listening` line at the end of
-   `fleetd/fleetd.out`, dated after the restart. An old daemon that never died looks identical from
-   the outside.
-
-**Permission.** A `CLAUDE.md` rule grants intent, not tool permission — the command classifier
-refuses a bare `kill` on the daemon whatever this file says. The script is the seam that fixes that:
-it is one auditable command, so the operator allow-lists it once instead of approving a stop and a
-start every time. The rule lives in the operator's Claude Code settings:
-
-```json
-{ "permissions": { "allow": ["Bash(scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh:*)"] } }
-```
-
-Granted by the operator on 2026-08-15. If a call is still refused, do **not** route around it by
-running the stop and start as separate commands — that is exactly the approval the script replaced.
-Say what you were going to run and why, and let the operator decide.
+**Load the `redeploy-fleetd` skill before you redeploy.** It holds `scripts/redeploy-fleetd.sh`
+and its flags, the drain step, the operator's permission grant, and the five checks that have each
+gone wrong here before. Do not hand-roll the steps from memory.
 
 ### The prompt is part of the product — update it with the code (mandatory)
 
@@ -379,6 +351,16 @@ print("in sync:", w[i:w.index("\n```\n", i) + 1] == block)
 PY
 ```
 
+**Only the lead can run that check (measured 2026-09-10).** A member's provisioned worktree has
+`wiki/` uninitialized, so the script dies with `FileNotFoundError: wiki/7-Use-Cases.md`. Measured
+in three worker worktrees: `git submodule status` printed a leading `-` and `wiki/` held 0
+entries; the primary's own clone printed a leading `+` and the file was there. So never make this
+check a member's acceptance criterion — it is unsatisfiable for them, and a brief that asks for it
+is asking a worker to invent a pass. A member told to check it must say it could not run it, and
+must never report it as passed. The lead runs it in the main clone before merging. Re-measure with
+`git submodule status` in a member's worktree: a leading `-` means this still applies; once it
+prints a commit with no `-`, delete this paragraph.
+
 ## IDE MCP tools & validation workflow (enforced)
 
 > **Primary only.** Workers have no IDE MCP mount — if you are a worker, skip this section and

fleetd/fleetd.example.yaml

@@ -88,6 +88,47 @@ bind:
 #   backoffMs: 60000
 #   quietNudgeCap: 3
 
+# Lead rollover (fleetd #480): replace a lead session that has decided it is ready to be replaced,
+# without an operator doing it by hand. A lead writes a handover file, then asks fleetd to clear its
+# own pane and bootstrap a fresh session against that file.
+#
+# Opt-in on purpose — it clears the lead's own pane on request, so upgrading the daemon must never
+# acquire that ability for you. Absent block = feature off, and nothing is constructed at all. Even
+# once present, nothing but an explicit confirm() call — one that passes every check — can ever
+# cause a /clear: there is no recurring timer, heartbeat or scheduler anywhere in this feature that
+# fires one on its own initiative. confirm() itself is called FROM the calling lead's own turn, so
+# it cannot clear the pane inline (that pane is still WORKING); instead it schedules a one-shot
+# continuation that waits for the SAME confirm() call's turn to end, then does the actual work. See
+# dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover's class javadoc for the exact order (fleetd #480 correction).
+#
+# handoverPath: REQUIRED when this block is present — where the handover file a fresh lead session
+#               reads must live. No default (an operator-specific path); a present block with no
+#               handoverPath refuses to start. May be relative: it then resolves against the
+#               CALLING lead's own fleet.leaders.<name>.cwd (falling back to the daemon's own
+#               working directory when that lead has none configured) — never against whatever
+#               directory the daemon process happens to have been started in. An absolute path is
+#               used unchanged. Prefer an absolute path if the daemon and the lead's pane might not
+#               share a working directory (fleetd #480 follow-up).
+# requireOperatorConfirm: true    # default true — confirm() refuses unless the caller also passes
+#                                 # operatorConfirmed: true
+# maxDocAgeSeconds: 3600          # default 3600 — refuse a handover file older than this
+# turnSettleSeconds: 20           # default 20 — how long the deferred roll waits for the CALLING
+#                                 # lead's own turn to end (its pane to report injectable again)
+#                                 # before sending /clear at all. If this elapses, /clear is NEVER
+#                                 # sent — a lead that never goes idle is still doing real work.
+# clearSettleSeconds: 20          # default 20 — how long to wait for the pane to become injectable
+#                                 # again AFTER /clear before giving up (never sends bootstrapText
+#                                 # if this elapses). A separate, second wait from turnSettleSeconds.
+# bootstrapText: "..."            # default names the RESOLVED (absolute) handoverPath — sent to
+#                                 # the lead once its pane settles after /clear
+# leadRollover:
+#   handoverPath: /path/to/handover.md
+#   requireOperatorConfirm: true
+#   maxDocAgeSeconds: 3600
+#   turnSettleSeconds: 20
+#   clearSettleSeconds: 20
+#   bootstrapText: "Fresh lead session: read the handover file and carry on."
+
 # Fleet health detection is dormant unless enabled (CB-573). It reads one whole-fleet agent list
 # per tick.
 #   intervalSeconds → how often a tick runs (default 30). ENFORCED floor of 15: the code computes
@@ -207,8 +248,12 @@ herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
 #                      omit and this profile's completion fallback behaves exactly as before.
 #                      Every backend words its refusal differently, so this is config, never a
 #                      vendor string baked into fleetd itself.
-#                      DEFERRED: compiled once into a startup pattern map — editing it needs a
-#                      daemon restart, same as this profile's model/baseUrl/argv.
+#                      HOT (fleetd #446): read live, cached by profile name, at every
+#                      completion-fallback check AND by fleet_profiles' exhaustionDetectionArmed —
+#                      editing it and reloading arms or disarms usage-limit detection for this
+#                      profile with no daemon restart. (Before fleetd #446 this was DEFERRED,
+#                      compiled once into a startup pattern map like model/baseUrl/argv still are —
+#                      see errorPattern below, which is still deferred that way on purpose.)
 #   credentialId     → CB-578 stage B: the credential this profile quarantines WITH when a
 #                      BACKEND_EXHAUSTED classification fires. Two profiles that set the SAME
 #                      credentialId share one quarantine — the case this exists for is two models
@@ -227,8 +272,9 @@ herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
 #                      happens, just without a profile-specific match; every backend words its
 #                      failure differently, so a hardcoded sentence would only ever match one
 #                      of them.
-#                      DEFERRED: compiled once into a startup pattern map, same as exhaustedPattern
-#                      — editing it needs a daemon restart.
+#                      DEFERRED: compiled once into a startup pattern map — editing it needs a
+#                      daemon restart. Unlike exhaustedPattern above (made hot by fleetd #446),
+#                      errorPattern was scoped out of that ticket on purpose and stays deferred.
 #                      # errorPattern: "503 Service Unavailable"   # opt-in: classify a backend outage
 #
 #                      What happens once a match fires (BackendOutagePolicy, credentialId-keyed,
@@ -447,6 +493,15 @@ placement: weighted
 # seconds, before a spawn may land on it again. Applies to every profile's effective credential
 # (its own name, or its credentialId if set above) — there is no per-profile override. Default
 # 1800 (30 minutes) when omitted or non-positive.
+#
+# fleetd #466: this is now only the BASE of an escalating backoff, not a flat retry rate. A
+# credential quarantined again within one base cooldown of the previous quarantine ending (still
+# reporting exhausted — e.g. a weekly subscription limit that hasn't reset) backs off further:
+# cooldown doubles each such time, capped at 12x this value (~6 hours at the 1800s default). A
+# quarantine that starts after a base-cooldown's worth of quiet resets back to this value. Not
+# configurable per se — the multiplier and ceiling are constants in BackendQuarantine, not new
+# YAML keys; see its class doc for the exact formula and why there is no automatic probe to clear
+# it early (the operator's own design constraint — a probe spends the quota it's measuring).
 # DEFERRED: baked once into the BackendQuarantine built at startup — a running quarantine keeps
 # its original cooldown regardless; a new value only applies to a quarantine that starts after a
 # restart. Editing this needs a daemon restart to take effect.
@@ -468,9 +523,10 @@ placement: weighted
 # when the reload happens — not about how important the key is:
 #   HOT       → takes effect on the next spawn: the whole `fleet:` block (every role pool,
 #               `charters`, and `tabLabel`), `placement:`, and an existing profile's weight / maxLoad
-#               / credentialId. Those are hot because the placement policy (and, for credentialId,
-#               the CB-578 stage B quarantine check) reads them through a supplier — being config is
-#               not by itself enough to make a key hot.
+#               / credentialId / exhaustedPattern. Those are hot because the placement policy (and,
+#               for credentialId, the CB-578 stage B quarantine check; for exhaustedPattern, fleetd
+#               #446's LiveExhaustedPatterns) reads them through a supplier — being config is not by
+#               itself enough to make a key hot.
 #               EXCEPT `fleet.leaders`: Fleetd.main reads it once at startup to build the lead tab
 #               scanner and launcher, and neither is rebuilt on reload. A changed/added/removed
 #               `fleet.leaders` entry is silently accepted — the reload reports "config reloaded"
@@ -482,10 +538,10 @@ placement: weighted
 #               stage B — baked once into the quarantine tracker built at startup), ADDING or
 #               REMOVING a profile (a new backend needs its own launcher, and launchers are built
 #               once), AND an existing profile's launch settings — model, baseUrl, argv, env,
-#               configDir, mcpUrl, tabLabel, exhaustedPattern, errorPattern (fleetd #201 / #227 —
-#               compiled once into a startup pattern map the same way exhaustedPattern is). The
-#               launcher takes a copy of `profiles:` at startup and resolves every spawn out of
-#               that copy, so those never
+#               configDir, mcpUrl, tabLabel, errorPattern (fleetd #201 / #227 — compiled once into
+#               a startup pattern map; exhaustedPattern used to be compiled the same way until
+#               fleetd #446 made it hot — see above). The launcher takes a copy of `profiles:` at
+#               startup and resolves every spawn out of that copy, so those never
 #               reach a launch until you restart. The reload logs them by name rather than
 #               pretending they applied.
 #   COLD      → cannot change at all: `bind:`, `herdrSocket:`, `broker:` and `auth:`. The socket is
@@ -787,12 +843,21 @@ guard:
 # .claude/skills/, so a member spawned against ANY repo — not only one that already ships its own
 # copy — can load a bridge skill (e.g. implementer). Unset (the default): no worktree is touched
 # beyond today's behaviour. A skill folder the target repo already carries under
-# .claude/skills/<name> is never overwritten — the repo's own copy always wins. Claude Code
-# members only; an opencode member reads a different path (.opencode/agent) this key does not
-# touch. Best-effort like worktreeGroup above: a missing/unreadable directory here is logged and
-# skipped, never a failed spawn. Every non-hidden subdirectory of this directory is copied
-# wholesale, with no per-file allowlist — don't park scratch files or drafts alongside the real
-# skill folders, they will be copied into every provisioned worktree too.
+# .claude/skills/<name> is never overwritten — the repo's own copy always wins. Best-effort like
+# worktreeGroup above: a missing/unreadable directory here is logged and skipped, never a failed
+# spawn. Every non-hidden subdirectory of this directory is copied wholesale, with no per-file
+# allowlist — don't park scratch files or drafts alongside the real skill folders, they will be
+# copied into every provisioned worktree too.
+#
+# fleetd #393: which member KINDS actually consume this once it is copied. kind: claude-code —
+# the Claude Code CLI discovers .claude/skills/ on its own; nothing else is needed. kind: opencode
+# — opencode has no such discovery, so OpenCodeLauncher reads whatever landed under
+# .claude/skills/ and appends each seeded skill's SKILL.md to the generated instructions[] file
+# (opencode's only channel for static guidance text; unlike Claude Code's Skill tool, the content
+# is always part of the system prompt, not loaded on demand). Both kinds are covered as of #393 —
+# earlier builds copied the files for every kind but only claude-code could read them, and the
+# seeding log said "N of M" regardless. Check the per-spawn launcher log (not just the seeding
+# log) to see what a given member actually got.
 # memberSkills: /path/to/fleetd/checkout/.claude/skills
 
 # Session lifecycle limits (CB-303). All knobs are opt-in; omit or set to null to keep

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrRouter;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.LeadTabScanner;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.PaneLocator;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.UnixSocketHerdrClient;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
@@ -18,6 +19,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorSink;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustedPatternLookup;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustionSink;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.LiveExhaustedPatterns;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.Injector;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.StatusPoller;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.TurnListener;
@@ -25,6 +27,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.MemberPresence;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.MemberRegistry;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.CallerResolver;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.FleetMcp;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.CharterToolSurface;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.ConnectionIdentity;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.metrics.FleetMetrics;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.metrics.Metrics;
@@ -65,11 +68,13 @@ import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.util.ArrayList;
 import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Optional;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.TreeSet;
+import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
 import java.util.concurrent.Executors;
 import java.util.concurrent.ScheduledExecutorService;
 import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
@@ -78,6 +83,7 @@ import java.util.function.Function;
 import java.util.function.Predicate;
 import java.util.function.Supplier;
 import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+import java.util.stream.Collectors;
 
 /**
  * {@code fleetd} entry point. Wires the real herdr socket client to the REST app and
@@ -143,7 +149,10 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         // wiring below reads it, and must, because those decisions cannot be unmade. `config` is the
         // live reference the hot paths read per use. Which keys can actually move is ConfigRef's
         // contract; adding a reader here does not make a key reloadable by itself.
-        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(configPath, cfg);
+        // fleetd #474: pass the charter/tool-surface check in as ConfigRef's extraValidation, so
+        // ConfigRef#reload() runs the same gate main() runs below, without dev.ltms.fleet.config
+        // gaining a dependency on dev.ltms.fleet.mcp — Fleetd is the seam that already holds both.
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(configPath, cfg, Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools);
 
         // The primary/host env that launched fleetd must not be tainted.
         SubscriptionGuard guard = new SubscriptionGuard(cfg.guard().hostSet());
@@ -159,6 +168,17 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         // and the Fleetd-startup tests actually pin — see FleetConfig#validateAll's javadoc for
         // why a name-by-name list here would have the same defect it replaces.
         cfg.validateAll();
+        // fleetd #469, follow-up to #464: validateAll() (and validateCharters() inside it) only
+        // checks that a charter's KEY is a role wire name and its text is non-blank — it never
+        // looks at what the text actually names. This is the separate check that does: it asks
+        // dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.FleetTool (the canonical registered-tool set) whether every fleet_*/
+        // bridge_* token a charter names is a tool this server actually registers. It cannot live
+        // inside FleetConfig#validateCharters() — config loads before the MCP server exists, and
+        // must not gain a dependency on the mcp package — so it runs here instead, at the one seam
+        // that already holds both a loaded FleetConfig and the mcp package, before anything below
+        // opens a socket or spawns a member. fleetd #474: the same check is also wired into `config`
+        // above as ConfigRef's extraValidation, so a reload refuses what this line refuses at startup.
+        assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(cfg);
 
         Path socket = cfg.herdrSocket() != null && !cfg.herdrSocket().isBlank()
                 ? Path.of(cfg.herdrSocket())
@@ -218,7 +238,13 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         // (checked at spawn) and the exhaustion sink wired in below (written on BACKEND_EXHAUSTED).
         // The cooldown is deferred (see FleetConfig#quarantineCooldownSeconds): it is read once
         // here, at startup, and a config reload only changes it for a daemon restart.
-        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(System::nanoTime,
+        // fleetd #466: escalating, not flat — a credential that keeps reporting exhaustion (e.g. a
+        // weekly subscription limit, which would otherwise be retried on every ~30-minute cooldown,
+        // about 336 times across the week) backs off further each consecutive time, capped at
+        // BackendQuarantine.DEFAULT_MAX_COOLDOWN_MULTIPLE x the base cooldown. See BackendQuarantine's
+        // class doc for the mechanism, why this never fires on cooling-off (a separate, unescalated
+        // mechanism — BackendOutagePolicy below), and the reset.
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(System::nanoTime,
                 TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds()));
         // fleetd #201 Unit 5: one outage-cool-off tracker for the whole daemon, shared between the
         // launcher (checked at spawn, like `quarantine` above) and the backend-error sink wired in
@@ -378,28 +404,34 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
         // CB-578 stage A: classify a completion-fallback scrape that matches a profile's configured
         // usage-limit refusal as BACKEND_EXHAUSTED rather than handing it back as a real answer.
-        // Compiled once at startup, keyed by profile name; a profile with no exhaustedPattern is
-        // simply absent here, so its workers keep today's completion-fallback behaviour unchanged.
-        Map<String, Pattern> exhaustedPatternsByProfile = new LinkedHashMap<>();
-        cfg.profiles().forEach((name, profile) -> {
-            if (profile.hasExhaustedPattern()) {
-                exhaustedPatternsByProfile.put(name, Pattern.compile(profile.exhaustedPattern()));
-            }
-        });
+        // fleetd #446: read live off `config` per lookup, cached by profile name — see
+        // LiveExhaustedPatterns's class doc for why this replaces the old compiled-once-at-startup
+        // map. A profile with no exhaustedPattern simply returns null here, so its workers keep
+        // today's completion-fallback behaviour unchanged.
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns liveExhaustedPatterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(() -> config.get().profiles());
         ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns = target -> sessions.roster().stream()
                 .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
                 .findFirst()
-                .map(session -> exhaustedPatternsByProfile.get(session.profile()))
+                .map(session -> liveExhaustedPatterns.patternFor(session.profile()))
                 .orElse(null);
+        // The startup coverage line still reports the boot-time snapshot only — it is printed once,
+        // here, and a reload no longer needs to change what it said; exhaustionDetectionArmed (via
+        // liveExhaustedPatterns.armed, wired into quarantineSource below) is what stays live.
+        Set<String> exhaustedConfiguredAtStartup = cfg.profiles().entrySet().stream()
+                .filter(e -> e.getValue().hasExhaustedPattern())
+                .map(Map.Entry::getKey)
+                .collect(Collectors.toCollection(LinkedHashSet::new));
         log.info("backend-exhausted classification (CB-578 stage A): {}",
-                exhaustedPatternCoverageLine(cfg.profiles().keySet(), exhaustedPatternsByProfile.keySet()));
+                exhaustedPatternCoverageLine(cfg.profiles().keySet(), exhaustedConfiguredAtStartup));
         // fleetd #201 Unit 5: classify a completion-fallback scrape that matches a profile's
         // configured backend-error refusal (a credential outage, a provider 5xx) as a backend error
-        // rather than handing it back as a real answer. Compiled once at startup, keyed by profile
-        // name, mirroring exhaustedPatternsByProfile above — a profile with no configured
-        // errorPattern is simply absent here, so CompletionResolver falls back to its built-in
-        // narrow {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:} compatibility pattern for that profile's targets
-        // (BackendErrorPatternLookup#legacy's contract — see backendErrorPatterns below).
+        // rather than handing it back as a real answer. Still compiled once at startup, keyed by
+        // profile name — unlike exhaustedPattern above (fleetd #446), errorPattern was left DEFERRED
+        // on purpose: the ticket that made exhaustedPattern hot scoped errorPattern/cooling-off out
+        // explicitly. A profile with no configured errorPattern is simply absent here, so
+        // CompletionResolver falls back to its built-in narrow {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:}
+        // compatibility pattern for that profile's targets (BackendErrorPatternLookup#legacy's
+        // contract — see backendErrorPatterns below).
         Map<String, Pattern> errorPatternsByProfile = new LinkedHashMap<>();
         cfg.profiles().forEach((name, profile) -> {
             if (profile.hasErrorPattern()) {
@@ -417,46 +449,20 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         // CREDENTIAL — not the profile name — so a profile sharing that credential (e.g. two models
         // on one OpenAI account) is refused too, not just the one that happened to report it. Reads
         // the profile config live off `config`, so a credentialId edit is hot: no restart needed.
-        //
-        // fleetd #175: this sink is now also the quarantine target for OpenCodeLauncher's
-        // model-mismatch check — it needs nothing profile-specific from the caller beyond `target`
-        // (a herdr terminal id) and `reason`, so reusing it here is exactly "the existing
-        // ExhaustionSink path", not a new mechanism.
-        //
-        // fleetd #234: that check fires from SessionAwareHandle.agentSessionId(), which runs during
-        // SessionManager.acquire() BEFORE this session is registered in sessions.roster() — so the
-        // roster-only lookup below used to find nothing, .ifPresent silently no-op'd, and the
-        // ERROR the check had just logged ("quarantining this profile's credential") was a lie:
-        // nothing was quarantined, and nothing said so. Two changes: (1) OpenCodeLauncher now
-        // passes its OWN profile name via ExhaustionSink's 3-arg overload — it already has the
-        // FleetConfig.Profile in hand and does not need the roster at all — used here as a
-        // fallback whenever the roster lookup misses; (2) if a profile still cannot be resolved
-        // (neither the roster nor the hint names a configured one), this logs loudly at ERROR
-        // instead of silently doing nothing — a control that cannot act must say so.
-        // fleetd #234, round 4: the 3-arg overload is now ExhaustionSink's single abstract method,
-        // so this is safely a lambda — there is no separate 2-arg overload left for it to bind to
-        // instead and silently drop profileHint (that was rounds 1-3's whole hazard).
-        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink = (target, reason, profileHint) -> {
-            String profileName = sessions.roster().stream()
-                    .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
-                    .findFirst()
-                    .map(MemberSession::profile)
-                    .orElse(profileHint);
-            FleetConfig.Profile profile = profileName == null ? null : config.get().profiles().get(profileName);
-            if (profile == null) {
-                log.error("quarantine requested for target '{}' ({}) but no profile could be "
-                                + "resolved — the target is not (yet) in the roster, and {} — "
-                                + "credential NOT quarantined (fleetd #234)",
-                        target, reason,
-                        profileHint == null ? "no profile hint was given"
-                                : "the hinted profile '" + profileHint + "' is not configured");
-                return;
-            }
-            String credentialId = profile.effectiveCredentialId();
-            quarantine.quarantine(credentialId);
-            log.warn("credential '{}' quarantined for {}s (profile '{}'): {}", credentialId,
-                    cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds(), profile.profile(), reason);
-        };
+        // fleetd #446 criterion 3: the backend text that triggered the most recent quarantine of
+        // each credential, so fleet_profiles can report WHY a limit was hit, not only that it was.
+        // Keyed by credential id — the same key BackendQuarantine's own remainingSeconds uses —
+        // and written at the one call site that actually quarantines (inside exhaustionSink below),
+        // so a reason can never be reported for a quarantine that never happened. Bounded the same
+        // way BackendQuarantine's own internal map is documented to be: by the number of distinct
+        // credentials ever exhausted, not by how often the config is edited.
+        Map<String, String> quarantineReasonByCredential = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+        // fleetd #446 follow-up (round 3): extracted into exhaustionSink(...) below — see that
+        // method's javadoc for the full fleetd #175/#234/#446 history this used to carry inline —
+        // so a dedicated test can drive the exact ExhaustionSink main() builds, not a hand-rebuilt
+        // copy of its shape.
+        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink = exhaustionSink(sessions, config, quarantine,
+                quarantineReasonByCredential, cfg);
         // fleetd #175: point the forwarding sink handed to OpenCodeLauncher above at the real one,
         // now that `sessions` exists to resolve target -> session -> profile.
         exhaustionSinkRef.set(exhaustionSink);
@@ -585,6 +591,16 @@ public final class Fleetd {
             heartbeat = null;
             heartbeatScheduler.shutdownNow();
         }
+        // fleetd #480: lead rollover. Opt-in; absent `leadRollover:` this is never constructed, so
+        // an upgraded daemon cannot silently acquire the ability to clear the lead's own pane.
+        // Unlike heartbeat above, this has no recurring scheduler of its own — nothing but an
+        // explicit confirm() call (wired to an MCP tool by a later ticket; nothing calls it yet)
+        // that passes every gate can ever schedule a roll. It does not take primaryRegistry: the
+        // lead terminal to roll comes from the caller of open()/confirm() (resolved by the MCP
+        // layer from the connection, the same way auth/CallerResolver#resolve builds a
+        // Principal.leader(...)), never from a single-slot lookup — see LeadRollover's class
+        // javadoc, fleetd #480 correction 2.
+        LeadRollover leadRollover = leadRollover(cfg, router.leadAgents(), config, leads);
         MessageService messages = new MessageService(router, injector, rendezvous, replyInbox,
                 pushLoop, metrics);
 
@@ -673,7 +689,7 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         // / BackendOutagePolicy would still be able to drift (e.g. a future edit to the credentialIdFor
         // closure in only one of the two places), exactly the shape #284 was.
         FleetMcp.QuarantineSource quarantineSource = quarantineSource(config, quarantine,
-                exhaustedPatternsByProfile);
+                liveExhaustedPatterns, quarantineReasonByCredential);
         FleetMcp.OutageSource outageSource = new FleetMcp.OutageSource(profile -> {
             var configured = config.get().profiles().get(profile);
             return configured == null ? null : configured.effectiveCredentialId();
@@ -695,7 +711,10 @@ public final class Fleetd {
                 // reach. Read from the SAME snapshot leadMailbox itself opened from (cfg.coordinator()),
                 // not the live config.get() — coordinator wiring is already boot-time-fixed (see
                 // leadMailbox above), so peers follows the same rule rather than half hot-reloading.
-                cfg.coordinator() == null ? List.of() : cfg.coordinator().peers());
+                cfg.coordinator() == null ? List.of() : cfg.coordinator().peers(),
+                // fleetd #480 Unit C: the executor behind fleet_handover — null whenever
+                // leadRollover: is not configured (see the leadRollover local above).
+                leadRollover);
 
         // CB-637: the receive half. Only constructed when a lead mailbox actually opened — with no
         // coordinator (or an unreachable one) there is nothing to deliver, so no scheduler is
@@ -805,16 +824,99 @@ public final class Fleetd {
     }
 
     /**
-     * fleetd #404: production source for quarantine reporting. Credential IDs are hot, but
-     * exhausted patterns are compiled once at startup for {@link CompletionResolver}, so the armed
-     * field must use that same compiled map until restart.
+     * fleetd #446 follow-up (round 3): the quarantine {@link ExhaustionSink} main() actually wires
+     * — extracted out of {@code main} for the same reason {@link #quarantineSource} below and
+     * {@link #usageLimitFixWarning}/{@link #usageLimitFixWarningNoModel} were. Round 2 pinned the
+     * WARNING text by having {@code FleetdUsageLimitFixWarningTest} call those two methods
+     * directly, but a mutation battery proved that left two gaps: nothing proved this sink's
+     * {@code log.warn} call actually uses either method (replacing the whole ternary with a
+     * literal string), and nothing proved it picks the right one for a profile WITH a configured
+     * {@code model:} versus one WITHOUT (swapping the ternary's two branches) — both mutations
+     * left round 2's full 1592-test suite green. {@code FleetdExhaustionSinkWarningTest} drives
+     * THIS factory's return value directly and asserts on the real text a {@code ListAppender}
+     * attached to this class's own logger captures — the only way to prove the caller, not just
+     * the two callees in isolation.
+     *
+     * <p>Behaviourally unchanged from the inline lambda this replaces:
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>fleetd #175: also the quarantine target for {@code OpenCodeLauncher}'s model-mismatch
+     *       check — it needs nothing profile-specific beyond {@code target}/{@code reason}, so
+     *       reusing this sink is the existing {@code ExhaustionSink} path, not a new mechanism;</li>
+     *   <li>fleetd #234 (round 4): resolves {@code target} to a profile via the live session
+     *       roster first, falling back to {@code profileHint} — {@code
+     *       SessionAwareHandle.agentSessionId()} fires this sink during {@code
+     *       SessionManager.acquire()}, <em>before</em> that session is registered, so the
+     *       roster-only lookup alone used to silently miss it. A profile resolved neither way
+     *       logs loudly at ERROR instead of doing nothing;</li>
+     *   <li>fleetd #446 criterion 3: writes {@code quarantineReasonByCredential} at the one call
+     *       site that actually quarantines, keyed by credential id — see the field's declaration
+     *       in {@code main} for the bound on its size.</li>
+     * </ul>
+     *
+     * <p>{@code cfg} is the startup {@link FleetConfig} snapshot, read only for {@code
+     * quarantineCooldownSeconds()} in the log text — a Cold key (see {@code ConfigRef}'s class
+     * doc), so reading it off the snapshot rather than {@code config.get()} makes no observable
+     * difference and matches what the inline version already did.
+     */
+    static ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink(SessionManager sessions, ConfigRef config, BackendQuarantine quarantine,
+            Map<String, String> quarantineReasonByCredential, FleetConfig cfg) {
+        return (target, reason, profileHint) -> {
+            String profileName = sessions.roster().stream()
+                    .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
+                    .findFirst()
+                    .map(MemberSession::profile)
+                    .orElse(profileHint);
+            FleetConfig.Profile profile = profileName == null ? null : config.get().profiles().get(profileName);
+            if (profile == null) {
+                log.error("quarantine requested for target '{}' ({}) but no profile could be "
+                                + "resolved — the target is not (yet) in the roster, and {} — "
+                                + "credential NOT quarantined (fleetd #234)",
+                        target, reason,
+                        profileHint == null ? "no profile hint was given"
+                                : "the hinted profile '" + profileHint + "' is not configured");
+                return;
+            }
+            String credentialId = profile.effectiveCredentialId();
+            quarantine.quarantine(credentialId);
+            quarantineReasonByCredential.put(credentialId, reason);
+            log.warn("credential '{}' quarantined for {}s (profile '{}'): {}", credentialId,
+                    cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds(), profile.profile(), reason);
+            // fleetd #446 criterion 2: name the fix, not just the fact — an operator reading this
+            // should not have to work out which of several configured models to touch.
+            String model = profile.model();
+            log.warn(model != null && !model.isBlank()
+                    ? usageLimitFixWarning(profile.profile(), model)
+                    : usageLimitFixWarningNoModel(profile.profile(), cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds()));
+        };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #404, superseded by fleetd #446: production source for quarantine reporting.
+     * Credential IDs were already hot; {@code exhaustedPattern} used to be compiled once at
+     * startup for {@link CompletionResolver}, so the armed field had to read that same frozen map
+     * until restart — the exact asymmetry #446 exists to close. Both {@code exhaustedPatternArmed}
+     * here and {@link CompletionResolver}'s own classification now read the ONE live {@link
+     * LiveExhaustedPatterns} instance ({@code exhaustedPatterns.armed}/{@code .patternFor}), so a
+     * reload that arms or disarms a profile's detection is visible to both at once — never two
+     * independently-updated copies that could disagree, the fleetd #404 rule this method used to
+     * violate on purpose and now upholds.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code modelFor} and {@code reasonFor} back fleetd #446 criterion 3 — {@code
+     * fleet_profiles}'s quarantined row naming which model a quarantined profile runs
+     * ({@code modelFor}, read live off {@code config} the same way {@code credentialIdFor} already
+     * is) and the backend text that triggered the most recent quarantine of that credential
+     * ({@code reasonFor}, backed by {@code reasonByCredential} — see its call site in {@code main}
+     * for where that map is written, at the one place a credential is actually quarantined).
      */
     static FleetMcp.QuarantineSource quarantineSource(ConfigRef config, BackendQuarantine quarantine,
-            Map<String, Pattern> startupExhaustedPatterns) {
+            LiveExhaustedPatterns exhaustedPatterns, Map<String, String> reasonByCredential) {
         return new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(profile -> {
             var configured = config.get().profiles().get(profile);
             return configured == null ? null : configured.effectiveCredentialId();
-        }, quarantine, profile -> startupExhaustedPatterns.containsKey(profile));
+        }, quarantine, exhaustedPatterns::armed, profile -> {
+            var configured = config.get().profiles().get(profile);
+            return configured == null ? null : configured.model();
+        }, reasonByCredential::get);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -833,6 +935,40 @@ public final class Fleetd {
      * with 0 errors and left all 1506 existing tests green before {@code
      * FleetdPatternCoverageLineTest} was added to catch exactly that swap.
      */
+    /**
+     * fleetd #446 follow-up: the criterion-2 WARNING text — "name the fix, not just the fact" —
+     * for a profile whose {@code model:} is configured. Extracted out of the {@code
+     * exhaustionSink} lambda the same way {@link #exhaustedPatternCoverageLine} was extracted out
+     * of {@code main}: the inline version compiled, ran, and read correctly, but nothing pinned
+     * its text, so a later edit could silently stop naming the fix and every test would stay
+     * green (measured: renaming the leading {@code "usage-limit fix:"} tag left all 1586
+     * pre-follow-up tests passing). {@link FleetdUsageLimitFixWarningTest} asserts on the return
+     * value of this method directly, which is exactly what the caller logs — {@code log.warn} is
+     * called with this method's result as a single, already-formatted argument, so the string a
+     * test sees here is byte-identical to what {@code fleetd.out} receives.
+     *
+     * <p>Deliberately asserts on three substrings, not the whole sentence (the profile name, the
+     * model name, and the literal {@code enabled: false} / {@code models.allow} action) — see that
+     * test's class doc for why a whole-sentence pin is the wrong granularity here.
+     */
+    static String usageLimitFixWarning(String profile, String model) {
+        return "usage-limit fix: profile '" + profile + "' runs model '" + model + "' — set "
+                + "`enabled: false` on that model's entry under models.allow in fleetd.yaml to "
+                + "stop new spawns landing on it (models: is hot, no restart needed); remove the "
+                + "line again once the subscription window resets";
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #446 follow-up: the {@link #usageLimitFixWarning} counterpart for a profile with no
+     * {@code model:} configured — {@code models.allow} gates by model name, so there is nothing
+     * for an operator to flip, and this says so instead of naming a fix that does not exist.
+     */
+    static String usageLimitFixWarningNoModel(String profile, Integer quarantineCooldownSeconds) {
+        return "usage-limit fix: profile '" + profile + "' has no model: configured, so "
+                + "models.allow cannot gate it by name — the " + quarantineCooldownSeconds
+                + "s quarantine above is the only thing keeping new spawns off it for now";
+    }
+
     static String exhaustedPatternCoverageLine(Set<String> allProfiles, Set<String> configuredProfiles) {
         return CompletionResolver.coverage("exhaustedPattern", CompletionResolver.UnsetMeaning.OFF,
                 allProfiles, configuredProfiles);
@@ -931,6 +1067,68 @@ public final class Fleetd {
                 .orElse(null);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #480: construct the {@link LeadRollover} executor only when {@code leadRollover:} is
+     * present at startup — the same presence gate {@code leadHeartbeat:} uses just above this
+     * call site in {@code main}. Extracted to its own factory, the same reason
+     * {@link #worktreeBranchLookup} and {@link #exhaustionSink} are: a unit test can call this
+     * directly with a fabricated {@link FleetConfig} (absent block ⇒ {@code null}, present block ⇒
+     * constructed) without needing the whole of {@code main}, and a source-text test on the real
+     * call site proves {@code main} still calls this factory rather than inlining a copy that could
+     * silently diverge.
+     *
+     * <p>The returned object reads every {@code leadRollover:} field fresh on each {@code open()}/
+     * {@code confirm()} call through {@code () -> config.get().leadRollover()} — see {@code
+     * ConfigRef}'s class doc Hot bullet and {@link FleetConfig.LeadRollover}'s javadoc for why that
+     * makes the block's fields HOT despite this presence gate being evaluated once, at startup.
+     *
+     * <p>Deliberately does NOT take {@link PrimaryRegistry}: fleetd #480 correction 2 found that a
+     * single-slot lookup lets one lead's {@code confirm()} clear a DIFFERENT lead's pane on a
+     * daemon with more than one labelled lead tab. The lead terminal to roll instead comes from
+     * whoever calls {@code open()}/{@code confirm()} — the later MCP-tool unit must resolve it from
+     * the connection and pass it in, never take it as a request field. See {@link LeadRollover}'s
+     * class javadoc.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>fleetd #480 follow-up:</strong> also builds the terminal → lead-workspace lookup
+     * {@link LeadRollover#open} needs to resolve a relative {@code handoverPath} against the
+     * CALLING lead's own {@code cwd} rather than the daemon's — the daemon and a lead's pane can
+     * have different working directories (this repo nests {@code fleetd/} inside its own root, so
+     * they already differ on this host). The lookup is terminal → lead name (via {@code
+     * liveLeadTerminals}) → that lead's {@code cwd} (via {@code config.get().fleet().leaders()}),
+     * and both hops are read LIVE on every call, never off a snapshot taken here: leads are
+     * discovered by a live tab scan ({@code LeadTabScanner}), so a map captured at construction
+     * time could be empty (no lead has been scanned yet) or stale (a lead added since).
+     *
+     * @param cfg               the startup config snapshot — read ONCE here, only to decide whether
+     *                          to construct the object at all, exactly like {@code
+     *                          cfg.leadHeartbeat()}
+     * @param leadAgents        the {@link AgentControl} instance that reaches the LEAD's pane (not
+     *                          {@code memberAgents}), normally {@code router.leadAgents()}
+     * @param config            the live {@link ConfigRef}, captured only inside the returned
+     *                          supplier and the workspace lookup — never dereferenced here
+     * @param liveLeadTerminals terminal id → lead NAME for every CURRENTLY recognised lead, normally
+     *                          the same {@code leads} supplier {@code main} already builds for
+     *                          {@code HerdrRouter}/{@link #leadSeatLookup} — never a value snapshot
+     * @return a constructed {@link LeadRollover}, or {@code null} when {@code leadRollover:} is
+     *         absent from the startup config
+     */
+    static LeadRollover leadRollover(FleetConfig cfg, AgentControl leadAgents, ConfigRef config,
+            Supplier<Map<String, String>> liveLeadTerminals) {
+        if (cfg.leadRollover() == null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        Function<String, String> leadWorkspace = terminal -> {
+            String leadName = liveLeadTerminals.get().get(terminal);
+            if (leadName == null) {
+                return null;
+            }
+            FleetConfig.Fleet fleet = config.get().fleet();
+            FleetConfig.Leader leader = fleet == null ? null : fleet.leaders().get(leadName);
+            return leader == null ? null : leader.cwd();
+        };
+        return new LeadRollover(leadAgents, () -> config.get().leadRollover(), leadWorkspace);
+    }
+
     /**
      * fleetd #176: per-profile factory for {@link FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource} — how many seats a
      * profile's own live LEAD session(s) hold on the same Claude subscription.
@@ -1475,6 +1673,28 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #474: the one place both the startup call (right after {@code cfg.validateAll()} in
+     * {@link #main}) and the reload call (wired into {@code config}'s {@code extraValidation} above,
+     * via a method reference to this method) go through, so the two can never drift into checking
+     * different things. Extracted only to give {@link ConfigRef}'s {@code Consumer<FleetConfig>}
+     * hook a {@code FleetConfig -> void} shape to bind to — {@link CharterToolSurface} itself still
+     * takes the raw charter map and knows nothing about {@code ConfigRef} or {@code Fleetd}.
+     *
+     * <p>Package-private so a test can call it directly the same way the other startup-report
+     * helpers above are tested, without needing to drive {@link #main} for a unit-level check;
+     * {@code FleetdStartupValidationTest} proves the startup call site, and {@code
+     * FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest} — by constructing {@code ConfigRef} with this
+     * exact method reference, the same way {@code main} does above — proves the reload call site.
+     * {@code dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRefTest} pins the same reload behaviour too, through an
+     * equivalent {@code Consumer<FleetConfig>} it builds locally (it cannot see this package-private
+     * method from {@code dev.ltms.fleet.config}).
+     */
+    static void assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(FleetConfig cfg) {
+        CharterToolSurface.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(
+                cfg.fleet() == null ? Map.of() : cfg.fleet().charters());
+    }
+
     /**
      * Poll herdr's {@code ping} until it answers or {@link #HERDR_WAIT_SECONDS} elapses (CB-504).
      *

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/auth/Authz.java

@@ -41,7 +41,16 @@ public final class Authz {
          */
         COORD_READ,
         /** Scrape the metrics endpoint. */
-        METRICS
+        METRICS,
+        /**
+         * Drive the lead-rollover executor ({@code fleet_handover}: open/confirm/cancel a
+         * self-replace, fleetd #480 Unit C). Primary-only, same as {@link #SPAWN}/{@link #STOP}/
+         * {@link #DRAIN} — and, unlike those, the terminal it acts on is never even an argument:
+         * {@code LeadRollover#open}/{@code #confirm} are always called with the CALLER's own
+         * connection-resolved terminal (see {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover}'s class
+         * javadoc, fleetd #480 correction 2), so a primary can only ever roll itself.
+         */
+        HANDOVER
     }
 
     /**
@@ -60,7 +69,7 @@ public final class Authz {
             // deliberately does NOT get these (CB-548), so it cannot tear down or stand up workers
             // even though it coordinates them; and a worker driving any of these would be a worker
             // escalating into the orchestrator role.
-            case SPAWN, STOP, DRAIN -> caller.isPrimary();
+            case SPAWN, STOP, DRAIN, HANDOVER -> caller.isPrimary();
 
             // Delivering a turn is open to the primary and the architect: an architect delegates
             // to workers (that is the role's point) but still has no lifecycle rights. A worker is

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRef.java

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Objects;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference;
+import java.util.function.Consumer;
 import java.util.function.Supplier;
 
 /**
@@ -51,7 +52,32 @@ import java.util.function.Supplier;
  *       filter) and by {@code fleet_profiles}/{@code GET /profiles} (via
  *       {@code PeerLauncher.disabledModels()}). Nothing about {@code models:} is baked into an
  *       object built at startup, so — unlike the deferred keys below — there is no frozen half left
- *       to report; it moved here from deferred rather than joining split.</li>
+ *       to report; it moved here from deferred rather than joining split. An existing profile's
+ *       {@code exhaustedPattern} (fleetd #446) joined this class the same way: it used to be
+ *       compiled once into {@code Fleetd.main}'s startup pattern map (see the Deferred bullet's old
+ *       wording, and {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns}'s class doc for the history), and is now read
+ *       live, cached by profile name, by both {@code CompletionResolver}'s classification (via
+ *       {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns.patternFor}) and {@code fleet_profiles}'s {@code
+ *       exhaustionDetectionArmed} (via {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns.armed}) — the one live object
+ *       both read, so a reload that arms or disarms a profile's usage-limit detection takes effect
+ *       on the next check with no restart. {@code errorPattern}, {@code exhaustedPattern}'s sibling
+ *       key for backend-error (not usage-limit) classification, was deliberately left OUT of this
+ *       fleetd #446 change and stays deferred below — the ticket scoped it out explicitly.
+ *       {@code leadRollover:} (fleetd #480) joined this class whole, the same shape as
+ *       {@code models:} above: {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover} holds a
+ *       {@code Supplier<FleetConfig.LeadRollover>} (the same {@code () -> config.get().x()} shape)
+ *       and reads {@code handoverPath}/{@code requireOperatorConfirm}/{@code maxDocAgeSeconds}/
+ *       {@code turnSettleSeconds}/{@code clearSettleSeconds}/{@code bootstrapText} fresh on every
+ *       {@code open()}/{@code confirm()} call (and on the deferred post-{@code confirm()}
+ *       continuation fleetd #480's correction added — see {@code LeadRollover}'s class doc) rather
+ *       than capturing them into fields at construction — unlike its closest
+ *       structural cousin {@code leadHeartbeat:}, whose {@code LeadHeartbeatLoop} bakes
+ *       {@code idleAfterNanos}/{@code backoffMs}/{@code quietNudgeCap} into final fields. The one
+ *       restart-only edge is structural, not a stale value: {@code Fleetd.java} decides whether to
+ *       construct the {@code LeadRollover} object at all off the startup snapshot (the same
+ *       presence gate {@code leadHeartbeat:} uses), so a block ADDED where it was absent at boot
+ *       needs a restart before anything exists to call — the same fact already true of adding a
+ *       brand-new {@code profiles:} entry.</li>
  *   <li><strong>Deferred</strong> — accepted into the new snapshot, but the wiring built at startup
  *       keeps the old value until a restart: {@code lifecycle:}, {@code leadHeartbeat:},
  *       {@code idleSleepGuard:} ({@code Fleetd.java} reads it once, at startup, to decide whether
@@ -81,15 +107,17 @@ import java.util.function.Supplier;
  *       (if any) simply keeps its old settings), adding or removing a profile (a new backend needs its own launcher,
  *       which is constructed once), <em>and an existing profile's launch settings</em> —
  *       {@code model}, {@code baseUrl}, {@code argv}, {@code env}, {@code mcpUrl},
- *       {@code exhaustedPattern} (CB-578 stage A — compiled once into {@code Fleetd.main}'s
- *       pattern map at startup), {@code errorPattern} (fleetd #201 Unit 5 — compiled once into
- *       {@code Fleetd.main}'s backend-error pattern map at startup, the same way),
+ *       {@code errorPattern} (fleetd #201 Unit 5 — compiled once into
+ *       {@code Fleetd.main}'s backend-error pattern map at startup; deliberately NOT made hot
+ *       alongside {@code exhaustedPattern} by fleetd #446 — that ticket scoped {@code errorPattern}
+ *       and cooling-off out explicitly),
  *       {@code ideProjectDir} / {@code ideOpenCommand} / {@code autoCompactWindow} (fleetd #323
  *       instance 1 — all three are read at spawn off the same frozen profile map and were missing
  *       from {@link #sameLaunchSettings}), and the rest of {@link #sameLaunchSettings}.
- *       {@code credentialId} (CB-578 stage B) is NOT on
- *       this list — it is read live off the config supplier at every quarantine check and
- *       exhaustion event, exactly like {@code weight} / {@code maxLoad}, so it is hot instead.
+ *       {@code credentialId} (CB-578 stage B) and {@code exhaustedPattern} (fleetd #446) are NOT on
+ *       this list — both are read live off the config supplier at every quarantine check and
+ *       exhaustion event, exactly like {@code weight} / {@code maxLoad}, so both are hot instead
+ *       (see the Hot bullet above for {@code exhaustedPattern}'s history).
  *       {@code HerdrPeerLauncher} takes {@code Map.copyOf(profiles)} at construction and resolves
  *       each spawn out of that copy, so those never reach a launch until the daemon restarts. A
  *       reload logs these rather than pretending they applied.</li>
@@ -153,17 +181,20 @@ import java.util.function.Supplier;
  *
  * <p><strong>The denominator, measured on 2026-09-04 (fleetd #330; recounted for fleetd #333);
  * recounted again for fleetd #362, again after {@code idleSleepGuard:} was added, again after
- * {@code models:} was added as deferred, and again for fleetd #422, which moved {@code models:}
- * from deferred to hot-excluded once its on/off half was read live everywhere.</strong>
- * {@code FleetConfig} has 25 top-level record components: 5 cold, 13 deferred, 3 split, 4
- * hot-excluded. Four of them are named nowhere in this file, and the reason is the same for all
- * four: {@code placement}, {@code memberCredentials}, {@code memberLoginShell} and {@code models}
- * are <strong>hot</strong> and correctly absent — all four are read live off {@code config.get()}
- * (placement through the {@code CompositePeerLauncher} supplier the Hot bullet names;
- * {@code memberCredentials}/{@code memberLoginShell} at spawn time, {@code Fleetd.java:198, 205, 729}
- * and {@code HerdrPeerLauncher#configuredMemberLoginShell}; {@code models} the same way, through the
- * Hot bullet's {@code models:} paragraph), so a reload takes effect on the next spawn (or, for
- * {@code models}, the next reported status) with no entry needed here.
+ * {@code models:} was added as deferred, again for fleetd #422, which moved {@code models:}
+ * from deferred to hot-excluded once its on/off half was read live everywhere, and again after
+ * {@code leadRollover:} was added (fleetd #480).</strong>
+ * {@code FleetConfig} has 26 top-level record components: 5 cold, 13 deferred, 3 split, 5
+ * hot-excluded. Five of them are named nowhere in this file, and the reason is the same for all
+ * five: {@code placement}, {@code memberCredentials}, {@code memberLoginShell}, {@code models} and
+ * {@code leadRollover} are <strong>hot</strong> and correctly absent — all five are read live off
+ * {@code config.get()} (placement through the {@code CompositePeerLauncher} supplier the Hot bullet
+ * names; {@code memberCredentials}/{@code memberLoginShell} at spawn time, {@code Fleetd.java:198,
+ * 205, 729} and {@code HerdrPeerLauncher#configuredMemberLoginShell}; {@code models} the same way,
+ * through the Hot bullet's {@code models:} paragraph; {@code leadRollover} through the Hot bullet's
+ * {@code leadRollover:} paragraph), so a reload takes effect on the next spawn (or, for
+ * {@code models}, the next reported status; for {@code leadRollover}, the next {@code open()}/
+ * {@code confirm()} call) with no entry needed here.
  * {@code health} and {@code coordinator} used to be a third kind — <strong>undecided</strong>, not
  * hot — until fleetd #330 added the <strong>split</strong> class above and gave them a home. A
  * reload touching either used to report a bare "config reloaded", which under-claimed; now it names
@@ -199,6 +230,24 @@ import java.util.function.Supplier;
  * <p>A reload that fails to parse or fails validation is also refused, and the previous config keeps
  * running. A config file being edited is normally read once mid-save; degrading a working daemon
  * because it caught a half-written file would be a bad trade.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>fleetd #474</strong> — {@link FleetConfig#validateAll()} is not the only gate startup
+ * runs before a config takes effect: {@code Fleetd.main} also calls {@code
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.CharterToolSurface#assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools}, right after {@code
+ * cfg.validateAll()}, to refuse a charter that names an MCP tool the server does not register. That
+ * check cannot live inside {@link FleetConfig} — {@code CharterToolSurface} lives in the {@code mcp}
+ * package because the canonical tool set ({@code FleetTool}) does, and config is loaded before the
+ * MCP server exists, so {@code FleetConfig} must not gain a dependency on {@code mcp}. {@link
+ * #reload} cannot import {@code mcp} either, for the same reason applied one layer up: {@code
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.config} is loaded before {@code dev.ltms.fleet.mcp} exists, same as {@code
+ * FleetConfig}. So this class accepts the check as a {@code Consumer<FleetConfig>} —
+ * {@link #extraValidation} — supplied by whichever caller already sits at the seam that holds both
+ * a loaded {@code FleetConfig} and the {@code mcp} package: {@code Fleetd.main}. It is invoked
+ * inside the same try/catch as {@code fresh.validateAll()}, so a charter that would have refused to
+ * boot refuses a reload too, and keeps the running config exactly like any other {@code
+ * validateAll()} failure. A ref built through the two-argument constructor (every test fixture that
+ * does not care about this check, and {@link #fixed}) gets a no-op consumer, so nothing outside
+ * {@code Fleetd.main} needs to know this hook exists.
  */
 public final class ConfigRef implements Supplier<FleetConfig> {
 
@@ -243,10 +292,27 @@ public final class ConfigRef implements Supplier<FleetConfig> {
 
     private final Path path;
     private final AtomicReference<FleetConfig> current;
+    private final Consumer<FleetConfig> extraValidation;
 
+    /** Equivalent to the three-argument constructor with a no-op {@code extraValidation}. */
     public ConfigRef(Path path, FleetConfig initial) {
+        this(path, initial, cfg -> { });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param extraValidation run on every {@link #reload} candidate, inside the same try/catch as
+     *                        {@code fresh.validateAll()} — see the class doc's fleetd #474 note.
+     *                        {@code Fleetd.main} passes {@code
+     *                        Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} (a package-private
+     *                        {@code FleetConfig -> void} adapter over {@code
+     *                        CharterToolSurface#assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools}), so a reload
+     *                        runs the same gate startup does without this class depending on the
+     *                        {@code mcp} package.
+     */
+    public ConfigRef(Path path, FleetConfig initial, Consumer<FleetConfig> extraValidation) {
         this.path = path;
         this.current = new AtomicReference<>(Objects.requireNonNull(initial, "initial config"));
+        this.extraValidation = Objects.requireNonNull(extraValidation, "extraValidation");
     }
 
     /** A fixed reference that never reloads — for tests and for wiring built from a config in code. */
@@ -348,6 +414,12 @@ public final class ConfigRef implements Supplier<FleetConfig> {
             // at all — see FleetConfig#validateAll's javadoc for why the fix is one reflective call,
             // not a longer hand-maintained list.
             fresh.validateAll();
+            // fleetd #474: validateAll() does not cover everything startup refuses on — the charter
+            // tool-surface check (Fleetd.main, right after cfg.validateAll()) lives outside
+            // FleetConfig on purpose (see this class's doc) and is supplied here as extraValidation.
+            // Same try/catch as validateAll() above, on purpose: either failure must refuse the whole
+            // reload and keep the running config the same way.
+            extraValidation.accept(fresh);
         } catch (RuntimeException e) {
             String msg = e.getMessage() == null ? e.toString() : e.getMessage();
             log.warn("config reload from {} refused, keeping the running config: {}", path, msg);
@@ -583,12 +655,16 @@ public final class ConfigRef implements Supplier<FleetConfig> {
      * {@link #sameLaunchSettings} because they are read <em>live</em>, not baked in at spawn — see
      * the class doc's <em>Hot</em> bullet. {@code weight} and {@code maxLoad} are read live by the
      * placement policy on every spawn; {@code credentialId} is read live by
-     * {@code CompositePeerLauncher} and the CB-578 stage B exhaustion sink. Nothing else is
+     * {@code CompositePeerLauncher} and the CB-578 stage B exhaustion sink; {@code exhaustedPattern}
+     * (fleetd #446) is read live, cached by profile name, by {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns} — see
+     * that class's doc and the class doc's <em>Hot</em> bullet for the history (it used to be
+     * compared here, deferred, like its sibling {@code errorPattern} still is). Nothing else is
      * excluded — see {@code sameLaunchSettingsComparesEveryProfileComponentOrExcludesIt} in
      * {@code ConfigRefProfileCoverageTest}, which enumerates every {@code Profile} record component
      * by reflection and fails the build if one is neither compared below nor named here.
      */
-    static final Set<String> LAUNCH_SETTINGS_EXCLUDED = Set.of("weight", "maxLoad", "credentialId");
+    static final Set<String> LAUNCH_SETTINGS_EXCLUDED =
+            Set.of("weight", "maxLoad", "credentialId", "exhaustedPattern");
 
     /**
      * Whether two versions of a profile would launch a peer identically.
@@ -625,13 +701,15 @@ public final class ConfigRef implements Supplier<FleetConfig> {
                 && Objects.equals(a.kind(), b.kind())
                 && Objects.equals(a.env(), b.env())
                 && Objects.equals(a.subscription(), b.subscription())
-                // CB-578 stage B: exhaustedPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's pattern map
-                // at startup (see ExhaustedPatternLookup wiring) — a reload never re-reads it, so a
-                // changed pattern must be reported as deferred, exactly like model/baseUrl/argv.
-                && Objects.equals(a.exhaustedPattern(), b.exhaustedPattern())
+                // fleetd #446: exhaustedPattern moved to LAUNCH_SETTINGS_EXCLUDED — it is now read
+                // live, cached by profile name, through LiveExhaustedPatterns (see that class's doc
+                // and ConfigRef's class doc Hot bullet), so it must NOT be compared here any more: a
+                // reload that changes only exhaustedPattern must report "config reloaded", not
+                // "these changes need a restart".
                 // fleetd #201 Unit 5: errorPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's backend-error
-                // pattern map at startup (see BackendErrorPatternLookup wiring), the same way
-                // exhaustedPattern is — a reload never re-reads it either.
+                // pattern map at startup (see BackendErrorPatternLookup wiring) — unlike its sibling
+                // exhaustedPattern above (fleetd #446), a reload still never re-reads it; fleetd #446
+                // scoped errorPattern out on purpose (see the class doc's Hot bullet).
                 && Objects.equals(a.errorPattern(), b.errorPattern())
                 // fleetd #323 instance 1: ideProjectDir and ideOpenCommand are read at spawn off the
                 // same frozen profile map as ideMcpUrl above (ClaudeCodeLauncher.java:267/269,

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfig.java

@@ -70,12 +70,14 @@ import java.util.regex.PatternSyntaxException;
  *                      {@code fixed} (default), {@code round-robin}, or {@code weighted}
  * @param auth          API authentication mode ({@code null} → {@code loopback-trust}, the
  *                      historical behaviour), CB-501
- * @param quarantineCooldownSeconds  how long a credential stays quarantined after a
+ * @param quarantineCooldownSeconds  the BASE cooldown a credential is quarantined for after a
  *                      {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED} classification (CB-578 stage B); {@code null}/{@code
- *                      <=0} → {@link #DEFAULT_QUARANTINE_COOLDOWN_SECONDS}. Baked once into the
- *                      {@code BackendQuarantine} built at startup, so it is DEFERRED: changing it
- *                      needs a restart, and a quarantine already running keeps whatever cooldown was
- *                      live when it started.
+ *                      <=0} → {@link #DEFAULT_QUARANTINE_COOLDOWN_SECONDS}. Since fleetd #466 this is
+ *                      only the first occurrence's length — a credential quarantined again shortly
+ *                      after this cooldown ends backs off further, up to a ceiling; see {@code
+ *                      BackendQuarantine}'s class doc. Baked once into the {@code BackendQuarantine}
+ *                      built at startup, so it is DEFERRED: changing it needs a restart, and a
+ *                      quarantine already running keeps whatever cooldown was live when it started.
  * @param memberCredentials deny-by-default policy (CB-596) for which of the operator's own host
  *                      credentials a spawned member's pane inherits. {@code null} (the block
  *                      omitted) blocks nothing — see {@link MemberCredentials}.
@@ -137,6 +139,9 @@ import java.util.regex.PatternSyntaxException;
  *                      fleetd #422 added the separate on/off question — whether a configured model
  *                      may be spawned onto RIGHT NOW ({@link Models.ModelEntry#enabled}) — enforced
  *                      live at spawn by {@code CompositePeerLauncher}, not here. See {@link Models}.
+ * @param leadRollover  opt-in lead rollover (fleetd #480): {@code null} ⇒ off, and no
+ *                      {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover} is constructed at all — an upgraded
+ *                      daemon never clears a lead's pane on its own initiative. See {@link LeadRollover}.
  */
 @JsonIgnoreProperties(ignoreUnknown = true)
 public record FleetConfig(
@@ -164,7 +169,23 @@ public record FleetConfig(
         String memberLoginShell,
         String memberSkills,
         IdleSleepGuard idleSleepGuard,
-        Models models) {
+        Models models,
+        LeadRollover leadRollover) {
+
+    /** Back-compat form before the {@code leadRollover:} block was added. */
+    public FleetConfig(Bind bind, String herdrSocket, String memberHerdrSocket, Map<String, Profile> profiles,
+                         Guard guard, String worktreeRoot, Lifecycle lifecycle, Integer spawnReadyTimeoutMs,
+                         Integer spawnReadyPollMs, Broker broker, Primary primary, Fleet fleet,
+                         LeadHeartbeat leadHeartbeat, Health health, String placement, Auth auth,
+                         ConfigReload configReload, Integer quarantineCooldownSeconds,
+                         MemberCredentials memberCredentials, Coordinator coordinator, String worktreeGroup,
+                         String memberLoginShell, String memberSkills, IdleSleepGuard idleSleepGuard,
+                         Models models) {
+        this(bind, herdrSocket, memberHerdrSocket, profiles, guard, worktreeRoot, lifecycle, spawnReadyTimeoutMs,
+                spawnReadyPollMs, broker, primary, fleet, leadHeartbeat, health, placement, auth,
+                configReload, quarantineCooldownSeconds, memberCredentials, coordinator, worktreeGroup,
+                memberLoginShell, memberSkills, idleSleepGuard, models, null);
+    }
 
     /** Back-compat form before the {@code models:} block was added. */
     public FleetConfig(Bind bind, String herdrSocket, String memberHerdrSocket, Map<String, Profile> profiles,
@@ -424,6 +445,12 @@ public record FleetConfig(
      *                       {@code null}/blank ⇒ the classification never fires for this profile and
      *                       today's completion-fallback behaviour is unchanged. Every backend words
      *                       its refusal differently, so this is config, never a vendor string in code.
+     *                       Read live off the current config through {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns},
+     *                       cached by profile name (fleetd #446), so it is HOT: an operator can arm
+     *                       or disarm this profile's usage-limit detection by editing this key and
+     *                       reloading, with no restart. Before fleetd #446 this was compiled once at
+     *                       daemon startup, the same deferred shape its sibling {@code errorPattern}
+     *                       (below) still has.
      * @param credentialId   the shared account this profile authenticates as (CB-578 stage B). Two
      *                       or more profiles setting the <em>same</em> non-blank value are quarantined
      *                       together by one {@code exhaustedPattern} classification on any one of
@@ -1302,6 +1329,104 @@ public record FleetConfig(
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Opt-in lead rollover (fleetd #480): a lead that decides it is ready to be replaced writes a
+     * handover file, then asks fleetd to clear its own pane and bootstrap a fresh session against
+     * that file. Config + a pure decision/verification layer only — see
+     * {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover} for the executor this block feeds, and
+     * {@code fleet_*} tool wiring is a later ticket.
+     *
+     * <p>Deliberately opt-in ({@code null} ⇒ off, exactly like {@code leadHeartbeat:}): absent this
+     * block, {@code Fleetd.java} never constructs a {@code LeadRollover} object at all, so an
+     * upgraded daemon cannot silently acquire the ability to clear the lead's own pane. Even once
+     * present, nothing but an explicit {@code confirm()} call can ever roll a pane — there is no
+     * timer, heartbeat or timeout anywhere in this feature that fires one on its own; see that
+     * class's javadoc.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>Hot, not deferred</strong> (see {@code ConfigRef}'s class doc): every field below
+     * is read live, through a {@code Supplier<LeadRollover>} the same {@code () -> config.get().x()}
+     * shape {@code fleet}/{@code placement}/{@code models} already use, so an edit to any of the
+     * six fields takes effect on the very next {@code open()}/{@code confirm()} call once the block
+     * has been present since startup — nothing here is captured into a frozen field the way {@code
+     * leadHeartbeat}'s {@code idleAfterNanos}/{@code backoffMs}/{@code quietNudgeCap} are. The one
+     * restart-only edge left is structural, not a stale value: {@code Fleetd.java} decides whether
+     * to construct the {@code LeadRollover} object at all off the startup snapshot, the same gate
+     * {@code leadHeartbeat:} uses, so a block ADDED where it was absent at boot needs a restart
+     * before anything exists to call — the same fact already true of adding a brand-new
+     * {@code profiles:} entry.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>{@code turnSettleSeconds} (fleetd #480 correction):</strong> {@code confirm()} is
+     * called FROM the calling lead's own turn, so its pane is still {@code WORKING} the instant
+     * {@code confirm()} validates every gate and schedules the roll. {@code
+     * dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover}'s deferred continuation waits up to this many seconds for
+     * that SAME pane to report an injectable state again — i.e. for the calling turn to actually
+     * end — before it sends {@code /clear} at all. If that wait times out, no {@code /clear} is
+     * ever sent: a lead that never goes idle is still doing real work, and clearing it would
+     * destroy live context. This is a separate wait from {@code clearSettleSeconds} below, which
+     * bounds the SECOND wait, for the pane to re-settle AFTER {@code /clear} has already gone out.
+     *
+     * @param handoverPath required when this block is present — where the handover file a fresh
+     *                     lead session reads must live. There is no sane non-null default for an
+     *                     operator-specific path, so a present block with a {@code null}/blank
+     *                     {@code handoverPath} is refused at config load; see
+     *                     {@link #validateLeadRollover()}. May be relative: {@code
+     *                     dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover#open} resolves a relative path against
+     *                     the CALLING lead's configured {@code fleet.leaders.<name>.cwd}, falling
+     *                     back to the daemon's own working directory ({@code
+     *                     System.getProperty("user.dir")}) when that lead has none configured —
+     *                     never against whatever directory the daemon process happens to have been
+     *                     started in for its own sake. An absolute path is used unchanged.
+     * @param requireOperatorConfirm default {@code true} — {@code confirm()} refuses unless the
+     *                     caller also passes {@code operatorConfirmed: true}. Set {@code false} to
+     *                     let the three handover-file checks alone gate the roll.
+     * @param maxDocAgeSeconds default 3600 — refuse a handover file whose modified time is older
+     *                     than this many seconds, so a stale leftover from an earlier rollover
+     *                     attempt can never be mistaken for a fresh one.
+     * @param turnSettleSeconds default 20 — bound on how long the deferred roll waits for the
+     *                     CALLING lead's own turn to end (its pane to report injectable again)
+     *                     before sending {@code /clear} at all. See the paragraph above.
+     * @param clearSettleSeconds default 20 — bound on how long to wait for the lead's pane to
+     *                     report an injectable state again after {@code /clear} before giving up. A
+     *                     roll that times out here never sends {@code bootstrapText}.
+     * @param bootstrapText default a sentence naming the RESOLVED handover path — sent to the
+     *                     lead's pane once it settles after {@code /clear}, telling the fresh
+     *                     session where to read the handover and carry on. Left {@code null} here
+     *                     when the operator configures none: the default sentence cannot be built
+     *                     at construction time because it must name the path AFTER {@code
+     *                     dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover#open} has resolved a relative {@code
+     *                     handoverPath} against the calling lead's workspace, which this record has
+     *                     no way to know — see {@link #bootstrapTextFor(String)}.
+     */
+    @JsonIgnoreProperties(ignoreUnknown = true)
+    public record LeadRollover(String handoverPath, Boolean requireOperatorConfirm,
+                                Integer maxDocAgeSeconds, Integer turnSettleSeconds,
+                                Integer clearSettleSeconds, String bootstrapText) {
+        public LeadRollover {
+            requireOperatorConfirm = requireOperatorConfirm == null || requireOperatorConfirm;
+            maxDocAgeSeconds = (maxDocAgeSeconds == null || maxDocAgeSeconds <= 0) ? 3600 : maxDocAgeSeconds;
+            turnSettleSeconds = (turnSettleSeconds == null || turnSettleSeconds <= 0) ? 20 : turnSettleSeconds;
+            clearSettleSeconds = (clearSettleSeconds == null || clearSettleSeconds <= 0) ? 20 : clearSettleSeconds;
+            bootstrapText = (bootstrapText == null || bootstrapText.isBlank()) ? null : bootstrapText;
+        }
+
+        /**
+         * The text actually sent to the lead's pane once it settles after {@code /clear}: the
+         * operator's configured {@link #bootstrapText} when one is set, otherwise the default
+         * sentence built from {@code resolvedHandoverPath}.
+         *
+         * @param resolvedHandoverPath the ABSOLUTE path {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover
+         *                              #open} already resolved — never the raw configured {@link
+         *                              #handoverPath}, which may still be relative and would name a
+         *                              directory the fresh lead session's own pane cannot resolve
+         */
+        public String bootstrapTextFor(String resolvedHandoverPath) {
+            return bootstrapText != null
+                    ? bootstrapText
+                    : "Fresh lead session: read the handover file at " + resolvedHandoverPath
+                        + " and carry on from there.";
+        }
+    }
+
     /**
      * Watch {@code fleetd.yaml} and re-read it when it changes (CB-559).
      *
@@ -1717,7 +1842,7 @@ public record FleetConfig(
             "lifecycle", "spawnReadyTimeoutMs", "spawnReadyPollMs", "broker", "primary", "fleet",
             "leadHeartbeat", "health", "placement", "auth", "configReload", "quarantineCooldownSeconds",
             "memberCredentials", "coordinator", "worktreeGroup", "memberLoginShell", "memberSkills",
-            "idleSleepGuard", "models");
+            "idleSleepGuard", "models", "leadRollover");
 
     /** Load and validate config from {@code path}. */
     public static FleetConfig load(Path path) {
@@ -2407,10 +2532,14 @@ public record FleetConfig(
         // empty Models would be a no-op for validateModels() either way, since an empty allow-list
         // already means "check nothing", so there is nothing to gain and one more null check to
         // avoid by leaving it exactly as configured.
+        // leadRollover is left as-is, like leadHeartbeat above: null is "off", and LeadRollover's
+        // own compact constructor defaults the fields of a block that IS present. Defaulting it
+        // here would construct a LeadRollover object (via Fleetd.java's presence gate) for every
+        // config that never mentioned it.
         return new FleetConfig(b, herdrSocket, memberHerdrSocket, profiles, g, worktreeRoot, l, timeout, pollMs,
                 broker, primary, f, leadHeartbeat, health, placementOrDefault, a, configReload,
                 quarantineCooldown, mc, coordinator, worktreeGroup, memberLoginShell, memberSkills,
-                idleSleepGuard, models);
+                idleSleepGuard, models, leadRollover);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -2493,6 +2622,26 @@ public record FleetConfig(
                 + "lead tabs cannot be confused.");
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Reject a present {@code leadRollover:} block with no (or a blank) {@code handoverPath}
+     * (fleetd #480). There is no sane non-null default for an operator-specific file path, unlike
+     * every other field on {@link LeadRollover}, which {@link LeadRollover}'s own compact
+     * constructor already defaults — so this is the one field that must be refused at load rather
+     * than silently defaulted to something that would never match a real handover file.
+     *
+     * @throws IllegalStateException when {@code leadRollover} is present but {@code handoverPath}
+     *                               is {@code null} or blank
+     */
+    public void validateLeadRollover() {
+        if (leadRollover == null) {
+            return;
+        }
+        if (leadRollover.handoverPath() == null || leadRollover.handoverPath().isBlank()) {
+            throw new IllegalStateException("refusing to start: leadRollover.handoverPath is "
+                    + "required when leadRollover: is present.");
+        }
+    }
+
     /** Case-insensitive prefix test that tolerates a null/blank label. */
     private static boolean startsWithIgnoreCase(String label, String prefix) {
         if (label == null || prefix == null || prefix.isBlank()) {

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/HerdrClient.java

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ package dev.ltms.fleet.herdr;
 import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
 
 /**
- * Client face onto the herdr daemon (protocol 14, herdr 0.7.0).
+ * Client face onto the herdr daemon (protocol 19, herdr 0.8.0).
  *
  * <p>This is the ONLY thing in {@code fleetd} that speaks to herdr. Every method
  * maps to a herdr JSON-RPC call over its Unix domain socket. Requests are

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/HerdrCodec.java

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.node.ObjectNode;
 import java.nio.charset.StandardCharsets;
 
 /**
- * Wire codec for herdr's newline-delimited JSON-RPC (protocol 14).
+ * Wire codec for herdr's newline-delimited JSON-RPC (protocol 19).
  *
  * <p>Split out from the socket so the framing rules — the ones that actually bit us
  * during the spike (id MUST be a string; response carries {@code result} or

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/LiveExhaustedPatterns.java

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Objects;
+import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
+import java.util.function.Supplier;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #446: the single live source for "is {@code exhaustedPattern} configured for this
+ * profile, and what does it compile to". Read fresh off the config supplier on every call — the
+ * same reason {@code CompositePeerLauncher#models0} is a live supplier read rather than a value
+ * captured at construction (see that class's doc) — so an operator can arm or disarm usage-limit
+ * detection for a profile by editing {@code exhaustedPattern} and reloading, with no restart.
+ *
+ * <p>Before this class, {@code exhaustedPattern} was compiled once into a {@code Map<String,
+ * Pattern>} built inside {@code Fleetd.main} at startup ({@code ConfigRef}'s class doc used to
+ * list it under <em>Deferred</em>, CB-578 stage A) — the asymmetry fleetd #446 exists to close:
+ * an operator could turn a model off at runtime ({@code models.allow}'s {@code enabled: false},
+ * hot since fleetd #422) but could not arm the detector that would tell them to, without a
+ * restart. That was backwards for a feature whose whole point is to react while the fleet runs.
+ *
+ * <p>{@link #patternFor} is what {@link CompletionResolver} enforces on (via the {@link
+ * ExhaustedPatternLookup} production wiring in {@code Fleetd.main}); {@link #armed} is what
+ * {@code fleet_profiles}/{@code GET /profiles} report as {@code exhaustionDetectionArmed}. Both
+ * read this ONE object, so the report can never disagree with the behaviour — the same rule
+ * {@code CompositePeerLauncher#modelGateState()}'s javadoc states for the model gate's own
+ * armed/off pair (fleetd #404): "armed" and "which models are off" must come from one read of the
+ * same accessor the gate enforces on.
+ *
+ * <h2>Cache eviction</h2>
+ * Cached by profile NAME, not by pattern text. A {@code Map<String, Pattern>} keyed by the
+ * pattern STRING would grow by one entry per distinct regex ever typed for any profile across the
+ * daemon's uptime — unbounded in practice, because tuning a regex to match a backend's exact
+ * wording is exactly the kind of edit an operator makes several times while getting it right, and
+ * every edit-and-reload cycle would leave the previous attempt's compiled {@link Pattern} behind
+ * forever. Keyed by profile name instead, this cache holds at most one entry per profile name that
+ * has ever been looked up — and that key space is bounded by the (small, human-authored) set of
+ * configured profiles, which changes only on a restart: adding or removing a profile is itself a
+ * deferred key (a new backend needs its own launcher, built once — see {@code ConfigRef}'s class
+ * doc), so profile names do not churn the way pattern text does. Re-editing an EXISTING profile's
+ * {@code exhaustedPattern} — the case this class exists to make hot — simply overwrites that
+ * profile's one cache entry; it never adds a new one.
+ */
+public final class LiveExhaustedPatterns {
+
+    /** A compiled pattern paired with the source string it was compiled from, for change detection. */
+    private record Cached(String source, Pattern compiled) {
+    }
+
+    private final Supplier<Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile>> profiles;
+    private final ConcurrentHashMap<String, Cached> cache = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+
+    public LiveExhaustedPatterns(Supplier<Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile>> profiles) {
+        this.profiles = Objects.requireNonNull(profiles, "profiles");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The compiled {@code exhaustedPattern} currently configured for {@code profileName}, or
+     * {@code null} when that profile is unknown or has none configured. Recompiles only when the
+     * live pattern text differs from what is cached for this profile name; {@code
+     * FleetConfig#rejectMalformedProfilePatterns} already refuses a config (at load and at reload)
+     * whose {@code exhaustedPattern} does not compile, so this is not expected to throw in
+     * production — it is not defended against here for that reason, the same trust
+     * {@code CompositePeerLauncher#models0} places in config validation having already run.
+     */
+    public Pattern patternFor(String profileName) {
+        if (profileName == null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        FleetConfig.Profile profile = profiles.get().get(profileName);
+        if (profile == null || !profile.hasExhaustedPattern()) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        String source = profile.exhaustedPattern();
+        Cached cached = cache.get(profileName);
+        if (cached != null && cached.source().equals(source)) {
+            return cached.compiled();
+        }
+        Cached fresh = new Cached(source, Pattern.compile(source));
+        cache.put(profileName, fresh);
+        return fresh.compiled();
+    }
+
+    /** Whether {@code profileName} currently has a usage-limit pattern configured (live). */
+    public boolean armed(String profileName) {
+        return patternFor(profileName) != null;
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/lead/LeadRollover.java

@@ -0,0 +1,649 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.lead;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentStatus;
+import org.slf4j.Logger;
+import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
+
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.io.UncheckedIOException;
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.UUID;
+import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+import java.util.function.Consumer;
+import java.util.function.Function;
+import java.util.function.LongSupplier;
+import java.util.function.Supplier;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #480: replace a lead session that has decided it is ready to be rolled over, without an
+ * operator doing it by hand. A lead writes a handover file, calls {@link #open}, and then — once
+ * every gate ({@link #confirm}'s own checks) has passed — a deferred, single-shot continuation
+ * clears the lead's own pane and bootstraps a fresh session against that file.
+ *
+ * <p>This is the executor only. Nothing in this ticket wires an MCP tool onto {@link #open}/
+ * {@link #confirm}/{@link #cancel} — that is a separate, later unit; until it lands, nothing calls
+ * this class at all.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>{@code confirm()} cannot roll inline — a fleetd #480 correction.</strong> The first
+ * version of this class called {@code agents.send(lead, "/clear")} directly from inside {@code
+ * confirm()}, then polled for the pane to become injectable again. That is wrong, because {@code
+ * confirm()} is called BY the lead, FROM the lead's own turn: the lead's pane is {@code WORKING}
+ * for the whole duration of that call and cannot possibly report injectable until {@code confirm()}
+ * itself returns. The poll always timed out — but only after the {@code /clear} had already been
+ * sent and queued in the pane, where it fired the instant the turn ended anyway. The result was the
+ * worst outcome this feature can produce: a silently destroyed lead context with no fresh session
+ * ever started, and a refusal return value that claimed nothing had happened.
+ *
+ * <p>The fix: {@link #confirm} validates every gate, then does no I/O against the lead's own pane
+ * at all — it only records that the request is approved and hands a one-shot continuation to
+ * {@code continuationRunner} before returning. That continuation is what actually touches the pane,
+ * once the calling turn has ended, in this order:
+ * <ol>
+ *   <li>wait for the lead's own pane to report a real turn boundary — {@code IDLE} or {@code
+ *       DONE}, never merely {@code BLOCKED} — i.e. wait for the very {@code confirm()} call that
+ *       approved this roll to finish its turn — bounded by {@code turnSettleSeconds}. <strong>If
+ *       this never happens, nothing else in this list runs: no {@code /clear} is ever sent.</strong>
+ *       A lead that never goes idle is a lead still doing real work, and clearing it would throw
+ *       away live context — exactly the failure this correction exists to prevent.</li>
+ *   <li>{@code agents.send(lead, "/clear")}</li>
+ *   <li>wait for {@code /clear} to be picked up and settle, bounded by {@code clearSettleSeconds}
+ *       (fleetd #489: no longer a plain re-check of the same boundary — {@code /clear} starts no
+ *       turn of its own, so this instead nudges the submit keystroke while no pickup has been seen,
+ *       then waits for a real {@code WORKING} → {@code IDLE}/{@code DONE} boundary once one has;
+ *       see {@link #waitForClearPickupAndSettle})</li>
+ *   <li>{@code agents.send(lead, cfg.bootstrapTextFor(p.handoverPath()))}</li>
+ * </ol>
+ * A {@link #confirm} that returns {@link RollDecision#approved()} therefore means <em>"every gate
+ * passed and the roll is scheduled"</em>, never <em>"the pane has been cleared"</em> — the pane may
+ * still be mid-turn, possibly for a long time, when the caller gets that answer back.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>The safety invariant survives this change, restated precisely.</strong> The ticket
+ * that first defined this class required "no timer, no scheduler, no background thread" so that
+ * nothing but an explicit {@link #confirm} call could ever cause a {@code /clear}. That invariant
+ * is about INITIATIVE, not about synchronicity, and this correction keeps it: {@code
+ * continuationRunner} launches a single-shot task that exists only because one specific,
+ * already-approved {@link #confirm} call created it — it is not recurring, it is not started at
+ * construction time or on any schedule, and no two invocations of it ever share state. A recurring
+ * heartbeat or timer that could decide on its own initiative to roll a pane is still, and will
+ * always be, absent from this class. <strong>Nothing but an explicit {@link #confirm} call that
+ * passes every gate can ever cause a {@code /clear} — that call may simply finish its own work
+ * slightly later than the method return, as a continuation of the same approved request, rather
+ * than entirely inside the method body.</strong>
+ *
+ * <p><strong>Identity is resolved by the caller, never looked up here — a second fleetd #480
+ * correction.</strong> The first version resolved the pane to clear via {@code
+ * PrimaryRegistry#primaryTerminal()}. That is correct for a background loop with no caller (see
+ * {@code dev.ltms.fleet.msg.LeadHeartbeatLoop}), but wrong here and a violation of this project's
+ * own charter invariant 3 — "identity comes from the connection, never an argument." This daemon
+ * can hold more than one labelled lead tab (see {@code LeadLauncher}'s fleetd #359 two-reading
+ * dead-tab cleanup), so a single-slot lookup lets lead X's {@link #confirm} clear lead Y's pane: an
+ * unrecoverable loss of someone else's context, and a different lead's context at that. Both
+ * {@link #open} and {@link #confirm} now take the lead's terminal id as a parameter instead —
+ * {@link #open} stores it on the {@link PendingRollover}, and {@link #confirm} refuses with {@link
+ * RefusalReason#NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER} unless the caller's terminal matches the one {@link #open}
+ * recorded. <strong>The terminal id passed to both methods must come from the MCP layer's own
+ * connection-based caller resolution — the same source {@code auth/CallerResolver#resolve} uses to
+ * build a {@code Principal.leader(...)} (see its use of {@code ConnectionIdentity.Caller#terminal})
+ * — never a value the client supplies or chooses.</strong> The later MCP-tool unit that wires
+ * {@link #open}/{@link #confirm} must pass the resolved caller terminal, not a request field.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>A relative {@code handoverPath} resolves against the CALLING lead's workspace, never
+ * the daemon's own cwd — a fleetd #480 follow-up.</strong> The daemon and a lead's own pane can
+ * have different working directories (this repo nests {@code fleetd/} inside its own root, so the
+ * daemon's cwd and {@code fleet.leaders.<name>.cwd} already differ on this host). {@link #open}
+ * resolves {@code cfg.handoverPath()} to an ABSOLUTE path exactly once — against {@code
+ * leadWorkspace.apply(leadTerminal)} when that lookup returns a non-null, non-blank workspace, and
+ * against {@code System.getProperty("user.dir")} otherwise (the same fallback {@code
+ * LeadLauncher#launch} already uses for a lead with no configured {@code cwd}) — and stores only
+ * that absolute path on {@link PendingRollover}. Every later read of {@code
+ * PendingRollover#handoverPath()} (the freshness/exists/empty checks in {@link #checkHandover},
+ * the value {@code FleetMcp} hands back to the lead in the {@code open} response so it knows where
+ * to WRITE the file, and {@link FleetConfig.LeadRollover#bootstrapTextFor} which names it in the
+ * text typed into the fresh session) therefore already sees the resolved absolute form and never
+ * needs to resolve anything itself.
+ */
+public final class LeadRollover {
+
+    private static final Logger log = LoggerFactory.getLogger(LeadRollover.class);
+
+    /** Poll interval while waiting for the lead's pane to settle after {@code /clear}. */
+    static final long SETTLE_POLL_MS = 250;
+
+    /**
+     * How many consecutive not-yet-picked-up polls {@link #waitForClearPickupAndSettle} allows
+     * before releasing rather than wedging the roll — the same constant and the same
+     * release-not-wedge choice {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.Injector} already makes for its own
+     * post-turn {@code /clear} housekeeping (fleetd #306). <strong>This bounds the number of
+     * consecutive polls, not the number of nudges:</strong> the first {@code PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS - 1}
+     * of those polls each send a nudge, and the {@code PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS}th releases instead of
+     * nudging again — so 8 polls produce 7 nudges, not 8.
+     */
+    static final int PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS = 8;
+
+    /**
+     * One request opened by {@link #open}, pending its {@link #confirm} (or {@link #cancel}).
+     *
+     * @param leadTerminal the lead pane that opened this request — the only terminal that may
+     *                     later {@link #confirm} it (see {@link RefusalReason#NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER})
+     * @param handoverPath the ABSOLUTE, resolved handover path — never the raw configured value,
+     *                     which may have been relative. {@link #open} resolves it once, against the
+     *                     calling lead's workspace, before storing it here; see this class's
+     *                     javadoc. This is the value the MCP layer hands back to the lead as
+     *                     "write your file here", so callers may rely on it always being absolute.
+     */
+    public record PendingRollover(String token, String leadTerminal, String handoverPath,
+                                   long requestedAtMillis) {}
+
+    /** Which check refused a {@link #confirm} call, named so a caller can act on it. */
+    public enum RefusalReason {
+        /** {@code leadRollover:} is not configured — absent at construction, or removed since. */
+        NOT_CONFIGURED,
+        /** {@code token} names no pending request: never opened, already confirmed, or cancelled. */
+        UNKNOWN_TOKEN,
+        /**
+         * The caller's terminal does not match the terminal that {@link #open} recorded for this
+         * token. Only the lead that opened a request may confirm it (fleetd #480 correction 2).
+         */
+        NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER,
+        /** {@code requireOperatorConfirm: true} and the caller passed {@code operatorConfirmed: false}. */
+        OPERATOR_NOT_CONFIRMED,
+        /** The handover file does not exist. */
+        HANDOVER_MISSING,
+        /** The handover file exists but is empty. */
+        HANDOVER_EMPTY,
+        /**
+         * The handover file's modified time is not after {@link #open}'s request timestamp, or is
+         * older than {@code maxDocAgeSeconds}.
+         */
+        HANDOVER_STALE
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The outcome of a {@link #confirm} call. {@link #approved()} means every gate passed and the
+     * roll has been handed to a one-shot continuation — <strong>not</strong> that the pane has been
+     * cleared; the continuation may still be waiting for the calling turn to end when this returns.
+     * Whether the deferred roll itself later goes on to clear the pane, refuse for never going
+     * idle, or refuse for never re-settling after {@code /clear} is logged only (see this class's
+     * javadoc) — there is deliberately no synchronous caller left by that point to hand a result to.
+     */
+    public record RollDecision(boolean accepted, RefusalReason reason, String detail) {
+        static RollDecision approved() {
+            return new RollDecision(true, null, "confirmed; the roll will run once the calling turn ends");
+        }
+
+        static RollDecision refused(RefusalReason reason, String detail) {
+            return new RollDecision(false, reason, detail);
+        }
+    }
+
+    private final AgentControl agents;
+    private final Supplier<FleetConfig.LeadRollover> configSupplier;
+    /**
+     * Terminal id → that lead's configured workspace directory (their {@code
+     * fleet.leaders.<name>.cwd}), or {@code null} when the terminal names no currently-recognised
+     * lead. {@link #open} calls this to resolve a relative {@code handoverPath} — see this class's
+     * javadoc. Required: there is no sane default that would not silently reintroduce the
+     * daemon-cwd bug this parameter exists to fix.
+     */
+    private final Function<String, String> leadWorkspace;
+    private final LongSupplier nowMillis;
+    private final Runnable settleSleeper;
+    /**
+     * Launches the post-{@code confirm()} continuation. Production uses a single unstarted virtual
+     * thread per confirmed request — see this class's javadoc for why that is a single-shot task,
+     * not a background scheduler. Tests inject {@code Runnable::run} to make the continuation run
+     * synchronously and deterministically on the calling thread.
+     */
+    private final Consumer<Runnable> continuationRunner;
+    private final Map<String, PendingRollover> pending = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+
+    /** Production constructor — wall clock, real sleep between settle polls, a real virtual thread. */
+    public LeadRollover(AgentControl agents, Supplier<FleetConfig.LeadRollover> configSupplier,
+                         Function<String, String> leadWorkspace) {
+        this(agents, configSupplier, leadWorkspace, System::currentTimeMillis,
+                () -> sleepUninterruptibly(SETTLE_POLL_MS),
+                r -> Thread.ofVirtual().name("lead-rollover-continuation-").start(r));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Full constructor — an injectable wall-clock supplier, settle-poll sleeper, and continuation
+     * runner, for tests. {@code nowMillis} MUST be a wall-clock source (e.g. {@code
+     * System.currentTimeMillis()}), never {@code System.nanoTime()}: the freshness check compares
+     * against a file's modified time, which only a wall clock is comparable to, and {@code
+     * nanoTime} freezes while the host sleeps (fleetd #386).
+     */
+    LeadRollover(AgentControl agents, Supplier<FleetConfig.LeadRollover> configSupplier,
+                 Function<String, String> leadWorkspace, LongSupplier nowMillis,
+                 Runnable settleSleeper, Consumer<Runnable> continuationRunner) {
+        this.agents = agents;
+        this.configSupplier = configSupplier;
+        this.leadWorkspace = leadWorkspace;
+        this.nowMillis = nowMillis;
+        this.settleSleeper = settleSleeper;
+        this.continuationRunner = continuationRunner;
+    }
+
+    private static void sleepUninterruptibly(long ms) {
+        try {
+            Thread.sleep(ms);
+        } catch (InterruptedException e) {
+            Thread.currentThread().interrupt();
+            // preserve the interrupt flag but continue — this poll loop should not be aborted by an
+            // interrupt that was not meant for it.
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The lead says it is ready to be replaced. Generates a token and records the resolved
+     * handover path, this moment's wall-clock timestamp (the baseline {@link #confirm} checks the
+     * handover file's modified time against), and {@code leadTerminal} — only that exact terminal
+     * may later {@link #confirm} this token.
+     *
+     * @param leadTerminal the calling lead's terminal id, resolved by the MCP layer from the
+     *                     connection (see this class's javadoc) — never a client-supplied value
+     * @param reason       free-text audit note (logged only; not otherwise interpreted or stored)
+     * @throws IllegalStateException   if {@code leadRollover:} is not configured
+     * @throws IllegalArgumentException if {@code leadTerminal} is null or blank
+     */
+    public PendingRollover open(String leadTerminal, String reason) {
+        FleetConfig.LeadRollover cfg = configSupplier.get();
+        if (cfg == null) {
+            throw new IllegalStateException("leadRollover: is not configured");
+        }
+        if (leadTerminal == null || leadTerminal.isBlank()) {
+            throw new IllegalArgumentException("leadTerminal is required — it must be resolved from "
+                    + "the caller's connection, never accepted as a client-chosen argument");
+        }
+        String token = UUID.randomUUID().toString();
+        long requestedAt = nowMillis.getAsLong();
+        String resolvedPath = resolveHandoverPath(cfg.handoverPath(), leadTerminal);
+        PendingRollover p = new PendingRollover(token, leadTerminal, resolvedPath, requestedAt);
+        pending.put(token, p);
+        if (resolvedPath.equals(cfg.handoverPath())) {
+            log.info("lead-rollover: open token={} lead={} handoverPath={} reason={}",
+                    token, leadTerminal, resolvedPath, reason);
+        } else {
+            // The configured value was relative (or merely un-normalized) and resolved to a
+            // different string — log both, so an operator reading this line can see which
+            // directory the daemon actually looked in, not just the value it was given.
+            log.info("lead-rollover: open token={} lead={} configuredHandoverPath={} "
+                            + "resolvedHandoverPath={} reason={}",
+                    token, leadTerminal, cfg.handoverPath(), resolvedPath, reason);
+        }
+        return p;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Resolve {@code configured} to an absolute path exactly once, here, so nothing downstream
+     * ({@link #checkHandover}, the MCP layer's {@code open} response, {@link
+     * FleetConfig.LeadRollover#bootstrapTextFor}) ever has to resolve — or worse, silently
+     * mis-resolve — a relative path again.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>The return value is GUARANTEED absolute, not merely usually absolute.</strong>
+     * {@code leadWorkspace.apply(leadTerminal)} returns an operator-configured {@code
+     * fleet.leaders.<name>.cwd} string, and nothing forces an operator to write an absolute one —
+     * a relative {@code cwd} resolved with plain {@link Path#resolve} would still yield a relative
+     * result, silently reopening the exact bug this class exists to fix (every later reader back to
+     * interpreting an ambiguous string against ITS OWN working directory). {@link
+     * Path#toAbsolutePath()} closes that: it resolves any remaining relative path against {@code
+     * user.dir} (the JVM's own cwd), which is the correct base for an operator-written path the
+     * daemon process itself is meant to interpret, exactly like the {@code user.dir} fallback used
+     * below. Applying it unconditionally on both branches means the ALREADY-absolute branch stays a
+     * no-op (an absolute path is unaffected by {@code toAbsolutePath()}) while the relative-{@code
+     * cwd} branch above is closed the same way.
+     *
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>already absolute → returned unchanged (normalized)</li>
+     *   <li>relative → resolved against {@code leadWorkspace.apply(leadTerminal)} when that is
+     *       non-null and non-blank; otherwise against {@code System.getProperty("user.dir")} — the
+     *       same fallback {@code LeadLauncher#launch} uses for a lead with no configured {@code
+     *       cwd}. If {@code leadWorkspace}'s own answer is itself relative (an operator wrote a
+     *       relative {@code cwd:}), the result is finished off against the daemon's own
+     *       {@code user.dir} — see the paragraph above.</li>
+     * </ul>
+     */
+    private String resolveHandoverPath(String configured, String leadTerminal) {
+        Path path = Path.of(configured);
+        if (path.isAbsolute()) {
+            // toAbsolutePath() is a no-op for an already-absolute path — kept here anyway so both
+            // branches call the exact same guarantee, rather than one branch relying on
+            // isAbsolute() alone to already imply what toAbsolutePath() enforces.
+            return path.toAbsolutePath().normalize().toString();
+        }
+        String workspace = leadWorkspace.apply(leadTerminal);
+        Path base = (workspace == null || workspace.isBlank())
+                ? Path.of(System.getProperty("user.dir"))
+                : Path.of(workspace);
+        return base.resolve(path).toAbsolutePath().normalize().toString();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Validate every gate, then — if and only if all of them pass — hand a one-shot continuation
+     * that performs the actual roll to {@code continuationRunner} and return. <strong>This method
+     * never itself sends anything to the lead's pane</strong> — see this class's javadoc for why
+     * (it is called FROM the lead's own turn, so the pane cannot possibly be injectable yet).
+     *
+     * <p>Order: token lookup, then ownership ({@code callerTerminal} must match the terminal
+     * {@link #open} recorded — {@link RefusalReason#NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER}), then the
+     * operator-confirmation gate, then the three handover-file checks (exists, not empty, fresh —
+     * see {@link #checkHandover}). The first failing check is returned and {@code token} stays
+     * pending (so a caller can fix the problem — e.g. rewrite the handover file — and retry with
+     * the same token); it is consumed only once every gate passes and the continuation is launched.
+     *
+     * @param callerTerminal    the CALLING lead's terminal id, resolved by the MCP layer from the
+     *                          connection — never a client-supplied value (see this class's javadoc)
+     * @param token             the token {@link #open} returned
+     * @param operatorConfirmed the caller's answer to "has an operator confirmed this roll" —
+     *                          consulted only when the live config's {@code requireOperatorConfirm}
+     *                          is true
+     */
+    public RollDecision confirm(String callerTerminal, String token, boolean operatorConfirmed) {
+        FleetConfig.LeadRollover cfg = configSupplier.get();
+        if (cfg == null) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.NOT_CONFIGURED, "leadRollover: is not configured");
+        }
+        PendingRollover p = pending.get(token);
+        if (p == null) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.UNKNOWN_TOKEN,
+                    "token " + token + " names no pending rollover request");
+        }
+        if (!p.leadTerminal().equals(callerTerminal)) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER,
+                    "token " + token + " was opened by a different lead terminal");
+        }
+        if (cfg.requireOperatorConfirm() && !operatorConfirmed) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.OPERATOR_NOT_CONFIRMED,
+                    "requireOperatorConfirm is true and operatorConfirmed was false");
+        }
+
+        RollDecision docCheck = checkHandover(p, cfg);
+        if (docCheck != null) {
+            return docCheck;
+        }
+
+        pending.remove(token);
+        log.info("lead-rollover: confirmed token={} lead={} — roll scheduled once the calling turn ends",
+                token, callerTerminal);
+        continuationRunner.accept(() -> runRollover(p, cfg));
+        return RollDecision.approved();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The single-shot continuation {@link #confirm} hands to {@code continuationRunner}. Runs
+     * entirely after {@link #confirm} has returned to its caller — see this class's javadoc for the
+     * four-step order. There is no result to return to by this point, so every outcome is logged
+     * only.
+     */
+    private void runRollover(PendingRollover p, FleetConfig.LeadRollover cfg) {
+        String lead = p.leadTerminal();
+        long rollStartMillis = nowMillis.getAsLong();
+        TurnSettleResult turnResult = waitUntilAtTurnBoundary(lead, cfg.turnSettleSeconds());
+        if (!turnResult.settled()) {
+            // fleetd #494 follow-up: this line had the SAME defect as the /clear-timeout line below
+            // — cfg.turnSettleSeconds() is the CONFIGURED budget, not how long this wait actually
+            // ran. Print the measured elapsed time alongside it, labelled, exactly like the /clear
+            // path already does.
+            log.warn("lead-rollover: pane {} did not reach a turn boundary (IDLE or DONE) after "
+                            + "confirm() — refusing to send /clear at all; the calling lead's own "
+                            + "turn is still live and clearing it now would destroy live context "
+                            + "(token={}, configured={}s elapsed={}ms)",
+                    lead, p.token(), cfg.turnSettleSeconds(), turnResult.elapsedMillis());
+            return;
+        }
+
+        // This deliberately bypasses Injector, exactly like ClaudeCodeLauncher#clearContext:
+        // /clear is housekeeping, not a delegated turn, and routing it through Injector wedges the
+        // pane forever (see this class's javadoc).
+        agents.send(lead, "/clear");
+        ClearSettleResult clearResult = waitForClearPickupAndSettle(lead, cfg.clearSettleSeconds());
+        if (!clearResult.settled()) {
+            // fleetd #494: cfg.clearSettleSeconds() is the CONFIGURED budget, not how long the wait
+            // actually ran — an operator reading only that number wrongly believes it is a measured
+            // duration. Print the measured elapsed time and nudge count alongside it, each labelled,
+            // so the two can be compared at a glance.
+            log.warn("lead-rollover: pane {} did not reach a turn boundary (IDLE or DONE) after "
+                            + "/clear — NOT sending bootstrapText (token={}, configured={}s "
+                            + "elapsed={}ms nudges={})",
+                    lead, p.token(), cfg.clearSettleSeconds(), clearResult.elapsedMillis(),
+                    clearResult.nudges());
+            return;
+        }
+        agents.send(lead, cfg.bootstrapTextFor(p.handoverPath()));
+        long rollElapsedMillis = nowMillis.getAsLong() - rollStartMillis;
+        log.info("lead-rollover: rolled token={} lead={} elapsedMs={}", p.token(), lead, rollElapsedMillis);
+    }
+
+    /** Drop a pending request without rolling. @return whether a pending request existed for {@code token} */
+    public boolean cancel(String token) {
+        return pending.remove(token) != null;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The three handover-file checks, in order: exists, not empty, fresh (modified after
+     * {@link #open}'s timestamp and not older than {@code maxDocAgeSeconds}). Stats {@code
+     * p.handoverPath()} directly — {@link #open} already resolved it to an absolute path, so this
+     * never has to guess which directory it means.
+     *
+     * @return the first failing check's refusal, or {@code null} when all three pass
+     */
+    private RollDecision checkHandover(PendingRollover p, FleetConfig.LeadRollover cfg) {
+        Path path = Path.of(p.handoverPath());
+        if (!Files.exists(path)) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.HANDOVER_MISSING,
+                    "handover file " + p.handoverPath() + " does not exist");
+        }
+        long size;
+        long mtimeMillis;
+        try {
+            size = Files.size(path);
+            mtimeMillis = Files.getLastModifiedTime(path).toMillis();
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            throw new UncheckedIOException("failed to stat handover file " + p.handoverPath(), e);
+        }
+        if (size == 0) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.HANDOVER_EMPTY,
+                    "handover file " + p.handoverPath() + " is empty");
+        }
+        if (mtimeMillis <= p.requestedAtMillis()) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.HANDOVER_STALE,
+                    "handover file " + p.handoverPath() + " was not modified after the open() "
+                            + "request (mtime=" + mtimeMillis + "ms, requestedAt=" + p.requestedAtMillis() + "ms)");
+        }
+        long ageMillis = nowMillis.getAsLong() - mtimeMillis;
+        long maxAgeMillis = TimeUnit.SECONDS.toMillis(cfg.maxDocAgeSeconds());
+        if (ageMillis > maxAgeMillis) {
+            return RollDecision.refused(RefusalReason.HANDOVER_STALE,
+                    "handover file " + p.handoverPath() + " is " + TimeUnit.MILLISECONDS.toSeconds(ageMillis)
+                            + "s old, older than maxDocAgeSeconds=" + cfg.maxDocAgeSeconds());
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Poll {@link AgentControl#status} until {@code target} reports a real turn boundary — {@link
+     * AgentStatus#IDLE} or {@link AgentStatus#DONE} — bounded by {@code settleSeconds}. Used once by
+     * {@link #runRollover}, to wait for the CALLING turn's own pane to settle before {@code /clear}
+     * is ever sent at all — the {@code turnSettleSeconds} gate that makes this correction safe. The
+     * SECOND wait, after {@code /clear}, is {@link #waitForClearPickupAndSettle} instead (fleetd
+     * #489) — a plain boundary check is not enough there, because {@code /clear} starts no turn of
+     * its own, so this method would (wrongly) report "settled" on its very first poll whether or not
+     * {@code /clear} was actually picked up. A failed status read degrades to "not yet settled" and
+     * is retried on the next poll, the same posture {@code LeadHeartbeatLoop} and {@code
+     * HerdrPeerLauncher}'s readiness gate already take toward an unreadable status.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>Deliberately not {@link AgentStatus#injectable()}.</strong> {@code injectable()}
+     * answers the {@code Injector}'s question — "may I deliver a message without stepping on a live
+     * turn" — and it accepts {@link AgentStatus#BLOCKED} for that purpose, because a pane paused on
+     * an approval prompt is safe to queue a message behind. This class asks a stricter question —
+     * "has the turn actually ended" — and {@code BLOCKED} answers no: it is a live turn that is
+     * merely paused, not one that has finished. Reusing {@code injectable()} here would let this
+     * wait fire {@code /clear} while the lead's own {@code confirm()}-calling turn is still live and
+     * paused on a prompt — exactly the live-context-destroying failure the {@code turnSettleSeconds}
+     * gate exists to prevent. Do not "simplify" this back to {@code injectable()}. ({@link
+     * #waitForClearPickupAndSettle} keeps the same exclusion of {@code BLOCKED}, for the same
+     * reason, on the second wait.)
+     *
+     * @return a {@link TurnSettleResult} whose {@code settled()} is {@code true} once a real
+     *         boundary was observed, {@code false} if {@code settleSeconds} elapses first.
+     *         {@code elapsedMillis()} is a MEASURED value from the injected {@link #nowMillis}
+     *         clock, never the configured {@code settleSeconds} budget (fleetd #494 follow-up).
+     */
+    private TurnSettleResult waitUntilAtTurnBoundary(String target, int settleSeconds) {
+        long startMillis = nowMillis.getAsLong();
+        long deadline = startMillis + TimeUnit.SECONDS.toMillis(settleSeconds);
+        while (nowMillis.getAsLong() < deadline) {
+            AgentStatus status;
+            try {
+                status = agents.status(target);
+            } catch (RuntimeException e) {
+                log.debug("lead-rollover: status check failed while waiting for {} to settle: {}",
+                        target, e.toString());
+                status = null;
+            }
+            if (status == AgentStatus.IDLE || status == AgentStatus.DONE) {
+                return new TurnSettleResult(true, nowMillis.getAsLong() - startMillis);
+            }
+            settleSleeper.run();
+        }
+        return new TurnSettleResult(false, nowMillis.getAsLong() - startMillis);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The measured outcome of {@link #waitUntilAtTurnBoundary} — fleetd #494 follow-up. The sibling
+     * of {@link ClearSettleResult} for the FIRST wait, which never nudges, so it carries no nudge
+     * count.
+     */
+    private record TurnSettleResult(boolean settled, long elapsedMillis) {}
+
+    /**
+     * The SECOND wait in {@link #runRollover} — after {@code /clear} has been sent, waits for it to
+     * settle, bounded by {@code settleSeconds}. <strong>fleetd #489 — the paste-race fix.</strong>
+     * {@code /clear} does not start a real turn of its own, so a pane with no submit race simply
+     * stays {@link AgentStatus#IDLE} the whole time: {@link #waitUntilAtTurnBoundary} would (wrongly)
+     * call that "settled" on its very first poll, whether or not the {@code /clear} Enter actually
+     * landed. That was Fault 1, measured live on 2026-09-12 — the second gate was a no-op, so a
+     * {@code bootstrapText} send followed immediately, racing Fault 2: {@link AgentControl#submit}'s
+     * own javadoc already records that the submit accompanying a delivery "can race the paste —
+     * especially right as the worker's TUI becomes interactive — leaving the text unsubmitted"
+     * (CB-113). Because {@code runRollover} deliberately bypasses {@code Injector} for {@code
+     * /clear} (see this class's javadoc), it inherited none of {@code Injector}'s nudging — so the
+     * lost {@code /clear} Enter sat in the input box and {@code bootstrapText} was typed right after
+     * it, landing as one concatenated line.
+     *
+     * <p>This method copies the pickup-nudge pattern {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.Injector} already
+     * ships for exactly this, on its own post-turn {@code /clear} housekeeping (fleetd #306; see
+     * {@code Injector.java:288-340} and {@code Injector.java:437-442}):
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>an {@link AgentStatus#WORKING} sample means {@code /clear} was picked up as a real
+     *       turn;</li>
+     *   <li>until that happens, each poll that still reports {@link AgentStatus#IDLE} or {@link
+     *       AgentStatus#DONE} re-sends the submit keystroke ({@link AgentControl#submit}) to nudge
+     *       the raced Enter — for the first {@code PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS - 1} of {@link
+     *       #PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS} consecutive such polls (i.e. {@code PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS - 1}
+     *       nudges: 7, not 8, given {@code PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS = 8}). A second Enter on an empty
+     *       Claude Code prompt is a no-op, so repeating it is safe;</li>
+     *   <li>the {@code PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS}th consecutive such poll, with {@code WORKING} still never
+     *       observed, releases rather than wedges the roll instead of nudging again — the same
+     *       choice {@code Injector} makes — and returns {@code settled() == true} anyway, logged at
+     *       {@code warn} with the measured elapsed time (fleetd #494) so an operator can see which
+     *       path ran and how long it actually took;</li>
+     *   <li>once {@code WORKING} has been observed, nudging stops and this instead waits for a real
+     *       {@code working → IDLE/DONE} completion boundary before returning {@code true}.</li>
+     * </ul>
+     *
+     * <p><strong>{@link AgentStatus#BLOCKED} is deliberately excluded from both the nudge and the
+     * boundary check</strong> — the same reasoning as {@link #waitUntilAtTurnBoundary}'s own
+     * javadoc: a paused live turn is not a settled one, and re-sending Enter into an open approval
+     * prompt could wrongly answer it. A {@code BLOCKED} sample (or an unreadable/{@link
+     * AgentStatus#UNKNOWN} one) simply keeps this polling, with no nudge and no release, until either
+     * a real boundary is reached or {@code settleSeconds} runs out.
+     *
+     * <p>{@link AgentControl#submit} can itself throw; a {@link RuntimeException} from it is
+     * swallowed and logged at {@code debug}, exactly like {@code Injector.java:437-442} — a failed
+     * nudge must not abort the roll.
+     *
+     * @return a {@link ClearSettleResult} whose {@code settled()} is {@code true} once {@code
+     *         /clear} has settled, or once the nudge budget was exhausted with no pickup ever
+     *         observed (released rather than wedged); {@code false} if {@code settleSeconds} elapses
+     *         first — the caller must NOT send {@code bootstrapText} in that case, exactly as before
+     *         this fix. {@code elapsedMillis()} and {@code nudges()} are MEASURED values (from the
+     *         injected {@link #nowMillis} clock and an actual nudge count), never the configured
+     *         {@code settleSeconds} budget (fleetd #494).
+     */
+    private ClearSettleResult waitForClearPickupAndSettle(String target, int settleSeconds) {
+        long startMillis = nowMillis.getAsLong();
+        long deadline = startMillis + TimeUnit.SECONDS.toMillis(settleSeconds);
+        boolean pickedUp = false; // a WORKING sample has been observed since /clear was sent
+        int idlePollsAwaitingPickup = 0;
+        int nudges = 0;
+        while (nowMillis.getAsLong() < deadline) {
+            AgentStatus status;
+            try {
+                status = agents.status(target);
+            } catch (RuntimeException e) {
+                log.debug("lead-rollover: status check failed while waiting for {} to settle after "
+                        + "/clear: {}", target, e.toString());
+                status = null;
+            }
+            if (status == AgentStatus.WORKING) {
+                pickedUp = true;
+            } else if (status == AgentStatus.IDLE || status == AgentStatus.DONE) {
+                if (pickedUp) {
+                    // a real WORKING -> IDLE/DONE completion boundary
+                    return new ClearSettleResult(true, nowMillis.getAsLong() - startMillis, nudges);
+                }
+                if (++idlePollsAwaitingPickup >= PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS) {
+                    long elapsedMillis = nowMillis.getAsLong() - startMillis;
+                    // fleetd #494: this release trades a possibly-unsubmitted /clear for progress
+                    // instead of wedging the roll — that trade is deliberate and stays. But it is
+                    // also exactly the case that reported false success in the real incident (the
+                    // whole roll "succeeded" after 438ms of a 20s budget), so raise it to WARN and
+                    // print the MEASURED elapsed time next to the target pane, not just the count.
+                    //
+                    // fleetd #494 follow-up (2nd pass): BOTH numbers in this line must come from
+                    // the loop's own counters, never from the PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS constant.
+                    // `idlePollsAwaitingPickup` and `nudges` each have exactly one write site in
+                    // this loop, on the same branch, so on this branch they cannot differ from
+                    // PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS / PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS - 1 today — no test can prove the
+                    // difference on this line, and printing the counters does not change that.
+                    // What it does buy: one source of truth instead of two, so a later change to
+                    // the loop (an early return, a second increment site, a different exit
+                    // condition) cannot leave this message reporting a number the loop no longer
+                    // produces. The place where `nudges` genuinely varies with the run — and is
+                    // covered by a test that can tell it apart from a constant — is the
+                    // /clear-timeout warn in runRollover, which prints clearResult.nudges().
+                    log.warn("lead-rollover: /clear on {} was never observed as WORKING after {} "
+                                    + "consecutive IDLE/DONE polls ({} of those were nudged) — "
+                                    + "releasing rather than wedging the roll (elapsed={}ms)",
+                            target, idlePollsAwaitingPickup, nudges, elapsedMillis);
+                    return new ClearSettleResult(true, elapsedMillis, nudges);
+                }
+                try {
+                    agents.submit(target); // nudge a raced Enter (CB-113) so /clear actually submits
+                } catch (RuntimeException e) {
+                    log.debug("lead-rollover: resubmit to {} failed (will retry next poll): {}",
+                            target, e.getMessage());
+                } finally {
+                    nudges++; // an attempted nudge, whether or not the submit call itself threw
+                }
+            }
+            // AgentStatus.BLOCKED or UNKNOWN (or an unreadable status, above): neither a pickup
+            // signal nor a boundary — keep polling without nudging or releasing.
+            settleSleeper.run();
+        }
+        return new ClearSettleResult(false, nowMillis.getAsLong() - startMillis, nudges);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The measured outcome of {@link #waitForClearPickupAndSettle} — fleetd #494. Carries the
+     * MEASURED elapsed time (from the injected {@link #nowMillis} clock) and nudge count alongside
+     * the settle/timeout decision, so callers can log them instead of the configured budget, which
+     * is not how long the wait actually ran.
+     */
+    private record ClearSettleResult(boolean settled, long elapsedMillis, int nudges) {}
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/CharterToolSurface.java

@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
+
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.regex.Matcher;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #469: a launch charter that names an MCP tool the server does not register must stop the
+ * daemon at startup, not wait for a member to discover the gap by calling something that is not
+ * there.
+ *
+ * <p>Deliberately its own class outside {@code dev.ltms.fleet.config}, not a case in {@link
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig#validateCharters()}. The canonical tool surface ({@link
+ * FleetTool}) lives in the {@code mcp} package; config is loaded before the MCP server exists and
+ * must not gain a dependency on it. So this check belongs at the seam that already holds both a
+ * loaded {@code FleetConfig} and the {@code mcp} package: {@code Fleetd.main}, called right after
+ * {@code cfg.validateAll()} and before anything opens a socket or spawns a member.
+ *
+ * <p>{@code #464}'s {@code CharterToolSurfaceTest} proved the same comparison against a charter
+ * fixture it wrote itself into a {@code @TempDir}, which meant nothing anyone wrote into the live
+ * {@code fleetd.yaml} could ever fail it. This class is what a real charter is actually checked
+ * against at boot; {@code FleetdStartupValidationTest} exercises it through {@code Fleetd.main}
+ * itself, the same way it proves every other {@code validateXxx()} still runs there.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>fleetd #474</strong> — startup was not the only door: {@code
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef#reload()} used to run {@code FleetConfig#validateAll()} alone,
+ * which does not look at what a charter's text names, so a charter naming an unregistered tool
+ * that could not have booted the daemon could still be installed into a running one through a
+ * reload. This class still knows nothing about {@code ConfigRef} — {@code Fleetd.main} wires a
+ * small {@code FleetConfig -> void} adapter over {@link #assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools}
+ * ({@code Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools}) into {@code ConfigRef}'s constructor as
+ * its {@code Consumer<FleetConfig>} {@code extraValidation}, run inside {@code reload()}'s same
+ * try/catch as {@code validateAll()}, so both call sites — {@code Fleetd.main} at startup and
+ * {@code ConfigRef#reload()} afterwards — go through this one method and can never check different
+ * things. {@code dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRefTest} and {@code
+ * FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest} are what prove the reload call site, the same way
+ * {@code FleetdStartupValidationTest} proves the startup one.
+ */
+public final class CharterToolSurface {
+
+    /** A {@code fleet_…} (current) or {@code bridge_…} (pre-CB-634) tool-shaped token in prose. */
+    private static final Pattern TOOL_REFERENCE = Pattern.compile("(fleet_[a-z_]+|bridge_[a-z_]+)");
+
+    private CharterToolSurface() {
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param charters the configured {@code fleet.charters:} map (role wire name → charter text);
+     *                 {@code null} or empty is a no-op, same as an absent {@code fleet:} block
+     * @throws IllegalStateException naming the charter key and every tool it names that {@link
+     *                                FleetTool} does not list, when any charter does so
+     */
+    public static void assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(Map<String, String> charters) {
+        if (charters == null || charters.isEmpty()) {
+            return;
+        }
+        Set<String> registered = FleetTool.wireNames();
+        List<String> bad = new ArrayList<>();
+        charters.forEach((key, text) -> {
+            if (text == null) {
+                return;
+            }
+            Set<String> named = new LinkedHashSet<>();
+            Matcher m = TOOL_REFERENCE.matcher(text);
+            while (m.find()) {
+                named.add(m.group(1));
+            }
+            named.stream()
+                    .filter(t -> !registered.contains(t))
+                    .forEach(unknown -> bad.add("fleet.charters." + key + " names '" + unknown
+                            + "', which the server does not register (registered: " + registered + ")."));
+        });
+        if (!bad.isEmpty()) {
+            throw new IllegalStateException("refusing to start: " + String.join(" ", bad));
+        }
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.metrics.Metrics;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.MemberPresence;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrException;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.LeadChannel;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.LeadMessage;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.MessageService;
@@ -105,6 +106,13 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     private final LeadChannel leadChannel;
     /** fleetd #361: {@code coordinator.peers} — see {@link CoordinationSource}. Empty when unset. */
     private final List<String> peers;
+    /**
+     * fleetd #480 Unit C: the executor behind {@code fleet_handover}. {@code null} whenever
+     * {@code leadRollover:} is not configured — {@code fleet_handover} is still registered (see
+     * this class's javadoc on the charter tool-surface gate), and every action then degrades to a
+     * clean {@code NOT_CONFIGURED} refusal rather than throwing. See {@link #handover}.
+     */
+    private final LeadRollover leadRollover;
 
     /** Capacity facts used by {@code fleet_list}; production must supply the placement live count. */
     public record CapacitySource(Function<String, Integer> liveCount, Function<String, Integer> maxLoad,
@@ -121,17 +129,46 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
      * CB-578 stage B quarantine facts used by {@code fleet_profiles}: a profile → credential id
      * lookup, plus the shared {@link BackendQuarantine} to read remaining cooldowns off.
      *
-     * @param exhaustedPatternArmed fleetd #395: profile → whether that profile's {@code
-     *                      exhaustedPattern} is configured (see {@code
+     * @param exhaustedPatternArmed fleetd #395, made live by fleetd #446: profile → whether that
+     *                      profile's {@code exhaustedPattern} is configured right now (see {@code
      *                      FleetConfig.Profile#hasExhaustedPattern}), i.e. whether a backend refusal
      *                      on it can EVER be classified {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED} and quarantine its
      *                      credential. Bundled here, not a separate Source, because it answers the
      *                      exact question {@code fleet_profiles}'s quarantine facts already answer
      *                      for a QUARANTINED profile — "can this profile's usage limit ever be
-     *                      caught?" — just for every profile, not only one currently caught.
+     *                      caught?" — just for every profile, not only one currently caught. In
+     *                      production this reads {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.LiveExhaustedPatterns#armed} —
+     *                      the SAME live accessor {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver}
+     *                      enforces on — so a reload that arms or disarms detection is reported
+     *                      correctly on the very next call, no restart (see that class's doc).
+     * @param modelFor      fleetd #446 criterion 3: profile → the {@code model:} it runs, or
+     *                      {@code null} when the profile names none. Read live off the current
+     *                      config, the same way {@code credentialIdFor} already is. Used to name,
+     *                      in a QUARANTINED profile's row, which of the operator's configured models
+     *                      the fix (\"set {@code enabled: false} on it under {@code models.allow}\")
+     *                      actually applies to.
+     * @param reasonFor     fleetd #446 criterion 3: credential id → the backend text that triggered
+     *                      its most recent quarantine, or {@code null} when none is known (e.g. an
+     *                      inert source, or a quarantine recorded before this field existed). Never
+     *                      consulted on its own to decide whether a credential is quarantined —
+     *                      callers gate on {@link BackendQuarantine#remainingSeconds} first, exactly
+     *                      like {@code credentialId} itself, so a stale reason left behind after a
+     *                      quarantine expires is never surfaced.
      */
     public record QuarantineSource(Function<String, String> credentialIdFor, BackendQuarantine quarantine,
-                                    Function<String, Boolean> exhaustedPatternArmed) {
+                                    Function<String, Boolean> exhaustedPatternArmed,
+                                    Function<String, String> modelFor,
+                                    Function<String, String> reasonFor) {
+        /**
+         * Backward-compatible 3-arg form, before fleetd #446 added {@code modelFor}/{@code
+         * reasonFor} — neither is ever reported. Keeps every pre-existing call site (production and
+         * test) compiling and behaving identically for the quarantine facts they actually asked for.
+         */
+        public QuarantineSource(Function<String, String> credentialIdFor, BackendQuarantine quarantine,
+                                 Function<String, Boolean> exhaustedPatternArmed) {
+            this(credentialIdFor, quarantine, exhaustedPatternArmed, _ -> null, _ -> null);
+        }
+
         /**
          * Backward-compatible 2-arg form, before fleetd #395 added {@code exhaustedPatternArmed} —
          * reports every profile unarmed. Keeps every pre-existing call site (production and test)
@@ -214,78 +251,59 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     /**
-     * @param callers resolves each call's {@link Principal}; {@code null} disables authorization.
-     *                This surface needs its own enforcement: {@code /mcp} is a raw servlet on
-     *                Jetty's context handler and never passes through Javalin's {@code before}
-     *                filter, so the REST guard does not cover it.
-     * @param metrics registry for auth-failure counting; may be {@code null}
-     * @param quarantine CB-578 stage B facts for {@code fleet_profiles}; required — pass
-     *                   {@link QuarantineSource#none()} for a caller that does not want the feature
-     */
-    public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
-                     ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
-                      CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
-                      QuarantineSource quarantine) {
-        this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
-                healthCoverage, quarantine, null, OutageSource.none(), LeadSeatSource.none());
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * As above, with this daemon's lead-to-lead channel (CB-637). {@code leadChannel} is
-     * {@code null} whenever no {@code coordinator:} block is configured or its broker could not be
-     * reached at boot — cross-daemon lead messaging is simply off, and {@code fleet_send{coordId}}
-     * says so rather than failing obscurely.
-     */
-    public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
-                     ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
-                      CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
-                      QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel) {
-        this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
-                healthCoverage, quarantine, leadChannel, OutageSource.none(), LeadSeatSource.none());
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * As above, with fleetd #201 Unit 5 cool-off facts for {@code fleet_list}/{@code fleet_profiles}
-     * (see {@link OutageSource}).
+     * The only constructor (fleetd #480 Unit C correction round). Every field below used to have
+     * its own defaulting overload — {@code leadChannel}/{@code outage}/{@code leadSeats}/
+     * {@code peers}/{@code leadRollover} each got a shorter, convenience constructor that silently
+     * filled it in ({@code null}, {@code .none()}, or {@code List.of()}) when a caller did not pass
+     * it. That is exactly how {@code Fleetd.main}'s wiring of {@link LeadRollover} could have gone
+     * silently missing: drop one argument from the real call and it just lands on a shorter
+     * overload instead of failing to compile, and every existing test — none of which exercises
+     * {@code Fleetd.main} itself — stays green while the live daemon quietly answers
+     * {@code NOT_CONFIGURED} to {@code fleet_handover} forever. Collapsing every overload into one
+     * required-everything constructor turns that mistake into a compile error instead: this
+     * project's own antidote for a defaulted parameter surviving as an untested decision (see
+     * {@code FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest} / {@code FleetdLeadRolloverWiringTest}'s own
+     * javadoc for the same lesson applied to a different seam). A caller that genuinely wants a
+     * feature off must now say so explicitly at the call site — {@code null},
+     * {@link OutageSource#none()}, {@link LeadSeatSource#none()}, {@code List.of()} are all still
+     * perfectly fine values, just never an implicit default reached by omission.
      *
-     * @param outage required — pass {@link OutageSource#none()} for a caller that does not want the
-     *               feature, never a defaulting overload (the same rule {@code quarantine} follows).
-     */
-    public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
-                     ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
-                      CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
-                      QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel, OutageSource outage) {
-        this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
-                healthCoverage, quarantine, leadChannel, outage, LeadSeatSource.none());
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * As above, with fleetd #176 lead-seat facts (see {@link LeadSeatSource}).
+     * @param callers      resolves each call's {@link Principal}; {@code null} disables
+     *                     authorization. This surface needs its own enforcement: {@code /mcp} is a
+     *                     raw servlet on Jetty's context handler and never passes through
+     *                     Javalin's {@code before} filter, so the REST guard does not cover it.
+     * @param metrics      registry for auth-failure counting; may be {@code null}
+     * @param quarantine   CB-578 stage B facts for {@code fleet_profiles}; pass
+     *                     {@link QuarantineSource#none()} for a caller that does not want the
+     *                     feature
+     * @param leadChannel  this daemon's lead-to-lead channel (CB-637); {@code null} whenever no
+     *                     {@code coordinator:} block is configured or its broker could not be
+     *                     reached at boot — cross-daemon lead messaging is simply off, and
+     *                     {@code fleet_send{coordId}} says so rather than failing obscurely
+     * @param outage       fleetd #201 Unit 5 cool-off facts for {@code fleet_list}/
+     *                     {@code fleet_profiles}; pass {@link OutageSource#none()} for a caller
+     *                     that does not want the feature
+     * @param leadSeats    fleetd #176 lead-seat facts (see {@link LeadSeatSource}); pass
+     *                     {@link LeadSeatSource#none()} for a caller that does not want the
+     *                     feature
+     * @param peers        fleetd #361 {@code coordinator.peers} (see {@link CoordinationSource});
+     *                     the coord-ids declared there, or empty when unset or when
+     *                     {@code leadChannel} is {@code null}
+     * @param leadRollover fleetd #480 Unit C: the {@link LeadRollover} executor behind
+     *                     {@code fleet_handover}. {@code null} whenever {@code leadRollover:} is
+     *                     not configured — an upgraded daemon must never silently acquire the
+     *                     ability to clear a lead's own pane (mirrors
+     *                     {@code Fleetd.leadRollover(...)}'s own construction gate).
+     *                     {@code fleet_handover} is registered unconditionally either way — see
+     *                     this class's javadoc and fleetd #474's charter tool-surface gate — and
+     *                     every action degrades to a clean refusal naming {@code NOT_CONFIGURED}
+     *                     instead of throwing. See {@link #handover}.
      */
     public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
                      ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
                       CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
                       QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel, OutageSource outage,
-                      LeadSeatSource leadSeats) {
-        this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
-                healthCoverage, quarantine, leadChannel, outage, leadSeats, List.of());
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * As above, with fleetd #361 {@code coordinator.peers} (see {@link CoordinationSource}). This is
-     * what {@code Fleetd.main} actually wires up.
-     *
-     * @param leadSeats required — pass {@link LeadSeatSource#none()} for a caller that does not want
-     *                  the feature, never a defaulting overload (the same rule {@code quarantine} and
-     *                  {@code outage} follow).
-     * @param peers     the coord-ids declared under {@code coordinator.peers}; empty when unset or
-     *                  when {@code leadChannel} is {@code null}.
-     */
-    public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
-                     ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
-                      CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
-                      QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel, OutageSource outage,
-                      LeadSeatSource leadSeats, List<String> peers) {
+                      LeadSeatSource leadSeats, List<String> peers, LeadRollover leadRollover) {
         this.leadChannel = leadChannel;
         this.peers = peers == null ? List.of() : List.copyOf(peers);
         this.capacity = capacity;
@@ -293,6 +311,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         this.outage = Objects.requireNonNull(outage, "outage");
         this.leadSeats = Objects.requireNonNull(leadSeats, "leadSeats");
         this.healthCoverage = healthCoverage;
+        this.leadRollover = leadRollover;
         McpJsonMapper json = new JacksonMcpJsonMapperSupplier().get();
         this.transport = HttpServletStreamableServerTransportProvider.builder()
                 .jsonMapper(json)
@@ -426,7 +445,8 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                     return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, outage,
                             leadSeats, callers == null ? Map.of() : callers.leads(),
                             callerTerminal(exchange),
-                            new CoordinationSource(leadChannel, peers));
+                            new CoordinationSource(leadChannel, peers),
+                            coordinatorVisibleTo(principal(exchange)));
                 };
         BiFunction<McpSyncServerExchange, McpSchema.CallToolRequest, McpSchema.CallToolResult> stopHandler =
                 (exchange, req) -> {
@@ -447,6 +467,15 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                     if (denied != null) return denied;
                     return whoami(principal(exchange), sessions);
                 };
+        // fleetd #480 Unit C: fleet_handover. No terminal/session argument at all — the lead pane
+        // to roll is ALWAYS the caller's own connection-resolved terminal (never a request field),
+        // per LeadRollover's class javadoc (fleetd #480 correction 2).
+        BiFunction<McpSyncServerExchange, McpSchema.CallToolRequest, McpSchema.CallToolResult> handoverHandler =
+                (exchange, req) -> {
+                    McpSchema.CallToolResult denied = deny(exchange, toolAction("fleet_handover", req.arguments()), null);
+                    if (denied != null) return denied;
+                    return handover(leadRollover, callerTerminal(exchange), req.arguments());
+                };
 
         McpSchema.Tool fleetSend = sendTool();
         McpSchema.Tool fleetReply = replyTool();
@@ -459,6 +488,23 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         McpSchema.Tool fleetStop = stopTool();
         McpSchema.Tool fleetProfiles = profilesTool();
         McpSchema.Tool fleetWhoami = whoamiTool();
+        McpSchema.Tool fleetHandover = handoverTool();
+
+        // fleetd #469: the tool schemas above are already named from FleetTool.wireName(), but
+        // this is the check that a schema was not accidentally dropped, duplicated, or added
+        // under a name FleetTool does not list. It runs once, at construction (startup), rather
+        // than being left to CharterToolSurface or a test to discover later — a canonical entry
+        // this server never registers, or a registration with no canonical entry backing it, is a
+        // startup failure, not a silent gap.
+        Set<String> registeredToolNames = Set.of(fleetSend.name(), fleetReply.name(), fleetAsk.name(),
+                fleetStatus.name(), fleetPoll.name(), fleetAck.name(), fleetSpawn.name(),
+                fleetList.name(), fleetStop.name(), fleetProfiles.name(), fleetWhoami.name(),
+                fleetHandover.name());
+        if (!registeredToolNames.equals(FleetTool.wireNames())) {
+            throw new IllegalStateException("fleetd #469: registered MCP tools " + registeredToolNames
+                    + " do not match the canonical tool set " + FleetTool.wireNames()
+                    + " -- FleetTool is the single source of truth for what this server registers");
+        }
 
         this.server = McpServer.sync(transport)
                 .serverInfo("fleet", "0.1.0")
@@ -474,6 +520,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                 .toolCall(fleetStop, stopHandler)
                 .toolCall(fleetProfiles, profilesHandler)
                 .toolCall(fleetWhoami, whoamiHandler)
+                .toolCall(fleetHandover, handoverHandler)
                 .build();
         this.authz = callers;
         this.metrics = metrics;
@@ -579,6 +626,20 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #439: only the primary may read {@code fleet_list}'s {@code coordinator} row —
+     * lead-to-lead coordination state (coord-ids, mailbox facts, held-message previews), never the
+     * roster. Split out of the {@code fleet_list} handler, same reason as {@link #denyFor} and
+     * {@link #recordPrimarySingleton}: the decision must be unit-testable without fabricating an
+     * SDK {@code McpSyncServerExchange}, and the handler must call this named predicate rather than
+     * inlining the check, so a future edit cannot silently pass a literal instead of asking who
+     * called ({@code FleetMcpAuthzTest.theFleetListHandlerActuallyConsultsCoordinatorVisibleTo}
+     * reads the source and asserts the handler calls this method by name, not a literal).
+     */
+    static boolean coordinatorVisibleTo(Principal caller) {
+        return caller.isPrimary();
+    }
+
     /** The worker identity resolved from this call's connection, or {@code null} if the primary. */
     private static String callerTerminal(McpSyncServerExchange exchange) {
         Object v = exchange.transportContext().get(CALLER_TERMINAL);
@@ -624,6 +685,19 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         server.closeGracefully();
     }
 
+    /**
+     * The tools this server has actually registered with the MCP SDK, wire schema included.
+     *
+     * <p>Package-private, for tests that must check the REGISTERED schema rather than this
+     * class's own source text — e.g. proving {@code fleet_handover}'s input schema carries no
+     * caller-terminal parameter (fleetd #480 Unit C acceptance criterion 4). A source-text scrape
+     * cannot tell "the schema builder omits this key" apart from "a typo means it never runs" the
+     * way asking the constructed server itself can.
+     */
+    List<McpSchema.Tool> registeredTools() {
+        return server.listTools();
+    }
+
     // --- tool logic (thin adapters over the services; unit-testable) ---------------------------
 
     /**
@@ -853,20 +927,35 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
 
     /**
      * The action a registered tool handler actually hands to the authorization gate.
-     * Keeping this choice beside the registered-tool inventory makes a new tool fail the coverage
-     * test until its action is pinned.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code toolName} is a raw string off the wire (an MCP call names its tool by string, and a
+     * malformed or stale client can send anything), so resolving it against {@link FleetTool} first
+     * — and throwing on a miss — is still a run-time check by necessity. What moved to compile time
+     * is the second step: {@link #authzAction(FleetTool, Map)} switches on the resolved {@link
+     * FleetTool} itself with no {@code default}, so a new {@link FleetTool} constant with no pinned
+     * action fails {@code mvn compile}, not just {@code FleetMcpAuthzTest} at run time.
      */
     static Authz.Action toolAction(String toolName, Map<String, Object> arguments) {
-        return switch (toolName) {
-            case "fleet_send" -> Authz.Action.SEND;
-            case "fleet_reply" -> Authz.Action.REPLY;
-            case "fleet_ask" -> Authz.Action.ASK;
-            case "fleet_status", "fleet_list", "fleet_profiles", "fleet_whoami" -> Authz.Action.READ;
-            case "fleet_poll" -> pollAction(str(arguments, "target"), str(arguments, "coordId"));
-            case "fleet_ack" -> Authz.Action.DRAIN;
-            case "fleet_spawn" -> Authz.Action.SPAWN;
-            case "fleet_stop" -> Authz.Action.STOP;
-            default -> throw new IllegalArgumentException("unregistered tool: " + toolName);
+        FleetTool tool = FleetTool.byWireName(toolName)
+                .orElseThrow(() -> new IllegalArgumentException("unregistered tool: " + toolName));
+        return authzAction(tool, arguments);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Exhaustive over {@link FleetTool} on purpose — no {@code default}. Adding a tool to {@link
+     * FleetTool} without adding its case here is a compile error (fleetd #469).
+     */
+    private static Authz.Action authzAction(FleetTool tool, Map<String, Object> arguments) {
+        return switch (tool) {
+            case SEND -> Authz.Action.SEND;
+            case REPLY -> Authz.Action.REPLY;
+            case ASK -> Authz.Action.ASK;
+            case STATUS, LIST, PROFILES, WHOAMI -> Authz.Action.READ;
+            case POLL -> pollAction(str(arguments, "target"), str(arguments, "coordId"));
+            case ACK -> Authz.Action.DRAIN;
+            case SPAWN -> Authz.Action.SPAWN;
+            case STOP -> Authz.Action.STOP;
+            case HANDOVER -> Authz.Action.HANDOVER;
         };
     }
 
@@ -994,7 +1083,11 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         if (isBlank(target) || isBlank(msgId)) {
             return error("target and msgId are required");
         }
-        messages.ackReply(target, msgId);
+        if (!messages.ackReply(target, msgId)) {
+            return error(msgId + " is not in " + target + "'s reply inbox (wrong id, wrong target, "
+                    + "or already acked). Held lead-to-lead (peer) mail cannot be acked this way — "
+                    + "read it with fleet_poll{coordId}.");
+        }
         return text("acknowledged " + msgId);
     }
 
@@ -1087,6 +1180,119 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         return text(json(m));
     }
 
+    /**
+     * {@code fleet_handover} (fleetd #480 Unit C): drive {@link LeadRollover#open}/
+     * {@link LeadRollover#confirm}/{@link LeadRollover#cancel} from a tool call.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code callerTerminal} is the CALLING lead's terminal id, resolved by the MCP layer from
+     * the connection (see {@link #callerTerminal(McpSyncServerExchange)}) — never a request field.
+     * This is why this tool's input schema ({@link #handoverTool}) carries no terminal/session/
+     * leadTerminal parameter of any kind: a lead can only ever open or confirm a rollover of its
+     * OWN pane (see {@code LeadRollover}'s class javadoc, fleetd #480 correction 2).
+     *
+     * <p>{@code leadRollover} is {@code null} whenever {@code leadRollover:} is not configured.
+     * This tool is registered unconditionally regardless (see this class's javadoc on the fleetd
+     * #474 charter tool-surface gate), so every action here must degrade to a clean, structured
+     * refusal naming {@code NOT_CONFIGURED} rather than ever throwing.
+     */
+    static McpSchema.CallToolResult handover(LeadRollover leadRollover, String callerTerminal,
+                                              Map<String, Object> args) {
+        String action = str(args, "action");
+        if (isBlank(action)) {
+            return error("action is required: \"open\", \"confirm\" or \"cancel\"");
+        }
+        return switch (action) {
+            case "open" -> handoverOpen(leadRollover, callerTerminal, str(args, "reason"));
+            case "confirm" -> handoverConfirm(leadRollover, callerTerminal, str(args, "token"),
+                    truthy(args, "operatorConfirmed"));
+            case "cancel" -> handoverCancel(leadRollover, str(args, "token"));
+            default -> error("unknown action \"" + action + "\" — must be \"open\", \"confirm\" or \"cancel\"");
+        };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * {@code action: "open"}. On the null-{@code leadRollover} path (not configured) and on the
+     * config-removed-since-construction path ({@link LeadRollover#open} itself throws {@link
+     * IllegalStateException} for that), both degrade to the same clean {@code NOT_CONFIGURED}
+     * refusal — never an escaping exception.
+     */
+    private static McpSchema.CallToolResult handoverOpen(LeadRollover leadRollover, String callerTerminal,
+                                                          String reason) {
+        if (leadRollover == null) {
+            return notConfigured();
+        }
+        if (isBlank(callerTerminal)) {
+            // An unnamed primary (token/loopback path, no resolved pane) has nowhere for the
+            // eventual /clear + bootstrap to land — LeadRollover#open would throw
+            // IllegalArgumentException for the same reason; refuse cleanly here instead.
+            return error("fleet_handover requires a named lead pane (a resolved connection terminal) "
+                    + "to open a rollover request against — an unnamed primary has none");
+        }
+        try {
+            LeadRollover.PendingRollover p = leadRollover.open(callerTerminal, reason);
+            Map<String, Object> m = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+            m.put("token", p.token());
+            m.put("handoverPath", p.handoverPath());
+            m.put("requestedAtMillis", p.requestedAtMillis());
+            return text(json(m));
+        } catch (IllegalStateException e) {
+            // leadRollover: was removed from config by a hot reload since this FleetMcp was
+            // constructed — same clean refusal as the null-at-construction case above.
+            return notConfigured();
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** {@code action: "confirm"}. Surfaces every {@link LeadRollover.RefusalReason} verbatim. */
+    private static McpSchema.CallToolResult handoverConfirm(LeadRollover leadRollover, String callerTerminal,
+                                                             String token, boolean operatorConfirmed) {
+        if (leadRollover == null) {
+            return refusalJson(false, "NOT_CONFIGURED", "leadRollover: is not configured");
+        }
+        if (isBlank(token)) {
+            return error("token is required for action \"confirm\"");
+        }
+        LeadRollover.RollDecision d = leadRollover.confirm(callerTerminal, token, operatorConfirmed);
+        return refusalJson(d.accepted(), d.reason() == null ? null : d.reason().name(), d.detail());
+    }
+
+    /** {@code action: "cancel"}. An unknown token is a clean "no pending request", never an error. */
+    private static McpSchema.CallToolResult handoverCancel(LeadRollover leadRollover, String token) {
+        if (leadRollover == null) {
+            Map<String, Object> m = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+            m.put("cancelled", false);
+            m.put("reason", "NOT_CONFIGURED");
+            m.put("detail", "leadRollover: is not configured");
+            return text(json(m));
+        }
+        if (isBlank(token)) {
+            return error("token is required for action \"cancel\"");
+        }
+        boolean existed = leadRollover.cancel(token);
+        Map<String, Object> m = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        m.put("cancelled", existed);
+        if (!existed) {
+            m.put("detail", "no pending request for token " + token);
+        }
+        return text(json(m));
+    }
+
+    /** The one shared {@code NOT_CONFIGURED} refusal shape for {@code open}/{@code confirm}. */
+    private static McpSchema.CallToolResult notConfigured() {
+        return refusalJson(false, "NOT_CONFIGURED", "leadRollover: is not configured");
+    }
+
+    private static McpSchema.CallToolResult refusalJson(boolean accepted, String reason, String detail) {
+        Map<String, Object> m = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        m.put("accepted", accepted);
+        if (reason != null) {
+            m.put("reason", reason);
+        }
+        if (detail != null) {
+            m.put("detail", detail);
+        }
+        return text(json(m));
+    }
+
     // --- fleet management logic (CB-108 / CB-301) --------------------------------------------
 
     /** {@code fleet_spawn} without cwd/caller context (default resolution). */
@@ -1206,13 +1412,28 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
      * #284 was, where one rule computed in two places was widened in only one and a single response
      * contradicted itself. Shared inputs do not make duplicated computation safe.
      *
-     * <p>fleetd #395: also reports {@code exhaustionDetectionArmed}, one boolean per configured
-     * profile — {@code true} when that profile's {@code exhaustedPattern} is set, {@code false}
-     * when it is not, so an operator can tell "this profile is healthy" from "nothing can ever
-     * quarantine this profile" without reading {@code fleetd.yaml}. Unlike {@code quarantined}/
-     * {@code coolingOff}, this map always names every profile: an unarmed profile never enters a
-     * transient state to be absent from, so silence here would read as "healthy" rather than "not
-     * being watched at all".
+     * <p>fleetd #395, made live by fleetd #446: also reports {@code exhaustionDetectionArmed}, one
+     * boolean per configured profile — {@code true} when that profile's {@code exhaustedPattern} is
+     * set RIGHT NOW, {@code false} when it is not, so an operator can tell "this profile is
+     * healthy" from "nothing can ever quarantine this profile" without reading {@code fleetd.yaml}.
+     * Unlike {@code quarantined}/{@code coolingOff}, this map always names every profile: an
+     * unarmed profile never enters a transient state to be absent from, so silence here would read
+     * as "healthy" rather than "not being watched at all". Hot since fleetd #446: a reload that
+     * arms or disarms a profile's {@code exhaustedPattern} changes this map's answer on the very
+     * next call, no restart — see {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.LiveExhaustedPatterns}'s class doc.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #446 criterion 3: each {@code quarantined} row also names {@code model} (the
+     * profile's configured {@code model:}, omitted when the profile names none) and {@code reason}
+     * (the backend text that triggered the most recent quarantine of that credential, omitted when
+     * none is known) — so a lead can see WHICH model to turn off and WHY, without reading the
+     * daemon log.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #466 scope item 2: each {@code quarantined} row also names {@code
+     * quarantineAttempt} — 1 for a first-time exhaustion, 2 for the second in a row, and so on — so
+     * an operator sees "this is the 5th time" instead of inferring it from {@code
+     * quarantinedForSeconds} alone. Read off {@link BackendQuarantine#status(String)}, the same
+     * one-call accessor {@code quarantinedForSeconds} itself comes from here (see its doc) — never a
+     * separately derived count.
      */
     public static Map<String, Object> profilesView(PeerLauncher workers, QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage) {
         Map<String, Object> result = new LinkedHashMap<>();
@@ -1225,10 +1446,22 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
             exhaustionDetectionArmed.put(profile, quarantine.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply(profile));
             String credentialId = quarantine.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
             if (credentialId != null) {
-                quarantine.quarantine().remainingSeconds(credentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
+                // fleetd #466 scope item 2: quarantinedForSeconds and quarantineAttempt come off the
+                // ONE BackendQuarantine#status(credentialId) call — never a second, independent read
+                // for the attempt count — so the two can never disagree about which streak this is.
+                quarantine.quarantine().status(credentialId).ifPresent(status -> {
                     Map<String, Object> row = new LinkedHashMap<>();
                     row.put("credentialId", credentialId);
-                    row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", remaining);
+                    row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", status.remainingSeconds());
+                    row.put("quarantineAttempt", status.repeatCount());
+                    String model = quarantine.modelFor().apply(profile);
+                    if (model != null && !model.isBlank()) {
+                        row.put("model", model);
+                    }
+                    String reason = quarantine.reasonFor().apply(credentialId);
+                    if (reason != null && !reason.isBlank()) {
+                        row.put("reason", reason);
+                    }
                     quarantined.put(profile, row);
                 });
             }
@@ -1340,12 +1573,48 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                 LeadSeatSource.none(), leads, selfTerm, coordination);
     }
 
-    /** As above, plus fleetd #176 lead-seat facts (see {@link LeadSeatSource}). */
+    /**
+     * As above, plus fleetd #176 lead-seat facts (see {@link LeadSeatSource}).
+     *
+     * <p>Assumes the caller is <strong>not</strong> the primary (fleetd #463) — every wrapper
+     * overload above delegates here without carrying a caller identity, which is exactly right for
+     * them: they exist for call sites (and unit tests) that have no {@link Principal} to hand over,
+     * and a missing identity should fail closed rather than fail open onto lead-to-lead state. A
+     * test that wants the {@code coordinator} row must call the canonical overload below with an
+     * explicit {@code true}. The one call site that has a real caller ({@code fleet_list}'s MCP
+     * handler) uses {@link #listFleet(PeerLauncher, SessionManager, MessageService, CapacitySource,
+     * HealthCoverageSource, QuarantineSource, OutageSource, LeadSeatSource, Map, String,
+     * CoordinationSource, boolean)} instead, so it can pass the true answer.
+     */
     static McpSchema.CallToolResult listFleet(PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions, MessageService messages,
                                                CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
                                                QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage,
                                                LeadSeatSource leadSeats, Map<String, String> leads, String selfTerm,
                                                CoordinationSource coordination) {
+        return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, outage,
+                leadSeats, leads, selfTerm, coordination, false);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * As above, gated by the caller's role (fleetd #439). The {@code coordinator} row is
+     * lead-to-lead coordination state — coordination between orchestrators, not roster
+     * observation — so it is assembled and included only when {@code callerIsPrimary} is
+     * {@code true}. A worker or an architect gets a result with the {@code coordinator} key
+     * <strong>absent</strong>, never an empty or redacted one, and never pays the cost of
+     * {@link #coordinatorView} probing peer mailboxes for a row it will not receive.
+     *
+     * @param callerIsPrimary whether the {@code fleet_list} caller is the primary; only the MCP
+     *                        handler computes this from the real connection (see
+     *                        {@code Principal#isPrimary()}) — every other overload passes
+     *                        {@code false} (fleetd #463: a forgotten argument fails closed, not
+     *                        open), so a test that wants the {@code coordinator} row must pass
+     *                        an explicit {@code true}
+     */
+    static McpSchema.CallToolResult listFleet(PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions, MessageService messages,
+                                               CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
+                                               QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage,
+                                               LeadSeatSource leadSeats, Map<String, String> leads, String selfTerm,
+                                               CoordinationSource coordination, boolean callerIsPrimary) {
         try {
             Map<String, Agent> live = workers.list().stream()
                     .map(Agent.class::cast)
@@ -1367,9 +1636,14 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
             Map<String, Object> result = new LinkedHashMap<>();
             result.put("leads", leadRows); result.put("members", out);
             result.put("healthCoverage", healthCoverage.value().get());
-            Map<String, Object> coordinatorRow = coordinatorView(coordination);
-            if (coordinatorRow != null) {
-                result.put("coordinator", coordinatorRow);
+            // fleetd #439: coordinator/coordinatorView is lead-to-lead coordination state and must
+            // never reach a worker or an architect -- gate BEFORE assembling it, not after, so the
+            // key is absent rather than present-and-empty.
+            if (callerIsPrimary) {
+                Map<String, Object> coordinatorRow = coordinatorView(coordination);
+                if (coordinatorRow != null) {
+                    result.put("coordinator", coordinatorRow);
+                }
             }
             if (capacity.available()) result.put("capacity", profiles.stream()
                     .map(profile -> capacityView(profile, capacity.liveCount(), capacity.maxLoad(), roster, messages,
@@ -1619,10 +1893,13 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         }
         String credentialId = quarantine.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
         if (credentialId != null) {
-            quarantine.quarantine().remainingSeconds(credentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
+            // fleetd #466 scope item 2: same one-call status() read as profilesView above — see its
+            // comment for why this must not become two separate lookups.
+            quarantine.quarantine().status(credentialId).ifPresent(status -> {
                 row.put("free", 0);
                 row.put("credentialId", credentialId);
-                row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", remaining);
+                row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", status.remainingSeconds());
+                row.put("quarantineAttempt", status.repeatCount());
             });
         }
         String outageCredentialId = outage.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
@@ -1700,7 +1977,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     // --- tool schemas --------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool sendTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_send",
+        return tool(FleetTool.SEND.wireName(),
                 "Delegate a task to a worker session. By default blocks until the worker replies and "
                         + "returns its reply (or a 'still working / queued' note on timeout). Pass wait:false "
                         + "for a long task to return a ticket immediately, then poll it with fleet_poll. To "
@@ -1728,7 +2005,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool askTool() {
         // No target/session arg — the worker's identity is resolved from the connection.
-        return tool("fleet_ask",
+        return tool(FleetTool.ASK.wireName(),
                 "Pause your current delegated turn to ask the primary a question, blocking until it "
                         + "answers — then resume the same turn with the answer. Use this when only the "
                         + "primary has a decision or detail you need to continue. You do not address the "
@@ -1741,7 +2018,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool pollTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_poll",
+        return tool(FleetTool.POLL.wireName(),
                 "Check an async delegation (a fleet_send with wait:false) by its ticket: "
                         + "pending, done (with the worker's reply), or failed. When target (a worker "
                         + "session id) is present instead of ticket, drain that worker's inbox of "
@@ -1761,18 +2038,21 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool ackTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_ack",
+        return tool(FleetTool.ACK.wireName(),
                 "Acknowledge (remove) a specific reply from a worker's inbox. Use when the primary "
                         + "has processed a reply and wants to confirm it, leaving other pending replies "
                         + "in the inbox for later drain.",
                 objectSchema(Map.of(
-                        "target", stringProp("Worker session id whose inbox to ack from"),
+                        "target", stringProp("Worker session id whose inbox to ack from. Must name a "
+                                + "reply actually queued for it — an id in no inbox, or a coord-id "
+                                + "(peer held mail, read with fleet_poll{coordId} instead), errors "
+                                + "rather than reporting a false success"),
                         "msgId", stringProp("The message id to acknowledge")),
                         List.of("target", "msgId")));
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool spawnTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_spawn",
+        return tool(FleetTool.SPAWN.wireName(),
                 "Spawn a new off-subscription member session. A member has two independent attributes: "
                         + "role (what it is for) and profile (which backend it runs on). Pass role to pick "
                         + "the contract — 'dev' implements a unit and opens its own PR, 'reviewer' reviews a "
@@ -1804,20 +2084,25 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool profilesTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_profiles",
+        return tool(FleetTool.PROFILES.wireName(),
                 "List the configured worker profiles (backends) and which one fleet_spawn uses by "
                         + "default. A 'quarantined' map is present when a backend-exhausted refusal put "
                         + "a profile's credential on cooldown — fleet_spawn onto it is refused until "
-                        + "quarantinedForSeconds elapses; a profile sharing that credential is listed too. "
+                        + "quarantinedForSeconds elapses; a profile sharing that credential is listed too, "
+                        + "each row naming 'model' (the model that profile runs, when configured) and "
+                        + "'reason' (the backend text that triggered the quarantine, when known) — the fix "
+                        + "is usually `enabled: false` on that model under models.allow. "
                         + "'exhaustionDetectionArmed' reports, per profile, whether a usage-limit refusal "
                         + "on it can EVER be classified and quarantined (its exhaustedPattern is "
                         + "configured) — false means that profile's credential can never be quarantined "
-                        + "by this mechanism, however many usage-limit refusals it sees.",
+                        + "by this mechanism, however many usage-limit refusals it sees. Both "
+                        + "exhaustedPattern and models.allow's on/off state are hot: editing fleetd.yaml "
+                        + "and reloading arms/disarms detection or flips a model off with no restart.",
                 objectSchema(Map.of(), List.of()));
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool listTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_list",
+        return tool(FleetTool.LIST.wireName(),
                 "List the whole fleet the bridge tracks, in two parts. 'leads' are your PEERS — other "
                         + "orchestrators, each with its sessionId (the address to fleet_send to), "
                         + "name, live status, and 'self': true on your own row; this is how you "
@@ -1853,7 +2138,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool stopTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_stop",
+        return tool(FleetTool.STOP.wireName(),
                 "Tear down a worker session by its paneId (from fleet_spawn or fleet_list).",
                 objectSchema(Map.of(
                         "paneId", stringProp("The worker's paneId to stop")),
@@ -1862,7 +2147,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool replyTool() {
         // No session/target arg — the caller's identity is resolved from the connection.
-        return tool("fleet_reply",
+        return tool(FleetTool.REPLY.wireName(),
                 "Return your structured answer for a message you were sent, resolving the sender's "
                         + "blocked fleet_send. A worker MUST end every delegated turn with exactly "
                         + "one of these. A lead uses it only to answer another lead that messaged "
@@ -1873,7 +2158,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool statusTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_status",
+        return tool(FleetTool.STATUS.wireName(),
                 "Get the live lifecycle status (idle/working/blocked/unknown) of a worker session.",
                 objectSchema(Map.of(
                         "sessionId", stringProp("The worker session id to query")),
@@ -1881,7 +2166,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     }
 
     private static McpSchema.Tool whoamiTool() {
-        return tool("fleet_whoami",
+        return tool(FleetTool.WHOAMI.wireName(),
                 "Report who YOU are on the bridge — your role is resolved from your connection "
                         + "(unforgeable), never from anything you claim. Returns role 'primary' (you "
                         + "orchestrate: spawn/send/stop; reply ONLY to answer a peer lead that "
@@ -1895,6 +2180,31 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                 objectSchema(Map.of(), List.of()));
     }
 
+    private static McpSchema.Tool handoverTool() {
+        return tool(FleetTool.HANDOVER.wireName(),
+                "Replace your OWN lead session once its context is full: write a handover file, "
+                        + "then use this to have fleetd clear your pane and bootstrap a fresh lead "
+                        + "session against it. Three actions: 'open' (requests a token and the "
+                        + "handoverPath you must write the handover file to before confirming), "
+                        + "'confirm' (validates every gate and — only if every one passes — schedules "
+                        + "the roll; it does NOT itself clear the pane, the roll runs once this call's "
+                        + "own turn ends), and 'cancel' (drops a pending request without rolling). "
+                        + "Primary-only. There is deliberately no terminal/session/leadTerminal "
+                        + "parameter: the pane to roll is always resolved from YOUR OWN connection, "
+                        + "never a value you pass, so you can only ever roll yourself — never another "
+                        + "lead. Requires leadRollover: to be configured; when it is not, every action "
+                        + "returns a clean refusal naming NOT_CONFIGURED instead of failing.",
+                objectSchema(Map.of(
+                        "action", stringProp("\"open\", \"confirm\" or \"cancel\""),
+                        "reason", stringProp("Free-text audit note for \"open\" (optional, logged only)"),
+                        "token", stringProp("The token \"open\" returned — required for \"confirm\" and \"cancel\""),
+                        "operatorConfirmed", Map.of("type", "boolean",
+                                "description", "For \"confirm\": your answer to \"has the human operator "
+                                        + "confirmed this wipe\" (default false; only consulted when "
+                                        + "leadRollover.requireOperatorConfirm is true)")),
+                        List.of("action")));
+    }
+
     // --- small helpers -------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
     // The SDK 2.0.0 deprecates its own Tool builders without a stable replacement — isolate it here.
@@ -1929,6 +2239,11 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         return v instanceof Number n ? n.longValue() : null;
     }
 
+    /** {@code true} only when {@code args.get(key)} is the boolean {@code true} — absent/null/anything else is {@code false}. */
+    private static boolean truthy(Map<String, Object> args, String key) {
+        return Boolean.TRUE.equals(args.get(key));
+    }
+
     private static long clamp(long ms) {
         return Math.clamp(ms, 1, MAX_TIMEOUT_MS);
     }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetTool.java

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
+
+import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Optional;
+import java.util.Set;
+
+/**
+ * The one canonical set of MCP tool names this daemon registers (fleetd #469, follow-up to #464).
+ *
+ * <p>Before this enum, the tool surface was written twice with nothing tying the copies together:
+ * once as the literal {@code "fleet_…"} string passed to each tool-schema builder in
+ * {@link FleetMcp}, and again as the case labels of {@link FleetMcp}'s authorization switch. A
+ * reader that needed "what does this server register" — a charter check, in particular — had no
+ * source to ask except scraping {@code FleetMcp.java}'s source text for {@code tool("…")} calls: a
+ * third copy of the same list, and the weakest of the three forms.
+ *
+ * <p>Every reader that needs the registered tool surface now asks this enum instead:
+ *
+ * <ul>
+ *   <li>the tool-schema builders in {@code FleetMcp} pass {@code wireName()} rather than a literal;
+ *   <li>{@code FleetMcp}'s constructor asserts, at startup, that the set of tool names it actually
+ *       registers with the MCP SDK equals {@link #wireNames()} exactly — a canonical entry that is
+ *       never registered, or a registration with no canonical entry backing it, fails the daemon's
+ *       own boot rather than only a test's;
+ *   <li>{@code FleetMcp.toolAction}'s dispatch onto {@code Authz.Action} switches on the enum
+ *       (not the raw string) with no {@code default}, so adding a tool here without pinning its
+ *       action is a compile error, not a run-time throw;
+ *   <li>{@link CharterToolSurface} asks {@link #wireNames()} to check a configured launch charter
+ *       against the live tool surface, instead of scraping source text a third time.
+ * </ul>
+ */
+public enum FleetTool {
+
+    SEND("fleet_send"),
+    REPLY("fleet_reply"),
+    ASK("fleet_ask"),
+    STATUS("fleet_status"),
+    POLL("fleet_poll"),
+    ACK("fleet_ack"),
+    SPAWN("fleet_spawn"),
+    LIST("fleet_list"),
+    STOP("fleet_stop"),
+    PROFILES("fleet_profiles"),
+    WHOAMI("fleet_whoami"),
+    HANDOVER("fleet_handover");
+
+    private final String wireName;
+
+    FleetTool(String wireName) {
+        this.wireName = wireName;
+    }
+
+    /** The name this tool is registered under, and called by, on the wire ({@code "fleet_send"}, …). */
+    public String wireName() {
+        return wireName;
+    }
+
+    private static final Map<String, FleetTool> BY_WIRE_NAME;
+    private static final Set<String> WIRE_NAMES;
+
+    static {
+        Map<String, FleetTool> byName = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        Set<String> names = new LinkedHashSet<>();
+        for (FleetTool tool : values()) {
+            byName.put(tool.wireName, tool);
+            names.add(tool.wireName);
+        }
+        BY_WIRE_NAME = Map.copyOf(byName);
+        WIRE_NAMES = Set.copyOf(names);
+    }
+
+    /** The tool named {@code wireName}, or empty when this daemon registers no such tool. */
+    public static Optional<FleetTool> byWireName(String wireName) {
+        return Optional.ofNullable(BY_WIRE_NAME.get(wireName));
+    }
+
+    /** Every wire name this daemon registers — the canonical tool surface. */
+    public static Set<String> wireNames() {
+        return WIRE_NAMES;
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/OpenCodeLauncher.java

@@ -331,11 +331,22 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
                             + "form — opencode's per-model context limit could not be applied for this profile",
                     cfg.profile(), cfg.model());
         }
+        // fleetd #393: memberSkills seeding (GitWorktrees#seedSkills) copies skill folders into
+        // EVERY provisioned worktree's .claude/skills/ regardless of which kind ultimately spawns
+        // into it — that copy step cannot know the kind, only the caller of GitWorktrees#add does
+        // (see that method's own javadoc). .claude/skills/ is a Claude Code CLI convention the CLI
+        // discovers on its own; opencode has no such discovery, so without this, a seeded skill
+        // never reaches an opencode member even though GitWorktrees logged it as seeded. Read
+        // whatever landed under <cwd>/.claude/skills/ here — the one place in this launcher that
+        // knows both the kind (opencode, by construction: this IS OpenCodeLauncher) and the cwd.
+        List<Path> skillInstructionFiles = skillInstructionFiles(spec.cwd());
         // A config file is needed for the bridge MCP mount, a member charter, the IDE MCP (+ its
-        // guidance overlay, CB-634), a pinned endpoint (CB-508), or a resolvable autoCompactWindow.
+        // guidance overlay, CB-634), a pinned endpoint (CB-508), a resolvable autoCompactWindow, or
+        // at least one seeded skill to deliver via instructions[] (fleetd #393).
         if (cfg.hasMcp() || cfg.hasIdeMcp() || spec.charter() != null || hasCustomProvider(cfg)
-                || wantsContextLimit) {
-            workerEnv.put("OPENCODE_CONFIG", writeConfig(cfg, spec.charter(), spec.cwd()).toString());
+                || wantsContextLimit || !skillInstructionFiles.isEmpty()) {
+            workerEnv.put("OPENCODE_CONFIG",
+                    writeConfig(cfg, spec.charter(), spec.cwd(), skillInstructionFiles).toString());
         }
         applyGitToken(workerEnv, cfg);
         List<String> argv = argvWithResume(argvWithModel(argvWithAuto(cfg), cfg), spec.resumeSessionId());
@@ -358,6 +369,65 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
         return withAgent;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #393: the {@code SKILL.md} paths under {@code <cwd>/.claude/skills/} this launcher can
+     * turn into {@code instructions[]} entries, plus the honest log this ticket asks for — emitted
+     * here, at the one point a skill's fate for THIS spawn is actually known, rather than trusting
+     * {@code GitWorktrees#seedSkills}'s kind-blind "N of M" line to mean "and it will be read."
+     *
+     * <p>Every non-hidden subdirectory of {@code .claude/skills/} is a candidate, whether it got
+     * there via {@code memberSkills:} seeding or because the target repo ships its own copy — this
+     * launcher does not care which; it only cares what it can find at spawn time. A candidate with
+     * a {@code SKILL.md} at its top level (the same shape {@link #writeConfig} already requires for
+     * the charter and IDE-rules instructions entries) is delivered; anything else is a directory
+     * this launcher cannot turn into a flat instructions entry, named explicitly in the log rather
+     * than silently dropped, so a caller sees a real "cannot consume" reason and not just a smaller
+     * number than {@code GitWorktrees}' own count.
+     *
+     * <p>No candidates at all (directory absent or empty) logs nothing — the same
+     * no-log-when-nothing-to-say shape {@link #hasCustomProvider} and friends already follow, and
+     * the shape {@code GitWorktrees#seedSkills} itself uses when {@code memberSkills:} is unset.
+     * A failure to even list the directory is logged and treated as "nothing delivered" — best
+     * effort, must never fail the spawn, matching {@code GitWorktrees#seedSkills}'s own contract.
+     */
+    private List<Path> skillInstructionFiles(String cwd) {
+        if (cwd == null || cwd.isBlank()) {
+            return List.of();
+        }
+        Path skillsDir = Path.of(cwd, ".claude", "skills");
+        if (!Files.isDirectory(skillsDir)) {
+            return List.of();
+        }
+        List<Path> candidates;
+        try (var listing = Files.list(skillsDir)) {
+            candidates = listing.filter(Files::isDirectory)
+                    .filter(p -> !p.getFileName().toString().startsWith("."))
+                    .sorted()
+                    .toList();
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            log.warn("could not scan {} for skill folders to deliver to this opencode member: {}",
+                    skillsDir, e.getMessage());
+            return List.of();
+        }
+        if (candidates.isEmpty()) {
+            return List.of();
+        }
+        List<Path> delivered = candidates.stream()
+                .map(dir -> dir.resolve("SKILL.md"))
+                .filter(Files::isRegularFile)
+                .toList();
+        List<String> undeliverable = candidates.stream()
+                .filter(dir -> !Files.isRegularFile(dir.resolve("SKILL.md")))
+                .map(dir -> dir.getFileName().toString())
+                .toList();
+        log.info("skill delivery: {} of {} skill folder(s) under {} reached this opencode member via "
+                        + "instructions[] (opencode does not read .claude/skills/ natively, unlike "
+                        + "Claude Code){}",
+                delivered.size(), candidates.size(), skillsDir,
+                undeliverable.isEmpty() ? "" : "; no SKILL.md, could not be delivered: " + undeliverable);
+        return delivered;
+    }
+
     /**
      * True when this profile pins its own OpenAI-compatible endpoint (CB-508) rather than using
      * whatever provider opencode resolves by default.
@@ -418,8 +488,15 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      * fresh per-spawn directory under {@link #configRoot}, and return the config file's path for
      * {@code OPENCODE_CONFIG}. The dir is unique per spawn so concurrent workers never race on it;
      * it is best-effort cleaned on JVM exit (worker config is disposable — regenerated every spawn).
+     *
+     * @param skillInstructionFiles fleetd #393: absolute {@code SKILL.md} paths from
+     *                              {@link #skillInstructionFiles(String)}, appended to
+     *                              {@code instructions[]} so a {@code memberSkills:}-seeded skill
+     *                              reaches this opencode member the same way the charter and IDE
+     *                              rules already do.
      */
-    private Path writeConfig(FleetConfig.Profile cfg, String charterText, String cwd) {
+    private Path writeConfig(FleetConfig.Profile cfg, String charterText, String cwd,
+                              List<Path> skillInstructionFiles) {
         try {
             Path dir = Files.createTempDirectory(configParentDir(), "fleetd-opencode-");
             dir.toFile().deleteOnExit();
@@ -447,7 +524,39 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
                 Files.writeString(charter, charterText);
                 charter.toFile().deleteOnExit();
 
-                root.putArray("instructions").add(charter.toAbsolutePath().toString());
+                // fleetd #393 follow-up: withArray, not putArray. putArray REPLACES whatever node
+                // is already at "instructions"; withArray gets-or-creates. All three writers on
+                // this array now use withArray so that write order stops being load-bearing for
+                // whoever adds a fourth.
+                //
+                // Be precise about what this particular line is worth, because an earlier version
+                // of this comment was wrong and claimed too much. THIS call is the one place where
+                // the two idioms are equivalent, and no test can tell them apart: it runs first,
+                // against a still-empty root, so there is never an existing node for putArray to
+                // replace. Measured on the #393 merge: flipping this one call back to putArray
+                // leaves the whole suite green (1618 tests), and always will. The edit is a
+                // readability and future-proofing change with no test behind it, and that is not a
+                // gap anyone can close.
+                //
+                // The ordering hazard is real, just not here. It is the LATER writers that can
+                // destroy earlier entries. Measured on the same merge: flipping the skills writer
+                // below to putArray deletes this charter entry and fails
+                // OpenCodeLauncherTest.instructionsArrayHoldsCharterThenSkillsThenIdeRulesInOrder;
+                // flipping the IDE-rules writer fails that test and
+                // instructionsArrayHoldsCharterThenIdeRulesInOrder. Deleting this line altogether
+                // fails instructionsArrayHoldsExactlyTheCharterWhenNothingElseWritesToIt — the
+                // assertion that a role contract reaches an opencode member at all, which is the
+                // hole that predates #393 and is what actually let the mutation hide.
+                root.withArray("instructions").add(charter.toAbsolutePath().toString());
+            }
+
+            // fleetd #393: each seeded skill's SKILL.md, delivered as a plain instructions[] entry
+            // — the only mechanism opencode has for static guidance text. Unlike Claude Code's
+            // Skill tool, opencode cannot load one of these on demand by name; the content is just
+            // always part of the system prompt from spawn. That is a real difference in HOW the
+            // content reaches the member, not a reason to withhold it.
+            for (Path skillFile : skillInstructionFiles) {
+                root.withArray("instructions").add(skillFile.toAbsolutePath().toString());
             }
 
             if (cfg.hasMcp() || cfg.hasIdeMcp()) {

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/AmqpReplyInbox.java

@@ -394,17 +394,17 @@ public final class AmqpReplyInbox implements ReplyInbox, AutoCloseable {
     }
 
     @Override
-    public void ack(String target, String msgId) {
+    public boolean ack(String target, String msgId) {
         var perTarget = held.get(target);
         if (perTarget == null || perTarget == RELEASED) {
-            return;
+            return false;
         }
         Held h;
         synchronized (perTarget) {
             h = perTarget.remove(msgId);
         }
         if (h == null) {
-            return;                                // never held (or already acked) — no-op
+            return false;                          // never held (or already acked) — no-op
         }
         try {
             synchronized (channelLock) {
@@ -418,6 +418,7 @@ public final class AmqpReplyInbox implements ReplyInbox, AutoCloseable {
             }
             throw new IllegalStateException("cannot ack reply " + msgId + " on " + queueName(target), e);
         }
+        return true;
     }
 
     private DeliverCallback deliverCallback(String target) {

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/InMemoryReplyInbox.java

@@ -59,16 +59,17 @@ public final class InMemoryReplyInbox implements ReplyInbox {
     }
 
     @Override
-    public void ack(String target, String msgId) {
+    public boolean ack(String target, String msgId) {
         if (!owned.contains(target)) {
-            return;
+            return false;
         }
         var perTarget = store.get(target);
-        if (perTarget != null) {
-            //noinspection SynchronizationOnLocalVariableOrMethodParameter
-            synchronized (perTarget) {
-                perTarget.remove(msgId);
-            }
+        if (perTarget == null) {
+            return false;
+        }
+        //noinspection SynchronizationOnLocalVariableOrMethodParameter
+        synchronized (perTarget) {
+            return perTarget.remove(msgId) != null;
         }
     }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/MessageService.java

@@ -826,9 +826,13 @@ public final class MessageService {
     /**
      * Acknowledge a specific reply by {@code msgId} for {@code target}. Removes it from the inbox
      * so that a subsequent drain or peek no longer returns it.
+     *
+     * @return {@code true} if an entry was actually removed, {@code false} if {@code msgId} was not
+     *     in {@code target}'s inbox (wrong id, wrong target, or already acked). The caller —
+     *     {@link dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.FleetMcp#ack} — must not report success on {@code false}.
      */
-    public void ackReply(String target, String msgId) {
-        inbox.ack(target, msgId);
+    public boolean ackReply(String target, String msgId) {
+        return inbox.ack(target, msgId);
     }
 
     /**

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyInbox.java

@@ -46,6 +46,13 @@ public interface ReplyInbox {
     /** Non-destructive snapshot of pending replies for {@code target} (FIFO), empty list if none. */
     List<InboxMessage> peek(String target);
 
-    /** Remove the reply {@code msgId} for {@code target} once the primary has taken it. No-op if absent. */
-    void ack(String target, String msgId);
+    /**
+     * Remove the reply {@code msgId} for {@code target} once the primary has taken it.
+     *
+     * @return {@code true} if an entry was actually removed, {@code false} if there was nothing to
+     *     remove (unknown {@code target}, unowned {@code target}, or a {@code msgId} not held for
+     *     it). A {@code false} is not an error — acking a {@code target} this daemon does not own is
+     *     part of the normal contract, not a failure.
+     */
+    boolean ack(String target, String msgId);
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/peer/PeerLauncher.java

@@ -168,6 +168,23 @@ public interface PeerLauncher {
      * answer for a launcher with no role-pool concept of its own (e.g. a single {@code
      * HerdrPeerLauncher} adapter, which is never reached this way in production: {@code
      * CompositePeerLauncher} always fronts it and resolves roles itself).
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #453: this default is deliberately <em>not</em> abstract — unlike {@link
+     * #spawn(SpawnRequest, PlacementDecision)} (fleetd #450), there is no live defect in inheriting
+     * it today, and the only current single-adapter implementer ({@code HerdrPeerLauncher}) is
+     * correct to do so. But it stays correct only as long as that holds: <strong>if a launcher ever
+     * routes more than one profile per role, it MUST override this method</strong>, or every role
+     * silently resolves to {@link #defaultProfile()} with no error and no log line. {@code
+     * HerdrPeerLauncher.spawn(SpawnRequest, PlacementDecision)} — the override in {@code
+     * dev.ltms.fleet.member}, not the declaration below — names this method and {@link #place}
+     * explicitly as "unoverridden here" for exactly this reason. Read it before adding role-pool
+     * routing to any {@code HerdrPeerLauncher} subclass.
+     *
+     * <p>Who is forced to read which paragraph, because it is not symmetric. A new class that
+     * implements this interface directly must write a body for {@link #spawn(SpawnRequest,
+     * PlacementDecision)}, which is abstract here, so it lands on this javadoc. A subclass of
+     * {@code HerdrPeerLauncher} does not: that class already implements the method, and the
+     * subclass inherits the body. So for a subclass this paragraph is advice, not a gate.
      */
     default String defaultProfileFor(MemberRole role) {
         return defaultProfile();
@@ -228,6 +245,13 @@ public interface PeerLauncher {
      * placement condition — the right answer for a launcher with no pool or placement-policy
      * concept of its own, matching {@link #defaultProfileFor}'s own default.
      *
+     * <p>fleetd #453: same reasoning as {@link #defaultProfileFor}'s own #453 note — this default
+     * is deliberately not abstract (no live defect today, correct for the sole single-adapter
+     * implementer), but <strong>a launcher that ever routes more than one profile per role MUST
+     * override this method too</strong>, or placement silently ignores {@code role} for it. See
+     * {@code HerdrPeerLauncher.spawn(SpawnRequest, PlacementDecision)}'s javadoc, which names this
+     * method as "unoverridden here" and why that is correct only for a single-profile adapter.
+     *
      * @throws RuntimeException (implementation-specific, typically a placement exception) if no
      *                          candidate in {@code role}'s pool is currently placeable
      */

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/BackendQuarantine.java

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package dev.ltms.fleet.placement;
 import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Objects;
+import java.util.Optional;
 import java.util.OptionalLong;
 import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
 import java.util.function.LongSupplier;
@@ -21,46 +22,158 @@ import java.util.function.LongSupplier;
  * <p>The clock is injected ({@link LongSupplier}, conventionally {@code System::nanoTime} like
  * {@code FleetHealthMonitor}), never read inline, so a quarantine's expiry is testable without a
  * real sleep.
+ *
+ * <h2>Escalation (fleetd #466)</h2>
+ * A flat cooldown does not fit every exhaustion. A backend that reports "out of capacity for the
+ * rest of the hour" recovers in one cooldown; a weekly subscription limit does not — it keeps
+ * reporting exhausted on every attempt made before the window resets, so a flat 30-minute cooldown
+ * (the default {@code cooldownNanos}) means roughly 336 pointless spawn attempts across a week, one
+ * every cooldown.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>This class only ever sees the exhaustion signal.</strong> Its only production caller is
+ * {@code Fleetd.exhaustionSink}, wired to fire on a {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED} classification alone.
+ * The daemon's other outage state — a credential "cooling off" after repeated non-exhaustion
+ * backend errors (an HTTP 5xx storm, say) — is a separate mechanism, {@code BackendOutagePolicy},
+ * with its own short fixed 60s cooldown and no repeat tracking. The two are never merged: escalating
+ * on a cooling-off signal would turn a transient 5xx storm into a multi-hour backoff, which is
+ * exactly the failure this ticket is not asking for. Confirmed by reading every call site of
+ * {@link #quarantine} — {@code BackendOutagePolicy} has its own {@code coolOff} method and never
+ * calls this one.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>Mechanism</strong> — the {@link #withEscalation} constructors track, per credential, how
+ * many times in a row {@link #quarantine} has been called without an intervening "quiet" gap.
+ * Each call computes {@code cooldownNanos * backoffMultiplier ^ (repeatCount - 1)}, capped at
+ * {@code maxCooldownNanos}. A call counts as a continuation of the same streak — {@code repeatCount}
+ * increments — when it arrives no more than one base {@code cooldownNanos} after the previous
+ * quarantine's deadline (this covers both "still quarantined" and "quarantine just expired and it
+ * was exhausted again immediately"); otherwise the streak resets and this call is treated as a fresh
+ * first occurrence at the base cooldown.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>Reset, honestly stated.</strong> The ideal reset signal is "the cooldown expired and the
+ * next attempt succeeded" — but nothing in this codebase reports a spawn success back to this class
+ * (checked: {@code SessionManager} and {@code CompositePeerLauncher} never call any method here
+ * except {@link #quarantine}/{@link #isQuarantined}/{@link #remainingSeconds}, none of which is a
+ * success hook). Lacking that signal, the reset used here is a time-based proxy: a base-cooldown's
+ * worth of quiet — no exhaustion report for that credential — since the last quarantine ended. It is
+ * not proof the credential started working again, only the best available evidence without adding an
+ * active probe, which is out of scope by the operator's own design constraint (no automatic probing
+ * of a limited backend).
+ *
+ * <p><strong>Ceiling.</strong> {@code maxCooldownNanos} bounds the growth — an unbounded backoff is a
+ * permanent, unrecoverable-without-a-restart outage, which would be worse than the flat-rate bug this
+ * escalation fixes. {@link #withEscalation(LongSupplier, long)} defaults the ceiling to
+ * {@value #DEFAULT_MAX_COOLDOWN_MULTIPLE}x the base cooldown (12x the 1800s default ≈ 6 hours), so a
+ * chronically exhausted credential still gets re-tried roughly every 6 hours instead of every 30
+ * minutes — about a dozen attempts a week instead of ~336.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>Backward compatibility.</strong> The original two-argument {@link #BackendQuarantine(
+ * LongSupplier, long)} constructor is unchanged in behaviour: it is exactly {@code
+ * withEscalation}'s mechanism with {@code backoffMultiplier = 1.0} and {@code maxCooldownNanos =
+ * cooldownNanos}, which collapses the formula back to the original flat {@code now + cooldownNanos}
+ * on every call regardless of history. Every existing call site (roughly 20 across the test suite,
+ * plus {@link #none()}) keeps its current shape and behaviour unchanged.
  */
 public final class BackendQuarantine {
 
-    private final ConcurrentHashMap<String, Long> quarantinedUntilNanos = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+    /** Default growth per consecutive exhaustion streak — see the class doc's Mechanism section. */
+    static final double DEFAULT_BACKOFF_MULTIPLIER = 2.0;
+    /** Default ceiling, expressed as a multiple of the base cooldown — see the class doc's Ceiling section. */
+    static final long DEFAULT_MAX_COOLDOWN_MULTIPLE = 12;
+
+    private final ConcurrentHashMap<String, QuarantineState> quarantines = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
     private final LongSupplier nowNanos;
     private final long cooldownNanos;
+    private final double backoffMultiplier;
+    private final long maxCooldownNanos;
     /** True only for {@link #none()}. See {@link #quarantine} for why this exists. */
     private final boolean inert;
 
+    /** How many consecutive exhaustion reports a credential is on, and when the resulting cooldown ends. */
+    private record QuarantineState(int repeatCount, long deadlineNanos) {
+    }
+
     /**
+     * Flat cooldown, unchanged from before fleetd #466 — every {@link #quarantine} call blocks the
+     * credential for exactly {@code cooldownNanos}, regardless of how many times it was called
+     * before. Equivalent to {@link #withEscalation} with no growth ({@code backoffMultiplier = 1.0})
+     * and a ceiling equal to the base cooldown, so it degrades to the identical {@code now +
+     * cooldownNanos} formula every call. Kept for the existing call sites that want a fixed cooldown
+     * (and for tests exercising the fixed-cooldown shape in isolation); production wiring uses
+     * {@link #withEscalation} instead.
+     *
      * @param nowNanos      monotonic clock, injected for testability
      * @param cooldownNanos how long a fresh {@link #quarantine} call blocks the credential for;
      *                      must be positive
      */
     public BackendQuarantine(LongSupplier nowNanos, long cooldownNanos) {
-        this(nowNanos, cooldownNanos, false);
+        this(nowNanos, cooldownNanos, 1.0, cooldownNanos, false);
     }
 
-    private BackendQuarantine(LongSupplier nowNanos, long cooldownNanos, boolean inert) {
+    /**
+     * Escalating cooldown (fleetd #466) — see the class doc's Mechanism/Reset/Ceiling sections.
+     *
+     * @param nowNanos          monotonic clock, injected for testability
+     * @param cooldownNanos     base cooldown, applied to a fresh (non-streak) exhaustion; must be
+     *                          positive
+     * @param backoffMultiplier growth per consecutive exhaustion; must be {@code >= 1.0} ({@code 1.0}
+     *                          disables growth and is exactly the flat two-argument constructor)
+     * @param maxCooldownNanos  ceiling on the escalated cooldown; must be {@code >= cooldownNanos}
+     */
+    public BackendQuarantine(LongSupplier nowNanos, long cooldownNanos, double backoffMultiplier,
+            long maxCooldownNanos) {
+        this(nowNanos, cooldownNanos, backoffMultiplier, maxCooldownNanos, false);
+    }
+
+    private BackendQuarantine(LongSupplier nowNanos, long cooldownNanos, double backoffMultiplier,
+            long maxCooldownNanos, boolean inert) {
         this.nowNanos = Objects.requireNonNull(nowNanos, "nowNanos");
         if (cooldownNanos <= 0) {
             throw new IllegalArgumentException("cooldownNanos must be positive: " + cooldownNanos);
         }
+        if (backoffMultiplier < 1.0) {
+            throw new IllegalArgumentException("backoffMultiplier must be >= 1.0: " + backoffMultiplier);
+        }
+        if (maxCooldownNanos < cooldownNanos) {
+            throw new IllegalArgumentException(
+                    "maxCooldownNanos must be >= cooldownNanos: " + maxCooldownNanos + " < " + cooldownNanos);
+        }
         this.cooldownNanos = cooldownNanos;
+        this.backoffMultiplier = backoffMultiplier;
+        this.maxCooldownNanos = maxCooldownNanos;
         this.inert = inert;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Escalating cooldown with the fleetd #466 default shape: cooldown doubles
+     * ({@value #DEFAULT_BACKOFF_MULTIPLIER}x) per consecutive exhaustion streak, capped at
+     * {@value #DEFAULT_MAX_COOLDOWN_MULTIPLE}x the base cooldown. This is what production wiring
+     * ({@code Fleetd.main}) uses.
+     *
+     * @param nowNanos      monotonic clock, injected for testability
+     * @param cooldownNanos base cooldown, applied to a fresh (non-streak) exhaustion; must be positive
+     */
+    public static BackendQuarantine withEscalation(LongSupplier nowNanos, long cooldownNanos) {
+        return new BackendQuarantine(nowNanos, cooldownNanos, DEFAULT_BACKOFF_MULTIPLIER,
+                cooldownNanos * DEFAULT_MAX_COOLDOWN_MULTIPLE, false);
+    }
+
     /**
      * Inert quarantine — {@link #quarantine} does nothing on this instance, so nothing is ever
      * quarantined. The explicit stand-in a caller (or a test not exercising this feature) passes
      * instead of a defaulting overload, exactly like {@code ExhaustedPatternLookup.none()}.
      */
     public static BackendQuarantine none() {
-        return new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, 1, true);
+        return new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, 1, 1.0, 1, true);
     }
 
     /**
-     * Quarantine {@code credentialId} for the configured cooldown, starting now. A repeat call while
-     * already quarantined restarts the cooldown at full length — a fresh refusal is fresh evidence the
-     * account is still exhausted, not a reason to let an earlier, shorter wait stand.
+     * Quarantine {@code credentialId} starting now. On a flat instance (the two-argument
+     * constructor) this always blocks for exactly {@code cooldownNanos}, restarting the cooldown at
+     * full length on every call — a fresh refusal is fresh evidence the account is still exhausted,
+     * not a reason to let an earlier, shorter wait stand. On an escalating instance ({@link
+     * #withEscalation}) the cooldown grows with each call that arrives within one base cooldown of
+     * the previous deadline, and resets to the base cooldown once a call arrives after a longer gap
+     * — see the class doc.
      *
      * <p>On {@link #none()} this is a no-op. It has to be: that instance holds a clock frozen at 0,
      * so recording a deadline would produce a quarantine that never expires — a credential locked out
@@ -73,7 +186,13 @@ public final class BackendQuarantine {
         if (inert) {
             return;
         }
-        quarantinedUntilNanos.put(credentialId, nowNanos.getAsLong() + cooldownNanos);
+        long now = nowNanos.getAsLong();
+        quarantines.compute(credentialId, (id, prev) -> {
+            int repeatCount = (prev == null || now - prev.deadlineNanos() > cooldownNanos)
+                    ? 1
+                    : prev.repeatCount() + 1;
+            return new QuarantineState(repeatCount, now + escalatedCooldownNanos(repeatCount));
+        });
     }
 
     /** Whether {@code credentialId} is quarantined right now. */
@@ -87,6 +206,49 @@ public final class BackendQuarantine {
         return remaining > 0 ? OptionalLong.of(toSecondsRoundedUp(remaining)) : OptionalLong.empty();
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Remaining seconds together with which consecutive exhaustion this is (fleetd #466 scope item
+     * 2) — {@code repeatCount} 1 for a first occurrence, 2 for the second in a row, and so on; see
+     * {@link #quarantine}'s class-doc Mechanism section for exactly when a call continues a streak
+     * versus starts a fresh one.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>Read together, off the one {@link QuarantineState} entry {@link #quarantine} itself
+     * wrote</strong> — a single {@code quarantines.get(credentialId)}, never a separate lookup or a
+     * value re-derived from {@code remainingSeconds} (e.g. inverting {@link
+     * #escalatedCooldownNanos}). That inversion is not just extra work to avoid: once a streak has
+     * hit {@code maxCooldownNanos}, every further consecutive exhaustion reports the identical
+     * cooldown, so a derivation that starts from the cooldown value cannot tell the 4th repeat from
+     * the 9th — only the stored {@code repeatCount} can. This is the same rule {@code
+     * CompositePeerLauncher.modelGateState()} documents for its own gate/report pair: the report
+     * reads the exact accessor the behaviour reads, so it can never disagree with what actually
+     * happened (the fleetd #404/#422 lesson). {@code fleet_profiles}/{@code fleet_list}/{@code GET
+     * /profiles} all call this — never {@link #remainingSeconds} plus a second, independent count —
+     * for exactly that reason.
+     *
+     * @return empty when {@code credentialId} is not currently quarantined (including on {@link
+     *         #none()}, which quarantines nothing)
+     */
+    public Optional<Status> status(String credentialId) {
+        QuarantineState state = quarantines.get(credentialId);
+        if (state == null) {
+            return Optional.empty();
+        }
+        long remaining = state.deadlineNanos() - nowNanos.getAsLong();
+        return remaining > 0
+                ? Optional.of(new Status(toSecondsRoundedUp(remaining), state.repeatCount()))
+                : Optional.empty();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param remainingSeconds seconds left on the quarantine, identical to {@link
+     *                          #remainingSeconds(String)}'s answer for the same credential at the
+     *                          same instant
+     * @param repeatCount       1 for a first occurrence, 2 for the second consecutive one, etc. —
+     *                          see {@link #status(String)}
+     */
+    public record Status(long remainingSeconds, int repeatCount) {
+    }
+
     /**
      * Every currently-quarantined credential id and its remaining seconds (CB-578 stage B fleet
      * reporting) — expired entries are never included. Not pruned from the backing map here: it stays
@@ -95,8 +257,8 @@ public final class BackendQuarantine {
      */
     public Map<String, Long> activeRemainingSeconds() {
         Map<String, Long> out = new LinkedHashMap<>();
-        quarantinedUntilNanos.forEach((credentialId, deadline) -> {
-            long remaining = deadline - nowNanos.getAsLong();
+        quarantines.forEach((credentialId, state) -> {
+            long remaining = state.deadlineNanos() - nowNanos.getAsLong();
             if (remaining > 0) {
                 out.put(credentialId, toSecondsRoundedUp(remaining));
             }
@@ -105,8 +267,14 @@ public final class BackendQuarantine {
     }
 
     private long remainingNanos(String credentialId) {
-        Long deadline = quarantinedUntilNanos.get(credentialId);
-        return deadline == null ? 0L : deadline - nowNanos.getAsLong();
+        QuarantineState state = quarantines.get(credentialId);
+        return state == null ? 0L : state.deadlineNanos() - nowNanos.getAsLong();
+    }
+
+    /** {@code cooldownNanos * backoffMultiplier ^ (repeatCount - 1)}, capped at {@code maxCooldownNanos}. */
+    private long escalatedCooldownNanos(int repeatCount) {
+        double raw = cooldownNanos * Math.pow(backoffMultiplier, repeatCount - 1);
+        return raw >= (double) maxCooldownNanos ? maxCooldownNanos : (long) raw;
     }
 
     private static long toSecondsRoundedUp(long nanos) {

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/GitWorktrees.java

@@ -690,14 +690,18 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
      * {@code fleet.seededSkillsNote}, readable with {@code git config --worktree --get-all
      * fleet.seededSkills}.
      *
-     * <p><b>Claude Code specific by construction, not by a backend check here.</b> Only {@code
-     * .claude/skills/<name>/SKILL.md} is a path any launcher reads today (opencode's equivalent is a
-     * different shape under {@code .opencode/agent}, out of scope — see issue #362). This method
-     * only copies files; like {@link #isolateToolSurface} — which neutralizes BOTH {@code .mcp.json}
-     * and {@code opencode.json} unconditionally — it runs the same for every worktree regardless of
-     * which backend ultimately spawns into it, because the backend is not yet chosen at {@link #add}
-     * time. A seeded {@code .claude/skills/} directory in an opencode member's worktree is simply
-     * never read by that launcher.
+     * <p><b>Kind-blind by construction, not by a backend check here — this used to be a real gap
+     * (fleetd #393).</b> This method only copies files; like {@link #isolateToolSurface} — which
+     * neutralizes BOTH {@code .mcp.json} and {@code opencode.json} unconditionally — it runs the
+     * same for every worktree regardless of which backend ultimately spawns into it, because no
+     * caller of {@link #add} hands this class a kind to consult. Before fleetd #393, that made the
+     * log line below a false claim of success for a {@code kind: opencode} member: opencode has no
+     * built-in discovery of {@code .claude/skills/}, unlike the Claude Code CLI, so a seeded skill
+     * never reached one. It now does — {@code OpenCodeLauncher#skillInstructionFiles} reads
+     * whatever this method copied into {@code .claude/skills/} and appends each {@code SKILL.md} to
+     * the generated {@code instructions[]} — but that delivery, and the log line that honestly
+     * claims it (kind-aware, unlike this one), happens at the launcher, once the kind is actually
+     * known, not here.
      */
     private void seedSkills(String worktreePath) {
         if (memberSkillsSource == null) {
@@ -739,7 +743,15 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
         if (detail.isEmpty()) {
             detail = "no skill folders found under " + source;
         }
-        log.info("skill seeding: {} of {} candidate(s) from {} into {}/.claude/skills — {}",
+        // fleetd #393: this only claims the copy step, deliberately — it cannot know the member
+        // kind that will spawn into this worktree (see this method's own javadoc), so it must not
+        // read as "and the member will act on it." Whether that is true depends on the kind: the
+        // Claude Code CLI discovers .claude/skills/ on its own; OpenCodeLauncher logs its own
+        // "skill delivery" line, once the kind is known, naming what it could and could not turn
+        // into instructions[].
+        log.info("skill seeding: {} of {} candidate(s) from {} into {}/.claude/skills — {} "
+                        + "(whether the spawned member can act on this depends on its kind — see "
+                        + "the launcher's own log for that)",
                 seeded.size(), seeded.size() + kept.size(), source, worktreePath, detail);
         if (seeded.isEmpty()) {
             return;

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdBackendQuarantineWiringTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #466 follow-up: {@code Fleetd.main} builds the daemon's one {@code BackendQuarantine}
+ * from {@link dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine#withEscalation(java.util.function.LongSupplier,
+ * long)} — the escalating factory — rather than the plain two-argument constructor, which is still a
+ * flat cooldown (kept for backward compatibility, see that class's doc). {@code
+ * BackendQuarantineTest} proves {@code withEscalation} itself escalates, is ceilinged, and resets;
+ * it says nothing about which one {@code main} actually calls.
+ *
+ * <p>Measured directly: reverting {@code main} to {@code new BackendQuarantine(System::nanoTime,
+ * TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds()))} — the pre-#466 flat call — compiles
+ * with 0 errors and leaves the entire 1608-test suite (including every {@code BackendQuarantineTest}
+ * case) green, because no other test constructs its {@code BackendQuarantine} through {@code main};
+ * every one of them builds its own instance directly. That silent regression is exactly the shape
+ * {@link FleetdLeadSeatWiringTest} and {@link FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest} already guard
+ * against for their own constructor arguments — this is the same class of gap for fleetd #466's
+ * factory choice, following their approach.
+ *
+ * <p><b>This test checks source text, not runtime behaviour.</b> It never constructs a {@code
+ * BackendQuarantine} and never runs {@code main} — a green result here proves only that the exact
+ * text {@code main} calls {@code BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(...)} rather than the flat
+ * constructor. It does not prove that call actually executes at startup (no test here starts the
+ * daemon), and it does not prove the escalation reaches a real backend or credential — only
+ * {@code BackendQuarantineTest} proves the factory's own behaviour, and only a live daemon proves
+ * the wiring runs.
+ */
+class FleetdBackendQuarantineWiringTest {
+
+    private static String fleetdSource() throws Exception {
+        return Files.readString(Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] main's BackendQuarantine local is still built from BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(...)")
+    void mainStillWiresTheEscalatingQuarantineFactory() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains(
+                        "BackendQuarantine quarantine = BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(System::nanoTime,\n"
+                                + "                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds()));"),
+                "Fleetd.main's BackendQuarantine local must still be built from "
+                        + "BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(System::nanoTime, "
+                        + "TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds())). Reverting to the flat "
+                        + "two-argument constructor (fleetd #466's measured regression) compiles with 0 errors "
+                        + "and leaves the whole suite green, including every BackendQuarantineTest case that "
+                        + "proves the escalation itself works — this source check is what must go red instead. "
+                        + "A reverted daemon would go back to retrying a weekly subscription limit on every "
+                        + "flat ~30-minute cooldown, about 336 times across the week.");
+
+        // Negative form of the same check: the pre-#466 flat call, if it ever reappears at this
+        // declaration, must not be mistaken for the escalating one by a looser positive-only check.
+        assertFalse(source.contains(
+                        "BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(System::nanoTime,\n"
+                                + "                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds()));"),
+                "main's BackendQuarantine local must never regress to the flat two-argument constructor");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNotNull;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertSame;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #474: proves the exact wiring {@code Fleetd.main} uses to construct its live {@code
+ * ConfigRef} — {@code new ConfigRef(configPath, cfg, Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools)}
+ * — actually makes {@link ConfigRef#reload()} refuse a charter that names an MCP tool the server
+ * does not register, the same way {@code Fleetd.main} itself refuses one at startup (see {@code
+ * FleetdStartupValidationTest#mainRefusesACharterNamingAnUnregisteredTool}).
+ *
+ * <p>{@code dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRefTest} pins the same behaviour through a locally-built
+ * {@code Consumer<FleetConfig>} adapter that calls the same production {@code CharterToolSurface}
+ * method, because that test lives in {@code dev.ltms.fleet.config} and cannot see {@code
+ * Fleetd#assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} (package-private to {@code dev.ltms.fleet}). This
+ * class is the companion proof that lives where the real method reference is visible, so the literal
+ * expression {@code Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} — not just an equivalent — is
+ * what gets exercised. {@code Fleetd.main} itself cannot be driven this far in a unit test: every
+ * fixture in {@code FleetdStartupValidationTest} is deliberately invalid so {@code main} throws
+ * before opening a socket, binding Javalin, or doing anything else with a real side effect, so a
+ * test cannot get {@code main} far enough to hold a running daemon it could then reload — this test
+ * builds the {@code ConfigRef} the same way {@code main} does and drives {@link ConfigRef#reload()}
+ * directly instead, the same shape {@code FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest} and its
+ * siblings already use for the rest of {@code Fleetd.main}'s wiring.
+ */
+class FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest {
+
+    private static final String BASE = """
+            bind:
+              host: 127.0.0.1
+              port: 8765
+            herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
+            profiles:
+              sonnet:
+                baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                model: sonnet
+            guard:
+              offSubscriptionHosts:
+                - gx00.gw
+            """;
+
+    @Test
+    void reloadRefusesACharterNamingAnUnregisteredToolThroughFleetdsOwnWiring(@TempDir Path dir)
+            throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, BASE + """
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through fleet_reply.
+                """);
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(f, FleetConfig.load(f),
+                Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools);
+        FleetConfig before = config.get();
+
+        Files.writeString(f, BASE + """
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through bridge_send.
+                """);
+        ConfigRef.Outcome out = config.reload();
+
+        assertFalse(out.applied());
+        assertNotNull(out.error());
+        assertTrue(out.error().contains("dev"), out.error());
+        assertTrue(out.error().contains("bridge_send"), out.error());
+        assertSame(before, config.get());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void reloadAcceptsACharterNamingOnlyRegisteredToolsThroughFleetdsOwnWiring(@TempDir Path dir)
+            throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, BASE + """
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: old charter
+                """);
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(f, FleetConfig.load(f),
+                Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools);
+
+        Files.writeString(f, BASE + """
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through fleet_reply.
+                """);
+        ConfigRef.Outcome out = config.reload();
+
+        assertTrue(out.applied());
+        assertEquals("config reloaded", out.summary());
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdConfigRefWiringTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #474 follow-up: {@code Fleetd.main} builds its live {@code ConfigRef} from the
+ * three-argument constructor, {@code new ConfigRef(configPath, cfg,
+ * Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools)}, so a reload runs the same charter tool-surface
+ * gate startup does (see {@link dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef}'s class doc, "fleetd #474" bullet).
+ * {@code ConfigRefTest} and {@code FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest} prove the
+ * three-argument constructor and the {@code Fleetd.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} adapter
+ * work correctly together — both build their OWN {@code ConfigRef} with that constructor, so neither
+ * proves {@code main} still CHOOSES the three-argument form over the plain two-argument {@code new
+ * ConfigRef(configPath, cfg)}.
+ *
+ * <p>Measured directly: reverting {@code Fleetd.java}'s {@code config} local to the two-argument
+ * constructor compiles with 0 errors and leaves the entire 1633-test suite green — including every
+ * {@code ConfigRefTest} and {@code FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest} case — because
+ * neither of those tests constructs its {@code ConfigRef} through {@code main}; both build their own
+ * instance directly, wired with the check by hand. That silent regression is exactly the shape
+ * {@link FleetdBackendQuarantineWiringTest}, {@link FleetdLeadSeatWiringTest} and {@link
+ * FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest} already guard against for their own constructor arguments —
+ * this class is the same class of gap for fleetd #474's {@code extraValidation} argument, following
+ * their approach.
+ *
+ * <p><b>This test checks source text, not runtime behaviour.</b> It never constructs a {@code
+ * ConfigRef} and never runs {@code main} — a green result here proves only that the exact text
+ * {@code main} contains is the three-argument construction with {@code
+ * Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools}. It does not prove that call actually executes at
+ * startup (no test here starts the daemon), and it does not prove the reload gate itself works —
+ * only {@code ConfigRefTest} and {@code FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest} prove the
+ * behaviour; only a live daemon proves the wiring runs.
+ */
+class FleetdConfigRefWiringTest {
+
+    private static String fleetdSource() throws Exception {
+        return Files.readString(Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] main still builds config from the three-argument ConfigRef constructor")
+    void mainStillWiresTheThreeArgumentConfigRefConstructor() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+
+        // A broken read (wrong working directory, wrong path, a file that came back empty) would
+        // make the assertFalse below pass vacuously — a "clean" negative check that actually
+        // checked nothing. Guard against that first, with an anchor that has nothing to do with
+        // this mutation, so a bad read fails loudly here instead of silently proving nothing below.
+        assertTrue(source.contains("public final class Fleetd"),
+                "fleetdSource() did not read anything usable — src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java "
+                        + "did not come back containing its own class declaration. The assertFalse below "
+                        + "would pass vacuously on a broken read; fix the read before trusting this test.");
+
+        assertTrue(source.contains(
+                        "ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(configPath, cfg, "
+                                + "Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools);"),
+                "Fleetd.main's config local must still be built from the three-argument ConfigRef "
+                        + "constructor, with Fleetd::assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools as "
+                        + "extraValidation. Reverting to the plain two-argument constructor (fleetd #474's "
+                        + "measured M2 regression) compiles with 0 errors and leaves the whole suite green — "
+                        + "including ConfigRefTest and FleetdConfigRefCharterToolSurfaceWiringTest, because "
+                        + "neither builds its ConfigRef through main — this source check is what must go "
+                        + "red instead. A reverted daemon would accept, through a reload with no restart, "
+                        + "exactly the charter that #469/#474 already refuse at startup.");
+
+        // Negative form of the same check: the pre-#474 two-argument call, if it ever reappears at
+        // this declaration, must not be mistaken for the three-argument one by a looser
+        // positive-only check — this is the M2 mutation this test exists to kill.
+        assertFalse(source.contains("ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(configPath, cfg);"),
+                "main's config local must never regress to the plain two-argument ConfigRef "
+                        + "constructor — that drops the reload-path charter check (fleetd #474's measured "
+                        + "M2 mutation) with no other test catching it");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest.java

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ package dev.ltms.fleet;
 
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.LiveExhaustedPatterns;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.FleetMcp;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
@@ -11,16 +12,31 @@ import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.util.Map;
-import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
 
 /**
- * fleetd #404: {@code exhaustionDetectionArmed} must describe the startup pattern map, not the
- * reloaded config snapshot.
+ * fleetd #446: {@code exhaustionDetectionArmed} must describe the LIVE config, not a startup
+ * snapshot — the opposite of what fleetd #404 asked for. #404 pinned {@code exhaustedPattern} as
+ * compiled once at startup (matching {@code CompletionResolver}'s then-frozen behaviour); #446's
+ * whole point is that both sides — the classification {@code CompletionResolver} enforces and the
+ * {@code exhaustionDetectionArmed} field this reports — now read the SAME live {@link
+ * LiveExhaustedPatterns} instance, so a reload arms or disarms detection with no restart, and the
+ * report can never disagree with the behaviour (the fleetd #404 rule, now upheld for real instead
+ * of by freezing both sides).
  *
  * <p>This test needs a reload. At startup the two snapshots agree, so a test of only a newly
  * started daemon would not detect a live {@code config.get()} lookup in the report field.
+ *
+ * <p><b>The hotness proof criterion 1 demands:</b> run this against the fixed code (green) and
+ * against the pre-#446 compile site — {@code Fleetd.main}'s {@code exhaustedPatternsByProfile}
+ * compiled once into a {@code Map<String, Pattern>} at startup, handed to {@code quarantineSource}
+ * — and show it fails there. See the class doc history above: that shape is exactly what
+ * {@code reloadedPatternArmsDetectionWithNoRestart} below is written to catch, and it is the test
+ * that used to assert the opposite (see git history for this file's pre-#446 version, which
+ * asserted {@code assertFalse(...)} on the identical scenario this now asserts {@code assertTrue}
+ * on).
  */
 class FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest {
 
@@ -54,41 +70,68 @@ class FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest {
             """;
 
     @Test
-    @DisplayName("reloading an exhaustedPattern does not arm the startup detection source")
-    void reloadedPatternDoesNotChangeTheArmedFieldUntilRestart(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+    @DisplayName("reloading a profile's exhaustedPattern IN arms exhaustionDetectionArmed, no restart")
+    void reloadedPatternArmsDetectionWithNoRestart(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path file = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
         Files.writeString(file, NO_PATTERN);
         ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(file, FleetConfig.load(file));
 
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource before = Fleetd.quarantineSource(config, BackendQuarantine.none(),
+                new LiveExhaustedPatterns(() -> config.get().profiles()), Map.of());
+        assertFalse(before.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("terra"),
+                "no exhaustedPattern configured yet — must report unarmed");
+
         Files.writeString(file, WITH_PATTERN);
         assertTrue(config.reload().applied());
         assertTrue(config.get().profiles().get("terra").hasExhaustedPattern());
 
-        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = Fleetd.quarantineSource(config, BackendQuarantine.none(),
-                Map.of());
-        assertFalse(source.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("terra"),
-                "exhaustionDetectionArmed must use the startup pattern map, not config.get()");
+        // Re-read exhaustedPatternArmed off the SAME QuarantineSource built BEFORE the reload — no
+        // new object, no new wiring — to prove the field itself is live, not merely that a freshly
+        // built source would be. This is the exact axis the pre-#446 code fails on: the same
+        // Function<String,Boolean> lambda, called again after a reload, sees the new answer only if
+        // it re-reads config.get() on every call rather than a value captured earlier.
+        assertTrue(before.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("terra"),
+                "exhaustionDetectionArmed must read the LIVE config on every call — fleetd #446 made "
+                        + "this hot; it must reflect a reload with no restart and no new QuarantineSource");
     }
 
     @Test
-    @DisplayName("a profile in the startup pattern map is reported as armed")
-    void aProfileInTheStartupMapIsArmed(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
-        // fleetd #404, second direction. The test above only ever passes an EMPTY startup map, so
-        // it cannot tell a correct lookup from one that is permanently off. Measured: replacing the
-        // armed lambda with `profile -> false` left the whole suite green at 1475 tests. That
-        // mutation would make #395's visibility feature dead — an operator fixing a detection gap
-        // would be told the gap is still open after fixing it, forever. Both directions are needed:
-        // this test is the only thing that fails when the field stops reporting armed at all.
+    @DisplayName("reloading exhaustedPattern OUT disarms exhaustionDetectionArmed, no restart")
+    void reloadedPatternRemovalDisarmsDetectionWithNoRestart(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path file = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
         Files.writeString(file, WITH_PATTERN);
         ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(file, FleetConfig.load(file));
 
         FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = Fleetd.quarantineSource(config, BackendQuarantine.none(),
-                Map.of("terra", Pattern.compile("usage limit")));
+                new LiveExhaustedPatterns(() -> config.get().profiles()), Map.of());
+        assertTrue(source.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("terra"),
+                "exhaustedPattern is configured from the start — must report armed");
+
+        Files.writeString(file, NO_PATTERN);
+        assertTrue(config.reload().applied());
+
+        assertFalse(source.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("terra"),
+                "removing exhaustedPattern and reloading must disarm detection with no restart — an "
+                        + "operator turning detection off (e.g. while debugging a false positive) "
+                        + "must see that reflected immediately, exactly like arming it is");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a profile with no exhaustedPattern configured is reported unarmed")
+    void aProfileWithNoPatternIsUnarmed(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        // fleetd #404's second direction, carried forward: this test alone fails if
+        // exhaustedPatternArmed degenerates to a constant `profile -> true` — it needs at least one
+        // profile that is genuinely unarmed to catch that.
+        Path file = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(file, WITH_PATTERN);
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(file, FleetConfig.load(file));
+
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = Fleetd.quarantineSource(config, BackendQuarantine.none(),
+                new LiveExhaustedPatterns(() -> config.get().profiles()), Map.of());
 
         assertTrue(source.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("terra"),
-                "a profile whose pattern was compiled at startup must report armed");
+                "a profile whose exhaustedPattern is configured must report armed");
         assertFalse(source.exhaustedPatternArmed().apply("sonnet"),
-                "a profile absent from the startup map must not report armed");
+                "a profile absent from config entirely must not report armed");
     }
 }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdExhaustionSinkWarningTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.Level;
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger;
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.spi.ILoggingEvent;
+import ch.qos.logback.core.read.ListAppender;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustionSink;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionManager;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #446 follow-up (round 3): round 2's {@link FleetdUsageLimitFixWarningTest} calls {@link
+ * Fleetd#usageLimitFixWarning}/{@link Fleetd#usageLimitFixWarningNoModel} directly, which pins
+ * the two methods' TEXT but cannot see whether {@link Fleetd#exhaustionSink}'s {@code log.warn}
+ * call actually invokes either one, or invokes the right one. A mutation battery run against
+ * round 2's merge (1592 green tests) proved both gaps real:
+ *
+ * <ul>
+ *   <li><b>Cell A</b> — replacing the whole ternary result with a literal string
+ *       ({@code "usage-limit fix: MUTANT"}) left every test green;</li>
+ *   <li><b>Cell B</b> — swapping the ternary's two branches, so a profile WITH a {@code model:}
+ *       gets the no-model fallback message and vice versa, was measured unmeasured by the lead
+ *       but the existing test file shows no call that would notice it either.</li>
+ * </ul>
+ *
+ * <p>This class drives {@link Fleetd#exhaustionSink} — the actual factory {@code main} wires,
+ * since round 3's extraction pulled it out of the inline lambda for exactly this reason — and
+ * asserts on the REAL text a {@link ListAppender} attached to {@code Fleetd}'s own logger
+ * captures, mirroring {@code ExhaustedPatternGapReportTest}'s idiom. Chosen over a source-text
+ * assertion (the {@code FleetMcpAuthzTest} {@code everyRegisteredToolHasItsHandlerActionPinned}
+ * idiom) because that route can prove Cell A (the ternary is still there, still built from the
+ * two named methods) but not Cell B (which branch a given profile actually reaches) — this route
+ * answers both from one mechanism, since it reads what the sink actually logged for each shape of
+ * profile.
+ *
+ * <p>Each test filters for the WARN line starting {@code "usage-limit fix:"} specifically — {@link
+ * Fleetd#exhaustionSink} also logs a separate {@code "credential '...' quarantined for..."} WARN
+ * on every call, and asserting against the wrong one would pass or fail for the wrong reason. That
+ * prefix survives even under the M5 mutation above (the mutant keeps the tag, only the body
+ * becomes {@code "MUTANT"}), so the filter itself is not what either mutation defeats.
+ */
+class FleetdExhaustionSinkWarningTest {
+
+    private static final String YAML = """
+            bind:
+              host: 127.0.0.1
+              port: 8765
+            herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
+            profiles:
+              terra:
+                baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                model: claude-opus-5
+              gx:
+                baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+            guard:
+              offSubscriptionHosts:
+                - gx00.gw
+            """;
+
+    private static SessionManager emptyRosterSessions() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig.Profile dummy = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "dummy", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", null,
+                "tab", "fleetd-workers", "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        ClaudeCodeLauncher launcher = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(h), new WorkspaceControl(h),
+                new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")), Map.of(dummy.profile(), dummy), dummy.profile(), _ -> "tok");
+        // Never acquires a session — exhaustionSink's roster lookup is expected to miss and fall
+        // back to the profileHint argument, exactly like OpenCodeLauncher's real call site does
+        // (fleetd #234) — so the sink under test never needs a populated roster.
+        return new SessionManager(launcher);
+    }
+
+    private static ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> attach() {
+        Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(Fleetd.class);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.start();
+        logger.addAppender(appender);
+        return appender;
+    }
+
+    private static void detach(ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender) {
+        ((Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(Fleetd.class)).detachAppender(appender);
+    }
+
+    /** The one WARN line {@code exhaustionSink} builds from the ternary under test, or {@code null}. */
+    private static String fixWarning(ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender) {
+        List<String> warns = appender.list.stream()
+                .filter(e -> e.getLevel() == Level.WARN)
+                .map(ILoggingEvent::getFormattedMessage)
+                .filter(m -> m.startsWith("usage-limit fix:"))
+                .toList();
+        assertTrue(warns.size() == 1,
+                "expected exactly one 'usage-limit fix:' WARN per onExhausted call, got " + warns.size()
+                        + ": " + warns);
+        return warns.getFirst();
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a profile WITH a configured model gets the actionable models.allow fix, not the fallback")
+    void profileWithModelGetsTheActionableFix(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path file = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(file, YAML);
+        FleetConfig cfg = FleetConfig.load(file);
+        ConfigRef config = ConfigRef.fixed(cfg);
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        Map<String, String> reasonByCredential = new HashMap<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = Fleetd.exhaustionSink(emptyRosterSessions(), config, quarantine,
+                reasonByCredential, cfg);
+
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = attach();
+        try {
+            sink.onExhausted("term_x", "The usage limit has been reached", "terra");
+        } finally {
+            detach(appender);
+        }
+
+        String warning = fixWarning(appender);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("terra"), "must name the profile: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("claude-opus-5"), "must name the model: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("enabled: false"), "must name the action: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("models.allow"), "must name where the action goes: " + warning);
+        assertFalse(warning.contains("has no model: configured"),
+                "a profile WITH a model must not get the no-model fallback text: " + warning);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a profile with NO configured model gets the fallback, never a fix that does not exist")
+    void profileWithNoModelGetsTheFallbackNotAFix(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path file = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(file, YAML);
+        FleetConfig cfg = FleetConfig.load(file);
+        ConfigRef config = ConfigRef.fixed(cfg);
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        Map<String, String> reasonByCredential = new HashMap<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = Fleetd.exhaustionSink(emptyRosterSessions(), config, quarantine,
+                reasonByCredential, cfg);
+
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = attach();
+        try {
+            sink.onExhausted("term_y", "The usage limit has been reached", "gx");
+        } finally {
+            detach(appender);
+        }
+
+        String warning = fixWarning(appender);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("gx"), "must name the profile: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("has no model: configured"),
+                "must say there is no model to gate by name: " + warning);
+        assertFalse(warning.contains("enabled: false"),
+                "a profile with no model: configured has no models.allow entry to flip — must "
+                        + "not claim one exists: " + warning);
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdLeadRolloverWiringTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #480 Unit A, hard requirement 6: pin {@code Fleetd.main}'s construction of {@link
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover} with a source-text assertion, mirroring {@code
+ * FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest}'s pattern — five log-only reporters in {@code Fleetd.main}
+ * already survived mutation batteries this exact way (fleetd #415's extraction antidote note).
+ *
+ * <p>What this class still covers, and what it never claimed to. {@code LeadRolloverTest}
+ * constructs its own {@code LeadRollover} directly (as every prior test of an extracted factory
+ * does) with a hand-built lookup, so a mutation that deletes the {@code leadRollover(...)} call
+ * from {@code main} — or replaces one of its arguments with something that still compiles, e.g.
+ * {@code router.leadAgents()} swapped for {@code null}, or the whole assignment swapped for a bare
+ * {@code null} literal — leaves every behavioural test green. This is a plain string read, guarded
+ * by an unrelated anchor assertion so a broken or empty file read cannot pass as a real change.
+ *
+ * <p><b>This test checks source text, not runtime behaviour.</b> It never constructs a {@code
+ * LeadRollover} and never runs {@code main}. It pins the {@code leadRollover(...)} CALL SITE's
+ * argument list — that {@code main} still passes {@code leads} at all — never what the factory
+ * DOES with that argument once inside its own body.
+ *
+ * <p><b>Correction (fleetd #480 relative-handover-path follow-up): that gap used to be real, and
+ * now is not — but not here.</b> This class's javadoc previously claimed "no behavioural test can
+ * catch this wiring dropping out" for the whole factory, including the lambda {@code
+ * leadRollover(...)} builds internally (terminal → lead name → {@code Leader.cwd()}). That claim
+ * was proven true at the time — mutating that lambda's body to {@code String leadName = null;}
+ * (always "no lead found", which silently reintroduces the daemon-cwd bug this ticket fixes) left
+ * the full suite green, {@code Tests run: 1669, Failures: 0}. It is no longer true: {@code
+ * FleetdLeadRolloverWorkspaceLookupTest} now calls {@code Fleetd.leadRollover(...)} directly with a
+ * real {@link dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef} built from a temp {@code fleetd.yaml}, and fails
+ * against that exact one-line mutation. So: THIS class still covers only the call site's argument
+ * list; {@code FleetdLeadRolloverWorkspaceLookupTest} is what now covers the lambda's body. Neither
+ * one subsumes the other — keep both.
+ */
+class FleetdLeadRolloverWiringTest {
+
+    private static String fleetdSource() throws Exception {
+        return Files.readString(Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] unrelated anchor: Fleetd.java still declares the Fleetd class")
+    void unrelatedAnchorStillPresent() throws Exception {
+        // Guards the two assertions below: without this, a bad read (empty string, wrong file,
+        // truncated file) could vacuously fail to contain the leadRollover(...) call too, and a
+        // test that only asserts "contains X" would report a false pass for the wrong reason if X
+        // happened to match. Asserting an unrelated, structurally distant string first proves the
+        // read actually pulled real file content.
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains("public final class Fleetd"),
+                "sanity anchor failed — the file read did not return real Fleetd.java source; the "
+                        + "leadRollover(...) wiring assertions below cannot be trusted until this passes");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] main still constructs LeadRollover via the leadRollover(...) factory, exactly as heartbeat is constructed")
+    void mainStillCallsTheLeadRolloverFactory() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains(
+                        "LeadRollover leadRollover = leadRollover(cfg, router.leadAgents(), config, leads);"),
+                "Fleetd.main must still assign `LeadRollover leadRollover = leadRollover(cfg, "
+                        + "router.leadAgents(), config, leads);`. Dropping this call, or swapping one of "
+                        + "its arguments for something that still compiles (e.g. null in place of "
+                        + "router.leadAgents()), leaves every behavioural test green — this source check is "
+                        + "what must go red instead. fleetd #480 correction 2 deliberately dropped "
+                        + "primaryRegistry from this call — see LeadRollover's class javadoc for why a "
+                        + "single-slot lookup was wrong here. The fleetd #480 relative-handover-path "
+                        + "follow-up added `leads` (terminal → lead name) so the factory can resolve a "
+                        + "relative handoverPath against the calling lead's own workspace.");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] the leadRollover(...) factory itself gates construction on cfg.leadRollover() != null")
+    void factoryGatesOnConfigPresence() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains("if (cfg.leadRollover() == null) {"),
+                "Fleetd.leadRollover(...) must refuse to construct a LeadRollover when the "
+                        + "leadRollover: block is absent — an upgraded daemon must never silently acquire "
+                        + "the ability to clear the lead's own pane. See LeadHeartbeatLoop's construction "
+                        + "gate (cfg.leadHeartbeat() != null) for the pattern this mirrors.");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdLeadRolloverWorkspaceLookupTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,163 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.ConfigRef;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.HashMap;
+import java.util.Map;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNotNull;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #480 relative-handover-path follow-up, correction round: a BEHAVIOURAL test of {@link
+ * Fleetd#leadRollover}'s own body — the terminal → lead-name → {@code Leader.cwd()} lookup it
+ * builds — not another source-text pin.
+ *
+ * <p>{@code FleetdLeadRolloverWiringTest} (a plain string read) still earns its keep: it pins the
+ * call site's ARGUMENT LIST, so a mutation that drops {@code leads} back out of the call, or
+ * swaps it for {@code Map::of}, still goes red there. But nothing before this class exercised the
+ * LAMBDA BODY {@code leadRollover(...)} builds — the terminal-to-workspace {@code
+ * Function<String,String>} that {@link LeadRollover#open} actually calls. Every prior test either
+ * exercised {@code LeadRollover} directly with a hand-built lookup ({@code LeadRolloverTest}), or
+ * read source text without ever calling the factory ({@code FleetdLeadRolloverWiringTest}) — so a
+ * mutation that breaks the lookup ITSELF (e.g. always resolving no lead, or reading a snapshot
+ * instead of the live supplier) left every existing test green while the daemon's real wiring
+ * silently reintroduced the exact bug this whole ticket fixes: a relative {@code handoverPath}
+ * resolving against the daemon's own {@code cwd} instead of the calling lead's.
+ *
+ * <p>{@code Fleetd.leadRollover(...)} is package-private and {@code static}, so this test — living
+ * in the same {@code dev.ltms.fleet} package — calls it directly, exactly the way {@code
+ * FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest} and {@code FleetdCapacitySourceWiringTest} already call
+ * other package-private startup factories with a real {@link ConfigRef} built from a temp {@code
+ * fleetd.yaml} (never the gitignored live one).
+ *
+ * <p><b>Proved against the mutation it exists to catch.</b> Before this class was added, mutating
+ * {@code leadRollover(...)}'s lambda body to {@code String leadName = null;} (always "no lead
+ * found", which forces every relative {@code handoverPath} onto the {@code user.dir} fallback —
+ * i.e. the original bug) left the full suite green: {@code Tests run: 1669, Failures: 0}. With
+ * {@link #relativeHandoverPathResolvesAgainstTheLeadsConfiguredCwd()} added, the same one-line
+ * mutation now fails that test (it asserts the resolved path equals the configured lead's {@code
+ * cwd}, which the mutant can never produce) — see this ticket's fleet_reply history for both runs.
+ */
+class FleetdLeadRolloverWorkspaceLookupTest {
+
+    private static AgentControl fakeAgents() {
+        return new AgentControl(new FakeHerdr());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[BEHAVIOURAL] Fleetd.leadRollover(...) resolves a relative handoverPath against "
+            + "the CALLING lead's configured cwd, not the daemon's own working directory")
+    void relativeHandoverPathResolvesAgainstTheLeadsConfiguredCwd(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path leadCwd = dir.resolve("lead-workspace");
+        Files.createDirectories(leadCwd);
+        Path yaml = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(yaml, """
+                bind:
+                  port: 8080
+                fleet:
+                  leaders:
+                    opus:
+                      tab: "lead: opus"
+                      cwd: "%s"
+                leadRollover:
+                  handoverPath: handover.md
+                """.formatted(leadCwd.toString()));
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(yaml, FleetConfig.load(yaml));
+
+        LeadRollover rollover = Fleetd.leadRollover(config.get(), fakeAgents(), config,
+                () -> Map.of("term_opus", "opus"));
+        assertNotNull(rollover, "leadRollover: is present in the loaded config, so the factory "
+                + "must construct an object");
+
+        LeadRollover.PendingRollover pending = rollover.open("term_opus", "test");
+
+        String expected = leadCwd.resolve("handover.md").normalize().toString();
+        assertEquals(expected, pending.handoverPath(),
+                "a relative handoverPath must resolve against the CALLING lead's configured cwd "
+                        + "through the REAL Fleetd.leadRollover(...) wiring — not the daemon's own "
+                        + "working directory. This is the exact axis that was proven uncovered: "
+                        + "mutating the factory's lambda body to always report \"no lead found\" "
+                        + "left every prior test green.");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[BEHAVIOURAL] a terminal not present in the live lead-terminal map falls back "
+            + "to the daemon's own user.dir")
+    void terminalNotInLiveMapFallsBackToUserDir(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path yaml = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(yaml, """
+                bind:
+                  port: 8080
+                leadRollover:
+                  handoverPath: handover.md
+                """);
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(yaml, FleetConfig.load(yaml));
+
+        // No lead has been discovered yet — exactly the real shape of a lead the live tab scan
+        // has not yet scanned, or one with no fleet.leaders entry at all.
+        LeadRollover rollover = Fleetd.leadRollover(config.get(), fakeAgents(), config, Map::of);
+        assertNotNull(rollover);
+
+        LeadRollover.PendingRollover pending = rollover.open("term_unknown", "test");
+
+        String expected = Path.of(System.getProperty("user.dir")).resolve("handover.md")
+                .normalize().toString();
+        assertEquals(expected, pending.handoverPath(),
+                "a lead not present in the live terminal→name map must fall back to the daemon's "
+                        + "own user.dir — the same fallback LeadLauncher#launch already uses for a "
+                        + "lead with no configured cwd. This is deliberate, pinned behaviour, not an "
+                        + "accident of the null-check chain.");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[BEHAVIOURAL] the terminal→lead-name lookup is read LIVE on every open() call, "
+            + "never snapshotted at Fleetd.leadRollover(...) construction time")
+    void workspaceLookupIsReadLiveNotSnapshotted(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path leadCwd = dir.resolve("lead-workspace");
+        Files.createDirectories(leadCwd);
+        Path yaml = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(yaml, """
+                bind:
+                  port: 8080
+                fleet:
+                  leaders:
+                    opus:
+                      tab: "lead: opus"
+                      cwd: "%s"
+                leadRollover:
+                  handoverPath: handover.md
+                """.formatted(leadCwd.toString()));
+        ConfigRef config = new ConfigRef(yaml, FleetConfig.load(yaml));
+
+        // EMPTY at the moment leadRollover(...) is called. A lookup captured (snapshotted) here
+        // instead of read live through the supplier on every call would never see the entry added
+        // below — exactly the natural mistake to make, since leads are discovered by a live tab
+        // scan that runs AFTER this factory is constructed at startup.
+        Map<String, String> liveLeadTerminals = new HashMap<>();
+        LeadRollover rollover = Fleetd.leadRollover(config.get(), fakeAgents(), config,
+                () -> liveLeadTerminals);
+        assertNotNull(rollover);
+
+        // The lead is "discovered" only now — mutate the SAME backing map the supplier reads from.
+        liveLeadTerminals.put("term_opus", "opus");
+
+        LeadRollover.PendingRollover pending = rollover.open("term_opus", "test");
+
+        String expected = leadCwd.resolve("handover.md").normalize().toString();
+        assertEquals(expected, pending.handoverPath(),
+                "the terminal→lead-name lookup must be read LIVE on every open() call — a lead "
+                        + "discovered by the tab scan AFTER Fleetd.leadRollover(...) was constructed "
+                        + "must still resolve correctly, not only one that was already live at "
+                        + "construction time");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdStartupValidationTest.java

@@ -95,6 +95,28 @@ class FleetdStartupValidationTest {
                 """, "architetc");
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #469: closes the gap left by #464's {@code CharterToolSurfaceTest}, which wrote its
+     * own charter into a {@code @TempDir} fixture and so could never fail on anything anyone wrote
+     * into the live {@code fleetd.yaml}. {@code bridge_send} is CB-634's own motivating example — a
+     * tool name the rename removed — and the charter key ({@code dev}) is a real role wire name, so
+     * this fixture passes {@code cfg.validateAll()}'s charter check (key valid, text non-blank) and
+     * is refused only by the new {@code CharterToolSurface} call right after it. The failure message
+     * must name both the charter key and the unknown tool.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void mainRefusesACharterNamingAnUnregisteredTool(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        assertMainRefuses(dir, "charter-tool-surface.yaml", """
+                bind:
+                  host: 127.0.0.1
+                  port: 8765
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through bridge_send.
+                """, "bridge_send");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void mainRefusesAnArchitectSlotNamingAnUnconfiguredProfile(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         assertMainRefuses(dir, "members.yaml", """

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdUsageLimitFixWarningTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #446 follow-up (criterion 2): {@code exhaustionSink} used to build the "name the fix"
+ * WARNING inline with two SLF4J {@code {}}-placeholder {@code log.warn} calls. Nothing pinned
+ * that text — a mutation battery run against the merged PR #457 proved it: renaming the leading
+ * {@code "usage-limit fix:"} tag to {@code "MUTANT no fix named:"} at both call sites left all
+ * 1586 existing tests green. This class is what makes that mutation red.
+ *
+ * <p>{@link Fleetd#usageLimitFixWarning} and {@link Fleetd#usageLimitFixWarningNoModel} are the
+ * extracted call sites {@code exhaustionSink} actually invokes — {@code log.warn} is called with
+ * each method's return value as a single, already-formatted argument, so the string these tests
+ * assert on is byte-identical to what {@code fleetd.out} receives. Same extracted-static-method +
+ * dedicated-test idiom as {@link Fleetd#exhaustedPatternCoverageLine} /
+ * {@link FleetdPatternCoverageLineTest}, chosen over the {@link ch.qos.logback.core.read.ListAppender}
+ * idiom {@code ExhaustedPatternGapReportTest} uses — this warning is built once, at one call site,
+ * from a single method with no branching inside the message itself, so there is no real log
+ * plumbing left to prove; capturing an appender would only add setup/teardown around the same
+ * assertion.
+ *
+ * <p>Each assertion below checks for a specific substring — the leading {@code "usage-limit fix:"}
+ * tag an operator would grep the log for, the profile name, the model name, and the literal
+ * action ({@code enabled: false} under {@code models.allow}) — rather than the whole sentence.
+ * Criterion 2 promised those facts, not a particular wording of the prose that carries them; a
+ * whole-sentence {@code assertEquals} breaks on every copy-edit of that surrounding prose and
+ * teaches the next person to delete the test rather than read why it failed. The leading tag is
+ * pinned on purpose, unlike the rest of the sentence: it is the identifying label the fleetd #446
+ * follow-up's own mutation battery renamed ({@code "usage-limit fix:"} → {@code "MUTANT no fix
+ * named:"}) to prove this class did not yet catch a tag rename — only the three-fact substrings
+ * above would have missed it, since none of them mention the tag itself.
+ */
+class FleetdUsageLimitFixWarningTest {
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("usageLimitFixWarning names the profile, the model, and the models.allow fix")
+    void usageLimitFixWarningNamesProfileModelAndFix() {
+        String warning = Fleetd.usageLimitFixWarning("terra", "claude-opus-5");
+
+        assertTrue(warning.startsWith("usage-limit fix:"),
+                "must carry the grep-able identifying tag: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("terra"), "must name the profile: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("claude-opus-5"), "must name the model: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("enabled: false"), "must name the action: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("models.allow"), "must name where the action goes: " + warning);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("usageLimitFixWarning does not cross-name a different profile or model")
+    void usageLimitFixWarningDoesNotCrossName() {
+        String warning = Fleetd.usageLimitFixWarning("terra", "claude-opus-5");
+
+        // Guards against the mutation of swapping the two profile/model arguments at the call
+        // site — a test that only checks "some name appears" cannot catch that.
+        assertTrue(!warning.contains("sonnet"), "must not name an unrelated model: " + warning);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("usageLimitFixWarningNoModel names the profile but no fix, since none exists")
+    void usageLimitFixWarningNoModelNamesProfileNotAFix() {
+        String warning = Fleetd.usageLimitFixWarningNoModel("gx", 1800);
+
+        assertTrue(warning.startsWith("usage-limit fix:"),
+                "must carry the grep-able identifying tag: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("gx"), "must name the profile: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(warning.contains("1800"), "must name the quarantine duration it falls back to: " + warning);
+        assertTrue(!warning.contains("enabled: false"),
+                "a profile with no model: configured has no models.allow entry to flip — the "
+                        + "fallback message must not claim one exists: " + warning);
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRefProfileCoverageTest.java

@@ -161,7 +161,15 @@ class ConfigRefProfileCoverageTest {
         // the #323 bug. Only ideProjectDir and worktreeGroup were saved by a behavioural test in
         // ConfigRefTest; the other two had none. So: growing this set now requires editing this
         // line as well, which is a visible, deliberate diff rather than a quiet one.
-        assertEquals(Set.of("weight", "maxLoad", "credentialId"), excluded,
+        //
+        // fleetd #446: "exhaustedPattern" joined the set legitimately — it moved from compiled
+        // once at Fleetd.main startup to read live, cached by profile name, through
+        // LiveExhaustedPatterns (see that class's doc and ConfigRef's class doc). Unlike the #323
+        // hazard this comment warns about, it is pinned by its OWN behavioural tests:
+        // FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest proves the reload takes effect with no restart,
+        // and the same test rerun against the pre-#446 compile site (see that ticket's report) is
+        // what proves the assertion would have failed before the fix.
+        assertEquals(Set.of("weight", "maxLoad", "credentialId", "exhaustedPattern"), excluded,
                 "ConfigRef.LAUNCH_SETTINGS_EXCLUDED changed. A component belongs in it ONLY if it "
                         + "is read live off the config supplier, not baked into a launcher at "
                         + "startup. If you are adding one to silence this test, that is fleetd #323 "

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRefTest.java

@@ -1,10 +1,13 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.config;
 
+import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.CharterToolSurface;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
 
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.function.Consumer;
 
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
 
@@ -38,6 +41,23 @@ class ConfigRefTest {
         return new ConfigRef(f, FleetConfig.load(f));
     }
 
+    /**
+     * The exact {@code Consumer<FleetConfig>} {@code Fleetd.main} wires into {@code ConfigRef}'s
+     * constructor as {@code extraValidation} (fleetd #474) — an adapter from {@code FleetConfig} to
+     * the raw charter map {@link CharterToolSurface#assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} takes.
+     * Built here rather than referencing {@code dev.ltms.fleet.Fleetd} directly, because that method
+     * is package-private to {@code dev.ltms.fleet} and this test lives in {@code
+     * dev.ltms.fleet.config} — but it calls the SAME production {@link CharterToolSurface} method
+     * {@code Fleetd} calls, so this proves the real check runs on reload, not a stand-in for it.
+     */
+    private static final Consumer<FleetConfig> CHARTER_TOOL_SURFACE = cfg ->
+            CharterToolSurface.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(
+                    cfg.fleet() == null ? Map.of() : cfg.fleet().charters());
+
+    private static ConfigRef refForWithCharterToolSurface(Path f) {
+        return new ConfigRef(f, FleetConfig.load(f), CHARTER_TOOL_SURFACE);
+    }
+
     @Test
     void aHotChangeIsAppliedAndReadThroughGet(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
@@ -124,6 +144,87 @@ class ConfigRefTest {
         assertSame(before, ref.get());
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #474: {@code validateAll()} (via {@code validateCharters()}) only checks that a
+     * charter's KEY is a role wire name and its text is non-blank — it never looks at what the text
+     * names, so a charter naming {@code bridge_send} (the pre-CB-634 name, removed from the tool
+     * surface — #469's own motivating example) passes {@code validateAll()} and used to be applied
+     * on reload with nothing refusing it, even though the identical charter refuses {@code
+     * Fleetd.main} at startup ({@code FleetdStartupValidationTest
+     * #mainRefusesACharterNamingAnUnregisteredTool}). This is the reload-path proof: it drives
+     * {@link ConfigRef#reload()} itself (not a direct call to {@link
+     * CharterToolSurface#assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools}), through the exact {@code
+     * extraValidation} wiring {@code Fleetd.main} uses, and the failure message must name both the
+     * charter key and the unknown tool — the same information the startup failure gives (ticket
+     * acceptance criterion 1).
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aReloadRefusesACharterNamingAnUnregisteredTool(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, yaml("""
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through fleet_reply.
+                """));
+        ConfigRef ref = refForWithCharterToolSurface(f);
+        FleetConfig before = ref.get();
+
+        Files.writeString(f, yaml("""
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through bridge_send.
+                """));
+        ConfigRef.Outcome out = ref.reload();
+
+        assertFalse(out.applied());
+        assertNotNull(out.error());
+        assertTrue(out.error().contains("dev"),
+                "expected the charter key 'dev' in the refusal, got: " + out.error());
+        assertTrue(out.error().contains("bridge_send"),
+                "expected the unknown tool 'bridge_send' in the refusal, got: " + out.error());
+        assertTrue(out.summary().startsWith("config reload refused"), out.summary());
+        // The running config must not move at all — half-applying this would leave the daemon in a
+        // state that could never have booted, exactly the outcome ConfigRef.java's class doc warns
+        // a cold-key refusal must avoid, and this check must avoid the same way.
+        assertSame(before, ref.get());
+        assertEquals("Send the final handoff through fleet_reply.\n",
+                ref.get().fleet().charterFor(dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole.DEV));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #474 acceptance criterion 3, the positive case: a reload whose charter names only
+     * registered tools must still be ACCEPTED. An inverted filter (one that refuses every charter,
+     * or refuses on any {@code fleet_*}/{@code bridge_*} token regardless of registration) would pass
+     * the refusal test above alone — #469's own M5 mutation cell showed exactly that shape surviving
+     * a negative-only suite. This is the test that catches it.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aReloadAcceptsACharterNamingOnlyRegisteredTools(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, yaml("""
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: old charter, no tool names
+                """));
+        ConfigRef ref = refForWithCharterToolSurface(f);
+
+        Files.writeString(f, yaml("""
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through fleet_reply, using fleet_send to delegate.
+                """));
+        ConfigRef.Outcome out = ref.reload();
+
+        assertTrue(out.applied());
+        assertTrue(out.deferred().isEmpty(), out.deferred().toString());
+        assertEquals("config reloaded", out.summary());
+        assertEquals("Send the final handoff through fleet_reply, using fleet_send to delegate.\n",
+                ref.get().fleet().charterFor(dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole.DEV));
+    }
+
     /**
      * The point of the whole class: a consumer holding the ref sees the new value without being
      * rebuilt. A component that captured {@code get()} into a field would still show the old one.
@@ -339,12 +440,18 @@ class ConfigRefTest {
     }
 
     /**
-     * CB-578 stage B: exhaustedPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's pattern map at startup
-     * (see ExhaustedPatternLookup), so a reload never re-reads it — a changed pattern must be
-     * reported deferred exactly like model/baseUrl, not silently claimed as applied.
+     * fleetd #446: exhaustedPattern moved from deferred to hot — {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns}
+     * reads {@code config.get()} fresh on every lookup, cached by profile name (not baked into a
+     * frozen map inside {@code Fleetd.main} any more, the way it was before this ticket, and the
+     * way its sibling {@code errorPattern} still is — see
+     * {@code changingAProfilesErrorPatternIsReportedAsDeferred} right below for the contrast).
+     * So a reload that changes ONLY exhaustedPattern must report a plain "config reloaded", with
+     * nothing deferred — the opposite of what this test asserted before fleetd #446, when
+     * ConfigRef.sameLaunchSettings still compared exhaustedPattern and this reload reported it as
+     * one of the changes needing a restart.
      */
     @Test
-    void changingAProfilesExhaustedPatternIsReportedAsDeferred(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+    void changingAProfilesExhaustedPatternTakesEffectWithNoRestart(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
         Files.writeString(f, """
                 bind:
@@ -379,17 +486,21 @@ class ConfigRefTest {
         ConfigRef.Outcome out = ref.reload();
 
         assertTrue(out.applied());
-        assertEquals(1, out.deferred().size(), out.deferred().toString());
-        assertTrue(out.deferred().getFirst().contains("sonnet"), out.deferred().toString());
-        assertTrue(out.deferred().getFirst().contains("launch settings"), out.deferred().toString());
-        // The snapshot still carries the new value — a restart is what makes it take effect.
+        assertEquals(0, out.deferred().size(),
+                "exhaustedPattern is hot since fleetd #446 — changing only this key must not be "
+                        + "reported as needing a restart: " + out.deferred());
+        assertEquals(0, out.split().size(), out.split().toString());
+        assertEquals("config reloaded", out.summary());
+        // The snapshot carries the new value immediately — this IS the live value now, not
+        // merely what a restart would eventually pick up.
         assertEquals("rate limit exceeded", ref.get().profiles().get("sonnet").exhaustedPattern());
     }
 
     /**
      * fleetd #201 Unit 5: errorPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's backend-error pattern
-     * map at startup (see BackendErrorPatternLookup), the same way exhaustedPattern is above — a
-     * reload never re-reads it either, so a changed value must be reported deferred.
+     * map at startup (see BackendErrorPatternLookup) — unlike its sibling exhaustedPattern above,
+     * which fleetd #446 made hot, errorPattern was scoped OUT of that ticket on purpose and stays
+     * deferred: a reload still never re-reads it, so a changed value must be reported deferred.
      */
     @Test
     void changingAProfilesErrorPatternIsReportedAsDeferred(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRefTopLevelCoverageTest.java

@@ -87,6 +87,17 @@ class ConfigRefTopLevelCoverageTest {
      *       Unlike {@code fleet} below, nothing about {@code models} is baked into a startup-built
      *       object anywhere — there is no frozen half, so it belongs here whole rather than in
      *       {@code SPLIT_KEYS}.</li>
+     *   <li>{@code leadRollover} (fleetd #480) — {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover} holds a
+     *       {@code Supplier<FleetConfig.LeadRollover>} and reads every field fresh on each
+     *       {@code open()}/{@code confirm()} call, the same {@code () -> config.get().x()} shape
+     *       {@code fleet}/{@code placement}/{@code models} use — see {@code ConfigRef}'s class doc
+     *       Hot bullet. The only restart-only fact is structural, not a value going stale:
+     *       {@code Fleetd.java} decides whether to construct the {@code LeadRollover} object at
+     *       all off the startup snapshot (the same presence gate {@code leadHeartbeat:} uses), so
+     *       a block ADDED where it was absent at boot needs a restart before anything exists to
+     *       call — the same fact already true of adding a brand-new {@code profiles:} entry, which
+     *       does not stop {@code profiles}' own hot sub-fields (weight/maxLoad/credentialId/
+     *       exhaustedPattern) from being genuinely hot.</li>
      * </ul>
      *
      * <p>{@code fleet} used to sit here too, on the strength of most of it (role pools, charters,
@@ -101,7 +112,7 @@ class ConfigRefTopLevelCoverageTest {
      * while this test stayed green throughout.</p>
      */
     private static final Set<String> HOT_EXCLUDED_TOP_LEVEL_KEYS =
-            Set.of("placement", "memberCredentials", "memberLoginShell", "models");
+            Set.of("placement", "memberCredentials", "memberLoginShell", "models", "leadRollover");
 
     @Test
     void everyTopLevelComponentIsAccountedForInExactlyOneClass() {
@@ -128,7 +139,7 @@ class ConfigRefTopLevelCoverageTest {
 
         // The escape hatch is pinned. Growing it requires editing this line — a visible, deliberate
         // diff, not a quiet one. See the field javadoc above for what "belongs here" actually means.
-        assertEquals(Set.of("placement", "memberCredentials", "memberLoginShell", "models"), hot,
+        assertEquals(Set.of("placement", "memberCredentials", "memberLoginShell", "models", "leadRollover"), hot,
                 "HOT_EXCLUDED_TOP_LEVEL_KEYS changed. A component belongs here ONLY if it is read "
                         + "live off the config supplier, never because adding it makes this test "
                         + "pass. If you are adding one to silence this test, that is fleetd #323 "

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRefTopLevelReportingCoverageTest.java

@@ -111,6 +111,9 @@ class ConfigRefTopLevelReportingCoverageTest {
         v.put("idleSleepGuard", new FleetConfig.IdleSleepGuard(true));
         v.put("models", new FleetConfig.Models(
                 List.of(new FleetConfig.Models.ModelEntry("model-a"))));
+        // fleetd #480: leadRollover joins placement/memberCredentials/memberLoginShell as
+        // hot-excluded — never compared by any changed*Keys method, so it stays null like them.
+        v.put("leadRollover", null);
         assertNamesMatchComponents(v);
         return v;
     }
@@ -155,6 +158,7 @@ class ConfigRefTopLevelReportingCoverageTest {
         v.put("idleSleepGuard", new FleetConfig.IdleSleepGuard(false));
         v.put("models", new FleetConfig.Models(
                 List.of(new FleetConfig.Models.ModelEntry("model-b"))));
+        v.put("leadRollover", null);
         assertNamesMatchComponents(v);
         return v;
     }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfigValidateAllTest.java

@@ -233,7 +233,7 @@ class FleetConfigValidateAllTest {
         }
         assertEquals(new TreeSet<>(Set.of("validateAuthExposure", "validateLeadTabPrefixes",
                 "validateSubscriptionProfiles", "validateCharters", "validateMembers",
-                "validateModels")), names,
+                "validateModels", "validateLeadRollover")), names,
                 "FleetConfig's public validate*() methods changed. Do TWO things, in this "
                         + "order. First confirm validateAll() still delegates to "
                         + "invokeAllValidators(this) — a hardcoded list there passes every other "

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfigWithDefaultsPreservesEveryComponentTest.java

@@ -99,6 +99,11 @@ class FleetConfigWithDefaultsPreservesEveryComponentTest {
         v.put("idleSleepGuard", new FleetConfig.IdleSleepGuard(true));
         v.put("models", new FleetConfig.Models(
                 List.of(new FleetConfig.Models.ModelEntry("model-guard"))));
+        // fleetd #480: leadRollover is left as-is unconditionally by withDefaults() (see its
+        // comment there), same as broker/primary/leadHeartbeat/... above — a real, non-null value
+        // here proves it, rather than leaving it null and proving nothing.
+        v.put("leadRollover", new FleetConfig.LeadRollover(
+                "/handover/guard.md", true, 3600, 20, 20, "read the handover file"));
         assertNamesMatchComponents(v);
         return v;
     }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/AgentControlContractTest.java

@@ -17,15 +17,105 @@ import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assumptions.assumeTrue;
  * SHELL directly (never {@code claude}, so no subscription/token involvement) and always tears
  * the throwaway space down.
  *
+ * <p>The seed shell's own startup (restoring its session, printing its banner) is asynchronous
+ * and its length is not a fleetd contract — measured here at ~2.5s on one host (fleetd #449).
+ * The old version used two fixed sleeps: 1000ms before typing, then 800ms before reading. It
+ * failed, and the pane showed the typed line followed by the startup banner with no command
+ * output at all — which looks, at a glance, exactly like the env map never reaching the shell.
+ * So this polls for a real signal instead of guessing a sleep length.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>What was measured, and what was not.</strong> Polling fixes it: 5 standalone runs
+ * green. The load-bearing half is {@link #waitForText}, and one cell proves it. Keep the old
+ * 1000ms write sleep and change only the read — the 800ms fixed sleep becomes a 5s poll — and
+ * the test goes from 0 of 3 passing to 3 of 3. Removing the write wait instead
+ * ({@link #SHELL_READY_TIMEOUT_MS} set to 0, so input is typed at once) also passes 3 of 3. So
+ * the cause is the 800ms READ deadline, not the 1000ms write delay. The old version fails every
+ * time, not sometimes, so "race" is the wrong word for it. The earlier explanation — that input
+ * typed before the prompt is swallowed by the shell's startup — is not supported by anything
+ * measured here. Please do not repeat it: if it were true, typing at 0ms would be worse than
+ * typing at 1000ms, and it is not.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>Where this was measured.</strong> A 12-core macOS host, load average 2.6 to 5.9,
+ * on commit 20c1094. The same four cells were also run under load, with 8 spinners on 12 cores.
+ * The failure and the passes from that run are not worth the same. The cells ran in a fixed
+ * order while the load climbed from 7 to 50. The old version ran last, at the top of that climb,
+ * so it has a free explanation for failing and its 0 of 3 is discarded. A pass has no such free
+ * explanation: a cell that survives a worse condition than a fair order would have given it is
+ * evidence in the safe direction. So keep the three passes, each with the load it ran at: the
+ * fixed version 3 of 3 at load 7.42 to 18.42, the 0ms-write cell 3 of 3 at 18.42 to 23.65, the
+ * 1000ms-write cell 3 of 3 at 23.65 to 46.40. Above about load 20 everything here is slow for
+ * reasons that have nothing to do with this seam, so read the positive claim — that the read
+ * deadline was the whole cause — as "measured near idle on a 12-core host", and nothing
+ * stronger. Do not carry that raw load average to another host either: load average counts
+ * differently per core and per operating system, so only load per core compares. If this test
+ * fails on a smaller or busier machine, raise {@link #OUTPUT_TIMEOUT_MS} before you suspect the
+ * seam.
+ *
+ * <p>{@link #waitUntilSettled} is kept as cheap insurance against that swallow case, not because
+ * anyone showed it was needed. The cell that tests the swallow case head-on is the one with
+ * {@link #SHELL_READY_TIMEOUT_MS} at 0: input is typed at once, which is the worst case for
+ * "typed before the prompt is ready". It passed 3 of 3 at load 18.42 to 23.65. The wider read
+ * window cannot explain that pass away, because a swallowed keystroke is LOST, not late — the
+ * command never runs, so no amount of polling makes its output appear. So the swallow mechanism
+ * was tested and did not show up. If you want to delete this call, that is the cell to re-run.
+ *
  * <p>Tagged {@code contract}; run with {@code mvn test -Pcontract}.
  */
 @Tag("contract")
 class AgentControlContractTest {
 
+    private static final long POLL_INTERVAL_MS = 150;
+    /** Bound for the seed shell to settle: observed ~2.5s three times running; this leaves headroom. */
+    private static final long SHELL_READY_TIMEOUT_MS = 8_000;
+    /** Bound for the typed command's output to appear once the shell is ready: observed ~0.2s. */
+    private static final long OUTPUT_TIMEOUT_MS = 5_000;
+
     private boolean noSocket() {
         return !Files.exists(UnixSocketHerdrClient.defaultSocketPath());
     }
 
+    private static String readPane(UnixSocketHerdrClient herdr, String paneId) {
+        return herdr.call("pane.read", Map.of("pane_id", paneId, "source", "visible"))
+                .path("read").path("text").asText("");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Poll {@code pane.read} until two consecutive reads come back identical — the shell's own
+     * startup output (restore banner, prompt) has stopped changing — or {@code timeoutMs} elapses.
+     * Never asserts by itself; the caller's own assertion is what actually verifies the outcome.
+     * Setting {@code timeoutMs} to 0 skips the wait entirely and the test still passes here, so
+     * treat this as insurance rather than as the fix — see the class javadoc.
+     */
+    private static String waitUntilSettled(UnixSocketHerdrClient herdr, String paneId, long timeoutMs)
+            throws InterruptedException {
+        long deadline = System.currentTimeMillis() + timeoutMs;
+        String previous = null;
+        while (System.currentTimeMillis() < deadline) {
+            Thread.sleep(POLL_INTERVAL_MS);
+            String current = readPane(herdr, paneId);
+            if (current.equals(previous) && !current.isBlank()) {
+                return current;
+            }
+            previous = current;
+        }
+        return previous == null ? "" : previous;
+    }
+
+    /** Poll {@code pane.read} until {@code needle} appears or {@code timeoutMs} elapses. */
+    private static String waitForText(UnixSocketHerdrClient herdr, String paneId, String needle, long timeoutMs)
+            throws InterruptedException {
+        long deadline = System.currentTimeMillis() + timeoutMs;
+        String last = "";
+        while (System.currentTimeMillis() < deadline) {
+            last = readPane(herdr, paneId);
+            if (last.contains(needle)) {
+                return last;
+            }
+            Thread.sleep(POLL_INTERVAL_MS);
+        }
+        return last;
+    }
+
     @Test
     void tabCreateInjectsEnvIntoTheSeedShell() throws Exception {
         assumeTrue(!noSocket(), "no herdr socket — skipping");
@@ -36,15 +126,13 @@ class AgentControlContractTest {
                     Map.of("ANTHROPIC_BASE_URL", "http://gx00.gw:8000"));
             try {
                 assertNotNull(tab.rootPaneId(), "tab.create must return the seed pane");
-                Thread.sleep(1000); // let the seed shell reach its prompt
+                waitUntilSettled(herdr, tab.rootPaneId(), SHELL_READY_TIMEOUT_MS);
                 herdr.call("pane.send_input", Map.of(
                         "pane_id", tab.rootPaneId(),
                         "text", "printf 'PROBE_BASE=[%s]\\n' \"$ANTHROPIC_BASE_URL\"",
                         "keys", List.of("enter")));
-                Thread.sleep(800);
-                String visible = herdr.call("pane.read",
-                                Map.of("pane_id", tab.rootPaneId(), "source", "visible"))
-                        .path("read").path("text").asText("");
+                String visible = waitForText(herdr, tab.rootPaneId(),
+                        "PROBE_BASE=[http://gx00.gw:8000]", OUTPUT_TIMEOUT_MS);
                 assertTrue(visible.contains("PROBE_BASE=[http://gx00.gw:8000]"),
                         "env map must reach the seed shell; saw: " + visible);
             } finally {

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/HerdrContractTest.java

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assumptions.assumeTrue;
  * Contract test against a REAL running herdr. Tagged {@code contract} so it is
  * excluded from {@code mvn test}; run it with {@code mvn test -Pcontract}. It fails
  * loudly if herdr drifts from the protocol {@code fleetd} was built against
- * (0.7.0, protocol 14) — catching breakage that unit tests with canned frames cannot.
+ * (0.8.0, protocol 19) — catching breakage that unit tests with canned frames cannot.
  */
 @Tag("contract")
 class HerdrContractTest {
@@ -24,13 +24,13 @@ class HerdrContractTest {
     }
 
     @Test
-    void pingReturnsProtocol14() {
+    void pingReturnsProtocol19() {
         assumeTrue(Files.exists(socket()), "no herdr socket at " + socket() + " — skipping");
         try (UnixSocketHerdrClient herdr = UnixSocketHerdrClient.connect()) {
             JsonNode pong = herdr.call("ping");
             assertEquals("pong", pong.get("type").asText());
-            assertEquals(14, pong.get("protocol").asInt(),
-                    "fleetd is built against herdr protocol 14");
+            assertEquals(19, pong.get("protocol").asInt(),
+                    "fleetd is built against herdr protocol 19");
             assertFalse(pong.get("version").asText().isBlank());
         }
     }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/LiveExhaustedPatternsTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNotSame;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNull;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertSame;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #446: {@code LiveExhaustedPatterns} is the mechanism that makes {@code exhaustedPattern}
+ * hot — read fresh off a config supplier per lookup, cached by profile name. This is the direct,
+ * minimal unit test of that mechanism: read the pattern once, mutate the backing "config", read
+ * again, and assert the second read saw the new value — the exact hotness proof shape.
+ *
+ * <p>This class alone does not prove {@code Fleetd.main} actually wires the live source into
+ * production — {@link dev.ltms.fleet.FleetdExhaustionDetectionArmedWiringTest} and {@code
+ * CompletionResolverTest}'s {@code ExhaustedPatternLookup} tests do that at the wiring level. What
+ * this class proves is that the mechanism itself is genuinely live and genuinely cached, not that
+ * it is used.
+ */
+class LiveExhaustedPatternsTest {
+
+    private static FleetConfig.Profile profileWithPattern(String pattern) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Profile("terra", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "terra",
+                null, null, null, "tab", "fleetd-workers", "w #{n}", null, null, null,
+                null, null, null, null, null, null, null, pattern);
+    }
+
+    /** Simple mutable holder standing in for {@code ConfigRef} — swapped, never mutated in place. */
+    private static final class MutableProfiles {
+        private volatile Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles;
+
+        MutableProfiles(Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> initial) {
+            this.profiles = initial;
+        }
+
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> get() {
+            return profiles;
+        }
+
+        void set(Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> fresh) {
+            this.profiles = fresh;
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("patternFor reads the live config: read, change, read again, see the change — no restart")
+    void patternForIsHotAcrossAConfigChange() {
+        MutableProfiles live = new MutableProfiles(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("usage limit")));
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(live::get);
+
+        Pattern before = patterns.patternFor("terra");
+        assertTrue(before.matcher("your usage limit has been reached").find());
+
+        // Change the "config" — the exact thing a reload does to ConfigRef in production.
+        live.set(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("rate limit exceeded")));
+
+        Pattern after = patterns.patternFor("terra");
+        assertTrue(after.matcher("429: rate limit exceeded, try later").find(),
+                "the second read must see the NEW pattern text with no restart");
+        assertFalse(after.matcher("your usage limit has been reached").find(),
+                "the second read must have actually recompiled — not just reused a stale match");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("armed follows the same live read: on, then off, after a config change — no restart")
+    void armedIsHotAcrossAConfigChange() {
+        MutableProfiles live = new MutableProfiles(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("usage limit")));
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(live::get);
+
+        assertTrue(patterns.armed("terra"));
+
+        live.set(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern(null)));
+
+        assertFalse(patterns.armed("terra"),
+                "removing exhaustedPattern and 'reloading' must disarm detection with no restart");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("an unchanged pattern string is not recompiled — the cache is reused")
+    void unchangedPatternTextReusesTheCompiledInstance() {
+        MutableProfiles live = new MutableProfiles(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("usage limit")));
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(live::get);
+
+        Pattern first = patterns.patternFor("terra");
+        // A NEW Profile object, same pattern text — a reload of an unrelated key produces a fresh
+        // FleetConfig even though this profile's own text did not change.
+        live.set(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("usage limit")));
+        Pattern second = patterns.patternFor("terra");
+
+        assertSame(first, second,
+                "identical pattern text must reuse the cached compiled Pattern, not recompile it — "
+                        + "recompiling a regex on every check is exactly the cost the cache exists to avoid");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a changed pattern string is recompiled, not silently reused from the cache")
+    void changedPatternTextIsRecompiled() {
+        MutableProfiles live = new MutableProfiles(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("usage limit")));
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(live::get);
+
+        Pattern first = patterns.patternFor("terra");
+        live.set(Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("rate limit")));
+        Pattern second = patterns.patternFor("terra");
+
+        assertNotSame(first, second, "changed pattern text must produce a freshly compiled Pattern");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void unknownProfileReturnsNullAndUnarmed() {
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(Map::of);
+        assertNull(patterns.patternFor("nope"));
+        assertFalse(patterns.armed("nope"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void nullProfileNameReturnsNullAndUnarmed() {
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(
+                () -> Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern("usage limit")));
+        assertNull(patterns.patternFor(null));
+        assertFalse(patterns.armed(null));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void profileWithNoPatternConfiguredReturnsNull() {
+        LiveExhaustedPatterns patterns = new LiveExhaustedPatterns(
+                () -> Map.of("terra", profileWithPattern(null)));
+        assertNull(patterns.patternFor("terra"));
+        assertFalse(patterns.armed("terra"));
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/CharterToolSurfaceTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.regex.Matcher;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertDoesNotThrow;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertThrows;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #464 shipped {@code configuredChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} below, comparing charter
+ * text against the registered tool surface — but it scraped <em>both</em> sides from source text:
+ * its own fixture charter, and a regex over {@code FleetMcp.java}'s {@code tool("…")} calls. #469's
+ * gap: nothing anyone wrote into the live {@code fleetd.yaml} could ever reach that test, because
+ * it never called production validation code.
+ *
+ * <p>This version keeps the charter-text extraction helper ({@code toolsNamedIn}) — charters are
+ * free-text config, so finding a {@code fleet_*}/{@code bridge_*} token inside one has no source
+ * but a scrape — but reads the <em>registered</em> side from {@link FleetTool}, the canonical enum
+ * {@code FleetMcp} itself now derives its tool schemas and authorization switch from, rather than a
+ * second scrape of {@code FleetMcp.java}'s source. It also exercises {@link
+ * CharterToolSurface#assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools} directly — the method {@code
+ * Fleetd.main} actually calls at startup — both accepting and rejecting. {@code
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.FleetdStartupValidationTest#mainRefusesACharterNamingAnUnregisteredTool} is what
+ * closes #469's actual gap: it proves that call is wired into {@code Fleetd.main} itself, against a
+ * live-shaped config fixture, not just a unit call to the method in isolation.
+ */
+class CharterToolSurfaceTest {
+
+    private static Set<String> matches(String text, String regex) {
+        Matcher m = Pattern.compile(regex).matcher(text);
+        Set<String> found = new LinkedHashSet<>();
+        while (m.find()) {
+            found.add(m.group(1));
+        }
+        return found;
+    }
+
+    /** Every {@code fleet_*} or legacy {@code bridge_*} token in the configured launch charters. */
+    private static Set<String> toolsNamedIn(FleetConfig config) {
+        return matches(String.join("\n", config.fleet().charters().values()),
+                "(fleet_[a-z_]+|bridge_[a-z_]+)");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("every tool named in a configured charter is in the canonical FleetTool set")
+    void configuredChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path configFile = dir.resolve("charters.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(configFile, """
+                fleet:
+                  charters:
+                    dev: |
+                      Send the final handoff through fleet_reply.
+                    reviewer: |
+                      Use fleet_ask only for the lead's decision.
+                """);
+
+        FleetConfig config = FleetConfig.load(configFile);
+        Set<String> named = toolsNamedIn(config);
+        Set<String> registered = FleetTool.wireNames();
+
+        assertTrue(!named.isEmpty(),
+                "the charter fixture named no fleet_* or bridge_* tool. This test would check nothing; "
+                        + "add charter text that names a tool before changing the extraction.");
+        assertTrue(!registered.isEmpty(),
+                "FleetTool.wireNames() is empty. This test would check nothing; repair FleetTool "
+                        + "before changing the assertion.");
+
+        Set<String> unknown = new LinkedHashSet<>(named);
+        unknown.removeAll(registered);
+        assertTrue(unknown.isEmpty(),
+                "configured charter text names " + unknown + ", but FleetTool does not list it. "
+                        + "Checked " + named + " against " + registered + ". Fix the charter text or "
+                        + "add the tool to FleetTool; do NOT weaken this test.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The positive case for the actual production entry point: a charter naming only tools
+     * {@link FleetTool} lists must not throw.
+     */
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("CharterToolSurface accepts a charter that names only registered tools")
+    void charterToolSurfaceAcceptsKnownTools() {
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> CharterToolSurface.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(Map.of(
+                "dev", "Send the final handoff through fleet_reply, using fleet_send to delegate.",
+                "reviewer", "Use fleet_ask only for the lead's decision.")));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The negative case for the actual production entry point (fleetd #469's motivating example:
+     * {@code bridge_send} is the pre-CB-634 name, removed from the tool surface). The message must
+     * name both the offending charter key and the unknown tool, so an operator reading the startup
+     * log knows exactly which charter to fix.
+     */
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("CharterToolSurface rejects a charter naming a tool the server does not register")
+    void charterToolSurfaceRejectsAnUnregisteredTool() {
+        Map<String, String> charters = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        charters.put("dev", "Send the final handoff through bridge_send.");
+        IllegalStateException e = assertThrows(IllegalStateException.class,
+                () -> CharterToolSurface.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(charters));
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("dev"),
+                "expected the charter key 'dev' in the failure message, got: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("bridge_send"),
+                "expected the unknown tool 'bridge_send' in the failure message, got: " + e.getMessage());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("CharterToolSurface is a no-op on an absent or empty charter map")
+    void charterToolSurfaceIsANoOpWithNoCharters() {
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> CharterToolSurface.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(null));
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> CharterToolSurface.assertChartersNameOnlyRegisteredTools(Map.of()));
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcpAuthzTest.java

@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
 
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
-import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.regex.Matcher;
@@ -50,7 +50,6 @@ import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
 class FleetMcpAuthzTest {
 
     private static final Path MCP_SOURCE = Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java");
-    private static final Pattern TOOL_REGISTRATION = Pattern.compile("tool\\(\\\"(fleet_[a-z_]+)\\\"");
 
     private final FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
     private final AgentControl agents = new AgentControl(herdr);
@@ -76,12 +75,16 @@ class FleetMcpAuthzTest {
         ConnectionIdentity identity = new ConnectionIdentity(new PaneLocator(herdr), _ -> 999_999);
         metrics = FleetMetrics.create(sessions, new InMemoryReplyInbox());
 
+        // fleetd #480 correction round: FleetMcp has one constructor now (no defaulting
+        // overloads — see its javadoc), so every feature this test does not exercise is passed
+        // its explicit "off" value here rather than being omitted.
         mcp = new FleetMcp(messages, workers, sessions, identity, sessions.asPresence(),
                 new PrimaryRegistry(null),
                 enforce ? CallerResolver.withLeadsAndMembers(identity, false, null,
                 Map::of, new MemberRegistry(null)) : null,
                 metrics, FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none());
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), null, FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(),
+                FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(), List.of(), null);
         return mcp;
     }
 
@@ -187,6 +190,71 @@ class FleetMcpAuthzTest {
                 "no CallerResolver supplied ⇒ authorization not enforced (legacy behaviour)");
     }
 
+    // --- fleetd #439: who may see fleet_list's coordinator row ----------------------------------
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #439: {@link FleetMcp#coordinatorVisibleTo} is the whole policy decision for
+     * {@code fleet_list}'s {@code coordinator} row — lead-to-lead coordination state, not roster
+     * observation. Only the primary may see it; a worker, an architect, and (the case the previous
+     * pass of this ticket did not cover) an anonymous caller must all be refused.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void onlyThePrimaryMaySeeTheCoordinatorRow() {
+        assertTrue(FleetMcp.coordinatorVisibleTo(PRIMARY), "the primary must see its own coordination state");
+        assertFalse(FleetMcp.coordinatorVisibleTo(WORKER_A), "a worker must not see lead-to-lead coordination state");
+        assertFalse(FleetMcp.coordinatorVisibleTo(ARCH_DESIGN),
+                "an architect holds READ today, but that must not extend to coordinator");
+        assertFalse(FleetMcp.coordinatorVisibleTo(ANON), "authenticated as nothing must not see it either");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #439 / PR #462 review finding M2: the predicate above can be perfectly correct while
+     * the one production call site (the {@code fleet_list} MCP handler) never actually asks it —
+     * a literal {@code true} compiles, and the whole suite stayed green under that mutation because
+     * every existing test drives {@link FleetMcp#listFleet} directly and supplies the boolean
+     * itself. This test reads {@code FleetMcp.java}'s own source (same idiom as {@link
+     * #toolsTheServerRegisters()} / {@link #everyRegisteredToolHasItsHandlerActionPinned()}) and
+     * asserts the handler's call passes {@code coordinatorVisibleTo(principal(exchange))} — not a
+     * literal {@code true} or {@code false} — as {@code listFleet}'s trailing argument.
+     *
+     * <p>Anchored on argument position, not a bare substring search: {@code true} appears many
+     * times elsewhere in this file for unrelated reasons, so a plain {@code contains("true")}
+     * check would prove nothing. The pattern requires the literal text immediately before the
+     * closing {@code );} of the {@code listFleet(} call inside the handler block to be exactly
+     * {@code coordinatorVisibleTo(principal(exchange))}.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void theFleetListHandlerActuallyConsultsCoordinatorVisibleTo() throws Exception {
+        String source = Files.readString(MCP_SOURCE);
+
+        // Isolate the fleet_list handler block: from its declaration up to the next handler's
+        // declaration. A change to variable naming would break this scrape loudly (see the control
+        // assertion just below), rather than silently reporting "no violation found".
+        int start = source.indexOf("listHandler =");
+        assertTrue(start >= 0, "could not find the fleet_list handler (listHandler) in " + MCP_SOURCE
+                + " -- the scrape has stopped matching, fix the anchor before trusting this test");
+        int end = source.indexOf("stopHandler =", start);
+        assertTrue(end > start, "could not find the handler declared after listHandler to bound the scrape");
+        String handlerBlock = source.substring(start, end);
+
+        // CONTROL: the block we scraped really does contain a call to listFleet(...) -- if this
+        // fails, the anchors above moved and the assertion below would otherwise pass on nothing.
+        assertTrue(handlerBlock.contains("listFleet("),
+                "control failed: the scraped listHandler block contains no listFleet( call at all -- "
+                        + "the anchors have drifted, this test is not testing what it claims to");
+
+        Pattern trailingArg = Pattern.compile(
+                "listFleet\\([^;]*?,\\s*(coordinatorVisibleTo\\(principal\\(exchange\\)\\)|true|false)\\s*\\)\\s*;",
+                Pattern.DOTALL);
+        Matcher m = trailingArg.matcher(handlerBlock);
+        assertTrue(m.find(), "could not locate listFleet(...)'s trailing boolean argument in the "
+                + "listHandler block -- the call shape changed, update this test's anchor: " + handlerBlock);
+        String trailing = m.group(1);
+        assertEquals("coordinatorVisibleTo(principal(exchange))", trailing,
+                "the fleet_list handler must ask coordinatorVisibleTo(principal(exchange)) who is "
+                        + "calling, not pass a literal boolean -- found: " + trailing);
+    }
+
     // --- which action each tool hands the gate (fleetd #272) ------------------------------------
 
     /**
@@ -231,10 +299,18 @@ class FleetMcpAuthzTest {
 
     @Test
     void everyRegisteredToolHasItsHandlerActionPinned() {
-        Set<String> registered = toolsTheServerRegisters();
+        // fleetd #469: this used to scrape FleetMcp.java's tool("…") calls for the registered set —
+        // a third copy of the same list this file, CharterToolSurfaceTest and McpContractDocTest
+        // each kept independently. All three now read FleetTool.wireNames(), the canonical set
+        // FleetMcp itself derives its tool schemas AND its authorization switch from; adding a tool
+        // there without pinning its action in FleetMcp#authzAction is a compile error, so this test's
+        // per-tool assertions below are a run-time regression pin on top of that compile-time check,
+        // not the only thing standing between a new tool and an unpinned action.
+        Set<String> registered = FleetTool.wireNames();
         assertTrue(registered.size() >= 10,
-                "scraped only " + registered.size() + " tool registrations from FleetMcp (" + registered
-                        + "); the server registers eleven, so the tool(\"…\") scrape has stopped matching");
+                "FleetTool.wireNames() returned only " + registered.size() + " tool(s) (" + registered
+                        + "); the server registers eleven, so FleetTool has stopped listing the real "
+                        + "tool surface");
         registered.forEach(tool -> assertDoesNotThrow(() -> FleetMcp.toolAction(tool, Map.of()),
                 () -> tool + " is registered but has no pinned authorization action"));
 
@@ -254,19 +330,6 @@ class FleetMcpAuthzTest {
                 FleetMcp.toolAction("fleet_poll", Map.of("coordId", "mac-opus")));
     }
 
-    private static Set<String> toolsTheServerRegisters() {
-        try {
-            Matcher matcher = TOOL_REGISTRATION.matcher(Files.readString(MCP_SOURCE));
-            Set<String> tools = new LinkedHashSet<>();
-            while (matcher.find()) {
-                tools.add(matcher.group(1));
-            }
-            return tools;
-        } catch (Exception e) {
-            throw new AssertionError("could not scrape FleetMcp tool registrations", e);
-        }
-    }
-
     @Test
     void aWorkerMayNotDrainAnotherSessionsInboxByPolling() {
         FleetMcp m = mcp(true);

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcpHandoverTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,261 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.Authz;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.CallerResolver;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.MemberRegistry;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.Principal;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.PaneLocator;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.Injector;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadRollover;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.InMemoryReplyInbox;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.MessageService;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.Rendezvous;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.FakeWorktrees;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionManager;
+import io.modelcontextprotocol.spec.McpSchema;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.AfterEach;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Set;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #480 Unit C — the {@code fleet_handover} MCP tool, the surface that finally calls
+ * {@link LeadRollover#open}/{@link LeadRollover#confirm}/{@link LeadRollover#cancel}.
+ *
+ * <p>Uses {@link LeadRollover}'s PUBLIC constructor (real wall clock, real 250ms settle poll, a
+ * real virtual-thread continuation runner) rather than its package-private test constructor —
+ * this test lives in {@code dev.ltms.fleet.mcp}, not {@code dev.ltms.fleet.lead}, and does not
+ * need to control the post-{@code confirm()} continuation's timing: it only asserts the
+ * SYNCHRONOUS return value of {@code open}/{@code confirm}/{@code cancel}, which is exactly what
+ * {@code FleetMcp.handover} forwards to the client. {@code turnSettleSeconds}/{@code
+ * clearSettleSeconds} are kept at 1s so a confirmed request's background continuation (which this
+ * class does not wait on or assert against) gives up quickly rather than polling for 20s on a
+ * daemon virtual thread.
+ */
+class FleetMcpHandoverTest {
+
+    @TempDir
+    Path tmp;
+
+    private static final String LEAD = "term_lead";
+    private static final String OTHER_LEAD = "term_other_lead";
+
+    private final FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+    private final AgentControl agents = new AgentControl(herdr);
+    private FleetMcp mcp;
+
+    @AfterEach
+    void close() {
+        if (mcp != null) mcp.close();
+    }
+
+    private static FleetConfig.LeadRollover cfg(String handoverPath) {
+        return new FleetConfig.LeadRollover(handoverPath, false, 3600, 1, 1, "read the handover file");
+    }
+
+    private LeadRollover newRollover(String handoverPath) {
+        // Every handoverPath this test class uses comes from tmp.resolve(...), which is already
+        // absolute, so the workspace lookup is never actually consulted — a no-op lookup is enough.
+        return new LeadRollover(agents, () -> cfg(handoverPath), _ -> null);
+    }
+
+    /** A fully wired FleetMcp on fakes (mirrors FleetMcpAuthzTest's helper), plus a leadRollover. */
+    private FleetMcp mcp(LeadRollover leadRollover) {
+        FleetConfig.Profile pcfg = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "ltms-local", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", null,
+                "tab", "fleetd-workers", "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        ClaudeCodeLauncher workers = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(agents, new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
+                new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")), Map.of(pcfg.profile(), pcfg), pcfg.profile(),
+                _ -> "tok");
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workers, new FakeWorktrees());
+        MessageService messages = new MessageService(agents, new Injector(agents), new Rendezvous(),
+                new InMemoryReplyInbox());
+        ConnectionIdentity identity = new ConnectionIdentity(new PaneLocator(herdr), _ -> 999_999);
+
+        mcp = new FleetMcp(messages, workers, sessions, identity, sessions.asPresence(),
+                new PrimaryRegistry(null),
+                CallerResolver.withLeadsAndMembers(identity, false, null, Map::of, new MemberRegistry(null)),
+                null, FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), null, FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(),
+                FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(), List.of(), leadRollover);
+        return mcp;
+    }
+
+    private static String textOf(McpSchema.CallToolResult r) {
+        return ((McpSchema.TextContent) r.content().getFirst()).text();
+    }
+
+    private static String extractToken(String json) {
+        int i = json.indexOf("\"token\":\"");
+        assertTrue(i >= 0, "no token field in: " + json);
+        int start = i + "\"token\":\"".length();
+        int end = json.indexOf('"', start);
+        return json.substring(start, end);
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 1: registered whether or not leadRollover: is configured -------------------
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("fleet_handover is registered whether or not leadRollover: is configured")
+    void registeredEitherWay() {
+        assertTrue(FleetTool.wireNames().contains("fleet_handover"),
+                "FleetTool must list fleet_handover as part of the canonical tool surface");
+
+        FleetMcp withNull = mcp(null);
+        assertTrue(withNull.registeredTools().stream().anyMatch(t -> "fleet_handover".equals(t.name())),
+                "fleet_handover must be registered even with no LeadRollover constructed");
+        withNull.close();
+
+        FleetMcp withConfigured = mcp(newRollover(tmp.resolve("h.md").toString()));
+        assertTrue(withConfigured.registeredTools().stream().anyMatch(t -> "fleet_handover".equals(t.name())),
+                "fleet_handover must be registered when a LeadRollover IS constructed too");
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 2: null LeadRollover -> clean NOT_CONFIGURED, no throw, every action -------
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("with leadRollover: absent, every action returns a clean NOT_CONFIGURED refusal and never throws")
+    void nullLeadRolloverRefusesCleanlyForEveryAction() {
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult open = assertDoesNotThrow(
+                () -> FleetMcp.handover(null, LEAD, Map.of("action", "open")));
+        assertFalse(open.isError(), "a refusal is not a protocol error: " + textOf(open));
+        assertTrue(textOf(open).contains("NOT_CONFIGURED"), textOf(open));
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult confirm = assertDoesNotThrow(() -> FleetMcp.handover(null, LEAD,
+                Map.of("action", "confirm", "token", "whatever")));
+        assertFalse(confirm.isError());
+        assertTrue(textOf(confirm).contains("NOT_CONFIGURED"), textOf(confirm));
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult cancel = assertDoesNotThrow(() -> FleetMcp.handover(null, LEAD,
+                Map.of("action", "cancel", "token", "whatever")));
+        assertFalse(cancel.isError());
+        assertTrue(textOf(cancel).contains("NOT_CONFIGURED"), textOf(cancel));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a blank/unknown action is a clean tool error, never an exception")
+    void unknownActionIsACleanError() {
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult missing = assertDoesNotThrow(() -> FleetMcp.handover(null, LEAD, Map.of()));
+        assertTrue(missing.isError());
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult bogus = assertDoesNotThrow(
+                () -> FleetMcp.handover(null, LEAD, Map.of("action", "bogus")));
+        assertTrue(bogus.isError());
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 3: non-primary refused by the authorization gate ---------------------------
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("fleet_handover maps to Authz.Action.HANDOVER, primary-only")
+    void onlyThePrimaryIsPermitted() {
+        assertEquals(Authz.Action.HANDOVER, FleetMcp.toolAction("fleet_handover", Map.of()));
+
+        FleetMcp m = mcp(null);
+        assertNull(m.denyFor(Principal.primary(1), Authz.Action.HANDOVER, null),
+                "the primary may drive fleet_handover");
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult deniedWorker =
+                m.denyFor(Principal.worker("term_w", 2), Authz.Action.HANDOVER, null);
+        assertNotNull(deniedWorker, "a worker must be refused fleet_handover");
+        assertTrue(deniedWorker.isError());
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult deniedArchitect =
+                m.denyFor(Principal.architect("slot", "term_a", 3), Authz.Action.HANDOVER, null);
+        assertNotNull(deniedArchitect, "an architect has no lifecycle rights either — same gate as SPAWN/STOP/DRAIN");
+        assertTrue(deniedArchitect.isError());
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 4: the registered schema names no caller-terminal parameter ----------------
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("the registered fleet_handover schema names no terminal/session/leadTerminal parameter")
+    void schemaCarriesNoCallerIdentityParameter() {
+        FleetMcp m = mcp(null);
+        McpSchema.Tool tool = m.registeredTools().stream()
+                .filter(t -> "fleet_handover".equals(t.name()))
+                .findFirst()
+                .orElseThrow(() -> new AssertionError("fleet_handover was not registered"));
+
+        @SuppressWarnings("unchecked")
+        Map<String, Object> properties = (Map<String, Object>) tool.inputSchema().get("properties");
+        assertNotNull(properties, "tool has no 'properties' in its input schema");
+        for (String forbidden : List.of("terminal", "sessionId", "leadTerminal", "callerTerminal", "target")) {
+            assertFalse(properties.containsKey(forbidden),
+                    "fleet_handover's REGISTERED schema must not carry a caller-identity parameter, "
+                            + "found '" + forbidden + "' in " + properties.keySet());
+        }
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 5: open then confirm on the same connection; ownership is enforced --------
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("open then confirm on the same terminal succeeds; a different terminal gets NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER")
+    void openThenConfirmRoundTripsAndOwnershipIsEnforced() throws Exception {
+        Path handover = tmp.resolve("handover.md");
+        Files.writeString(handover, "not written yet");
+        LeadRollover rollover = newRollover(handover.toString());
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult openResult = FleetMcp.handover(rollover, LEAD, Map.of("action", "open"));
+        assertFalse(openResult.isError(), textOf(openResult));
+        String token = extractToken(textOf(openResult));
+
+        // Rewrite the handover file so its mtime is measurably after open()'s requestedAtMillis —
+        // LeadRollover#confirm's freshness check (HANDOVER_STALE) requires this.
+        Thread.sleep(50);
+        Files.writeString(handover, "the real handover content");
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult wrongCaller = FleetMcp.handover(rollover, OTHER_LEAD,
+                Map.of("action", "confirm", "token", token));
+        assertFalse(wrongCaller.isError(), "a refusal is a legitimate outcome, not a protocol error");
+        assertTrue(textOf(wrongCaller).contains("NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER"),
+                "a different lead terminal confirming must surface NOT_YOUR_ROLLOVER: " + textOf(wrongCaller));
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult confirmed = FleetMcp.handover(rollover, LEAD,
+                Map.of("action", "confirm", "token", token));
+        assertFalse(confirmed.isError(), textOf(confirmed));
+        assertTrue(textOf(confirmed).contains("\"accepted\":true"),
+                "the SAME terminal that opened the request must be able to confirm it: " + textOf(confirmed));
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 6: cancel on an unknown token is clean, not a failure ----------------------
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("cancel on an unknown token reports no pending request, rather than failing")
+    void cancelUnknownTokenIsCleanNotAFailure() {
+        LeadRollover rollover = newRollover(tmp.resolve("h.md").toString());
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult r = FleetMcp.handover(rollover, LEAD,
+                Map.of("action", "cancel", "token", "does-not-exist"));
+        assertFalse(r.isError());
+        assertTrue(textOf(r).contains("\"cancelled\":false"), textOf(r));
+        assertTrue(textOf(r).contains("no pending request"), textOf(r));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("cancel on a token actually opened reports cancelled:true")
+    void cancelKnownTokenSucceeds() {
+        LeadRollover rollover = newRollover(tmp.resolve("h.md").toString());
+        String token = extractToken(textOf(FleetMcp.handover(rollover, LEAD, Map.of("action", "open"))));
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult r = FleetMcp.handover(rollover, LEAD,
+                Map.of("action", "cancel", "token", token));
+        assertFalse(r.isError());
+        assertTrue(textOf(r).contains("\"cancelled\":true"), textOf(r));
+    }
+
+    // --- acceptance 7 (wiring) is covered by FleetdLeadRolloverWiringTest, unchanged -----------
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcpTest.java

@@ -352,7 +352,7 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
                 fail("a lead fleet_reply must not publish to the worker inbox");
             }
             @Override public List<InboxMessage> peek(String target) { return List.of(); }
-            @Override public void ack(String target, String msgId) { }
+            @Override public boolean ack(String target, String msgId) { return false; }
         };
         MessageService leadMessages = new MessageService(agents, new Injector(agents), new Rendezvous(),
                 inboxThatRejectsPublishes);
@@ -574,6 +574,38 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantinedForSeconds\":1800"), out);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #466 scope item 2: {@code fleet_profiles} must carry the repeat count beside the
+     * remaining seconds, and the two must come off the one {@link BackendQuarantine#status} call so
+     * they can never disagree about which streak this is (see {@code profilesView}'s javadoc).
+     */
+    @Test
+    void profilesReportsQuarantineAttemptBesideRemainingSeconds() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong now = new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(now::get, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai"); // attempt 1: 1800s
+        now.set(TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai"); // attempt 2: 3600s
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(
+                profile -> "ltms-local".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, quarantine);
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.profiles(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), source);
+        String out = textOf(res);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantinedForSeconds\":3600"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantineAttempt\":2"), out);
+    }
+
+    /** A never-quarantined profile must not carry {@code quarantineAttempt} either. */
+    @Test
+    void profilesOmitsQuarantineAttemptWhenNotQuarantined() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.profiles(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none());
+        String out = textOf(res);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("quarantineAttempt"), out);
+    }
+
     /** fleetd #201 Unit 5: {@code coolingOff} is a SEPARATE map from {@code quarantined}. */
     @Test
     void profilesReportsACoolingOffCredentialInASeparateMap() {
@@ -626,8 +658,8 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
                 workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
                 FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
-                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()));
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), true);
 
         String out = textOf(res);
         // fleetd #361: reports both which coord-id a peer must use to reach ME, and this daemon's
@@ -655,8 +687,8 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
                 workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
                 FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
-                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()));
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), true);
 
         String out = textOf(res);
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"mailbox\":{\"status\":\"unknown\"}"), out);
@@ -676,6 +708,118 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
                 "an ordinary fleet's output must be unchanged by this feature");
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #463: a compat overload called with no {@code callerIsPrimary} argument at all must
+     * fail closed, not open. Before this fix the hidden default was {@code true}, so a caller that
+     * forgot the argument silently got lead-to-lead coordination state. Lead coordination is fully
+     * configured here (a real channel, a real mailbox) specifically so this is not conflated with
+     * {@link #listOmitsTheCoordinatorRowWhenLeadCoordinationIsOff} -- the row is capable of being
+     * assembled, and the missing argument is the only reason it is not.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void listCompatOverloadWithNoCallerIsPrimaryArgumentOmitsTheCoordinatorKey() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        FakeLeadChannel channel = new FakeLeadChannel("mac-opus")
+                .withMailbox("mac-opus", LeadChannel.MailboxState.exists("mac-opus", 0, 1));
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
+                FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
+                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()));
+
+        String out = textOf(res);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("\"coordinator\""),
+                "no callerIsPrimary argument must fail closed (absent), not open (present): " + out);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #439: a worker calling {@code fleet_list} must get a result with the {@code
+     * coordinator} key <strong>absent</strong> -- not an empty object, not a redacted one -- even
+     * though lead coordination is fully configured and would otherwise report a row. This drives
+     * the same {@code callerIsPrimary} value the MCP handler computes ({@code
+     * Principal.worker(...).isPrimary()}), so it pins the real production boolean, not a literal.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void listOmitsTheCoordinatorKeyEntirelyForAWorkerEvenWhenLeadCoordinationIsOn() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        FakeLeadChannel channel = new FakeLeadChannel("mac-opus")
+                .withMailbox("mac-opus", LeadChannel.MailboxState.exists("mac-opus", 0, 1));
+        boolean callerIsPrimary = Principal.worker("term_a", 1).isPrimary();
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
+                FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), callerIsPrimary);
+
+        String out = textOf(res);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("\"coordinator\""), "a worker must never see the coordinator key at all: " + out);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("mac-opus"), "no fragment of the coordinator row may leak either: " + out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"leads\""), "the rest of the result must still be present: " + out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"members\""), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"healthCoverage\""), out);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #439 acceptance criterion 2: an architect gets exactly the same treatment as a worker.
+     * This is a real, executed test (not just reasoning by analogy) -- it drives the actual
+     * {@code Principal.architect(...).isPrimary()} value the production handler would compute for
+     * an architect caller, through the same gate a worker's call goes through.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void listOmitsTheCoordinatorKeyEntirelyForAnArchitectToo() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        FakeLeadChannel channel = new FakeLeadChannel("mac-opus")
+                .withMailbox("mac-opus", LeadChannel.MailboxState.exists("mac-opus", 0, 1));
+        boolean callerIsPrimary = Principal.architect("lead-designer", "term_design", 400).isPrimary();
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
+                FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), callerIsPrimary);
+
+        String out = textOf(res);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("\"coordinator\""), "an architect must never see the coordinator key either: " + out);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #439 acceptance criterion 3: an explicitly-primary caller sees the coordinator row
+     * fully assembled, with the same content #439 always produced for a primary.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #463 flipped the compat overloads' hidden default from {@code true} to
+     * {@code false} (fail closed), so the old "pre-#439 overload" this test used to compare
+     * against no longer stands in for a primary caller -- it is now exactly the implicit-default
+     * path #463 closes. Verifying the primary path means calling the canonical overload with an
+     * explicit {@code callerIsPrimary=true} directly, as the production {@code fleet_list} handler
+     * does.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void listIsByteForByteUnchangedForThePrimaryCaller() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        FakeLeadChannel channel = new FakeLeadChannel("mac-opus")
+                .withMailbox("mac-opus", LeadChannel.MailboxState.exists("mac-opus", 0, 1));
+
+        String gatedAsPrimary = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
+                FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), true));
+
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"coordinator\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"selfId\":\"mac-opus\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"mailbox\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"heldCount\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"heldDurable\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"held\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+        assertTrue(gatedAsPrimary.contains("\"peers\""), gatedAsPrimary);
+    }
+
     @Test
     void listReportsHeldMessagesWithATruncatedPreviewNeverTheFullBody() {
         FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -691,8 +835,8 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
                 workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
                 FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
-                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()));
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), true);
 
         String out = textOf(res);
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"msgId\":\"m1\""), out);
@@ -723,8 +867,8 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
                 workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
                 FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
-                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()));
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), true);
 
         String out = textOf(res);
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"pending\":0"), out);
@@ -752,8 +896,8 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
                 workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
                 FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
-                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()));
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of()), true);
 
         String out = textOf(res);
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"heldDurable\":false"),
@@ -820,8 +964,9 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.listFleet(
                 workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), sessions, null,
                 FleetMcp.CapacitySource.none(), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
-                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), Map.of(), "",
-                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of("fleet01-lead", "fleet02-lead", "fleet03-lead")));
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "",
+                new FleetMcp.CoordinationSource(channel, List.of("fleet01-lead", "fleet02-lead", "fleet03-lead")), true);
 
         String out = textOf(res);
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"coordId\":\"fleet01-lead\",\"status\":\"exists\",\"pending\":2,\"consumers\":1"), out);
@@ -1008,6 +1153,35 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantinedForSeconds\":1200"), out);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #466 scope item 2: {@code fleet_list}'s capacity rows (CB-583: they reuse quarantine)
+     * must carry {@code quarantineAttempt} beside {@code quarantinedForSeconds}, off the same
+     * {@link BackendQuarantine#status} call as {@code fleet_profiles} -- see {@code capacityView}'s
+     * comment pointing back to {@code profilesView}.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void capacityRowReportsQuarantineAttemptBesideRemainingSeconds() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong now = new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(now::get, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(20));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai"); // attempt 1
+        now.set(TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(20));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai"); // attempt 2
+        now.set(TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(60));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai"); // attempt 3
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(
+                profile -> "terra".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, quarantine);
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 2,
+                () -> Set.of("terra"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                source, Map.of(), ""));
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"credentialId\":\"shared-openai\""), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantineAttempt\":3"), out);
+    }
+
     @Test
     void everyProfileSharingTheQuarantinedCredentialReportsZeroFree() {
         FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -1386,6 +1560,10 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
 
     @Test
     void bridgeAckReturnsConfirmationForValidArgs() {
+        // fleet_ack only reports success for a msgId actually queued in the target's inbox
+        // (fleetd #437) — publish one via the inbox directly rather than asserting on a
+        // fabricated id nothing ever queued.
+        inbox.publish("term_a", "msg-1", "queued reply");
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.ack(messages, "term_a", "msg-1");
         assertNotEquals(Boolean.TRUE, res.isError());
         assertTrue(textOf(res).contains("msg-1"), "response should mention the msgId");
@@ -1398,6 +1576,26 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertTrue(FleetMcp.ack(messages, "  ", "msg-1").isError());
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void bridgeAckOfAnIdInNoInboxIsAnError() {
+        // fleetd #437: fleet_ack used to say "acknowledged <msgId>" for a message it never
+        // touched, because nothing in the chain reported hit vs. miss. "never-queued" is in no
+        // inbox at all, so this must error rather than claim success.
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.ack(messages, "term_a", "never-queued");
+        assertTrue(res.isError());
+        assertTrue(textOf(res).contains("never-queued"), textOf(res));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void bridgeAckOfACoordIdTargetIsAnErrorNamingFleetPoll() {
+        // A coord-id names a peer lead's held mailbox (LeadChannel/LeadMailbox), never a
+        // worker's ReplyInbox — fleet_ack has no route to it and must say so, pointing at
+        // fleet_poll{coordId} instead of reporting a false "acknowledged".
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.ack(messages, "coord-some-peer", "msg-1");
+        assertTrue(res.isError());
+        assertTrue(textOf(res).contains("fleet_poll{coordId}"), textOf(res));
+    }
+
     @Test
     void bridgeAckRemovesSpecificReply() {
         // Queue a reply and capture its msgId.
@@ -1411,8 +1609,18 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         var peeked = messages.drainReplies("term_a");
         assertEquals(1, peeked.size(), "one fresh reply in the inbox");
 
-        // ackReply works (no-op since published with a different UUID, but callable).
-        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> messages.ackReply("term_a", msgId));
+        // fleetd #437: msgId was already drained above (a fresh UUID each publish), so it is no
+        // longer in the inbox — ackReply must now report that miss instead of pretending to ack.
+        assertFalse(messages.ackReply("term_a", msgId));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void bridgeAckRemovingARealQueuedReplyReportsSuccessAndRemovesIt() {
+        // The worker path must not change behaviour: acking a reply that IS still in the inbox
+        // still succeeds and still removes it (fleetd #437).
+        inbox.publish("term_a", "real-1", "still queued");
+        assertTrue(messages.ackReply("term_a", "real-1"), "ack of a real queued reply must report true");
+        assertTrue(inbox.peek("term_a").isEmpty(), "the acked reply must be gone from the inbox");
     }
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetProfilesQuarantineModelReasonFieldsTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
+import io.modelcontextprotocol.spec.McpSchema;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNotEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #446 follow-up (criterion 3): a mutation battery run against the merged PR #457 proved
+ * that deleting either {@code row.put("model", model);} or {@code row.put("reason", reason);}
+ * from {@link FleetMcp#profilesView} left all 1586 existing tests green — nothing exercised a
+ * {@link FleetMcp.QuarantineSource} whose {@code modelFor}/{@code reasonFor} actually return a
+ * value. This class is what makes both deletions red, and also pins the two "must be omitted, not
+ * emitted as null/blank" branches those two {@code if} guards exist for — {@link
+ * FleetMcpTest#profilesReportsAQuarantinedCredential} covers the credential/quarantine-duration
+ * shape but supplies neither function, so it cannot distinguish "the field is missing" from "the
+ * field was never asked for".
+ */
+class FleetProfilesQuarantineModelReasonFieldsTest {
+
+    private static final String PROFILE = "terra";
+    private static final String CREDENTIAL = "cred-terra";
+
+    private static PeerLauncher launcher(FakeHerdr h) {
+        FleetConfig.Profile profile = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                PROFILE, "http://gx00.gw:8000", "claude-opus-5", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", null,
+                "tab", "fleetd-workers", "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        return new ClaudeCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(h), new WorkspaceControl(h),
+                new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")), Map.of(PROFILE, profile), PROFILE, _ -> "tok");
+    }
+
+    private static BackendQuarantine quarantined(String credentialId) {
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        quarantine.quarantine(credentialId);
+        return quarantine;
+    }
+
+    private static String textOf(McpSchema.CallToolResult r) {
+        return ((McpSchema.TextContent) r.content().getFirst()).text();
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void quarantinedRowNamesTheModelAndTheReason() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(
+                _ -> CREDENTIAL, quarantined(CREDENTIAL), _ -> true,
+                _ -> "claude-opus-5", _ -> "The usage limit has been reached");
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.profiles(launcher(h), source);
+        assertNotEquals(Boolean.TRUE, res.isError());
+        String out = textOf(res);
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantined\""), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"model\":\"claude-opus-5\""),
+                "the quarantined row must name the model the fix applies to: " + out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"reason\":\"The usage limit has been reached\""),
+                "the quarantined row must name why it was quarantined: " + out);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void quarantinedRowOmitsModelWhenNoneIsConfigured() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        // null and "" (blank) both exercise the same production guard (`!model.isBlank()`) —
+        // covered together since both must produce the identical outcome: the key absent.
+        for (String noModel : new String[] {null, "", "   "}) {
+            FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(
+                    _ -> CREDENTIAL, quarantined(CREDENTIAL), _ -> true,
+                    _ -> noModel, _ -> "some reason");
+
+            McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.profiles(launcher(h), source);
+            String out = textOf(res);
+
+            assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantined\""), out);
+            assertFalse(out.contains("\"model\""),
+                    "modelFor returned " + (noModel == null ? "null" : "'" + noModel + "'")
+                            + " — the key must be ABSENT, not emitted as null or an empty string: " + out);
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void quarantinedRowOmitsReasonWhenNoneIsKnown() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        for (String noReason : new String[] {null, "", "  "}) {
+            FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(
+                    _ -> CREDENTIAL, quarantined(CREDENTIAL), _ -> true,
+                    _ -> "claude-opus-5", _ -> noReason);
+
+            McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.profiles(launcher(h), source);
+            String out = textOf(res);
+
+            assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantined\""), out);
+            assertFalse(out.contains("\"reason\""),
+                    "reasonFor returned " + (noReason == null ? "null" : "'" + noReason + "'")
+                            + " — the key must be ABSENT, not emitted as null or an empty string: " + out);
+        }
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/McpContractDocTest.java

@@ -27,16 +27,21 @@ import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
  * somewhere to be readable, and that is exactly the sentence that rots. This test is what makes it
  * safe to write.
  *
- * <p><b>It checks source text, not behaviour.</b> It reads the Markdown and reads {@link FleetMcp}'s
- * source, and it only catches a name in the doc that the server does not register. It cannot catch a
- * flow that describes the wrong order, or a parameter name in prose — those are not name-shaped. The
- * doc's own header carries that caveat for its readers.
+ * <p><b>It checks source text, not behaviour.</b> It reads the Markdown, and it only catches a name
+ * in the doc that the server does not register. It cannot catch a flow that describes the wrong
+ * order, or a parameter name in prose — those are not name-shaped. The doc's own header carries
+ * that caveat for its readers.
+ *
+ * <p>fleetd #469: the registered side used to be its own scrape of {@code FleetMcp.java}'s {@code
+ * tool("…")} calls — a third copy of the same list {@code CharterToolSurfaceTest} and {@code
+ * FleetMcpAuthzTest} each kept their own copy of too. All three now read {@link
+ * FleetTool#wireNames()}, the one canonical set {@code FleetMcp} itself derives its tool schemas and
+ * authorization switch from.
  */
 class McpContractDocTest {
 
     /** Tests run with the module directory as cwd, so the repo-root doc is one level up. */
     private static final Path DOC = Path.of("../docs/MCP-Contract.md");
-    private static final Path MCP_SOURCE = Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java");
 
     private static Set<String> matches(Path file, String regex) throws Exception {
         Matcher m = Pattern.compile(regex).matcher(Files.readString(file));
@@ -52,15 +57,10 @@ class McpContractDocTest {
         return matches(DOC, "(fleet_[a-z_]+)");
     }
 
-    /** Every tool {@link FleetMcp} actually registers, read from its {@code tool("…")} calls. */
-    private static Set<String> toolsTheServerRegisters() throws Exception {
-        return matches(MCP_SOURCE, "tool\\(\"(fleet_[a-z_]+)\"");
-    }
-
     @Test
     @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] every fleet_* tool named in MCP-Contract.md is one the server registers")
     void theDocNamesNoToolThatDoesNotExist() throws Exception {
-        Set<String> registered = toolsTheServerRegisters();
+        Set<String> registered = FleetTool.wireNames();
         Set<String> named = toolsNamedInTheDoc();
 
         Set<String> unknown = new LinkedHashSet<>(named);
@@ -84,13 +84,13 @@ class McpContractDocTest {
     @Test
     @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] the doc/server name check is not vacuous — both sides found names")
     void theCheckActuallyHasSomethingToCheck() throws Exception {
-        Set<String> registered = toolsTheServerRegisters();
+        Set<String> registered = FleetTool.wireNames();
         Set<String> named = toolsNamedInTheDoc();
 
         assertTrue(registered.size() >= 10,
-                "scraped only " + registered.size() + " tool registrations from FleetMcp (" + registered
-                        + "); the server registers eleven, so the tool(\"…\") scrape has stopped matching "
-                        + "and the check above is now vacuous");
+                "FleetTool.wireNames() returned only " + registered.size() + " tool(s) (" + registered
+                        + "); the server registers eleven, so FleetTool has stopped listing the real "
+                        + "tool surface and the check above is now vacuous");
         assertTrue(named.size() >= 4,
                 "docs/MCP-Contract.md names only " + named.size() + " fleet_* tool(s) (" + named + "). "
                         + "The flows describe delegation, clarification, detached delivery and the "

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/OpenCodeLauncherTest.java

@@ -762,6 +762,250 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
                 "no IDE server when ideMcpUrl is unset");
     }
 
+    // --- fleetd #393: memberSkills seeding must actually reach an opencode member -------------------
+    //
+    // Before this fix, GitWorktrees#seedSkills copied skill folders into EVERY provisioned
+    // worktree's .claude/skills/ and logged "skill seeding: N of M" regardless of which kind ended
+    // up spawning into that worktree — a claim that held for kind: claude-code (the CLI discovers
+    // that directory on its own) but was a guaranteed no-op for kind: opencode, which has no such
+    // discovery. These tests drive the REAL GitWorktrees#add seeding path (not a hand-built
+    // .claude/skills/ fixture), then spawn an opencode-kind member against the seeded worktree and
+    // assert on what the member can actually consume — an instructions[] entry — not on the
+    // seeding log alone. A minimal, non-hermetic git repo is enough here: unlike
+    // GitWorktreesTest's own seeding tests, nothing in this file cares about core.excludesFile
+    // composition, only about what lands in .claude/skills/ and whether OpenCodeLauncher reads it.
+
+    private static void git(Path cwd, String... args) throws Exception {
+        Process p = new ProcessBuilder(prepend("git", args)).directory(cwd.toFile())
+                .redirectErrorStream(true).start();
+        String out = new String(p.getInputStream().readAllBytes());
+        assertTrue(p.waitFor(30, TimeUnit.SECONDS), "git timed out: git " + String.join(" ", args));
+        assertEquals(0, p.exitValue(), "git " + String.join(" ", args) + " failed:\n" + out);
+    }
+
+    private static List<String> prepend(String head, String... rest) {
+        List<String> cmd = new ArrayList<>();
+        cmd.add(head);
+        cmd.addAll(List.of(rest));
+        return cmd;
+    }
+
+    private static Path initRepo(Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Files.createDirectories(dir);
+        git(dir, "init", "-q", "-b", "main");
+        git(dir, "config", "user.email", "test@example.invalid");
+        git(dir, "config", "user.name", "Test");
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("README.md"), "seed\n");
+        git(dir, "add", "README.md");
+        git(dir, "commit", "-q", "-m", "seed");
+        return dir;
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aSeededSkillReachesTheOpencodeMembersInstructionsArray(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Path skillsSource = tmp.resolve("skills-src");
+        Path skillFile = skillsSource.resolve("implementer").resolve("SKILL.md");
+        Files.createDirectories(skillFile.getParent());
+        Files.writeString(skillFile, "IMPLEMENTER PROCEDURE\n");
+
+        // The real seeding path (fleetd #362), not a hand-built .claude/skills/ fixture — proves
+        // OpenCodeLauncher reads what GitWorktrees#add actually produced.
+        dev.ltms.fleet.session.GitWorktrees worktrees =
+                new dev.ltms.fleet.session.GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString(), null, skillsSource.toString());
+        String wt = worktrees.add(repo.toString(), "cb-393-opencode", "HEAD");
+        Path seededSkillMd = Path.of(wt, ".claude", "skills", "implementer", "SKILL.md");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(seededSkillMd),
+                "sanity: the real seeding step must have copied the skill into the worktree");
+
+        Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(OpenCodeLauncher.class);
+        Level original = logger.getLevel();
+        logger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.start();
+        logger.addAppender(appender);
+
+        String cfgPath;
+        try {
+            // No mcpUrl, no ideUrl, no fleet (no charter): the seeded skill alone must be enough to
+            // trigger OPENCODE_CONFIG — proves the gate itself was updated, not only writeConfig's body.
+            FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+            Path configRoot = Files.createDirectory(tmp.resolve("configs"));
+            service(herdr, configRoot, opencodeIdeCfg(null, null, wt)).spawn();
+            cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        } finally {
+            logger.detachAppender(appender);
+            logger.setLevel(original);
+        }
+
+        assertNotNull(cfgPath, "a seeded skill with nothing else configured must still write a config");
+        JsonNode json = new ObjectMapper().readTree(Path.of(cfgPath).toFile());
+        List<String> instructions = new ArrayList<>();
+        json.path("instructions").forEach(n -> instructions.add(n.asText()));
+        assertTrue(instructions.contains(seededSkillMd.toAbsolutePath().toString()),
+                "the seeded skill's SKILL.md must be an instructions[] entry — got: " + instructions);
+
+        List<String> infos = appender.list.stream()
+                .filter(e -> e.getLevel() == Level.INFO)
+                .map(ILoggingEvent::getFormattedMessage)
+                .toList();
+        assertTrue(infos.stream().anyMatch(m -> m.contains("skill delivery") && m.contains("1 of 1")),
+                "the launcher must log, kind-aware, that it delivered the skill — got:\n" + infos);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aSkillFolderWithoutSkillMdIsNeverDeliveredAndTheLogNamesIt(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path wt = Files.createDirectories(tmp.resolve("wt"));
+        Path goodSkill = wt.resolve(".claude").resolve("skills").resolve("implementer");
+        Files.createDirectories(goodSkill);
+        Files.writeString(goodSkill.resolve("SKILL.md"), "GOOD\n");
+        Path halfShipped = wt.resolve(".claude").resolve("skills").resolve("half-shipped");
+        Files.createDirectories(halfShipped);
+        Files.writeString(halfShipped.resolve("README.md"), "no SKILL.md here\n");
+
+        Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(OpenCodeLauncher.class);
+        Level original = logger.getLevel();
+        logger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.start();
+        logger.addAppender(appender);
+
+        String cfgPath;
+        try {
+            FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+            Path configRoot = Files.createDirectory(tmp.resolve("configs"));
+            service(herdr, configRoot, opencodeIdeCfg(null, null, wt.toString())).spawn();
+            cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        } finally {
+            logger.detachAppender(appender);
+            logger.setLevel(original);
+        }
+
+        JsonNode json = new ObjectMapper().readTree(Path.of(cfgPath).toFile());
+        List<String> instructions = new ArrayList<>();
+        json.path("instructions").forEach(n -> instructions.add(n.asText()));
+        assertTrue(instructions.contains(goodSkill.resolve("SKILL.md").toAbsolutePath().toString()),
+                "the well-formed skill is still delivered alongside the malformed one");
+        assertFalse(instructions.stream().anyMatch(i -> i.contains("half-shipped")),
+                "a skill folder with no SKILL.md can never become an instructions[] entry");
+
+        List<String> infos = appender.list.stream()
+                .filter(e -> e.getLevel() == Level.INFO)
+                .map(ILoggingEvent::getFormattedMessage)
+                .toList();
+        assertTrue(infos.stream().anyMatch(m -> m.contains("skill delivery") && m.contains("1 of 2")
+                        && m.contains("half-shipped") && m.contains("could not be delivered")),
+                "the log must say plainly which folder could not be consumed and why — got:\n" + infos);
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd #393 follow-up: instructions[] has three writers (charter, seeded skills, IDE
+    // rules), and no test above ever exercises more than one or two of them together. A writer
+    // that flips from withArray (get-or-create) to putArray (create-or-REPLACE) silently deletes
+    // every entry written before it — proven live on this branch's merge: switching just the
+    // skills writer to putArray left the entire suite (1603 tests) green while deleting the
+    // charter entry an opencode member needs for its role contract. That hazard was found by the
+    // fleet01 lead and independently verified against this branch; it is not a defect in the
+    // skills-delivery or logging tests above, which both hold up under their own mutations — the
+    // gap is that none of them combine all three writers in one config.
+    //
+    // These three tests assert instructions[] CONTENT as an exact, ordered list, not a size or a
+    // "contains" check: a putArray mutation can replace N entries with a different N entries of
+    // the same count, so only a content comparison can tell "all three paths present" apart from
+    // "two paths present that replaced the earlier ones".
+
+    @Test
+    void instructionsArrayHoldsExactlyTheCharterWhenNothingElseWritesToIt(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig.Fleet fleet = new FleetConfig.Fleet(Map.of(), Map.of(), Map.of(), Map.of(),
+                Map.of("dev", "role rule"), null);
+        Path cwd = Files.createDirectory(root.resolve("checkout"));
+        service(herdr, root, opencodeIdeCfg(null, null, cwd.toString()), () -> fleet).spawn();
+
+        String cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        assertNotNull(cfgPath, "a role charter alone still writes a config");
+        JsonNode json = new ObjectMapper().readTree(Path.of(cfgPath).toFile());
+        Path charter = Path.of(cfgPath).resolveSibling("member-charter.md");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(charter), "the charter file was written");
+
+        List<String> instructions = new ArrayList<>();
+        json.path("instructions").forEach(n -> instructions.add(n.asText()));
+        assertEquals(List.of(charter.toAbsolutePath().toString()), instructions,
+                "with only the charter writer active, instructions[] holds exactly one entry: the "
+                        + "charter — got: " + instructions);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void instructionsArrayHoldsCharterThenIdeRulesInOrder(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig.Fleet fleet = new FleetConfig.Fleet(Map.of(), Map.of(), Map.of(), Map.of(),
+                Map.of("dev", "role rule"), null);
+        Path cwd = Files.createDirectory(root.resolve("checkout"));
+        service(herdr, root, opencodeIdeCfg(null,
+                "http://127.0.0.1:29170/index-mcp/streamable-http", cwd.toString()), () -> fleet).spawn();
+
+        String cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        assertNotNull(cfgPath, "charter + IDE rules still writes a config");
+        JsonNode json = new ObjectMapper().readTree(Path.of(cfgPath).toFile());
+        Path charter = Path.of(cfgPath).resolveSibling("member-charter.md");
+        Path rules = Path.of(cfgPath).resolveSibling("ide-rules.md");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(charter), "the charter file was written");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(rules), "the ide-rules file was written");
+
+        List<String> instructions = new ArrayList<>();
+        json.path("instructions").forEach(n -> instructions.add(n.asText()));
+        assertEquals(List.of(charter.toAbsolutePath().toString(), rules.toAbsolutePath().toString()),
+                instructions,
+                "with charter + IDE-rules writers active, instructions[] holds both, charter first — "
+                        + "got: " + instructions);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void instructionsArrayHoldsCharterThenSkillsThenIdeRulesInOrder(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Path skillsSource = tmp.resolve("skills-src");
+        Path skillFile = skillsSource.resolve("implementer").resolve("SKILL.md");
+        Files.createDirectories(skillFile.getParent());
+        Files.writeString(skillFile, "IMPLEMENTER PROCEDURE\n");
+
+        dev.ltms.fleet.session.GitWorktrees worktrees = new dev.ltms.fleet.session.GitWorktrees(
+                tmp.resolve("wts").toString(), null, skillsSource.toString());
+        String wt = worktrees.add(repo.toString(), "cb-393-follow-up", "HEAD");
+        Path seededSkillMd = Path.of(wt, ".claude", "skills", "implementer", "SKILL.md");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(seededSkillMd), "sanity: the real seeding step copied the skill");
+
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig.Fleet fleet = new FleetConfig.Fleet(Map.of(), Map.of(), Map.of(), Map.of(),
+                Map.of("dev", "role rule"), null);
+        Path configRoot = Files.createDirectory(tmp.resolve("configs"));
+        service(herdr, configRoot, opencodeIdeCfg(null,
+                "http://127.0.0.1:29170/index-mcp/streamable-http", wt), () -> fleet).spawn();
+
+        String cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        assertNotNull(cfgPath, "charter + skills + IDE rules still writes a config");
+        JsonNode json = new ObjectMapper().readTree(Path.of(cfgPath).toFile());
+        Path charter = Path.of(cfgPath).resolveSibling("member-charter.md");
+        Path rules = Path.of(cfgPath).resolveSibling("ide-rules.md");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(charter), "the charter file was written");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(rules), "the ide-rules file was written");
+
+        List<String> instructions = new ArrayList<>();
+        json.path("instructions").forEach(n -> instructions.add(n.asText()));
+        // Exact ordered list, not size or "contains": a putArray mutation on any writer after the
+        // charter replaces every entry written before it, and the replacement can still be a
+        // plausible-looking array of a different shape. This is the one combination all three
+        // writers are active for — and per fleet01 the realistic shape on a host where weighted
+        // placement makes opencode the default for most members.
+        assertEquals(List.of(charter.toAbsolutePath().toString(),
+                        seededSkillMd.toAbsolutePath().toString(),
+                        rules.toAbsolutePath().toString()),
+                instructions,
+                "with all three writers active, instructions[] must hold charter, then the seeded "
+                        + "skill, then IDE rules — in that order and with nothing replaced. A "
+                        + "putArray mutation on any writer after the charter would silently drop "
+                        + "earlier entries here while still producing a same-shaped array — got: "
+                        + instructions);
+    }
+
     // --- fleetd #219: config root + discovery root under memberHerdrSocket ------------------------
 
     /** A config with {@code memberHerdrSocket:} set, and optionally {@code worktreeRoot:}/{@code worktreeGroup:}. */

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/AmqpReplyInboxContractTest.java

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import java.util.List;
 import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
 
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertThrows;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
 
@@ -221,6 +222,31 @@ class AmqpReplyInboxContractTest {
         }
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void ackReportsHitVsMissAgainstARealBroker() throws Exception {
+        // fleetd #437: fleet_ack said "acknowledged <msgId>" for a message it never touched,
+        // because ReplyInbox.ack() (void) could not tell a hit from a miss. Pin the fixed
+        // boolean contract against a real broker — the adapter fleetd actually runs live.
+        String target = "worker-ack-contract-" + System.nanoTime();
+        try (AmqpReplyInbox inbox = AmqpReplyInbox.open(uri())) {
+            inbox.own(target);
+
+            // Never held for this target at all: must report false, not throw.
+            assertFalse(inbox.ack(target, "never-held"),
+                    "acking a msgId never held for an owned target must report false");
+
+            // A real message: first ack removes it and reports true...
+            inbox.publish(target, "m1", "ack me");
+            assertEquals(1, awaitPeek(inbox, target).size(), "the published reply should be held");
+            assertTrue(inbox.ack(target, "m1"), "acking a held reply must report true");
+            assertTrue(inbox.peek(target).isEmpty(), "an acked reply is dropped");
+
+            // ...and the second ack of the SAME msgId has nothing left to remove: false.
+            assertFalse(inbox.ack(target, "m1"),
+                    "acking the same msgId twice must report false the second time");
+        }
+    }
+
     @Test
     void confirmedPublishDeliversNormally() throws Exception {
         String target = "worker-confirm-" + System.nanoTime();

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/InMemoryReplyInboxTest.java

@@ -41,20 +41,20 @@ class InMemoryReplyInboxTest {
     @Test
     void ackRemovesTheMessage() {
         inbox.publish("term_a", "m1", "hello");
-        inbox.ack("term_a", "m1");
+        assertTrue(inbox.ack("term_a", "m1"), "fleetd #437: ack of a real entry must report true");
         assertTrue(inbox.peek("term_a").isEmpty(), "after ack, the message is gone");
     }
 
     @Test
     void ackForUnknownMsgIdIsNoOp() {
         inbox.publish("term_a", "m1", "hello");
-        inbox.ack("term_a", "no-such-id"); // no-op
+        assertFalse(inbox.ack("term_a", "no-such-id"), "fleetd #437: a miss must report false"); // no-op
         assertEquals(1, inbox.peek("term_a").size(), "the published message is still there");
     }
 
     @Test
     void ackForUnknownTargetIsNoOp() {
-        inbox.ack("no-such-target", "m1"); // no-op, should not throw
+        assertFalse(inbox.ack("no-such-target", "m1"), "fleetd #437: a miss must report false"); // no-op, should not throw
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -167,7 +167,7 @@ class InMemoryReplyInboxTest {
     @Test
     void peekAndAckAreNoOpsForUnownedTarget() {
         assertTrue(inbox.peek("term_not_owned").isEmpty());
-        inbox.ack("term_not_owned", "m1"); // no-op, should not throw
+        assertFalse(inbox.ack("term_not_owned", "m1"), "fleetd #437: a miss must report false"); // no-op, should not throw
     }
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/BackendQuarantineTest.java

@@ -116,4 +116,262 @@ class BackendQuarantineTest {
         assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class, () -> new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, 0L));
         assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class, () -> new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, -1L));
     }
+
+    // --- fleetd #466: escalating cooldown -----------------------------------------------------
+    //
+    // Base cooldown 600s (10 min), multiplier 2.0, ceiling 2400s (4x base) — small round numbers
+    // chosen so every deadline is an exact assertion, not just "greater than before". Each call
+    // below lands at or before the previous deadline (a zero or negative gap), which is always
+    // "no more than one base cooldown after the previous deadline" — i.e. every call continues the
+    // same streak, matching a credential that keeps reporting exhausted with no lull.
+
+    @Test
+    void anInvalidBackoffMultiplierIsRejected() {
+        assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class,
+                () -> new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30), 0.5, TimeUnit.HOURS.toNanos(6)));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aCeilingBelowTheBaseCooldownIsRejected() {
+        assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class,
+                () -> new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30), 2.0, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(10)));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void repeatedExhaustionEscalatesTheCooldownByExactAmounts() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 1st: base cooldown
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(600L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"));
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(100)); // still inside the 1st quarantine (deadline 600s)
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 2nd: 600 * 2^1 = 1200
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(1200L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "a second consecutive exhaustion must double the cooldown, not just increase it");
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1300)); // exactly the 2nd deadline (100 + 1200)
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 3rd: 600 * 2^2 = 2400 (exactly at the ceiling)
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(2400L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void escalationStopsAtTheCeiling() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 1st: 600
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 2nd: 1200, deadline 1800
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 3rd: 600 * 4 = 2400, at the ceiling, deadline 4200
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(4200));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 4th: 600 * 8 = 4800 uncapped, must stay capped at 2400
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(2400L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "the cooldown must never exceed the configured ceiling, however long the streak gets");
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(6600)); // 4th deadline
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 5th: still capped
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(2400L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "pushing well past the ceiling must not budge it");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aQuietGapLongerThanTheBaseCooldownResetsToTheBaseCooldown() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 1st: 600, deadline 600
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 2nd: 1200, deadline 1800
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 3rd: 2400, deadline 4200
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(2400L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"));
+
+        // Quiet for well over one base cooldown (600s) past the 3rd deadline (4200s).
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(20_000));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // treated as a fresh occurrence
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(600L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "a long quiet gap must reset the streak back to the base cooldown");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void escalatingOneCredentialDoesNotSlowAnother() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 1st: 600
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 2nd: 1200
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 3rd: 2400 — three-in-a-row streak on this credential only
+
+        q.quarantine("another-credential"); // its first and only exhaustion
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(600L), q.remainingSeconds("another-credential"),
+                "an unrelated credential's cooldown must stay at the base rate, unaffected by a sibling's streak");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void withEscalationDefaultsToDoublingCappedAtTwelveTimesTheBase() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = BackendQuarantine.withEscalation(now::get, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(1800L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "the first occurrence must still use the base cooldown");
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        assertEquals(OptionalLong.of(3600L), q.remainingSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "the default multiplier must be 2.0");
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd #466 scope item 2: status() reports repeatCount beside remainingSeconds ------------
+
+    @Test
+    void statusReportsAttemptOneForAFirstOccurrenceNeverAbsentOrZero() {
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.HOURS.toNanos(6));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+
+        BackendQuarantine.Status status = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(1800L, status.remainingSeconds());
+        assertEquals(1, status.repeatCount(),
+                "a first-ever occurrence must report attempt 1, not 0 or absent -- 1 means unambiguously "
+                        + "'the first time', where 0 would be indistinguishable from a bug that forgot to count");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void statusIsAbsentWhenTheCredentialIsNotQuarantined() {
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.HOURS.toNanos(6));
+        assertTrue(q.status("shared-openai").isEmpty());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The acceptance criterion's strong form: the reported {@code repeatCount} must match the exact
+     * step the cooldown's own growth implies, read off {@link BackendQuarantine#status}'s single
+     * call -- not two independent reads that happen to agree in this easy case.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void statusReportsTheGrowingAttemptCountAlongsideTheEscalatingCooldown() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 1st: 600s, attempt 1
+        BackendQuarantine.Status first = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(600L, first.remainingSeconds());
+        assertEquals(1, first.repeatCount());
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 2nd: 1200s, attempt 2
+        BackendQuarantine.Status second = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(1200L, second.remainingSeconds());
+        assertEquals(2, second.repeatCount());
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 3rd: 2400s (at the ceiling), attempt 3
+        BackendQuarantine.Status third = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(2400L, third.remainingSeconds());
+        assertEquals(3, third.repeatCount());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Once the cooldown hits its ceiling, every further consecutive exhaustion reports the SAME
+     * {@code remainingSeconds} -- so a {@code repeatCount} re-derived from the cooldown value (e.g.
+     * inverting {@code cooldownNanos * multiplier^(n-1)}) could not tell attempt 4 from attempt 9;
+     * only the stored counter can. This is the scenario that makes "read the count off a second,
+     * independent computation" provably wrong rather than just risky.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void repeatCountKeepsGrowingPastTheCeilingEvenThoughTheCooldownStaysFlat() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        long t = 0L;
+        for (int attempt = 1; attempt <= 5; attempt++) {
+            now.set(t);
+            q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+            BackendQuarantine.Status status = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+            assertEquals(attempt, status.repeatCount(),
+                    "attempt " + attempt + " must be reported as exactly " + attempt
+                            + ", not collapsed to whatever attempt first reached the ceiling");
+            if (attempt >= 3) {
+                assertEquals(2400L, status.remainingSeconds(), "attempt " + attempt + " must be capped");
+            }
+            t += status.remainingSeconds(); // land exactly on the next deadline: still the same streak
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aQuietGapResetsTheReportedAttemptCountToOneToo() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // attempt 3
+        assertEquals(3, q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow().repeatCount());
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(20_000)); // long quiet gap
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        assertEquals(1, q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow().repeatCount(),
+                "a reset streak must report attempt 1 again, matching the reset base cooldown");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void escalatingOneCredentialsAttemptCountDoesNotAffectAnother() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600), 2.0,
+                TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(2400));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // 3-in-a-row streak on this credential only
+
+        q.quarantine("another-credential");
+        assertEquals(1, q.status("another-credential").orElseThrow().repeatCount(),
+                "an unrelated credential's attempt count must stay at 1, unaffected by a sibling's streak");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void noneReportsNoStatusForAnything() {
+        BackendQuarantine q = BackendQuarantine.none();
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai"); // no-op on none(), same as every other mutator
+
+        assertTrue(q.status("shared-openai").isEmpty(),
+                "none() quarantines nothing, so it must report no status at all -- never a fabricated "
+                        + "attempt count for a credential that was never actually quarantined");
+    }
+
+    /** The flat (non-escalating) two-argument constructor must still report a real, growing count. */
+    @Test
+    void aFlatTwoArgumentInstanceStillReportsAGrowingAttemptCountEvenThoughTheCooldownStaysFlat() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendQuarantine q = new BackendQuarantine(now::get, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(600));
+
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        BackendQuarantine.Status first = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(600L, first.remainingSeconds());
+        assertEquals(1, first.repeatCount());
+
+        now.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(100)); // still inside the 1st quarantine
+        q.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        BackendQuarantine.Status second = q.status("shared-openai").orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(600L, second.remainingSeconds(),
+                "the flat constructor's cooldown must stay exactly the base length regardless of the streak");
+        assertEquals(2, second.repeatCount(),
+                "the flat constructor still counts the real streak -- it just does not scale the cooldown by it");
+    }
 }

plans/fleet01-standup/plan.md

@@ -0,0 +1,369 @@
+# Plan — move the fleet back onto fleet01
+
+**Goal.** Stop the fleet depending on a laptop that sleeps.
+
+**Written** 2026-09-05. **Rewritten the same day** after the operator pointed out that fleet01 is a VM
+and already has the repo. They were right, and my first draft was wrong in an important way: this is
+not a stand-up. **The whole fleet already ran on fleet01 in August.** It was abandoned, not attempted.
+
+Every fact below was measured on 2026-09-05. Where I did not measure something, the text says so.
+
+---
+
+## Status, re-measured 2026-09-10 — phases 1 to 3 are DONE, and §9 is out of date
+
+This plan is prior art now, not a to-do list. Every number in this section came from a read-only
+survey over `ssh fleet01` on 2026-09-10. **Delete this section and the plan once fleet01 is the
+fleet's only daemon** — at that point the plan has been executed and stops being useful.
+
+| Plan item | State on 2026-09-10 | Command that re-measures it |
+|---|---|---|
+| Phase 1, refresh + build | **done, then drifted.** Checkout is on `main` at `4887731`, **77 commits behind** `origin/main`, 0 ahead. `fleetd/target/fleetd.jar` exists, built 2026-09-10 02:10 UTC. So it was rebuilt, and main has moved since. | `git -C ~/LTMS/fleetd rev-list --count HEAD..origin/main` |
+| Phase 2, port the config | **done.** `fleetd/fleetd.yaml` exists on the host, with `bind`, `profiles`, `configReload`, `fleet`, `health`, `lifecycle`, `guard`, `memberCredentials`, `broker` and `coordinator` all present. | `test -f ~/LTMS/fleetd/fleetd/fleetd.yaml` |
+| Phase 3, supervision | **done.** `~/.config/systemd/user/fleetd.service` and `herdr.service` both exist, both `active` and `enabled`. `loginctl show-user ltms -p Linger` prints `yes`. Exactly 1 java process, so the double-daemon problem in the old `restart.sh` is not present. | `systemctl --user is-active fleetd herdr` |
+| Phase 4-5, reachable and a member proven | **partly.** `/healthz` answers 200 on loopback and reports `{"protocol":19,"version":"0.8.0"}`, matching the herdr pin. 1 herdr socket present. I did not spawn a member from here, so "a member on fleet01 opens a PR" is still unproven by me. | `curl -s http://127.0.0.1:8765/healthz` on the host |
+| Phase 6-7, cutover and reboot proof | **not done.** The Mac still runs its own daemon and is still this fleet's lead. Uptime on fleet01 is 2 weeks 2 days, so no reboot proof has been taken since the units were installed. | `uptime -p` on the host |
+| §9 "not moving the lead yet" | **out of date.** `claude` is installed at `/home/ltms/.local/bin/claude` and a fleet01 lead is live — it reaches this session over the coordination channel. So the headless-login blocker named in §9 is solved. | `ssh fleet01 'command -v claude'` |
+
+### The profiles fleet01 actually offers a member
+
+Measured from the live `fleetd.yaml` on the host, with `placement: weighted`:
+
+| profile | kind | model | weight | maxLoad |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `gx` | opencode | `gx/deepseek-v4-flash` | 100 | 2 |
+| `xf` | opencode | `opencode/mimo-v2.5-free` | 80 | 5 |
+| `local` | claude-code | `deepseek-v4-flash` | 10 | 2 |
+| `opus` | claude-code | `claude-opus-5` | 0 | 1 |
+
+`weighted` spreads by ratio across every profile with a free slot, so an **unqualified** spawn on
+fleet01 lands on `gx` or `xf` almost every time. Pass `profile` explicitly there, as the canonical
+block already says.
+
+### The PATH split on fleet01, which is not the one I expected
+
+I went looking for a defect and found the opposite, so this is written down to stop the next
+session repeating the search.
+
+`opencode` is installed at `/home/ltms/.opencode/bin/opencode`. Whether a shell can see it depends
+on which kind of shell it is:
+
+```
+zsh -ic 'command -v opencode'   ->  /home/ltms/.opencode/bin/opencode   (1 PATH entry)
+zsh -lc 'command -v opencode'   ->  nothing                             (0 PATH entries)
+```
+
+So it is on the **interactive** PATH (`.zshrc`), not the login one. Two consequences, and they
+point in opposite directions:
+
+- A herdr pane on Linux is a plain non-login interactive zsh, so a pane **can** launch `opencode`.
+  fleetd types the launch command into the pane rather than exec'ing it, so `gx` and `xf` are not
+  broken by this. I have not spawned one to confirm, so that is inference from the shell
+  measurement plus the typing behaviour, not an end-to-end result.
+- The daemon itself runs `ExecStart=/bin/zsh -lc "exec java -jar target/fleetd.jar fleetd.yaml"` —
+  a **login** shell, on purpose, because credentials live in `.zprofile`. Its own PATH has 10
+  entries and none contains `opencode`.
+
+**The general shape: the login shell and the interactive shell see different PATHs, and which one
+matters depends on whether fleetd types a command or execs it.** Credentials live on the login
+side; `~/.opencode/bin` lives on the interactive side. Anything fleetd must exec itself is
+invisible to it if it lives only on the interactive PATH — and that is the mirror of the trap the
+login-shell `ExecStart` was added to fix.
+
+---
+
+---
+
+## 1. My first draft was wrong — read this before the rest
+
+I wrote "fleetd is not deployed on fleet01". That was wrong, and I got there by looking in one place
+and concluding about all of them. Three times:
+
+| I checked | I concluded | What is actually true |
+|---|---|---|
+| `~/LTMS/claude-bridge` | "no repo checkout" | the repo is at `~/LTMS/fleetd` — the directory follows the **renamed** repo, and my own notes record that rename |
+| `~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock` | "herdr never ran" | the socket lives at `~/.config/herdr/sessions/fleet01/herdr.sock` — a **named session**, and its server log runs to Aug 28 |
+| both of the above | "fleetd is not deployed" | `~/LTMS/fleetd/fleetd-run/` holds `restart.sh`, `start-herdr.sh` and a `fleetd.out` from **Aug 24** |
+
+The lesson is the one already written down here: enumerate one channel, conclude about all of them.
+A single-path check is not a survey.
+
+---
+
+## 2. What already worked on fleet01, proven from its own log
+
+`~/LTMS/fleetd/fleetd-run/fleetd.out` covers 06:07 to 16:48 on 2026-08-24. It shows:
+
+```
+4 distinct panes                     pane=c2504101-...  w1:pC  w1:pE
+4 worktrees created and removed      /home/ltms/LTMS/.fleet-worktrees/{05f2a7-4,dd9f51-1,f498dd-2,fdb522-3}
+4 allow-list decisions               "memberCredentials allow-list: pane w1:pC allowed 16 of 32 environment variables"
+AMQP on 127.0.0.1:5672               "AMQP connection recovered; cleared held replies for fresh redelivery"
+the full turn machinery              SessionManager transitions, ReplyPushLoop, CompletionResolver fallback
+```
+
+So on fleet01, already: fleetd listened, herdr made panes, members spawned into git worktrees, the
+credential allow-list fed them their environment, and the broker link was **loopback**.
+
+That last point is the whole reason for this move. The AMQP resets in section 3 cannot happen to a
+loopback connection.
+
+### The two traps I was going to design around are already solved there
+
+My first draft named these as the biggest risks. Both were already handled in August:
+
+**Trap A — systemd sources no login shell.** `restart.sh` already starts through one, and says why in
+its own comment:
+
+```sh
+#   1. Start java from a LOGIN shell (zsh -lc). ~/.zprofile is where the credentials live, and a
+#      non-login shell starts the daemon fine with an empty AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN -- a failure that
+#      stays invisible until a member actually needs it.
+setsid zsh -lc "exec java -jar target/bridged.jar fleetd.yaml" < /dev/null > "$RUN/fleetd.out" 2>&1 &
+```
+
+**Trap B — a Linux herdr pane is a plain zsh, so members get no credentials.** Not a problem, and not
+for the reason I assumed. Members do not inherit from the pane's shell profile — fleetd hands them an
+allow-list. The log proves it ran: `allowed 16 of 32 environment variables`, four times. The old
+`fleetd.yaml` has a `memberCredentials:` block that configures it.
+
+**The headless pty trap is solved too.** `start-herdr.sh` carries the fix and the explanation:
+
+```sh
+# Why the size matters: herdr creates each pane sized to the attached client's view. Started
+# under a pty with no winsize, the client reports 0x0, and every pane.split / workspace.create
+# then fails with "ghostty error -2" -- libghostty refusing a 0x0 surface.
+cat > /tmp/herdr-inner.sh <<'INNER'
+stty rows 50 cols 200 2>/dev/null || true
+exec herdr --session fleet01
+INNER
+setsid script -qfec /tmp/herdr-inner.sh /dev/null < /dev/null > /dev/null 2>&1 &
+```
+
+---
+
+## 3. Why we are moving
+
+The daemon runs on a Mac laptop. On battery it idle-sleeps after **one minute**:
+
+```
+pmset -g custom   ->  Battery Power: sleep 1
+                      AC Power:      sleep 0
+```
+
+Since the last restart: 16 `Connection reset` events and 6 ERROR lines, all on the AMQP link. I
+matched every one of the 16 to the nearest sleep or wake event in `pmset -g log`. Largest gap **55
+seconds**; most under 20. Not one reset lacked a nearby sleep or wake. The broker never sees a network
+fault — it sees the client stop sending heartbeats, then closes.
+
+Every reconnect worked, so no message was lost. **The lost messages are not the problem.** The problem
+is that a member mid-turn freezes with the host, and a long worker turn with nobody typing is exactly
+the case that goes idle.
+
+---
+
+## 4. How the two hosts relate today
+
+This answers "why is fleet01 related to this Mac at all?"
+
+```
+   Mac laptop                                    fleet01  (KVM/QEMU guest)
+   ┌────────────────────────────┐                ┌──────────────────────┐
+   │ Claude Code lead           │                │ LavinMQ  :5672       │
+   │ fleetd      127.0.0.1:8765 │  AMQP over     │   vhost /mac         │
+   │ herdr                      │──Tailscale────>│   vhost /fleet01     │
+   │ members + worktrees        │  utun4, 1280   │                      │
+   └────────────────────────────┘                │ (fleetd idle since   │
+                                                 │  Aug 24)             │
+                                                 └──────────────────────┘
+```
+
+**Today fleet01 runs only the broker.** Everything else — daemon, herdr, members — is on the Mac. The
+single link between them is the Mac's fleetd opening AMQP to `10.10.20.13:5672` across Tailscale.
+
+So the errors I reported were **the Mac's client dying when the Mac slept**, not fleet01 failing.
+fleet01 was healthy throughout: the container is up 11 days and its log shows a clean heartbeat
+timeout each time, which is what a broker sees when a client vanishes.
+
+After the move that arrow becomes loopback and the whole class of problem is gone.
+
+---
+
+## 5. The shape we are restoring
+
+```mermaid
+flowchart LR
+    subgraph MAC["Mac laptop (free to sleep)"]
+        LEAD["Claude Code lead"]
+        TUN["ssh -N -L"]
+    end
+    subgraph F01["fleet01 (KVM guest, always on)"]
+        FD["fleetd<br/>127.0.0.1:8765"]
+        HD["herdr --session fleet01"]
+        WT["members<br/>~/LTMS/.fleet-worktrees"]
+        MQ["LavinMQ<br/>127.0.0.1:5672"]
+    end
+    LEAD --> TUN
+    TUN -->|"ssh over Tailscale"| FD
+    FD -->|"unix socket"| HD
+    HD --> WT
+    FD -->|"AMQP, loopback"| MQ
+    WT -->|"AMQP, loopback"| MQ
+```
+
+*The lead stays on the Mac. Everything that must survive a sleep is already able to run on fleet01.*
+
+Two constraints fix this shape:
+
+1. **fleetd, herdr and the worktrees must share one filesystem.** The herdr link is a Unix socket plus
+   absolute path strings. `herdr --remote` is terminal attach, not a transport.
+2. **fleetd fails fast on a non-loopback bind without token auth**, by its own design. So we do not
+   expose `:8765` to the `10.10.20.0/24` LAN. An SSH tunnel keeps the bind on loopback and needs no
+   new secret.
+
+**Why the lead stays on the Mac for now.** A session not in a herdr pane resolves as `primary`, so a
+Mac-side session over the tunnel works with nothing new. What we give up: async ticket nudges type
+into the lead's pane, and fleetd cannot type into a pane on another host — so `wait:false` tickets
+stop nudging and I poll instead. Moving the lead as well is section 9; its hard part is
+authenticating Claude Code on a headless box, which has nothing to do with sleep and must not block
+this.
+
+---
+
+## 6. The actual gap
+
+Everything below is what stands between "it ran in August" and "it runs supervised today".
+
+| # | Gap | Measured state |
+|---|---|---|
+| 1 | **Checkout is stale** | branch `cb-634-ide-mcp`, HEAD `7655f1b` (2026-08-24), **290 commits behind** `origin/main`, 0 ahead |
+| 2 | **Never rebuilt after the rename** | no `target/` anywhere; the scripts still say `bridged.jar` and `cd bridged`, but the tree is now `fleetd/` and `fleetd.jar` |
+| 3 | **No live `fleetd.yaml`** | gitignored, so not in git. Three backups exist under `bridged/` — the newest is `fleetd.yaml.bak-cb634-pin`, 5512 bytes, and it is **clean of inline secrets** (0 inline passwords, 6 uses of `uriEnv`/`tokenEnv`) |
+| 4 | **No supervision** | `Linger=no`; **zero** systemd user unit files. Only the hand-rolled `restart.sh` / `start-herdr.sh` |
+| 5 | **Nothing running now** | no herdr process, no fleetd, no answer on `:8765/healthz` |
+
+Untracked files in the checkout: `.idea/`, `fleetd-run/`, `docs/CB-634-Worker-IDE-Worktree.md`, and the
+three yaml backups. All are **untracked, none modified**, and `7655f1b` is already an ancestor of
+`origin/main` — so nothing is lost by updating the branch. Keep `fleetd-run/` and the backups; they
+are the prior art this plan is built on.
+
+### The old config's keys, which tell us what to port
+
+```
+bind:            herdrSocket: /home/ltms/.config/herdr/sessions/fleet01/herdr.sock
+profiles:        placement: weighted
+configReload:    fleet:              health:
+lifecycle:       guard:              worktreeRoot: /home/ltms/LTMS/.fleet-worktrees
+memberCredentials:                   broker:
+```
+
+`herdrSocket` already points at the **named-session** path, and `memberCredentials` is already
+configured. Those two are what made members work.
+
+### What the repo already has for this
+
+`deploy/fleetd.service` exists and is written for Linux. Three lines need fleet01's real paths:
+`ExecStart` names `/usr/lib/jvm/temurin-25-jdk/bin/java` (fleet01 has `/usr/bin/java`), the `PATH`
+names `/usr/share/maven/bin` (fleet01 has `/usr/bin/mvn`), and `WorkingDirectory` assumes
+`%h/src/claude-bridge`. It also declares `After=herdr.service` — **and no `herdr.service` exists in
+`deploy/`**. Writing that unit, from `start-herdr.sh`, is the one genuinely new piece of code here.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Phases
+
+```mermaid
+flowchart TD
+    P1["1. Refresh<br/>update + build"]
+    P2["2. Config<br/>port fleetd.yaml"]
+    P3["3. Supervise<br/>linger + 2 units"]
+    P4["4. Reachability<br/>tunnel, primary"]
+    P5["5. Prove a member"]
+    P6["6. Cutover"]
+    P7["7. Reboot proof"]
+    P1 --> P2 --> P3 --> P4 --> P5 --> P6 --> P7
+```
+
+**Phase 1 — refresh the checkout.** Update to `origin/main` (290 commits). Keep the untracked
+`fleetd-run/` and the yaml backups. Then `mvn clean install`, **unpiped** — a pipe hides a failure
+behind a zero exit. *Check:* `fleetd/target/fleetd.jar` exists and the suite is green.
+
+**Phase 2 — port the config.** Write `fleetd/fleetd.yaml` from `bridged/fleetd.yaml.bak-cb634-pin`,
+updating it for the rename and 290 commits of config changes. Diff its keys against
+`fleetd/fleetd.example.yaml` on current main, key by key, and say what changed. *Check:* the daemon
+starts and `journalctl ... | grep 'startup secret'` reports **no** `MISSING`.
+
+**Phase 3 — supervision.** This is the part that never existed. `loginctl enable-linger ltms`; write
+`deploy/herdr.service` from `start-herdr.sh`, keeping the `stty` sizing; fix the three path lines in
+`deploy/fleetd.service` and keep the login-shell `ExecStart`; install both under
+`~/.config/systemd/user/`. Secrets go in a `systemctl --user edit` drop-in or a 0600
+`EnvironmentFile`, never in the committed unit. *Check:* log out of every ssh session, log back in,
+and confirm the socket and the daemon are still there. That is what lingering is for, and it is the
+check people skip.
+
+**Phase 4 — reachability.** `ssh -N -L <port>:127.0.0.1:8765 fleet01` from the Mac. Use a **different
+local port** for the first test so the Mac's own daemon on `:8765` is untouched and the whole test is
+reversible. Point the lead's `.mcp.json` at it — that file is `--skip-worktree` and must never be
+committed. Wrap the tunnel in `autossh` or a launchd `KeepAlive`, because the Mac still sleeps.
+*Check:* `fleet_whoami` answers `primary`. If it answers `worker`, the `fleet.leaders.*.tab` pin does
+not match — a known demotion, not a network fault.
+
+**Phase 5 — prove a member.** `healthz` can be green while every spawn fails, so only a real spawn
+proves the herdr link. Spawn one member, then give it a real unit ending in a pushed PR — the push is
+what proves `WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN` resolved. Confirm the allow-list line still appears
+(`allowed N of M environment variables`) and that N is what you expect. *Check:* a member on fleet01
+opens a PR.
+
+**Phase 6 — cutover.** Drain the Mac fleet properly first: `fleet_list`, `fleet_poll` anything still
+wanted, then `fleet_stop` each member — a restart drops in-flight tickets and a member's report is
+gone with its ticket. Then stop the Mac's launchd agent. This is the migration itself, not a change to
+the Mac's settings, and it is reversible in one command.
+
+**Phase 7 — reboot proof.** Reboot fleet01. Without touching anything: socket present, healthz
+answering, `fleet_whoami` still `primary`, one spawn works. Until this passes, "supervised" is a claim.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Risks
+
+| Risk | Why it bites | What this plan does |
+|---|---|---|
+| **290 commits of config drift** | the old yaml predates the rename and much else; a silently defaulted key turns a feature off with no error | phase 2 diffs key-by-key against current `fleetd.example.yaml` |
+| **A new config key gets silently dropped** | `FleetConfig`'s back-compat constructor ladder can absorb an arity change, so a new key compiles and is defaulted away | separate ticket already in flight; matters most here because fleet01 gets a hand-edited yaml |
+| **Nothing supervises herdr** | `deploy/fleetd.service` depends on a unit that does not exist | phase 3 writes it from the working script; phase 7 proves it |
+| **Linger left off** | everything dies at logout and looks fine until then | phase 3, checked by logging out |
+| **Wrong JDK/Maven path in the unit** | fleetd propagates its PATH to every member, so a bad PATH means no member can build | three lines fixed in phase 3, proven by phase 5 |
+| **Headless pty with no winsize** | `ghostty error -2`, reported three steps later as a spawn failure | the `stty` fix is carried into `herdr.service` |
+| **Port 8765 collides during the test** | both daemons want the same local port | phase 4 uses a different local port first |
+| **Tunnel dies when the Mac sleeps** | same sleep, far smaller blast radius — it interrupts my session, not members | `autossh`/launchd `KeepAlive` |
+| **Lead demoted to worker** | the tab pin no longer matches | phase 4's check is `fleet_whoami` |
+| **Upgrading herdr** | 0.8.0 is **protocol 19**, pinned on purpose — 0.8.2 is protocol 20 and fleetd has **no version handshake** | do not upgrade herdr during this work; both hosts measured at 0.8.0 today |
+| **`placement: tab` headless** | fails for the same 0x0 reason as `ghostty error -2` | fleet01 must keep `placement: pane`, as its August config did |
+| **Profile launch settings are deferred** | editing `placement:` and waiting for the 10s config watch does nothing — the launcher holds a startup snapshot | restart the daemon after those keys, do not wait for the reload |
+
+---
+
+## 9. Deliberately not doing
+
+- **No changes to the Mac's power settings or host config.** The point is to stop depending on it.
+- **Not touching the leftover `bridged-lavinmq` container** on the Mac. It is unused and harmless.
+- **Not moving the broker.** It is already on fleet01 and already the durable one. After the move its
+  connection becomes loopback, which is the fix.
+- **Not building a second fleet.** This is a move. Two daemons on one herdr session kill each other's
+  members.
+- **Not moving the lead yet.** That needs Claude Code authenticated on a headless Ubuntu box and a
+  `fleet.leaders.*.tab` pin on its pane. It buys back pane nudges. It has nothing to do with sleep, so
+  it must not hold up phases 1–7. Note that fleet01 already carries an `opus` profile defined purely so the lead slot resolves; it cannot spawn until someone runs `claude` and completes `/login` on the host.
+
+---
+
+## 10. Open questions for the operator
+
+1. **vhost** — keep `/mac`, or rename now the fleet is not on the Mac? Renaming loses the existing
+   queues. (The old fleet01 config used its own; phase 2 must settle which this fleet owns.)
+2. **Fallback week** after cutover, or stop the Mac daemon for good?
+3. **Delete or keep the stale `cb-634-ide-mcp` branch** on fleet01 once the checkout is updated? Its
+   tip is already in main, so nothing is lost either way.
+
+The repo path question from the first draft is answered: **`/home/ltms/LTMS/fleetd`**, which already
+exists. `deploy/fleetd.service` should be pointed there rather than the reverse.