t365: fleet_reply/REST reply distinguish resolved vs queued; rename nudge metric outcome

fleetd #365. fleet_reply always returned the literal "delivered" and
POST /sessions/{id}/reply always returned {"delivered": true}, whether
the reply resolved a live waiting send/ticket or was merely queued in
the inbox for a later drain (CB-307) — both are successes, but not the
same fact.

MessageService.reply() now returns a ReplyOutcome (RESOLVED_SEND,
RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET, or QUEUED) instead of an always-true boolean.
FleetMcp.reply and FleetApp.replyMessage both read it: the MCP tool
result names which happened, and the REST body's "delivered" field is
now accurate, with an added "outcome" field.

Also renames the heartbeat/push-loop nudge metric's "delivered" outcome
to "sent" (LeadHeartbeatLoop, ReplyPushLoop, FleetMetrics): it only
records that the herdr agent.prompt paste-and-submit call succeeded,
never that the lead's pane actually read it — there is no read-receipt
concept at that layer, so "delivered" overclaimed there too.

Tests: MessageServiceTest/FleetMcpTest/FleetAppTest strengthened to
assert the specific outcome per case (a resolved send, a resolved async
ticket, and a queued reply); ReplyPushLoopTest updated for the outcome
rename.

CLAUDE.md

@@ -7,6 +7,14 @@
 > wiki ([Use Cases](https://git.ltms.dev/fleet/fleetd/wiki/7-Use-Cases) → *The portable
 > CLAUDE.md block*); improvements go to the template first, then out to each project. Anything
 > specific to *this* repo lives under §Project addendum below, never inline above it.
+>
+> **Anything you measure in an addendum is perishable.** Date it, give the command that
+> re-measures it and what each outcome means, and tell the reader to delete the section once
+> it stops reproducing. The four parts work together: deciding what would falsify a claim is
+> the expensive step, and a reader in the middle of another task will not pay it, so a bare
+> "verify before relying on this" costs the same space and does nothing. The case this is for
+> is a note that goes stale as a live restriction — it will tell a future session it cannot do
+> the thing at the moment doing it becomes the job.
 
 If no `fleet_*` MCP tools are mounted in this session, this section does not apply — skip it.
 
@@ -100,6 +108,12 @@ below are the procedure — run them in order, every task, not only the big ones
    without having read the diff yourself. A refusal is exactly when that shortcut is tempting,
    because no action is left that forces you to look, and taking it turns this step into
    forwarding a reviewer's verdict — which is delegating the merge by proxy, two lines above.
+   **Test a refusal; do not read it off a permissions field.** A protected branch holds its merge
+   rights separately from the repository permissions, so that field can say yes while the merge is
+   refused, and still say no after a grant makes it work. Probe instead, with a request that cannot
+   succeed on its merits, so a rejection can only mean the refusal. Treat a transport failure as a
+   third answer that proves nothing: a timeout, a DNS error or a bad URL is not a refusal, and
+   counting it as one makes you sure of something you never measured.
 
 **Steps 3 and 4 are separate on purpose** — spawning and sending in one loop is how parallel work
 silently becomes serial, and it is the most common way this layer is wasted. For the same reason,

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java

@@ -870,6 +870,11 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
      * or — when no send is open — queueing the reply in the inbox for later drain (CB-307).
      * {@code callerTerminal} is resolved from the connection (never an argument); a {@code null}
      * means the caller is not a known worker (e.g. the primary called it by mistake).
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #365: the result text names which of those actually happened
+     * ({@link MessageService.ReplyOutcome#description()}) instead of the single word "delivered"
+     * for both — a queued reply is a real success, but it is not the same fact as one that resolved
+     * a live waiter, and the caller could not previously tell them apart.
      */
     static McpSchema.CallToolResult reply(MessageService messages, String callerTerminal, String content) {
         if (callerTerminal == null) {
@@ -884,8 +889,8 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         if (isBlank(content)) {
             return error("content is required");
         }
-        messages.reply(callerTerminal, content);
-        return text("delivered");
+        MessageService.ReplyOutcome outcome = messages.reply(callerTerminal, content);
+        return text(outcome.description());
     }
 
     /** {@code fleet_ack}: acknowledge (remove) a specific reply from the inbox. */

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/metrics/FleetMetrics.java

@@ -56,10 +56,13 @@ public final class FleetMetrics {
         m.describe(REPLIES, "counter",
                 "Worker replies by delivery path (rendezvous=resolved an open send, inbox=stranded and held).");
         m.describe(PUSH_NUDGES, "counter",
-                "CB-307 push-loop nudges to the primary (delivered|exhausted).");
+                "CB-307 push-loop nudges to the primary (sent|exhausted). fleetd #365: \"sent\" means "
+                        + "the herdr paste-and-submit call succeeded, not that the pane read it — this "
+                        + "layer has no read-receipt concept.");
         m.describe(HEARTBEAT_NUDGES, "counter",
-                "CB-551 idle-lead heartbeat nudges (delivered|failed|exhausted). Quiet-cap exhaustion "
-                        + "means the lead idled with nothing pending and was told to stand down.");
+                "CB-551 idle-lead heartbeat nudges (sent|failed|exhausted). Quiet-cap exhaustion "
+                        + "means the lead idled with nothing pending and was told to stand down. "
+                        + "fleetd #365: \"sent\" means the herdr call succeeded, not that the lead read it.");
         m.describe(SPAWNS, "counter",
                 "Worker spawn attempts by peer kind and outcome (ready|timeout|guard_rejected).");
         m.describe(HERDR_CALLS, "counter",

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/LeadHeartbeatLoop.java

@@ -96,7 +96,14 @@ public final class LeadHeartbeatLoop {
         this.metrics = metrics;
     }
 
-    /** Count one nudge outcome when a registry is wired; a no-op in unit tests. */
+    /**
+     * Count one nudge outcome when a registry is wired; a no-op in unit tests.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #365: the {@code "sent"} outcome (renamed from {@code "delivered"}) records only
+     * that {@link #injectNudge} — a one-way herdr {@code agent.prompt} paste-and-submit — returned
+     * without throwing, not that the lead's pane actually read or acted on the text. This layer has
+     * no read-receipt concept, so "sent" is the honest word for what this call can ever establish.
+     */
     private void countNudge(String outcome) {
         if (metrics != null) {
             metrics.inc(FleetMetrics.HEARTBEAT_NUDGES, "outcome", outcome);
@@ -245,7 +252,7 @@ public final class LeadHeartbeatLoop {
             agents.send(leadTerminal, fleet.nudgeText());
             log.debug("idle-heartbeat: nudge sent to lead {} (quiet nudges so far in this stretch: {})",
                     leadTerminal, quietCount);
-            countNudge("delivered");
+            countNudge("sent");
         } catch (RuntimeException e) {
             log.warn("idle-heartbeat: failed to nudge lead {}: {}", leadTerminal, e.toString());
             countNudge("failed");

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/MessageService.java

@@ -138,6 +138,53 @@ public final class MessageService {
     public record AskResult(AskOutcome outcome, String answer) {
     }
 
+    /**
+     * How a worker's {@code fleet_reply} ({@link #reply(String, String)}) actually landed
+     * (fleetd #365) — the two doors that expose it, {@code fleet_reply} and {@code POST
+     * /sessions/{id}/reply}, both used to report the single word "delivered" whichever of these
+     * happened, so a caller could not tell an active handoff from a reply merely held for later
+     * drain. Both are successes; they are not the same fact.
+     */
+    public enum ReplyOutcome {
+        /** Resolved a {@code fleet_send}/{@code fleet_ask} that was actively waiting on this reply. */
+        RESOLVED_SEND("resolved_send", true,
+                "delivered — resolved the fleet_send that was waiting for it"),
+        /**
+         * No live waiter was open, but the reply completed a parked async ticket directly
+         * ({@link #askAnsweredAsyncTasks}) — a {@code fleet_poll} caller sees it immediately.
+         */
+        RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET("resolved_async_ticket", true,
+                "delivered — resolved a pending async ticket (visible to fleet_poll)"),
+        /** Nothing was waiting; the reply was queued in the inbox for a later drain (CB-307). */
+        QUEUED("queued", false,
+                "queued — no send or ticket was waiting; held in the inbox for a later drain");
+
+        private final String wireName;
+        private final boolean delivered;
+        private final String description;
+
+        ReplyOutcome(String wireName, boolean delivered, String description) {
+            this.wireName = wireName;
+            this.delivered = delivered;
+            this.description = description;
+        }
+
+        /** Stable machine-readable name for a JSON/metrics label (REST's {@code outcome} field). */
+        public String wireName() {
+            return wireName;
+        }
+
+        /** Whether something was actively waiting and received this reply right now. */
+        public boolean delivered() {
+            return delivered;
+        }
+
+        /** Shared human-readable text — the one place both {@code fleet_reply} and REST word this. */
+        public String description() {
+            return description;
+        }
+    }
+
     /** Lifecycle phase of an async delegation ticket. */
     public enum Phase {
         /** Delegated and in flight — queued for the worker or being worked. */
@@ -439,16 +486,15 @@ public final class MessageService {
      * @throws IllegalArgumentException if {@code content} is {@code null} or blank — the caller must
      *         report this as a client error (REST: 400 {@code bad_request}) rather than resolve
      *         anything
-     * @return always {@code true} — the reply resolved a live send, completed a parked ticket, or
-     *         was queued
+     * @return which of the three ways (fleetd #365) the reply actually landed — never {@code null}
      */
-    public boolean reply(String session, String content) {
+    public ReplyOutcome reply(String session, String content) {
         if (content == null || content.isBlank()) {
             throw new IllegalArgumentException("content is required");
         }
         if (rendezvous.resolve(session, content)) {
             count(FleetMetrics.REPLIES, "path", "rendezvous");
-            return true;                       // a live send took it — unchanged fast path
+            return ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND; // a live send took it — unchanged fast path
         }
         // #137/fleetd #307: no live rendezvous waiter, but this may be the worker's real fleet_reply resuming
         // a turn that either answer() (#137) or ask() (fleetd #307) already gave up waiting on:
@@ -480,7 +526,7 @@ public final class MessageService {
                     asyncTasksByTurn.remove(turnId, orphan);
                 }
                 count(FleetMetrics.REPLIES, "path", "async-recovered");
-                return true;                   // the ticket itself took it — no inbox stranding at all
+                return ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET; // the ticket itself took it — no inbox stranding
             }
         } else if (candidates.size() > 1) {
             List<String> tickets = candidates.stream().map(t -> t.ticket).toList();
@@ -498,7 +544,7 @@ public final class MessageService {
         if (pushLoop != null) {
             pushLoop.onReplyQueued(session);
         }
-        return true;                           // held, not lost
+        return ReplyOutcome.QUEUED;             // held, not lost — but not delivered either
     }
 
     /**

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyPushLoop.java

@@ -132,7 +132,15 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         this.metrics = metrics;
     }
 
-    /** Count one nudge outcome when a registry is wired; a no-op in unit tests. */
+    /**
+     * Count one nudge outcome when a registry is wired; a no-op in unit tests.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #365: the {@code "sent"} outcome (renamed from {@code "delivered"}) records only
+     * that {@code agents.send} — a one-way herdr {@code agent.prompt} paste-and-submit — returned
+     * without throwing. Nothing in this loop, or anywhere downstream of it, confirms the pane
+     * actually read or acted on the text; there is no read-receipt concept at this layer. "Sent"
+     * says exactly that; "delivered" claimed more than this call can ever establish.
+     */
     private void countNudge(String outcome) {
         if (metrics != null) {
             metrics.inc(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", outcome);
@@ -730,7 +738,7 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
                     lead, replyReminderCount + 1, maxReminders, ticketReminderCount + 1, maxReminders,
                     questionReminderCount + 1, maxReminders,
                     replyTargets.size(), tickets.size(), questions.size());
-            countNudge("delivered");
+            countNudge("sent");
             for (PendingIncident incident : incidents) {
                 if (pendingIncidents.remove(incident.key(), incident)) {
                     deliveredIncidents.add(incident.key());

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/rest/FleetApp.java

@@ -696,6 +696,10 @@ public final class FleetApp {
     /**
      * The worker's structured reply ({@code fleet_reply}) — resolves the blocking send awaiting
      * on this session, or queues the reply in the inbox when no send is open (CB-307).
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #365: the response body's {@code delivered} field used to be unconditionally
+     * {@code true} for either case; it now reports whether a send/ticket was actually resolved,
+     * with {@code outcome} naming which (see {@link MessageService.ReplyOutcome}).
      */
     private void replyMessage(Context ctx) {
         String id = ctx.pathParam("id");
@@ -719,13 +723,19 @@ public final class FleetApp {
         // a WRONG value instead of failing loudly. The check lives in MessageService.reply so both
         // this door and FleetMcp.reply inherit the same rule; this catch only translates it into the
         // {error, detail} envelope this file uses everywhere else.
+        MessageService.ReplyOutcome outcome;
         try {
-            messages.reply(id, content);
+            outcome = messages.reply(id, content);
         } catch (IllegalArgumentException e) {
             ctx.status(400).json(Map.of("error", "bad_request", "detail", e.getMessage()));
             return;
         }
-        ctx.status(200).json(Map.of("sessionId", id, "delivered", true));
+        // fleetd #365: "delivered": true used to be unconditional here, whether the reply resolved
+        // a waiting send or was merely queued in the inbox for a later drain — the same gap
+        // FleetMcp.reply had over MCP. `delivered` now reflects which actually happened, and
+        // `outcome` names the specific case (see MessageService.ReplyOutcome).
+        ctx.status(200).json(Map.of("sessionId", id, "delivered", outcome.delivered(),
+                "outcome", outcome.wireName()));
     }
 
     /**

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcpTest.java

@@ -108,8 +108,10 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         }
         assertTrue(rendezvous.isWaiting("term_a"), "send should have opened its waiter");
 
+        // fleetd #365: a resolved live send must read distinctly from a merely-queued reply —
+        // see replyWithNoPendingSendIsQueuedNotError below for the other case.
         McpSchema.CallToolResult reply = FleetMcp.reply(messages, "term_a", "LGTM");
-        assertEquals("delivered", textOf(reply));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND.description(), textOf(reply));
 
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = send.get(6, TimeUnit.SECONDS);
         assertNotEquals(Boolean.TRUE, res.isError());
@@ -135,7 +137,7 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertTrue(rendezvous.isWaiting("term_a"), "send should have opened its waiter");
 
         McpSchema.CallToolResult reply = FleetMcp.reply(messages, "term_a", "async LGTM");
-        assertEquals("delivered", textOf(reply));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND.description(), textOf(reply));
 
         // Poll until the async send completes and reports the reply.
         McpSchema.CallToolResult polled = FleetMcp.poll(messages, ticket, null);
@@ -328,9 +330,10 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
     @Test
     void replyWithNoPendingSendIsQueuedNotError() {
         // CB-307: a reply with no open send is now queued in the inbox, not an error.
+        // fleetd #365: it must also no longer claim "delivered" — nothing was waiting for it.
         McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.reply(messages, "term_a", "orphan");
         assertNotEquals(Boolean.TRUE, res.isError(), "a queued reply is not an error");
-        assertEquals("delivered", textOf(res));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.QUEUED.description(), textOf(res));
 
         // The reply is drainable by target.
         var drained = messages.drainReplies("term_a");
@@ -413,7 +416,7 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         }
         assertTrue(rendezvous.isWaiting("term_a"), "the answer should have reopened a waiter");
         McpSchema.CallToolResult reply = FleetMcp.reply(messages, "term_a", "done");
-        assertEquals("delivered", textOf(reply));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND.description(), textOf(reply));
         assertEquals("done", textOf(answer.get(6, TimeUnit.SECONDS)));
     }
 

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/MessageServiceTest.java

@@ -479,7 +479,8 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
 
             // The worker resumes on its own (per the ask() contract) and eventually sends its real
             // fleet_reply; the async ticket must still resolve with it, not strand at PENDING.
-            assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "real result"), "the worker's real reply must still be accepted");
+            assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET, messages.reply(T, "real result"),
+                    "the worker's real reply must still be accepted, resolving the parked async ticket");
         } finally {
             messages.setAskTimeoutRaceHookForTest(null);
         }
@@ -767,7 +768,9 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
     @Test
     void replyQueuesInInboxWhenNoSendIsOpen() {
         // No send is open for this session — reply should queue in the inbox.
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "queued-text"), "reply should succeed (queued)");
+        // fleetd #365: this is the case that must read as QUEUED, not "delivered".
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.QUEUED, messages.reply(T, "queued-text"),
+                "reply should succeed but only as queued — nothing was waiting for it");
 
         var drained = messages.drainReplies(T);
         assertEquals(1, drained.size());
@@ -780,7 +783,9 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         awaitUninterruptibly(T);
 
         // An explicit reply resolves the open send.
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "send-resolved"), "reply should succeed (resolved live send)");
+        // fleetd #365: this is the other case — RESOLVED_SEND, distinct from QUEUED above.
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND, messages.reply(T, "send-resolved"),
+                "reply should succeed by resolving the live waiting send");
 
         // The inbox should be empty — the reply went to the send, not the inbox.
         assertTrue(messages.drainReplies(T).isEmpty(), "no reply in the inbox");
@@ -1094,8 +1099,11 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         assertEquals(MessageService.Outcome.TIMED_OUT_WORKING, answerReply.outcome(),
                 "the primary's own bounded wait gives up before the worker finishes resuming");
 
-        // The worker keeps working past that window and only now calls fleet_reply.
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
+        // The worker keeps working past that window and only now calls fleet_reply. The forward
+        // waiter answer() opened already timed out, so this resolves via the parked async ticket,
+        // not a live send (fleetd #365).
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET,
+                messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
 
         MessageService.TaskView done = awaitTicketPhase(ticket, MessageService.Phase.DONE);
         assertEquals("PR opened: https://example/pulls/42", done.reply(),
@@ -1119,7 +1127,10 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         assertEquals("config.yaml", ask.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS).answer());
         assertEquals(MessageService.Outcome.TIMED_OUT_WORKING, answerReply.outcome());
 
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
+        // No live waiter (answer()'s own forward wait already timed out) — resolves the parked
+        // async ticket instead (fleetd #365).
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET,
+                messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
 
         // fleet_stop tears the worker's session down right after the reply landed — this must never
         // report the misleading "the worker session was released before it replied": a reply is
@@ -1170,7 +1181,9 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         assertEquals("config.yaml", ask.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS).answer());
         awaitWaiting(); // answer() opened its own forward waiter for the resumed worker turn
 
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
+        // A live waiter is open (the forward wait above) — this resolves it directly (fleetd #365).
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND,
+                messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
 
         assertEquals(MessageService.Outcome.REPLIED, answer.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS).outcome(),
                 "the lead's own answer() call must not throw because ask()'s timeout cleanup raced it");
@@ -1221,8 +1234,9 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
 
         // The worker keeps working past the timeout and only now calls fleet_reply — with no live
         // rendezvous waiter open (ask()'s timeout already closed it) and no new send() having
-        // reopened one for this target.
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
+        // reopened one for this target. So it resolves the parked async ticket (fleetd #365).
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET,
+                messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
 
         MessageService.TaskView done = awaitTicketPhase(ticket, MessageService.Phase.DONE);
         assertEquals("PR opened: https://example/pulls/42", done.reply(),
@@ -1279,7 +1293,10 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         // real reply — reproduce that interleaving directly instead of trying to win a real race.
         messages.forgetTurnForTest(turnId);
 
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
+        // answer() is still waiting on its own forward waiter for the resumed turn — a live send —
+        // so this resolves it directly, not the async ticket (fleetd #365).
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND,
+                messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
 
         assertEquals(MessageService.Outcome.REPLIED, answer.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS).outcome(),
                 "the primary's own answer() call must still see the worker's real reply");
@@ -1321,7 +1338,9 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
 
         messages.setReplyOrphanTurnIdRaceHookForTest(() -> messages.forgetTurnForTest(turnId));
         try {
-            assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
+            // No live waiter — resolves the parked async ticket (fleetd #365).
+            assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_ASYNC_TICKET,
+                    messages.reply(T, "PR opened: https://example/pulls/42"));
 
             MessageService.TaskView done = awaitTicketPhase(ticket, MessageService.Phase.DONE);
             assertEquals("PR opened: https://example/pulls/42", done.reply(),
@@ -1353,7 +1372,8 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         injectDelivery();
         assertEquals(MessageService.AskOutcome.TIMED_OUT, messages.ask(T, "Q2?", 200).outcome());
 
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "which task does this answer?"));
+        // Ambiguous — two candidates, so it must fall back to the inbox rather than guess (fleetd #365).
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.QUEUED, messages.reply(T, "which task does this answer?"));
 
         assertEquals(MessageService.Phase.PENDING, messages.poll(ticket1).phase(),
                 "an ambiguous reply must not guess ticket1");
@@ -2032,7 +2052,7 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> send = sendAsync();
         awaitWaiting();
 
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "resolved-live"));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.RESOLVED_SEND, messages.reply(T, "resolved-live"));
         assertFalse(messages.hasStrandedReply(T), "a reply that resolved an open send is not stranded");
 
         MessageService.Reply r = send.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS);
@@ -2042,14 +2062,14 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
     @Test
     void hasStrandedReplyIsTrueWhenNoSendWasWaiting() {
         // No send is open for T — the reply queues into the inbox and is recorded as stranded.
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "nobody was waiting"));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.QUEUED, messages.reply(T, "nobody was waiting"));
         assertTrue(messages.hasStrandedReply(T),
                 "a reply with no open send strands, even though it is safely queued in the inbox");
     }
 
     @Test
     void hasStrandedReplyClearsOnceTheTargetsNextDeliveryIsAccepted() throws Exception {
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "stray"));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.QUEUED, messages.reply(T, "stray"));
         assertTrue(messages.hasStrandedReply(T));
 
         // The next accepted delivery for T clears the stale stranding fact — the one case the
@@ -2067,7 +2087,7 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
 
     @Test
     void hasStrandedReplyClearsOnAbandon() {
-        assertTrue(messages.reply(T, "stray"));
+        assertEquals(MessageService.ReplyOutcome.QUEUED, messages.reply(T, "stray"));
         assertTrue(messages.hasStrandedReply(T));
 
         messages.abandon(T, "session released");

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyPushLoopTest.java

@@ -984,7 +984,7 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
     // --- metrics (CB-512) ----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
     @Test
-    void successfulNudgeIncrementsDelivered() throws Exception {
+    void successfulNudgeIncrementsSent() throws Exception {
         var rec = recordingClient();
         agents = new AgentControl(rec);
         inbox.publish(WORKER, "m1", "hello");
@@ -994,11 +994,13 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
 
         assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS),
                 "one nudge (1 agent.prompt call) should have been sent");
-        // The delivered count is bumped on the scheduler thread right after the send that releases
+        // The sent count is bumped on the scheduler thread right after the send that releases
         // the latch — settle briefly so the counter is published before we read it.
         Thread.sleep(200);
-        assertEquals(1, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "delivered"),
-                "a successfully sent nudge must count as delivered");
+        // fleetd #365: "sent", not "delivered" — this only proves the herdr call succeeded, not
+        // that the primary's pane read it.
+        assertEquals(1, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "sent"),
+                "a successfully sent nudge must count as sent");
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -1013,11 +1015,11 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
 
         assertEquals(1, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "exhausted"),
                 "hitting the reminder cap must count as exhausted");
-        assertEquals(0, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "delivered"));
+        assertEquals(0, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "sent"));
     }
 
     @Test
-    void successfulTicketNudgeIncrementsDelivered() throws Exception {
+    void successfulTicketNudgeIncrementsSent() throws Exception {
         var rec = recordingClient();
         agents = new AgentControl(rec);
         Metrics metrics = new Metrics();
@@ -1026,8 +1028,8 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
 
         assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS), "one ticket nudge should have been sent");
         Thread.sleep(200);
-        assertEquals(1, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "delivered"),
-                "a successfully sent ticket nudge must count as delivered, same metric as CB-307");
+        assertEquals(1, metrics.count(FleetMetrics.PUSH_NUDGES, "outcome", "sent"),
+                "a successfully sent ticket nudge must count as sent, same metric as CB-307");
     }
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/rest/FleetAppTest.java

@@ -476,6 +476,11 @@ class FleetAppTest {
         Thread.sleep(200);
         HttpResponse<String> reply = postJson(port, "/sessions/term_a/reply", "{\"content\":\"LGTM ship it\"}");
         assertEquals(200, reply.statusCode());
+        // fleetd #365: "delivered" used to be unconditionally true; a live send was actually waiting
+        // here, so this is the case where it must genuinely read true, with outcome naming why.
+        JsonNode replyBody = mapper.readTree(reply.body());
+        assertEquals(true, replyBody.get("delivered").asBoolean());
+        assertEquals("resolved_send", replyBody.get("outcome").asText());
 
         HttpResponse<String> res = send.get(6, java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit.SECONDS);
         assertEquals(200, res.statusCode());
@@ -527,6 +532,11 @@ class FleetAppTest {
         int port = startHealthy();
         HttpResponse<String> res = postJson(port, "/sessions/term_a/reply", "{\"content\":\"orphan\"}");
         assertEquals(200, res.statusCode());
+        // fleetd #365: nothing was waiting, so "delivered" must now read false, not the old
+        // unconditional true — outcome names this as queued.
+        JsonNode resBody = mapper.readTree(res.body());
+        assertEquals(false, resBody.get("delivered").asBoolean());
+        assertEquals("queued", resBody.get("outcome").asText());
 
         // The queued reply is drainable.
         HttpResponse<String> drain = req(port, "GET", "/sessions/term_a/replies");