fleetd #257: free must stop subtracting leadSeatCount

fleet_list's free row subtracted leadSeatCount, but the real spawn gate
(CompositePeerLauncher#enforceMaxLoad) only ever compares live against
maxLoad and never reads leadSeatCount. So free could report 0 while a
fleet_spawn on that exact profile still succeeded, and a lead trusting
free:0 gave up on capacity the gate would still grant.

free now always equals max(0, maxLoad - live); leadSeats stays in the
row as an informational fact, never subtracted. Documented in the
fleet_list tool description and fleetd.example.yaml.

CLAUDE.md

@@ -188,6 +188,18 @@ must obey belongs in the charter, not here.
 - **This repo is the bridge.** The daemon is `fleetd`, its MCP mount is `http://127.0.0.1:8765/mcp`,
   and the code behind the rules above is `mcp/FleetMcp` (tools), `auth/Authz` (the role table),
   `mcp/ConnectionIdentity` (connection→role), and `worker/*Launcher` (`REPLY_CHARTER`).
+- **`fleet_profiles`/`fleet_list` report two separate outage states, and they are not the same
+  thing.** *Quarantined* (CB-578) means the backend told us it is out of capacity — a long,
+  1800s-default cooldown. *Cooling off* (fleetd #201/#227) means a profile's credential threw two
+  distinct backend errors (a non-exhaustion failure such as an HTTP 5xx) within 60 seconds — a
+  short, fixed 60s cooldown, not configurable per profile. Each check runs independently, so a
+  profile can show both at once. In the JSON: a cooling profile carries `credentialId` and
+  `coolingOffForSeconds`; a quarantined profile carries `quarantinedForSeconds`; a profile hit by
+  both carries all three fields, and either state alone already sets that profile's `free` to `0`.
+  A `fleet_spawn` naming a cooling-off profile is refused before it ever reaches the backend
+  adapter, with a message naming the credential and the remaining seconds ("cooling off after
+  repeated backend errors") — distinct wording from a quarantine refusal, so don't conflate the
+  two when reading a spawn failure.
 - **Skills available to delegate:** `implementer` (worktree → commit → push → own PR) and
   `reviewer` (scoped review → one structured finding). Name one in every delegation.
 - **Primary-side skills** (not delegation playbooks — a worker cannot use them):
@@ -195,11 +207,22 @@ must obey belongs in the charter, not here.
   `fleets-status` (report every fleet that shares one LavinMQ instance).
 - **Never commit** `.mcp.json` (the primary's local copy, flagged `--skip-worktree`) or `wiki/`
   (a submodule with its own remote).
-- **Flows and the error model** — rendezvous, `fleet_ask`, detached delivery, turn-done fallback —
-  are diagrammed in `docs/MCP-Contract.md` **§6 only**. The rest of that page is a pre-build design
-  doc whose tool names, parameter names and REST paths never caught up with the code, so do not use
-  it as the tool reference (CB-609). Section 6 is kept out of this file because this file loads into
-  every session's context.
+- **A provisioned worktree neutralizes `.mcp.json`, `opencode.json` and `.autoenv`** — the repo's
+  committed copies would otherwise mount the primary's IDE and forge servers (fleetd #134). The
+  worktree's copy of each is a stub, **not** the repo's real file, so a worker that reads one and
+  reports what it found is reporting on the stub. The daemon logs a per-spawn summary, but the
+  worker cannot see that log. From inside its own worktree a worker — or a lead debugging one —
+  reads the list with `git config --worktree --get-all fleet.neutralizedConfig`, and the
+  consequence with `git config --worktree --get fleet.neutralizedConfigNote`. Never brief a worker
+  to edit one of these files: the edit cannot be committed, and it will not tell you so.
+- **Flows and the error model** — rendezvous, `fleet_ask`, detached delivery, the turn-done
+  fallback and status gating — are diagrammed in `docs/MCP-Contract.md`. That page is now flows
+  only: its pre-build tool catalogue, parameter tables and REST paths were deleted rather than
+  corrected, because a hand-maintained second copy of the tool surface is what drifted for a month
+  while this line pointed every session at it (CB-609 / #114). **The live MCP schema is the tool
+  reference**, with the intent→tool table above as the short form. `McpContractDocTest` fails if
+  that page names a `fleet_*` tool the server does not register. The flows are kept out of this
+  file because this file loads into every session's context.
 
 ### Redeploying the daemon — the lead may do this (primary only)
 

docs/CB-201-227-Refinement.md

@@ -0,0 +1,531 @@
+# CB-201 and CB-227 refinement
+
+Date: 2026-09-03
+
+## Decision
+
+#201 and #227 are one delivery program, but they are not one implementation unit.
+
+#201 has a real seam: `CompletionResolver` can publish a typed backend-error event only after its
+waiter resolution wins. #227 can consume that event without knowing any pane text. The classifier
+must land before the final #227 wiring. However, the policy engine, roster state, and lead nudge can
+be built in parallel with the classifier.
+
+I propose five units. Units 1 to 4 own separate files and can run in parallel. Unit 5 owns all
+composition files and lands after them. It also depends on the #234 defect 2 fix named in the task.
+
+```mermaid
+flowchart LR
+    U1["Unit 1: typed backend-error classification"] --> U5["Unit 5: wire policy, spawn gate, and fleet views"]
+    U2["Unit 2: credential outage policy"] --> U5
+    U3["Unit 3: lead outage nudge"] --> U5
+    U4["Unit 4: durable member outcome"] --> U5
+    D234["#234 defect 2: fail-loud target resolution"] --> U5
+```
+
+*Figure 1. Four file-disjoint foundations feed one composition unit.*
+
+This split keeps `Fleetd.java` under one owner. It also keeps every other production file under one
+unit in this plan.
+
+## Evidence checked in the current branch
+
+I read both issue pages in full. Each page reports zero comments.
+
+| Evidence | What the code says now |
+|---|---|
+| `inject/CompletionResolver.java:229-237` | A turn below two seconds fails before normal scrape classification. A matching fast backend error is therefore only a generic failure today. |
+| `inject/CompletionResolver.java:260-276` and `:332-367` | #211 already added raw-screen classification when `lastAssistantBlock` is empty. The “dead-code question” in #201 is stale on this branch. |
+| `inject/CompletionResolver.java:288-317` | Exhaustion wins before the hard-coded `API Error:` match. A backend error then goes through generic `fail(...)`. |
+| `inject/CompletionResolver.java:311-316` | The code admits that the pattern is a heuristic. A member report which quotes an API error may match it. |
+| `inject/CompletionResolver.java:449-467` | Startup coverage exists only for `exhaustedPattern`. |
+| `inject/ExhaustedPatternLookup.java:13-25` | The current lookup and explicit `none()` value are a good shape for the new classifier seam. |
+| `Fleetd.java:196-207` | One `BackendQuarantine` is shared by placement and the exhaustion sink. Its cooldown comes from `quarantineCooldownSeconds`. |
+| `Fleetd.java:322-363` | Pattern compilation, target-to-profile lookup, and the live `ExhaustionSink` are composed in `Fleetd.main`. The sink on this branch still ends in `.ifPresent(...)`. This plan assumes #234 replaces that silent path. |
+| `placement/BackendQuarantine.java:60-87` | A repeated exhaustion restarts one long quarantine. The store is credential-keyed and uses an injected monotonic clock. |
+| `member/CompositePeerLauncher.java:260-317` | Explicit and policy-selected spawns have separate gates. Both paths must learn about outage cool-off. |
+| `member/CompositePeerLauncher.java:347-379` | Exhaustion refusal already checks a credential for explicit spawns and filters policy candidates. Its error text says “exhausted”. |
+| `placement/PlacementContext.java:10-22` and `PlacementPolicyUtil.java:14-83` | Automatic placement has only one transient exclusion set named `quarantined`. Reusing it would make outage errors say “backend exhausted”. |
+| `mcp/FleetMcp.java:913-1025` | `fleet_list` sets `free: 0` and adds `credentialId` plus `quarantinedForSeconds` when quarantine is active. |
+| `session/MemberSession.java:51-59` | The roster has `DONE` and generic `FAILED`, but no backend-error state or stored reason. |
+| `session/SessionManager.java:695-773` | A normal boundary moves `BUSY` to `DONE`. A failure moves any non-released session to `FAILED`. The async completion resolver can race the `DONE` update. |
+| `session/SessionManager.java:648-687` | `rosterView` reports the session state, but it reports no terminal reason. |
+| `msg/MessageService.java:922-940` | CB-588 already nudges for every terminal async ticket, including failures. Current code would report failed tickets, but it would not report one correlated outage. |
+| `msg/ReplyPushLoop.java:20-48` | Replies, terminal tickets, and questions share one per-lead schedule. This prevents two push sources from injecting competing turns. |
+| `msg/ReplyPushLoop.java:305-395` | Each push entry point resolves the owning lead through `PrimaryRegistry`. Missing ownership is logged and the durable or pending item remains the backstop. |
+| `msg/ReplyPushLoop.java:496-547` | One tick builds one combined nudge. Pending items have separate reminder counts. |
+| `health/FleetHealthMonitor.java:91-143` | Health is a slow periodic observer of members and message-layer facts. It does not receive completion classifications. |
+| `health/FleetHealthMonitor.java:206-208` | `healthCoverage` means health enabled plus webhook configured. It does not describe lead-pane alerts. |
+| `Fleetd.java:465-486` | Health stays `detection-only` without the webhook notification setting. |
+
+I also read the related unit tests for `CompletionResolver`, `ReplyPushLoop`, `BackendQuarantine`,
+`CompositePeerLauncher`, `PlacementPolicyUtil`, `SessionManager`, `MessageService`, and `FleetMcp`.
+
+I did not inspect the in-progress #234 branch. I only used the two measured facts in the task. No
+peer architect was named, so I did not exchange a design with one.
+
+## Required behaviour
+
+The policy should use these first values:
+
+- Threshold: **2** classified backend errors.
+- Window: **60 seconds**, measured from the first error to the second.
+- Cool-off: **60 seconds**, starting when the threshold is reached.
+- Correlation key: `credentialId`, never profile name and never error text.
+- Incident rule: one active incident per credential. Errors during its cool-off do not extend it and
+  do not create more lead notices.
+- Rearm rule: after cool-off ends, two fresh errors are needed for another incident.
+
+Two errors are the smallest threshold which protects the honest one-turn failure. A 60-second window
+fits the measured two-member outage. A 60-second cool-off blocks immediate repeat spawns without
+turning a short backend fault into the default 1,800-second exhaustion quarantine.
+
+A single classified error still fails its send and marks its member `backend_error`. It does not
+cool a credential and does not send an outage notice. This is what “a single error changes nothing”
+must mean at the credential level. It cannot mean that the failed member still looks successful.
+
+```mermaid
+sequenceDiagram
+    participant R1 as Resolver for member A
+    participant R2 as Resolver for member B
+    participant P as Outage policy
+    participant S as Spawn gate
+    participant N as Lead push loop
+    participant L as Lead pane
+
+    R1->>P: backend error for credential C
+    Note over P: Count 1, no cool-off
+    R2->>P: backend error for credential C within 60s
+    P->>P: Start one 60s incident
+    P->>S: Credential C is cooling off
+    P->>N: Queue one incident notice
+    N->>L: Inject when lead is idle, blocked, or done
+    L->>S: Request another spawn on credential C
+    S-->>L: Refuse and report remaining cool-off
+```
+
+*Figure 2. The second independent classification creates the fleet-level event.*
+
+Against the 2026-09-01 case, the second failed member would start cool-off. `fleet_list` would show
+zero free capacity and both members as `backend_error`. The push loop would inject one outage notice
+even if the lead had not polled either ticket yet. The design reports the outage. It does not recover
+uncommitted work from the members.
+
+## Unit 1 — Typed backend-error classification
+
+### Scope
+
+Replace the direct hard-coded check inside `CompletionResolver` with a lookup and a sink. Keep the
+public send result as a failed send. The typed internal event is the seam #227 consumes.
+
+The lookup returns the pattern for a target. The sink receives the target, matched line, and full
+failure reason. It fires only after `Rendezvous.resolveFailure(...)` wins for that exact captured
+waiter. This copies the race rule already used by `ExhaustionSink`.
+
+The classifier must run in all three current paths:
+
+1. a normal non-empty assistant block;
+2. the #211 raw scrape fallback;
+3. a turn inside `MIN_TURN_NANOS`, before it becomes a generic too-fast failure.
+
+In every path, the order stays: stale-baseline guard, exhaustion, backend error, then generic
+failure or completion. A fast turn still fails when no configured pattern matches.
+
+Keep `(?i)\bAPI Error\s*:` as a compatibility pattern for profiles without `errorPattern` until the
+operator config is updated. Do not call this full coverage. Startup reporting in Unit 5 must name
+profiles using this weaker legacy default.
+
+### Files owned
+
+- Add `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/BackendErrorPatternLookup.java`.
+- Add `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/BackendErrorSink.java`.
+- Change `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/CompletionResolver.java`.
+- Change `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/CompletionResolverTest.java`.
+
+No other unit may edit these files.
+
+### Acceptance criteria
+
+1. A target-specific error pattern matches a normal assistant block and resolves the send as failed.
+2. The same match calls `BackendErrorSink` exactly once after the waiter resolution wins.
+3. A late classification which loses to `fleet_reply` does not call the sink.
+4. An exhausted line that also matches the generic error pattern stays `BACKEND_EXHAUSTED`. It calls
+   only `ExhaustionSink`.
+5. A raw pane with leading Terminal User Interface (TUI) chrome and no assistant marker still uses
+   the #211 fallback and calls the backend-error sink.
+6. A matching error inside the two-second floor is typed and sent to the sink. A non-matching fast
+   turn stays a generic failure.
+7. An unchanged delivery baseline which contains old backend-error text is suppressed. It never
+   increments outage evidence.
+8. A non-match keeps the existing completion result and text.
+9. Constructors used by current callers keep compiling. They use the legacy default lookup and an
+   explicit inert sink until Unit 5 supplies the production objects.
+10. Unit tests pass. The developer runs the focused test first, then `mvn clean install` from
+    `fleetd/`.
+
+### Dependencies
+
+None. Unit 1 can run with Units 2, 3, and 4.
+
+Unit 5 depends on its new lookup, sink, and constructor.
+
+### What to report back
+
+- The exact classifier order in all three paths.
+- The focused test command and result.
+- The test which proves a losing waiter race does not publish an event.
+- The test which proves a fast matching failure is typed.
+- The final `mvn clean install` result.
+- Any constructor kept only for transition and where Unit 5 replaces it.
+
+## Unit 2 — Credential outage policy
+
+### Scope
+
+Build a small credential-keyed state machine. It accepts already-classified backend-error events.
+It does not read pane text, profiles, sessions, or lead state.
+
+Use an injected monotonic clock. A call records `credentialId`, target, and reason. It returns a new
+incident only on the threshold crossing. The incident contains a stable event id, credential id,
+the distinct affected targets, evidence count, window, and remaining cool-off.
+
+This class owns both correlation and short cool-off. Keeping them together makes threshold crossing
+and the cool-off deadline one atomic state change.
+
+### Files owned
+
+- Add `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/BackendOutagePolicy.java`.
+- Add `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/BackendOutagePolicyTest.java`.
+
+No other unit may edit these files.
+
+### Acceptance criteria
+
+1. One error creates no incident and no cool-off.
+2. Two errors for one credential within 60 seconds create exactly one incident and a 60-second
+   cool-off.
+3. Two errors more than 60 seconds apart do not create an incident.
+4. The exact 60-second boundary has a pinned result. Use inclusive `<= 60s` so scheduler delay does
+   not discard evidence at the boundary.
+5. Different credentials never share evidence.
+6. Different profiles which supply the same credential id do share evidence. The policy itself only
+   sees the credential id.
+7. More errors during active cool-off do not extend its deadline and do not return another incident.
+8. After expiry, old evidence is cleared. Two fresh errors are needed to create the next incident.
+9. Remaining seconds round up, matching `BackendQuarantine` reporting.
+10. Concurrent second and third errors cannot return two incidents.
+11. The focused tests and `mvn clean install` pass.
+
+### Dependencies
+
+None. Unit 2 can run with Units 1, 3, and 4.
+
+Unit 5 depends on the policy API.
+
+### What to report back
+
+- The state transition table and locking method.
+- The exact threshold, window, cool-off, and boundary rule.
+- The test which proves one incident under concurrent calls.
+- The focused test and `mvn clean install` results.
+
+## Unit 3 — Lead outage nudge
+
+### Scope
+
+Add backend incidents as a fourth pending source in `ReplyPushLoop`. Do not create another scheduler
+or call `AgentControl.send` from `Fleetd`. The existing combined per-lead schedule is the control
+which prevents competing injected turns.
+
+The entry point takes an incident id, affected worker targets, credential id, affected profile
+names, and remaining cool-off. It resolves distinct owning leads through `PrimaryRegistry`.
+
+Each `(incidentId, lead)` item is one-shot. It waits while the lead is not injectable. After one
+successful `agents.send`, remove it. A send exception keeps it pending for a bounded retry. It never
+uses the repeated reminder behaviour of an uncollected ticket.
+
+Also add a fail-loud entry point for a classified target that Unit 5 cannot map to a credential. It
+uses `PrimaryRegistry.nudgeTargetFor(target)` and says that correlation could not run. If no lead is
+known, log at `WARN`, not `DEBUG`.
+
+### Files owned
+
+- Change `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyPushLoop.java`.
+- Change `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyPushLoopTest.java`.
+
+No other unit may edit these files.
+
+### Acceptance criteria
+
+1. One incident affecting two workers owned by one lead causes one successful pane injection.
+2. Two affected workers owned by two leads cause one successful injection per affected lead. This
+   is one notice per event per lead, not one notice per member.
+3. Repeating the same incident id is idempotent.
+4. A busy or unknown lead is not injected. The item stays pending until the lead becomes injectable
+   or its attempt cap is reached.
+5. After one successful injection, later ticks do not mention that incident again.
+6. A failed `agents.send` is retried within the existing bound. A successful retry still gives only
+   one successful send.
+7. A pending ticket and an outage incident for one lead appear in one combined nudge, not two
+   competing turns.
+8. The text names the credential, profiles, affected workers, and remaining cool-off. It tells the
+   lead to run `fleet_list`.
+9. An unmapped target produces a direct warning notice when a lead is known. If no lead is known,
+   the code logs a `WARN` naming the target and reason.
+10. `stop()` clears incident state as it clears other push state.
+11. Existing reply, ticket, and question tests stay green. The focused tests and
+    `mvn clean install` pass.
+
+### Dependencies
+
+None. The API uses plain values, not the Unit 2 incident class. This lets Unit 3 run in parallel.
+
+Unit 5 adapts the Unit 2 incident into this entry point.
+
+### What to report back
+
+- The exact one-shot and retry rules.
+- The test showing one combined nudge with a failed ticket.
+- The test showing one successful send for two affected workers.
+- The focused test and `mvn clean install` results.
+
+## Unit 4 — Durable member backend-error outcome
+
+### Scope
+
+Make a classified backend failure remain visible after its ticket is collected or expires.
+
+Add `BACKEND_ERROR` to `MemberSession.State`. Add a nullable failure detail to `MemberSession` and
+render it as `failureReason` in `SessionManager.rosterView`. Add
+`SessionManager.onBackendError(target, reason)`.
+
+The transition must handle both completion orderings:
+
+- `BUSY -> BACKEND_ERROR` when classification wins before the normal completion state update;
+- `DONE -> BACKEND_ERROR` when the async resolver runs after `SessionManager.onTurnComplete`.
+
+It must use a compare-and-set retry or another atomic update. `RELEASED` must never return to the
+roster. A backend-error member is terminal and cannot accept another delivery.
+
+### Files owned
+
+- Change `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/MemberSession.java`.
+- Change `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/SessionManager.java`.
+- Change `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/SessionManagerTest.java`.
+
+No other unit may edit these files.
+
+### Acceptance criteria
+
+1. `onBackendError` moves a `BUSY` member to `BACKEND_ERROR` and stores the reason.
+2. It also moves `DONE` to `BACKEND_ERROR`, covering the resolver race.
+3. A later normal `onTurnComplete` cannot change `BACKEND_ERROR` back to `DONE`.
+4. A released or unknown member is not recreated. The unknown case logs at `WARN` and returns an
+   explicit false result to its caller.
+5. `onDelivered` refuses a `BACKEND_ERROR` member, just as it refuses generic `FAILED`.
+6. `rosterView` reports `state: backend_error` and `failureReason` after the send ticket is gone.
+7. Ordinary members do not gain a blank or invented `failureReason` field.
+8. Existing constructors keep source compatibility for tests and adapters.
+9. The focused tests and `mvn clean install` pass.
+
+### Dependencies
+
+None. Unit 4 can run with Units 1, 2, and 3.
+
+Unit 5 calls the new session method from the production sink.
+
+### What to report back
+
+- The two race orderings and the tests for both.
+- The exact roster JSON shape.
+- The unknown-target result and log level.
+- The focused test and `mvn clean install` results.
+
+## Unit 5 — Production wiring, spawn gate, and fleet views
+
+### Scope
+
+Compose Units 1 to 4 in production. This is the only unit which edits `Fleetd.java`.
+
+Add per-profile `errorPattern` config beside `exhaustedPattern`. Compile both once at startup. A
+configured pattern wins over the legacy default. Report configured profiles and legacy-default
+profiles separately at startup. A bad regex must stop startup with the profile and key in the
+message.
+
+Wire one production `BackendErrorSink` with this order:
+
+1. mark the member `backend_error` with its reason;
+2. resolve the profile and its current `effectiveCredentialId()` through the fail-loud #234 seam;
+3. record the error in `BackendOutagePolicy`;
+4. on a new incident, submit one event to `ReplyPushLoop`.
+
+If target metadata cannot be resolved, do not end in `Optional.ifPresent`. Log an error and call the
+Unit 3 unmapped-target notice. The failed send still reaches its ticket through CB-588.
+
+Teach both spawn paths about a separate cool-off source. Exhaustion quarantine has priority when
+both states are active. Automatic placement needs a distinct `coolingOff` set so its refusal does
+not say “exhausted”.
+
+Extend the MCP (Model Context Protocol) views:
+
+- A cooling profile has `free: 0`, `credentialId`, and `coolingOffForSeconds` in `fleet_list`.
+- It does not have `quarantinedForSeconds` unless exhaustion quarantine is also active.
+- `fleet_profiles` has a separate `coolingOff` map, not an entry in `quarantined`.
+- A direct spawn refusal says the credential is cooling off after repeated backend errors and gives
+  the remaining seconds.
+
+Do not change `FleetHealthMonitor.coverage`. It still describes the periodic health webhook path.
+Lead-pane outage delivery is a separate capability.
+
+### Files owned
+
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java`
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfig.java`
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRef.java`
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/CompositePeerLauncher.java`
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/PlacementContext.java`
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/PlacementPolicyUtil.java`
+- `fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java`
+- `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfigTest.java`
+- `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRefTest.java`
+- `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/CompositePeerLauncherTest.java`
+- `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/PlacementPolicyTest.java`
+- `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcpTest.java`
+- Add `fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/BackendOutageFlowTest.java`.
+- `fleetd/fleetd.example.yaml`
+- `CLAUDE.md`
+
+No earlier unit edits these files.
+
+The lead, not a worker, must update `wiki/7-Use-Cases.md`, `wiki/9-Implementation.md`, and
+`wiki/11-Features.md`. Project rules forbid workers from committing `wiki/`. The portable block in
+`CLAUDE.md` and `wiki/7-Use-Cases.md` must remain byte-identical.
+
+### Acceptance criteria
+
+1. `errorPattern` binds per profile. Blank uses the legacy default and is reported as degraded
+   coverage. A config reload which changes it is reported as deferred because patterns are compiled
+   at startup.
+2. A malformed `errorPattern` stops startup and names `profiles.<name>.errorPattern`.
+3. The real production sink never silently drops an unknown target. A test captures its error log
+   and the fallback notice call.
+4. One real backend-error classification through `CompletionResolver` marks only its member. It does
+   not cool the credential and does not send an outage notice.
+5. Two real classifications for one credential within 60 seconds start one incident.
+6. The integration test then calls the real explicit-profile spawn gate. It is refused before any
+   adapter spawn call, with “cooling off” and remaining seconds in the message.
+7. The same test calls an automatic placement path. A cooling candidate is skipped. If every
+   candidate is cooling, the error names cool-off rather than exhaustion.
+8. Profiles sharing the credential are all blocked. A profile on another credential stays usable.
+9. `fleet_list` from the same fixture shows both members as `backend_error`, preserves each failure
+   reason, and reports `free: 0`, the credential, and `coolingOffForSeconds`.
+10. `fleet_profiles` reports cool-off separately from quarantine.
+11. The real `ReplyPushLoop` receives one incident and makes one successful lead-pane send. Existing
+    failed-ticket notice content may share that same combined send.
+12. Exhaustion still wins when a line matches both patterns. A simultaneous exhaustion quarantine
+    also wins in spawn errors and fleet views.
+13. After the 60-second cool-off, spawn is allowed again. A new incident needs two fresh errors.
+14. `healthCoverage` has the same value before and after this change for the same health config.
+15. `fleetd.example.yaml` explains `errorPattern`, the legacy fallback, 2/60/60 policy, and the
+    difference between cool-off and exhaustion quarantine.
+16. `CLAUDE.md` tells leads how `fleet_profiles` and `fleet_list` report cool-off. The lead later
+    applies the matching wiki updates and runs the documented byte-sync check.
+17. The developer records the new end-to-end test failing before implementation, then passing. The
+    focused suites and `mvn clean install` pass.
+
+### Dependencies
+
+Unit 5 starts only after Units 1 to 4 are merged or rebased into its branch. It also starts after the
+#234 defect 2 fix lands, because both areas touch the same target-resolution control path.
+
+### What to report back
+
+- The exact commits used for Units 1 to 4 and #234.
+- The startup coverage line with one configured and one legacy-default profile.
+- The red test output before the implementation and its green result after.
+- The explicit and automatic spawn refusal text.
+- Sample `fleet_list` and `fleet_profiles` JSON for cool-off and exhaustion.
+- The number and text of lead-pane sends in the real-path test.
+- The focused test commands and final `mvn clean install` result.
+- The exact `CLAUDE.md` change and the wiki edits the lead must apply.
+
+## File ownership summary
+
+| Area | Unit | Shared edit risk |
+|---|---:|---|
+| Completion classification | 1 | Only Unit 1 edits `CompletionResolver` and its test. |
+| Correlation and cool-off state | 2 | New files only. |
+| Lead push scheduling | 3 | Only Unit 3 edits `ReplyPushLoop` and its test. |
+| Member terminal state | 4 | Only Unit 4 edits `MemberSession`, `SessionManager`, and their test. |
+| Main composition, config, placement, MCP views, shipped prompt | 5 | Only Unit 5 edits `Fleetd`, `FleetConfig`, `CompositePeerLauncher`, placement context, `FleetMcp`, and `CLAUDE.md`. |
+| Wiki propagation | Lead after Unit 5 | Workers do not commit the wiki submodule. |
+
+## What I would not build
+
+1. **Do not reuse `BackendQuarantine` for outages.** Its repeat call restarts a long credential
+   quarantine. Its fields and errors say “exhausted”. That is wrong for a short outage.
+2. **Do not merge the exhaustion and generic error patterns.** Exhaustion must win because it has a
+   different policy and duration.
+3. **Do not group by error string.** One outage can produce different text. The shared operational
+   limit is the credential.
+4. **Do not mark a profile unusable until config changes.** The current classifier cannot safely
+   tell a permanent malformed request from a transient service fault. A permanent state would need
+   a stronger error taxonomy first.
+5. **Do not quarantine on the first generic backend error.** That would turn one bad request or one
+   false pattern match into a fleet-wide capacity loss.
+6. **Do not add this to `FleetHealthMonitor`.** The monitor samples slow member health. The exact
+   backend event already exists at completion resolution, and moving it to polling would lose type
+   and time.
+7. **Do not add another direct lead injector.** `ReplyPushLoop` already owns status gating,
+   per-lead coalescing, retry bounds, and heartbeat stand-down.
+8. **Do not change `healthCoverage` to `full`.** That field still means a webhook notification sink
+   exists for periodic health. A backend outage nudge does not make every health event visible.
+9. **Do not persist incident history across daemon restart in this work.** Existing exhaustion
+   quarantine is also in memory. A 60-second state does not justify a new durable store.
+10. **Do not build work recovery.** The PR-body survival story proves why checkpoint-first work is
+    useful, but these tickets are about detection, capacity, and signalling.
+11. **Do not remove the legacy `API Error:` fallback in the first release.** Doing so would turn an
+    unedited config back into a false successful completion. Report it as degraded coverage instead.
+12. **Do not reorder or add the old `visibleTurn` fallback from #201.** #211 already implemented the
+    narrow raw-scrape fallback at `CompletionResolver.classifyRawScrapeFallback`.
+
+## Riskiest assumption and cheapest experiment
+
+The riskiest assumption is that a configured error regex means “the backend failed this turn”. The
+current code and test already show the counterexample: a worker may quote `API Error:` while writing
+a valid report. Two such false matches on one credential would now remove capacity for 60 seconds.
+
+The cheapest experiment is a replay corpus before Unit 5 ships:
+
+1. Save the full pane text from the measured 2026-09-01 outage.
+2. Produce one safe failure per backend with a disposable invalid endpoint or request.
+3. Save one valid member report which quotes each error line.
+4. Replay all samples through the real `CompletionResolver` test fixture.
+5. Require outage samples to match and quoted-report samples not to match after assistant-block
+   extraction and baseline checks.
+
+This costs no outage deployment and no real sleep. If quoted reports still match, narrow the profile
+patterns before enabling correlation. Do not raise the threshold to hide a bad classifier.
+
+## Sequencing with three developers
+
+First wave:
+
+1. Developer A: Unit 1, typed classification.
+2. Developer B: Unit 2, credential outage policy.
+3. Developer C: Unit 3, lead outage nudge.
+
+As soon as one slot is free, start Unit 4. It is file-disjoint from every first-wave unit. Merge and
+review Units 1 to 4 independently.
+
+Start Unit 5 only after all four foundations and #234 are available. Unit 5 is the only high-conflict
+integration branch, so no other active unit should touch its file list.
+
+## Checks performed for this refinement
+
+- Read issue #201 and issue #227 through their Gitea pages. Both showed zero comments.
+- Read the source and tests named in the evidence section.
+- Ran `git status --short --branch`; the branch was clean before this document was added.
+- Ran `git log --oneline -12` to identify the branch base.
+- I did not run Maven because this change adds only a design document.
+- Rendered both Mermaid blocks with `npx @mermaid-js/mermaid-cli`; both commands succeeded.

docs/MCP-Contract.md

@@ -1,311 +1,162 @@
-# MCP Contract — `fleetd`'s unified gateway
+# MCP flows and error model — `fleetd`
 
-> **Status: 🔴 HISTORICAL DESIGN — do NOT use as the tool reference.** Written 2026-07-14, before
-> any MCP code existed. The system shipped and this page never caught up, so **its tool names,
-> parameter names and REST paths are wrong today**. Audited 2026-08-17; the specific drift:
+> **What this page is.** The **flows**: how a delegation, a clarification, a detached task and a
+> silent member each travel through `fleetd`. These shapes are what shipped, and they are hard to
+> read off the code because they span the MCP face, the rendezvous registry, the `Injector` and
+> herdr.
 >
-> - **Tools it names that do not exist:** `fleet_read`, `fleet_cancel`.
-> - **Shipped tools it omits:** `fleet_poll`, `fleet_ack`, `fleet_profiles`, `fleet_whoami`.
-> - **Parameter names are wrong nearly everywhere** — it says `message`/`target`/`timeout_seconds`/
->   `block` where the code takes `content`/`sessionId`/`timeoutMs`/`wait`; `text` where
->   `fleet_reply` takes `content`; `target` where `fleet_stop` takes `paneId`.
-> - **REST paths are wrong:** it says `POST /workers` and `DELETE /workers/{paneId}`; the daemon
->   serves `POST /members` and `DELETE /members/{paneId}`.
+> **What this page is NOT: a tool reference.** It deliberately holds no tool catalogue, no
+> parameter tables and no REST paths. **The live MCP schema is the authority** — each tool's own
+> description and parameters, as mounted — with the intent→tool table in `CLAUDE.md` as the short
+> form.
 >
-> **The authoritative tool surface is the live MCP schema** (each tool's own description and
-> parameters, as mounted), with the intent→tool table in `CLAUDE.md` as the short form. Both were
-> checked against `mcp/FleetMcp.java` on 2026-08-17 and are accurate.
+> That absence is the fix for fleetd #114 (CB-609), and it is worth stating why. This page used to
+> carry a full tool catalogue written in July 2026, before any MCP code existed. The code shipped;
+> the page did not follow. By August it named two tools that do not exist, omitted five that do,
+> had the wrong name for nearly every parameter, pointed at REST paths the daemon does not serve,
+> and — worst — still described an identity model (*"any connection that does not map to a known
+> worker is treated as a primary"*) that was a real privilege bug, fixed since by the ancestry
+> walk in fleetd #161. Every one of those errors is the same error: **a second, hand-maintained
+> copy of something the code already states**. So the second copy is gone rather than corrected.
+> Only the flows remain, because a flow is a shape rather than a name, and shapes are what this
+> page was ever good for.
 >
-> What is still worth reading here is **§6 — the flows and the error model** (rendezvous,
-> `fleet_ask`, detached delivery, the turn-done fallback). The shapes it describes are the ones
-> that shipped; only the names around them drifted. Rewriting this page is tracked as **CB-609**.
-
-`fleetd` is the **sole communication gateway** for every Claude session in the bridge. Both
-the **primary** (Opus, on subscription) and every **worker** (off-subscription Claude Code)
-mount the *same* MCP server with a single `claude mcp add` line, and talk only through its
-tools. No Claude session ever addresses a broker, a peer, or the network directly.
-
-This document defines every MCP tool that face must expose, who may call it, its blocking
-semantics, and how it maps onto the code already in the tree.
+> The names that do appear below are checked by `McpContractDocTest`, which fails if this page
+> names a `fleet_*` tool the server does not register. That test is the whole reason it is safe to
+> write a tool name here at all.
 
 ---
 
-## 1. Design constraints (non-negotiable)
+## 1. Rendezvous flows
 
-These come from the project's core invariants and bound every decision below.
+### 1.1 Delegation — happy path
 
-1. **One server, both roles.** The primary and all workers mount an identical server. The
-   catalog must serve both, and `fleetd` must decide *who is calling* from the connection —
-   never from a caller-supplied argument that could be spoofed.
-2. **Subscription-safe by construction.** No MCP tool ever reads, sets, or forwards
-   `ANTHROPIC_BASE_URL`. Mounting the bridge cannot move a session off subscription.
-   Enforced today by [`SubscriptionGuard`](1-Architecture).
-3. **Blocking rendezvous, no busy-poll.** The primary consumes a worker's reply through a
-   *single* MCP call that `fleetd` holds open — never a cross-turn poll loop that would burn
-   subscription quota.
-4. **Status-gated delivery.** Anything that puts text into a worker flows through the existing
-   [`Injector`](1-Architecture): delivered only when the worker is `idle`/`blocked`, at most
-   one message per turn.
-5. **`fleetd` owns policy; herdr owns PTYs.** MCP tools express *intent*; `fleetd`
-   translates it into guard checks, rendezvous bookkeeping, and herdr `agent.*` calls.
-
----
-
-## 2. Topology
-
-Both faces live in the one daemon. The **north face** is MCP (this document); the **south
-face** is the herdr Unix socket. REST/SSE remains only for non-Claude clients and dashboards.
-
-```mermaid
-flowchart LR
-    OPUS["Opus — primary<br/>(Claude Code, env CLEAN)<br/>MCP client"]
-    subgraph BD["fleetd — standalone daemon"]
-        MCP["MCP server (north face)<br/>fleet_send · fleet_reply<br/>fleet_ask · fleet_status · lifecycle"]
-        RDV["rendezvous registry<br/>(blocking-call waiters)"]
-        INJ["Injector + StatusPoller<br/>(status-gated writer)"]
-        SOCK["herdr socket client (south face)"]
-        MCP --> RDV
-        RDV --> INJ
-        INJ --> SOCK
-        MCP --> SOCK
-    end
-    HERDR["herdr<br/>panes · agent-status"]
-    W["worker claude pane<br/>ANTHROPIC_BASE_URL set<br/>MCP client"]
-
-    OPUS -->|"fleet_send (blocks)"| MCP
-    W -.->|"fleet_reply / fleet_ask"| MCP
-    SOCK -->|"agent.start · agent.send<br/>agent.get · pane.close"| HERDR
-    HERDR -->|"drives PTY"| W
-
-    classDef ext fill:#2b6cb0,stroke:#1a365d,color:#ffffff;
-    classDef core fill:#2f855a,stroke:#22543d,color:#ffffff;
-    class OPUS,W ext
-    class MCP,RDV,INJ,SOCK core
-```
-
----
-
-## 3. Identity & addressing
-
-Because the same server is mounted by everyone, `fleetd` resolves the caller's role on every
-request — this is the linchpin of the whole contract and has no code yet.
-
-- **Workers are known.** `fleetd` spawns every worker
-  ([`WorkerService`](1-Architecture)) and records its herdr session UUID / `terminal_id` on
-  the returned [`Agent`]. When a call arrives on a connection that maps to a known worker,
-  the caller is *that* worker — so **workers never pass a target**; routing is implicit.
-- **The primary is "not a worker".** Any connection that does not map to a known worker is
-  treated as a primary. It addresses workers **explicitly** by `target` — a session UUID,
-  a `terminal_id`, or a friendly `profile` name.
-- **Turn correlation.** A blocking `fleet_send` registers a *waiter* keyed by worker
-  identity. A worker's later `fleet_reply` / `fleet_ask` on the same identity resolves that
-  waiter. A `turn_id` is minted per exchange so a clarification round-trip
-  (§6.2) rejoins the right turn.
-
----
-
-## 4. Transport
-
-`fleetd` is a long-lived daemon serving **multiple** concurrent clients (one primary + N
-workers), so a per-client stdio child is the wrong shape. The recommended transport is
-**streamable-HTTP / SSE** on the same bind as the REST face:
-
-```bash
-# identical on primary and every worker
-claude mcp add --transport http fleetd http://127.0.0.1:8080/mcp
-```
-
-This adds an MCP-server dependency the pom does not yet carry. See [Open decisions](#10-open-decisions).
-
----
-
-## 5. Tool catalog
-
-| Tool | Caller | Blocks? | Backing (exists today?) |
-|---|---|---|---|
-| [`fleet_send`](#fleet_send) | primary | yes (default) | `Injector.enqueue` ✅ · rendezvous registry ❌ (CB-104) |
-| [`fleet_reply`](#fleet_reply) | worker | no | rendezvous ❌ · pane injection via `Injector` ✅ |
-| [`fleet_ask`](#fleet_ask) | worker | yes | reverse rendezvous ❌ |
-| [`fleet_status`](#fleet_status) | either | no | `AgentControl.status` ✅ · `Injector.activeTargets` ✅ |
-| [`fleet_spawn`](#lifecycle) | primary | no | `WorkerService.spawn` ✅ (`POST /workers`) |
-| [`fleet_list`](#lifecycle) | either | no | `WorkerService.list` ✅ (`/agents`) |
-| [`fleet_stop`](#lifecycle) | primary | no | `WorkerService.stop` ✅ (`DELETE /workers/{paneId}`) |
-| [`fleet_read`](#fleet_read) | primary | no | `AgentControl.read` ✅ |
-| [`fleet_cancel`](#fleet_cancel) | primary | no | — ❌ (future) |
-
-### Core: delegation & rendezvous
-
-#### `fleet_send`
-*(primary → worker — the headline tool, CB-104)*
-
-- **Params:** `message` (required); `target` (optional — defaults to the sole worker / default
-  profile); `timeout_seconds` (default 600); `block` (default `true`); `auto_spawn`
-  (default `true`); `turn_id` (optional — supplied when answering a worker's `fleet_ask`).
-- **Blocking (`block:true`):** enqueue `message` via the `Injector`, then hold the call open
-  until exactly one of:
-  - worker calls `fleet_reply` → `{ outcome:"reply", text }`
-  - worker calls `fleet_ask` → `{ outcome:"question", text, turn_id }`
-  - worker's `agent_status` reaches done/idle with no reply → `{ outcome:"turn_done", text:<terminal tail> }`
-  - deadline elapses → `{ outcome:"timeout" }`
-  - worker gone → error `worker_gone`
-- **Detached (`block:false`):** enqueue and return `{ outcome:"dispatched", dispatch_id }`
-  immediately. The eventual reply is injected into the primary's idle pane (§6.3), or drained
-  via `fleet_status` on a split-host primary.
-
-#### `fleet_reply`
-*(worker → primary)*
-
-- **Params:** `text` (required); `final` (default `true`).
-- **Behavior:** resolve the primary waiter registered against this worker with `text`. If no
-  waiter exists (detached delegation), `fleetd` **injects the primary's idle pane** instead.
-  Returns `{ delivered:true, mode:"resolved"|"injected" }`. No `target` — identity is implicit.
-
-#### `fleet_ask`
-*(worker → primary — the reverse rendezvous)*
-
-- **Params:** `question` (required); `timeout_seconds`.
-- **Behavior:** blocks the *worker's* call. Surfaces the question to the primary (resolving its
-  open `fleet_send` with `outcome:"question"`, or injecting its pane). When the primary
-  answers — a `fleet_send` carrying the matching `turn_id` — that unblocks this call and
-  returns `{ answer }` to the worker, which continues **in the same turn**.
-
-### Worker lifecycle
-<a id="lifecycle"></a>
-Thin adapters over [`WorkerService`](1-Architecture) — parity with the existing REST routes.
-
-- **`fleet_spawn`** — `{ profile? }` → worker view (`sessionId`, `terminalId`, `paneId`,
-  `status`). Guard-checked; a boundary breach returns error `subscription_boundary` (the
-  REST `403`).
-- **`fleet_list`** — no params → all workers + `agent_status`. Read-only, either role.
-- **`fleet_stop`** — `{ target }` → tears down the pane and its dedicated tab. Idempotent.
-
-### Observability
-
-#### `fleet_status`
-*(either role — the README's 4th named tool)*
-
-- **Params:** `target?`.
-- **Behavior:** per-worker `agent_status`, queue depth (`Injector.activeTargets`), whether a
-  rendezvous is open, and ids. For the *calling* session it also reports/drains **pending
-  messages addressed to me** — the path a split-host primary's `Stop`-hook uses to wake and
-  collect replies without being injectable. Read-only, non-blocking.
-
-#### `fleet_read`
-*(primary)*
-
-- **Params:** `target`; `source` ∈ `visible | recent | recent_unwrapped | detection`.
-- **Behavior:** returns the worker's terminal text so the primary can peek at a *detached*
-  worker's progress. Adapter over `AgentControl.read`.
-
-### Control (future)
-
-#### `fleet_cancel`
-*(primary)*
-
-- **Params:** `target`. Interrupt the worker's current turn / abandon the rendezvous. No
-  backing code yet.
-
----
-
-## 6. Rendezvous flows
-
-### 6.1 Delegation — happy path
-
-One blocking call, zero polls.
+One blocking call, zero polls. The lead's call is held open by `fleetd` until the member answers.
 
 ```mermaid
 sequenceDiagram
-    participant P as Primary (Opus)
-    participant B as fleetd (MCP + Injector)
+    participant P as "Lead (primary)"
+    participant B as "fleetd (MCP + Injector)"
     participant H as herdr
-    participant W as Worker (Claude)
+    participant W as "Member"
 
-    P->>B: fleet_send("do X", target=w) — blocks
-    B->>B: register waiter(w)
-    B->>H: agent.send(w, "do X")  (idle window)
-    H-->>W: prompt injected
-    W->>W: works the turn
-    W->>B: fleet_reply("result")
-    B->>B: resolve waiter(w)
-    B-->>P: { outcome:"reply", text:"result" }
+    P->>B: "fleet_send{sessionId, content} — blocks"
+    B->>B: "register waiter(sessionId)"
+    B->>H: "agent.send — only in an injectable window"
+    H-->>W: "prompt injected"
+    W->>W: "works the turn"
+    W->>B: "fleet_reply{content}"
+    B->>B: "resolve waiter"
+    B-->>P: "{ outcome: reply }"
 ```
 
-### 6.2 Clarification — reverse rendezvous (`fleet_ask`)
+**The cap that matters:** a blocking `fleet_send` is bounded by the *caller's own* MCP client
+timeout, about 60 seconds — not by the task. Anything slower than that must use the detached flow
+in §1.3, or the lead's call returns while the member is still working.
 
-The worker pauses mid-turn to ask; the primary answers; the worker resumes in the same turn.
+### 1.2 Clarification — reverse rendezvous
+
+The member pauses mid-turn to ask, the lead answers, and the member resumes **the same turn** with
+its context intact.
 
 ```mermaid
 sequenceDiagram
-    participant P as Primary
+    participant P as "Lead"
     participant B as fleetd
-    participant W as Worker
+    participant W as "Member"
 
-    P->>B: fleet_send("do X", target=w) — blocks
-    B-->>W: "do X" (injected)
-    W->>B: fleet_ask("which config?") — worker blocks
-    B-->>P: { outcome:"question", text:"which config?", turn_id }
-    P->>B: fleet_send("config.yaml", target=w, turn_id) — blocks again
-    B-->>W: resolve fleet_ask → { answer:"config.yaml" }
-    W->>W: resumes same turn
-    W->>B: fleet_reply("done")
-    B-->>P: { outcome:"reply", text:"done" }
+    P->>B: "fleet_send{sessionId, content} — blocks"
+    B-->>W: "content injected"
+    W->>B: "fleet_ask{question} — member blocks"
+    B-->>P: "{ outcome: question, turnId }"
+    P->>B: "fleet_send{turnId, content} — answers THIS turn"
+    B-->>W: "fleet_ask returns the answer"
+    W->>W: "resumes the same turn"
+    W->>B: "fleet_reply{content}"
+    B-->>P: "{ outcome: reply }"
 ```
 
-### 6.3 Detached delegation — pane injection
+**Answer with `turnId`, never `sessionId`.** A `sessionId` send starts a new turn; it does not
+resolve the waiting `fleet_ask`.
 
-The primary does not block; the reply arrives later in its idle pane.
+**The window is about 55 seconds and no nudge extends it.** So never brief a member to "ask me":
+decide before delegating, or give the member an explicit default to fall back on.
+
+### 1.3 Detached delegation — the lead does not block
+
+The lead gets a ticket immediately and collects the answer later. This is the flow for any real
+task, because of the ~60s cap in §1.1.
 
 ```mermaid
 sequenceDiagram
-    participant P as Primary
+    participant P as "Lead"
     participant B as fleetd
-    participant W as Worker
+    participant W as "Member"
 
-    P->>B: fleet_send("do X", target=w, block=false)
-    B-->>P: { outcome:"dispatched", dispatch_id }
-    P->>P: continues its own work
-    W->>B: fleet_reply("result")
-    Note over B: no waiter → detached path
-    B->>B: Injector.enqueue(primary_pane, "result")
-    B-->>P: injected into idle pane (status-gated)
+    P->>B: "fleet_send{sessionId, content, wait:false}"
+    B-->>P: "accepted — ticket"
+    P->>P: "continues its own work"
+    W->>B: "fleet_reply{content}"
+    Note over B: "no waiter is blocked — the reply is held"
+    B->>B: "nudge the lead's own pane (status-gated)"
+    P->>B: "fleet_poll{ticket}"
+    B-->>P: "the member's report"
+    P->>B: "fleet_ack{target, msgId}"
 ```
 
-### 6.4 Uncooperative worker — turn-done fallback
+A terminal ticket nudges the lead's pane by itself, so a detached task does not need watching. The
+nudge needs an injectable lead pane and is capped, so it is a convenience rather than a guarantee.
 
-A worker that never calls `fleet_reply` still returns a result: `fleetd` reads its terminal
-tail when the turn completes.
+### 1.4 The member never replies — turn-done fallback
+
+A member that ends its turn without `fleet_reply` still produces something: `fleetd` reads its
+pane tail. This is a **fallback, not a channel** — it is lossy in three separate ways, and every
+one of them has produced a wrong answer in practice.
 
 ```mermaid
 sequenceDiagram
-    participant P as Primary
+    participant P as "Lead"
     participant B as fleetd
-    participant W as Worker
+    participant W as "Member"
 
-    P->>B: fleet_send("do X", target=w) — blocks
-    B-->>W: "do X" (injected)
-    W->>W: works, never calls fleet_reply
-    B->>B: StatusPoller sees agent_status → idle/done
-    B->>B: AgentControl.read(w, "recent")
-    B-->>P: { outcome:"turn_done", text:<terminal tail> }
+    P->>B: "fleet_send — blocks or detaches"
+    B-->>W: "content injected"
+    W->>W: "works, never calls fleet_reply"
+    B->>B: "StatusPoller sees the turn end"
+    B->>B: "read the pane tail"
+    B->>B: "classify: exhausted? echoed brief? real report?"
+    B-->>P: "{ outcome: turn_done } or a named failure"
 ```
 
+The three ways it goes wrong, and what each looks like now:
+
+| What happened | What the lead used to get | What it gets today |
+|---|---|---|
+| The report is longer than the scrape window | The **end** silently cut off | Still clipped, but marked partial |
+| The member never started — spent credential | The lead's **own brief** echoed back as a report | A named failure: backend exhausted |
+| The member is simply slow | A tail of work in progress | Unchanged — read it as a hint, not a result |
+
+The echoed-brief case is the one to remember: it reads as a long, on-topic report with nothing in
+it from the member. It is suppressed now, but the general rule stands — **check the member's
+worktree with `git log` before believing a report you did not watch arrive.**
+
 ---
 
-## 7. Status gating
+## 2. Status gating
 
-Delivery only happens in a safe window. This is the state machine the `Injector` already
-enforces via `AgentStatus.injectable()`; MCP `fleet_send` is simply its producer.
+Delivery only happens in a safe window. `fleet_send` is a producer for the `Injector`, which
+already enforces this through `AgentStatus.injectable()`.
 
 ```mermaid
 stateDiagram-v2
     [*] --> IDLE
-    IDLE --> WORKING: message delivered / picks up
-    WORKING --> IDLE: turn done
-    WORKING --> BLOCKED: awaits input
-    BLOCKED --> WORKING: input delivered
-    IDLE --> UNKNOWN: detection glitch
-    BLOCKED --> UNKNOWN: detection glitch
-    UNKNOWN --> IDLE: re-detected
+    IDLE --> WORKING: "message delivered, picked up"
+    WORKING --> IDLE: "turn done"
+    WORKING --> BLOCKED: "awaits input"
+    BLOCKED --> WORKING: "input delivered"
+    IDLE --> UNKNOWN: "detection glitch"
+    BLOCKED --> UNKNOWN: "detection glitch"
+    UNKNOWN --> IDLE: "re-detected"
 
     note right of IDLE
         injectable — deliver head of FIFO
@@ -321,69 +172,17 @@ stateDiagram-v2
     end note
 ```
 
-At most one message is delivered per turn: after a send the `Injector` waits for a `WORKING`
-pickup before delivering the next, with a `PICKUP_GRACE_POLLS` fallback for turns faster than
-the poll interval. A herdr `events.subscribe` stream can later replace the sampling without
-touching this state machine.
+**At most one message per turn.** After a send, the `Injector` waits for a `WORKING` pickup before
+delivering the next, with a grace-poll fallback for turns that finish faster than the poll
+interval.
 
----
+Two consequences a lead feels directly:
 
-## 8. Error model
+- **A second send to a busy member never lands.** It reports as queued and times out. The member
+  is fine; the message simply waits, and then restarts the member when it next goes idle.
+- **A spawned member is not deliverable until it has mounted the MCP.** Until then a send waits on
+  that gate for about 60 seconds and then fails without ever reaching the pane.
 
-| Condition | `fleet_send` result | Notes |
-|---|---|---|
-| Worker replies | `{ outcome:"reply" }` | normal |
-| Worker asks | `{ outcome:"question", turn_id }` | answer with `fleet_send(turn_id)` |
-| Turn ends, no reply | `{ outcome:"turn_done" }` | terminal tail as text |
-| Deadline elapsed | `{ outcome:"timeout" }` | message may still be queued/delivered |
-| Worker vanished | error `worker_gone` | `Injector.drop` fails the queued future |
-| Guard breach on spawn | error `subscription_boundary` | REST `403` parity |
-| Delivery failed at herdr | error, message dropped | poisoned message not left blocking the FIFO |
-
-`fleet_reply` from a worker with no open waiter is **not** an error — it falls through to
-detached pane injection (§6.3).
-
----
-
-## 9. Mapping to existing code
-
-The MCP face is a thin adapter layer; nearly every capability already exists behind the REST
-seam. Only the **rendezvous registry** and the **caller-identity resolver** are new.
-
-| MCP tool | Existing collaborator | New work |
-|---|---|---|
-| `fleet_send` | `Injector.enqueue`, `AgentControl.send` | waiter registry, timeout, outcome mux (CB-104) |
-| `fleet_reply` / `fleet_ask` | `Injector` (pane injection) | reverse rendezvous, identity resolver |
-| `fleet_status` | `AgentControl.status`, `Injector.activeTargets` | pending-drain projection |
-| `fleet_spawn` / `list` / `stop` | `WorkerService.{spawn,list,stop}` | MCP adapter only |
-| `fleet_read` | `AgentControl.read` | MCP adapter only |
-
-Because the REST routes in `FleetApp` already exercise the collaborators, MCP tools are
-validated by **parity** against those routes, not by re-testing behavior.
-
----
-
-## 10. Open decisions
-
-1. **`fleet_ask` direction.** This page defines it as *worker-asks-primary* (a genuine reverse
-   channel, matching the "inject the primary's pane" language). The alternative — a synonym for
-   a blocking primary→worker send — is weaker and produces different plumbing. **Recommend
-   worker-asks-primary.**
-2. **Detached delivery shape.** A `block:false` param on `fleet_send` (keeps the catalog
-   small) vs. a separate `fleet_dispatch` tool. **Recommend the param.**
-3. **Auto-spawn on send.** `fleet_send` provisions a worker per profile when none exists
-   (simplest primary UX) vs. requiring an explicit `fleet_spawn` first. **Recommend
-   auto-spawn, defaulting on.**
-4. **Transport & SDK.** Streamable-HTTP/SSE co-located with the REST bind (recommended) vs.
-   stdio. Requires choosing a Java MCP server SDK and adding it to the pom.
-
----
-
-## 11. Implementation staging
-
-- **CB-104** — blocking `fleet_send` + rendezvous registry + caller-identity resolver
-  (the producer that finally drives the inert `StatusPoller`).
-- **CB-1xx** — `fleet_reply` / `fleet_ask` reverse rendezvous + detached pane injection.
-- **CB-1xx** — lifecycle + observability adapters (`fleet_spawn/list/stop/status/read`).
-- **CB-1xx** — transport wiring + `claude mcp add` docs; parity tests vs. REST.
-- **Later** — `fleet_cancel`; swap `StatusPoller` for herdr `events.subscribe`.
+`UNKNOWN` is deliberately neither injectable nor a pickup. A pane whose status cannot be read is
+not a pane that is safe to write to — see fleetd #176 for what happens when a gate treats an
+unreadable pane as a ready one.

fleetd/fleetd.example.yaml

@@ -172,7 +172,11 @@ herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
 #                      skills/MCP/hooks. Omit to leave the worker on the host default.
 #   parityOverlay    → repo-relative paths copied primary→worktree so a worker in a provisioned
 #                      worktree sees the same local config (CB-301-ext). Omit for the default set:
-#                      [.env, .envrc]. (.claude/settings.local.json is NOT in the default — it
+#                      [.env] only (CB-148). .envrc is left out of the default on purpose: it is
+#                      executable shell that direnv runs on every cd, so copying it carries
+#                      behaviour into the worker, not just values, unlike .env. An operator who
+#                      wants it copied can still write parityOverlay: [.env, .envrc] explicitly.
+#                      (.claude/settings.local.json is NOT in the default — it
 #                      pre-approves IDE/tool grants a member must not hold ambiently; CB-525/CB-634.)
 #
 #                      Do NOT add .mcp.json (CB-525). A worker's tools are whatever its launcher
@@ -206,6 +210,39 @@ herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
 #                      profile quarantines alone, under its own name, exactly as if the field did
 #                      not exist. Cooldown length is the top-level quarantineCooldownSeconds below.
 #                      HOT: read live at every spawn/exhaustion check — no restart needed.
+#   errorPattern     → fleetd #201 / #227: regex matched against a completion-fallback scrape to
+#                      classify a turn that ended with no fleet_reply as a BACKEND ERROR — a
+#                      credential outage or a provider 5xx — rather than a real answer or a
+#                      usage-limit exhaustion (exhaustedPattern above always wins when a line
+#                      matches both). Opt-in. Omit it and this profile falls back to fleetd's
+#                      built-in legacy pattern `(?i)\bAPI Error\s*:` — classification still
+#                      happens, just without a profile-specific match; every backend words its
+#                      failure differently, so a hardcoded sentence would only ever match one
+#                      of them.
+#                      DEFERRED: compiled once into a startup pattern map, same as exhaustedPattern
+#                      — editing it needs a daemon restart.
+#                      # errorPattern: "503 Service Unavailable"   # opt-in: classify a backend outage
+#
+#                      What happens once a match fires (BackendOutagePolicy, credentialId-keyed,
+#                      SEPARATE from the CB-578 stage B quarantine above and never merged with it):
+#                        - threshold 2 — TWO DISTINCT TARGETS (never raw events) on the same
+#                          effective credential inside a 60-second window start an "incident" and a
+#                          60-second cool-off for that credential. One member repeating the same
+#                          classified line twice never cools anything off — a real outage hits
+#                          every target on that credential, so requiring a second, independent
+#                          target loses nothing against the case this guards against, while
+#                          protecting against a heuristic misfire on one flaky member.
+#                        - a fresh error while a credential is already cooling off is ignored
+#                          outright: it neither extends the 60s deadline nor starts a new incident.
+#                        - `fleet_list`/`fleet_profiles` report a cooling credential with
+#                          `coolingOffForSeconds` (never `quarantinedForSeconds`, unless CB-578
+#                          exhaustion quarantine is ALSO independently active for the same
+#                          credential — the two checks can both fire at once). A spawn onto a
+#                          cooling profile is refused with a message naming the credential and
+#                          remaining seconds — "cooling off", never "exhausted", so an operator can
+#                          tell a short transient fault from a spent subscription at a glance.
+#                        - the lead gets ONE nudge per incident (not one per affected target), via
+#                          the same push loop that already delivers ticket/question reminders.
 #   env              → extra environment for this profile's workers, as a literal key/value map
 #                      (CB-511). Use it to give workers a toolchain.
 #
@@ -269,13 +306,49 @@ profiles:
     #   GOTCHA 2 — `maxLoad` is the ONLY throttle you have here. There is no metering, no budget
     #   and no refusal on cost; the cap on live members is the single thing standing between a
     #   fan-out and your monthly limit. Set it deliberately and keep it small.
+    #
+    #   GOTCHA 3 (fleetd #176, corrected by fleetd #257) — `maxLoad` counts members, never the lead
+    #   itself. The lead is a live `claude` session on this SAME account (a lead is never moved
+    #   off-subscription, whatever its own profile says), so it already holds one seat before any
+    #   member spawns. If a lead's `fleet.leaders.<name>.profile` names THIS profile — or ANY OTHER
+    #   `subscription: true` profile that shares this one's account (see THE SENTINEL, just below,
+    #   next to `credentialId:`) — `fleet_list` reports that seat count under `leadSeats`; see
+    #   `profile:` under THE FLEET below. `free` itself is NEVER reduced by `leadSeats`: `free` means
+    #   "what the real placement gate (`CompositePeerLauncher#enforceMaxLoad`) will actually grant a
+    #   fresh `fleet_spawn` right now", and that gate only ever compares live members against
+    #   `maxLoad` — it has no notion of the lead's own seat. An earlier cut of this feature
+    #   subtracted `leadSeats` from `free` on the theory it made `free` describe the true ceiling on
+    #   the account, but no backend seat ceiling shared with the lead has ever actually been
+    #   measured, and the subtraction just made `free` disagree with the one thing it is supposed to
+    #   describe — the fleetd #257 fix. `maxLoad: 3` means 3 member slots, full stop; a lead sharing
+    #   the account is a fact you can see in `leadSeats`, not a reason `free` undercounts spawns that
+    #   will, in practice, succeed.
+    #
+    #   THE SENTINEL (fleetd #176 stage 2, correcting an inert stage 1 fix): every `subscription:
+    #   true` profile that leaves `credentialId` unset shares ONE implicit account-wide credential
+    #   id with every other such profile on this host — because a subscription profile doesn't
+    #   authenticate with a credential of its own, it authenticates as the operator's own Claude
+    #   login, and there is exactly one of those. So on a typical host, `opus` (the lead's profile)
+    #   and `sonnet` (the members' profile) are linked automatically, with NOTHING to set here — that
+    #   is what makes GOTCHA 3 above work without also writing matching `credentialId:` values on
+    #   both. This linkage is not just cosmetic: it is the same key `BackendQuarantine`/cool-off use,
+    #   so a usage-limit hit on `opus` now quarantines `sonnet` too (and vice versa) — correct, since
+    #   they are one Claude account, but worth knowing before you wonder why an unrelated-looking
+    #   profile went quarantined.
+    #
+    #   WHEN TO OVERRIDE — set explicit, DIFFERENT `credentialId:` values on two `subscription: true`
+    #   profiles only when they are genuinely two separate Claude logins on the same host (a real,
+    #   if unusual, setup). An explicit `credentialId` always wins over the sentinel, so this is the
+    #   one way to keep two subscription profiles from being treated as one account for lead-seat
+    #   counting AND for quarantine/cool-off grouping alike.
     # gitTokenEnv: GITEA_TOKEN        # opt-in: let this profile's workers open their own PR (CB-302)
     # gitHostEnv: GITEA_HOST          # defaults to GITEA_HOST; injected only with gitTokenEnv
     # exhaustedPattern: "usage limit has been reached"   # opt-in: classify a usage-limit refusal (CB-578)
     # credentialId: shared-openai   # opt-in: quarantine together with every other profile sharing this id (CB-578)
+    # errorPattern: "503 Service Unavailable"   # opt-in: classify a backend outage (fleetd #201/#227) — see the key doc above
     # configDir: /Users/me/.ccs/instances/gx10   # CLAUDE_CONFIG_DIR — inherit that profile's skills/MCP
     # cwd: /Users/me/src/myrepo       # pin the working dir; omit to inherit the primary's
-    # parityOverlay: [".env", ".envrc"]   # the default; never add .mcp.json or .claude/settings.local.json — see above
+    # parityOverlay: [".env"]   # the default; add ".envrc" explicitly if you want it copied too (CB-148) — never add .mcp.json or .claude/settings.local.json — see above
     # ideMcpUrl: http://127.0.0.1:29170/index-mcp/streamable-http   # opt-in (CB-634): IDE code intelligence, pinned to the worktree
     # ideProjectDir: fleetd          # CB-634: module dir the IDE opens + the overlay pins (this repo's pom is in fleetd/)
     # ideOpenCommand: env DISPLAY=:10.0 idea {dir}   # CB-634 auto-open: opens {dir} in the IDE at spawn; omit to open by hand
@@ -369,6 +442,12 @@ placement: weighted
 # DEFERRED: baked once into the BackendQuarantine built at startup — a running quarantine keeps
 # its original cooldown regardless; a new value only applies to a quarantine that starts after a
 # restart. Editing this needs a daemon restart to take effect.
+#
+# This does NOT govern the fleetd #201 / #227 backend-error cool-off documented under errorPattern
+# above — that mechanism is a separate, shorter-lived, NOT-configurable policy (threshold 2 distinct
+# targets, 60-second window, 60-second cool-off), on purpose: it exists to survive a brief transient
+# fault, not to replace this 30-minute exhaustion quarantine. Do not conflate the two when reading
+# fleet_list/fleet_profiles — coolingOffForSeconds and quarantinedForSeconds are independent facts.
 # quarantineCooldownSeconds: 1800
 
 # Re-read this file without restarting the daemon (CB-559). Off unless you add this block, so an
@@ -395,8 +474,10 @@ placement: weighted
 #               stage B — baked once into the quarantine tracker built at startup), ADDING or
 #               REMOVING a profile (a new backend needs its own launcher, and launchers are built
 #               once), AND an existing profile's launch settings — model, baseUrl, argv, env,
-#               configDir, mcpUrl, tabLabel, exhaustedPattern. The launcher takes a copy of
-#               `profiles:` at startup and resolves every spawn out of that copy, so those never
+#               configDir, mcpUrl, tabLabel, exhaustedPattern, errorPattern (fleetd #201 / #227 —
+#               compiled once into a startup pattern map the same way exhaustedPattern is). The
+#               launcher takes a copy of `profiles:` at startup and resolves every spawn out of
+#               that copy, so those never
 #               reach a launch until you restart. The reload logs them by name rather than
 #               pretending they applied.
 #   COLD      → cannot change at all: `bind:`, `herdrSocket:`, `broker:` and `auth:`. The socket is
@@ -457,6 +538,23 @@ fleet:
   # recognised: give it a `profile:` and the daemon launches the shortfall when fewer than
   # `instances` are live. Omit `profile:` and it is recognise-only, as before.
   #
+  # `profile:` has a SECOND job as of fleetd #176, even for a recognise-only lead you never want
+  # auto-launched: it is also how fleetd learns which account this lead's own session shares. A
+  # `subscription: true` profile bills the operator's Claude account, and the lead itself is always
+  # a live `claude` session on that same account — `maxLoad` never counted that seat. If a lead
+  # entry here names a profile that shares a worker profile's account, `fleet_list` reports the
+  # lead's live seat(s) on that worker profile under `leadSeats` — informational only, as of fleetd
+  # #257 it is NEVER subtracted from `free` (see GOTCHA 3, next to `maxLoad:`, in THE WORKERS above,
+  # for why). "Shares the account" is decided by matching `effectiveCredentialId()`, which (fleetd
+  # #176 stage 2 — see THE SENTINEL, next to `credentialId:`, in THE WORKERS above) means: an
+  # explicit, matching `credentialId:` on both, OR — the common case, needing NO extra config — both
+  # being `subscription: true` with `credentialId` left unset, since those all share one implicit
+  # account-wide id. A lead on `opus` and workers on `sonnet` link automatically this way; they do
+  # NOT need the same profile name. Setting `profile:` on an already-running, recognise-only lead is
+  # safe — the daemon only launches the SHORTFALL below `instances`, so naming a profile here does
+  # not, by itself, start anything. Omit it and fleetd has no way to derive the sharing — there is
+  # no other reliable signal on the daemon's side — so that lead's seat never appears in `leadSeats`.
+  #
   # `tab:` (CB-579) is REQUIRED and is the only field identity depends on — the exact label of the
   # tab hosting the lead, matched case-insensitively. Label the tab yourself and put that same
   # string here, and the pane is recognised on the next rescan. Reopen the tab later, or the session

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java

@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.lead.LeadLauncher;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.PaneLocator;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.UnixSocketHerdrClient;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorPatternLookup;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorSink;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustedPatternLookup;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustionSink;
@@ -49,7 +51,9 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionReaper;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.member.CompositePeerLauncher;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.member.HerdrPeerLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.MemberCredentialPolicyView;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.member.OpenCodeLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
 import io.javalin.Javalin;
 import org.slf4j.Logger;
@@ -61,6 +65,7 @@ import java.util.ArrayList;
 import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Optional;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.concurrent.Executors;
 import java.util.concurrent.ScheduledExecutorService;
@@ -169,6 +174,18 @@ public final class Fleetd {
             }
         });
         List<HerdrPeerLauncher> adapters = new ArrayList<>();
+        // fleetd #175: the daemon's real ExhaustionSink can only be built once `sessions` exists
+        // (below), but `sessions` needs `workers`, which needs the adapters built right here — a
+        // genuine cycle. Break it exactly like liveCountRef below: a forwarding sink built now,
+        // pointed at the real one once it exists.
+        AtomicReference<ExhaustionSink> exhaustionSinkRef = new AtomicReference<>(ExhaustionSink.none());
+        // fleetd #234, round 4: routed through the shared ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo factory
+        // rather than written inline here — not because a lambda at this call site is unsafe
+        // anymore (it is not: the 3-arg overload is now the interface's single abstract method, so
+        // there is no 2-arg overload left for any lambda to silently bind to instead), but so a
+        // test can call the exact same object this line builds, instead of asserting a copy of its
+        // shape (round 3's lesson).
+        ExhaustionSink forwardingExhaustionSink = ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo(exhaustionSinkRef::get);
         // The claude-code adapter is the always-present default; keep it even with no profiles (so a
         // bridge configured with no workers, or opencode-only, still has a well-defined base adapter)
         // unless opencode is the only kind configured.
@@ -184,7 +201,7 @@ public final class Fleetd {
                     opencodeProfiles, cfg.effectiveDefaultProfile(), System::getenv,
                     cfg.spawnReadyTimeoutMs(), cfg.spawnReadyPollMs(),
                     () -> config.get().fleet(),
-                    () -> config.get().memberCredentials(), config::get));
+                    () -> config.get().memberCredentials(), config::get, forwardingExhaustionSink));
         }
         AtomicReference<Function<String, Integer>> liveCountRef = new AtomicReference<>(_ -> 0);
         // CB-578 stage B: one quarantine tracker for the whole daemon, shared between the launcher
@@ -193,12 +210,18 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         // here, at startup, and a config reload only changes it for a daemon restart.
         BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(System::nanoTime,
                 TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds()));
+        // fleetd #201 Unit 5: one outage-cool-off tracker for the whole daemon, shared between the
+        // launcher (checked at spawn, like `quarantine` above) and the backend-error sink wired in
+        // below (written on a classified backend error). A SEPARATE, shorter-lived mechanism from
+        // `quarantine` — see BackendOutagePolicy's class doc — never merged with it.
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(System::nanoTime);
         PeerLauncher workers = new CompositePeerLauncher(
                 adapters,
                 cfg.effectiveDefaultProfile(),
                 config,
                 profileName -> liveCountRef.get().apply(profileName),
-                quarantine);
+                quarantine,
+                outagePolicy);
         // CB-504: under supervision (launchd/systemd) fleetd can start before herdr's socket
         // exists. The client itself is lazy — it connects per call — but the orphan reap below is
         // the first thing that actually talks to herdr, so without this wait a boot-order race
@@ -329,25 +352,100 @@ public final class Fleetd {
                 .map(session -> exhaustedPatternsByProfile.get(session.profile()))
                 .orElse(null);
         log.info("backend-exhausted classification (CB-578 stage A): {}",
-                CompletionResolver.coverage(cfg.profiles().keySet(), exhaustedPatternsByProfile.keySet()));
+                CompletionResolver.coverage("exhaustedPattern", cfg.profiles().keySet(),
+                        exhaustedPatternsByProfile.keySet()));
+        // fleetd #201 Unit 5: classify a completion-fallback scrape that matches a profile's
+        // configured backend-error refusal (a credential outage, a provider 5xx) as a backend error
+        // rather than handing it back as a real answer. Compiled once at startup, keyed by profile
+        // name, mirroring exhaustedPatternsByProfile above — a profile with no configured
+        // errorPattern is simply absent here, so CompletionResolver falls back to its built-in
+        // narrow {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:} compatibility pattern for that profile's targets
+        // (BackendErrorPatternLookup#legacy's contract — see backendErrorPatterns below).
+        Map<String, Pattern> errorPatternsByProfile = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        cfg.profiles().forEach((name, profile) -> {
+            if (profile.hasErrorPattern()) {
+                errorPatternsByProfile.put(name, Pattern.compile(profile.errorPattern()));
+            }
+        });
+        // fleetd #248: extracted to a static factory (see backendErrorPatternLookup below) so a
+        // test can prove main() actually PASSES this into CompletionResolver, not only that the
+        // lookup itself behaves correctly — the exact gap fleetd #248 exists to close.
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatterns = backendErrorPatternLookup(sessions::roster,
+                errorPatternsByProfile);
+        log.info("backend-error classification (fleetd #201 Unit 5): {}",
+                CompletionResolver.coverage("errorPattern", cfg.profiles().keySet(),
+                        errorPatternsByProfile.keySet()));
         // CB-578 stage B: on a classification that actually wins, quarantine the exhausted profile's
         // CREDENTIAL — not the profile name — so a profile sharing that credential (e.g. two models
         // on one OpenAI account) is refused too, not just the one that happened to report it. Reads
         // the profile config live off `config`, so a credentialId edit is hot: no restart needed.
-        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink = (target, reason) -> sessions.roster().stream()
-                .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
-                .findFirst()
-                .map(MemberSession::profile)
-                .map(profileName -> config.get().profiles().get(profileName))
-                .ifPresent(profile -> {
-                    String credentialId = profile.effectiveCredentialId();
-                    quarantine.quarantine(credentialId);
-                    log.warn("credential '{}' quarantined for {}s (profile '{}' classified "
-                                    + "BACKEND_EXHAUSTED): {}", credentialId,
-                            cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds(), profile.profile(), reason);
-                });
+        //
+        // fleetd #175: this sink is now also the quarantine target for OpenCodeLauncher's
+        // model-mismatch check — it needs nothing profile-specific from the caller beyond `target`
+        // (a herdr terminal id) and `reason`, so reusing it here is exactly "the existing
+        // ExhaustionSink path", not a new mechanism.
+        //
+        // fleetd #234: that check fires from SessionAwareHandle.agentSessionId(), which runs during
+        // SessionManager.acquire() BEFORE this session is registered in sessions.roster() — so the
+        // roster-only lookup below used to find nothing, .ifPresent silently no-op'd, and the
+        // ERROR the check had just logged ("quarantining this profile's credential") was a lie:
+        // nothing was quarantined, and nothing said so. Two changes: (1) OpenCodeLauncher now
+        // passes its OWN profile name via ExhaustionSink's 3-arg overload — it already has the
+        // FleetConfig.Profile in hand and does not need the roster at all — used here as a
+        // fallback whenever the roster lookup misses; (2) if a profile still cannot be resolved
+        // (neither the roster nor the hint names a configured one), this logs loudly at ERROR
+        // instead of silently doing nothing — a control that cannot act must say so.
+        // fleetd #234, round 4: the 3-arg overload is now ExhaustionSink's single abstract method,
+        // so this is safely a lambda — there is no separate 2-arg overload left for it to bind to
+        // instead and silently drop profileHint (that was rounds 1-3's whole hazard).
+        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink = (target, reason, profileHint) -> {
+            String profileName = sessions.roster().stream()
+                    .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
+                    .findFirst()
+                    .map(MemberSession::profile)
+                    .orElse(profileHint);
+            FleetConfig.Profile profile = profileName == null ? null : config.get().profiles().get(profileName);
+            if (profile == null) {
+                log.error("quarantine requested for target '{}' ({}) but no profile could be "
+                                + "resolved — the target is not (yet) in the roster, and {} — "
+                                + "credential NOT quarantined (fleetd #234)",
+                        target, reason,
+                        profileHint == null ? "no profile hint was given"
+                                : "the hinted profile '" + profileHint + "' is not configured");
+                return;
+            }
+            String credentialId = profile.effectiveCredentialId();
+            quarantine.quarantine(credentialId);
+            log.warn("credential '{}' quarantined for {}s (profile '{}'): {}", credentialId,
+                    cfg.quarantineCooldownSeconds(), profile.profile(), reason);
+        };
+        // fleetd #175: point the forwarding sink handed to OpenCodeLauncher above at the real one,
+        // now that `sessions` exists to resolve target -> session -> profile.
+        exhaustionSinkRef.set(exhaustionSink);
+        // fleetd #201 Unit 5: the production BackendErrorSink needs `pushLoop` (built further below,
+        // after `sessions`) to tell a lead about an incident or an unmapped target — the same
+        // construction-order cycle `exhaustionSinkRef` breaks above, broken the same way: a mutable
+        // holder set once `pushLoop` exists, read lazily from inside the lambda built here.
+        AtomicReference<ReplyPushLoop> pushLoopRef = new AtomicReference<>();
+        // fleetd #248: extracted to a static factory (see backendErrorSink below), public rather
+        // than package-private like the other two factories here, so
+        // dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendOutageFlowTest can exercise the REAL production sink
+        // directly instead of a hand-mirrored copy of this lambda — that copy was precisely the
+        // gap fleetd #248 exists to close (see that test's class doc for the history).
+        BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink = backendErrorSink(sessions, () -> config.get().profiles(),
+                outagePolicy, pushLoopRef::get);
         AgentControl agents = router.memberAgents();
-        CompletionResolver completion = new CompletionResolver(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink);
+        // Both fleetd#201 Unit 5 (backend-error patterns + sink) and fleetd#241 (the worktree/branch
+        // lookup the fallback report names) land on this one call. The full constructor takes both,
+        // so neither feature is dropped; nowNanos must be passed explicitly to reach it.
+        //
+        // fleetd #248: every argument built specifically for this call (backendErrorPatterns and
+        // backendErrorSink above, and the worktree/branch lookup right here) now comes from a
+        // static factory tested on its own; FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest source-asserts that
+        // THIS call actually passes them, which is the coverage that was missing before.
+        CompletionResolver completion = new CompletionResolver(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns,
+                exhaustionSink, backendErrorPatterns, backendErrorSink, System::nanoTime,
+                worktreeBranchLookup(sessions::roster));
         // CB-113: deliver only to an available worker (its MCP is connected), never its boot window.
         // CB-301: the manager's presence bridge records availability and drives SPAWNING → READY.
         MemberPresence presence = sessions.asPresence();
@@ -429,6 +527,9 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         Metrics metrics = FleetMetrics.create(sessions, replyInbox);
         var pushLoop = new ReplyPushLoop(primaryRegistry, router.leadAgents(), replyInbox,
                 pushScheduler, maxReminders, backoffMs, metrics);
+        // fleetd #201 Unit 5: point the forwarding holder captured by the backendErrorSink lambda
+        // above at the real push loop, now that it exists.
+        pushLoopRef.set(pushLoop);
         // CB-551: idle-lead heartbeat. Opt-in; absent `leadHeartbeat:` this is never constructed, so
         // an upgraded daemon cannot silently start spending subscription on nudging an idle lead.
         // It has its own single-thread scheduler and holds its own scheduler shutdown via close().
@@ -536,7 +637,12 @@ public final class Fleetd {
                     var configured = config.get().profiles().get(profile);
                     return configured == null ? null : configured.effectiveCredentialId();
                 }, quarantine),
-                leadMailbox);
+                leadMailbox,
+                new FleetMcp.OutageSource(profile -> {
+                    var configured = config.get().profiles().get(profile);
+                    return configured == null ? null : configured.effectiveCredentialId();
+                }, outagePolicy),
+                new FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource(leadSeatLookup(() -> config.get().profiles(), leaders, leads)));
 
         // CB-637: the receive half. Only constructed when a lead mailbox actually opened — with no
         // coordinator (or an unreachable one) there is nothing to deliver, so no scheduler is
@@ -604,8 +710,11 @@ public final class Fleetd {
 
         // CB-185: give FleetApp both daemons — /healthz must require both to answer and
         // GET /sessions must merge across both, or a down/unpolled member daemon is invisible.
+        // fleetd #111: live (re-read-per-request) memberCredentials view for GET /member-credentials —
+        // same hot-reload shape as the memberCredentials supplier passed to ClaudeCodeLauncher above.
         Javalin app = new FleetApp(herdr, memberHerdr, workers, sessions, messages, presence, mcp.servlet(),
-                callers, metrics, deliverable).build();
+                callers, metrics, deliverable,
+                () -> MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(config.get().memberCredentials())).build();
         app.start(cfg.bind().host(), cfg.bind().port());
         log.info("fleetd listening on {}:{}, herdr socket {}",
                 cfg.bind().host(), cfg.bind().port(), socket);
@@ -634,6 +743,185 @@ public final class Fleetd {
         return target -> presence.isPresent(target) || leads.get().containsKey(target);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #248: package-private factory for the member worktree/branch lookup {@link
+     * CompletionResolver} uses to name a fallback report's worktree and branch (fleetd#241).
+     *
+     * <p>Before this ticket the lookup was an anonymous lambda built inline inside {@code main}'s
+     * {@code CompletionResolver} constructor call — provably untested wiring, the whole reason
+     * fleetd #248 exists: dropping that one argument (passing {@code _ -> null} instead) compiled
+     * clean and left every test green. Extracted here, {@code main} now calls this factory instead
+     * of building the lambda inline, and a source assertion on that call site
+     * ({@code FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest}) proves the argument is still actually passed.
+     *
+     * <p>Takes the roster as a plain {@link Supplier} — not a {@link SessionManager} — so this is
+     * directly testable with a hand-built session list; no real {@code SessionManager} (launcher,
+     * worktrees, …) needs constructing. Follows the same {@code static} factory pattern as
+     * {@link #deliverableTo} above.
+     *
+     * @param roster the live member roster, normally {@code sessions::roster}
+     */
+    static Function<String, CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch> worktreeBranchLookup(
+            Supplier<List<MemberSession>> roster) {
+        return target -> roster.get().stream()
+                .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
+                .findFirst()
+                .map(session -> new CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch(session.worktree(), session.branch()))
+                .orElse(null);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176: per-profile factory for {@link FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource} — how many seats a
+     * profile's own live LEAD session(s) hold on the same Claude subscription.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code maxLoad} counts only members; the lead itself is a live {@code claude} session that
+     * is never moved off-subscription ({@code LeadLauncher} strips {@code ANTHROPIC_BASE_URL}/
+     * {@code AUTH_TOKEN} from a lead's env whatever its profile says), so a {@code subscription:
+     * true} profile's real ceiling is lower than its configured {@code maxLoad} by exactly the
+     * number of lead seats sharing that same account.
+     *
+     * <p><b>The derivation, and why this route was chosen over a new config key.</b> The link is
+     * {@code fleet.leaders.<name>.profile} — the field the operator already sets to name which
+     * {@code profiles:} entry a lead runs on (CB-557; see {@code fleetd.example.yaml}) — matched
+     * against the profile passed in here via {@link FleetConfig.Profile#effectiveCredentialId()},
+     * the same grouping key {@link dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine} already uses to say
+     * two profiles share one account. Nothing new is added to the config schema: this reuses a field
+     * that already exists and already means "the profile this lead's own session runs on". A lead
+     * entry that names no {@code profile:} (recognise-only, CB-558) says nothing about which account
+     * it shares, and there is no other reliable signal on the daemon's side to derive that from — so
+     * such a lead contributes no seats, exactly as before this ticket. Making that lead's seat count
+     * requires the operator to add one line (`profile: sonnet` under its {@code fleet.leaders} entry)
+     * — a config statement, not a code change, and the smallest one available given the field
+     * already exists for a closely related purpose.
+     *
+     * <p>Only counts leads {@code liveLeadTerminals} currently reports — CB-531's live tab scan (or
+     * the legacy {@code primary.terminal} pin) — never every configured lead: an entry whose
+     * {@code instances} nobody has actually started is not really competing for a seat, and must not
+     * shrink capacity for one that was never live.
+     *
+     * @param profiles          the live profile map, normally {@code () -> config.get().profiles()}
+     *                          in {@code main} — hot, like every other {@code maxLoad}/
+     *                          {@code credentialId} read {@link FleetMcp.CapacitySource} already does
+     * @param leaders           {@code fleet.leaders}, read once at startup like the rest of that
+     *                          block ({@code fleetd.example.yaml} notes it is not hot) — passed as a
+     *                          plain map, never re-read from {@code config.get()}
+     * @param liveLeadTerminals terminal_id → lead name for every CURRENTLY recognised lead, normally
+     *                          the same supplier {@link dev.ltms.fleet.auth.CallerResolver#leads()}
+     *                          and {@code LeadCoordLoop} already consult
+     */
+    static Function<String, Integer> leadSeatLookup(Supplier<Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile>> profiles,
+            Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders, Supplier<Map<String, String>> liveLeadTerminals) {
+        return profileName -> {
+            FleetConfig.Profile target = profiles.get().get(profileName);
+            if (target == null || !target.isSubscription()) {
+                return 0;
+            }
+            String targetCredential = target.effectiveCredentialId();
+            int seats = 0;
+            for (String leadName : liveLeadTerminals.get().values()) {
+                FleetConfig.Leader lead = leaders.get(leadName);
+                if (lead == null || lead.profile() == null || lead.profile().isBlank()) {
+                    continue;
+                }
+                FleetConfig.Profile leadProfile = profiles.get().get(lead.profile());
+                if (leadProfile != null && targetCredential.equals(leadProfile.effectiveCredentialId())) {
+                    seats++;
+                }
+            }
+            return seats;
+        };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #248 / fleetd#201 Unit 5: package-private factory for the per-target backend-error
+     * pattern lookup {@link CompletionResolver} classifies a pane scrape against. Closes over the
+     * live roster (to resolve a target to a profile) and {@code errorPatternsByProfile} (each
+     * profile's configured {@code errorPattern}, already compiled by the caller — the same map also
+     * feeds the coverage log next to where this is called) — nothing else, so it is directly
+     * testable. See {@link #worktreeBranchLookup} above for why this ticket exists and why the
+     * factory takes a roster {@link Supplier} rather than a {@link SessionManager}.
+     *
+     * @param roster                 the live member roster, normally {@code sessions::roster}
+     * @param errorPatternsByProfile every profile that has an {@code errorPattern} configured,
+     *                               keyed by profile name
+     */
+    static BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatternLookup(Supplier<List<MemberSession>> roster,
+            Map<String, Pattern> errorPatternsByProfile) {
+        return target -> roster.get().stream()
+                .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
+                .findFirst()
+                .map(session -> errorPatternsByProfile.get(session.profile()))
+                .orElse(null);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #248 / fleetd#201 Unit 5: factory for the production {@link BackendErrorSink} — the
+     * collaborator {@link CompletionResolver} notifies when a pane-scrape classification actually
+     * resolves a waiter as a backend error. Order: (1) mark the member BACKEND_ERROR; (2) resolve
+     * profile/credential through the roster — fail loud (never {@code Optional.ifPresent}, the
+     * fleetd #234 lesson applied to this sink) and notify the lead via {@code
+     * onBackendTargetUnmapped} when it cannot be resolved; (3) record the error in {@code
+     * outagePolicy}; (4) on a NEW incident (the {@code record()} call that actually crosses the
+     * threshold), tell the lead via {@code onBackendIncident}.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code public}, unlike {@link #worktreeBranchLookup} and {@link #backendErrorPatternLookup}
+     * above: {@code dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendOutageFlowTest} exercises this exact object as the
+     * real, wired production path, replacing what its own class doc used to call out as a
+     * hand-mirrored copy of this lambda ("mirrors {@code Fleetd.main}'s {@code backendErrorSink}
+     * lambda line-for-line") — that copy proved only itself, never that {@code main} still wires the
+     * real thing. That was precisely the gap fleetd #248 exists to close.
+     *
+     * @param sessions the session registry; both read (roster) and written (onBackendError)
+     * @param profiles the live profile map, normally {@code () -> config.get().profiles()} in
+     *                 {@code main}, or a fixed test map via {@code () -> profiles}
+     * @param pushLoop the lead-nudge loop, read lazily: {@code main} builds this sink before the
+     *                 real {@link ReplyPushLoop} exists (a genuine construction-order cycle, broken
+     *                 the same way {@code exhaustionSinkRef} is a few lines above it), so a
+     *                 {@link Supplier} reads whatever {@code main} has filled in by the time a real
+     *                 backend error fires
+     */
+    public static BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink(SessionManager sessions,
+            Supplier<Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile>> profiles, BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy,
+            Supplier<ReplyPushLoop> pushLoop) {
+        return (target, matchedLine, reason) -> {
+            sessions.onBackendError(target, reason);
+
+            String profileName = sessions.roster().stream()
+                    .filter(session -> target.equals(session.terminalId()))
+                    .findFirst()
+                    .map(MemberSession::profile)
+                    .orElse(null);
+            FleetConfig.Profile profile = profileName == null ? null : profiles.get().get(profileName);
+            if (profile == null) {
+                log.error("backend error on target '{}' ({}) but no profile could be resolved — the "
+                                + "target is not (yet) in the roster — no cool-off applied (fleetd #201 Unit 5)",
+                        target, reason);
+                ReplyPushLoop loop = pushLoop.get();
+                if (loop != null) {
+                    loop.onBackendTargetUnmapped(target, reason);
+                }
+                return;
+            }
+            String credentialId = profile.effectiveCredentialId();
+            Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident = outagePolicy.record(credentialId, target, reason);
+            incident.ifPresent(inc -> {
+                List<String> affectedProfiles = profiles.get().values().stream()
+                        .filter(p -> credentialId.equals(p.effectiveCredentialId()))
+                        .map(FleetConfig.Profile::profile)
+                        .sorted()
+                        .toList();
+                log.warn("credential '{}' cooling off for {}s after backend errors on {} distinct "
+                                + "target(s) (profile '{}'): {}", credentialId,
+                        inc.remainingCoolOffSeconds(), inc.evidenceCount(), profile.profile(), reason);
+                ReplyPushLoop loop = pushLoop.get();
+                if (loop != null) {
+                    loop.onBackendIncident(inc.id(), inc.targets(), credentialId, affectedProfiles,
+                            (int) inc.remainingCoolOffSeconds());
+                }
+            });
+        };
+    }
+
     /** Injection seam for {@link #selectReplyInbox}: production binds {@link AmqpReplyInbox#open}. */
     @FunctionalInterface
     interface AmqpOpener {
@@ -782,7 +1070,7 @@ public final class Fleetd {
 
     /**
      * CB-594: which env vars the loaded config actually needs, and why — every non-{@code
-     * subscription} profile's {@code tokenEnv} (a subscription profile never reads one, see
+     * subscription} profile's explicitly configured {@code tokenEnv} (a subscription profile never reads one, see
      * {@link FleetConfig.Profile#isSubscription()}), plus every profile's {@code gitTokenEnv}
      * where set (opt-in), plus a configured {@code broker.uriEnv} (CB-151). Derived from the
      * config, not hard-coded, so a new profile is covered for free. A var required by more than one
@@ -799,7 +1087,9 @@ public final class Fleetd {
     static Map<String, List<String>> requiredSecretEnvVars(FleetConfig cfg) {
         Map<String, List<String>> requiredBy = new LinkedHashMap<>();
         cfg.profiles().forEach((name, profile) -> {
-            if (!profile.isSubscription()) {
+            // All kinds are checked when tokenEnv is explicit. OpenCode may use provider credentials,
+            // but an explicit tokenEnv still declares a required host secret for its configured provider.
+            if (!profile.isSubscription() && profile.hasTokenEnv()) {
                 requiredBy.computeIfAbsent(profile.tokenEnv(), _ -> new ArrayList<>())
                         .add("profile '" + name + "' tokenEnv");
             }
@@ -825,7 +1115,7 @@ public final class Fleetd {
      * <p>A missing entry only warns — it must never refuse to start. A daemon that boots and says
      * what is wrong is strictly more useful than one that will not boot at all.
      */
-    private static void reportRequiredSecrets(FleetConfig cfg) {
+    static void reportRequiredSecrets(FleetConfig cfg) {
         Map<String, List<String>> requiredBy = requiredSecretEnvVars(cfg);
         if (requiredBy.isEmpty()) {
             log.info("startup secrets: no profile references a token env var — nothing to check");
@@ -859,12 +1149,14 @@ public final class Fleetd {
      * #requiredSecretEnvVars} is exposed for {@link #reportRequiredSecrets}'s own test.
      */
     static void reportMemberCredentialsGap(FleetConfig cfg) {
-        FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds = cfg.memberCredentials();
-        if (creds != null && !creds.known().isEmpty()) {
+        // fleetd #111: the counts below come from MemberCredentialPolicyView, the same class the
+        // live GET /member-credentials endpoint reads — one place computes them, not two.
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(cfg.memberCredentials());
+        if (view.present()) {
             log.info("memberCredentials: policy={}, {} known name(s), {} allowed — blocking {} on "
                             + "every spawn{}",
-                    creds.policy(), creds.known().size(), creds.allow().size(), creds.blockedSet().size(),
-                    creds.isAllowList()
+                    view.policy(), view.knownCount(), view.allowedCount(), view.blockedCount(),
+                    cfg.memberCredentials().isAllowList()
                             ? " (allow-list: known/allow are reporting only — the control is the derived ZDOTDIR scrub)"
                             : "");
             return;

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/auth/MemberLifecycle.java

@@ -5,17 +5,70 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole;
 /** Optional session lifecycle hook for live member-slot bindings. */
 public interface MemberLifecycle {
 
+    /** A slot held before a member process starts. */
+    record SlotReservation(String slot, String profile) { }
+
     MemberLifecycle NONE = new MemberLifecycle() {
         @Override
-        public void acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal) {
+        public MemberRole acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal) {
+            return role; // no registry configured — nothing to bind against, so the request stands
         }
 
         @Override
         public void released(String terminal) {
         }
+
+        @Override
+        public void requireSlotFor(MemberRole role, String profile) {
+            // no registry configured — nothing to validate against, so nothing is refused
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public SlotReservation reserve(MemberRole role, String profile) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public boolean bind(SlotReservation reservation, String terminal) {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public void release(SlotReservation reservation) {
+        }
     };
 
-    void acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal);
+    /**
+     * Try to bind a newly spawned {@code terminal} into the role it was granted.
+     *
+     * @return the role this session actually holds: {@code role} unchanged for a role with no
+     *         live slot-binding semantics (dev, reviewer), or when the bind succeeded; a fallback
+     *         role — never {@code role} — when a slot-bound role (architect) could not be bound.
+     *         Callers must record THIS value on the session, never the requested {@code role}, so
+     *         a later roster read never reports a role the session does not hold (CB-619). In
+     *         normal operation this fallback should not happen once a reservation has been bound.
+     *         It remains the honest answer if a caller has no reservation, or if binding a
+     *         reservation unexpectedly fails.
+     */
+    MemberRole acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal);
 
     void released(String terminal);
+
+    /**
+     * Refuse an acquire before anything spawns when {@code role} requires a live slot binding and
+     * no configured slot carries {@code profile} (CB-619 / fleetd #123). A no-op for a role with
+     * no slot-binding semantics.
+     *
+     * @throws IllegalArgumentException naming the role, the profile, and the pools that do carry it
+     */
+    void requireSlotFor(MemberRole role, String profile);
+
+    /** Reserve a matching slot before launch, or refuse before a charter can be delivered. */
+    SlotReservation reserve(MemberRole role, String profile);
+
+    /** Convert a reservation into a live terminal binding. */
+    boolean bind(SlotReservation reservation, String terminal);
+
+    /** Return an unbound reservation after a failed launch. */
+    void release(SlotReservation reservation);
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/auth/MemberRegistry.java

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 import java.util.Collections;
 import java.util.HashMap;
 import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
+import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Objects;
 
@@ -55,8 +56,10 @@ public final class MemberRegistry implements MemberLifecycle {
     }
 
     private final Map<String, Entry> slots;
-    /** Live {@code terminal_id → qualified slot key}; guarded by {@code this}. */
+    /** Live {@code terminal_id → qualified slot key}; guarded by {@code terminalToSlot}. */
     private final Map<String, String> terminalToSlot = new HashMap<>();
+    /** Slot keys held between reservation and the terminal binding. Guarded by terminalToSlot. */
+    private final java.util.Set<String> reservedSlots = new java.util.HashSet<>();
 
     /** Flatten every role pool in {@code fleet} into one registry. Leaders are not members. */
     public MemberRegistry(FleetConfig.Fleet fleet) {
@@ -166,7 +169,7 @@ public final class MemberRegistry implements MemberLifecycle {
             if (existingSlot != null) {
                 return slot.equals(existingSlot); // already this slot (idempotent) or a different one
             }
-            if (terminalToSlot.containsValue(slot)) {
+            if (terminalToSlot.containsValue(slot) || reservedSlots.contains(slot)) {
                 return false; // slot already hosts a terminal — no second one
             }
             terminalToSlot.put(terminal, slot);
@@ -206,19 +209,116 @@ public final class MemberRegistry implements MemberLifecycle {
      *
      * <p>The role check is lifecycle policy. {@link CallerResolver} repeats it when resolving a
      * binding, so a later lifecycle regression cannot turn a worker into an architect.
+     *
+     * <p>CB-619 / fleetd #123: the return value is the role this session actually holds, and the
+     * caller is required to record THAT — never the requested {@code role} — on the session. Before
+     * this fix the caller kept the requested role regardless of whether the bind below succeeded, so
+     * a demoted session's {@code GET /members} row still said {@code "architect"} while
+     * {@code fleet_whoami} (which reads the live binding, not the request) correctly said
+     * {@code "worker"} — three sources of truth that disagreed about one live member, silently.
      */
     @Override
-    public void acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal) {
+    public MemberRole acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal) {
         if (role != MemberRole.ARCHITECT || terminal == null || terminal.isBlank()) {
-            return;
+            return role;
         }
         // slotsFor preserves definition order, so duplicate-profile slots use the first free one.
         for (Entry entry : slotsFor(MemberRole.ARCHITECT).values()) {
             if (Objects.equals(profile, entry.profile()) && bind(entry.key(), terminal)) {
-                return;
+                return MemberRole.ARCHITECT;
+            }
+        }
+        // fleetd #123: at least WARN — a role downgrade that the roster must now also reflect is
+        // not routine bookkeeping. requireSlotFor already refuses the config-gap case (no slot at
+        // all carries this profile) before a process ever spawns; reaching here means the config DID
+        // carry a matching slot but every one of them was already bound to a different terminal — a
+        // race this pre-spawn check cannot close on its own (see requireSlotFor's javadoc).
+        log.warn("member slot: no free architect slot for profile={} terminal={}; holding the session "
+                + "as {} instead of the architect it asked for — every configured slot for this "
+                + "profile is already bound to a different terminal", profile, terminal,
+                MemberRole.DEV.wireName());
+        return MemberRole.DEV;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * CB-619 / fleetd #123: refuse an architect acquire before anything spawns when no configured
+     * slot carries {@code profile} — the config-gap case from the original defect report (a spawn
+     * asked for {@code role=architect, profile=sonnet}, and {@code fleet.architects} carried only
+     * {@code opus} and {@code sol}). A dev/reviewer acquire is always a no-op: those pools are
+     * placement candidates only (see {@code CompositePeerLauncher}), never a live identity binding,
+     * so there is nothing here to refuse — an explicit profile outside the pool for those roles is a
+     * documented operator override, not a defect.
+     *
+     * <p>This closes the config-gap case, not the live-capacity case: a profile that DOES carry a
+     * slot can still lose the race to a concurrent spawn between this check and the actual
+     * {@link #bind}, which is why {@link #acquired} must still answer honestly even after this
+     * check has passed.
+     */
+    @Override
+    public void requireSlotFor(MemberRole role, String profile) {
+        if (role != MemberRole.ARCHITECT) {
+            return;
+        }
+        boolean hasSlot = slotsFor(MemberRole.ARCHITECT).values().stream()
+                .anyMatch(e -> Objects.equals(profile, e.profile()));
+        if (hasSlot) {
+            return;
+        }
+        List<String> pools = slotsFor(MemberRole.ARCHITECT).values().stream()
+                .map(Entry::profile)
+                .distinct()
+                .toList();
+        throw new IllegalArgumentException(
+                "no " + role.wireName() + " slot for profile '" + profile + "' — an architect's "
+                        + "identity IS the slot it is bound to, so there is nothing to bind this "
+                        + "session's identity to. fleet." + role.configKey() + " carries profiles: "
+                        + (pools.isEmpty() ? "(none configured)" : String.join(", ", pools))
+                        + "; add profile '" + profile + "' there, or spawn " + role.wireName()
+                        + " on one of those profiles instead");
+    }
+
+    @Override
+    public SlotReservation reserve(MemberRole role, String profile) {
+        if (role != MemberRole.ARCHITECT) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        synchronized (terminalToSlot) {
+            for (Entry entry : slotsFor(MemberRole.ARCHITECT).values()) {
+                if ((profile == null || profile.isBlank() || Objects.equals(profile, entry.profile()))
+                        && !terminalToSlot.containsValue(entry.key()) && reservedSlots.add(entry.key())) {
+                    return new SlotReservation(entry.key(), entry.profile());
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        throw new IllegalArgumentException("no free architect slot for profile '" + profile
+                + "' — every matching slot is already bound or reserved");
+    }
+
+    @Override
+    public boolean bind(SlotReservation reservation, String terminal) {
+        if (reservation == null || terminal == null || terminal.isBlank()) {
+            return false;
+        }
+        synchronized (terminalToSlot) {
+            if (!reservedSlots.remove(reservation.slot())) {
+                return false;
+            }
+            if (!isSlot(reservation.slot()) || terminalToSlot.containsKey(terminal)
+                    || terminalToSlot.containsValue(reservation.slot())) {
+                return false;
+            }
+            terminalToSlot.put(terminal, reservation.slot());
+            return true;
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Override
+    public void release(SlotReservation reservation) {
+        if (reservation != null) {
+            synchronized (terminalToSlot) {
+                reservedSlots.remove(reservation.slot());
             }
         }
-        log.info("member slot: no free architect slot for profile={}; session remains a worker", profile);
     }
 
     /** Unbind a released terminal using the compare-safe registry operation. */

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRef.java

@@ -43,7 +43,9 @@ import java.util.function.Supplier;
  *       which is constructed once), <em>and an existing profile's launch settings</em> —
  *       {@code model}, {@code baseUrl}, {@code argv}, {@code env}, {@code mcpUrl},
  *       {@code exhaustedPattern} (CB-578 stage A — compiled once into {@code Fleetd.main}'s
- *       pattern map at startup), and the rest. {@code credentialId} (CB-578 stage B) is NOT on
+ *       pattern map at startup), {@code errorPattern} (fleetd #201 Unit 5 — compiled once into
+ *       {@code Fleetd.main}'s backend-error pattern map at startup, the same way), and the rest.
+ *       {@code credentialId} (CB-578 stage B) is NOT on
  *       this list — it is read live off the config supplier at every quarantine check and
  *       exhaustion event, exactly like {@code weight} / {@code maxLoad}, so it is hot instead.
  *       {@code HerdrPeerLauncher} takes {@code Map.copyOf(profiles)} at construction and resolves
@@ -292,6 +294,10 @@ public final class ConfigRef implements Supplier<FleetConfig> {
                 // CB-578 stage B: exhaustedPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's pattern map
                 // at startup (see ExhaustedPatternLookup wiring) — a reload never re-reads it, so a
                 // changed pattern must be reported as deferred, exactly like model/baseUrl/argv.
-                && Objects.equals(a.exhaustedPattern(), b.exhaustedPattern());
+                && Objects.equals(a.exhaustedPattern(), b.exhaustedPattern())
+                // fleetd #201 Unit 5: errorPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's backend-error
+                // pattern map at startup (see BackendErrorPatternLookup wiring), the same way
+                // exhaustedPattern is — a reload never re-reads it either.
+                && Objects.equals(a.errorPattern(), b.errorPattern());
     }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfig.java

@@ -24,6 +24,8 @@ import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+import java.util.regex.PatternSyntaxException;
 
 /**
  * {@code fleetd} configuration, loaded from a YAML file (see
@@ -90,9 +92,15 @@ import java.util.Set;
  *                      fleetd's own process, so fleetd's own {@code $SHELL} says nothing about what
  *                      that pane runs. There is no channel to ask herdr for another user's shell, so
  *                      this must be told, never guessed. {@code null}/blank (or a value not ending
- *                      in {@code zsh}) is treated the same as "not zsh": the {@code
- *                      memberCredentials.policy: allow-list} ZDOTDIR scrub is skipped in favour of
- *                      the CB-596 sentinel overlay — a degraded control, never a refusal to spawn.
+ *                      in {@code zsh}) is treated the same as "not zsh". fleetd #155: what that means
+ *                      now depends on {@code memberCredentials.policy}. Under {@code deny-by-default}
+ *                      it stays a degraded control, never a refusal to spawn — the pane-creation
+ *                      overlay is unaffected by shell type, so the spawn proceeds with a WARN naming
+ *                      the shell. Under {@code allow-list} the spawn is REFUSED instead: that policy's
+ *                      whole point is a control a sourced file cannot undo, so silently falling back
+ *                      to the weaker overlay would be the same "control silently does nothing" defect
+ *                      #155 exists to remove — configure this field (or move the account to zsh, or
+ *                      switch policy back to {@code deny-by-default}) to unblock the spawn.
  *                      When {@code memberHerdrSocket} is NOT configured this field is never
  *                      consulted at all; fleetd keeps reading its own {@code $SHELL}, exactly as
  *                      before this field existed.
@@ -240,7 +248,8 @@ public record FleetConfig(
      * @param configDir {@code CLAUDE_CONFIG_DIR} so the worker inherits the profile's
      *                  skills/MCP/hooks (may be {@code null})
      * @param tokenEnv  name of the host env var holding the worker's auth token; its value
-     *                  is injected as {@code ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN} (never stored in config)
+     *                  is injected as {@code ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN} (never stored in config).
+     *                  {@code null}/blank means this profile needs no token.
      * @param argv      launch command; defaults to {@code ["claude"]}
      * @param placement where a worker lands: {@code "tab"} (default — its own tab in the
      *                  worker space) or {@code "pane"} (legacy — split the focused tab)
@@ -256,7 +265,13 @@ public record FleetConfig(
      * @param cwd            fixed working directory for this profile's workers (CB-112 "told otherwise");
      *                       {@code null}/blank → inherit the primary's cwd, else the daemon's
      * @param parityOverlay  repo-relative paths copied primary→worktree for config parity; null/empty
-     *                       defaults to a sensible set of local config files.
+     *                       defaults to {@code [.env]} only (CB-148 point 2). {@code .env} is data — a
+     *                       copy of it can only carry values. {@code .envrc} is executable shell that
+     *                       {@code direnv} evaluates on every {@code cd}, so copying it moves behaviour
+     *                       into the worker, not just values, and that is a different risk from copying
+     *                       data. It is deliberately left out of the default for that reason. The knob
+     *                       still supports it: an operator who wants it copied writes
+     *                       {@code parityOverlay: [.env, .envrc]} explicitly and owns that choice.
      *                       <p><strong>Every overlay path must be gitignored or tracked-and-skipped.</strong>
      *                       CB-576 made {@code release()} preserve a worktree that {@code git status
      *                       --porcelain} reports as dirty, and it deliberately counts untracked files —
@@ -266,11 +281,10 @@ public record FleetConfig(
      *                       worktrees then accumulate with no error anywhere.
      *                       <p>Checked on 2026-08-15 (CB-581): inert as configured. Tracked overlay
      *                       files carry {@code --skip-worktree} so {@code --porcelain} cannot see them,
-     *                       {@code fleetd.yaml} is gitignored, and the default pair {@code .env} /
-     *                       {@code .envrc} does not exist in this repo. Note the default applies to
-     *                       <em>every</em> profile, so creating either file at the repo root is enough
-     *                       to make it live. Add a new overlay path to {@code .gitignore} in the same
-     *                       change that adds it here.
+     *                       {@code fleetd.yaml} is gitignored, and {@code .env} does not exist in this
+     *                       repo. Note the default applies to <em>every</em> profile, so creating
+     *                       {@code .env} at the repo root is enough to make it live. Add a new overlay
+     *                       path to {@code .gitignore} in the same change that adds it here.
      *                       <p>CB-578 stage C raised the stakes: a preserved dirty worktree is now also
      *                       committed to {@code refs/wip/<branch>} via {@code git add -A}. The overlay
      *                       carries the primary's own environment files into the worktree, so a
@@ -355,6 +369,16 @@ public record FleetConfig(
      *                       {@code limit.context} instead, which bounds the window opencode compacts
      *                       <em>within</em>, and only when {@code model} resolves to a
      *                       {@code provider/model} pair.
+     * @param errorPattern   regex matched against a completion-fallback scrape (fleetd #201 Unit 5)
+     *                       to classify a turn that ended with no {@code fleet_reply} as a backend
+     *                       error (credential outage, provider 5xx) rather than a real answer or an
+     *                       exhausted usage limit. {@code null}/blank ⇒ this profile relies on
+     *                       {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver}'s built-in
+     *                       {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:} compatibility pattern instead — classification
+     *                       still happens, just without a profile-specific match (reported separately
+     *                       at startup as legacy-default coverage, never full coverage). Compiled once
+     *                       at startup ({@code Fleetd.main}), like {@code exhaustedPattern}, so a
+     *                       reload of this key is DEFERRED (see {@code ConfigRef}).
      */
     @JsonIgnoreProperties(ignoreUnknown = true)
     public record Profile(String profile, String baseUrl, String model,
@@ -373,7 +397,8 @@ public record FleetConfig(
                          String ideMcpUrl,
                          String ideProjectDir,
                          String ideOpenCommand,
-                         Integer autoCompactWindow) {
+                         Integer autoCompactWindow,
+                         String errorPattern) {
 
         /** Peer kind spawned by {@link dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher} (the default). */
         public static final String KIND_CLAUDE_CODE = "claude-code";
@@ -389,7 +414,7 @@ public record FleetConfig(
                     ? (KIND_CLAUDE_CODE.equals(k) ? List.of("claude") : List.of(k))
                     : List.copyOf(argv);
             kind = k;
-            tokenEnv = (tokenEnv == null || tokenEnv.isBlank()) ? "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN" : tokenEnv;
+            tokenEnv = (tokenEnv == null || tokenEnv.isBlank()) ? null : tokenEnv;
             placement = (placement == null || placement.isBlank()) ? "tab" : placement.toLowerCase();
             workspace = (workspace == null || workspace.isBlank()) ? "fleet" : workspace;
             // CB-557: no per-profile default any more. A label is generated from the member's ROLE
@@ -407,7 +432,7 @@ public record FleetConfig(
             // servers do not exist there to be enabled. This is defence in depth, not a live fix: the
             // worker stays isolated only because this separate mechanism already removes the servers.
             parityOverlay = (parityOverlay == null || parityOverlay.isEmpty())
-                    ? List.of(".env", ".envrc")
+                    ? List.of(".env")
                     : List.copyOf(parityOverlay);
             // gitTokenEnv stays null when unset (opt-in). gitHostEnv defaults so operators enabling
             // checkpoints need only set gitTokenEnv; it is injected only alongside a resolved token.
@@ -447,6 +472,32 @@ public record FleetConfig(
             // there is no blank-string form to normalize (it's an Integer), and the [100000, 1000000]
             // range is enforced eagerly at config load (rejectAutoCompactWindowOutOfRange), naming the
             // profile, rather than silently clamped here. A profile that never sets it keeps null.
+            // errorPattern stays null when unset/blank (opt-in) — same rule as exhaustedPattern: no
+            // defaulting, no vendor wording. A profile that never sets it relies on
+            // CompletionResolver's built-in compatibility pattern instead (never "off").
+            errorPattern = (errorPattern == null || errorPattern.isBlank()) ? null : errorPattern;
+        }
+
+        /**
+         * Backward-compatible constructor without the fleetd #201 {@code errorPattern} field — the
+         * profile relies on {@code CompletionResolver}'s built-in compatibility pattern instead
+         * (legacy-default coverage). This is the shape the canonical constructor had before the
+         * field was added; every pre-existing Java call site (and any YAML that omits the key) keeps
+         * compiling and behaving identically. Jackson binds the canonical (longest) constructor, so
+         * YAML omitting {@code errorPattern:} still lands here as {@code null} via that path too.
+         */
+        public Profile(String profile, String baseUrl, String model,
+                      String configDir, String tokenEnv, List<String> argv,
+                      String placement, String workspace, String tabLabel, String mcpUrl,
+                      String cwd, List<String> parityOverlay, String gitTokenEnv, String gitHostEnv,
+                      String kind, Map<String, String> env, Float weight, Integer maxLoad,
+                      Boolean subscription, String exhaustedPattern, String credentialId,
+                      String ideMcpUrl, String ideProjectDir, String ideOpenCommand,
+                      Integer autoCompactWindow) {
+            this(profile, baseUrl, model, configDir, tokenEnv, argv, placement, workspace, tabLabel,
+                    mcpUrl, cwd, parityOverlay, gitTokenEnv, gitHostEnv, kind, env, weight, maxLoad,
+                    subscription, exhaustedPattern, credentialId, ideMcpUrl, ideProjectDir, ideOpenCommand,
+                    autoCompactWindow, null);
         }
 
         /**
@@ -491,7 +542,8 @@ public record FleetConfig(
         public Profile withProfile(String p) {
             return new Profile(p, baseUrl, model, configDir, tokenEnv, argv, placement, workspace, tabLabel,
                     mcpUrl, cwd, parityOverlay, gitTokenEnv, gitHostEnv, kind, env, weight, maxLoad, subscription,
-                    exhaustedPattern, credentialId, ideMcpUrl, ideProjectDir, ideOpenCommand, autoCompactWindow);
+                    exhaustedPattern, credentialId, ideMcpUrl, ideProjectDir, ideOpenCommand, autoCompactWindow,
+                    errorPattern);
         }
 
         /**
@@ -589,14 +641,55 @@ public record FleetConfig(
         }
 
         /**
-         * The credential group this profile quarantines with (CB-578 stage B): the configured
-         * {@link #credentialId} when set, else this profile's own name — so an unconfigured profile
-         * quarantines alone, exactly as it did before this field existed. Two profiles that set the
-         * same non-blank {@code credentialId} share one quarantine: a {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED}
-         * classification on either one quarantines both.
+         * True when this profile configures its own fleetd #201 Unit 5 backend-error classification
+         * pattern. {@code false} means this profile relies on {@code CompletionResolver}'s built-in
+         * {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:} compatibility pattern instead (legacy-default coverage).
+         */
+        public boolean hasErrorPattern() {
+            return errorPattern != null;
+        }
+
+        /**
+         * The shared credential id every {@code subscription: true} profile falls back to when it
+         * sets no explicit {@link #credentialId} (fleetd #176 stage 2, correcting an inert first cut
+         * of that ticket). A subscription profile has no credential of its own to fall back to its
+         * name for: it authenticates as the operator's own Claude login, and a host has exactly one
+         * of those, whatever names the operator gives the profiles running on it. Falling back to the
+         * profile's own name (the way an ordinary off-subscription profile does) would keep two
+         * subscription profiles on one login apart from each other, which is the opposite of what
+         * "one account" means.
+         *
+         * <p>Measured live and what it broke: a lead on profile {@code opus}, members on profile
+         * {@code sonnet}, same Claude login, neither setting {@code credentialId}. Before this
+         * sentinel, {@code opus.effectiveCredentialId()} was {@code "opus"} and {@code sonnet
+         * .effectiveCredentialId()} was {@code "sonnet"} — so fleetd #176's lead-seat matcher (and,
+         * this sentinel now also fixes, {@code CompositePeerLauncher}'s quarantine/cool-off spawn
+         * refusal and {@code BackendOutagePolicy}'s incident grouping) silently never linked them: the
+         * fix shipped, and stayed inert on the one host it was written for.
+         */
+        public static final String SUBSCRIPTION_CREDENTIAL_ID = "<subscription>";
+
+        /**
+         * The credential group this profile quarantines with (CB-578 stage B; extended fleetd #176
+         * stage 2 — see {@link #SUBSCRIPTION_CREDENTIAL_ID}): the configured {@link #credentialId}
+         * when set — that always wins, so an operator with two separate Claude logins on one host can
+         * still keep them apart. Otherwise, a {@code subscription: true} profile falls back to
+         * {@link #SUBSCRIPTION_CREDENTIAL_ID} rather than its own name; an ordinary off-subscription
+         * profile falls back to its own name, exactly as it did before this field existed, so an
+         * unconfigured off-subscription profile still quarantines alone.
+         *
+         * <p>A {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED} (or repeated backend-error) classification on any profile
+         * sharing the result quarantines/cools off every profile that shares it — including, now,
+         * every {@code subscription: true} profile with no explicit {@code credentialId}. That is
+         * intended, not incidental: one Claude subscription hitting a usage limit really does take out
+         * every profile running on it, the same way {@code credentialId: openai-shared} already lets
+         * two OpenAI-backed profiles share one quarantine.
          */
         public String effectiveCredentialId() {
-            return (credentialId == null || credentialId.isBlank()) ? profile : credentialId;
+            if (credentialId != null && !credentialId.isBlank()) {
+                return credentialId;
+            }
+            return isSubscription() ? SUBSCRIPTION_CREDENTIAL_ID : profile;
         }
 
         /** True when this profile's workers are granted a forge token to open their own PR (CB-302). */
@@ -604,6 +697,11 @@ public record FleetConfig(
             return gitTokenEnv != null && !gitTokenEnv.isBlank();
         }
 
+        /** True when this profile explicitly names a host token environment variable. */
+        public boolean hasTokenEnv() {
+            return tokenEnv != null && !tokenEnv.isBlank();
+        }
+
         /**
          * True when this profile's {@code env:} block names a worker-side Anthropic binding variable.
          * Those two keys are the adapter's, never the operator's: on a claude-code worker
@@ -886,7 +984,15 @@ public record FleetConfig(
      * survives restarts of the agent inside it — so identity is now the tab label alone.
      *
      * @param profile             the {@code profiles:} entry to launch this lead on when one must
-     *                            be created; {@code null} ⇒ recognise-only, never create
+     *                            be created; {@code null} ⇒ recognise-only, never create.
+     *                            <p>fleetd #176: also the field {@code Fleetd.leadSeatLookup} reads
+     *                            to learn which account this lead's own live session shares — set it
+     *                            (safely, even on an already-running recognise-only lead: naming a
+     *                            profile here never starts anything beyond {@code instances}) so a
+     *                            {@code subscription: true} worker profile sharing its
+     *                            {@code effectiveCredentialId()} has this lead's seat subtracted from
+     *                            {@code fleet_list}'s {@code free}. {@code null} here also means this
+     *                            lead's seat cannot be derived and is not counted.
      * @param tab                 the exact tab label hosting this lead, matched case-insensitively;
      *                            the only field identity depends on. Required — a lead with no
      *                            {@code tab} can never be discovered, launched or not
@@ -1383,6 +1489,7 @@ public record FleetConfig(
             rejectDuplicateMemberSlots(yaml);
             rejectNegativeMaxLoad(yaml);
             rejectAutoCompactWindowOutOfRange(yaml);
+            rejectMalformedErrorPattern(yaml);
             rejectUnknownKind(yaml);
             rejectUnknownAuthMode(yaml);
             rejectUnknownPlacement(yaml);
@@ -1731,6 +1838,51 @@ public record FleetConfig(
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Reject a profile whose {@code errorPattern} (fleetd #201 Unit 5) is not a valid Java regex,
+     * naming the profile, the key, and the parser's own message.
+     *
+     * <p>Unset/{@code null} means "use {@code CompletionResolver}'s built-in {@code (?i)\bAPI
+     * Error\s*:} compatibility pattern" and passes silently. A profile that DOES set the key gets it
+     * compiled once at daemon startup ({@code Fleetd.main}, mirroring {@code exhaustedPattern}) — an
+     * uncaught {@link java.util.regex.PatternSyntaxException} there crashes startup without naming
+     * which profile or key is at fault. Validate eagerly here instead, at config load, the same
+     * "fail loud at load, not lazily later" reasoning as {@link #rejectAutoCompactWindowOutOfRange}.
+     *
+     * @param yaml the raw config text
+     * @throws IllegalStateException when any profile's {@code errorPattern} fails to compile
+     */
+    static void rejectMalformedErrorPattern(String yaml) {
+        Map<?, ?> raw;
+        try {
+            raw = YAML.readValue(yaml, Map.class);
+        } catch (IOException | IllegalArgumentException e) {
+            return; // a malformed file is reported by the real parse, not here
+        }
+        if (raw == null || !(raw.get("profiles") instanceof Map<?, ?> profiles)) {
+            return;
+        }
+        List<String> bad = new ArrayList<>();
+        for (Map.Entry<?, ?> e : profiles.entrySet()) {
+            if (!(e.getValue() instanceof Map<?, ?> p)) {
+                continue;
+            }
+            if (!(p.get("errorPattern") instanceof String pattern) || pattern.isBlank()) {
+                continue;
+            }
+            try {
+                Pattern.compile(pattern);
+            } catch (PatternSyntaxException ex) {
+                bad.add("profiles." + e.getKey() + ".errorPattern (\"" + pattern + "\"): " + ex.getMessage());
+            }
+        }
+        bad.sort(String::compareTo);
+        if (!bad.isEmpty()) {
+            throw new IllegalStateException("refusing to start: malformed errorPattern — "
+                    + String.join("; ", bad));
+        }
+    }
+
     /** The peer kinds this build has an adapter for — {@link Profile#kind()}'s only valid values. */
     private static final Set<String> KNOWN_KINDS = Set.of(Profile.KIND_CLAUDE_CODE, Profile.KIND_OPENCODE);
 

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/BackendErrorPatternLookup.java

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
+
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
+/**
+ * Per-target lookup for a profile's configured backend-error pattern (fleetd#201 / #227): how
+ * {@link CompletionResolver} recognizes a backend that failed a turn outright (a credential
+ * outage, a provider 5xx) from whatever ends up on the member's pane, apart from a genuine
+ * completion.
+ *
+ * <p>The pattern is always profile config, never a vendor string in Java source: every backend
+ * words its failure differently, so a hardcoded sentence would only ever match one of them. A
+ * target with no configured pattern is not "off" the way {@link ExhaustedPatternLookup#none()}
+ * is — {@link CompletionResolver} falls back to its narrow {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:}
+ * compatibility pattern instead, so classification still happens, just without a profile-specific
+ * match. {@link #legacy()} is the explicit stand-in existing (pre-fleetd#201) callers pass to get
+ * exactly that fallback-only behavior until a caller wires a real, profile-driven lookup
+ * (fleetd#201 Unit 5).
+ */
+@FunctionalInterface
+public interface BackendErrorPatternLookup {
+
+    /** The compiled pattern configured for {@code target}'s profile, or {@code null} if none. */
+    Pattern patternFor(String target);
+
+    /**
+     * Legacy lookup — no profile has a configured pattern, so {@link CompletionResolver} classifies
+     * every target using only its built-in {@code (?i)\bAPI Error\s*:} compatibility pattern. The
+     * explicit stand-in existing constructors pass so their behavior is unchanged until a caller
+     * wires a real, profile-driven lookup.
+     */
+    static BackendErrorPatternLookup legacy() {
+        return target -> null;
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/BackendErrorSink.java

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
+
+/**
+ * Notified when {@link CompletionResolver} actually delivers a typed backend-error classification
+ * to a waiting send (fleetd#201 / #227) — never on a race that lost. {@link CompletionResolver}
+ * calls this only after {@code Rendezvous.resolveFailure} returns {@code true} for that exact
+ * waiter, mirroring the win-only race rule {@link ExhaustionSink} already uses.
+ *
+ * <p>The public send result is unchanged by this classification — it is still a failed send
+ * ({@code Rendezvous.Kind#FAILED}); this sink is the internal seam a later stage (fleetd#201 Unit
+ * 5, the policy that cools a credential off after two such failures in 60 seconds and tells the
+ * lead) consumes. {@link CompletionResolver} knows only {@code target} (a herdr terminal id); it
+ * has no notion of profiles or credentials, so mapping {@code target} to whatever should be
+ * quarantined is entirely the sink's job — exactly like {@link ExhaustionSink}.
+ */
+@FunctionalInterface
+public interface BackendErrorSink {
+
+    /**
+     * @param target      the herdr terminal id whose turn was classified as a backend error
+     * @param matchedLine the single pane line that matched the backend-error pattern
+     * @param reason      the full failure reason carried by the classification (the matched line
+     *                    plus whatever pane context the classifying path attaches)
+     */
+    void onBackendError(String target, String matchedLine, String reason);
+
+    /**
+     * Inert sink — nothing happens on a backend-error classification. The explicit stand-in a
+     * caller (or a test not exercising this feature) passes instead of a defaulting overload,
+     * exactly like {@link ExhaustionSink#none()}.
+     */
+    static BackendErrorSink none() {
+        return (target, matchedLine, reason) -> { };
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/CompletionResolver.java

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import java.util.TreeSet;
 import java.util.concurrent.CompletableFuture;
 import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
 import java.util.function.LongSupplier;
+import java.util.function.Function;
 import java.util.regex.Pattern;
 
 /**
@@ -85,11 +86,29 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
     private static final String CLIPPED_PANE_TAIL_MARKER =
             "[Pane tail clipped: member did not call fleet_reply.]";
 
+    /** A pane echo must be this large before it can replace a completion report. */
+    static final int ECHO_MIN_CHARS = 400;
+
+    /** Normalised TUI chrome may add this many characters to an otherwise echoed brief. */
+    static final int MAX_ECHO_EXCESS_CHARS = 160;
+
+    /** The explicit result returned instead of a lead's echoed injected brief. */
+    public static final String NO_REPORT_PREFIX = "[no report — the member ended its turn without fleet_reply, "
+            + "and the pane still shows the injected brief. Nothing was produced on the pane. Check the "
+            + "member's worktree and branch for committed work before re-delegating.";
+
     private final AgentControl agents;
     private final Rendezvous rendezvous;
     private final ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns;
     private final ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink;
+    private final BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatterns;
+    private final BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink;
     private final LongSupplier nowNanos;
+    private final Function<String, WorktreeBranch> worktreeBranches;
+
+    /** Known member location, used only to guide a lead after an echoed brief. */
+    public record WorktreeBranch(String worktree, String branch) {
+    }
 
     /**
      * Per-target record of the turn currently in flight: the exact {@link Rendezvous} waiter its
@@ -106,7 +125,8 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
      * the other half of the {@link #MIN_TURN_NANOS} floor check, compared against a fresh reading at
      * resolution time.
      */
-    record InFlight(CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter, String baseline, long deliveredAtNanos) {
+    record InFlight(CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter, String baseline, long deliveredAtNanos,
+                    String injectedText) {
 
         /**
          * Convenience for tests exercising scrape/suppression logic that don't care about turn
@@ -114,7 +134,11 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
          * Not used by production code — {@link #captureBaseline} always records a real reading.
          */
         InFlight(CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter, String baseline) {
-            this(waiter, baseline, Long.MIN_VALUE / 2);
+            this(waiter, baseline, Long.MIN_VALUE / 2, null);
+        }
+
+        InFlight(CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter, String baseline, long deliveredAtNanos) {
+            this(waiter, baseline, deliveredAtNanos, null);
         }
     }
 
@@ -129,10 +153,55 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
      *                          classification actually resolves a waiter. Required for the same
      *                          reason as {@code exhaustedPatterns} — pass {@link ExhaustionSink#none()}
      *                          to opt out.
+     *
+     * <p>Transition constructor (fleetd#201 Unit 1): delegates to the full constructor below with
+     * {@link BackendErrorPatternLookup#legacy()} and {@link BackendErrorSink#none()}, so every
+     * existing caller keeps today's behavior — the narrow built-in {@code API Error:} match, no
+     * sink notified — until a caller wires a real, profile-driven backend-error lookup and sink
+     * (fleetd#201 Unit 5).
      */
     public CompletionResolver(AgentControl agents, Rendezvous rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns,
-                              ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink) {
-        this(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink, System::nanoTime);
+                               ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink) {
+        this(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink,
+                BackendErrorPatternLookup.legacy(), BackendErrorSink.none(), System::nanoTime);
+    }
+
+    /** Production constructor with a lookup for the member worktree and branch. */
+    public CompletionResolver(AgentControl agents, Rendezvous rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns,
+                              ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink, Function<String, WorktreeBranch> worktreeBranches) {
+        this(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink,
+                BackendErrorPatternLookup.legacy(), BackendErrorSink.none(), System::nanoTime, worktreeBranches);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Transition constructor (fleetd#201 Unit 1): same legacy backend-error defaults as the 4-arg
+     * constructor above, but with the injectable clock. Kept so existing fleetd#164 timing tests
+     * (and any other caller that wants a controllable clock but not the backend-error feature)
+     * keep compiling unchanged.
+     */
+    public CompletionResolver(AgentControl agents, Rendezvous rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns,
+                       ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink, LongSupplier nowNanos) {
+        this(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink,
+                BackendErrorPatternLookup.legacy(), BackendErrorSink.none(), nowNanos);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Production constructor (fleetd#201 Unit 1): adds the target-keyed backend-error pattern
+     * lookup and sink alongside the existing exhaustion pair. Required, like {@code exhaustedPatterns}
+     * and {@code exhaustionSink} — pass {@link BackendErrorPatternLookup#legacy()} and
+     * {@link BackendErrorSink#none()} to opt out.
+     *
+     * @param backendErrorPatterns fleetd#201: per-target lookup for a profile's configured
+     *                             backend-error pattern; a target with none configured is matched
+     *                             against the built-in compatibility pattern instead (never "off").
+     * @param backendErrorSink     fleetd#201: notified when a backend-error classification actually
+     *                             resolves a waiter — never on a race that lost.
+     */
+    public CompletionResolver(AgentControl agents, Rendezvous rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns,
+                       ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink, BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatterns,
+                       BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink) {
+        this(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink, backendErrorPatterns, backendErrorSink,
+                System::nanoTime, _ -> null);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -145,12 +214,25 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
      * package.
      */
     public CompletionResolver(AgentControl agents, Rendezvous rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns,
-                       ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink, LongSupplier nowNanos) {
+                        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink, BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatterns,
+                        BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink, LongSupplier nowNanos) {
+        this(agents, rendezvous, exhaustedPatterns, exhaustionSink, backendErrorPatterns, backendErrorSink,
+                nowNanos, _ -> null);
+    }
+
+    /** Full constructor with injectable clock and member location lookup. */
+    public CompletionResolver(AgentControl agents, Rendezvous rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup exhaustedPatterns,
+                        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink, BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatterns,
+                        BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink, LongSupplier nowNanos,
+                        Function<String, WorktreeBranch> worktreeBranches) {
         this.agents = agents;
         this.rendezvous = rendezvous;
         this.exhaustedPatterns = Objects.requireNonNull(exhaustedPatterns, "exhaustedPatterns");
         this.exhaustionSink = Objects.requireNonNull(exhaustionSink, "exhaustionSink");
+        this.backendErrorPatterns = Objects.requireNonNull(backendErrorPatterns, "backendErrorPatterns");
+        this.backendErrorSink = Objects.requireNonNull(backendErrorSink, "backendErrorSink");
         this.nowNanos = Objects.requireNonNull(nowNanos, "nowNanos");
+        this.worktreeBranches = Objects.requireNonNull(worktreeBranches, "worktreeBranches");
     }
 
     @Override
@@ -180,7 +262,7 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
             baseline = null; // fail open: no baseline ⇒ no suppression
             log.debug("delivery baseline for {} failed: {}", target, e.getMessage());
         }
-        inFlight.put(target, new InFlight(waiter, baseline, nowNanos.getAsLong()));
+        inFlight.put(target, new InFlight(waiter, baseline, nowNanos.getAsLong(), token.injectedText()));
     }
 
     /** The turn currently baselined for {@code target}, or {@code null} — a test hook for the captureBaseline path. */
@@ -232,16 +314,18 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
         // screen, since that is usually the backend's own error.
         long elapsedNanos = nowNanos.getAsLong() - turn.deliveredAtNanos();
         if (elapsedNanos < MIN_TURN_NANOS) {
-            fail(target, turn, tooFastReason(target, elapsedNanos));
+            failTooFast(target, turn, waiter, elapsedNanos);
             return;
         }
         String tail;
         String assistantBlock = null;
+        String rawScrape = null;
         int originalLength = 0;
         boolean clipped = false;
         boolean scrapeFailed = false;
         try {
-            assistantBlock = lastAssistantBlock(agents.read(target, SCRAPE_SOURCE));
+            rawScrape = agents.read(target, SCRAPE_SOURCE);
+            assistantBlock = lastAssistantBlock(rawScrape);
             originalLength = assistantBlock.strip().length();
             clipped = originalLength > MAX_SCRAPE_CHARS;
             tail = clip(assistantBlock);
@@ -256,6 +340,20 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
         // member, so a caller (including a lead deciding whether to delegate again) can tell a lost
         // turn from a real empty answer.
         if (scrapeFailed || tail.isEmpty()) {
+            // fleetd#211: lastAssistantBlock() found nothing usable — most often a pane with no ⏺
+            // marker at all, whose boundary scan then starts at the top of the raw screen and breaks
+            // immediately on the first line of TUI chrome (╭, │, ❯, …). Before giving up as a lost
+            // turn, run the same exhaustion/backend-error classification against the RAW scrape as a
+            // fallback, ONLY here. A pane that already yielded a usable block never reaches this
+            // branch, so the narrow (trimmed) match on the normal path below is completely unchanged
+            // — zero new false positives there. Every pane this fallback examines was already headed
+            // for the empty-scrape failure, so a wrong label here is strictly less bad than silently
+            // losing an exhaustion signal: the alternative outcome is already a failure, just one that
+            // never quarantines the credential. lastAssistantBlock stays the source of the reply
+            // TEXT everywhere else; only classification ever consults the raw scrape, and only here.
+            if (rawScrape != null && classifyRawScrapeFallback(target, turn, waiter, rawScrape)) {
+                return;
+            }
             fail(target, turn, emptyScrapeReason(target, scrapeFailed));
             return;
         }
@@ -286,21 +384,33 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
             }
             return;
         }
-        // fleetd#164 (part 2): a scrape that read cleanly and produced content still isn't a real
-        // reply when that content is the backend's own rejection (e.g. an HTTP 400 before the worker
-        // did any work). Classify it as a failure naming the member, rather than handing the caller a
-        // scrape that reads like a completed answer.
-        String backendError = firstMatchingLine(assistantBlock, BACKEND_ERROR);
+        // fleetd#164 (part 2) / fleetd#201: a scrape that read cleanly and produced content still
+        // isn't a real reply when that content is the backend's own rejection (e.g. an HTTP 400
+        // before the worker did any work). Classify it as a failure naming the member, rather than
+        // handing the caller a scrape that reads like a completed answer, and — only on the
+        // resolution that actually wins the race, mirroring the exhaustion sink above — notify the
+        // typed backend-error sink so a later stage can act on repeated failures.
+        String backendError = firstMatchingLine(assistantBlock, backendErrorPatternOrFallback(target));
         if (backendError != null) {
             // Carry the whole scrape, not just the matched line. The pattern is a heuristic: a member
             // that forgot fleet_reply while reporting *about* a backend error matches it too. Failing
             // is still right — the caller must not read a scrape as an answer — but dropping the rest
             // of the pane would destroy the report, which is the same defect fleetd#164 is about.
-            fail(target, turn, "member " + target + " ended on a backend error: " + backendError
-                    + "\n--- pane tail ---\n" + tail);
+            String reason = "member " + target + " ended on a backend error: " + backendError
+                    + "\n--- pane tail ---\n" + tail;
+            if (rendezvous.resolveFailure(waiter, reason)) {
+                inFlight.remove(target, turn);
+                log.warn("failing send to {} via turn-stall fallback: {}", target, reason);
+                // fleetd#201 Unit 1: only on the resolution that actually won the race — a late
+                // duplicate must never double-count one backend failure.
+                backendErrorSink.onBackendError(target, backendError, reason);
+            }
             return;
         }
         String completion = clipped ? tail + "\n" + CLIPPED_PANE_TAIL_MARKER : tail;
+        if (echoesInjectedBrief(tail, turn.injectedText())) {
+            completion = noReportMessage(target) + (clipped ? "\n" + CLIPPED_PANE_TAIL_MARKER : "");
+        }
         if (rendezvous.resolveCompletion(waiter, completion)) {
             inFlight.remove(target, turn);
             if (clipped) {
@@ -313,6 +423,83 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * A full echoed brief is at least 400 normalised characters. A scrape that contains the brief may
+     * add no more than 160 normalised characters of TUI chrome. This accepts harmless status text, but
+     * preserves a real report that restates the full brief before adding substantive content.
+     */
+    static boolean echoesInjectedBrief(String scrape, String injectedText) {
+        String normalScrape = normalize(scrape);
+        String normalInjected = normalize(injectedText);
+        if (normalScrape.length() < ECHO_MIN_CHARS || normalInjected.length() < ECHO_MIN_CHARS) {
+            return false;
+        }
+        if (normalInjected.contains(normalScrape)) {
+            return true;
+        }
+        return normalScrape.contains(normalInjected)
+                && normalScrape.length() - normalInjected.length() <= MAX_ECHO_EXCESS_CHARS;
+    }
+
+    private static String normalize(String text) {
+        return text == null ? "" : text.toLowerCase().replaceAll("[^a-z0-9]+", "");
+    }
+
+    private String noReportMessage(String target) {
+        WorktreeBranch location = worktreeBranches.apply(target);
+        if (location == null || (location.worktree() == null && location.branch() == null)) {
+            return NO_REPORT_PREFIX + "]";
+        }
+        String locationText = location.worktree() == null ? "" : " worktree=" + location.worktree();
+        if (location.branch() != null) {
+            locationText += " branch=" + location.branch();
+        }
+        return NO_REPORT_PREFIX + locationText + "]";
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd#211: the raw-scrape fallback classification, run only when {@link #lastAssistantBlock}
+     * found nothing usable (see the call site in {@link #resolve}). Mirrors the two classifications
+     * the normal path already applies to the trimmed assistant block — exhaustion first, then the
+     * narrow {@link #BACKEND_ERROR} pattern — against {@code raw} instead, and reports whether one of
+     * them handled the turn (resolved the waiter or failed it) so the caller skips the empty-scrape
+     * failure. Never runs on the normal (non-empty-block) path, and never touches the reply text.
+     */
+    private boolean classifyRawScrapeFallback(String target, InFlight turn,
+                                               CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter, String raw) {
+        Pattern exhausted = exhaustedPatterns.patternFor(target);
+        String matchedLine = exhausted == null ? null : firstMatchingLine(raw, exhausted);
+        if (matchedLine != null) {
+            String reason = "backend exhausted (usage limit): " + matchedLine;
+            if (rendezvous.resolveExhausted(waiter, reason)) {
+                inFlight.remove(target, turn);
+                log.warn("completion for {} classified BACKEND_EXHAUSTED from the raw scrape (no "
+                        + "usable assistant block; no fleet_reply): {}", target, reason);
+                // CB-578 stage B: only on the resolution that actually won the race — a late
+                // duplicate must never quarantine a credential twice for one refusal.
+                exhaustionSink.onExhausted(target, reason);
+            }
+            return true;
+        }
+        String backendError = firstMatchingLine(raw, backendErrorPatternOrFallback(target));
+        if (backendError != null) {
+            // Carry the pane, not just the matched line — the same fleetd#164 rule the normal path
+            // above applies. Here it matters more, not less: the trimmed block was empty, so the raw
+            // scrape is the ONLY copy of whatever the member managed to say. Clipped to the same cap
+            // the normal path uses, since a raw screen has no boundary trimming to bound it.
+            String reason = "member " + target + " ended on a backend error: " + backendError
+                    + "\n--- pane tail ---\n" + clip(raw);
+            if (rendezvous.resolveFailure(waiter, reason)) {
+                inFlight.remove(target, turn);
+                log.warn("failing send to {} via turn-stall fallback from the raw scrape: {}", target, reason);
+                // fleetd#201 Unit 1: only on the resolution that actually won the race.
+                backendErrorSink.onBackendError(target, backendError, reason);
+            }
+            return true;
+        }
+        return false;
+    }
+
     /** Synchronous fail (the unit-testable core of {@link #onTurnFailed}). */
     void fail(String target, InFlight turn) {
         fail(target, turn, null);
@@ -349,22 +536,53 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
     }
 
     /**
-     * fleetd#164: the failure reason for a turn that settled inside {@link #MIN_TURN_NANOS} — names
-     * the member and both timings, and appends whatever the pane shows (usually the backend's own
-     * error) so the caller sees the cause, not just "it failed".
+     * fleetd#164 (floor) / fleetd#201 (classification): fail a turn that settled inside
+     * {@link #MIN_TURN_NANOS} — a crash signature (e.g. a backend HTTP 400 before the worker did
+     * anything) that a bare {@code BUSY -> DONE} transition cannot be told apart from a genuinely
+     * fast completion. Runs the same backend-error classification the normal and raw-scrape paths
+     * apply, against whatever is on screen right now: a match is a typed failure that notifies
+     * {@link #backendErrorSink} (only on the resolution that wins the race); a non-match stays the
+     * original generic too-fast failure, naming the member and both timings, with whatever the pane
+     * shows appended so the caller sees the cause, not just "it failed".
      */
-    private String tooFastReason(String target, long elapsedNanos) {
+    private void failTooFast(String target, InFlight turn, CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter,
+                              long elapsedNanos) {
         String scrape;
         try {
-            scrape = clip(agents.read(target, SCRAPE_SOURCE));
+            scrape = agents.read(target, SCRAPE_SOURCE);
         } catch (RuntimeException e) {
             scrape = "";
         }
-        String reason = String.format(
+        String clippedScrape = clip(scrape);
+        String baseReason = String.format(
                 "member %s went BUSY -> DONE in %dms (floor %dms) — too fast to be real work, most "
                         + "likely a backend error before any work started",
                 target, elapsedNanos / 1_000_000, MIN_TURN_NANOS / 1_000_000);
-        return scrape.isBlank() ? reason : reason + ": " + scrape;
+        String backendError = firstMatchingLine(scrape, backendErrorPatternOrFallback(target));
+        if (backendError != null) {
+            String reason = baseReason + ": " + clippedScrape;
+            if (rendezvous.resolveFailure(waiter, reason)) {
+                inFlight.remove(target, turn);
+                log.warn("failing send to {} via turn-stall fallback: {}", target, reason);
+                // fleetd#201 Unit 1: only on the resolution that actually won the race.
+                backendErrorSink.onBackendError(target, backendError, reason);
+            }
+            return;
+        }
+        fail(target, turn, clippedScrape.isBlank() ? baseReason : baseReason + ": " + clippedScrape);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd#201: the pattern to classify a backend error against for {@code target} — its
+     * profile's configured {@link BackendErrorPatternLookup} entry when there is one, else the
+     * built-in {@link #BACKEND_ERROR} compatibility pattern. A target with no configured pattern is
+     * never "off": it always falls back to this narrow default, exactly like the classification
+     * behaved before fleetd#201 (Unit 5 reports a target relying on this fallback separately, as
+     * legacy-default coverage rather than full per-profile coverage).
+     */
+    private Pattern backendErrorPatternOrFallback(String target) {
+        Pattern configured = backendErrorPatterns.patternFor(target);
+        return configured != null ? configured : BACKEND_ERROR;
     }
 
     /**
@@ -402,9 +620,9 @@ public final class CompletionResolver implements TurnListener {
      * @param allProfiles        every configured profile name
      * @param configuredProfiles the subset of {@code allProfiles} that carry an exhausted pattern
      */
-    public static String coverage(Set<String> allProfiles, Set<String> configuredProfiles) {
+    public static String coverage(String patternKey, Set<String> allProfiles, Set<String> configuredProfiles) {
         if (configuredProfiles.isEmpty()) {
-            return "off (no profile has an exhaustedPattern configured; profiles: " + sorted(allProfiles) + ")";
+            return "off (no profile has an " + patternKey + " configured; profiles: " + sorted(allProfiles) + ")";
         }
         Set<String> unconfigured = new TreeSet<>(allProfiles);
         unconfigured.removeAll(configuredProfiles);

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/ExhaustionSink.java

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
 
+import java.util.function.Supplier;
+
 /**
  * Notified when {@link CompletionResolver} actually delivers a {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED}
  * classification to a waiting send (CB-578 stage B) — never on a race that lost (see
@@ -10,22 +12,81 @@ package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
  * profiles or credentials, so mapping {@code target} to whatever should be quarantined is entirely
  * the sink's job — see {@code Fleetd.main}'s wiring, which resolves target → session → profile →
  * {@code effectiveCredentialId()} and calls {@code BackendQuarantine.quarantine} on it.
+ *
+ * <p><strong>The 3-arg overload is the single abstract method — fleetd #234, round 4.</strong> Two
+ * earlier rounds each shipped a caller that silently dropped the profile hint (see {@link
+ * #onExhausted(String, String, String)}): a lambda written against this interface can only ever
+ * implement whichever overload is abstract, and while the 2-arg form held that position, EVERY
+ * lambda site — a call-site forwarder in {@code Fleetd.java}, a hand-built test double — bound to
+ * it and silently inherited the profile-dropping default, whether or not its author remembered the
+ * hazard. Making the 3-arg form abstract instead removes the shape entirely: a lambda declared
+ * against this interface today is <em>forced</em> by the compiler to take {@code (target, reason,
+ * profile)}, so there is no overload left for it to bind to that can drop the hint. This is a type
+ * change, not a test — it holds even for a caller that has never heard of fleetd #234.
  */
 @FunctionalInterface
 public interface ExhaustionSink {
 
     /**
-     * @param target the herdr terminal id whose turn was classified {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED}
-     * @param reason the matched-line reason carried by the classification
+     * @param target  the herdr terminal id whose turn was classified {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED}
+     * @param reason  the matched-line reason carried by the classification
+     * @param profile the profile the caller already knows should be quarantined, or {@code null}
+     *                when the caller has no better answer than {@code target} alone (fleetd #234):
+     *                a caller whose {@code target} is not yet resolvable through whatever roster
+     *                the sink's implementation consults — {@link
+     *                dev.ltms.fleet.member.OpenCodeLauncher}'s model-mismatch check fires from
+     *                {@code SessionAwareHandle.agentSessionId()}, which runs during {@code
+     *                SessionManager.acquire()} <em>before</em> that session is registered, so a
+     *                target -> session -> profile lookup finds nothing at that point. That launcher
+     *                already has its own {@code FleetConfig.Profile} in hand and does not need the
+     *                roster to know which profile to quarantine, so it supplies this directly
+     *                instead of leaving the sink to guess.
      */
-    void onExhausted(String target, String reason);
+    void onExhausted(String target, String reason, String profile);
+
+    /**
+     * Convenience for a caller with no profile to offer — every existing call site that predates
+     * the hint (fleetd #234): {@link dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver}'s two call sites
+     * always call with a {@code target} that IS live in the roster at the time of the call, so they
+     * need no hint and keep working exactly as before, unchanged by this default.
+     *
+     * @param target as {@link #onExhausted(String, String, String)}
+     * @param reason as {@link #onExhausted(String, String, String)}
+     */
+    default void onExhausted(String target, String reason) {
+        onExhausted(target, reason, null);
+    }
 
     /**
      * Inert sink — nothing happens on exhaustion. The explicit stand-in a caller (or a test not
      * exercising this feature) passes instead of a defaulting overload, exactly like
-     * {@link ExhaustedPatternLookup#none()}.
+     * {@link ExhaustedPatternLookup#none()}. Safe as a lambda: the 3-arg form is now the interface's
+     * single abstract method, so a lambda here has no other overload to silently bind to instead —
+     * it simply does nothing with all three arguments.
      */
     static ExhaustionSink none() {
-        return (target, reason) -> { };
+        return (target, reason, profile) -> { };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * A sink that forwards to whatever {@code target} currently supplies (fleetd #234). Exists to
+     * break a genuine construction-order cycle: {@code Fleetd.main} builds its adapters (including
+     * {@link dev.ltms.fleet.member.OpenCodeLauncher}) before {@code sessions} exists, so it cannot
+     * hand them the real sink yet — it hands them a forwarder pointed at an {@code
+     * AtomicReference<ExhaustionSink>} that starts at {@link #none()} and gets {@code .set()} to the
+     * real sink once {@code sessions} is built. {@code target} is evaluated on every call, never
+     * cached, so the forwarder keeps working after the reference is repointed.
+     *
+     * <p>Now safe as a one-line lambda (round 4): forwarding the single 3-arg abstract method
+     * forwards everything a caller can supply — there is no separate 2-arg overload left for a
+     * forwarder to bind to instead and silently lose the hint. Kept as a named factory rather than
+     * written inline at each call site anyway, so a test can call the exact object {@code
+     * Fleetd.java} builds instead of asserting a rebuilt copy of its shape (round 3's lesson).
+     *
+     * @param target supplies the sink to forward to, evaluated fresh on every call
+     * @return a sink whose call delegates to {@code target.get()}
+     */
+    static ExhaustionSink forwardingTo(Supplier<ExhaustionSink> target) {
+        return (t, r, p) -> target.get().onExhausted(t, r, p);
     }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java

@@ -10,12 +10,14 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Agent;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.metrics.FleetMetrics;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.metrics.Metrics;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.MemberPresence;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.LeadChannel;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.LeadMessage;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.MessageService;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.Rendezvous;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerUnreachableException;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionManager;
@@ -92,6 +94,10 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
     private final CapacitySource capacity;
     private final HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage;
     private final QuarantineSource quarantine;
+    /** fleetd #201 Unit 5: SEPARATE from {@link #quarantine} — see {@link OutageSource}'s doc. */
+    private final OutageSource outage;
+    /** fleetd #176: SEPARATE from both of the above — see {@link LeadSeatSource}'s doc. */
+    private final LeadSeatSource leadSeats;
     /** CB-637: this daemon's lead-to-lead channel; {@code null} when no coordinator is configured. */
     private final LeadChannel leadChannel;
 
@@ -115,6 +121,48 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         public static QuarantineSource none() { return new QuarantineSource(_ -> null, BackendQuarantine.none()); }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #201 Unit 5 cool-off facts used by {@code fleet_list}/{@code fleet_profiles}: a
+     * profile → credential id lookup, plus the shared {@link BackendOutagePolicy} to read remaining
+     * cool-offs off. A SEPARATE source from {@link QuarantineSource} — never merged into it — so a
+     * credential that is cooling off after repeated backend errors is reported independently of
+     * whether it is ALSO under CB-578 stage B exhaustion quarantine; the two checks can both fire
+     * for the same profile, and when they do, {@code fleet_list}/{@code fleet_profiles} report both
+     * (see {@link #capacityView}/{@link #profiles}).
+     */
+    public record OutageSource(Function<String, String> credentialIdFor, BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy) {
+        /** Inert source — no profile is ever reported cooling off. Explicit stand-in, not a default. */
+        public static OutageSource none() {
+            return new OutageSource(_ -> null, new BackendOutagePolicy(System::nanoTime));
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176: the seats a profile's own live LEAD session(s) hold on the same Claude
+     * subscription — a fact {@code fleet_list} reports alongside {@code free} via the
+     * {@code leadSeats} key.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code maxLoad} counts only <em>members</em>, never the lead itself. But a
+     * {@code subscription: true} profile bills the operator's own Claude account, and the lead is
+     * always a live {@code claude} session on that same account (it is never moved off-subscription
+     * — see {@code LeadLauncher}). See {@code Fleetd.leadSeatLookup} for how the count is derived —
+     * from {@code fleet.leaders.<name>.profile} and each profile's {@code effectiveCredentialId()},
+     * never a hardcoded constant.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #257: this count is reported, never subtracted from {@code free}. An earlier cut of
+     * this feature subtracted it, on the theory that it made {@code free} describe the real ceiling
+     * on the account — but the real spawn gate ({@code CompositePeerLauncher#enforceMaxLoad}) never
+     * read this count at all, so the subtraction made {@code free} disagree with the one thing it is
+     * supposed to describe: what a fresh {@code fleet_spawn} will actually get. No backend seat
+     * ceiling shared with the lead has been measured either — see {@code fleetd.example.yaml}'s
+     * {@code maxLoad} docs. {@code free} now always equals {@code max(0, maxLoad - live)}, and
+     * {@code leadSeats} is reported purely as a fact the caller may act on however it likes.
+     */
+    public record LeadSeatSource(Function<String, Integer> seatsFor) {
+        /** Inert source — no profile is ever reported as sharing a seat with a lead. */
+        public static LeadSeatSource none() { return new LeadSeatSource(_ -> 0); }
+    }
+
     /**
      * @param callers resolves each call's {@link Principal}; {@code null} disables authorization.
      *                This surface needs its own enforcement: {@code /mcp} is a raw servlet on
@@ -129,7 +177,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                       CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
                       QuarantineSource quarantine) {
         this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
-                healthCoverage, quarantine, null);
+                healthCoverage, quarantine, null, OutageSource.none(), LeadSeatSource.none());
     }
 
     /**
@@ -142,9 +190,43 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                      ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
                       CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
                       QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel) {
+        this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
+                healthCoverage, quarantine, leadChannel, OutageSource.none(), LeadSeatSource.none());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * As above, with fleetd #201 Unit 5 cool-off facts for {@code fleet_list}/{@code fleet_profiles}
+     * (see {@link OutageSource}).
+     *
+     * @param outage required — pass {@link OutageSource#none()} for a caller that does not want the
+     *               feature, never a defaulting overload (the same rule {@code quarantine} follows).
+     */
+    public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
+                     ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
+                      CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
+                      QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel, OutageSource outage) {
+        this(messages, workers, sessions, identity, presence, primaryRegistry, callers, metrics, capacity,
+                healthCoverage, quarantine, leadChannel, outage, LeadSeatSource.none());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * As above, with fleetd #176 lead-seat facts (see {@link LeadSeatSource}). This is what
+     * {@code Fleetd.main} actually wires up.
+     *
+     * @param leadSeats required — pass {@link LeadSeatSource#none()} for a caller that does not want
+     *                  the feature, never a defaulting overload (the same rule {@code quarantine} and
+     *                  {@code outage} follow).
+     */
+    public FleetMcp(MessageService messages, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
+                     ConnectionIdentity identity, MemberPresence presence, PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry,
+                      CallerResolver callers, Metrics metrics, CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
+                      QuarantineSource quarantine, LeadChannel leadChannel, OutageSource outage,
+                      LeadSeatSource leadSeats) {
         this.leadChannel = leadChannel;
         this.capacity = capacity;
         this.quarantine = Objects.requireNonNull(quarantine, "quarantine");
+        this.outage = Objects.requireNonNull(outage, "outage");
+        this.leadSeats = Objects.requireNonNull(leadSeats, "leadSeats");
         this.healthCoverage = healthCoverage;
         McpJsonMapper json = new JacksonMcpJsonMapperSupplier().get();
         this.transport = HttpServletStreamableServerTransportProvider.builder()
@@ -273,8 +355,8 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                 (exchange, _) -> {
                     McpSchema.CallToolResult denied = deny(exchange, Authz.Action.READ, null);
                     if (denied != null) return denied;
-                    return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine,
-                            callers == null ? Map.of() : callers.leads(),
+                    return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, outage,
+                            leadSeats, callers == null ? Map.of() : callers.leads(),
                             callerTerminal(exchange),
                             leadChannel == null ? null : leadChannel.selfCoordId());
                 };
@@ -289,7 +371,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                 (exchange, _) -> {
                     McpSchema.CallToolResult denied = deny(exchange, Authz.Action.READ, null);
                     if (denied != null) return denied;
-                    return profiles(workers, quarantine);
+                    return profiles(workers, quarantine, outage);
                 };
         BiFunction<McpSyncServerExchange, McpSchema.CallToolRequest, McpSchema.CallToolResult> whoamiHandler =
                 (exchange, _) -> {
@@ -543,8 +625,9 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
             case REPLIED -> text(r.text());
             // The worker's turn finished but it never called fleet_reply — hand back the scraped
             // transcript tail, flagged so the primary knows it isn't a structured reply.
-            case COMPLETED_UNREPLIED -> text(
-                    "[worker finished without a structured fleet_reply — transcript tail follows]\n" + r.text());
+            case COMPLETED_UNREPLIED -> text(r.text().startsWith(CompletionResolver.NO_REPORT_PREFIX)
+                    ? r.text()
+                    : "[worker finished without a structured fleet_reply — transcript tail follows]\n" + r.text());
             // The worker ran the turn then wedged (CB-109) — surface the error context.
             case WORKER_FAILED -> text("[worker failed — turn ended in an unrecoverable state]\n" + r.text());
             // The backend refused on a subscription usage limit (CB-578 stage A) — the worker's
@@ -659,6 +742,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         }
         return switch (v.phase()) {
             case DONE -> text(v.replySource() != null && v.replySource().equals("transcript")
+                            && !v.reply().startsWith(CompletionResolver.NO_REPORT_PREFIX)
                     ? "[done — worker finished without a structured fleet_reply; transcript tail follows]\n" + v.reply()
                     : v.reply());
             case PENDING -> text("[pending — " + v.detail() + "]");
@@ -872,25 +956,47 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
      * has ever been quarantined gets exactly the pre-stage-B shape.
      */
     static McpSchema.CallToolResult profiles(PeerLauncher workers, QuarantineSource quarantine) {
+        return profiles(workers, quarantine, OutageSource.none());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * As above, plus a SEPARATE {@code coolingOff} map (fleetd #201 Unit 5) — never merged into
+     * {@code quarantined} — for a profile whose credential is cooling off after repeated backend
+     * errors ({@link BackendOutagePolicy}). The two checks are independent: a profile can appear in
+     * both maps at once when it is both exhaustion-quarantined AND cooling off.
+     */
+    static McpSchema.CallToolResult profiles(PeerLauncher workers, QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage) {
         Map<String, Object> result = new LinkedHashMap<>();
         result.put("profiles", workers.profiles());
         result.put("default", workers.defaultProfile() == null ? "" : workers.defaultProfile());
         Map<String, Object> quarantined = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        Map<String, Object> coolingOff = new LinkedHashMap<>();
         for (String profile : workers.profiles()) {
             String credentialId = quarantine.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
-            if (credentialId == null) {
-                continue;
+            if (credentialId != null) {
+                quarantine.quarantine().remainingSeconds(credentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
+                    Map<String, Object> row = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+                    row.put("credentialId", credentialId);
+                    row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", remaining);
+                    quarantined.put(profile, row);
+                });
+            }
+            String outageCredentialId = outage.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
+            if (outageCredentialId != null) {
+                outage.outagePolicy().remainingCoolOffSeconds(outageCredentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
+                    Map<String, Object> row = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+                    row.put("credentialId", outageCredentialId);
+                    row.put("coolingOffForSeconds", remaining);
+                    coolingOff.put(profile, row);
+                });
             }
-            quarantine.quarantine().remainingSeconds(credentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
-                Map<String, Object> row = new LinkedHashMap<>();
-                row.put("credentialId", credentialId);
-                row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", remaining);
-                quarantined.put(profile, row);
-            });
         }
         if (!quarantined.isEmpty()) {
             result.put("quarantined", quarantined);
         }
+        if (!coolingOff.isEmpty()) {
+            result.put("coolingOff", coolingOff);
+        }
         return text(json(result));
     }
 
@@ -929,6 +1035,15 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
         return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, leads, selfTerm, null);
     }
 
+    /** As above, plus fleetd #201 Unit 5 cool-off facts (see {@link OutageSource}). */
+    static McpSchema.CallToolResult listFleet(PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions, MessageService messages,
+                                               CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
+                                               QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage,
+                                               Map<String, String> leads, String selfTerm) {
+        return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, outage,
+                LeadSeatSource.none(), leads, selfTerm, null);
+    }
+
     /**
      * As above, additionally reporting this daemon's own lead coordination id (CB-637) when one is
      * configured and its channel opened. There is no peer-discovery surface yet — a lead addresses a
@@ -942,6 +1057,25 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                                                CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
                                                QuarantineSource quarantine, Map<String, String> leads, String selfTerm,
                                                String selfCoordId) {
+        return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, OutageSource.none(),
+                LeadSeatSource.none(), leads, selfTerm, selfCoordId);
+    }
+
+    /** As above, plus fleetd #201 Unit 5 cool-off facts (see {@link OutageSource}). */
+    static McpSchema.CallToolResult listFleet(PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions, MessageService messages,
+                                               CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
+                                               QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage,
+                                               Map<String, String> leads, String selfTerm, String selfCoordId) {
+        return listFleet(workers, sessions, messages, capacity, healthCoverage, quarantine, outage,
+                LeadSeatSource.none(), leads, selfTerm, selfCoordId);
+    }
+
+    /** As above, plus fleetd #176 lead-seat facts (see {@link LeadSeatSource}). */
+    static McpSchema.CallToolResult listFleet(PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions, MessageService messages,
+                                               CapacitySource capacity, HealthCoverageSource healthCoverage,
+                                               QuarantineSource quarantine, OutageSource outage,
+                                               LeadSeatSource leadSeats, Map<String, String> leads, String selfTerm,
+                                               String selfCoordId) {
         try {
             Map<String, Agent> live = workers.list().stream()
                     .map(Agent.class::cast)
@@ -968,7 +1102,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
             }
             if (capacity.available()) result.put("capacity", profiles.stream()
                     .map(profile -> capacityView(profile, capacity.liveCount(), capacity.maxLoad(), roster, messages,
-                            capacity.clock().getAsLong(), quarantine)).toList());
+                            capacity.clock().getAsLong(), quarantine, outage, leadSeats)).toList());
             return text(json(result));
         } catch (HerdrException e) {
             return error("herdr error listing the fleet: " + e.getMessage());
@@ -1001,19 +1135,51 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
      * reports, reusing {@link QuarantineSource} rather than a second lookup. Both new keys are
      * added only when the profile is actually quarantined, so an ordinary fleet's rows are
      * byte-identical to before this change.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #201 Unit 5: a profile whose credential is cooling off (a SEPARATE, independent
+     * check from quarantine — see {@link OutageSource}) also forces {@code free} to 0 and carries
+     * {@code credentialId}/{@code coolingOffForSeconds}, but never {@code quarantinedForSeconds} —
+     * that key is added only when exhaustion quarantine is ALSO active for this profile, since the
+     * two checks are independent and either, both, or neither can be true.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #176: {@code maxLoad} counts panes, not subscription seats — it never counted the
+     * lead's own seat on a {@code subscription: true} profile's account. {@link LeadSeatSource}
+     * reports that count (0 for a non-subscription profile, or when no live lead shares its
+     * credential) via the {@code leadSeats} key, added only when the count is positive, for the
+     * same byte-identical-when-unused reason as the quarantine/cool-off keys above.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #257: {@code leadSeatCount} is reported, never subtracted from {@code free}.
+     * {@code free} means "what a fresh {@code fleet_spawn} on this profile will actually get", and
+     * the real gate ({@code CompositePeerLauncher#enforceMaxLoad}) only ever compares {@code live}
+     * against {@code maxLoad} — it has no notion of a lead's own seat. Subtracting
+     * {@code leadSeatCount} here made {@code free} disagree with the gate it is supposed to
+     * describe: it could report {@code free: 0} while a spawn on that exact profile still
+     * succeeded. {@code leadSeats} stays in the row as a fact the caller can act on however it
+     * likes, but it no longer changes what {@code free} means.
      */
     private static Map<String, Object> capacityView(String profile, Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                                      Function<String, Integer> maxLoad, List<MemberSession> roster,
-                                                     MessageService messages, long nowNanos, QuarantineSource quarantine) {
+                                                     MessageService messages, long nowNanos, QuarantineSource quarantine,
+                                                     OutageSource outage, LeadSeatSource leadSeats) {
         Integer cap = maxLoad.apply(profile);
         int live = liveCount.apply(profile);
+        int leadSeatCount = leadSeats.seatsFor().apply(profile);
         int reclaimable = (int) roster.stream().filter(s -> profile.equals(s.profile()))
                 .filter(s -> (s.state() == MemberSession.State.READY || s.state() == MemberSession.State.DONE))
                 .filter(s -> messages == null || (!messages.hasAcceptedDelivery(s.terminalId()) && !messages.hasInboxMessage(s.terminalId())))
                 .count();
         Map<String, Object> row = new LinkedHashMap<>();
         row.put("profile", profile); row.put("maxLoad", cap); row.put("live", live);
-        row.put("free", cap == null ? null : Math.max(0, cap - live)); row.put("reclaimable", reclaimable);
+        // fleetd #257: free must report what the real spawn gate (CompositePeerLauncher#enforceMaxLoad)
+        // will actually grant, and that gate never reads leadSeatCount — only maxLoad and live. Not
+        // subtracting the lead's seat here used to make free UNDERSTATE what a fresh fleet_spawn would
+        // get, so a lead believing free:0 gave up on a profile the gate would still spawn onto.
+        // leadSeatCount is still reported via the leadSeats key below, just never subtracted from free.
+        row.put("free", cap == null ? null : Math.max(0, cap - live));
+        row.put("reclaimable", reclaimable);
+        if (leadSeatCount > 0) {
+            row.put("leadSeats", leadSeatCount);
+        }
         String credentialId = quarantine.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
         if (credentialId != null) {
             quarantine.quarantine().remainingSeconds(credentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
@@ -1022,6 +1188,14 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                 row.put("quarantinedForSeconds", remaining);
             });
         }
+        String outageCredentialId = outage.credentialIdFor().apply(profile);
+        if (outageCredentialId != null) {
+            outage.outagePolicy().remainingCoolOffSeconds(outageCredentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
+                row.put("free", 0);
+                row.put("credentialId", outageCredentialId);
+                row.put("coolingOffForSeconds", remaining);
+            });
+        }
         return row;
     }
 
@@ -1161,7 +1335,11 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                         + "worktree:<ticket-slug> to provision an isolated git worktree. Pass resumeSessionId "
                         + "to relaunch onto a prior conversation instead of starting cold — this requires an "
                         + "explicit profile whose backend supports it (fleet_list shows agentSessionId for "
-                        + "resumable members), and is refused otherwise rather than silently starting fresh. "
+                        + "resumable members; it is absent for a member fleetd cannot reliably re-identify, "
+                        + "e.g. an opencode member spawned without a worktree), and is refused otherwise "
+                        + "rather than silently starting fresh. For an opencode profile, resumeSessionId "
+                        + "itself also requires worktree:true/<slug> on THIS spawn — without one fleetd can "
+                        + "never re-verify which conversation it actually resumed (fleetd #249). "
                         + "sessionName gives the member a display name in its own UI when the backend supports "
                         + "one. Returns the member's sessionId (use with fleet_send) and paneId (use with "
                         + "fleet_stop).",
@@ -1172,7 +1350,7 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                         "worktree", Map.of("type", "string", "description", "'true' or a ticket slug — requests an isolated git worktree"),
                         "ticket", stringProp("Ticket slug when worktree:true"),
                         "sessionName", stringProp("Logical display name for the member's own session, when its backend supports one"),
-                        "resumeSessionId", stringProp("A prior member's agentSessionId (from fleet_list) to resume — requires an explicit profile that supports it")),
+                        "resumeSessionId", stringProp("A prior member's agentSessionId (from fleet_list) to resume — requires an explicit profile that supports it, and (for opencode) a worktree on this spawn too")),
                         List.of()));
     }
 
@@ -1193,12 +1371,22 @@ public final class FleetMcp {
                         + "discover a peer lead without being told its address. 'members' are the "
                         + "sessions delegated to — each with sessionId, paneId, role (architect/dev/"
                         + "reviewer), profile (the backend it runs on), state, optional "
-                        + "worktree/branch/owner/agentSessionId (the id to pass as fleet_spawn's "
-                        + "resumeSessionId to relaunch onto that same conversation, when the backend "
-                        + "supports it), and live herdr status. An empty 'members' "
+                        + "worktree/branch/owner/agentSessionId, and live herdr status. agentSessionId, "
+                        + "when present, is the id to pass as fleet_spawn's resumeSessionId to relaunch "
+                        + "onto that same conversation. It is ABSENT — not a guess — for a member fleetd "
+                        + "cannot reliably re-identify: some backends (e.g. opencode) resolve it from the "
+                        + "member's working directory, which only uniquely identifies a member when it "
+                        + "was spawned into its own fleetd-provisioned worktree (worktree:true/<slug>); a "
+                        + "member spawned without one shares its directory with others and never reports "
+                        + "an id, however long it runs (fleetd #249). An empty 'members' "
                         + "means no members are spawned; it says nothing about peers. When capacity "
-                        + "facts are configured, a 'capacity' row per profile also reports free: 0 for "
-                        + "a quarantined profile's credential (see fleet_profiles), whatever its "
+                        + "facts are configured, a 'capacity' row per profile reports 'free' — the "
+                        + "slots a fresh fleet_spawn on that profile will actually be granted right "
+                        + "now (max(0, maxLoad - live)), the same check the spawn gate itself runs. A "
+                        + "'leadSeats' key, when present, reports how many of those live slots are a "
+                        + "lead session sharing this profile's subscription — informational only, "
+                        + "already NOT subtracted from 'free' (fleetd #257). It also reports free: 0 "
+                        + "for a quarantined profile's credential (see fleet_profiles), whatever its "
                         + "maxLoad/live — with credentialId and quarantinedForSeconds naming the "
                         + "quarantine, so 'free: 0, busy' can be told apart from 'free: 0, refusing "
                         + "for N seconds'.",

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/ClaudeCodeLauncher.java

@@ -1,5 +1,8 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.member;
 
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.node.ObjectNode;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Agent;
@@ -14,6 +17,8 @@ import java.io.IOException;
 import java.io.UncheckedIOException;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.nio.file.StandardCopyOption;
+import java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFileAttributeView;
 import java.util.EnumSet;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
@@ -47,6 +52,21 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
 
     private static final Logger log = LoggerFactory.getLogger(ClaudeCodeLauncher.class);
 
+    /** JSON codec for the additive workspace-trust seed (fleetd #149) — Jackson's default settings. */
+    private static final ObjectMapper TRUST_JSON = new ObjectMapper();
+
+    /**
+     * Serialises every {@link #seedTrustDialog} read-modify-write for the whole daemon process.
+     * Two claude-code spawns starting at once are normal (fleetd runs several members in parallel
+     * routinely) and both would otherwise read the same {@code .claude.json}, add their own entry
+     * to their own in-memory copy, and write — the second write wins and the first spawn's trust
+     * entry silently disappears. A single process-wide lock is enough because every spawn on this
+     * daemon runs in this one JVM; it does not protect against a second daemon process or the
+     * operator's own Claude Code process writing at the same instant, which {@link #writeAtomically}
+     * covers instead (each writer only ever sees a fully-old or fully-new file, never a torn one).
+     */
+    private static final Object TRUST_JSON_LOCK = new Object();
+
     private final SubscriptionGuard guard;
 
     /**
@@ -258,11 +278,15 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
             workerEnv.remove("ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN");
         } else {
             workerEnv.put("ANTHROPIC_BASE_URL", baseUrl);
-            putIfPresent(workerEnv, "ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN", env.apply(cfg.tokenEnv()));
+            putIfPresent(workerEnv, "ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN", resolveEnv(cfg.tokenEnv()));
         }
         putIfPresent(workerEnv, "ANTHROPIC_MODEL", cfg.model());
         putIfPresent(workerEnv, "CLAUDE_CONFIG_DIR", cfg.configDir());
         applyGitToken(workerEnv, cfg);
+        // fleetd #149: seed the workspace-trust entry BEFORE this spawn ever reaches herdr — see
+        // seedTrustDialog for why, and isProvisionedWorktree for why this is gated to a worktree
+        // fleetd itself provisioned (never a real checkout, never an un-configured fallback cwd).
+        seedTrustDialog(cfg.configDir(), spec.cwd());
 
         // CB-547a: Claude Code can MINT its own session id, so fleetd chooses it — a fresh spawn
         // gets a UUID we pass as --session-id and return from agentSessionId(), so the resume
@@ -278,18 +302,22 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
 
     /**
      * Add the Claude-specific session-identity flags to {@code argv} and return the peer's OWN
-     * session id — the resume handle. A resume request passes the prior id via {@code -r} and
-     * returns that id; a fresh named session mints a new UUID, passes it via {@code --session-id},
-     * and returns the mint. The bridge's logical name rides along as {@code -n} when present. When
-     * <em>no</em> identity is requested (sessionName and resumeSessionId both blank) this adds
-     * nothing and returns {@code null}, keeping the legacy no-identity launch byte-identical.
+     * session id — the resume handle. A resume passes the prior id via {@code -r} and returns
+     * that id; every other spawn mints a new UUID, passes it via {@code --session-id}, and
+     * returns the mint. The bridge's logical name rides along as {@code -n} when present.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #214: the mint is unconditional. A plain {@code fleet_spawn} passes neither
+     * sessionName nor resumeSessionId, yet the member must still be resumable, and this id is
+     * the only resume handle a claude-code member has — unlike opencode, nothing resolves it
+     * after the launch. Checked against the real binary (claude 2.1.252): the flag is safe on
+     * every spawn. The binary takes only a valid UUID — it refuses any other value at argument
+     * parsing ("Invalid session ID. Must be a valid UUID.") — so the {@code UUID.randomUUID()}
+     * mint is required, not incidental. The only flag interaction the binary documents is with
+     * {@code -r} (both claim the session id), and the resume branch above never combines the two.
      */
     private static String applySessionIdentity(List<String> argv, String sessionName, String resumeSessionId) {
         boolean resuming = resumeSessionId != null && !resumeSessionId.isBlank();
         boolean named = sessionName != null && !sessionName.isBlank();
-        if (!resuming && !named) {
-            return null; // no identity requested — keep the legacy launch byte-identical
-        }
         if (named) {
             argv.add("-n");
             argv.add(sessionName);
@@ -320,11 +348,19 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      *
      * <p>CB-618: Claude Code refuses to start when BOTH {@code --append-system-prompt} and
      * {@code --append-system-prompt-file} are on the command line ("Cannot use both ... Please use
-     * only one"), so the two charters can never travel on separate flags. When both are present they
-     * are concatenated into the one file, role charter first and reply charter last — last is where
-     * the reply rule must sit, because it is the rule that must survive. When only the reply charter
-     * is present it keeps its proven inline {@code --append-system-prompt} delivery, which is also
-     * the only form that reaches a member with no repo checkout.
+     * only one"), so the two charters can never travel on separate flags. They are concatenated
+     * into the one file, role charter first and reply charter last — last is where the reply rule
+     * must sit, because it is the rule that must survive.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #220: a lone reply charter used to ride inline on {@code --append-system-prompt},
+     * which put ~800 bytes of prose on the command line herdr types into the pane. That line is
+     * capped at {@value HerdrPeerLauncher#PANE_COMMAND_BYTE_LIMIT} bytes by the pty itself, and
+     * everything past the cap is dropped with no error from any layer. The charter alone left about
+     * 50 bytes of headroom, so adding one flag ({@code --session-id}, fleetd #214) truncated the
+     * LAST argument instead — {@code --autocompact 250000} arrived as {@code --autocompact 25},
+     * claude rejected it, and every claude-code spawn died as an unexplained readiness timeout.
+     * The charter now always travels as a file, which takes the prose off the command line for
+     * good; {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#checkPaneCommandFits} is the backstop for whatever grows next.
      */
     private List<String> argvWithFleet(FleetConfig.Profile cfg, LaunchSpec spec) {
         String roleCharter = nonBlank(spec.roleCharter());
@@ -341,16 +377,13 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
             argv.add("--mcp-config");
             argv.add(mcpConfigJson(cfg));
         }
-        // Combine the charters in order role -> reply, dropping any that are absent. When two
-        // or more survive they must ride one --append-system-prompt-file (CB-618 forbids the inline
-        // flag and the file flag together). A lone reply charter keeps its proven inline delivery.
+        // Combine the charters in order role -> reply, dropping any that are absent. They ride one
+        // --append-system-prompt-file (CB-618 forbids the inline flag and the file flag together),
+        // always — fleetd #220: charter prose on the command line overruns the pane's byte cap.
         List<String> charters = new java.util.ArrayList<>(2);
         if (roleCharter != null) charters.add(roleCharter);
         if (replyCharter != null) charters.add(replyCharter);
-        if (charters.size() == 1 && replyCharter != null && roleCharter == null) {
-            argv.add("--append-system-prompt");
-            argv.add(replyCharter);
-        } else if (!charters.isEmpty()) {
+        if (!charters.isEmpty()) {
             argv.add("--append-system-prompt-file");
             argv.add(writeCharterFile(String.join("\n\n", charters)).toString());
         }
@@ -403,12 +436,12 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      */
     private static void writeIdeOverlay(String cwd, String projectPath) {
         try {
-            Path dotGit = Path.of(cwd, ".git");
-            if (!Files.isRegularFile(dotGit)) {
+            if (!isProvisionedWorktree(cwd)) {
                 // Not a provisioned worktree (primary's real checkout has a .git directory, or the
                 // cwd is not a repo at all). Never write into it.
                 return;
             }
+            Path dotGit = Path.of(cwd, ".git");
             // The overlay FILE lives at the worktree root (claude-code's cwd), but its CONTENT pins
             // project_path to the module dir the IDE opened (projectPath), not the worktree root.
             Files.writeString(Path.of(cwd, "CLAUDE.local.md"), PeerLauncher.ideOverlayText(projectPath));
@@ -438,6 +471,173 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #149: pre-seed the workspace-trust entry for {@code cwd} in Claude Code's own config
+     * file, BEFORE this launch ever reaches herdr (called from {@link #buildLaunch}, which always
+     * runs before the base class starts the process). Claude Code asks an interactive, un-timed
+     * "Is this a project you created or one you trust?" the first time it starts in a directory it
+     * has not seen before, and every {@code worktree: true} spawn lands in a brand-new directory —
+     * so without this seed the member sits on that dialog forever, never mounts the bridge MCP, and
+     * never calls {@code fleet_reply}. herdr reports it as healthy the whole time ({@code
+     * agent_status: blocked}, {@code interactive_ready: true}), so nothing else catches it. Measured
+     * live on fleet01 2026-08-23: an unseeded fresh cwd sat on the dialog indefinitely; a seeded one
+     * reached {@code idle} clean.
+     *
+     * <p>This is not a new grant — the operator already trusted this repo by configuring the
+     * profile against it, and a worktree is a checkout of that same repo.
+     *
+     * <p>The key Claude Code reads is per-project, in {@code .claude.json}: {@code
+     * projects.<cwd>.hasTrustDialogAccepted}. The file lives at {@code <configDir>/.claude.json}
+     * when the profile sets {@code CLAUDE_CONFIG_DIR} (mirrors this launcher's own env var above),
+     * else the default {@code ~/.claude.json} — the same file Claude Code itself would read either
+     * way, so this seeds exactly what the spawned peer is about to open.
+     *
+     * <p><b>Additive, not a rewrite.</b> {@code .claude.json} is large (tens of KB, dozens of
+     * projects) and Claude Code itself rewrites it while running, so this reads the file as a JSON
+     * tree (missing or unreadable → treated as an empty object) and changes only
+     * {@code projects.<cwd>.hasTrustDialogAccepted} (that key alone — see fleetd #247) —
+     * every other top-level key and every other project entry is written back untouched. Only the
+     * one project entry for {@code cwd} is replaced/created; an existing entry for a DIFFERENT cwd
+     * (or the operator's own project history) is never touched.
+     *
+     * <p>Best-effort, like {@link #writeIdeOverlay}: a failure here (unwritable configDir, a
+     * corrupt existing file, …) must never fail the spawn — it is logged at debug and swallowed. A
+     * peer that starts without the seed still starts; it just may hit the dialog fleetd #149
+     * describes.
+     *
+     * <p><b>Gated to a provisioned worktree</b> ({@link HerdrPeerLauncher#isProvisionedWorktree}) — see that
+     * method's javadoc for the incident that made this gate mandatory, not optional: this must
+     * never run against a real checkout or an un-configured fallback cwd, only the exact
+     * always-fresh-directory population fleetd #149 describes.
+     *
+     * <p><b>Atomic and lock-protected.</b> {@code .claude.json} is a live file — Claude Code itself
+     * rewrites it while running, and this daemon routinely spawns several members at once, each
+     * calling this method for its own cwd. Every write goes through {@link #writeAtomically} (a
+     * sibling-temp-file + {@code ATOMIC_MOVE}, never a truncate-in-place) so a crash mid-write or a
+     * concurrent reader never observes a half-written file, and through {@link #TRUST_JSON_LOCK} so
+     * two concurrent spawns' entries both survive instead of the second write silently discarding
+     * the first. Both exist because of a real incident: see {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#isProvisionedWorktree}'s javadoc
+     * and {@link #writeAtomically}'s javadoc.
+     *
+     * @param configDir the profile's {@code CLAUDE_CONFIG_DIR} ({@code cfg.configDir()}), or
+     *                  {@code null}/blank to target the default {@code ~/.claude.json}
+     * @param cwd       the spawn's resolved working directory — the exact key Claude Code will look
+     *                  up for itself once it starts there
+     */
+    private static void seedTrustDialog(String configDir, String cwd) {
+        if (!isProvisionedWorktree(cwd)) {
+            return;
+        }
+        Path target = (configDir == null || configDir.isBlank())
+                ? Path.of(System.getProperty("user.home"), ".claude.json")
+                : Path.of(configDir, ".claude.json");
+        synchronized (TRUST_JSON_LOCK) {
+            try {
+                if (target.getParent() != null) {
+                    Files.createDirectories(target.getParent());
+                }
+                ObjectNode root = null;
+                if (Files.isRegularFile(target)) {
+                    JsonNode existing = TRUST_JSON.readTree(target.toFile());
+                    if (existing instanceof ObjectNode existingObject) {
+                        root = existingObject;
+                    }
+                }
+                if (root == null) {
+                    root = TRUST_JSON.createObjectNode();
+                }
+                JsonNode projectsNode = root.get("projects");
+                ObjectNode projects = projectsNode instanceof ObjectNode projectsObject
+                        ? projectsObject : TRUST_JSON.createObjectNode();
+                if (!(projectsNode instanceof ObjectNode)) {
+                    root.set("projects", projects);
+                }
+                JsonNode projectNode = projects.get(cwd);
+                ObjectNode project = projectNode instanceof ObjectNode projectObject
+                        ? projectObject : TRUST_JSON.createObjectNode();
+                if (!(projectNode instanceof ObjectNode)) {
+                    projects.set(cwd, project);
+                }
+                // fleetd #247: ONLY hasTrustDialogAccepted. We used to write
+                // hasCompletedProjectOnboarding beside it; do not put it back. Measured on
+                // 2026-09-03, minutes after a live spawn seeded this file: 28 of 28 project
+                // entries carried hasTrustDialogAccepted and 0 of 28 carried the onboarding key
+                // — including the 27 entries Claude Code wrote for itself. Claude Code
+                // normalises the whole file when it saves and drops that key every time, so
+                // writing it achieved nothing except making the next reader think it mattered.
+                // The member reached idle with the trust flag alone, which is the only outcome
+                // this seed exists for. If a future Claude Code needs the second flag the
+                // symptom returns as the trust dialog fleetd #149 describes — re-measure then,
+                // do not restore it on a guess.
+                project.put("hasTrustDialogAccepted", true);
+                writeAtomically(target, TRUST_JSON.writerWithDefaultPrettyPrinter().writeValueAsString(root));
+            } catch (Exception e) {
+                log.debug("cannot seed workspace-trust entry for cwd '{}' into '{}'", cwd, target, e);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Write {@code content} to {@code target} atomically: serialise to a sibling temp file in the
+     * <strong>same directory</strong> as {@code target} (an atomic move is only guaranteed within
+     * one filesystem — a different directory could mean a different filesystem), then
+     * {@link StandardCopyOption#ATOMIC_MOVE} it into place. A reader — Claude Code itself, or
+     * another {@code seedTrustDialog} call — only ever observes the fully-old file or the
+     * fully-new one, never a truncated or half-written one.
+     *
+     * <p><b>fleetd #149 incident.</b> The original implementation used
+     * {@code Files.writeString(target, content)} directly, which truncates {@code target} in place
+     * before writing the replacement bytes. Combined with an ungated {@code cwd} (see
+     * {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#isProvisionedWorktree}'s javadoc), a mutation-testing run hit that truncation window
+     * against the operator's real {@code ~/.claude.json} and left it at 178 bytes. The gate closes
+     * <em>which file</em> this can ever target; this closes <em>how</em> the target is written, so
+     * that even a legitimate write against a real, live, concurrently-read {@code .claude.json}
+     * cannot leave it observably empty or partial.
+     *
+     * <p>Preserves {@code target}'s existing POSIX permissions (Claude Code ships {@code
+     * .claude.json} as {@code 0600}) when the filesystem reports them; a freshly created temp file
+     * already defaults to owner-only permissions on a POSIX filesystem, so a first-ever write (no
+     * existing {@code target}) is no less private without this. On a non-POSIX filesystem (e.g.
+     * Windows) the permission copy is a silent no-op rather than a failure.
+     *
+     * <p>Package-visible (not {@code private}) so a test can drive it directly with a concurrent
+     * reader thread and prove the torn-file property this method exists for — the LOCK in
+     * {@link #seedTrustDialog} already fully serialises every call this launcher itself makes, so a
+     * test that only ever goes through {@code seedTrustDialog}/{@code spawn()} could never observe
+     * a torn file regardless of whether this method is atomic; it would be proving the lock, not
+     * this method. Atomicity's actual job is protecting against a writer the lock cannot reach at
+     * all — a second daemon process, or the operator's own live Claude Code — so the test for it
+     * has to reach this method on its own.
+     */
+    static void writeAtomically(Path target, String content) throws IOException {
+        Path parent = target.getParent();
+        Path tmp = Files.createTempFile(parent, target.getFileName() + ".", ".tmp");
+        try {
+            Files.writeString(tmp, content);
+            copyPosixPermissionsIfPresent(target, tmp);
+            Files.move(tmp, target, StandardCopyOption.ATOMIC_MOVE, StandardCopyOption.REPLACE_EXISTING);
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            Files.deleteIfExists(tmp);
+            throw e;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** Copy {@code target}'s POSIX permissions onto {@code tmp}, or no-op where either is unsupported. */
+    private static void copyPosixPermissionsIfPresent(Path target, Path tmp) {
+        try {
+            if (!Files.isRegularFile(target)) {
+                return; // nothing to inherit from — first-ever write, temp file's own default stands
+            }
+            PosixFileAttributeView view = Files.getFileAttributeView(target, PosixFileAttributeView.class);
+            if (view == null) {
+                return; // non-POSIX filesystem — nothing this JVM can read/set here
+            }
+            Files.setPosixFilePermissions(tmp, Files.getPosixFilePermissions(target));
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            log.debug("cannot preserve permissions of '{}' onto its replacement", target, e);
+        }
+    }
+
     /** {@code s}, or {@code null} when {@code s} is null/blank — the charter-presence test used above. */
     private static String nonBlank(String s) {
         return (s == null || s.isBlank()) ? null : s;
@@ -450,12 +650,83 @@ public final class ClaudeCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      * {@link OpenCodeLauncher#writeConfig} already uses for its charter file, since the process that
      * reads this file (the spawned peer) outlives this JVM call and there is no spawn-scoped teardown
      * hook to delete it synchronously.
+     *
+     * <p><b>fleetd #222.</b> {@code Files.createTempFile(prefix, suffix)} with no directory argument
+     * resolves against {@code java.io.tmpdir} — on macOS the per-user {@code $TMPDIR} under
+     * {@code /var/folders/...}, mode {@code 0700}, both resolved against FLEETD's own OS user. Under
+     * {@code memberHerdrSocket:} the member pane runs as a DIFFERENT OS user, so that user cannot even
+     * traverse the directory, let alone read the file — and since fleetd #220 the charter file is the
+     * ONLY delivery path for {@code --append-system-prompt-file}, always, not merely the fallback it
+     * used to be. A member handed a path it cannot read is not degraded, it is broken: see this
+     * method's refusal branch below.
+     *
+     * <p><b>Measured severity (fleetd #222 real-binary check, claude 2.1.258):</b> an unreadable
+     * {@code --append-system-prompt-file} is the LOUD failure, not the silent one. {@code claude}
+     * checks the file before touching auth or the network — invoked with a bogus API key against a
+     * {@code chmod 000} file, it printed {@code Error reading append system prompt file: EACCES:
+     * permission denied, open '<path>'} and exited 1 immediately (a nonexistent path gets {@code
+     * Error: Append system prompt file not found: <path>}, same exit code). So the pre-fix bug did
+     * NOT leave a charter-less member silently occupying a pane and never calling {@code
+     * fleet_reply} — it made the herdr pane exit immediately, which the CB-306 spawn-readiness gate
+     * (this launcher's {@code spawnReadyTimeoutMs} poll) would have surfaced as "did not reach
+     * injectable state", the same unexplained-timeout shape fleetd #220 already describes. Still a
+     * real defect (every claude-code member under {@code memberHerdrSocket} would have failed to
+     * spawn), but not the worse, undetectable failure mode.
+     *
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>{@code memberHerdrSocket} ABSENT (today's only live mode): byte-identical to before this
+     *       fix — {@code Files.createTempFile("fleetd-role-charter-", ".md")} with no directory
+     *       argument, i.e. still resolved against {@code java.io.tmpdir}.</li>
+     *   <li>{@code memberHerdrSocket} PRESENT: a fresh per-spawn directory is created under {@code
+     *       worktreeRoot} (never {@code java.io.tmpdir}) holding just the charter file, then shared
+     *       read-only with {@code worktreeGroup} via {@link EnvAllowListScrub#shareWithGroup} — the
+     *       SAME mechanism fleetd #213 built for the ZDOTDIR scrub and fleetd #219 reused for {@link
+     *       OpenCodeLauncher#writeConfig}'s {@code opencode.json} directory, reused here rather than
+     *       duplicated a third time. A per-spawn subdirectory (not {@code worktreeRoot} itself) is the
+     *       unit {@code shareWithGroup} chmods, so this never touches permissions on anything else
+     *       under {@code worktreeRoot}.</li>
+     * </ul>
+     *
+     * <p><b>Follows fleetd #219's REFUSAL decision, not #213's degrade decision.</b> The ZDOTDIR
+     * scrub is a credential CONTROL — a degraded control (the CB-596 sentinel overlay) still has
+     * value, so #213 falls back rather than refusing. A charter is NOT a control, it is the member's
+     * TURN CONTRACT (the rule that ends every turn with {@code fleet_reply}). A member spawned with no
+     * charter is not degraded, it is broken: either claude-code exits on the unreadable
+     * {@code --append-system-prompt-file} path and the spawn dies at the readiness gate (loud), or it
+     * starts anyway with no charter and never calls {@code fleet_reply} — the sender silently gets
+     * nothing (silent). Neither outcome is worth trading for "spawn something." So a missing {@code
+     * worktreeRoot}/{@code worktreeGroup} under {@code memberHerdrSocket} refuses the spawn here,
+     * naming the missing key, exactly like {@link OpenCodeLauncher#configParentDir()}.
+     *
+     * @throws IllegalStateException when {@code memberHerdrSocket} is configured but {@code
+     *                                worktreeRoot} and/or {@code worktreeGroup} is not
      */
-    private static Path writeCharterFile(String charterText) {
+    private Path writeCharterFile(String charterText) {
         try {
-            Path file = Files.createTempFile("fleetd-role-charter-", ".md");
+            if (!memberHerdrSocketConfigured()) {
+                Path file = Files.createTempFile("fleetd-role-charter-", ".md");
+                Files.writeString(file, charterText);
+                file.toFile().deleteOnExit();
+                return file;
+            }
+            Path parentDir = memberScrubParentDir();
+            String group = memberGroup();
+            if (parentDir == null || group == null) {
+                throw new IllegalStateException("memberHerdrSocket is configured, so the role/reply "
+                        + "charter file (mounted via --append-system-prompt-file) must be placed where "
+                        + "the member's OS user can read it — worktreeRoot, shared via worktreeGroup — "
+                        + "but " + (parentDir == null ? "worktreeRoot" : "worktreeGroup") + " is not "
+                        + "configured. Refusing to spawn rather than hand the member a charter path it "
+                        + "cannot read: that member's turn contract (the fleet_reply rule) would never "
+                        + "reach it. Configure both worktreeRoot and worktreeGroup to enable claude-code "
+                        + "member spawns under memberHerdrSocket.");
+            }
+            Path dir = Files.createTempDirectory(parentDir, "fleetd-role-charter-");
+            dir.toFile().deleteOnExit();
+            Path file = dir.resolve("charter.md");
             Files.writeString(file, charterText);
             file.toFile().deleteOnExit();
+            EnvAllowListScrub.shareWithGroup(dir, group);
             return file;
         } catch (IOException e) {
             throw new UncheckedIOException("cannot write role charter temp file", e);

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/CompositePeerLauncher.java

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerHandle;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerLauncher;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerUnreachableException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.SpawnRequest;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementCandidate;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementContext;
@@ -92,6 +93,18 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
     /** CB-578 stage B: credential cooldown, checked before an explicit spawn and filtered into placement. */
     private final BackendQuarantine quarantine;
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #201 Unit 5: credential cool-off after repeated backend errors, checked before an
+     * explicit spawn and filtered into placement — a SEPARATE, shorter-lived source from
+     * {@link #quarantine}. A never-{@code record}-called instance is naturally inert (its
+     * {@code remainingCoolOffSeconds} always returns empty), so back-compat constructors that predate
+     * this feature share one fixed instance rather than needing a {@code none()} sentinel.
+     */
+    private final BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy;
+
+    /** The shared inert instance back-compat constructors wire in — never {@code record}-called. */
+    private static final BackendOutagePolicy NO_OUTAGE_POLICY = new BackendOutagePolicy(System::nanoTime);
+
     /**
      * CB-557: the role pools an unqualified spawn draws its candidates from. A supplier that yields
      * {@code null}, and an empty pool for a role, both fall back to every configured profile — the
@@ -130,7 +143,8 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                                  Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profileConfigs,
                                  PlacementPolicy placementPolicy,
                                  Function<String, Integer> liveCount) {
-        this(delegates, defaultProfile, profileConfigs, placementPolicy, liveCount, null, BackendQuarantine.none());
+        this(delegates, defaultProfile, profileConfigs, placementPolicy, liveCount, null,
+                BackendQuarantine.none(), NO_OUTAGE_POLICY);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -148,13 +162,14 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                                  PlacementPolicy placementPolicy,
                                  Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                  FleetConfig.Fleet fleet) {
-        this(delegates, defaultProfile, profileConfigs, placementPolicy, liveCount, fleet, BackendQuarantine.none());
+        this(delegates, defaultProfile, profileConfigs, placementPolicy, liveCount, fleet,
+                BackendQuarantine.none(), NO_OUTAGE_POLICY);
     }
 
     /**
-     * Production constructor with role pools and quarantine (CB-578 stage B). The full-featured
-     * non-reloading form; {@link #CompositePeerLauncher(List, String, Supplier, Function, BackendQuarantine)}
-     * is what {@code Fleetd.main} actually wires up.
+     * Production constructor with role pools and quarantine (CB-578 stage B), no cool-off (fleetd
+     * #201 Unit 5). Kept for callers that predate the cool-off feature; use the 8-arg overload below
+     * to wire a real {@link BackendOutagePolicy}.
      *
      * @param quarantine required — pass {@link BackendQuarantine#none()} for a caller that does not
      *                   want the feature, never a defaulting overload (CB-578 stage B's own rule).
@@ -166,17 +181,42 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                                  Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                  FleetConfig.Fleet fleet,
                                  BackendQuarantine quarantine) {
+        this(delegates, defaultProfile, profileConfigs, placementPolicy, liveCount, fleet, quarantine,
+                NO_OUTAGE_POLICY);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Production constructor with role pools, quarantine (CB-578 stage B), and cool-off (fleetd
+     * #201 Unit 5). The full-featured non-reloading form;
+     * {@link #CompositePeerLauncher(List, String, Supplier, Function, BackendQuarantine, BackendOutagePolicy)}
+     * is what {@code Fleetd.main} actually wires up.
+     *
+     * @param quarantine   required — pass {@link BackendQuarantine#none()} for a caller that does not
+     *                     want the feature, never a defaulting overload (CB-578 stage B's own rule).
+     * @param outagePolicy required — pass a fresh, never-{@code record}-called {@link
+     *                     BackendOutagePolicy} for a caller that does not want the feature; same
+     *                     "explicit opt-out, never a silent default" rule as {@code quarantine}.
+     */
+    public CompositePeerLauncher(List<HerdrPeerLauncher> delegates,
+                                 String defaultProfile,
+                                 Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profileConfigs,
+                                 PlacementPolicy placementPolicy,
+                                 Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
+                                 FleetConfig.Fleet fleet,
+                                 BackendQuarantine quarantine,
+                                 BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy) {
         // LinkedHashMap, not Map.copyOf: candidates() promises definition order and the weighted
         // policy breaks exact-weight ties on it, so a salted iteration order would make placement
         // differ from one JVM run to the next.
         this(delegates, defaultProfile,
                 constant(Collections.unmodifiableMap(new LinkedHashMap<>(profileConfigs))),
-                constant(placementPolicy), liveCount, constant(fleet), quarantine);
+                constant(placementPolicy), liveCount, constant(fleet), quarantine, outagePolicy);
     }
 
     /**
      * Production constructor that re-reads its placement inputs per spawn (CB-559), so a config
-     * reload retargets the next member without a restart.
+     * reload retargets the next member without a restart. No cool-off (fleetd #201 Unit 5); use the
+     * 6-arg overload below to wire a real {@link BackendOutagePolicy}.
      *
      * @param config     the live configuration — read at every spawn, never captured
      * @param quarantine required — CB-578 stage B; pass {@link BackendQuarantine#none()} to opt out
@@ -186,12 +226,31 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                                  Supplier<FleetConfig> config,
                                  Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                  BackendQuarantine quarantine) {
+        this(delegates, defaultProfile, config, liveCount, quarantine, NO_OUTAGE_POLICY);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Production constructor that re-reads its placement inputs per spawn (CB-559), with cool-off
+     * (fleetd #201 Unit 5). This is what {@code Fleetd.main} actually wires up.
+     *
+     * @param config       the live configuration — read at every spawn, never captured
+     * @param quarantine   required — CB-578 stage B; pass {@link BackendQuarantine#none()} to opt out
+     * @param outagePolicy required — fleetd #201 Unit 5; pass a fresh, never-{@code record}-called
+     *                     {@link BackendOutagePolicy} to opt out
+     */
+    public CompositePeerLauncher(List<HerdrPeerLauncher> delegates,
+                                 String defaultProfile,
+                                 Supplier<FleetConfig> config,
+                                 Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
+                                 BackendQuarantine quarantine,
+                                 BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy) {
         this(delegates, defaultProfile,
                 () -> config.get().profiles(),
                 () -> PlacementPolicies.fromName(config.get().placement()),
                 liveCount,
                 () -> config.get().fleet(),
-                quarantine);
+                quarantine,
+                outagePolicy);
     }
 
     /** The all-suppliers form every other constructor funnels into. */
@@ -201,9 +260,11 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                                   Supplier<PlacementPolicy> placementPolicy,
                                   Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                   Supplier<FleetConfig.Fleet> fleet,
-                                  BackendQuarantine quarantine) {
+                                  BackendQuarantine quarantine,
+                                  BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy) {
         this.fleet = fleet;
         this.quarantine = Objects.requireNonNull(quarantine, "quarantine");
+        this.outagePolicy = Objects.requireNonNull(outagePolicy, "outagePolicy");
         if (delegates.isEmpty()) {
             throw new IllegalArgumentException("at least one peer adapter must be configured");
         }
@@ -266,7 +327,10 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
             // the charter makes explicit-profile spawns the normal path — so skipping the check
             // here would leave the cap dead config in real operation.
             HerdrPeerLauncher d = route(requestedProfile);
+            // Checked in this order so exhaustion quarantine wins when both are active: quarantine
+            // throws first and short-circuits before the cool-off check ever runs (fleetd #201 Unit 5).
             enforceNotQuarantined(requestedProfile);
+            enforceNotCoolingOff(requestedProfile);
             enforceMaxLoad(requestedProfile);
             PeerHandle handle = d.spawn(req);
             spawnedBy.put(handle.id(), d);
@@ -283,7 +347,10 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         // CB-578 stage B: computed once up front — a quarantine's expiry cannot pass within one spawn
         // call, so re-deriving it per retry would only cost work, never change the answer.
         Set<String> quarantined = quarantinedProfiles(candidates);
-        PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext(roleDefault, candidates, liveCount, unreachable, quarantined);
+        // fleetd #201 Unit 5: a distinct set from quarantined — see PlacementContext.coolingOff.
+        Set<String> coolingOff = coolingOffProfiles(candidates);
+        PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext(roleDefault, candidates, liveCount, unreachable,
+                quarantined, coolingOff);
 
         int maxAttempts = candidates.isEmpty() ? 1 : candidates.size();
         for (int attempt = 0; attempt < maxAttempts; attempt++) {
@@ -313,7 +380,8 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                         chosen.profile(), e.getMessage());
                 unreachable.add(chosen.profile());
                 // Update the context for the next selection so the policy excludes this profile.
-                ctx = new PlacementContext(roleDefault, candidates, liveCount, unreachable, quarantined);
+                ctx = new PlacementContext(roleDefault, candidates, liveCount, unreachable,
+                        quarantined, coolingOff);
             }
         }
 
@@ -379,6 +447,31 @@ public final class CompositePeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
                 .collect(Collectors.toSet());
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Refuse an explicit-profile spawn whose credential is cooling off after repeated backend errors
+     * (fleetd #201 Unit 5 — {@link BackendOutagePolicy}): a SEPARATE, shorter-lived source from
+     * {@link #enforceNotQuarantined}'s exhaustion quarantine. Checked after quarantine so exhaustion
+     * wins when both are active — see the call site in {@link #spawn}.
+     *
+     * @throws PlacementException naming the profile, its credential, and the remaining cool-off
+     */
+    private void enforceNotCoolingOff(String profile) {
+        String credentialId = credentialIdFor(profile);
+        outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds(credentialId).ifPresent(remaining -> {
+            throw new PlacementException("worker profile '" + profile + "' credential '" + credentialId
+                    + "' is cooling off after repeated backend errors; ~" + remaining
+                    + "s remaining — refusing spawn");
+        });
+    }
+
+    /** The subset of {@code candidates} whose credential is currently cooling off (fleetd #201 Unit 5). */
+    private Set<String> coolingOffProfiles(List<PlacementCandidate> candidates) {
+        return candidates.stream()
+                .map(PlacementCandidate::profile)
+                .filter(p -> outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds(credentialIdFor(p)).isPresent())
+                .collect(Collectors.toSet());
+    }
+
     private void enforceMaxLoad(String profile) {
         // Absent config, or a config whose maxLoad normalized to null (ABSENT ⇒ unlimited at load),
         // means no cap — never cap what wasn't configured. Note "non-positive ⇒ unlimited" was true

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/EnvAllowListScrub.java

@@ -143,17 +143,24 @@ public final class EnvAllowListScrub {
     }
 
     /**
-     * chgrp/chmod-equivalent over the freshly generated directory and the startup files already
-     * written into it: owner keeps full access, {@code group} gets traverse+read on the directory
-     * ({@code rwxr-x---}, so a login shell under that group can find and source the files) and
-     * read-only on each file ({@code rw-r-----}) — deliberately no group WRITE anywhere, since a
-     * member never needs to add or change fleetd's own generated scrub. (The scrub script's own
-     * report write inside the pane consequently fails closed rather than open — see {@code
-     * scrub.zsh}'s trailing {@code 2>/dev/null} — which {@link
+     * chgrp/chmod-equivalent over a freshly generated directory and the flat files already written
+     * into it: owner keeps full access, {@code group} gets traverse+read on the directory ({@code
+     * rwxr-x---}, so a member process — a login shell reading it via {@code ZDOTDIR}, or another
+     * process simply opening a file under it — running under that group can find and read the
+     * files) and read-only on each file ({@code rw-r-----}) — deliberately no group WRITE anywhere,
+     * since a member never needs to add or change what fleetd generated. (For the ZDOTDIR scrub
+     * specifically, this also means the scrub script's own report write inside the pane fails
+     * closed rather than open — see {@code scrub.zsh}'s trailing {@code 2>/dev/null} — which {@link
      * dev.ltms.fleet.member.HerdrPeerLauncher#releaseZdotdir} already treats as "cannot be
      * confirmed to have run" rather than success.)
+     *
+     * <p>Package-private and named generically on purpose: fleetd #213 built this for the ZDOTDIR
+     * scrub directory, and fleetd #219 reuses it verbatim for {@link
+     * dev.ltms.fleet.member.OpenCodeLauncher}'s ephemeral {@code opencode.json} directory — both are
+     * "a fleetd-generated directory of flat files that a different-uid member process must read but
+     * never write," so the sharing mechanism is shared rather than copied a second time.
      */
-    private static void shareWithGroup(Path dir, String group) {
+    static void shareWithGroup(Path dir, String group) {
         try {
             GroupPrincipal principal = dir.getFileSystem().getUserPrincipalLookupService()
                     .lookupPrincipalByGroupName(group);
@@ -164,11 +171,11 @@ public final class EnvAllowListScrub {
                 }
             }
         } catch (IOException e) {
-            throw new UncheckedIOException("cannot share generated ZDOTDIR " + dir + " with group '"
+            throw new UncheckedIOException("cannot share generated directory " + dir + " with group '"
                     + group + "' — the group must exist, and the fleetd operator ("
                     + System.getProperty("user.name") + ") must be a member of it", e);
         } catch (UnsupportedOperationException e) {
-            throw new UncheckedIOException("cannot share generated ZDOTDIR " + dir + " with group '"
+            throw new UncheckedIOException("cannot share generated directory " + dir + " with group '"
                     + group + "' — this filesystem does not support POSIX group ownership",
                     new IOException(e));
         }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/HerdrPeerLauncher.java

@@ -3,11 +3,13 @@ package dev.ltms.fleet.member;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Agent;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentStatus;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrClient;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Tab;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Workspace;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.StatusRefiner;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.Capability;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.CharterReceipt;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole;
@@ -151,6 +153,14 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
     private final LongSupplier nowMillis; // monotonic clock (injectable for tests)
     private final Runnable sleeper; // sleep/wait hook (injectable for tests; never real-sleep in unit tests)
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176 fix 2: the same UNKNOWN-refinement {@code dev.ltms.fleet.inject.StatusPoller}
+     * uses, reused here for the spawn-readiness gate. Constructed once from {@link #agents} — see
+     * {@link #refinedInjectable(String, Agent)} for the corroboration that keeps it from firing on
+     * a dead pane's bare shell prompt.
+     */
+    private final StatusRefiner statusRefiner;
+
     // Per-process token mixed into each peer name so a fresh process (nameSeq back at 0) cannot
     // collide with same-profile peers that outlived a restart. See startUniquelyNamed.
     private final String nameNonce = String.format("%06x", new SecureRandom().nextInt(1 << 24));
@@ -174,7 +184,11 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
      */
     private final ConcurrentMap<String, Path> zdotdirByPane = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
 
-    /** Guards {@link #warnNonZsh} to one WARN per launcher instance, not one per spawn. */
+    /**
+     * Guards {@link #warnNonZsh} to one WARN per launcher instance, not one per spawn. fleetd #155:
+     * only the {@code policy: deny-by-default} path still warns on a non-zsh shell — the {@code
+     * policy: allow-list} path refuses the spawn instead (see {@link #applyEnvironmentAllowListPolicy}).
+     */
     private final AtomicBoolean nonZshShellWarned = new AtomicBoolean();
     /** Live config provides URI environment names that must never enter member panes. */
     private final Supplier<FleetConfig> config;
@@ -272,6 +286,7 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         this.memberCredentials = memberCredentials;
         this.hostEnvNames = hostEnvNames != null ? hostEnvNames : () -> System.getenv().keySet();
         this.config = config;
+        this.statusRefiner = new StatusRefiner(agents);
     }
 
     // --- adapter seams -------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -347,6 +362,42 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         return Files.isRegularFile(candidate) ? candidate : null;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Whether {@code cwd} is a fleetd-provisioned git worktree — signalled the same way
+     * {@code ClaudeCodeLauncher#writeIdeOverlay} already gates on: a {@code .git} that is a
+     * <strong>regular file</strong> holding a {@code gitdir:} pointer, as opposed to a real
+     * checkout's {@code .git} <strong>directory</strong>. {@code null}/blank never qualifies.
+     *
+     * <p>Shared by every write (and, since fleetd #249, every identity read) that must land only
+     * in a worktree fleetd itself created for a member — never in a real checkout, an arbitrary
+     * configured directory, or (see the incident below) the daemon's own fallback cwd. Package-
+     * private (not {@code protected}) on purpose: {@link ClaudeCodeLauncher} and
+     * {@link OpenCodeLauncher} both call it, and same-package visibility is enough — no subclass
+     * outside this package needs it.
+     *
+     * <p><b>fleetd #149 incident.</b> {@code ClaudeCodeLauncher#seedTrustDialog} originally ran
+     * unconditionally on any non-blank {@code cwd}. Most of that launcher's OWN tests spawn a
+     * profile with no {@code cwd} configured, so the base class's {@code resolveCwd} falls
+     * through to the real {@code user.dir} — and with no {@code configDir} either (also the
+     * common case in that file's fixtures), the seed's target falls through the same way to the
+     * real {@code ~/.claude.json}. Running this repo's own test suite corrupted the operator's
+     * actual config file (it shrank from ~72 KB to a single seeded entry) the first time a
+     * mutation happened to make the write non-additive. Gating both cwd-targeted writes on "this
+     * is a worktree fleetd provisioned" — exactly the population fleetd #149 describes
+     * ({@code worktree: true} always lands in a brand-new directory) — makes that class of write
+     * impossible against a real checkout or an untouched fallback cwd, in production or in tests.
+     *
+     * <p><b>fleetd #249.</b> The same reasoning extends to a READ: {@code
+     * OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#sessionIdForDirectory} keys on {@code directory}, a heuristic that
+     * is only reliable when the directory is unique to this member — i.e., exactly the population
+     * this gate identifies. {@link OpenCodeLauncher} uses it to withhold {@code agentSessionId()}
+     * (report absence rather than a guess) and to refuse a {@code resumeSessionId} spawn that
+     * cannot be resolved reliably going forward.
+     */
+    static boolean isProvisionedWorktree(String cwd) {
+        return cwd != null && !cwd.isBlank() && Files.isRegularFile(Path.of(cwd, ".git"));
+    }
+
     // --- profile surface -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
     /** The configured peer profile names (what {@code spawn(profile)} accepts). */
@@ -682,6 +733,7 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         // Protocol 19 resolves the executable from the agent kind (== namePrefix here), so
         // argv[0] — the configured executable — is dropped and only the extra args are passed.
         List<String> args = argv.isEmpty() ? argv : argv.subList(1, argv.size());
+        checkPaneCommandFits(cfg, argv);
         HerdrException last = null;
         for (int attempt = 0; attempt < NAME_RETRIES; attempt++) {
             long seq = nameSeq.incrementAndGet();
@@ -697,6 +749,59 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         throw last;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #220: herdr does not exec the launch command — it TYPES it into the pane as one line,
+     * and a pty line buffer holds only {@value #PANE_COMMAND_BYTE_LIMIT} bytes (BSD/macOS {@code
+     * MAX_CANON}). Everything past that byte is dropped. Nothing reports it: herdr answers "agent
+     * started", the backend exits on the mangled argument it was handed, the pane closes, and the
+     * only symptom is {@link #waitUntilInjectableOrThrow} timing out 20 seconds later with no
+     * reason. That is exactly how #214 broke every claude-code spawn — one 50-byte flag pushed a
+     * 978-byte command to 1028, and the tail that got cut was {@code --autocompact 250000}.
+     *
+     * <p>So measure it here and refuse, loudly and immediately, rather than spawn something that
+     * cannot work. The estimate is deliberately conservative: fleetd cannot see herdr's quoting, so
+     * every argument is charged its own bytes plus a separator and a quote pair. An over-estimate
+     * costs a clear error at a length that was already unsafe; an under-estimate would let the
+     * silent truncation back in.
+     *
+     * @throws PeerUnreachableException when the command cannot fit — the same failure the spawn
+     *                                  would have hit anyway, named at the point it is still
+     *                                  explainable
+     */
+    private void checkPaneCommandFits(FleetConfig.Profile cfg, List<String> argv) {
+        int bytes = 0;
+        String longest = null;
+        int longestBytes = 0;
+        for (String arg : argv) {
+            int argBytes = arg == null ? 0 : arg.getBytes(java.nio.charset.StandardCharsets.UTF_8).length;
+            bytes += argBytes + QUOTING_OVERHEAD_PER_ARG;
+            if (argBytes > longestBytes) {
+                longestBytes = argBytes;
+                longest = arg;
+            }
+        }
+        if (bytes <= PANE_COMMAND_BYTE_LIMIT) {
+            return;
+        }
+        String culprit = longest == null ? "<none>"
+                : longest.substring(0, Math.min(longest.length(), 60)) + (longest.length() > 60 ? "…" : "");
+        throw new PeerUnreachableException(
+                "launch command for profile " + cfg.profile() + " is about " + bytes + " bytes, over the "
+                        + PANE_COMMAND_BYTE_LIMIT + "-byte limit of the pane line herdr types it into. "
+                        + "The pty would drop the tail silently and the backend would exit on a mangled "
+                        + "argument. Longest argument is " + longestBytes + " bytes: " + culprit
+                        + " — move it off the command line (a file flag) or shorten it.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The pty line buffer herdr types a launch command into: BSD/macOS {@code MAX_CANON}. Not a
+     * fleetd choice and not configurable — see {@link #checkPaneCommandFits}.
+     */
+    static final int PANE_COMMAND_BYTE_LIMIT = 1024;
+
+    /** Per-argument allowance for the separating space and a shell quote pair fleetd cannot see. */
+    private static final int QUOTING_OVERHEAD_PER_ARG = 3;
+
     /** Start the agent into {@code paneId}, waiting out the seed shell's boot with the sleeper. */
     private Agent startAwaitingShellPrompt(String name, List<String> args, String paneId) {
         HerdrException busy = null;
@@ -855,25 +960,135 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
     // --- spawn-readiness gate (CB-306) ---------------------------------------------------------
 
     /**
-     * Poll {@link AgentControl#status} until the pane reports an injectable state or the configured
+     * Poll {@link AgentControl#get} until the pane reports an injectable state or the configured
      * timeout elapses. On timeout, close the pane (self-reap) and throw.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #176 fix 1: {@code agents.get} was previously unguarded here, so a herdr
+     * {@code *_not_found} answer — which is what happens when the backend process EXITED rather
+     * than being slow — propagated as a raw {@link HerdrException} instead of the
+     * {@link PeerUnreachableException} every other failure path of this gate produces, and skipped
+     * teardown ({@link #stop}) entirely, leaking the pane/tab. {@link #failFastOnGoneBackend} closes
+     * that gap: it stops waiting immediately (never burns the rest of the timeout), runs the same
+     * teardown the timeout path below runs, and throws with a message that says the backend exited
+     * rather than that the pane was slow. Any other {@link HerdrException} still propagates
+     * unchanged — this gate does not know how to recover from it.
      */
     private void waitUntilInjectableOrThrow(String paneId) {
-        long deadline = nowMillis.getAsLong() + spawnReadyTimeoutMs;
+        long start = nowMillis.getAsLong();
+        long deadline = start + spawnReadyTimeoutMs;
+        AgentStatus lastStatus = null;
         while (nowMillis.getAsLong() < deadline) {
-            if (agents.status(paneId).injectable()) {
+            Agent sample;
+            try {
+                sample = agents.get(paneId);
+            } catch (HerdrException e) {
+                if (isAlreadyGone(e)) {
+                    failFastOnGoneBackend(paneId, e, nowMillis.getAsLong() - start);
+                }
+                throw e; // any other herdr failure is not ours to interpret — let it propagate
+            }
+            lastStatus = sample.status();
+            if (lastStatus.injectable() || refinedInjectable(paneId, sample)) {
                 log.debug("peer pane={} reached injectable state", paneId);
                 return;
             }
             sleeper.run();
         }
-        log.warn("peer pane={} did not become injectable within {}ms — closing", paneId, spawnReadyTimeoutMs);
+        // fleetd #220: read the pane BEFORE stop() closes it. Without this the gate says only that
+        // it timed out, which is true of every cause — a backend that never launched, a binary that
+        // rejected an argument and exited, a trust prompt, a login shell that hung. The pane holds
+        // the one copy of that answer and it is destroyed a line later.
+        log.warn("peer pane={} did not become injectable within {}ms (last status {}) — closing. "
+                        + "Pane tail:\n{}",
+                paneId, spawnReadyTimeoutMs, lastStatus, readPaneQuietly(paneId));
         stop(paneId);
         throw new PeerUnreachableException(
                 "worker pane " + paneId + " did not reach injectable state within "
                         + spawnReadyTimeoutMs + "ms");
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176 fix 1: the backend process exited while the gate was still waiting — herdr
+     * answered {@code *_not_found} instead of ever reporting an injectable status. Fails
+     * immediately (never burns the rest of {@link #spawnReadyTimeoutMs}), runs the exact same
+     * teardown {@link #waitUntilInjectableOrThrow}'s timeout path runs, and throws a
+     * {@link PeerUnreachableException} whose message says the process exited rather than that the
+     * pane was slow.
+     *
+     * @throws PeerUnreachableException always — this method never returns normally
+     */
+    private void failFastOnGoneBackend(String paneId, HerdrException cause, long elapsedMs) {
+        String tail = readPaneQuietly(paneId); // read before stop() closes the pane
+        log.warn("peer pane={} backend process exited after {}ms while waiting for injectable "
+                        + "state (herdr: {}) — closing. Pane tail:\n{}",
+                paneId, elapsedMs, cause.getMessage(), tail);
+        stop(paneId);
+        throw new PeerUnreachableException(
+                "worker pane " + paneId + " backend process exited after " + elapsedMs
+                        + "ms while waiting to become injectable (herdr reported: " + cause.getMessage()
+                        + "). Pane tail:\n" + tail);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176 fix 2: resolve a raw {@link AgentStatus#UNKNOWN} sample into a trustworthy
+     * injectable state via pane content, the same refinement {@code StatusPoller} applies during a
+     * peer's working life — but corroborated, because the trap this gate is exposed to that the
+     * poller is not: a pane whose backend has already exited settles at a plain shell prompt, and
+     * that prompt commonly contains the same {@code ❯} glyph {@link StatusRefiner#classify} treats
+     * as "idle at the Claude Code TUI prompt". Naively wiring the refiner in would turn "the backend
+     * died" into "ready to inject" — strictly worse than today's timeout.
+     *
+     * <p>Two guards, both required:
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>{@link StatusRefiner#classify} is written for the Claude Code TUI only (its own javadoc
+     *       says so), so refinement only ever runs for the {@code claude} adapter — never for
+     *       {@code opencode} or any future non-Claude backend, whatever its pane looks like.</li>
+     *   <li>The refined status is accepted only when the <em>same</em> {@code agents.get} sample
+     *       ({@code sample}, taken once by the caller) still reports a non-null
+     *       {@link Agent#agentType()} — herdr's own "a supported backend is still detected here"
+     *       signal, read from the very sample the raw status came from so the two can never
+     *       disagree. A bare shell prompt left by an exited backend reports no {@code agentType}.</li>
+     * </ul>
+     *
+     * <p>Called only when {@code sample.status() == UNKNOWN}, so a healthy spawn — which never sees
+     * {@code UNKNOWN} — triggers zero extra herdr calls; only a persistently-{@code unknown} pane
+     * pays the one extra {@code agent.read} {@link StatusRefiner#refine} performs.
+     */
+    private boolean refinedInjectable(String paneId, Agent sample) {
+        if (sample.status() != AgentStatus.UNKNOWN) {
+            return false;
+        }
+        if (!"claude".equals(namePrefix)) {
+            return false; // StatusRefiner.classify reads a Claude Code TUI prompt specifically
+        }
+        if (sample.agentType() == null) {
+            return false; // no corroborating liveness signal — could be a dead pane's bare shell
+        }
+        return statusRefiner.refine(paneId, AgentStatus.UNKNOWN, agents).injectable();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #220: the pane's recent output, clipped, for the readiness-gate timeout log — or a
+     * short note when it cannot be read. Best-effort by construction: this runs on a path that is
+     * already failing, so it must never replace the real error with one of its own.
+     */
+    private String readPaneQuietly(String paneId) {
+        try {
+            String pane = agents.read(paneId, "recent");
+            if (pane == null || pane.isBlank()) {
+                return "<pane read returned nothing>";
+            }
+            return pane.length() <= SPAWN_FAILURE_PANE_CHARS
+                    ? pane
+                    : pane.substring(pane.length() - SPAWN_FAILURE_PANE_CHARS);
+        } catch (RuntimeException e) {
+            return "<pane could not be read: " + e.getMessage() + ">";
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** How much of a failed spawn's pane the timeout log carries. */
+    private static final int SPAWN_FAILURE_PANE_CHARS = 4000;
+
     /**
      * A concrete {@link PeerHandle} wrapping herdr agent coordinates, the profile that spawned it,
      * the session identity the launch resolved (CB-547a): the bridge's logical name and the peer's
@@ -1044,6 +1259,11 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         if (!creds.isAllowList()) {
             overlayBlockedCredentials(workerEnv, creds);
             logCredentialGap(creds, null);
+            // fleetd #155: this overlay itself does not depend on the shell (it lands in the
+            // pane-creation env map before any shell runs), so the spawn is never refused here —
+            // only policy=allow-list's ZDOTDIR scrub needs a login shell to run at all. Still worth
+            // telling the operator: the stronger post-shell control is unavailable on this shell.
+            warnNonZsh(memberLoginShell());
         }
     }
 
@@ -1096,10 +1316,16 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
      *       dev.ltms.fleet.session.Worktrees#shareWithGroup} already uses, reused rather than
      *       inventing a second group key. Either one missing means the scrub cannot be guaranteed
      *       reachable by the member, which is the same "cannot guarantee the scrub runs" case as a
-     *       non-zsh shell, so it gets the identical fallback.</li>
+     *       non-zsh shell — that one still gets the fallback (see fleetd #155's javadoc note below
+     *       on why a missing worktreeRoot/worktreeGroup is a different defect, out of that ticket's
+     *       scope).</li>
      * </ul>
-     * In every branch: never refuse to spawn. A degraded credential control must not become an
-     * outage for an opt-in feature.
+     * fleetd #155: the one exception to "never refuse to spawn" is a non-zsh login shell, right
+     * below. The operator asked for {@code policy: allow-list} specifically — its whole point is a
+     * control a sourced file cannot undo — so silently degrading to the weaker overlay is exactly
+     * the "silently does nothing" failure this ticket exists to remove. Every other branch in this
+     * method (worktreeRoot/worktreeGroup missing) keeps the old "degrade, never refuse" behaviour;
+     * that gap is real but is fleetd #213's scope, not this one.
      */
     private Path applyEnvironmentAllowListPolicy(FleetConfig.Profile cfg, Launch launch) {
         FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds = memberCredentials == null ? null : memberCredentials.get();
@@ -1113,20 +1339,21 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         // must not even be called on this path, only the explicit memberLoginShell: config can
         // answer it. With memberHerdrSocket absent, nothing here changes: fleetd's own $SHELL is
         // still the input, exactly as before this fix.
-        String loginShell = memberHerdrSocket ? configuredMemberLoginShell() : resolveEnv("SHELL");
+        String loginShell = memberLoginShell();
         boolean zsh = isZshShell(loginShell);
         if (!zsh) {
-            // A non-zsh login shell ignores ZDOTDIR entirely: NO scrub would run, so pretending
-            // otherwise would be worse than saying so. Warn loudly and fall back to the CB-596
-            // sentinel overlay over the enumerated known: names — weaker (a sourced file can undo
-            // it), but strictly better than nothing. Deliberately no "allowed N of M" line here: the
-            // scrub this count describes does not run on this path, so printing it would tell an
-            // operator that a fraction of names were blocked when the real number blocked is zero.
-            // logCredentialGap's WARN (below) is the only signal for this path.
-            warnNonZsh(loginShell);
-            overlayBlockedCredentials(launch.env(), creds);
-            logCredentialGap(creds, null);
-            return null;
+            // fleetd #155: a non-zsh login shell ignores ZDOTDIR entirely — NO scrub would run. The
+            // operator explicitly asked for policy=allow-list's blocking control, so degrading to
+            // the weaker CB-596 overlay and spawning anyway would be the same "control silently does
+            // nothing" defect this ticket exists to close. Refuse instead — the caller (FleetMcp.spawn)
+            // catches IllegalArgumentException and surfaces the message to the operator.
+            throw new IllegalArgumentException(
+                    "memberCredentials policy=allow-list requires the member's login shell to be "
+                            + "zsh, so the ZDOTDIR scrub can run after it — refusing to spawn under "
+                            + "login shell '" + (loginShell == null ? "<unset>" : loginShell)
+                            + "'. Configure memberLoginShell: as a zsh path (only read when "
+                            + "memberHerdrSocket is set), move the member's OS account onto zsh, or "
+                            + "set memberCredentials.policy: deny-by-default instead.");
         }
         Path parentDir;
         String group = null;
@@ -1181,6 +1408,20 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
         return cfg == null ? null : cfg.memberLoginShell();
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #155: the member pane's login shell, using the same {@code memberHerdrSocket} routing
+     * {@link #applyEnvironmentAllowListPolicy} already used — fleetd's own {@code $SHELL} decides it
+     * when {@code memberHerdrSocket} is absent (today's only mode); the configured {@code
+     * memberLoginShell:} decides it otherwise, since fleetd's own {@code $SHELL} names a different
+     * user's shell once member panes run under a different OS user. Shared by both {@link
+     * #applyEnvironmentAllowListPolicy} (allow-list: refuses on non-zsh) and {@link
+     * #applyMemberCredentialPolicy} (deny-by-default: warns on non-zsh) so the two policies agree on
+     * what "the member's shell" means.
+     */
+    private String memberLoginShell() {
+        return memberHerdrSocketConfigured() ? configuredMemberLoginShell() : resolveEnv("SHELL");
+    }
+
     /**
      * fleetd #213: {@code worktreeRoot}, as the ZDOTDIR scrub's parent directory under {@code
      * memberHerdrSocket}, or {@code null} when unconfigured — the same "cannot guarantee the scrub
@@ -1190,8 +1431,13 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
      * provisioning a worktree that will exist regardless, whereas an unconfigured value here means
      * fleetd has no operator-endorsed location to put a credential-bearing directory a different OS
      * user must reach, so falling back to the overlay is the honest answer, not a guess.
+     *
+     * <p>Package-private (fleetd #219) so {@link OpenCodeLauncher} can reuse the exact same
+     * "different OS user, put it under worktreeRoot instead of java.io.tmpdir" resolution for its
+     * own ephemeral {@code opencode.json} directory, rather than re-reading {@code config} a second
+     * time with a second copy of this null/blank handling.
      */
-    private Path memberScrubParentDir() {
+    Path memberScrubParentDir() {
         FleetConfig cfg = config == null ? null : config.get();
         if (cfg == null || cfg.worktreeRoot() == null || cfg.worktreeRoot().isBlank()) {
             return null;
@@ -1204,8 +1450,11 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
      * the group {@link dev.ltms.fleet.session.Worktrees#shareWithGroup} already establishes for
      * provisioned worktrees, rather than a second group key — see {@link
      * #applyEnvironmentAllowListPolicy}.
+     *
+     * <p>Package-private (fleetd #219) — reused by {@link OpenCodeLauncher} alongside {@link
+     * #memberScrubParentDir()}; see that method's javadoc.
      */
-    private String memberGroup() {
+    String memberGroup() {
         FleetConfig cfg = config == null ? null : config.get();
         if (cfg == null || cfg.worktreeGroup() == null || cfg.worktreeGroup().isBlank()) {
             return null;
@@ -1257,15 +1506,23 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
     private static final String SSH_AUTH_SOCK = MemberEnvAllowList.SSH_AUTH_SOCK;
 
     /**
-     * CB-633: a non-zsh login shell means the allow-list control CANNOT run — say so once per
-     * launcher instance, naming the shell, instead of failing silently.
+     * fleetd #155: called ONLY from the {@code policy: deny-by-default} branch of {@link
+     * #applyMemberCredentialPolicy} — under {@code policy: allow-list}, a non-zsh shell now REFUSES
+     * the spawn instead (see {@link #applyEnvironmentAllowListPolicy}), since that policy's whole
+     * point is a control a sourced file cannot undo. deny-by-default's own overlay does not depend
+     * on the shell (it lands in the pane-creation env map before any shell runs), so this is a
+     * heads-up, not a defect report: say once per launcher instance, naming the shell, that the
+     * stronger allow-list control is unavailable here — never silently.
      */
     private void warnNonZsh(String shell) {
+        if (isZshShell(shell)) {
+            return;
+        }
         if (nonZshShellWarned.compareAndSet(false, true)) {
-            log.warn("memberCredentials policy=allow-list: member login shell '{}' is NOT zsh — "
-                            + "ZDOTDIR scrubbing cannot run, so members' inherited environment is "
-                            + "UNPROTECTED beyond the enumerated known: fallback. Move herdr onto a "
-                            + "zsh account or switch policy back to deny-by-default.",
+            log.warn("memberCredentials policy=deny-by-default: member login shell '{}' is NOT zsh — "
+                            + "the pane-creation credential overlay still applies here (it does not "
+                            + "depend on the shell), but policy=allow-list's stronger post-shell "
+                            + "ZDOTDIR scrub is unavailable on this shell.",
                     shell == null ? "<unset>" : shell);
         }
     }
@@ -1378,8 +1635,12 @@ public abstract class HerdrPeerLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
      * through (every production {@code HerdrPeerLauncher} does; a handful of older tests do not) —
      * treated the same as "not configured", which is the correct, permissive default: it is exactly
      * today's single-daemon behaviour.
+     *
+     * <p>Package-private (fleetd #219) — {@link OpenCodeLauncher} reuses this same gate to decide
+     * where its own ephemeral {@code opencode.json} directory (site 1) and its opencode session
+     * discovery (site 2) may run, rather than re-deriving "is this a multi-uid fleet" a second way.
      */
-    private boolean memberHerdrSocketConfigured() {
+    boolean memberHerdrSocketConfigured() {
         if (config == null) {
             return false;
         }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/MemberCredentialPolicyView.java

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.member;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+
+import java.util.List;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #111 (CB-608): a single, testable read of the {@code memberCredentials:} policy — names
+ * and counts only, never a value. The daemon never holds a credential's <em>value</em> in the
+ * first place (only the names configured under {@code known:}/{@code allow:}), so there is
+ * nothing here to redact by construction; the point of this class is that it is the ONE place
+ * that turns a policy into names-and-counts, so nothing else hand-counts a second time.
+ *
+ * <p>Before this class, {@link dev.ltms.fleet.Fleetd#reportMemberCredentialsGap} computed these
+ * same counts inline for the startup log line, and {@code scripts/probe-member-credentials.sh}
+ * carried its own hardcoded {@code NAMES} array that the live policy could grow past silently
+ * (#111) — the exact "hand-maintained second copy drifts" shape #114 fixed for the tool
+ * catalogue. Both now read this class: the startup log via {@link
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.Fleetd#reportMemberCredentialsGap}, and a live daemon via the {@code
+ * GET /member-credentials} REST endpoint ({@link dev.ltms.fleet.rest.FleetApp}), which the probe
+ * script fetches instead of carrying its own list.
+ *
+ * @param present policy configured with at least one {@code known} name. {@code false} for an
+ *                absent or empty {@code memberCredentials:} block — represented honestly as "no
+ *                policy", never as "nothing blocked" (an empty {@link #blocked} could otherwise be
+ *                misread as a clean bill of health).
+ * @param policy  the normalized policy mode ({@link FleetConfig.MemberCredentials#policy()}), or
+ *                {@code null} when {@link #present} is {@code false}.
+ * @param known   every name the policy declares, in configured order. Names only, never a value.
+ * @param allowed the subset of {@link #known} explicitly let through. Names only.
+ * @param blocked {@link #known} minus {@link #allowed} — the names an actual spawn shadows. Names
+ *                only.
+ */
+public record MemberCredentialPolicyView(boolean present, String policy, List<String> known,
+                                          List<String> allowed, List<String> blocked) {
+
+    private static final MemberCredentialPolicyView ABSENT =
+            new MemberCredentialPolicyView(false, null, List.of(), List.of(), List.of());
+
+    public MemberCredentialPolicyView {
+        known = known == null ? List.of() : List.copyOf(known);
+        allowed = allowed == null ? List.of() : List.copyOf(allowed);
+        blocked = blocked == null ? List.of() : List.copyOf(blocked);
+    }
+
+    /** The honest "no policy configured" view. */
+    public static MemberCredentialPolicyView absent() {
+        return ABSENT;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Build the view straight from the live config. {@code creds} may be {@code null} (no {@code
+     * memberCredentials:} block at all) — treated the same as a present-but-empty block, exactly
+     * like {@link dev.ltms.fleet.Fleetd#reportMemberCredentialsGap} already did.
+     */
+    public static MemberCredentialPolicyView of(FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds) {
+        if (creds == null || creds.known().isEmpty()) {
+            return ABSENT;
+        }
+        return new MemberCredentialPolicyView(true, creds.policy(), creds.known(), creds.allow(),
+                List.copyOf(creds.blockedSet()));
+    }
+
+    public int knownCount() {
+        return known.size();
+    }
+
+    public int allowedCount() {
+        return allowed.size();
+    }
+
+    public int blockedCount() {
+        return blocked.size();
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/OpenCodeLauncher.java

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Agent;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustionSink;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.Capability;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.CharterReceipt;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerHandle;
@@ -20,6 +21,9 @@ import java.util.EnumSet;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference;
+import java.util.function.BooleanSupplier;
 import java.util.function.Function;
 import java.util.function.LongSupplier;
 import java.util.function.Supplier;
@@ -71,6 +75,19 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      */
     private final OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery;
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #175: notified when {@link SessionAwareHandle} detects, on the same late-resolve
+     * read that discovers the session id, that the live opencode session is running a DIFFERENT
+     * model than the profile requested — opencode does not fail on an unknown {@code -m}, it
+     * silently falls back to a default (potentially paid) model. Reused exactly as
+     * {@code CompletionResolver}'s {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED} path uses it: this launcher supplies
+     * only the herdr terminal id and a reason string; mapping target → session → profile →
+     * credential stays entirely the sink's job (see {@code Fleetd.main}'s wiring). Defaults to
+     * {@link ExhaustionSink#none()} for a caller (an older constructor, or a test not exercising
+     * this) that opts out.
+     */
+    private final ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink;
+
     /**
      * Production constructor — disables the spawn-ready gate ({@code spawnReadyTimeoutMs == 0}) so it
      * matches the legacy non-blocking spawn semantics. Config dirs are created under the JVM temp dir.
@@ -130,9 +147,25 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
                              Supplier<FleetConfig.Fleet> fleet,
                              Supplier<FleetConfig.MemberCredentials> memberCredentials,
                              Supplier<FleetConfig> config) {
+        this(agents, spaces, profiles, defaultProfile, env, spawnReadyTimeoutMs, spawnReadyPollMs,
+                fleet, memberCredentials, config, ExhaustionSink.none());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Production constructor, plus the live config for URI environment exclusions and the fleetd
+     * #175 model-mismatch quarantine sink.
+     */
+    public OpenCodeLauncher(AgentControl agents, WorkspaceControl spaces,
+                             Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles, String defaultProfile,
+                             Function<String, String> env, long spawnReadyTimeoutMs, long spawnReadyPollMs,
+                             Supplier<FleetConfig.Fleet> fleet,
+                             Supplier<FleetConfig.MemberCredentials> memberCredentials,
+                             Supplier<FleetConfig> config,
+                             ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink) {
         this(agents, spaces, profiles, defaultProfile, env, spawnReadyTimeoutMs,
                 System::currentTimeMillis, () -> sleepUninterruptibly(spawnReadyPollMs),
-                defaultConfigRoot(), defaultDiscoveryRoot(), fleet, memberCredentials, config);
+                defaultConfigRoot(), defaultDiscoveryRoot(), fleet, memberCredentials, config,
+                exhaustionSink);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -180,6 +213,7 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
                 spawnReadyTimeoutMs, nowMillis, sleeper, fleet);
         this.configRoot = configRoot;
         this.discovery = new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(discoveryRoot);
+        this.exhaustionSink = ExhaustionSink.none();
     }
 
     /**
@@ -205,17 +239,72 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
                              Supplier<FleetConfig.Fleet> fleet,
                              Supplier<FleetConfig.MemberCredentials> memberCredentials,
                              Supplier<FleetConfig> config) {
+        this(agents, spaces, profiles, defaultProfile, env, spawnReadyTimeoutMs, nowMillis, sleeper,
+                configRoot, discoveryRoot, fleet, memberCredentials, config, ExhaustionSink.none());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Full testability constructor, plus the live config for URI environment exclusions and the
+     * fleetd #175 model-mismatch quarantine sink — the constructor a test drives directly to
+     * observe {@link ExhaustionSink#onExhausted} without going through {@code Fleetd.main}'s
+     * wiring.
+     */
+    public OpenCodeLauncher(AgentControl agents, WorkspaceControl spaces,
+                             Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles, String defaultProfile,
+                             Function<String, String> env, long spawnReadyTimeoutMs,
+                             LongSupplier nowMillis, Runnable sleeper, Path configRoot, Path discoveryRoot,
+                             Supplier<FleetConfig.Fleet> fleet,
+                             Supplier<FleetConfig.MemberCredentials> memberCredentials,
+                             Supplier<FleetConfig> config,
+                             ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink) {
         super(NAME_PREFIX, agents, spaces, profiles, defaultProfile, env,
                 spawnReadyTimeoutMs, nowMillis, sleeper, fleet, memberCredentials, null, config);
         this.configRoot = configRoot;
         this.discovery = new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(discoveryRoot);
+        this.exhaustionSink = exhaustionSink == null ? ExhaustionSink.none() : exhaustionSink;
     }
 
     private static Path defaultConfigRoot() {
         return Path.of(System.getProperty("java.io.tmpdir"));
     }
 
-    /** The default opencode storage root: {@code ~/.local/share/opencode} (the XDG data dir). */
+    /**
+     * The default opencode storage root: {@code ~/.local/share/opencode} (the XDG data dir) —
+     * always FLEETD's OWN {@code user.home}, whichever OS user runs the daemon.
+     *
+     * <p><b>fleetd #219 site 2 — a decision, not a patch.</b> Under {@code memberHerdrSocket:} the
+     * member pane runs as a <em>different</em> OS user, and opencode writes {@code opencode.db}
+     * under <em>that</em> user's {@code $HOME}, not fleetd's. Scanning fleetd's own {@code
+     * user.home} is therefore looking in the wrong place — a wrong-LOCATION failure, not a
+     * wrong-PERMISSION one like site 1, and it fails quietly: {@link
+     * SessionAwareHandle#agentSessionId()} would keep returning {@code null} forever, which reads
+     * as "opencode does not support resume" rather than "fleetd looked in the wrong home." fleetd
+     * #209 is the reason that silence is unacceptable.
+     *
+     * <p>Three ways to close the gap were weighed:
+     * <ol>
+     *   <li><b>Make the member's home configurable.</b> Correct in principle, but this ticket's
+     *       scope is the two existing call sites, not a new config key — {@code memberHerdrSocket}
+     *       already carries the second herdr's socket path, not its user's home, and inventing a
+     *       parallel key here without also wiring it through discovery's actual callers is a
+     *       half-shipped feature (the exact shape CB-596/CB-611 warn against).</li>
+     *   <li><b>Derive it</b> (e.g. from {@code worktreeRoot}'s owner, or {@code getent passwd}).
+     *       Rejected: nothing in this codebase resolves a Unix username to a home directory today,
+     *       and guessing wrong would silently point discovery at a THIRD wrong location — worse
+     *       than the current gap, because it would look like it should work.</li>
+     *   <li><b>Declare discovery unavailable</b> under {@code memberHerdrSocket}, and say so once,
+     *       loudly, instead of scanning a directory that structurally cannot hold the answer.</li>
+     * </ol>
+     *
+     * <p>Option 3 is taken — the one this ticket says to default to when unsure. {@link
+     * OpenCodeLauncher#spawn} routes {@link SessionAwareHandle#agentSessionId()} through {@link
+     * HerdrPeerLauncher#memberHerdrSocketConfigured()} before ever calling {@link
+     * OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#sessionIdForDirectory}, so under {@code memberHerdrSocket} the
+     * database at this root is never even opened, and one WARN per launcher instance names the gap
+     * instead of the {@code null} return reading as "unsupported." Capability advertising is
+     * unaffected: {@link #capabilities()} always includes {@code SESSION_RESUME}, since {@code
+     * memberHerdrSocket} absent (today's only live mode) is unchanged by this decision.
+     */
     private static Path defaultDiscoveryRoot() {
         return Path.of(System.getProperty("user.home"), ".local", "share", "opencode");
     }
@@ -331,7 +420,7 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      */
     private Path writeConfig(FleetConfig.Profile cfg, String charterText, String cwd) {
         try {
-            Path dir = Files.createTempDirectory(configRoot, "fleetd-opencode-");
+            Path dir = Files.createTempDirectory(configParentDir(), "fleetd-opencode-");
             dir.toFile().deleteOnExit();
 
             ObjectNode root = JSON.createObjectNode();
@@ -402,6 +491,14 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
             // carries operator-supplied values (URL, model id, api key), so escaping must be real.
             Files.writeString(cfgFile, JSON.writerWithDefaultPrettyPrinter().writeValueAsString(root));
             cfgFile.toFile().deleteOnExit();
+            if (memberHerdrSocketConfigured()) {
+                // fleetd #219: the same "different OS user" gap fleetd #213 closed for the ZDOTDIR
+                // scrub — share read-only with worktreeGroup rather than leaving the directory under
+                // fleetd's own 0700 java.io.tmpdir, where the member's OS user could not even
+                // traverse it. memberGroup() cannot be null here: configParentDir() above already
+                // refused this spawn if either worktreeRoot or worktreeGroup was missing.
+                EnvAllowListScrub.shareWithGroup(dir, memberGroup());
+            }
             return cfgFile;
         } catch (IOException e) {
             throw new UncheckedIOException(
@@ -409,6 +506,57 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #219 site 1: where {@link #writeConfig} creates its per-spawn directory.
+     *
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>{@code memberHerdrSocket} ABSENT (today's only mode): byte-identical to before this
+     *       fix — always {@link #configRoot} (defaults to {@code java.io.tmpdir}, fleetd's own
+     *       process).</li>
+     *   <li>{@code memberHerdrSocket} PRESENT: {@code java.io.tmpdir} is fleetd's own per-user temp
+     *       dir (mode {@code 0700} on macOS) — the member pane runs as a DIFFERENT OS user under
+     *       this config key and cannot even traverse it, so the directory holding {@code
+     *       opencode.json} (which tells the member where the bridge MCP is) and the member charter
+     *       would be unreadable to the very process it is written for. The directory instead goes
+     *       under {@code worktreeRoot}, shared read-only with {@code worktreeGroup} via {@link
+     *       EnvAllowListScrub#shareWithGroup} — the SAME mechanism fleetd #213 built for the ZDOTDIR
+     *       scrub, reused here rather than duplicated (see {@link
+     *       HerdrPeerLauncher#memberScrubParentDir()}).</li>
+     * </ul>
+     *
+     * <p><b>Unlike the ZDOTDIR scrub, a missing {@code worktreeRoot}/{@code worktreeGroup} here
+     * REFUSES the spawn instead of degrading.</b> The ZDOTDIR scrub is a credential CONTROL: a
+     * degraded control (CB-596's sentinel overlay) is still worth having. This config file is not a
+     * control — it is the ONLY way the member learns where the bridge MCP lives. Writing it
+     * somewhere the member cannot read would not degrade anything; it would spawn a member that
+     * occupies a pane and never becomes deliverable, since {@code fleet_send} waits ~60s on the
+     * readiness gate and then fails with nothing pointing at a temp directory as the cause. Refusing
+     * up front, with a message that names the missing config key, is the honest failure — an
+     * undeliverable member is not a working spawn either way, so nothing is lost by refusing loudly
+     * instead of failing silently later.
+     *
+     * @throws IllegalStateException when {@code memberHerdrSocket} is configured but {@code
+     *                                worktreeRoot} and/or {@code worktreeGroup} is not
+     */
+    private Path configParentDir() {
+        if (!memberHerdrSocketConfigured()) {
+            return configRoot;
+        }
+        Path root = memberScrubParentDir();
+        String group = memberGroup();
+        if (root == null || group == null) {
+            throw new IllegalStateException("memberHerdrSocket is configured, so opencode's config "
+                    + "directory (opencode.json + member charter) must be placed where the member's "
+                    + "OS user can read it — worktreeRoot, shared via worktreeGroup — but "
+                    + (root == null ? "worktreeRoot" : "worktreeGroup") + " is not configured. "
+                    + "Refusing to spawn rather than write a config the member cannot read: that "
+                    + "member would occupy a pane and never become deliverable, with nothing "
+                    + "pointing at the real cause. Configure both worktreeRoot and worktreeGroup to "
+                    + "enable opencode member spawns under memberHerdrSocket.");
+        }
+        return root;
+    }
+
     /**
      * Declare a custom OpenAI-compatible provider so the worker talks to a pinned endpoint (a local
      * vLLM, say) instead of opencode's default gateway (CB-508).
@@ -517,11 +665,37 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
         return afterScheme.contains("/") ? trimmed : trimmed + "/v1";
     }
 
+    /** One WARN per launcher instance for the fleetd #219 site-2 discovery-unavailable gap. */
+    private final AtomicBoolean discoveryUnavailableWarned =
+            new AtomicBoolean();
+
     /** Add lazy on-disk session discovery to the base handle. */
     @Override
     public PeerHandle spawn(SpawnRequest req) {
+        String cwd = effectiveCwd(req);
+        // fleetd #249: refuse rather than silently resume into unverifiable territory. opencode's
+        // `-s <id>` flag itself resumes precisely — the resolved id is what fails, not the resume —
+        // but resolvedSessionId() below can never confirm (or later re-report) this handle's own
+        // identity without a fleetd-provisioned worktree (isProvisionedWorktree(cwd)), because the
+        // directory is shared and sessionIdForDirectory's "most recently updated row" heuristic can
+        // pick a sibling's session. Refusing here, before anything spawns, beats letting the member
+        // start and only then discovering fleetd can never again verify who it actually is.
+        if (req.resumeSessionId() != null && !req.resumeSessionId().isBlank()
+                && !isProvisionedWorktree(cwd)) {
+            throw new IllegalArgumentException("resumeSessionId requires a fleetd-provisioned "
+                    + "worktree for an opencode profile — without one, this member's cwd is shared "
+                    + "with other sessions, so fleetd can never reliably confirm (now or later) which "
+                    + "conversation it is actually running (fleetd #249). Pass fleet_spawn{worktree:"
+                    + "<ticket-slug>} to resume this member.");
+        }
         PeerHandle inner = super.spawn(req);
-        return new SessionAwareHandle(inner, discovery, effectiveCwd(req));
+        // fleetd #175: the same profile config buildLaunch resolved for this spawn (requireProfile
+        // is deterministic on req.profileName(), so re-resolving here costs a map lookup, not a
+        // second decision) — SessionAwareHandle needs cfg.model() to know what THIS session should
+        // be running.
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = requireProfile(req.profileName());
+        return new SessionAwareHandle(inner, discovery, cwd, cfg,
+                this::memberHerdrSocketConfigured, discoveryUnavailableWarned, exhaustionSink);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -531,16 +705,60 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
      * are untouched — only the opencode-specific identity answer is added. {@code sessionName()}
      * stays null: opencode has no display-name seam, so the logical name lives only in the bridge's
      * roster (see the SESSION_NAME capability).
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #175: {@link #agentSessionId()} is also where the model-mismatch check lives (see
+     * {@link #checkModelMatch()}) — it is the one method the real late-resolve path
+     * ({@code SessionManager.resolveAgentSessionId}, via {@code get}/{@code rosterResolved}/
+     * {@code release}) actually calls, and only while the session id is still unknown. Putting the
+     * check anywhere else risks repeating PR #203's mistake: a check that runs before opencode has
+     * written the row it needs, and so never fires.
      */
     private static final class SessionAwareHandle implements PeerHandle {
         private final PeerHandle delegate;
         private final OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery;
         private final String cwd;
+        private final FleetConfig.Profile cfg;
+        private final BooleanSupplier discoveryUnavailable;
+        private final AtomicBoolean discoveryUnavailableWarned;
+        private final ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink;
+        /** CAS'd true the first (and only) time a model mismatch is reported for this handle. */
+        private final AtomicBoolean modelMismatchReported = new AtomicBoolean();
+        /**
+         * The session id, once {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#sessionIdForDirectory} first
+         * resolves a non-null answer for this handle (fleetd #234). Sticky on purpose: {@code
+         * directory} is a shared-cwd heuristic (see {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery}'s class
+         * javadoc) that can start returning a DIFFERENT row once another session shares the same
+         * directory and writes a newer one — re-deriving it on every call would let this handle's
+         * identity silently drift to a sibling's session. Once resolved, this IS the answer, and
+         * {@link #checkModelMatch} reads only the row this id names, never "whatever is newest in
+         * the directory right now."
+         */
+        private final AtomicReference<String> resolvedSessionId = new AtomicReference<>();
+        /**
+         * fleetd #249: whether {@link #cwd} is a fleetd-provisioned git worktree
+         * ({@link HerdrPeerLauncher#isProvisionedWorktree}), computed once at spawn time since
+         * {@code cwd} never changes for this handle. When {@code false} the directory is shared
+         * with other sessions (the default no-worktree spawn inherits the lead's own cwd), so
+         * {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#sessionIdForDirectory}'s "most recently updated row for
+         * this directory" heuristic can and does pick another session's row — see that class's
+         * javadoc. {@link #agentSessionId()} refuses to guess in that case: it reports absent
+         * rather than a possibly-foreign id.
+         */
+        private final boolean worktreeProvisioned;
 
-        SessionAwareHandle(PeerHandle delegate, OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery, String cwd) {
+        SessionAwareHandle(PeerHandle delegate, OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery, String cwd,
+                            FleetConfig.Profile cfg,
+                            BooleanSupplier discoveryUnavailable,
+                            AtomicBoolean discoveryUnavailableWarned,
+                            ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink) {
             this.delegate = delegate;
             this.discovery = discovery;
             this.cwd = cwd;
+            this.cfg = cfg;
+            this.discoveryUnavailable = discoveryUnavailable;
+            this.discoveryUnavailableWarned = discoveryUnavailableWarned;
+            this.exhaustionSink = exhaustionSink;
+            this.worktreeProvisioned = isProvisionedWorktree(cwd);
         }
 
         @Override
@@ -565,11 +783,122 @@ public final class OpenCodeLauncher extends HerdrPeerLauncher {
 
         @Override
         public String agentSessionId() {
+            // fleetd #219 site 2: under memberHerdrSocket the member pane runs as a different OS
+            // user, so opencode.db lives under THAT user's $HOME, not the one discoveryRoot was
+            // built from (see OpenCodeLauncher#defaultDiscoveryRoot's javadoc for the full
+            // reasoning). Scanning fleetd's own $HOME under that config would only ever find "no
+            // row" and read as "resume unsupported" — declare it unavailable instead, once, loudly.
+            // Checked before the fleetd #249 worktree gate below: this OS-user mismatch makes
+            // discovery unusable regardless of whether cwd happens to be a provisioned worktree, so
+            // it earns the one-time WARN either way.
+            if (discoveryUnavailable.getAsBoolean()) {
+                if (discoveryUnavailableWarned.compareAndSet(false, true)) {
+                    log.warn("opencode session discovery unavailable: memberHerdrSocket is "
+                            + "configured, so opencode's on-disk session database lives under the "
+                            + "MEMBER's own $HOME, not fleetd's ({}) — agentSessionId will stay null "
+                            + "for every opencode member under this config, and SESSION_RESUME "
+                            + "cannot be honored (fleetd #209/#219).",
+                            System.getProperty("user.home"));
+                }
+                return null;
+            }
+            // fleetd #249: cwd is shared with other sessions unless fleetd itself provisioned this
+            // worktree, and sessionIdForDirectory's directory-keyed heuristic cannot tell this
+            // member's row apart from a sibling's in that case (measured: a three-day-old row from
+            // a different profile). Refuse to guess — absent is the honest answer, and it is what
+            // this codebase already returns elsewhere for absent evidence (fleetd #175's UNKNOWN).
+            // No WARN here: unlike discoveryUnavailable above, this is the ordinary, expected shape
+            // of the large majority of spawns (no worktree requested), not a configuration gap.
+            if (!worktreeProvisioned) {
+                return null;
+            }
+            // fleetd #234: once resolved, stay resolved. Re-deriving from `directory` on every call
+            // would let this handle's identity drift to a sibling session that later shares the
+            // same cwd and writes a newer row — see resolvedSessionId's javadoc.
+            String cached = resolvedSessionId.get();
+            if (cached != null) {
+                return cached;
+            }
             // Lazy + retried, never a spawn-time blocker: opencode writes the session record only
             // when the session is first persisted, so null here is the correct interim answer and
             // the caller re-calls later (each call re-scans, picking up a record that has since
             // appeared).
-            return discovery.sessionIdForDirectory(cwd);
+            String id = discovery.sessionIdForDirectory(cwd);
+            if (id != null) {
+                resolvedSessionId.compareAndSet(null, id);
+            }
+            // fleetd #175: check on the SAME tick — while the caller (SessionManager's late-resolve
+            // step) is still re-polling because the id is unknown, the row this id came from (once
+            // it exists) is exactly the row that also carries the actual model. Once id resolves,
+            // the caller stops calling agentSessionId() for this session, so this is naturally a
+            // once-only check that happens right when the row first appears.
+            checkModelMatch(id);
+            return id;
+        }
+
+        /**
+         * Verify the live opencode session is running the model {@link #cfg} requested (fleetd
+         * #175) and, on a real mismatch, log an ERROR and quarantine through {@link
+         * #exhaustionSink}. A no-op when there is nothing to compare against — no model configured,
+         * already reported once for this handle, {@code sessionId} itself is not resolved yet
+         * (fleetd #234: absent evidence, not a mismatch), or the actual model is still UNKNOWN (no
+         * row yet, unreadable database, or unparseable evidence). UNKNOWN must never be treated as
+         * a mismatch: that is the single most important safety rule here — a false positive would
+         * quarantine a perfectly working profile's credential.
+         *
+         * @param sessionId the id {@link #agentSessionId()} just resolved (or had cached) for THIS
+         *                  handle — the model is read back for this exact session (fleetd #234's
+         *                  {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#actualModelForSessionId}), never
+         *                  re-derived from {@code directory}
+         */
+        private void checkModelMatch(String sessionId) {
+            if (modelMismatchReported.get() || cfg.model() == null || cfg.model().isBlank()) {
+                return;
+            }
+            if (sessionId == null || sessionId.isBlank()) {
+                return; // id not resolved yet — UNKNOWN, never a mismatch (fleetd #175's rule)
+            }
+            OpenCodeSessionDiscovery.ActualModel actual = discovery.actualModelForSessionId(sessionId);
+            if (actual == null) {
+                return; // UNKNOWN evidence — never a mismatch
+            }
+            String[] requestedParts = splitProviderModel(cfg.model());
+            String requestedProvider = requestedParts == null ? null : requestedParts[0];
+            String requestedId = requestedParts == null ? cfg.model() : requestedParts[1];
+            boolean idMatches = requestedId.equals(actual.id());
+            // Compare the provider ONLY when BOTH sides have one. requestedProvider == null covers
+            // a bare profile model with no "/" — the profile never asked for a specific provider.
+            // actual.provider() == null covers opencode's model JSON having an id but no providerID
+            // (a real shape parseModel accepts) — that is missing evidence, not a contradiction, and
+            // acceptance rule 4 says missing evidence is UNKNOWN, never a mismatch. Narrowing the
+            // provider comparison this way keeps the id comparison (the part that actually caught the
+            // xf bug) fully intact — a genuine id mismatch is still caught either way (fleetd #175
+            // review round 2).
+            boolean providerMatches = requestedProvider == null || actual.provider() == null
+                    || requestedProvider.equals(actual.provider());
+            if (idMatches && providerMatches) {
+                return;
+            }
+            if (!modelMismatchReported.compareAndSet(false, true)) {
+                return; // another thread already reported this exact mismatch
+            }
+            String actualDisplay = actual.provider() == null
+                    ? actual.id() : actual.provider() + "/" + actual.id();
+            log.error("opencode profile '{}' requested model '{}' but the live session is actually "
+                            + "running '{}' — opencode does not fail on an unknown -m, it silently "
+                            + "falls back to a default model, which may be a PAID credential "
+                            + "(fleetd #175); quarantining this profile's credential",
+                    cfg.profile(), cfg.model(), actualDisplay);
+            // fleetd #234: pass our OWN profile name too. This check fires from agentSessionId(),
+            // called during SessionManager.acquire() BEFORE this session is registered in
+            // sessions.roster() — a roster-only sink (Fleetd's target -> session -> profile lookup)
+            // finds nothing at this point and silently no-ops (defect 2). We already know exactly
+            // which profile to quarantine without the roster; the sink is passed it explicitly.
+            exhaustionSink.onExhausted(delegate.terminalId(),
+                    "opencode model mismatch: profile '" + cfg.profile() + "' requested '"
+                            + cfg.model() + "' but the live session is running '" + actualDisplay
+                            + "' (fleetd #175)",
+                    cfg.profile());
         }
 
         @Override

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/OpenCodeSessionDiscovery.java

@@ -1,9 +1,12 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.member;
 
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
 import org.slf4j.Logger;
 import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 import org.sqlite.SQLiteConfig;
 
+import java.io.IOException;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.sql.Connection;
@@ -29,11 +32,19 @@ import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean;
  * here, so a layout change, or a switch to the HTTP server, changes exactly one class and nothing
  * in {@link OpenCodeLauncher}.
  *
- * <p>The determinism that makes this useful is structural, not a guess: every fleetd worker runs
- * in its own unique git worktree, so the row's {@code directory} (its project root) equals the
- * worker's cwd identifies <em>its</em> session unambiguously. We match on {@code directory} rather
- * than diffing {@code opencode session list} before/after — that races under concurrent spawns, and
- * the CLI listing does not even show the directory.
+ * <p><strong>The {@code directory} match is a heuristic, not an identity — fleetd #234.</strong> A
+ * worktree is opt-in: {@code fleet_spawn} only provisions one when the caller passes {@code
+ * worktree:}; the default spawn inherits the lead's own cwd, which every other worker spawned the
+ * same way (and every past session ever run there) shares. {@code directory} therefore does
+ * <em>not</em> identify a session unambiguously in general — only in the special case of a fresh,
+ * unique worktree does "most recently updated row for this directory" reliably mean "this worker's
+ * own row." {@link #sessionIdForDirectory} still has to use this heuristic (the id has to come from
+ * somewhere, and nothing else is available at this layer — see that method's javadoc), but a caller
+ * that already holds a resolved id must never re-derive evidence about that same session via
+ * {@code directory} again; see {@link #actualModelForSessionId}, which looks up by {@code id}
+ * instead for exactly this reason. We match on {@code directory} rather than diffing
+ * {@code opencode session list} before/after — that races under concurrent spawns, and the CLI
+ * listing does not even show the directory.
  *
  * <p>All reads are best-effort and never throw: a missing or unreadable database, a query that
  * fails, or a directory with no row yet all yield {@code null}, and the caller (the session
@@ -44,6 +55,18 @@ import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean;
 final class OpenCodeSessionDiscovery {
 
     private static final Logger log = LoggerFactory.getLogger(OpenCodeSessionDiscovery.class);
+    private static final ObjectMapper MAPPER = new ObjectMapper();
+
+    /**
+     * The model opencode actually ran a session on, parsed from the {@code session.model} JSON
+     * column (fleetd #175). {@code id} is never null/blank on a non-null {@code ActualModel} —
+     * {@link #parseModel} returns {@code null} instead when {@code id} cannot be determined, so a
+     * caller only ever sees a fully-known record or {@code null} (UNKNOWN). {@code provider} may
+     * still be {@code null} on its own when the profile that requested the session named no
+     * provider prefix, or opencode's JSON omitted {@code providerID}.
+     */
+    record ActualModel(String provider, String id) {
+    }
 
     private final Path storageRoot;   // e.g. ~/.local/share/opencode (injectable for tests)
     private final Path databasePath;
@@ -74,8 +97,16 @@ final class OpenCodeSessionDiscovery {
     /**
      * The opencode session id whose row references {@code directory} (the worker's cwd), or
      * {@code null} when no row matches yet. When several rows share the directory — e.g. repeated
-     * spawns into the same worktree — the row with the highest {@code time_updated} wins: it is
-     * the session the pane most likely corresponds to.
+     * spawns into the same worktree, OR several workers sharing one cwd because none of them was
+     * given a worktree (fleetd #234) — the row with the highest {@code time_updated} wins: it is
+     * the session the pane most likely corresponds to. That "most likely" is a real caveat, not a
+     * formality: when the directory is shared, this can and does pick another session's row (see
+     * the class javadoc). This is the one place fleetd resolves an opencode session id at all —
+     * nothing else is available at this layer to disambiguate further (no {@code opencode session
+     * list} entry names the directory, and diffing before/after races under concurrent spawns) — so
+     * the heuristic stays here unchanged. What must never happen is a SECOND, independent piece of
+     * evidence about the same session being re-derived via {@code directory} once an id has already
+     * come out of this method; see {@link #actualModelForSessionId}.
      *
      * <p>Never throws: a missing {@code opencode.db}, a locked/unreadable database, a query
      * failure, or a directory that has not been persisted yet all resolve to {@code null} rather
@@ -117,4 +148,85 @@ final class OpenCodeSessionDiscovery {
                 storageRoot, directory);
         return null;
     }
+
+    /**
+     * The model opencode actually ran the session {@code sessionId} on (fleetd #175/#234), read by
+     * primary-key lookup — the ONE row that id names, and no other. Deliberately keyed on
+     * {@code id} rather than {@code directory}: two independent {@code WHERE directory = ? ORDER BY
+     * time_updated DESC LIMIT 1} queries (one for the id, one for the model) can each pick a
+     * DIFFERENT row once more than one session shares a directory (fleetd #234 — the default
+     * no-worktree spawn shares the lead's cwd with every other worker and every past session ever
+     * run there), silently comparing a profile's requested model against a session that is not even
+     * the one whose id was returned. Keying on {@code id} instead makes that impossible: the model
+     * read back is always the SAME session {@link #sessionIdForDirectory} (or a cached copy of its
+     * answer) already resolved.
+     *
+     * <p>Kept as its own query and its own connection, independent from {@link
+     * #sessionIdForDirectory}: a database whose schema predates the {@code model} column (or any
+     * other read failure on this column alone) can never take id resolution down with it. That
+     * would be a regression of the id-resolution feature #209 shipped; this method degrades on its
+     * own.
+     *
+     * <p>Never throws, and every failure mode — no matching row, a missing/unreadable database, a
+     * missing {@code model} column, a null/blank {@code model} value, or JSON that does not parse
+     * into {@code {"id": "...", "providerID": "..."}} with a non-blank {@code id} — resolves to
+     * {@code null}. That is UNKNOWN evidence, not a mismatch signal: the caller must never
+     * quarantine a profile on the strength of a {@code null} here. A blank/null {@code sessionId}
+     * (the id is not resolved yet) is UNKNOWN too, for the same reason — never call this with one.
+     *
+     * @param sessionId the session id already resolved by {@link #sessionIdForDirectory} for this
+     *                   spawn — never re-derived from {@code directory} here
+     * @return the actual model, or {@code null} when unknown
+     */
+    ActualModel actualModelForSessionId(String sessionId) {
+        if (sessionId == null || sessionId.isBlank()) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        if (!Files.isRegularFile(databasePath)) {
+            // sessionIdForDirectory already WARNs once (shared warnedMissingDatabase) for this
+            // exact condition — do not double-log it here.
+            return null;
+        }
+        String sql = "SELECT model FROM session WHERE id = ?";
+        try (Connection connection = openReadOnly();
+             PreparedStatement statement = connection.prepareStatement(sql)) {
+            statement.setString(1, sessionId);
+            try (ResultSet rows = statement.executeQuery()) {
+                if (rows.next()) {
+                    return parseModel(rows.getString("model"));
+                }
+            }
+        } catch (SQLException e) {
+            // Locked/corrupt database, or a `model` column this schema version does not have —
+            // never fatal, and never a mismatch signal. See the class doc above.
+            log.debug("opencode session model unreadable at {}: {}", databasePath, e.toString());
+            return null;
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Parse opencode's {@code model} column — {@code {"id":"...","providerID":"..."}} — into an
+     * {@link ActualModel}, or {@code null} when {@code json} is null/blank, is not valid JSON, or
+     * parses without a non-blank {@code id}. {@code providerID} may be absent; that alone does not
+     * make the record unknown, since a caller comparing against a profile with no provider prefix
+     * never looks at it.
+     */
+    private static ActualModel parseModel(String json) {
+        if (json == null || json.isBlank()) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        try {
+            JsonNode node = MAPPER.readTree(json);
+            String id = node.path("id").asText(null);
+            if (id == null || id.isBlank()) {
+                return null;
+            }
+            String provider = node.path("providerID").asText(null);
+            return new ActualModel(provider, id);
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            log.debug("opencode session model JSON unparseable: {}", e.toString());
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/MessageService.java

@@ -746,7 +746,7 @@ public final class MessageService {
                 if (task != null) {
                     asyncTasksByWaiter.put(reply, task);
                 }
-                TurnToken token = new TurnToken(target, reply);
+                TurnToken token = new TurnToken(target, reply, content);
                 // The send has won the lock; the accepted-delivery hook records delegator ownership
                 // here (CB-548). It runs BEFORE enqueue so a throwing hook — onAccepted is now a
                 // public callback — fails the send without queuing a message that would orphan.

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyPushLoop.java

@@ -9,8 +9,10 @@ import org.slf4j.Logger;
 import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 
 import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.Collection;
 import java.util.HashSet;
 import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
 import java.util.concurrent.ScheduledExecutorService;
@@ -68,6 +70,12 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
     static final String QUESTIONS_NUDGE_FORMAT =
             "%d workers are paused on a question — run fleet_poll(ticket=...) for each, then answer "
                     + "with fleet_send(turnId=..., content=...): %s";
+    static final String BACKEND_INCIDENT_NUDGE_FORMAT =
+            "Backend credential %s is cooling for %d remaining seconds; affected profiles: %s; "
+                    + "affected workers: %s. Run fleet_list to see more.";
+    static final String BACKEND_TARGET_UNMAPPED_NUDGE_FORMAT =
+            "A backend error on worker %s could not be mapped to a credential (%s) — no cool-off "
+                    + "was applied. Run fleet_list to check that worker.";
 
     private final PrimaryRegistry primaryRegistry;
     private final AgentControl agents;
@@ -93,6 +101,13 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
      * how depleted an older, still-open question's count is.
      */
     private final ConcurrentHashMap<String, PendingQuestion> pendingQuestions = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+    /** Backend incidents awaiting one successful delivery, keyed by incident id and owning lead. */
+    private final ConcurrentHashMap<IncidentLead, PendingIncident> pendingIncidents = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+    /** Incident/lead pairs already delivered. They make repeated incident reports one-shot. */
+    private final Set<IncidentLead> deliveredIncidents = ConcurrentHashMap.newKeySet();
+    private final ConcurrentHashMap<UnmappedTargetLead, PendingUnmappedTarget> pendingUnmappedTargets =
+            new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+    private final Set<UnmappedTargetLead> deliveredUnmappedTargets = ConcurrentHashMap.newKeySet();
     /** CB-590: leads with an active combined reminder schedule (replies and/or tickets and/or questions). */
     private final ConcurrentHashMap<String, Boolean> activeLeads = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
 
@@ -178,7 +193,20 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
      * tracked per question, not per lead per source).
      */
     private record PendingQuestion(String turnId, String ticket, String target, String lead,
-                                   String question, int nudgeCount) {
+                                    String question, int nudgeCount) {
+    }
+
+    private record IncidentLead(String incidentId, String lead) {
+    }
+
+    private record PendingIncident(IncidentLead key, String credential, List<String> profiles,
+                                   List<String> targets, int remainingCoolOffSeconds, int nudgeCount) {
+    }
+
+    private record UnmappedTargetLead(String target, String reason, String lead) {
+    }
+
+    private record PendingUnmappedTarget(UnmappedTargetLead key, int nudgeCount) {
     }
 
     /** Questions still open for {@code lead}, snapshotted fresh for one tick. */
@@ -192,6 +220,24 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
                 .collect(Collectors.toUnmodifiableSet());
     }
 
+    private List<PendingIncident> pendingIncidentsFor(String lead) {
+        return pendingIncidents.values().stream().filter(i -> lead.equals(i.key().lead())).toList();
+    }
+
+    private Set<IncidentLead> pendingIncidentKeysFor(String lead) {
+        return pendingIncidentsFor(lead).stream().map(PendingIncident::key)
+                .collect(Collectors.toUnmodifiableSet());
+    }
+
+    private List<PendingUnmappedTarget> pendingUnmappedTargetsFor(String lead) {
+        return pendingUnmappedTargets.values().stream().filter(i -> lead.equals(i.key().lead())).toList();
+    }
+
+    private Set<UnmappedTargetLead> pendingUnmappedTargetKeysFor(String lead) {
+        return pendingUnmappedTargetsFor(lead).stream().map(PendingUnmappedTarget::key)
+                .collect(Collectors.toUnmodifiableSet());
+    }
+
     /**
      * The reply-source reminder count {@link #decide} should see for {@code lead} on this tick:
      * the <em>minimum</em> nudge count among the reply targets currently pending for it (CB-598).
@@ -236,6 +282,15 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         return min == Integer.MAX_VALUE ? 0 : min;
     }
 
+    private int minIncidentNudgeCountFor(String lead) {
+        return pendingIncidentsFor(lead).stream().mapToInt(PendingIncident::nudgeCount).min().orElse(0);
+    }
+
+    private int minUnmappedTargetNudgeCountFor(String lead) {
+        return pendingUnmappedTargetsFor(lead).stream().mapToInt(PendingUnmappedTarget::nudgeCount)
+                .min().orElse(0);
+    }
+
     /**
      * Pure decision function: examine everything pending for {@code lead} — reply targets and
      * tickets alike — and return what the loop should do.
@@ -272,17 +327,35 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
      * @param questionReminderCount the lowest nudge count among questions open for this lead
      */
     Action decide(String lead, int replyReminderCount, int ticketReminderCount, int questionReminderCount) {
+        return decide(lead, replyReminderCount, ticketReminderCount, questionReminderCount,
+                minIncidentNudgeCountFor(lead));
+    }
+
+    /** As above, with backend incidents as a fourth, independently bounded source. */
+    Action decide(String lead, int replyReminderCount, int ticketReminderCount, int questionReminderCount,
+                  int incidentReminderCount) {
+        return decide(lead, replyReminderCount, ticketReminderCount, questionReminderCount,
+                incidentReminderCount, minUnmappedTargetNudgeCountFor(lead));
+    }
+
+    /** As above, with unmapped backend targets as a fifth, independently bounded source. */
+    Action decide(String lead, int replyReminderCount, int ticketReminderCount, int questionReminderCount,
+                  int incidentReminderCount, int unmappedTargetReminderCount) {
         boolean hasReplyWork = !pendingReplyTargetsFor(lead).isEmpty();
         boolean hasTicketWork = !pendingTicketIdsFor(lead).isEmpty();
         boolean hasQuestionWork = !pendingQuestionTurnIdsFor(lead).isEmpty();
-        if (!hasReplyWork && !hasTicketWork && !hasQuestionWork) {
+        boolean hasIncidentWork = !pendingIncidentKeysFor(lead).isEmpty();
+        boolean hasUnmappedTargetWork = !pendingUnmappedTargetKeysFor(lead).isEmpty();
+        if (!hasReplyWork && !hasTicketWork && !hasQuestionWork && !hasIncidentWork && !hasUnmappedTargetWork) {
             log.debug("push: nothing pending for lead {}, stopping reminder", lead);
             return Action.STOP;
         }
         boolean replyEligible = hasReplyWork && replyReminderCount < maxReminders;
         boolean ticketEligible = hasTicketWork && ticketReminderCount < maxReminders;
         boolean questionEligible = hasQuestionWork && questionReminderCount < maxReminders;
-        if (!replyEligible && !ticketEligible && !questionEligible) {
+        boolean incidentEligible = hasIncidentWork && incidentReminderCount < maxReminders;
+        boolean unmappedTargetEligible = hasUnmappedTargetWork && unmappedTargetReminderCount < maxReminders;
+        if (!replyEligible && !ticketEligible && !questionEligible && !incidentEligible && !unmappedTargetEligible) {
             log.debug("push: reminder cap ({}) reached for lead {} on every source with pending work, stopping",
                     maxReminders, lead);
             countNudge("exhausted");
@@ -394,6 +467,48 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         pendingQuestions.remove(turnId);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Queue a one-shot backend credential outage notice for every distinct lead that owns an
+     * affected worker. A successful injection records its {@code (incidentId, lead)} key, so a
+     * repeat report never reminds that lead again.
+     */
+    public void onBackendIncident(String incidentId, Collection<String> targets, String credential,
+                                  Collection<String> profiles, int remainingCoolOffSeconds) {
+        Map<String, List<String>> targetsByLead = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+        for (String target : targets) {
+            var lead = primaryRegistry.nudgeTargetFor(target);
+            if (lead.isEmpty()) {
+                log.warn("push: backend incident {} has no known lead for target {}", incidentId, target);
+                continue;
+            }
+            targetsByLead.computeIfAbsent(lead.get(), _ -> new ArrayList<>()).add(target);
+        }
+        List<String> profileNames = profiles.stream().sorted().toList();
+        for (var entry : targetsByLead.entrySet()) {
+            IncidentLead key = new IncidentLead(incidentId, entry.getKey());
+            if (deliveredIncidents.contains(key)) continue;
+            pendingIncidents.putIfAbsent(key, new PendingIncident(key, credential, profileNames,
+                    entry.getValue().stream().sorted().toList(), remainingCoolOffSeconds, 0));
+            startOrCoalesce(entry.getKey());
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Tell the owning lead that a classified backend error could not be tied to a credential.
+     * Without an owning lead, emit a warning because no control can act on the target.
+     */
+    public void onBackendTargetUnmapped(String target, String reason) {
+        var lead = primaryRegistry.nudgeTargetFor(target);
+        if (lead.isEmpty()) {
+            log.warn("push: backend target {} could not map to a credential: {}", target, reason);
+            return;
+        }
+        UnmappedTargetLead key = new UnmappedTargetLead(target, reason, lead.get());
+        if (deliveredUnmappedTargets.contains(key)) return;
+        pendingUnmappedTargets.putIfAbsent(key, new PendingUnmappedTarget(key, 0));
+        startOrCoalesce(lead.get());
+    }
+
     // --- the schedule ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
     /** Start a reminder schedule for {@code lead}, or join the one already running. */
@@ -425,18 +540,25 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         Set<String> repliesBefore = pendingReplyTargetsFor(lead);
         Set<String> ticketsBefore = pendingTicketIdsFor(lead);
         Set<String> questionsBefore = pendingQuestionTurnIdsFor(lead);
+        Set<IncidentLead> incidentsBefore = pendingIncidentKeysFor(lead);
+        Set<UnmappedTargetLead> unmappedTargetsBefore = pendingUnmappedTargetKeysFor(lead);
         int replyReminderCount = minReplyNudgeCountFor(lead);
         int ticketReminderCount = minTicketNudgeCountFor(lead);
         int questionReminderCount = minQuestionNudgeCountFor(lead);
-        var action = decide(lead, replyReminderCount, ticketReminderCount, questionReminderCount);
+        int incidentReminderCount = minIncidentNudgeCountFor(lead);
+        int unmappedTargetReminderCount = minUnmappedTargetNudgeCountFor(lead);
+        var action = decide(lead, replyReminderCount, ticketReminderCount, questionReminderCount,
+                incidentReminderCount, unmappedTargetReminderCount);
         switch (action) {
             case INJECT -> {
-                injectNudge(lead, replyReminderCount, ticketReminderCount, questionReminderCount);
+                injectNudge(lead, replyReminderCount, ticketReminderCount, questionReminderCount,
+                        incidentReminderCount, unmappedTargetReminderCount);
                 scheduleNext(lead);
             }
             // Re-check after the configured backoff; the lead may become injectable soon.
             case WAIT_BUSY -> scheduleNext(lead);
-            case STOP -> stopOrRestart(lead, repliesBefore, ticketsBefore, questionsBefore);
+            case STOP -> stopOrRestart(lead, repliesBefore, ticketsBefore, questionsBefore, incidentsBefore,
+                    unmappedTargetsBefore);
         }
     }
 
@@ -480,11 +602,25 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
      * decision-to-release window reclaims the schedule slot exactly like a raced-in reply or ticket.
      */
     void stopOrRestart(String lead, Set<String> repliesBefore, Set<String> ticketsBefore,
-                       Set<String> questionsBefore) {
+                        Set<String> questionsBefore) {
+        stopOrRestart(lead, repliesBefore, ticketsBefore, questionsBefore, pendingIncidentKeysFor(lead));
+    }
+
+    private void stopOrRestart(String lead, Set<String> repliesBefore, Set<String> ticketsBefore,
+                               Set<String> questionsBefore, Set<IncidentLead> incidentsBefore) {
+        stopOrRestart(lead, repliesBefore, ticketsBefore, questionsBefore, incidentsBefore,
+                pendingUnmappedTargetKeysFor(lead));
+    }
+
+    private void stopOrRestart(String lead, Set<String> repliesBefore, Set<String> ticketsBefore,
+                               Set<String> questionsBefore, Set<IncidentLead> incidentsBefore,
+                               Set<UnmappedTargetLead> unmappedTargetsBefore) {
         activeLeads.remove(lead);
         boolean racedIn = pendingReplyTargetsFor(lead).stream().anyMatch(t -> !repliesBefore.contains(t))
                 || pendingTicketIdsFor(lead).stream().anyMatch(t -> !ticketsBefore.contains(t))
-                || pendingQuestionTurnIdsFor(lead).stream().anyMatch(t -> !questionsBefore.contains(t));
+                || pendingQuestionTurnIdsFor(lead).stream().anyMatch(t -> !questionsBefore.contains(t))
+                || pendingIncidentKeysFor(lead).stream().anyMatch(i -> !incidentsBefore.contains(i))
+                || pendingUnmappedTargetKeysFor(lead).stream().anyMatch(i -> !unmappedTargetsBefore.contains(i));
         if (racedIn && activeLeads.putIfAbsent(lead, Boolean.TRUE) == null) {
             log.debug("push: new work for lead {} raced the reminder loop's stop — restarting", lead);
             scheduleNext(lead);
@@ -495,18 +631,22 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
 
     /** Send one combined nudge covering everything currently pending for {@code lead}. */
     private void injectNudge(String lead, int replyReminderCount, int ticketReminderCount,
-                             int questionReminderCount) {
+                              int questionReminderCount, int incidentReminderCount,
+                              int unmappedTargetReminderCount) {
         // Re-read rather than threading it down from decide(): a reply can drain, a ticket be
         // collected, or a question be answered (or another arrive), between the decision and the
         // injection.
         Set<String> replyTargets = pendingReplyTargetsFor(lead);
         List<PendingTicket> tickets = pendingTicketsFor(lead);
         List<PendingQuestion> questions = pendingQuestionsFor(lead);
-        if (replyTargets.isEmpty() && tickets.isEmpty() && questions.isEmpty()) {
+        List<PendingIncident> incidents = pendingIncidentsFor(lead);
+        List<PendingUnmappedTarget> unmappedTargets = pendingUnmappedTargetsFor(lead);
+        if (replyTargets.isEmpty() && tickets.isEmpty() && questions.isEmpty() && incidents.isEmpty()
+                && unmappedTargets.isEmpty()) {
             log.debug("push: pending work for lead {} drained before the nudge could be sent", lead);
             return;
         }
-        String nudge = formatNudge(replyTargets, tickets, questions);
+        String nudge = formatNudge(replyTargets, tickets, questions, incidents, unmappedTargets);
         try {
             agents.send(lead, nudge);
             log.debug("push: nudge sent to lead {} (reply {}/{}, ticket {}/{}, question {}/{}; "
@@ -515,6 +655,16 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
                     questionReminderCount + 1, maxReminders,
                     replyTargets.size(), tickets.size(), questions.size());
             countNudge("delivered");
+            for (PendingIncident incident : incidents) {
+                if (pendingIncidents.remove(incident.key(), incident)) {
+                    deliveredIncidents.add(incident.key());
+                }
+            }
+            for (PendingUnmappedTarget unmappedTarget : unmappedTargets) {
+                if (pendingUnmappedTargets.remove(unmappedTarget.key(), unmappedTarget)) {
+                    deliveredUnmappedTargets.add(unmappedTarget.key());
+                }
+            }
         } catch (RuntimeException e) {
             log.warn("push: failed to nudge lead {} (reply {}/{}, ticket {}/{}, question {}/{}): {}",
                     lead, replyReminderCount + 1, maxReminders, ticketReminderCount + 1, maxReminders,
@@ -526,12 +676,13 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         // item already at or over the cap keeps riding along in the text (still pending, still
         // named) but its extra bumps here are inert: decide() already treats it as ineligible once
         // its count reaches maxReminders.
-        bumpNudgeCounts(replyTargets, tickets, questions);
+        bumpNudgeCounts(replyTargets, tickets, questions, incidents, unmappedTargets);
     }
 
     /** Record that every one of these items was just named in a sent (or attempted) nudge. */
     private void bumpNudgeCounts(Set<String> replyTargets, List<PendingTicket> tickets,
-                                 List<PendingQuestion> questions) {
+                                  List<PendingQuestion> questions, List<PendingIncident> incidents,
+                                  List<PendingUnmappedTarget> unmappedTargets) {
         for (String target : replyTargets) {
             pendingReplies.computeIfPresent(target, (t, e) -> new ReplyEntry(e.lead(), e.nudgeCount() + 1));
         }
@@ -544,6 +695,14 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
                     new PendingQuestion(e.turnId(), e.ticket(), e.target(), e.lead(), e.question(),
                             e.nudgeCount() + 1));
         }
+        for (PendingIncident incident : incidents) {
+            pendingIncidents.computeIfPresent(incident.key(), (id, e) -> new PendingIncident(e.key(),
+                    e.credential(), e.profiles(), e.targets(), e.remainingCoolOffSeconds(), e.nudgeCount() + 1));
+        }
+        for (PendingUnmappedTarget unmappedTarget : unmappedTargets) {
+            pendingUnmappedTargets.computeIfPresent(unmappedTarget.key(), (id, e) ->
+                    new PendingUnmappedTarget(e.key(), e.nudgeCount() + 1));
+        }
     }
 
     /** Schedule the next tick on the scheduler thread pool. */
@@ -556,7 +715,8 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
 
     /** Render everything pending for one lead as a single nudge line. */
     private static String formatNudge(Set<String> replyTargets, List<PendingTicket> tickets,
-                                      List<PendingQuestion> questions) {
+                                       List<PendingQuestion> questions, List<PendingIncident> incidents,
+                                       List<PendingUnmappedTarget> unmappedTargets) {
         List<String> parts = new ArrayList<>();
         if (!replyTargets.isEmpty()) {
             parts.add(formatRepliesNudge(replyTargets));
@@ -567,6 +727,12 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         if (!questions.isEmpty()) {
             parts.add(formatQuestionsNudge(questions));
         }
+        if (!incidents.isEmpty()) {
+            parts.addAll(incidents.stream().map(ReplyPushLoop::formatBackendIncidentNudge).toList());
+        }
+        if (!unmappedTargets.isEmpty()) {
+            parts.addAll(unmappedTargets.stream().map(ReplyPushLoop::formatUnmappedTargetNudge).toList());
+        }
         return String.join(" | ", parts);
     }
 
@@ -606,6 +772,16 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         return QUESTIONS_NUDGE_FORMAT.formatted(pending.size(), ids);
     }
 
+    private static String formatBackendIncidentNudge(PendingIncident incident) {
+        return BACKEND_INCIDENT_NUDGE_FORMAT.formatted(incident.credential(), incident.remainingCoolOffSeconds(),
+                String.join(", ", incident.profiles()), String.join(", ", incident.targets()));
+    }
+
+    private static String formatUnmappedTargetNudge(PendingUnmappedTarget unmappedTarget) {
+        return BACKEND_TARGET_UNMAPPED_NUDGE_FORMAT.formatted(unmappedTarget.key().target(),
+                unmappedTarget.key().reason());
+    }
+
     // --- lifecycle -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
     /**
@@ -627,6 +803,10 @@ public final class ReplyPushLoop {
         pendingReplies.clear();
         pendingTickets.clear();
         pendingQuestions.clear();
+        pendingIncidents.clear();
+        deliveredIncidents.clear();
+        pendingUnmappedTargets.clear();
+        deliveredUnmappedTargets.clear();
     }
 
     /** @see #stop() */

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/TurnToken.java

@@ -9,12 +9,19 @@ import java.util.concurrent.CompletableFuture;
 public final class TurnToken {
     private final String target;
     private final CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter;
+    private final String injectedText;
 
     public TurnToken(String target, CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter) {
+        this(target, waiter, null);
+    }
+
+    public TurnToken(String target, CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter, String injectedText) {
         this.target = target;
         this.waiter = waiter;
+        this.injectedText = injectedText;
     }
 
     public String target() { return target; }
     public CompletableFuture<Rendezvous.Resolution> waiter() { return waiter; }
+    public String injectedText() { return injectedText; }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/BackendOutagePolicy.java

@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.placement;
+
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Objects;
+import java.util.Optional;
+import java.util.OptionalLong;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.ConcurrentHashMap;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference;
+import java.util.function.LongSupplier;
+
+/**
+ * Fleetd #201 / #227: correlates classified backend errors (credential outage or provider 5xx,
+ * produced elsewhere by the classifier that turns raw pane text into a typed event — this class
+ * knows nothing about pane text, profiles, sessions, launchers, or leads) and decides, purely from
+ * counts and timing, when a credential's backend is out.
+ *
+ * <p>Two classified errors on the <b>same credential</b> — never the profile name, never the error
+ * text, see {@code FleetConfig.Profile#effectiveCredentialId()} like {@link BackendQuarantine} —
+ * <b>from two distinct targets</b> inside a 60-second window is treated as an outage: {@link
+ * #record} then returns an {@link Incident} and starts a 60-second cool-off for that credential. The
+ * threshold counts distinct targets, not raw events, on purpose: the classifier is a heuristic and a
+ * valid member report can quote an {@code API Error:} line, so one target repeating that line twice
+ * must never remove fleet capacity by itself. Two different targets independently producing a
+ * classified error is far less likely to be a coincidence, and a real backend outage hits every
+ * target on that credential anyway, so this loses nothing against the case being protected against.
+ * This is deliberately a different store from {@link BackendQuarantine}: that one holds a
+ * 1800-second exhaustion cooldown for a spent credential, and reusing it here would both use the
+ * wrong duration and report "backend exhausted" for what is a short transient fault.
+ *
+ * <p>Correlation and cool-off live in <b>one class</b> so that crossing the threshold and setting
+ * the cool-off deadline happen as a single atomic update: every {@link #record} call goes through
+ * {@link ConcurrentHashMap#compute}, which serializes on the credential's map bucket, so a
+ * concurrent second and third event on the same credential can never both observe "about to cross"
+ * and both mint an incident.
+ *
+ * <p>The clock is injected ({@link LongSupplier}, conventionally {@code System::nanoTime} like
+ * {@link BackendQuarantine}), never read inline, so the window and cool-off are testable without a
+ * real sleep.
+ */
+public final class BackendOutagePolicy {
+
+    /** Distinct targets a credential needs a classified error from to declare an outage. */
+    public static final int THRESHOLD = 2;
+
+    /** How long a credential's evidence stays fresh, inclusive of both endpoints. */
+    public static final long WINDOW_NANOS = 60_000_000_000L;
+
+    /** How long a credential sits out once the threshold is crossed. */
+    public static final long COOLOFF_NANOS = 60_000_000_000L;
+
+    private final ConcurrentHashMap<String, CredentialState> states = new ConcurrentHashMap<>();
+    private final LongSupplier nowNanos;
+    private final AtomicLong incidentSequence = new AtomicLong();
+
+    public BackendOutagePolicy(LongSupplier nowNanos) {
+        this.nowNanos = Objects.requireNonNull(nowNanos, "nowNanos");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Records one classified backend error for {@code credentialId} against {@code target} (e.g. a
+     * session or worker id — this class never interprets it, only collects it for the incident's
+     * affected-targets list, and counts distinct targets toward the threshold) with {@code reason}
+     * (the classifier's free-text reason, kept per event for whoever renders the eventual notice —
+     * every event's reason is kept even when the same target repeats, so {@link Incident#reasons()}
+     * can be longer than {@link Incident#evidenceCount()}).
+     *
+     * <p>Returns a populated {@link Incident} only at the exact moment a <b>second distinct target</b>
+     * is seen for this credential inside the window — never before, and never again while the
+     * resulting cool-off is active. A repeat error from a target already counted does not advance the
+     * threshold. While a credential is cooling off, a fresh error is ignored outright: it neither
+     * extends the deadline nor produces another incident. Once the cool-off has elapsed, the next
+     * error clears the old evidence and starts a brand-new window — two fresh, distinct targets are
+     * required to rearm.
+     */
+    public Optional<Incident> record(String credentialId, String target, String reason) {
+        Objects.requireNonNull(credentialId, "credentialId");
+        Objects.requireNonNull(target, "target");
+        Objects.requireNonNull(reason, "reason");
+        long now = nowNanos.getAsLong();
+
+        AtomicReference<Incident> minted = new AtomicReference<>();
+        states.compute(credentialId, (_, existing) -> {
+            CredentialState state = existing;
+
+            if (state != null && state.inCoolOff()) {
+                if (now < state.coolOffUntilNanos) {
+                    return state; // still cooling off: no extension, no incident
+                }
+                state = null; // cool-off elapsed: evidence is cleared, rearm from scratch
+            }
+
+            if (state == null || now - state.firstEventNanos > WINDOW_NANOS) {
+                return CredentialState.first(now, target, reason);
+            }
+
+            CredentialState advanced = state.withAdditionalEvidence(target, reason);
+            if (advanced.evidenceCount() < THRESHOLD) {
+                return advanced;
+            }
+
+            long coolOffUntilNanos = now + COOLOFF_NANOS;
+            minted.set(new Incident(
+                    "outage-" + credentialId + "-" + incidentSequence.incrementAndGet(),
+                    credentialId,
+                    Set.copyOf(advanced.targets),
+                    advanced.evidenceCount(),
+                    toSecondsRoundedUp(WINDOW_NANOS),
+                    toSecondsRoundedUp(COOLOFF_NANOS),
+                    List.copyOf(advanced.reasons)));
+            return advanced.enteringCoolOff(coolOffUntilNanos);
+        });
+
+        return Optional.ofNullable(minted.get());
+    }
+
+    /** Seconds left on {@code credentialId}'s cool-off, or empty when it is not cooling off. */
+    public OptionalLong remainingCoolOffSeconds(String credentialId) {
+        Objects.requireNonNull(credentialId, "credentialId");
+        CredentialState state = states.get(credentialId);
+        if (state == null || !state.inCoolOff()) {
+            return OptionalLong.empty();
+        }
+        long remaining = state.coolOffUntilNanos - nowNanos.getAsLong();
+        return remaining > 0 ? OptionalLong.of(toSecondsRoundedUp(remaining)) : OptionalLong.empty();
+    }
+
+    private static long toSecondsRoundedUp(long nanos) {
+        return (nanos + 999_999_999L) / 1_000_000_000L;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * One credential crossing the outage threshold. {@code remainingCoolOffSeconds} is the cool-off
+     * length as observed at the moment of minting — this incident is only ever produced right as the
+     * cool-off starts, so it is always the full {@link #COOLOFF_NANOS} rounded up.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code evidenceCount} is {@code targets.size()} — the threshold is on distinct targets, not
+     * raw events — while {@code reasons} keeps every event's reason, including repeats from a target
+     * already counted. The two are deliberately different lengths: a single target hammering the same
+     * classified error never grows {@code evidenceCount} past 1, but each occurrence still lands in
+     * {@code reasons} for whoever renders the notice.
+     */
+    public record Incident(
+            String id,
+            String credentialId,
+            Set<String> targets,
+            int evidenceCount,
+            long windowSeconds,
+            long remainingCoolOffSeconds,
+            List<String> reasons) {
+    }
+
+    /** Evidence accumulated for one credential since its window opened, or its active cool-off. */
+    private static final class CredentialState {
+        final long firstEventNanos;
+        final Set<String> targets;
+        final List<String> reasons;
+        final long coolOffUntilNanos; // 0 means "not cooling off"
+
+        private CredentialState(long firstEventNanos, Set<String> targets, List<String> reasons,
+                long coolOffUntilNanos) {
+            this.firstEventNanos = firstEventNanos;
+            this.targets = targets;
+            this.reasons = reasons;
+            this.coolOffUntilNanos = coolOffUntilNanos;
+        }
+
+        static CredentialState first(long nowNanos, String target, String reason) {
+            Set<String> targets = new LinkedHashSet<>();
+            targets.add(target);
+            List<String> reasons = new ArrayList<>();
+            reasons.add(reason);
+            return new CredentialState(nowNanos, targets, reasons, 0L);
+        }
+
+        CredentialState withAdditionalEvidence(String target, String reason) {
+            Set<String> newTargets = new LinkedHashSet<>(targets);
+            newTargets.add(target);
+            List<String> newReasons = new ArrayList<>(reasons);
+            newReasons.add(reason);
+            return new CredentialState(firstEventNanos, newTargets, newReasons, 0L);
+        }
+
+        CredentialState enteringCoolOff(long coolOffUntilNanos) {
+            return new CredentialState(firstEventNanos, targets, reasons, coolOffUntilNanos);
+        }
+
+        /** Distinct targets seen so far — the threshold counts this, never {@code reasons.size()}. */
+        int evidenceCount() {
+            return targets.size();
+        }
+
+        boolean inCoolOff() {
+            return coolOffUntilNanos > 0;
+        }
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/FixedPlacementPolicy.java

@@ -1,55 +1,68 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.placement;
 
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.List;
+
 /**
  * Backward-compatible placement: an unqualified spawn always resolves to the configured default
  * profile, exactly as {@code CompositePeerLauncher} did before CB-518. This ignores caps and
  * reachability so that a pre-existing config behaves identically after upgrade.
  *
- * <p>Two exceptions walk past the default instead of returning it unconditionally:
+ * <p>Three exceptions walk past the default instead of returning it unconditionally:
  * <ul>
  *   <li>Quarantine (CB-578 stage B): a quarantined default is a credential that just refused on
  *       a usage limit, not a transient capacity or reachability concern.
+ *   <li>Cooling off (fleetd #201 Unit 5): a credential cooling off after repeated backend errors
+ *       ({@code BackendOutagePolicy}) — a separate, shorter-lived source from quarantine. When a
+ *       profile is both quarantined and cooling off, only the quarantine reason is reported
+ *       (exhaustion takes priority), matching {@code CompositePeerLauncher}'s explicit-spawn order.
  *   <li>Weight 0 (CB-554): {@code fixed} is still automatic selection, so a profile the operator
  *       marked "never auto-select me" ({@code weight <= 0}) must be skipped here exactly as
  *       {@code weighted}/{@code round-robin} skip it — an explicit {@code fleet_spawn} naming
  *       the profile is unaffected, only this automatic fallback walk.
  * </ul>
- * A fleet where nothing is ever quarantined or weight-0 never exercises either path, so today's
- * behaviour is unchanged.
+ * A fleet where nothing is ever quarantined, cooling off, or weight-0 never exercises any of these
+ * paths, so today's behaviour is unchanged.
  */
 final class FixedPlacementPolicy implements PlacementPolicy {
 
     @Override
     public PlacementCandidate select(PlacementContext ctx) {
         String d = ctx.defaultProfile();
-        if (d != null && !d.isBlank() && !ctx.quarantined().contains(d) && !weightExcluded(ctx, d)) {
+        if (d != null && !d.isBlank() && !ctx.quarantined().contains(d) && !ctx.coolingOff().contains(d)
+                && !weightExcluded(ctx, d)) {
             return new PlacementCandidate(d, null, 1.0f, null);
         }
         for (PlacementCandidate c : ctx.candidates()) {
-            if (!ctx.quarantined().contains(c.profile()) && !c.excluded()) {
+            if (!ctx.quarantined().contains(c.profile()) && !ctx.coolingOff().contains(c.profile())
+                    && !c.excluded()) {
                 return new PlacementCandidate(c.profile(), null, c.weight(), c.maxLoad());
             }
         }
         if (d != null && !d.isBlank()) {
             boolean dQuarantined = ctx.quarantined().contains(d);
+            // Exhaustion quarantine takes priority: reported only when quarantine is absent, so the
+            // message never claims "cooling off" for a profile that is really backend-exhausted.
+            boolean dCoolingOff = !dQuarantined && ctx.coolingOff().contains(d);
             boolean dWeightExcluded = weightExcluded(ctx, d);
-            if (dQuarantined && dWeightExcluded) {
-                throw new PlacementException("worker profile '" + d + "' is quarantined (backend "
-                        + "exhausted) and has weight 0 (excluded from automatic selection), and no "
-                        + "available candidate remains");
-            }
-            if (dWeightExcluded) {
-                throw new PlacementException("worker profile '" + d + "' has weight 0 (excluded "
-                        + "from automatic selection) and no available candidate remains");
-            }
-            if (dQuarantined) {
-                throw new PlacementException("worker profile '" + d + "' is quarantined (backend "
-                        + "exhausted) and no un-quarantined candidate is available");
+            if (dQuarantined || dCoolingOff || dWeightExcluded) {
+                List<String> reasons = new ArrayList<>();
+                if (dQuarantined) {
+                    reasons.add("is quarantined (backend exhausted)");
+                }
+                if (dCoolingOff) {
+                    reasons.add("is cooling off after repeated backend errors");
+                }
+                if (dWeightExcluded) {
+                    reasons.add("has weight 0 (excluded from automatic selection)");
+                }
+                throw new PlacementException("worker profile '" + d + "' "
+                        + String.join(" and ", reasons) + ", and no available candidate remains");
             }
         }
         if (!ctx.candidates().isEmpty()) {
-            throw new PlacementException(
-                    "all worker profiles are excluded from automatic selection (quarantined or weight-0)");
+            throw new PlacementException("all worker profiles are excluded from automatic "
+                    + "selection (quarantined, cooling off, or weight-0)");
         }
         throw new PlacementException("no worker profiles configured");
     }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/PlacementContext.java

@@ -14,10 +14,19 @@ import java.util.function.Function;
  * @param quarantined    profiles whose credential is currently quarantined (CB-578 stage B) — a
  *                       {@code BACKEND_EXHAUSTED} classification put it, or a profile it shares a
  *                       credential with, on cooldown. Filtered the same way as {@code unreachable}.
+ * @param coolingOff     profiles whose credential is currently cooling off after repeated backend
+ *                       errors (fleetd #201 Unit 5 — {@code BackendOutagePolicy}), a SEPARATE,
+ *                       shorter-lived source from {@code quarantined}: a credential outage cools off
+ *                       even when no member was ever exhausted. Deliberately its own set rather than
+ *                       merged into {@code quarantined} — {@link PlacementPolicyUtil} needs to tell
+ *                       the two apart so its refusal message says "cooling off", not "exhausted",
+ *                       when only this one is active. A profile can be in both sets at once; when it
+ *                       is, exhaustion quarantine is reported (it takes priority).
  */
 public record PlacementContext(String defaultProfile,
                                List<PlacementCandidate> candidates,
                                Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                Set<String> unreachable,
-                               Set<String> quarantined) {
+                               Set<String> quarantined,
+                               Set<String> coolingOff) {
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/PlacementPolicyUtil.java

@@ -14,14 +14,16 @@ final class PlacementPolicyUtil {
     /**
      * Candidates that are not weight-excluded (CB-554: explicit {@code weight <= 0}, checked
      * first because it is a static config choice rather than transient state), not
-     * known-unreachable, not quarantined (CB-578 stage B), and have not reached their maxLoad.
-     * A {@code null} maxLoad means unlimited.
+     * known-unreachable, not quarantined (CB-578 stage B), not cooling off after repeated backend
+     * errors (fleetd #201 Unit 5 — a separate, shorter-lived source from quarantine), and have not
+     * reached their maxLoad. A {@code null} maxLoad means unlimited.
      */
     static List<PlacementCandidate> available(PlacementContext ctx) {
         List<PlacementCandidate> out = new ArrayList<>();
         for (PlacementCandidate c : ctx.candidates()) {
             if (c.excluded() || ctx.unreachable().contains(c.profile())
-                    || ctx.quarantined().contains(c.profile())) {
+                    || ctx.quarantined().contains(c.profile())
+                    || ctx.coolingOff().contains(c.profile())) {
                 continue;
             }
             Integer cap = c.maxLoad();
@@ -38,21 +40,27 @@ final class PlacementPolicyUtil {
 
     /**
      * Build a clear exception describing why every candidate was dropped: all weight-0, all
-     * quarantined, all at capacity, all unreachable, or a mix. Each candidate is counted into
-     * exactly one bucket (weight-excluded takes priority) so a candidate excluded for more than
-     * one reason is never double-counted.
+     * quarantined, all cooling off, all at capacity, all unreachable, or a mix. Each candidate is
+     * counted into exactly one bucket (weight-excluded first, then quarantined, then cooling off)
+     * so a candidate excluded for more than one reason is never double-counted — a candidate that is
+     * both quarantined (CB-578 stage B, backend exhausted) and cooling off (fleetd #201 Unit 5,
+     * repeated backend errors) counts only as quarantined, matching {@code CompositePeerLauncher}'s
+     * explicit-spawn ordering: exhaustion quarantine takes priority when both are active.
      */
     static PlacementException emptyException(PlacementContext ctx) {
         int weightExcluded = 0;
         int atCap = 0;
         int unreachable = 0;
         int quarantined = 0;
+        int coolingOff = 0;
         for (PlacementCandidate c : ctx.candidates()) {
             Integer cap = c.maxLoad();
             if (c.excluded()) {
                 weightExcluded++;
             } else if (ctx.quarantined().contains(c.profile())) {
                 quarantined++;
+            } else if (ctx.coolingOff().contains(c.profile())) {
+                coolingOff++;
             } else if (ctx.unreachable().contains(c.profile())) {
                 unreachable++;
             } else if (cap != null && ctx.liveCount().apply(c.profile()) >= cap) {
@@ -71,6 +79,10 @@ final class PlacementPolicyUtil {
         if (quarantined == total) {
             return new PlacementException("all worker profiles are quarantined (backend exhausted)");
         }
+        if (coolingOff == total) {
+            return new PlacementException(
+                    "all worker profiles are cooling off after repeated backend errors");
+        }
         if (atCap == total) {
             return new PlacementException("all worker profiles are at maxLoad");
         }
@@ -79,7 +91,9 @@ final class PlacementPolicyUtil {
         }
         return new PlacementException("no worker profile available: " + atCap + " at maxLoad, "
                 + unreachable + " unreachable, " + quarantined + " quarantined, "
+                + coolingOff + " cooling off, "
                 + weightExcluded + " weight-0, "
-                + (total - atCap - unreachable - quarantined - weightExcluded) + " remaining");
+                + (total - atCap - unreachable - quarantined - coolingOff - weightExcluded)
+                + " remaining");
     }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/rest/FleetApp.java

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.Agent;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrClient;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.MemberPresence;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.MemberCredentialPolicyView;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerUnreachableException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.MessageService;
@@ -32,6 +33,7 @@ import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.function.Function;
 import java.util.function.Predicate;
+import java.util.function.Supplier;
 import java.util.stream.Collectors;
 
 /**
@@ -64,6 +66,10 @@ public final class FleetApp {
     private final HttpServlet mcpServlet; // MCP Streamable-HTTP endpoint, mounted at /mcp (nullable)
     private final CallerResolver auth;    // CB-501: null → authz not enforced (legacy behaviour)
     private final Metrics metrics;        // CB-502: null → /metrics not exposed
+    // fleetd #111: re-read per request, same hot-reload shape as every other live config read —
+    // absent() (the honest "no policy configured" view) for every constructor that does not wire
+    // a real one, so existing legacy call sites keep building without knowing this field exists.
+    private final Supplier<MemberCredentialPolicyView> memberCredentials;
     private final ObjectMapper mapper = new ObjectMapper();
 
     /**
@@ -111,6 +117,19 @@ public final class FleetApp {
                        MessageService messages, MemberPresence presence,
                        HttpServlet mcpServlet, CallerResolver auth, Metrics metrics,
                        Predicate<String> deliverable) {
+        this(herdr, memberHerdr, workers, sessions, messages, presence, mcpServlet, auth, metrics,
+                deliverable, MemberCredentialPolicyView::absent);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param memberCredentials live {@code memberCredentials:} policy view (fleetd #111), re-read
+     *                          per request for {@code GET /member-credentials}; production wiring
+     *                          passes the same hot-reload shape as every other live config read
+     */
+    public FleetApp(HerdrClient herdr, HerdrClient memberHerdr, PeerLauncher workers, SessionManager sessions,
+                       MessageService messages, MemberPresence presence,
+                       HttpServlet mcpServlet, CallerResolver auth, Metrics metrics,
+                       Predicate<String> deliverable, Supplier<MemberCredentialPolicyView> memberCredentials) {
         this.herdr = herdr;
         this.memberHerdr = memberHerdr != null ? memberHerdr : herdr;
         this.workers = workers;
@@ -120,6 +139,7 @@ public final class FleetApp {
         this.mcpServlet = mcpServlet;
         this.auth = auth;
         this.metrics = metrics;
+        this.memberCredentials = memberCredentials != null ? memberCredentials : MemberCredentialPolicyView::absent;
     }
 
     /** Wire routes onto a fresh, unstarted Javalin instance. Caller starts it. */
@@ -148,6 +168,7 @@ public final class FleetApp {
         app.get("/agents", this::agents);
         app.get("/members", this::listMembers);                  // CB-304: registry roster + live herdr status
         app.get("/profiles", this::profiles);                    // configured backend profiles
+        app.get("/member-credentials", this::memberCredentials); // fleetd #111: policy names + counts, never a value
         app.post("/members", this::spawnMember);                 // optional ?role=&profile= or {"role":…,"profile":…}
         app.delete("/members/{paneId}", this::stopMember);
         app.post("/sessions/{id}/message", this::sendMessage);   // fleet_send (primary; blocking, wait:false, or answer via turnId)
@@ -346,6 +367,29 @@ public final class FleetApp {
                 "default", workers.defaultProfile() == null ? "" : workers.defaultProfile()));
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #111 (CB-608): the live {@code memberCredentials:} policy as names and counts —
+     * NEVER a value. The daemon does not hold a credential's value in the first place (only the
+     * name it is configured under), so there is nothing to redact here beyond what {@link
+     * MemberCredentialPolicyView} already omits by construction. This is the source
+     * {@code scripts/probe-member-credentials.sh} reads instead of carrying its own hardcoded
+     * name list, which is exactly what let the list drift silently behind the real policy.
+     */
+    private void memberCredentials(Context ctx) {
+        if (!allow(ctx, Authz.Action.READ, null)) {
+            return;
+        }
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = memberCredentials.get();
+        ctx.status(200).json(Map.of(
+                "present", view.present(),
+                "policy", view.policy() == null ? "" : view.policy(),
+                "known", view.known(),
+                "allowed", view.allowed(),
+                "knownCount", view.knownCount(),
+                "allowedCount", view.allowedCount(),
+                "blockedCount", view.blockedCount()));
+    }
+
     /**
      * Spawn a guard-checked worker. An optional {@code profile} (query param or {@code {"profile":…}}
      * body) picks which configured profile; omitted → the default. 403 if the base_url would breach

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/GitWorktrees.java

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ import java.nio.charset.StandardCharsets;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.nio.file.StandardCopyOption;
+import java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFilePermissions;
 import java.security.SecureRandom;
 import java.util.ArrayList;
 import java.util.HashSet;
@@ -161,6 +162,7 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
         } catch (IOException e) {
             throw new WorktreeException("cannot create worktree root " + root + ": " + e.getMessage(), e);
         }
+        shareRootWithGroup(root);
         String wt = path.toAbsolutePath().toString();
         log.info("adding worktree branch={} path={} base={}", branch, wt, base);
         removeUserInfoFromHttpsOrigin(repoRoot);
@@ -424,19 +426,75 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
      * neutralized copy from ever showing up as a local modification the worker might commit. A config
      * the repo does not carry is skipped silently — no stub is invented for a file the repo does not
      * have, and one missing file must never fail provisioning.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #134. The neutralization above is correct and stays unconditional — the defect was
+     * that it was invisible on both sides. Neither the daemon's own log nor the worker sitting in the
+     * worktree could tell a stub from the repo's real file: a real worker read a 3-byte {@code {}}
+     * where the repo's {@code opencode.json} is 30+ lines, and reported — truthfully from what it
+     * could see, and wrongly — that a mount key did not exist. Two fixes, aimed at two different
+     * readers:
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>the daemon operator reads {@link #log}, so the summary below names the denominator, what
+     *       was neutralized, and why anything was not — the same shape {@code overlayParity} reports
+     *       its own copy in;
+     *   <li>the worker reads its own worktree, not the daemon's log, so the same fact is recorded a
+     *       second time in worktree-scoped git config ({@code fleet.neutralizedConfig} /
+     *       {@code fleet.neutralizedConfigNote}, readable with {@code git config --worktree --get-all
+     *       fleet.neutralizedConfig}) rather than as a file in the working tree. A working-tree file
+     *       would show up in {@code git status} for the worker to trip on or commit; worktree-scoped
+     *       config lives in {@code .git/worktrees/<nonce>/config.worktree} and can never appear there.
+     *       This reuses the exact mechanism {@link #configureEnvironmentCredentialHelper} and
+     *       {@link #configureHttpsUrlRewriteForSshOrigin} already use for other worktree-local state.
+     * </ul>
      */
     private void isolateToolSurface(String worktreePath) {
         Path root = Path.of(worktreePath).toAbsolutePath().normalize();
+        List<String> neutralized = new ArrayList<>();
+        List<String> skipped = new ArrayList<>();
         for (WorktreeHostileConfig cfg : WORKTREE_HOSTILE_CONFIGS) {
-            neutralize(root, worktreePath, cfg);
+            if (neutralize(root, worktreePath, cfg)) {
+                neutralized.add(cfg.file());
+            } else {
+                skipped.add(cfg.file() + " absent");
+            }
         }
+        String detail = neutralized.isEmpty() ? String.join(", ", skipped)
+                : skipped.isEmpty() ? String.join(", ", neutralized)
+                : String.join(", ", neutralized) + " (" + String.join(", ", skipped) + ")";
+        log.info("tool-surface isolation: neutralized {} of {} configs: {} — the worktree copy is a "
+                        + "stub, not the repo's file; edit the real file in the primary checkout instead",
+                neutralized.size(), WORKTREE_HOSTILE_CONFIGS.size(), detail);
+        recordNeutralizedConfigForWorker(worktreePath, neutralized);
     }
 
-    private void neutralize(Path root, String worktreePath, WorktreeHostileConfig cfg) {
+    /**
+     * The worker-readable half of fleetd #134: record which files were neutralized where the worker
+     * itself can read it, without a working-tree file that would show up in {@code git status}.
+     * Worktree-scoped git config is per-worktree, lives under {@code .git/worktrees/<nonce>/} rather
+     * than the working tree, and this repo already relies on the same mechanism (and the same
+     * {@code extensions.worktreeConfig} enablement) for the credential helper and the SSH→HTTPS
+     * rewrite — see {@link #configureEnvironmentCredentialHelper}.
+     */
+    private void recordNeutralizedConfigForWorker(String worktreePath, List<String> neutralized) {
+        if (neutralized.isEmpty()) {
+            return;
+        }
+        exec("git", "-C", worktreePath, "config", "extensions.worktreeConfig", "true");
+        for (String file : neutralized) {
+            exec("git", "-C", worktreePath, "config", "--worktree", "--add", "fleet.neutralizedConfig", file);
+        }
+        exec("git", "-C", worktreePath, "config", "--worktree", "fleet.neutralizedConfigNote",
+                "the worktree copy of each fleet.neutralizedConfig path is a stub, not the repo's "
+                        + "committed file; edit the real file from the primary checkout instead");
+    }
+
+    /** @return true if {@code cfg} was neutralized (present, or created because {@link
+     *  WorktreeHostileConfig#createIfAbsent()}); false if the repo does not carry it and it was
+     *  left alone. */
+    private boolean neutralize(Path root, String worktreePath, WorktreeHostileConfig cfg) {
         Path target = root.resolve(cfg.file());
         if (!Files.exists(target) && !cfg.createIfAbsent()) {
-            log.debug("{} absent in the worktree — skipping (repo does not carry it)", cfg.file());
-            return;
+            return false;
         }
         try {
             Files.writeString(target, cfg.stub());
@@ -447,7 +505,7 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
         if (isTracked(root, cfg.file())) {
             exec("git", "-C", worktreePath, "update-index", "--skip-worktree", cfg.file());
         }
-        log.debug("neutralized {} — worker tool surface is launcher-mounted only", cfg.file());
+        return true;
     }
 
     @Override
@@ -484,25 +542,46 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
         }
         Path srcRoot = Path.of(repoRoot).toAbsolutePath().normalize();
         Path dstRoot = Path.of(worktreePath).toAbsolutePath().normalize();
+        List<String> copied = new ArrayList<>();
+        List<String> skipped = new ArrayList<>();
+        List<String> neutralized = new ArrayList<>();
         for (String rel : overlay) {
             Path src = srcRoot.resolve(rel).normalize();
             if (!Files.exists(src)) {
-                log.debug("parity overlay source missing — skipping {}", rel);
+                skipped.add(rel + " absent");
                 continue;
             }
             Path dst = dstRoot.resolve(rel).normalize();
             try {
                 Files.createDirectories(dst.getParent());
                 Files.copy(src, dst, StandardCopyOption.REPLACE_EXISTING, StandardCopyOption.COPY_ATTRIBUTES);
-                log.debug("copied parity overlay {}", rel);
+                copied.add(rel);
             } catch (IOException e) {
                 throw new WorktreeException("cannot copy overlay " + rel + ": " + e.getMessage(), e);
             }
             if (isTracked(dstRoot, rel)) {
                 exec("git", "-C", worktreePath, "update-index", "--skip-worktree", rel);
-                log.debug("marked overlay --skip-worktree {}", rel);
+                neutralized.add(rel);
             }
         }
+        // CB-148 point 3: a bare count ("copied 1") hides which candidates were even considered — the
+        // same shape of under-reporting this repo has been bitten by before. Name the denominator
+        // (every configured candidate), what was actually copied, and — for anything not copied —
+        // why, so a spawn's overlay outcome is legible from the log alone, no filesystem dig required.
+        String detail = copied.isEmpty() ? String.join(", ", skipped)
+                : skipped.isEmpty() ? String.join(", ", copied)
+                : String.join(", ", copied) + " (" + String.join(", ", skipped) + ")";
+        log.info("parity overlay: copied {} of {} candidates: {}", copied.size(), overlay.size(), detail);
+        // CB-134: a neutralized tracked file is otherwise a silent trap — a worker edits it, git
+        // ignores the change with no error, and nothing anywhere said the file could not be
+        // committed from this worktree. Name every file marked --skip-worktree here, with the
+        // consequence stated in the message itself, rather than adding a worktree-local marker
+        // file: acceptance criterion 1 requires the worktree hold exactly the configured overlay
+        // set and nothing else, so an extra marker would itself violate the fix.
+        if (!neutralized.isEmpty()) {
+            log.info("parity overlay marked --skip-worktree (cannot be committed from this worktree): {}",
+                    String.join(", ", neutralized));
+        }
     }
 
     @Override
@@ -712,6 +791,54 @@ public final class GitWorktrees implements Worktrees {
                 group, repoRoot, worktreePath, touched);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #224: make {@code worktreeRoot} ITSELF group-traversable — established once, here,
+     * where the root is created, never at a use site. {@link #shareWithGroup} shares each worktree
+     * (and the repo's common git dir) with {@link #group}, but never the PARENT directory that
+     * contains every worktree — and under {@code memberHerdrSocket:} the member pane runs as a
+     * different OS user, which needs the execute bit on every ancestor directory to reach anything
+     * underneath, no matter how carefully each child is shared. Without this, a member cannot read
+     * the ephemeral {@code opencode.json} #219 places under this root, cannot reach its own
+     * worktree, and cannot read #213's ZDOTDIR scrub when placed here either.
+     *
+     * <p>No-op — no process spawned — when {@link #group} is null/blank, so behaviour with
+     * {@code worktreeGroup:} unset (today's only live mode) is unchanged. Only {@code root} itself
+     * is touched (non-recursive): each child underneath is shared individually, either by
+     * {@link #shareWithGroup} for a worktree or by the launcher that generates it (fleetd #213/#219)
+     * for a scrub/config directory — sharing this level again would just duplicate that policy in
+     * the wrong layer.
+     *
+     * <p>Fails loudly, naming {@code root}, its mode at the time of the attempt, and {@link #group}:
+     * a member that starts and then cannot see its own checkout is worse than a refused spawn, since
+     * nothing about that failure mode points at a directory's permission bits.
+     */
+    private void shareRootWithGroup(Path root) {
+        if (group == null) {
+            return;
+        }
+        String mode = currentPosixMode(root);
+        try {
+            shareGroupRunner.apply(new String[]{"chgrp", group, root.toString()});
+            shareGroupRunner.apply(new String[]{"chmod", "g+x", root.toString()});
+        } catch (WorktreeException e) {
+            throw new WorktreeException("cannot make worktree root " + root + " (mode " + mode
+                    + ") group-traversable for group '" + group + "': " + e.getMessage()
+                    + " — the group must exist, and the fleetd operator (" + System.getProperty("user.name")
+                    + ") must be a member of it", e);
+        }
+        log.info("worktreeGroup={} made worktree root {} group-traversable (was mode {})", group, root, mode);
+    }
+
+    /** {@code root}'s current POSIX permission string, or {@code "unknown"} on a filesystem that does
+     *  not support POSIX permissions — used only to name the mode in a refusal message. */
+    private static String currentPosixMode(Path root) {
+        try {
+            return PosixFilePermissions.toString(Files.getPosixFilePermissions(root));
+        } catch (IOException | UnsupportedOperationException e) {
+            return "unknown";
+        }
+    }
+
     /**
      * The repo's <em>common</em> git directory as an absolute path — where {@code objects},
      * {@code refs} and {@code worktrees} actually live. {@code git rev-parse --git-common-dir}

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/MemberSession.java

@@ -46,7 +46,8 @@ public record MemberSession(
         String worktree,
         String branch,
         CharterReceipt charterReceipt,
-        String agentSessionId) {
+        String agentSessionId,
+        String failureReason) {
 
     /** One-shot worker lifecycle states. */
     public enum State {
@@ -54,6 +55,7 @@ public record MemberSession(
         READY,
         BUSY,
         DONE,
+        BACKEND_ERROR,
         FAILED,
         RELEASED
     }
@@ -69,25 +71,35 @@ public record MemberSession(
                          long lastActivityAtNanos, int turnCount, State state,
                          String worktree, String branch) {
         this(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
-                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, null, null);
+                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, null, null, null);
+    }
+
+    /** Backward-compatible shape without a backend failure reason. */
+    public MemberSession(String paneId, String terminalId, String profile, MemberRole role,
+                         String cwd, String ownerTerminal, long spawnedAtNanos,
+                         long lastActivityAtNanos, int turnCount, State state,
+                         String worktree, String branch, CharterReceipt charterReceipt,
+                         String agentSessionId) {
+        this(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
+                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId, null);
     }
 
     /** Return a copy of this session in {@code state}. */
     public MemberSession withState(State state) {
         return new MemberSession(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
-                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId);
+                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId, failureReason);
     }
 
     /** Return a copy with {@code lastActivityAtNanos} updated to {@code nowNanos}. */
     public MemberSession withActivity(long nowNanos) {
         return new MemberSession(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
-                nowNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId);
+                nowNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId, failureReason);
     }
 
     /** Return a copy with the turn count incremented and activity timestamped at {@code nowNanos}. */
     public MemberSession bumpTurn(long nowNanos) {
         return new MemberSession(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
-                nowNanos, turnCount + 1, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId);
+                nowNanos, turnCount + 1, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId, failureReason);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -98,6 +110,12 @@ public record MemberSession(
      */
     public MemberSession withAgentSessionId(String agentSessionId) {
         return new MemberSession(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
-                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId);
+                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId, failureReason);
+    }
+
+    /** Return a copy with the durable backend failure detail. */
+    public MemberSession withFailureReason(String failureReason) {
+        return new MemberSession(paneId, terminalId, profile, role, cwd, ownerTerminal, spawnedAtNanos,
+                lastActivityAtNanos, turnCount, state, worktree, branch, charterReceipt, agentSessionId, failureReason);
     }
 }

fleetd/src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/SessionManager.java

@@ -183,46 +183,51 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
                                  String sessionName, String resumeSessionId) {
         MemberRole memberRole = (role == null) ? MemberRole.DEV : role;
         requireResumeCapability(profile, resumeSessionId);
+        // CB-619 / fleetd #123: an explicit profile bypasses placement (CompositePeerLauncher only
+        // constrains an UNQUALIFIED spawn to the role's pool), so it is the one path that can ask
+        // for a role with no slot to bind it to. Refuse before anything spawns. A blank profile is
+        // left to placement, which already restricts an unqualified spawn to the role's pool.
+        if (profile != null && !profile.isBlank()) {
+            memberLifecycle.requireSlotFor(memberRole, profile);
+        }
+        MemberLifecycle.SlotReservation reservation = memberLifecycle.reserve(memberRole, profile);
+        String launchProfile = reservation == null ? profile : reservation.profile();
         if (wt == null) {
             // CB-557: the role must ride on the SpawnRequest, not stay a local. The launcher needs it
             // to pick the profile out of that role's pool and to label the tab; a role kept only on
             // the MemberSession is recorded after the spawn it was supposed to steer.
-            SpawnRequest req = new SpawnRequest(profile, requestedCwd, callerCwd, sessionName, resumeSessionId, memberRole);
+            SpawnRequest req = new SpawnRequest(launchProfile, requestedCwd, callerCwd, sessionName, resumeSessionId, memberRole);
             PeerHandle handle;
+            boolean bound = false;
             try {
                 handle = launcher.spawn(req);
+                String resolvedProfile = resolveProfile(handle, launchProfile);
+                String cwd = launcher.effectiveCwd(new SpawnRequest(resolvedProfile, requestedCwd, callerCwd));
+                long now = nowNanos.getAsLong();
+                MemberRole actualRole = acquired(memberRole, resolvedProfile, handle.terminalId(), reservation);
+                bound = reservation == null || actualRole == MemberRole.ARCHITECT;
+                MemberSession session = new MemberSession(
+                        handle.id(), handle.terminalId(), resolvedProfile, actualRole, cwd, ownerTerminal, now, now, 0,
+                        MemberSession.State.SPAWNING, null, null, handle.charterReceipt(), handle.agentSessionId());
+                registry.put(handle.id(), session);
+                handles.put(handle.id(), handle);
+                log.debug("acquired session id={} terminal={} profile={} owner={}",
+                        handle.id(), handle.terminalId(), session.profile(), session.ownerTerminal());
+                notifyAcquired(session.terminalId());
+                return session;
             } catch (RuntimeException e) {
-                log.warn("spawn failed for profile={} role={}: {}", profile, memberRole, e.getMessage());
+                if (!bound) memberLifecycle.release(reservation);
+                log.warn("spawn failed for profile={} role={}: {}", launchProfile, memberRole, e.getMessage());
                 throw e;
             }
-            String resolvedProfile = resolveProfile(handle, profile);
-            String cwd = launcher.effectiveCwd(new SpawnRequest(resolvedProfile, requestedCwd, callerCwd));
-            long now = nowNanos.getAsLong();
-            MemberSession session = new MemberSession(
-                    handle.id(),
-                    handle.terminalId(),
-                    resolvedProfile,
-                    memberRole,
-                    cwd,
-                    ownerTerminal,
-                    now,
-                    now,
-                    0,
-                    MemberSession.State.SPAWNING,
-                    null,
-                    null,
-                    handle.charterReceipt(),
-                    handle.agentSessionId());
-            registry.put(handle.id(), session);
-            handles.put(handle.id(), handle);
-            memberLifecycle.acquired(session.role(), session.profile(), session.terminalId());
-            log.debug("acquired session id={} terminal={} profile={} owner={}",
-                    handle.id(), handle.terminalId(), session.profile(), session.ownerTerminal());
-            notifyAcquired(session.terminalId());
-            return session;
         }
-        return acquireWithWorktree(profile, memberRole, requestedCwd, callerCwd, ownerTerminal, wt,
-                sessionName, resumeSessionId);
+        try {
+            return acquireWithWorktree(launchProfile, memberRole, requestedCwd, callerCwd, ownerTerminal, wt,
+                    sessionName, resumeSessionId, reservation);
+        } catch (RuntimeException e) {
+            memberLifecycle.release(reservation);
+            throw e;
+        }
     }
 
     /**
@@ -468,7 +473,8 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
 
     private MemberSession acquireWithWorktree(String profile, MemberRole memberRole, String requestedCwd, String callerCwd,
                                               String ownerTerminal, WorktreeRequest wt,
-                                              String sessionName, String resumeSessionId) {
+                                               String sessionName, String resumeSessionId,
+                                               MemberLifecycle.SlotReservation reservation) {
         String preResolvedProfile = (profile == null || profile.isBlank())
                 ? launcher.defaultProfile() : profile;
         // CB-507: resolve through the launcher's CB-112 chain (requested → profile cwd → caller →
@@ -509,11 +515,14 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
         String resolvedProfile = resolveProfile(handle, profile);
         String cwd = launcher.effectiveCwd(new SpawnRequest(resolvedProfile, path, callerCwd));
         long now = nowNanos.getAsLong();
+        // CB-619: see the no-worktree path above — bind before recording, and store the returned
+        // actual role, so this session's role is never a lie about what it actually holds.
+        MemberRole actualRole = acquired(memberRole, resolvedProfile, handle.terminalId(), reservation);
         MemberSession session = new MemberSession(
                 handle.id(),
                 handle.terminalId(),
                 resolvedProfile,
-                memberRole,
+                actualRole,
                 cwd,
                 ownerTerminal,
                 now,
@@ -526,13 +535,24 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
                 handle.agentSessionId());
         registry.put(handle.id(), session);
         handles.put(handle.id(), handle);
-        memberLifecycle.acquired(session.role(), session.profile(), session.terminalId());
         log.debug("acquired worktree session id={} terminal={} profile={} branch={} path={}",
                 handle.id(), handle.terminalId(), session.profile(), session.branch(), session.worktree());
         notifyAcquired(session.terminalId());
         return session;
     }
 
+    private MemberRole acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal,
+                                MemberLifecycle.SlotReservation reservation) {
+        if (reservation == null) {
+            return memberLifecycle.acquired(role, profile, terminal);
+        }
+        if (memberLifecycle.bind(reservation, terminal)) {
+            return role;
+        }
+        memberLifecycle.release(reservation);
+        return memberLifecycle.acquired(role, profile, terminal);
+    }
+
     private String slug(String raw) {
         return raw == null ? "ticket" : raw.toLowerCase().replaceAll("[^a-z0-9]+", "-").replaceAll("^-+|-+$", "");
     }
@@ -638,6 +658,9 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
         m.put("profile", session.profile());
         m.put("role", session.role() == null ? "dev" : session.role().wireName());
         m.put("state", session.state().name().toLowerCase());
+        if (session.failureReason() != null) {
+            m.put("failureReason", session.failureReason());
+        }
         if (session.worktree() != null) {
             m.put("worktree", session.worktree());
         }
@@ -698,6 +721,36 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
         completeTurn(target, false);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Record that a member backend failed after a delegated ticket expired. This CAS loop accepts
+     * either side of the completion race: {@code BUSY -> BACKEND_ERROR} or
+     * {@code DONE -> BACKEND_ERROR}. A released or unknown session is never recreated.
+     *
+     * @return {@code true} when the error is recorded on a live session
+     */
+    public boolean onBackendError(String target, String reason) {
+        while (true) {
+            MemberSession current = findByTerminal(target);
+            if (current == null) {
+                log.warn("backend error for unknown member terminal={}", target);
+                return false;
+            }
+            if (current.state() == MemberSession.State.RELEASED) {
+                return false;
+            }
+            if (current.state() == MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR) {
+                return true;
+            }
+            MemberSession updated = current.withState(MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR)
+                    .withFailureReason(reason).withActivity(nowNanos.getAsLong());
+            if (replace(current, updated)) {
+                log.warn("member terminal={} pane={} transitioned {} -> BACKEND_ERROR: {}",
+                        target, current.paneId(), current.state(), reason);
+                return true;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
     @Override
     public boolean hasPostTurnAction(String target) {
         if (!clearAfterTurn) return false;
@@ -716,10 +769,9 @@ public final class SessionManager implements TurnListener {
         if (current == null || current.state() != MemberSession.State.BUSY) return false;
         long now = nowNanos.getAsLong();
         MemberSession updated = current.withState(MemberSession.State.DONE).withActivity(now);
-        if (replace(current, updated)) {
-            log.debug("session transitioned terminal={} pane={} BUSY -> DONE turn={}",
-                    target, current.paneId(), updated.turnCount());
-        }
+        if (!replace(current, updated)) return false;
+        log.debug("session transitioned terminal={} pane={} BUSY -> DONE turn={}",
+                target, current.paneId(), updated.turnCount());
         if (contextCap > 0 && updated.turnCount() >= contextCap) {
             release(current.paneId());
             return false;

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdBackendErrorPatternLookupTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorPatternLookup;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.MemberSession;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNull;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #248 / fleetd#201 Unit 5: {@link Fleetd#backendErrorPatternLookup} is the factory that
+ * replaced the local lambda {@code Fleetd.main} used to build {@code backendErrorPatterns} — one
+ * of the two arguments {@code CompletionResolver} lost cleanly (0 compile errors, every test still
+ * green) when this ticket's measurement dropped it alongside {@code backendErrorSink}. This class
+ * proves the factory's own behaviour; {@code FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest} proves {@code
+ * main} still passes its result into {@code CompletionResolver}.
+ */
+class FleetdBackendErrorPatternLookupTest {
+
+    private static MemberSession session(String terminal, String profile) {
+        return new MemberSession("pane-" + terminal, terminal, profile, MemberRole.DEV,
+                "/cwd", null, 0L, 0L, 0, MemberSession.State.READY, null, null);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a target on a profile with a configured pattern resolves to that pattern")
+    void configuredProfileResolves() {
+        Map<String, Pattern> byProfile = Map.of("terra", Pattern.compile("(?i)503"));
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup lookup =
+                Fleetd.backendErrorPatternLookup(() -> List.of(session("term1", "terra")), byProfile);
+
+        assertEquals("(?i)503", lookup.patternFor("term1").pattern());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a target on a profile with no configured pattern resolves to null")
+    void unconfiguredProfileResolvesToNull() {
+        Map<String, Pattern> byProfile = Map.of("terra", Pattern.compile("x"));
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup lookup =
+                Fleetd.backendErrorPatternLookup(() -> List.of(session("term1", "sol")), byProfile);
+
+        assertNull(lookup.patternFor("term1"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("an unknown target resolves to null")
+    void unknownTargetResolvesToNull() {
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup lookup =
+                Fleetd.backendErrorPatternLookup(List::of, Map.of("terra", Pattern.compile("x")));
+
+        assertNull(lookup.patternFor("term_stranger"));
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdBackendErrorSinkTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,229 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrClient;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorSink;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.CompositePeerLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.PrimaryRegistry;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.InMemoryReplyInbox;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.ReplyPushLoop;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.Capability;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerHandle;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.SpawnRequest;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementPolicies;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.MemberSession;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionManager;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.AfterEach;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.CopyOnWriteArrayList;
+import java.util.concurrent.CountDownLatch;
+import java.util.concurrent.Executors;
+import java.util.concurrent.ScheduledExecutorService;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #248 / fleetd#201 Unit 5: {@link Fleetd#backendErrorSink} is the factory that replaced
+ * the local lambda {@code Fleetd.main} used to build {@code backendErrorSink} — the other half of
+ * the pair this ticket's measurement dropped cleanly (0 compile errors, every test still green).
+ *
+ * <p>Before this ticket, the closest thing to coverage was {@code
+ * dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendOutageFlowTest}, whose own class doc said it "mirrors {@code
+ * Fleetd.main}'s {@code backendErrorSink} lambda line-for-line" — a hand-copy that proves itself,
+ * never that {@code main} still wires the real thing. This class exercises the actual production
+ * factory instead. {@code FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest} proves {@code main} still passes its
+ * result into {@code CompletionResolver}.
+ */
+class FleetdBackendErrorSinkTest {
+
+    private final List<ScheduledExecutorService> schedulers = new ArrayList<>();
+
+    @AfterEach
+    void tearDown() {
+        schedulers.forEach(ScheduledExecutorService::shutdownNow);
+    }
+
+    private static FleetConfig.Profile stubWorker(String profile, String credentialId) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Profile(profile, "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder",
+                null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", List.of("claude"), "tab", "fleetd-workers",
+                "w #{n}", null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null,
+                null, null, credentialId, null);
+    }
+
+    private static Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> orderedProfiles() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> m = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        m.put("terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        m.put("sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"));
+        return m;
+    }
+
+    /** Minimal recording {@code HerdrClient} for the LEAD pane — mirrors ReplyPushLoopTest's own. */
+    private static final class RecordingLeadClient implements HerdrClient {
+        private static final ObjectMapper MAPPER = new ObjectMapper();
+        private final List<Object> prompts = new CopyOnWriteArrayList<>();
+        volatile CountDownLatch sendLatch = new CountDownLatch(1);
+
+        @Override
+        public JsonNode call(String method, Object params) {
+            if ("agent.get".equals(method)) {
+                return MAPPER.createObjectNode().set("agent", MAPPER.createObjectNode()
+                        .put("terminal_id", "term_primary").put("agent_status", "idle"));
+            }
+            if ("agent.prompt".equals(method)) {
+                prompts.add(params);
+                sendLatch.countDown();
+            }
+            return MAPPER.createObjectNode();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public void close() {
+        }
+
+        int sendCount() {
+            return prompts.size();
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** A {@link PeerLauncher} that never actually spawns — enough to construct a bare {@link SessionManager}. */
+    private static final class NeverSpawnsLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
+        @Override
+        public Set<Capability> capabilities() {
+            return Set.of();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public Set<Capability> capabilitiesFor(String profileName) {
+            return Set.of();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public PeerHandle spawn(SpawnRequest req) {
+            throw new UnsupportedOperationException("not reachable — this test never acquires a session");
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public Set<String> profiles() {
+            return Set.of();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public String defaultProfile() {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public String effectiveCwd(SpawnRequest req) {
+            throw new UnsupportedOperationException("not reachable — this test never acquires a session");
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public List<String> parityOverlay(String profileName) {
+            return List.of();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public List<?> list() {
+            return List.of();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public int reapOrphanWorkers() {
+            return 0;
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public void stop(String id) {
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public boolean clearContext(String id) {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a target with no resolvable profile logs and returns without recording an incident (never throws)")
+    void unresolvableProfileDoesNotRecordOrThrow() {
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(new NeverSpawnsLauncher());
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        RecordingLeadClient leadClient = new RecordingLeadClient();
+        InMemoryReplyInbox inbox = new InMemoryReplyInbox();
+        PrimaryRegistry registry = new PrimaryRegistry(null);
+        ScheduledExecutorService scheduler = Executors.newSingleThreadScheduledExecutor();
+        schedulers.add(scheduler);
+        ReplyPushLoop pushLoop = new ReplyPushLoop(registry, new AgentControl(leadClient), inbox, scheduler, 3, 50);
+
+        BackendErrorSink sink = Fleetd.backendErrorSink(sessions, Map::of, outagePolicy, () -> pushLoop);
+        sink.onBackendError("term_unmapped", "matched line", "503 Service Unavailable");
+
+        assertTrue(outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty(),
+                "no credential is ever resolvable here, so nothing must be recorded");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("two distinct targets classified through the real factory start an incident and cool the credential")
+    void twoDistinctTargetsStartAnIncident() throws Exception {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr()
+                .readText("⏺ 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected\n❯ ");
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = orderedProfiles();
+        AtomicLong clockNanos = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(clockNanos::get);
+        ClaudeCodeLauncher adapter = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr),
+                new WorkspaceControl(herdr), new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                profiles, "terra", _ -> "tok");
+        CompositePeerLauncher workers = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "terra", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.weighted(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workers);
+        MemberSession s1 = sessions.acquire("terra", null, null, null);
+        MemberSession s2 = sessions.acquire("terra", null, null, null);
+
+        PrimaryRegistry registry = new PrimaryRegistry(null);
+        registry.recordDelegation(s1.terminalId(), "term_primary");
+        registry.recordDelegation(s2.terminalId(), "term_primary");
+        InMemoryReplyInbox inbox = new InMemoryReplyInbox();
+        inbox.own(s1.terminalId());
+        inbox.own(s2.terminalId());
+        RecordingLeadClient leadClient = new RecordingLeadClient();
+        ScheduledExecutorService scheduler = Executors.newSingleThreadScheduledExecutor();
+        schedulers.add(scheduler);
+        ReplyPushLoop pushLoop = new ReplyPushLoop(registry, new AgentControl(leadClient), inbox, scheduler, 3, 50);
+        AtomicReference<ReplyPushLoop> pushLoopRef = new AtomicReference<>(pushLoop);
+
+        // The exact object under test: Fleetd's real production factory, not a hand copy.
+        BackendErrorSink sink = Fleetd.backendErrorSink(sessions, () -> profiles, outagePolicy, pushLoopRef::get);
+
+        sink.onBackendError(s1.terminalId(), "matched line", "503 Service Unavailable");
+        assertTrue(outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty(),
+                "one distinct target must not start a cool-off");
+
+        sink.onBackendError(s2.terminalId(), "matched line", "503 Service Unavailable");
+
+        assertTrue(leadClient.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS),
+                "the second distinct target must cross the threshold and nudge the lead");
+        var remaining = outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai");
+        assertTrue(remaining.isPresent(), "two distinct targets must start a cool-off");
+        assertEquals(1, leadClient.sendCount());
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #248: this is the test that was actually missing. {@code Fleetd.main} builds its {@code
+ * CompletionResolver} from an 8-argument constructor, and the ticket's own measurement proved two
+ * ways to silently unwire it — both compiled with 0 errors and left every existing test green:
+ *
+ * <ul>
+ *   <li>replacing the worktree/branch argument (the 8th) with {@code _ -> null} — drops
+ *       fleetd#241's fallback-report location entirely;</li>
+ *   <li>replacing {@code backendErrorPatterns, backendErrorSink} (5th/6th) with {@code
+ *       BackendErrorPatternLookup.legacy(), BackendErrorSink.none()} — drops fleetd#201 Unit 5's
+ *       backend-error classification and cool-off entirely.</li>
+ * </ul>
+ *
+ * <p>Neither mutation could be caught by any test that constructs its own {@code
+ * CompletionResolver} (every test before this one did exactly that) or by a test of {@link
+ * Fleetd#worktreeBranchLookup}, {@link Fleetd#backendErrorPatternLookup}, or {@link
+ * Fleetd#backendErrorSink} in isolation (see {@code FleetdWorktreeBranchLookupTest}, {@code
+ * FleetdBackendErrorPatternLookupTest}, {@code FleetdBackendErrorSinkTest}) — those prove the
+ * factories work, never that {@code main} still calls them. This class is a plain source-text
+ * assertion on {@code Fleetd.java} — crude, but honest about what it checks, and it turns red the
+ * instant the wiring is dropped, mirroring the same fallback shape {@link
+ * FleetdFleetAppConstructionTest} already uses for a different constructor argument.
+ *
+ * <p><b>This test checks source text, not runtime behaviour.</b> It never constructs a {@code
+ * CompletionResolver} and never runs {@code main}.
+ */
+class FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest {
+
+    private static String fleetdSource() throws Exception {
+        return Files.readString(Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] CompletionResolver's construction call still names backendErrorPatterns and backendErrorSink")
+    void backendErrorArgumentsAreStillNamedAtTheCallSite() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains(
+                        "exhaustionSink, backendErrorPatterns, backendErrorSink, System::nanoTime,"),
+                "CompletionResolver's construction call must still pass backendErrorPatterns and "
+                        + "backendErrorSink as its 5th/6th arguments. Replacing them with "
+                        + "BackendErrorPatternLookup.legacy()/BackendErrorSink.none() (fleetd #248's measured "
+                        + "mutation) compiles with 0 errors and leaves every behavioural test green — this "
+                        + "source check is what must go red instead.");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] CompletionResolver's construction call still passes worktreeBranchLookup(sessions::roster)")
+    void worktreeBranchLookupIsStillPassedAtTheCallSite() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains("worktreeBranchLookup(sessions::roster)"),
+                "CompletionResolver's construction call must still pass worktreeBranchLookup(sessions::roster) "
+                        + "as its 8th (last) argument. Replacing it with the inert `_ -> null` (fleetd #248's "
+                        + "other measured mutation) compiles with 0 errors and leaves every behavioural test "
+                        + "green — this source check is what must go red instead.");
+        assertFalse(source.contains("System::nanoTime,\n                _ -> null"),
+                "the worktree/branch argument must never regress to the inert `_ -> null` literal");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] backendErrorPatterns is assigned from the extracted backendErrorPatternLookup(...) factory")
+    void backendErrorPatternsComesFromTheFactory() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains(
+                        "BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrorPatterns = backendErrorPatternLookup(sessions::roster,"),
+                "backendErrorPatterns must be assigned from Fleetd.backendErrorPatternLookup(...), not an "
+                        + "inline lambda that a source check on the CompletionResolver call alone cannot see "
+                        + "through");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] backendErrorSink is assigned from the extracted backendErrorSink(...) factory")
+    void backendErrorSinkComesFromTheFactory() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains(
+                        "BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink = backendErrorSink(sessions, () -> config.get().profiles(),"),
+                "backendErrorSink must be assigned from Fleetd.backendErrorSink(...), not an inline lambda "
+                        + "that a source check on the CompletionResolver call alone cannot see through");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdLeadSeatLookupTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,156 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.function.Function;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #176: {@link Fleetd#leadSeatLookup} is the factory {@code Fleetd.main} wires into {@code
+ * FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource} so {@code fleet_list}'s {@code free} can subtract the seat(s) a
+ * {@code subscription: true} profile's own live LEAD session holds on that same account —
+ * {@code maxLoad} never counted the lead, only members. {@code FleetdLeadSeatWiringTest} proves
+ * {@code main} still passes this factory's result in; this class proves the factory's own matching
+ * logic: subscription-only, credential-matched, and counting only CURRENTLY LIVE leads.
+ */
+class FleetdLeadSeatLookupTest {
+
+    private static FleetConfig.Profile subscriptionProfile(String name, String credentialId) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Profile(name, null, "claude-sonnet-5", null, null, null,
+                "tab", "fleet", "w #{n}", null, null, null, null, null, null, null,
+                null, 3, true, null, credentialId, null);
+    }
+
+    private static FleetConfig.Profile offSubscriptionProfile(String name, String credentialId) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Profile(name, "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN",
+                null, "tab", "fleet", "w #{n}", null, null, null, null, null, null, null,
+                null, 2, false, null, credentialId, null);
+    }
+
+    private static FleetConfig.Leader leadOnProfile(String profile) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Leader(profile, "lead: primary", 1, "lead:", 10, "claude", "claude-sonnet-5");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a live lead sharing the target profile's credential counts as one seat")
+    void liveLeadSharingCredentialCountsAsOneSeat() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of("sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", null));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("sonnet"));
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders,
+                () -> Map.of("term_primary", "primary"));
+
+        assertEquals(1, lookup.apply("sonnet"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("no live lead names this profile ⇒ zero seats, exactly as before this ticket")
+    void noLiveLeadOnTheProfileCountsAsZero() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of("sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", null));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("sonnet"));
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders, Map::of);
+
+        assertEquals(0, lookup.apply("sonnet"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a lead entry with no `profile:` (recognise-only) contributes no seats — cannot be derived")
+    void recogniseOnlyLeadWithNoProfileContributesNothing() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of("sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", null));
+        FleetConfig.Leader recogniseOnly = new FleetConfig.Leader(null, "lead: primary", 1, "lead:", 10,
+                "claude", "claude-sonnet-5");
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", recogniseOnly);
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders,
+                () -> Map.of("term_primary", "primary"));
+
+        assertEquals(0, lookup.apply("sonnet"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a non-subscription profile never has a lead seat subtracted, whatever the credential match")
+    void nonSubscriptionProfileIsNeverAdjusted() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(
+                "terra", offSubscriptionProfile("terra", "shared-openai"),
+                "sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", "shared-openai"));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("sonnet"));
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders,
+                () -> Map.of("term_primary", "primary"));
+
+        assertEquals(0, lookup.apply("terra"), "terra is not subscription:true, so it must never be adjusted");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("explicit, different credentialIds still separate two subscription profiles (post fleetd #176 "
+            + "stage 2 sentinel)")
+    void differentCredentialIsNotCounted() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(
+                "sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", "claude-account-a"),
+                "opus", subscriptionProfile("opus", "claude-account-b"));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("opus"));
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders,
+                () -> Map.of("term_primary", "primary"));
+
+        assertEquals(0, lookup.apply("sonnet"), "different accounts must never be conflated into one seat count "
+                + "— an explicit credentialId on both sides must still win over the subscription sentinel, so an "
+                + "operator with two separate Claude logins on one host can keep them apart");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176 stage 2 — the exact live shape that shipped inert: a lead on subscription profile
+     * {@code opus}, members on a DIFFERENTLY NAMED subscription profile {@code sonnet}, same Claude
+     * login, and NEITHER profile sets {@code credentialId}. Every other test in this class puts the
+     * lead on the SAME profile name as the target, which happened to keep working even with the old
+     * fall-back-to-profile-name {@code effectiveCredentialId()} — this is the one that did not, and
+     * its absence is what let the stage-1 fix ship without ever catching the bug it was filed for.
+     */
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[LIVE SHAPE] lead on a DIFFERENT subscription profile, same account, neither sets "
+            + "credentialId ⇒ still counts as a seat")
+    void leadOnADifferentSubscriptionProfileSameAccountStillCountsAsASeat() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(
+                "opus", subscriptionProfile("opus", null),
+                "sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", null));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("opus"));
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders,
+                () -> Map.of("term_primary", "primary"));
+
+        assertEquals(1, lookup.apply("sonnet"), "opus and sonnet are both subscription:true with no explicit "
+                + "credentialId, so they share one Claude login and the lead's live seat on opus must be charged "
+                + "against sonnet too — this is the live host's actual shape (fleetd #176 stage 2)");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("two live instances of the same lead count as two seats")
+    void twoLiveInstancesOfTheSameLeadCountAsTwoSeats() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of("sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", null));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("sonnet"));
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders,
+                () -> Map.of("term_a", "primary", "term_b", "primary"));
+
+        assertEquals(2, lookup.apply("sonnet"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("an unconfigured target profile resolves to zero, not a thrown exception")
+    void unconfiguredTargetProfileIsZero() {
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(Map::of, Map.of(), Map::of);
+
+        assertEquals(0, lookup.apply("ghost"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("live leads are read through the supplier on every call, not snapshotted")
+    void liveLeadsAreReadThroughOnEveryCall() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of("sonnet", subscriptionProfile("sonnet", null));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Leader> leaders = Map.of("primary", leadOnProfile("sonnet"));
+        java.util.Map<String, String> live = new java.util.HashMap<>();
+        Function<String, Integer> lookup = Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(() -> profiles, leaders, () -> live);
+
+        assertEquals(0, lookup.apply("sonnet"));
+        live.put("term_primary", "primary");
+        assertEquals(1, lookup.apply("sonnet"));
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdLeadSeatWiringTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #176: {@code Fleetd.main} builds its {@code FleetMcp} from a 14-argument constructor whose
+ * last argument is a {@code FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource} wrapping {@link Fleetd#leadSeatLookup}. That
+ * argument is exactly the kind of wiring fleetd #248 warned about: dropping it (or swapping it for
+ * the inert {@code FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none()}) compiles with 0 errors and leaves every test
+ * that builds its own {@code FleetMcp}/{@code CapacitySource} directly — every test that predates
+ * this ticket — green, because none of them go through {@code main} at all.
+ *
+ * <p>{@link FleetdLeadSeatLookupTest} proves the factory's own matching logic; this class is the
+ * plain source-text assertion that proves {@code main} still passes its result in, mirroring
+ * {@code FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest}'s approach for the same class of gap.
+ *
+ * <p><b>This test checks source text, not runtime behaviour.</b> It never constructs a
+ * {@code FleetMcp} and never runs {@code main}.
+ */
+class FleetdLeadSeatWiringTest {
+
+    private static String fleetdSource() throws Exception {
+        return Files.readString(Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/Fleetd.java"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] FleetMcp's construction call still passes a LeadSeatSource built from leadSeatLookup(...)")
+    void fleetMcpConstructionStillWiresLeadSeatLookup() throws Exception {
+        String source = fleetdSource();
+        assertTrue(source.contains("new FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource(leadSeatLookup(() -> config.get().profiles(), "
+                        + "leaders, leads))"),
+                "FleetMcp's construction call must still pass a LeadSeatSource built from "
+                        + "Fleetd.leadSeatLookup(...). Dropping it or swapping in "
+                        + "FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none() (fleetd #176's would-be silent regression, the same "
+                        + "shape as fleetd #248's measured mutations) compiles with 0 errors and leaves every "
+                        + "existing behavioural test green — this source check is what must go red instead.");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/FleetdWorktreeBranchLookupTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.CompletionResolver;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.MemberSession;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.function.Function;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNull;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #248: {@link Fleetd#worktreeBranchLookup} is the factory that replaced the anonymous
+ * lambda {@code Fleetd.main} used to build inline, as the 8th (last) argument to {@code
+ * CompletionResolver}'s constructor. Before this ticket that argument was untestable wiring:
+ * replacing it with {@code _ -> null} compiled clean and every existing test stayed green, because
+ * every existing test builds its own {@code CompletionResolver} directly rather than going through
+ * {@code main}. This class proves the factory's own behaviour; {@code
+ * FleetdCompletionResolverWiringTest} proves {@code main} still passes it in.
+ */
+class FleetdWorktreeBranchLookupTest {
+
+    private static MemberSession session(String terminal, String worktree, String branch) {
+        return new MemberSession("pane-" + terminal, terminal, "terra", MemberRole.DEV,
+                "/cwd", null, 0L, 0L, 0, MemberSession.State.READY, worktree, branch);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("a known target resolves to its session's worktree and branch")
+    void knownTargetResolves() {
+        Function<String, CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch> lookup =
+                Fleetd.worktreeBranchLookup(() -> List.of(session("term1", "/wt/worker_x", "worker/x")));
+
+        CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch resolved = lookup.apply("term1");
+
+        assertEquals("/wt/worker_x", resolved.worktree());
+        assertEquals("worker/x", resolved.branch());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("an unknown target resolves to null, not a thrown exception")
+    void unknownTargetResolvesToNull() {
+        Function<String, CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch> lookup =
+                Fleetd.worktreeBranchLookup(() -> List.of(session("term1", "/wt/worker_x", "worker/x")));
+
+        assertNull(lookup.apply("term_stranger"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("the roster is read through the supplier on every call, not snapshotted")
+    void rosterIsReadThroughOnEveryCall() {
+        List<MemberSession> roster = new ArrayList<>();
+        Function<String, CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch> lookup = Fleetd.worktreeBranchLookup(() -> roster);
+
+        assertNull(lookup.apply("term_late"));
+        roster.add(session("term_late", "/wt/late", "worker/late"));
+
+        assertEquals("/wt/late", lookup.apply("term_late").worktree());
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/RequiredSecretEnvVarsTest.java

@@ -1,8 +1,12 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet;
 
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger;
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.spi.ILoggingEvent;
+import ch.qos.logback.core.read.ListAppender;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
@@ -26,19 +30,66 @@ class RequiredSecretEnvVarsTest {
         return FleetConfig.load(f);
     }
 
+    private static ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> attach() {
+        Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(Fleetd.class);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.start();
+        logger.addAppender(appender);
+        return appender;
+    }
+
+    private static void detach(ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender) {
+        ((Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(Fleetd.class)).detachAppender(appender);
+    }
+
     @Test
-    void collectsATokenEnvPerNonSubscriptionProfile(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+    void explicitlyConfiguredUnsetTokenEnvWarnsWithCurrentWording(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         FleetConfig cfg = load(dir, """
                 profiles:
                   local:
                     baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
-                    tokenEnv: AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN
+                    tokenEnv: CB115_MISSING_TOKEN_ENV_819367
                 """);
 
         Map<String, List<String>> required = Fleetd.requiredSecretEnvVars(cfg);
 
-        assertTrue(required.containsKey("AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN"));
-        assertEquals(List.of("profile 'local' tokenEnv"), required.get("AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN"));
+        assertTrue(required.containsKey("CB115_MISSING_TOKEN_ENV_819367"));
+        assertEquals(List.of("profile 'local' tokenEnv"), required.get("CB115_MISSING_TOKEN_ENV_819367"));
+
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = attach();
+        try {
+            Fleetd.reportRequiredSecrets(cfg);
+        } finally {
+            detach(appender);
+        }
+
+        assertTrue(appender.list.stream().anyMatch(e ->
+                        e.getLevel() == ch.qos.logback.classic.Level.WARN
+                                && e.getFormattedMessage().contains("startup secret CB115_MISSING_TOKEN_ENV_819367: MISSING")
+                                && e.getFormattedMessage().contains("profile 'local' tokenEnv")),
+                "an explicitly configured but unset tokenEnv must retain the startup warning");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void profileWithoutTokenEnvDoesNotRequireTheOldDefault(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        FleetConfig cfg = load(dir, """
+                profiles:
+                  local:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                """);
+
+        assertTrue(Fleetd.requiredSecretEnvVars(cfg).isEmpty(),
+                "an absent tokenEnv means this profile needs no token, not FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN");
+
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = attach();
+        try {
+            Fleetd.reportRequiredSecrets(cfg);
+        } finally {
+            detach(appender);
+        }
+
+        assertFalse(appender.list.stream().anyMatch(e -> e.getLevel() == ch.qos.logback.classic.Level.WARN),
+                "a profile without tokenEnv must not produce a startup secret warning");
     }
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/ConfigRefTest.java

@@ -386,6 +386,54 @@ class ConfigRefTest {
         assertEquals("rate limit exceeded", ref.get().profiles().get("sonnet").exhaustedPattern());
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #201 Unit 5: errorPattern is compiled once into Fleetd.main's backend-error pattern
+     * map at startup (see BackendErrorPatternLookup), the same way exhaustedPattern is above — a
+     * reload never re-reads it either, so a changed value must be reported deferred.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void changingAProfilesErrorPatternIsReportedAsDeferred(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("fleetd.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                bind:
+                  host: 127.0.0.1
+                  port: 8765
+                herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
+                profiles:
+                  sonnet:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                    model: sonnet
+                    errorPattern: "credential outage"
+                guard:
+                  offSubscriptionHosts:
+                    - gx00.gw
+                """);
+        ConfigRef ref = refFor(f);
+
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                bind:
+                  host: 127.0.0.1
+                  port: 8765
+                herdrSocket: ~/.config/herdr/herdr.sock
+                profiles:
+                  sonnet:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                    model: sonnet
+                    errorPattern: "provider 5xx"
+                guard:
+                  offSubscriptionHosts:
+                    - gx00.gw
+                """);
+        ConfigRef.Outcome out = ref.reload();
+
+        assertTrue(out.applied());
+        assertEquals(1, out.deferred().size(), out.deferred().toString());
+        assertTrue(out.deferred().getFirst().contains("sonnet"), out.deferred().toString());
+        assertTrue(out.deferred().getFirst().contains("launch settings"), out.deferred().toString());
+        // The snapshot still carries the new value — a restart is what makes it take effect.
+        assertEquals("provider 5xx", ref.get().profiles().get("sonnet").errorPattern());
+    }
+
     @Test
     void aFixedRefHasNoFileAndRefusesToReload() {
         FleetConfig cfg = new FleetConfig(null, null, null, null, null, null,

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/config/FleetConfigTest.java

@@ -6,11 +6,18 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
 
+import java.lang.reflect.ParameterizedType;
+import java.lang.reflect.RecordComponent;
+import java.lang.reflect.Type;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.HashSet;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.TreeMap;
+import java.util.regex.Matcher;
 import java.util.regex.Pattern;
 
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
@@ -86,6 +93,85 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
                 "unset means off — today's behaviour, unchanged");
     }
 
+    // ── fleetd #201 Unit 5: errorPattern ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    @Test
+    void aProfileWithAnErrorPatternBindsAndHasErrorPatternIsTrue(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("error-pattern.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                profiles:
+                  ltms-local:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                    errorPattern: "(?i)\\\\bcredential outage\\\\b"
+                """);
+
+        FleetConfig.Profile w = FleetConfig.load(f).profiles().get("ltms-local");
+        assertTrue(w.hasErrorPattern(), "errorPattern binds and enables fleetd #201 Unit 5 classification");
+        assertEquals("(?i)\\bcredential outage\\b", w.errorPattern());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aProfileWithNoErrorPatternLeavesItNullAndHasErrorPatternIsFalse(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("no-error-pattern.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                profiles:
+                  ltms-local:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                """);
+
+        FleetConfig.Profile w = FleetConfig.load(f).profiles().get("ltms-local");
+        assertNull(w.errorPattern(), "unset means 'use the built-in fallback' — never off");
+        assertFalse(w.hasErrorPattern());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aBlankErrorPatternNormalizesToNullJustLikeUnset(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("blank-error-pattern.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                profiles:
+                  ltms-local:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                    errorPattern: "   "
+                """);
+
+        FleetConfig.Profile w = FleetConfig.load(f).profiles().get("ltms-local");
+        assertNull(w.errorPattern());
+        assertFalse(w.hasErrorPattern());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aProfileWithAMalformedErrorPatternIsRejectedAtLoadNamingTheProfileAndKey(@TempDir Path dir)
+            throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("malformed-error-pattern.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                profiles:
+                  ltms-local:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                    errorPattern: "(unterminated["
+                """);
+
+        IllegalStateException e = assertThrows(IllegalStateException.class, () -> FleetConfig.load(f));
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("ltms-local"), "the offending profile is named: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("errorPattern"), "the offending key is named: " + e.getMessage());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void withProfileCarriesErrorPatternThrough(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("with-profile-error-pattern.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                profiles:
+                  ltms-local:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx00.gw:8000
+                    errorPattern: "credential outage"
+                """);
+
+        // The compact constructor defaults `profile` to the map key via withProfile(name) — see
+        // loadsFullConfig above. errorPattern must survive that same rebuild.
+        FleetConfig.Profile w = FleetConfig.load(f).profiles().get("ltms-local");
+        assertEquals("ltms-local", w.profile());
+        assertEquals("credential outage", w.errorPattern());
+    }
+
     @Test
     void appliesDefaultsForMissingSections(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path f = dir.resolve("minimal.yaml");
@@ -1287,9 +1373,18 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
     }
 
     /**
-     * Every optional knob the example documents must bind under the exact spelling used there.
-     * Keep this list in step with {@code fleetd.example.yaml}: a rename that updates the record
-     * but not the example (or vice versa) fails here instead of silently no-op'ing in production.
+     * A spot check that the knobs listed below bind under the exact spelling the example uses —
+     * it asserts real VALUES arrive in the record, which no name-matching guard can do.
+     *
+     * <p><b>This is NOT a coverage guard, and must not be read as one</b> (fleetd #113). The list
+     * inside it is hand-written, so it only ever covers what someone remembered to add. Coverage
+     * — "is every key the code reads documented, and does every documented key bind?" — comes
+     * from {@link #everyNestedConfigKeyIsDocumentedInTheExample} and
+     * {@link #everyLiveKeyInTheExampleBindsToARecordComponent}, both of which derive their key
+     * set from the record tree and therefore cannot drift.
+     *
+     * <p>Adding a knob here is optional. Leaving one out is not a coverage gap, because the two
+     * derived guards above already fail on an undocumented or unbindable key.
      */
     @Test
     void everyOptionalKnobDocumentedInTheExampleBinds(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
@@ -1313,6 +1408,7 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
                     weight: 0.5
                     maxLoad: 2
                     exhaustedPattern: "usage limit has been reached"
+                    errorPattern: "credential outage"
                 placement: weighted
                 lifecycle:
                   idleTtlSeconds: 300
@@ -1350,6 +1446,8 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
         assertEquals(2, w.maxLoad(), "maxLoad binds as an integer");
         assertTrue(w.hasExhaustedPattern(), "exhaustedPattern binds and enables the CB-578 stage A classification");
         assertEquals("usage limit has been reached", w.exhaustedPattern());
+        assertTrue(w.hasErrorPattern(), "errorPattern binds and enables fleetd #201 Unit 5 classification");
+        assertEquals("credential outage", w.errorPattern());
 
         assertEquals("weighted", cfg.placement(), "placement binds at the top level");
         assertEquals(300, cfg.lifecycle().idleTtlSeconds());
@@ -1443,6 +1541,230 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
         return p.matcher(yaml).find();
     }
 
+    /**
+     * The nested half of {@link #everyKnownTopLevelKeyIsDocumentedInTheExample} (fleetd #113).
+     *
+     * <p>That guard walks {@link FleetConfig#KNOWN_TOP_LEVEL_KEYS} and anchors its regex at
+     * column 0, so it sees ONLY top-level keys. Every nested key — {@code profiles.<name>.model},
+     * {@code health.paneProbeIntervalSeconds} and a hundred others — is outside its scope, and
+     * neither its name nor its output says so. A green run then reads as "the example documents
+     * the schema" when most of the schema was never looked at.
+     *
+     * <p>This walks the record tree rather than a name list, so a key added to any nested record
+     * is covered the moment it compiles, with no edit here. That is the point: a hand-maintained
+     * second copy of a list always drifts from the thing it mirrors.
+     *
+     * <p><b>Scope, stated on purpose</b> (fleetd #113 criterion 3 — every check reports what it
+     * did and did not look at):
+     * <ul>
+     *   <li>It checks each key NAME appears somewhere in the example as a YAML key, live or
+     *       commented out. It does NOT check the key sits at the right path.</li>
+     *   <li>It does NOT check a documented key is read by anything. {@code paneProbeIntervalSeconds}
+     *       is parsed into {@link FleetConfig.Health} and used nowhere, and this guard passes it.
+     *       Proving a key is live code needs a call graph, which this is not.</li>
+     * </ul>
+     */
+    @Test
+    void everyNestedConfigKeyIsDocumentedInTheExample() throws Exception {
+        Path example = Path.of("fleetd.example.yaml");
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(example), "fleetd.example.yaml must ship next to the pom");
+        String text = Files.readString(example);
+
+        Map<String, String> pathByName = configKeyPaths();
+
+        // The denominator. An under-counting walk passes every subset check vacuously, which is
+        // the exact shape fleetd #113 collects — so the walk has to prove it descended at all.
+        // The floor is DERIVED, not a literal: the nested walk must find substantially more keys
+        // than the top-level set the old guard used, or it has not gone below the first level.
+        int topLevel = FleetConfig.KNOWN_TOP_LEVEL_KEYS.size();
+        assertTrue(pathByName.size() > topLevel * 2,
+                "the record walk found " + pathByName.size() + " config key(s) against "
+                        + topLevel + " top-level key(s) — it has stopped descending into the "
+                        + "nested records, so this guard would pass vacuously. Fix the walk "
+                        + "before trusting a green run.");
+
+        List<String> undocumented = pathByName.entrySet().stream()
+                .filter(e -> !keyDocumentedAnywhere(text, e.getKey()))
+                .map(Map.Entry::getValue)
+                .sorted()
+                .toList();
+
+        assertTrue(undocumented.isEmpty(), () -> "checked " + pathByName.size()
+                + " config key(s) that FleetConfig can bind; " + undocumented.size()
+                + " appear nowhere in fleetd.example.yaml: " + undocumented
+                + " — document each one there, commented out if optional. fleetd.yaml is "
+                + "gitignored, so the example is the only committed description of the schema.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The other direction: a LIVE key in the example that {@link FleetConfig} cannot bind. That is
+     * a key an operator would copy into {@code fleetd.yaml} expecting it to do something, where it
+     * would be silently ignored.
+     *
+     * <p><b>Scope, stated on purpose:</b> only live (uncommented) keys are checked. Most of the
+     * example is commented-out prose, and that prose contains lines like {@code #   mode: token}
+     * that are indistinguishable from keys by text alone. Parsing them would produce false
+     * failures, so they are deliberately out of scope — and saying so here is the point, rather
+     * than letting a reader assume the whole file was validated.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void everyLiveKeyInTheExampleBindsToARecordComponent() throws Exception {
+        Path example = Path.of("fleetd.example.yaml");
+        String text = Files.readString(example);
+
+        List<List<String>> paths = liveKeyPaths(text);
+        assertTrue(paths.size() >= 20,
+                "only " + paths.size() + " live key path(s) were parsed out of the example — the "
+                        + "parser is not seeing the file, so this guard would pass vacuously.");
+
+        List<String> unbindable = paths.stream()
+                .filter(path -> !pathBinds(path))
+                .map(path -> String.join(".", path))
+                .distinct()
+                .sorted()
+                .toList();
+
+        assertTrue(unbindable.isEmpty(), () -> "checked " + paths.size()
+                + " live key path(s) in fleetd.example.yaml; " + unbindable.size()
+                + " bind to nothing in FleetConfig: " + unbindable
+                + " — an operator copying one of these into fleetd.yaml gets silence, not an error.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Every configuration key {@link FleetConfig} can bind, at every depth, as
+     * {@code name -> a dotted path to one place it appears}. Derived from the record components,
+     * so it cannot drift from the code.
+     */
+    private static Map<String, String> configKeyPaths() {
+        Map<String, String> out = new TreeMap<>();
+        collectConfigKeys(FleetConfig.class, "", new HashSet<>(), out);
+        return out;
+    }
+
+    private static void collectConfigKeys(Class<?> type, String prefix, Set<String> seen,
+                                          Map<String, String> out) {
+        if (!type.isRecord() || !seen.add(type.getName())) {
+            return;
+        }
+        for (RecordComponent rc : type.getRecordComponents()) {
+            String path = prefix.isEmpty() ? rc.getName() : prefix + "." + rc.getName();
+            out.putIfAbsent(rc.getName(), path);
+            Class<?> nested = rc.getType();
+            if (nested.isRecord()) {
+                collectConfigKeys(nested, path, seen, out);
+            } else if (Map.class.isAssignableFrom(nested) || List.class.isAssignableFrom(nested)) {
+                Class<?> element = elementRecord(rc);
+                if (element != null) {
+                    String childPrefix = Map.class.isAssignableFrom(nested)
+                            ? path + ".<name>" : path + "[]";
+                    collectConfigKeys(element, childPrefix, seen, out);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** The record type inside a {@code Map<String, X>} or {@code List<X>} component, else null. */
+    private static Class<?> elementRecord(RecordComponent rc) {
+        if (rc.getGenericType() instanceof ParameterizedType pt) {
+            Type[] args = pt.getActualTypeArguments();
+            if (args.length > 0 && args[args.length - 1] instanceof Class<?> c && c.isRecord()) {
+                return c;
+            }
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * True when {@code key} is documented in the example, in either of the two conventions that
+     * file actually uses:
+     * <ol>
+     *   <li>as a YAML key at any indentation, live or commented out ({@code key:}); or</li>
+     *   <li>in a prose block that describes a section's sub-keys, one per line, as
+     *       {@code #   key   → what it does}.</li>
+     * </ol>
+     *
+     * <p>The second form is not decoration. {@code broker.uri} is documented ONLY that way, on
+     * purpose: writing it out as a copy-pasteable {@code uri: amqp://user:pass@host} invites an
+     * operator to paste a password into a file, which is the very thing {@code uriEnv} exists to
+     * avoid. A guard that demanded the key form would push the file toward doing that. So this
+     * encodes the convention the example really uses rather than imposing a new one.
+     */
+    private static boolean keyDocumentedAnywhere(String yaml, String key) {
+        String quoted = Pattern.quote(key);
+        Pattern asYamlKey = Pattern.compile("(?m)^\\s*(?:#\\s*)?" + quoted + ":");
+        Pattern asProseEntry = Pattern.compile("(?m)^\\s*#\\s*" + quoted + "\\s+\u2192");
+        return asYamlKey.matcher(yaml).find() || asProseEntry.matcher(yaml).find();
+    }
+
+    /** Every live (uncommented) key in {@code yaml}, as a path from the document root. */
+    private static List<List<String>> liveKeyPaths(String yaml) {
+        Pattern keyLine = Pattern.compile("^(\\s*)([A-Za-z][A-Za-z0-9_]*):(\\s.*)?$");
+        List<String> stack = new ArrayList<>();
+        List<Integer> indents = new ArrayList<>();
+        List<List<String>> paths = new ArrayList<>();
+        for (String line : yaml.split("\n", -1)) {
+            if (line.isBlank() || line.stripLeading().startsWith("#")) {
+                continue;
+            }
+            Matcher m = keyLine.matcher(line);
+            if (!m.matches()) {
+                continue;
+            }
+            int indent = m.group(1).length();
+            while (!indents.isEmpty() && indents.get(indents.size() - 1) >= indent) {
+                indents.remove(indents.size() - 1);
+                stack.remove(stack.size() - 1);
+            }
+            indents.add(indent);
+            stack.add(m.group(2));
+            paths.add(List.copyOf(stack));
+        }
+        return paths;
+    }
+
+    /** True when a dotted YAML path resolves to something {@link FleetConfig} can bind. */
+    private static boolean pathBinds(List<String> path) {
+        Class<?> type = FleetConfig.class;
+        boolean nextSegmentIsAFreeFormName = false;
+        for (int i = 0; i < path.size(); i++) {
+            if (nextSegmentIsAFreeFormName) {
+                nextSegmentIsAFreeFormName = false;
+                continue;
+            }
+            RecordComponent rc = componentNamed(type, path.get(i));
+            if (rc == null) {
+                return false;
+            }
+            Class<?> t = rc.getType();
+            if (t.isRecord()) {
+                type = t;
+            } else if (Map.class.isAssignableFrom(t)) {
+                Class<?> element = elementRecord(rc);
+                if (element == null) {
+                    return true; // Map<String,String>: its entries are data, not schema
+                }
+                type = element;
+                nextSegmentIsAFreeFormName = true;
+            } else {
+                // A scalar or a list of scalars: nothing may legitimately nest under it.
+                return i == path.size() - 1;
+            }
+        }
+        return true;
+    }
+
+    private static RecordComponent componentNamed(Class<?> type, String name) {
+        if (type == null || !type.isRecord()) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        for (RecordComponent rc : type.getRecordComponents()) {
+            if (rc.getName().equals(name)) {
+                return rc;
+            }
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+
     @Test
     void placementDefaultsToFixedForExistingConfigs(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path f = dir.resolve("no-placement.yaml");
@@ -1781,7 +2103,7 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
     }
 
     @Test
-    void parityOverlayDefaultsToEnvFilesOnly(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+    void parityOverlayDefaultsToDotEnvOnly(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
         Path f = dir.resolve("no-overlay.yaml");
         Files.writeString(f, """
                 bind:
@@ -1792,9 +2114,11 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
                 """);
 
         FleetConfig cfg = FleetConfig.load(f);
-        assertEquals(List.of(".env", ".envrc"),
+        assertEquals(List.of(".env"),
                 cfg.profiles().get("gx10").parityOverlay(),
-                "the default parity overlay is the env files; settings.local.json is no longer copied by default");
+                "the default parity overlay is .env only (CB-148): .envrc is executable shell that "
+                        + "direnv runs on every cd, so it is no longer copied by default; settings.local.json "
+                        + "is also not copied by default");
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -1815,6 +2139,25 @@ class FleetConfigTest {
                 "an operator's explicit list survives verbatim — the default only changes when unset");
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void parityOverlayExplicitEnvrcOptInStillWorks(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Path f = dir.resolve("explicit-envrc-overlay.yaml");
+        Files.writeString(f, """
+                bind:
+                  port: 8080
+                profiles:
+                  gx10:
+                    baseUrl: http://gx10.gw:8000
+                    parityOverlay: [".env", ".envrc"]
+                """);
+
+        FleetConfig cfg = FleetConfig.load(f);
+        assertEquals(List.of(".env", ".envrc"),
+                cfg.profiles().get("gx10").parityOverlay(),
+                "an operator can still opt into copying .envrc explicitly (CB-148); it is only "
+                        + "dropped from the unset default, not removed as a capability");
+    }
+
     // ── CB-542: subscription:true must not smuggle an unguarded endpoint via env: ───────────────
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/herdr/FakeHerdr.java

@@ -44,10 +44,14 @@ public final class FakeHerdr implements HerdrClient {
     private String agentSendErrorCode = null;
     private boolean noPanes = false;
     private volatile String agentStatus = "idle"; // steady-state agent.get status
+    private volatile String agentType = "claude"; // detected agent kind on agent.get; null = undetected
     private volatile String readText = "worker transcript tail"; // canned agent.read output
     private int pinnedStarts = 0;   // how many upcoming agent.start calls report a fixed pane
     private String pinnedStartTerminal;
     private String pinnedStartPane;
+    private Runnable onAgentStart; // fires the instant agent.start is called — see onAgentStart(Runnable)
+    private volatile int agentGetOkCalls = Integer.MAX_VALUE; // how many agent.get calls succeed first
+    private volatile String agentGetFailCode = null; // error code every agent.get call after that reports
 
     public FakeHerdr healthy(boolean h) {
         this.healthy = h;
@@ -103,6 +107,27 @@ public final class FakeHerdr implements HerdrClient {
         return this;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Set the detected agent kind ({@code "agent"} field) that {@code agent.get} reports —
+     * {@code null} models herdr not (or no longer) detecting a supported backend in the pane, e.g.
+     * a bare shell prompt (fleetd #176 fix 2 corroboration test).
+     */
+    public FakeHerdr agentType(String type) {
+        this.agentType = type;
+        return this;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Make {@code agent.get} succeed normally for its first {@code okCalls} invocations, then fail
+     * every call after that with {@code code} — fleetd #176 fix 1's "backend exited mid-wait"
+     * fixture. {@code okCalls == 0} fails from the very first call.
+     */
+    public FakeHerdr agentGetFailsWithAfter(int okCalls, String code) {
+        this.agentGetOkCalls = okCalls;
+        this.agentGetFailCode = code;
+        return this;
+    }
+
     /** The text {@code agent.read} returns (the CB-106 completion scrape). */
     public FakeHerdr readText(String text) {
         this.readText = text;
@@ -128,6 +153,18 @@ public final class FakeHerdr implements HerdrClient {
         return this;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Run {@code hook} synchronously the instant an {@code agent.start} call reaches this fake —
+     * i.e. the instant the peer PROCESS would start against a real herdr daemon. A test uses this
+     * to assert something is already true at that exact point (rather than merely true once
+     * {@code spawn()} returns), e.g. fleetd #149's trust-dialog seed having already been written to
+     * disk before the process herdr would launch ever starts.
+     */
+    public FakeHerdr onAgentStart(Runnable hook) {
+        this.onAgentStart = hook;
+        return this;
+    }
+
 
     /**
      * Seed a named agent into {@code agent.list} (e.g. an orphaned worker for CB-117 reaper tests).
@@ -208,13 +245,27 @@ public final class FakeHerdr implements HerdrClient {
                     }
                     yield mapper.readTree("{\"type\":\"ok\"}");
                 }
-                case "agent.get" -> mapper.readTree(("""
-                        {"type":"agent_info","agent":{"terminal_id":"term_a","agent":"claude",
+                case "agent.get" -> {
+                    if (agentGetFailCode != null) {
+                        long getCalls = calls.stream().filter(c -> c.method().equals("agent.get")).count();
+                        if (getCalls > agentGetOkCalls) {
+                            throw new HerdrException(
+                                    "herdr error [" + agentGetFailCode + "]: agent target not found",
+                                    agentGetFailCode, null);
+                        }
+                    }
+                    String agentField = agentType == null ? "null" : "\"" + agentType + "\"";
+                    yield mapper.readTree(("""
+                        {"type":"agent_info","agent":{"terminal_id":"term_a","agent":%s,
                           "agent_status":"%s","workspace_id":"w2","tab_id":"w2:t7","pane_id":"w2:p7"}}""")
-                        .formatted(agentStatus));
+                            .formatted(agentField, agentStatus));
+                }
                 case "agent.read" -> mapper.readTree(mapper.writeValueAsString(
                         java.util.Map.of("type", "agent_read", "read", java.util.Map.of("text", readText))));
                 case "agent.start" -> {
+                    if (onAgentStart != null) {
+                        onAgentStart.run();
+                    }
                     // Protocol 19: kind and pane_id are required — reject like the real daemon.
                     java.util.Map<?, ?> p = params instanceof java.util.Map<?, ?> m ? m : java.util.Map.of();
                     for (String required : new String[]{"kind", "pane_id"}) {

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/BackendOutageFlowTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,272 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
+
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.Fleetd;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrClient;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.PrimaryRegistry;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.member.CompositePeerLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.InMemoryReplyInbox;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.Rendezvous;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.ReplyPushLoop;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.SpawnRequest;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementException;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementPolicies;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.MemberSession;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionManager;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.AfterEach;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.ArrayList;
+import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Optional;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.CopyOnWriteArrayList;
+import java.util.concurrent.CountDownLatch;
+import java.util.concurrent.Executors;
+import java.util.concurrent.ScheduledExecutorService;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #201 / #227 Unit 5: proves the WIRED production path — a real {@link CompletionResolver}
+ * pane-scrape classification, through the exact {@code BackendErrorSink} ordering {@code Fleetd.main}
+ * builds (mirrored here line for line since the lambda itself lives inline in {@code Fleetd.main}),
+ * into a real {@link BackendOutagePolicy}, a real {@link CompositePeerLauncher} spawn gate, and a
+ * real {@link ReplyPushLoop} lead nudge — never by calling {@link BackendOutagePolicy#record} or the
+ * sink directly, which is what the finer-grained unit tests in
+ * {@code dev.ltms.fleet.member.CompositePeerLauncherTest} and {@code ReplyPushLoopTest} do for their
+ * own concerns. This class exists to catch a wiring mistake those unit tests cannot see: each of them
+ * hands the collaborator a value it assumes was computed correctly one layer up.
+ *
+ * <p>{@code fleet_list}/{@code fleet_profiles} rendering of the resulting cool-off (criteria 11/12)
+ * is proven separately in {@code dev.ltms.fleet.mcp.FleetMcpTest} — {@code FleetMcp}'s view methods
+ * are package-private to {@code dev.ltms.fleet.mcp} and this class needs {@code CompletionResolver}'s
+ * package-private {@code InFlight}, so the two cannot share one test class. What matters for THIS
+ * test is only that the same {@link BackendOutagePolicy} object the real scrape path populates is the
+ * one {@code FleetMcp} reads from — proven by asserting directly against
+ * {@link BackendOutagePolicy#remainingCoolOffSeconds} after the real classification below.
+ */
+class BackendOutageFlowTest {
+
+    private final List<ScheduledExecutorService> schedulers = new ArrayList<>();
+
+    @AfterEach
+    void tearDown() {
+        schedulers.forEach(ScheduledExecutorService::shutdownNow);
+    }
+
+    private static FleetConfig.Profile stubWorker(String profile, String credentialId) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Profile(profile, "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder",
+                null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", List.of("claude"), "tab", "fleetd-workers",
+                "w #{n}", null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null,
+                null, null, credentialId, null);
+    }
+
+    /** Minimal recording {@code HerdrClient} for the LEAD pane — mirrors ReplyPushLoopTest's own. */
+    private static final class RecordingLeadClient implements HerdrClient {
+        private static final ObjectMapper MAPPER = new ObjectMapper();
+        private final List<Object> prompts = new CopyOnWriteArrayList<>();
+        volatile CountDownLatch sendLatch = new CountDownLatch(1);
+
+        @Override
+        public JsonNode call(String method, Object params) {
+            if ("agent.get".equals(method)) {
+                return MAPPER.createObjectNode().set("agent", MAPPER.createObjectNode()
+                        .put("terminal_id", "term_primary").put("agent_status", "idle"));
+            }
+            if ("agent.prompt".equals(method)) {
+                prompts.add(params);
+                sendLatch.countDown();
+            }
+            return MAPPER.createObjectNode();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public void close() {
+        }
+
+        int sendCount() {
+            return prompts.size();
+        }
+
+        String lastText() {
+            return ((Map<?, ?>) prompts.get(prompts.size() - 1)).get("text").toString();
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** Every collaborator the flow wires together, built exactly once per test. */
+    private final class Flow {
+        final FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr()
+                .readText("⏺ 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected\n❯ ");
+        final Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = orderedProfiles();
+        final AtomicLong clockNanos = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        final BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(clockNanos::get);
+        final CompositePeerLauncher workers;
+        final SessionManager sessions;
+        final MemberSession s1;
+        final MemberSession s2;
+        final PrimaryRegistry registry = new PrimaryRegistry(null);
+        final InMemoryReplyInbox inbox = new InMemoryReplyInbox();
+        final RecordingLeadClient leadClient = new RecordingLeadClient();
+        final ReplyPushLoop pushLoop;
+        final CompletionResolver resolver;
+        final Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+
+        Flow() {
+            ClaudeCodeLauncher adapter = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr),
+                    new WorkspaceControl(herdr), new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                    profiles, "terra", _ -> "tok");
+            workers = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "terra", profiles,
+                    PlacementPolicies.weighted(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+            sessions = new SessionManager(workers);
+            // Two REAL member sessions on "terra" — the roster lookup the production sink does.
+            s1 = sessions.acquire("terra", null, null, null);
+            s2 = sessions.acquire("terra", null, null, null);
+            registry.recordDelegation(s1.terminalId(), "term_primary");
+            registry.recordDelegation(s2.terminalId(), "term_primary");
+            inbox.own(s1.terminalId());
+            inbox.own(s2.terminalId());
+
+            ScheduledExecutorService scheduler = Executors.newSingleThreadScheduledExecutor();
+            schedulers.add(scheduler);
+            pushLoop = new ReplyPushLoop(registry, new AgentControl(leadClient), inbox, scheduler, 3, 50);
+            AtomicReference<ReplyPushLoop> pushLoopRef = new AtomicReference<>(pushLoop);
+
+            // fleetd #248 follow-up: this used to be a 30-line hand-copy of Fleetd.main's
+            // backendErrorSink lambda, with a comment promising it mirrored production "EXACTLY".
+            // That promise is exactly the problem: a copy proves the copy. Editing or deleting the
+            // real sink left this whole flow test green, because it never touched the real sink.
+            // #248 made Fleetd.backendErrorSink public precisely so a cross-package test could
+            // drive the real object, so this now calls it. Every assertion below is about
+            // production code again.
+            BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink =
+                    Fleetd.backendErrorSink(sessions, () -> profiles, outagePolicy, pushLoopRef::get);
+
+            BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+            resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(),
+                    ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, backendErrorSink);
+        }
+
+        /** Drives one real pane-scrape classification for {@code target} through {@code resolver}. */
+        void classifyBackendErrorOn(String target) {
+            var waiter = rendezvous.open(target);
+            resolver.resolve(target, new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+            assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                    "a classified backend error still resolves the blocked send as a failure");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> orderedProfiles() {
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> m = new LinkedHashMap<>();
+        m.put("terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        m.put("sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"));
+        return m;
+    }
+
+    private long agentStartCalls(FakeHerdr herdr) {
+        return herdr.calls.stream().filter(c -> c.method().equals("agent.start")).count();
+    }
+
+    // --- criteria 4/5: two DISTINCT targets start an incident; one target never does ------------
+
+    @Test
+    void aSingleClassifiedBackendErrorOnOneTargetNeverCoolsTheCredential() {
+        Flow flow = new Flow();
+
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s1.terminalId());
+
+        assertTrue(flow.outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty(),
+                "one distinct target's classified error must not start a cool-off");
+        assertEquals(0, flow.leadClient.sendCount(), "no incident yet, so no lead nudge");
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> flow.workers.spawn(new SpawnRequest("terra", null, null)),
+                "terra must still be spawnable after only one target's error");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void twoDistinctTargetsClassifiedThroughTheRealScrapeStartAnIncidentAndCoolTheCredential() throws Exception {
+        Flow flow = new Flow();
+
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s1.terminalId());
+        assertTrue(flow.outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty());
+
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s2.terminalId());
+
+        assertTrue(flow.leadClient.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS),
+                "the second distinct target must cross the threshold and nudge the lead");
+        Thread.sleep(150);
+        var remaining = flow.outagePolicy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai");
+        assertTrue(remaining.isPresent(), "two distinct targets must start a cool-off");
+        assertEquals(60L, remaining.getAsLong(),
+                "this is the exact fact FleetMcp.capacityView/profiles reads as coolingOffForSeconds "
+                        + "(see FleetMcpTest for the rendering side)");
+    }
+
+    // --- criterion 13: the incident reaches the lead through ReplyPushLoop exactly once ----------
+
+    @Test
+    void theIncidentSendsExactlyOneNudgeToTheLeadNamingBothCredentialAndTargets() throws Exception {
+        Flow flow = new Flow();
+
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s1.terminalId());
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s2.terminalId());
+
+        assertTrue(flow.leadClient.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS));
+        Thread.sleep(200);
+        assertEquals(1, flow.leadClient.sendCount(), "one incident must send exactly one nudge");
+        String nudge = flow.leadClient.lastText();
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("shared-openai"), nudge);
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains(flow.s1.terminalId()) && nudge.contains(flow.s2.terminalId()), nudge);
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("60"), nudge);
+    }
+
+    // --- criterion 6: explicit spawn is refused BEFORE the adapter is ever called -----------------
+
+    @Test
+    void explicitSpawnOnACooledCredentialIsRefusedBeforeReachingTheAdapter() throws Exception {
+        Flow flow = new Flow();
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s1.terminalId());
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s2.terminalId());
+        assertTrue(flow.leadClient.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS));
+
+        long startsBefore = agentStartCalls(flow.herdr);
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class,
+                () -> flow.workers.spawn(new SpawnRequest("terra", null, null)));
+
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cooling off"), e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("shared-openai"), e.getMessage());
+        assertEquals(startsBefore, agentStartCalls(flow.herdr),
+                "the refusal must happen before the adapter is ever called — no new agent.start");
+    }
+
+    // --- criteria 7/9: automatic placement skips every profile sharing the cooled credential -----
+
+    @Test
+    void automaticPlacementRefusesAndNamesCoolingOffWhenEveryCandidateSharesTheCredential() throws Exception {
+        Flow flow = new Flow();
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s1.terminalId());
+        flow.classifyBackendErrorOn(flow.s2.terminalId());
+        assertTrue(flow.leadClient.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS));
+
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class,
+                () -> flow.workers.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null)),
+                "terra and sol both share the cooled-off credential — nothing is available");
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cooling off"), e.getMessage());
+        assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> flow.workers.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null)),
+                "sol shares terra's credential, so it must be locked out too");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/CompletionResolverTest.java

@@ -4,8 +4,11 @@ import ch.qos.logback.classic.Level;
 import ch.qos.logback.classic.LoggerContext;
 import ch.qos.logback.classic.spi.ILoggingEvent;
 import ch.qos.logback.core.read.ListAppender;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.HerdrClient;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.Rendezvous;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.TestTurnTokens;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.TurnToken;
@@ -193,6 +196,26 @@ class CompletionResolverTest {
         assertEquals("complete report", waiter.getNow(null).text());
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void suppressesABareEchoWithOnlyTuiChrome() {
+        String injected = "Load the implementer skill. You own fleetd #999. ".repeat(12);
+        String scrape = injected + "\nDev auto - GPT-5.6 Terra OpenAI";
+
+        assertTrue(CompletionResolver.echoesInjectedBrief(scrape, injected));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void pinsTheMaximumTuiChromeExcess() {
+        String injected = "a".repeat(CompletionResolver.ECHO_MIN_CHARS);
+        String underMargin = injected + "b".repeat(CompletionResolver.MAX_ECHO_EXCESS_CHARS);
+        String overMargin = injected + "b".repeat(CompletionResolver.MAX_ECHO_EXCESS_CHARS + 1);
+
+        assertTrue(CompletionResolver.echoesInjectedBrief(underMargin, injected),
+                "the configured excess itself remains an echoed brief");
+        assertFalse(CompletionResolver.echoesInjectedBrief(overMargin, injected),
+                "one character beyond the excess must preserve the scrape as a real report");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void resolvesSynchronouslyBeforePostTurnContextClearing() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText("⏺ previous answer\n❯ ");
@@ -499,7 +522,7 @@ class CompletionResolverTest {
         Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
         ExhaustedPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("usage limit has been reached");
         java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
-        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
         CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, patterns, sink);
 
         var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
@@ -520,7 +543,7 @@ class CompletionResolverTest {
         Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
         ExhaustedPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("usage limit has been reached");
         java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
-        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
         CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, patterns, sink);
 
         var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
@@ -633,21 +656,346 @@ class CompletionResolverTest {
                 "the failure carries the rest of the pane, not only the matched line: " + reason);
     }
 
+    // --- fleetd#211: raw-scrape fallback classification when there is no usable assistant block ---
+
+    @Test
+    void anExhaustionLineWithNoMarkerAndLeadingChromeIsClassifiedFromTheRawScrapeAndNotifiesTheSink() {
+        // No ⏺ anywhere, and the first visible line is TUI chrome (╭). lastAssistantBlock's boundary
+        // scan starts at the top of the raw screen and breaks immediately, so the trimmed block is "".
+        // The fix: fall back to matching the RAW scrape so this doesn't get lost as an empty scrape.
+        String block = """
+                ╭──────────────────────────────────────╮
+                The usage limit has been reached. Try again later.
+                """;
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        ExhaustedPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("usage limit has been reached");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, patterns, sink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone(), "a raw-scrape match still resolves the blocked send");
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.BACKEND_EXHAUSTED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "classified from the raw scrape even though the trimmed block was empty");
+        assertEquals(1, notified.size(),
+                "the sink is the whole point of this ticket — it must be notified: " + notified);
+        assertTrue(notified.get(0).startsWith("term_a: "), "the sink is told which target exhausted");
+        assertTrue(notified.get(0).contains("The usage limit has been reached"),
+                "the sink is told the matched reason: " + notified.get(0));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aBackendErrorLineWithNoMarkerAndLeadingChromeIsClassifiedFromTheRawScrape() {
+        String block = """
+                ╭──────────────────────────────────────╮
+                API Error: 400 invalid request body
+                """;
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none());
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone(), "a raw-scrape backend-error match still resolves the blocked send");
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "classified BACKEND_ERROR from the raw scrape even though the trimmed block was empty");
+        assertTrue(waiter.getNow(null).text().contains("API Error: 400 invalid request body"),
+                "the failure carries the matched line: " + waiter.getNow(null).text());
+        assertTrue(waiter.getNow(null).text().contains("--- pane tail ---"),
+                "fleetd#164: the failure must carry the pane, not only the matched line — with an "
+                        + "empty trimmed block the raw scrape is the only copy of what the member said: "
+                        + waiter.getNow(null).text());
+        assertTrue(waiter.getNow(null).text().contains("╭"),
+                "the carried pane is the raw scrape, chrome included: " + waiter.getNow(null).text());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void anOrdinaryPaneWithANormalAssistantBlockIsUnaffectedByTheRawScrapeFallback() {
+        // Pin: on a pane that already yields a usable block, the fallback branch is never reached —
+        // same outcome, same text, sink not called — even though the raw screen around the marker
+        // would itself match the configured exhausted pattern.
+        String block = "The usage limit has been reached, but this is a leading TUI line above the "
+                + "marker.\n⏺ complete report\n❯ ";
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        ExhaustedPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("usage limit has been reached");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, patterns, sink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone());
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.COMPLETION, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "unchanged: a usable assistant block never reaches the raw-scrape fallback");
+        assertEquals("complete report", waiter.getNow(null).text(), "the reply text is unaffected");
+        assertTrue(notified.isEmpty(), "the fallback never runs, so the sink is never called");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aGenuinelyEmptyScrapeStillFailsAsEmptyAndNeverNotifiesTheSink() {
+        // The false-positive pin: no exhaustion or backend-error text anywhere on the pane (just
+        // chrome, no marker) — the raw-scrape fallback must not manufacture a classification, and
+        // the sink must stay untouched.
+        String block = """
+                ╭──────────────────────────────────────╮
+                │ >                                    │
+                ╰──────────────────────────────────────╯
+                """;
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        ExhaustedPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("usage limit has been reached");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> notified.add(target + ": " + reason);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous, patterns, sink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone(), "an empty scrape must still resolve the send, not hang");
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "no exhaustion or backend-error text anywhere ⇒ this stays the ordinary empty-scrape failure");
+        assertTrue(waiter.getNow(null).text().toLowerCase().contains("empty"),
+                "the failure still says the scrape was empty: " + waiter.getNow(null).text());
+        assertTrue(notified.isEmpty(), "a genuinely empty pane must never quarantine a credential");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void coverageIsOffWhenNoProfileHasAPatternConfigured() {
         assertEquals("off (no profile has an exhaustedPattern configured; profiles: [terra])",
-                CompletionResolver.coverage(Set.of("terra"), Set.of()));
+                CompletionResolver.coverage("exhaustedPattern", Set.of("terra"), Set.of()));
     }
 
     @Test
     void coverageIsFullWhenEveryProfileHasAPatternConfigured() {
         assertEquals("full (all profiles configured: [gx10, terra])",
-                CompletionResolver.coverage(Set.of("terra", "gx10"), Set.of("terra", "gx10")));
+                CompletionResolver.coverage("exhaustedPattern", Set.of("terra", "gx10"), Set.of("terra", "gx10")));
     }
 
     @Test
     void coverageIsPartialAndNamesWhichProfilesAreConfigured() {
         assertEquals("partial (configured: [terra]; not configured: [gx10])",
-                CompletionResolver.coverage(Set.of("terra", "gx10"), Set.of("terra")));
+                CompletionResolver.coverage("exhaustedPattern", Set.of("terra", "gx10"), Set.of("terra")));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Found live on 2026-09-03, reading a real boot log rather than a test. {@code coverage} is
+     * shared by two call sites — CB-578's {@code exhaustedPattern} line and fleetd#201 Unit 5's
+     * {@code errorPattern} line — but its "off" branch hard-coded the word {@code exhaustedPattern}.
+     * So a daemon with no {@code errorPattern} anywhere printed "no profile has an exhaustedPattern
+     * configured" directly beneath a line reporting that two profiles DO have one. Both lines were
+     * individually defensible and together they were nonsense, and the message sent an operator to
+     * set the wrong key.
+     *
+     * <p>Every earlier test here passed the exhaustion case only, so none of them could see it. This
+     * one pins that the message names the key the caller actually meant.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void coverageNamesTheConfigKeyItsCallerMeansRatherThanAlwaysSayingExhaustedPattern() {
+        assertEquals("off (no profile has an errorPattern configured; profiles: [gx10, terra])",
+                CompletionResolver.coverage("errorPattern", Set.of("terra", "gx10"), Set.of()));
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd#201 Unit 1: target-keyed backend-error pattern + typed sink ----------------------
+
+    @Test
+    void aConfiguredBackendErrorPatternClassifiesAMatchAsAFailureAndNotifiesTheSinkOnce() {
+        String block = "⏺ 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected\n❯ ";
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        BackendErrorSink sink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + matchedLine);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, sink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone(), "a configured-pattern match still resolves the blocked send");
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind());
+        assertEquals(1, notified.size(), "the sink fires exactly once for the winning classification");
+        assertEquals("term_a: 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected", notified.get(0));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aLosingBackendErrorClassificationNeverNotifiesTheSink() {
+        // The waiter was already resolved (e.g. by the worker's own fleet_reply) before this scrape
+        // landed — resolveFailure loses the race and must return false, so the sink must not fire.
+        String block = "⏺ 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected\n❯ ";
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        BackendErrorSink sink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + matchedLine);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, sink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        var turn = new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null);
+        assertTrue(rendezvous.resolveCompletion(waiter, "already replied")); // fleet_reply won first
+
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", turn);
+
+        assertTrue(notified.isEmpty(), "a classification that loses the race must not fire the sink");
+        assertEquals("already replied", waiter.getNow(null).text(), "the earlier resolution stands untouched");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aBackendErrorClassificationThatLosesARealRaceDuringTheScrapeNeverNotifiesTheSink() {
+        // The test above pre-resolves the waiter BEFORE calling resolve(), so it is caught by
+        // resolve()'s own top-of-method isDone() guard before ever reaching the win-gated
+        // resolveFailure call this unit adds — it proves the outcome, not the specific gate. This
+        // test forces the actual race window fleetd#201 must be safe in: a genuine fleet_reply lands
+        // WHILE the herdr scrape for this turn is in flight, i.e. AFTER resolve() has already passed
+        // the top guard (waiter not done yet) and committed to reading the pane, but BEFORE it
+        // reaches the "if (rendezvous.resolveFailure(...))" line below. The side effect is attached
+        // to the one real I/O step resolve() performs between those two points: the herdr
+        // "agent.read" call itself.
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        ObjectMapper mapper = new ObjectMapper();
+        HerdrClient racingDuringScrape = new HerdrClient() {
+            @Override
+            public JsonNode call(String method, Object params) {
+                if ("agent.read".equals(method)) {
+                    // The real fleet_reply that wins the race, landing mid-scrape.
+                    assertTrue(rendezvous.resolve("term_a", "a genuine fleet_reply landed first"),
+                            "the racing reply must land while the waiter is still open");
+                }
+                try {
+                    return mapper.readTree(mapper.writeValueAsString(java.util.Map.of(
+                            "type", "agent_read",
+                            "read", java.util.Map.of("text",
+                                    "⏺ 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected\n❯ "))));
+                } catch (Exception e) {
+                    throw new RuntimeException(e);
+                }
+            }
+
+            @Override
+            public void close() {
+            }
+        };
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        BackendErrorSink sink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + matchedLine);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(racingDuringScrape), rendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, sink);
+
+        var turn = new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null); // not done yet — passes the top guard
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", turn);
+
+        assertTrue(notified.isEmpty(),
+                "a classification that loses a real race during the scrape must not fire the sink");
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.REPLY, waiter.getNow(null).kind(), "the genuine fleet_reply stands");
+        assertEquals("a genuine fleet_reply landed first", waiter.getNow(null).text());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void exhaustionKeepsWinningOverBackendErrorEvenWhenBothPatternsMatchTheSameLine() {
+        // A line matching both a configured exhausted pattern AND a configured backend-error pattern
+        // must classify BACKEND_EXHAUSTED and call only the ExhaustionSink — the ordering fleetd#578
+        // already relies on must not change.
+        String block = "⏺ The usage limit has been reached. Try again later.\n❯ ";
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        ExhaustedPatternLookup exhausted = target -> Pattern.compile("usage limit has been reached");
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup backendErrors = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)usage limit");
+        java.util.List<String> exhaustedNotified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        java.util.List<String> backendErrorNotified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink exhaustionSink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhaustedNotified.add(target);
+        BackendErrorSink backendErrorSink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> backendErrorNotified.add(target);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous,
+                exhausted, exhaustionSink, backendErrors, backendErrorSink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.BACKEND_EXHAUSTED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "exhaustion must keep winning over backend error");
+        assertEquals(1, exhaustedNotified.size(), "the exhaustion sink fires");
+        assertTrue(backendErrorNotified.isEmpty(), "the backend-error sink must never fire for this turn");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aConfiguredPatternAlsoClassifiesTheRawScrapeFallbackAndNotifiesTheSink() {
+        // No ⏺ marker and leading TUI chrome ⇒ lastAssistantBlock() yields "", so classification must
+        // fall back to the raw scrape (fleetd#211) — and it must use the configured pattern too.
+        String block = """
+                ╭──────────────────────────────────────╮
+                503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected
+                """;
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText(block);
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        BackendErrorSink sink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + matchedLine);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, sink);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null));
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone(), "a raw-scrape configured-pattern match still resolves the blocked send");
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "classified from the raw scrape even though the trimmed block was empty");
+        assertEquals(1, notified.size(), "the sink fires exactly once from the raw-scrape path");
+        assertTrue(notified.get(0).contains("503 Service Unavailable"), notified.get(0));
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd#201 Unit 1: classification inside the fleetd#164 MIN_TURN_NANOS floor -------------
+
+    @Test
+    void aMatchingErrorInsideTheFloorIsTypedAndNotifiesTheSink() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText("⏺ 503 Service Unavailable: upstream credential rejected\n❯ ");
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        long[] clock = {10_000_000_000L};
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        BackendErrorSink sink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + matchedLine);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, sink, () -> clock[0]);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        var turn = new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null, clock[0]); // delivered "now"
+        clock[0] += CompletionResolver.MIN_TURN_NANOS - 1; // inside the floor
+
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", turn);
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone());
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind());
+        assertEquals(1, notified.size(), "a matching error inside the floor notifies the sink");
+        assertTrue(notified.get(0).contains("503 Service Unavailable"), notified.get(0));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aNonMatchInsideTheFloorStaysGenericAndNeverNotifiesTheSink() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr().readText("⏺ still starting up\n❯ ");
+        Rendezvous rendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        long[] clock = {10_000_000_000L};
+        BackendErrorPatternLookup patterns = target -> Pattern.compile("(?i)503 Service Unavailable");
+        java.util.List<String> notified = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        BackendErrorSink sink = (target, matchedLine, reason) -> notified.add(target + ": " + matchedLine);
+        CompletionResolver resolver = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(herdr), rendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(), patterns, sink, () -> clock[0]);
+
+        var waiter = rendezvous.open("term_a");
+        var turn = new CompletionResolver.InFlight(waiter, null, clock[0]); // delivered "now"
+        clock[0] += CompletionResolver.MIN_TURN_NANOS - 1; // inside the floor
+
+        resolver.resolve("term_a", turn);
+
+        assertTrue(waiter.isDone());
+        assertEquals(Rendezvous.Kind.FAILED, waiter.getNow(null).kind(),
+                "still a failure — the floor itself, not the pattern, is why");
+        assertTrue(waiter.getNow(null).text().contains("too fast to be real work"),
+                "a non-match inside the floor stays the generic too-fast reason: " + waiter.getNow(null).text());
+        assertTrue(notified.isEmpty(), "a non-match must never notify the typed sink");
     }
 }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/inject/ExhaustionSinkForwardingHazardTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.inject;
+
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #234. Round 3: calls the REAL production factory, {@link ExhaustionSink#forwardingTo},
+ * rather than rebuilding its shape locally — a round-2 version of this test built its own copy of
+ * the forwarder inline, so mutating {@code Fleetd.java}'s actual forwarder back into a lambda left
+ * that copy untouched and the test kept passing while production had regressed. Calling the shared
+ * factory here means the same object under test IS the object {@code Fleetd.java} builds via
+ * {@code ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo(exhaustionSinkRef::get)}.
+ *
+ * <p>Round 4: the 3-arg overload is now {@link ExhaustionSink}'s single abstract method, so {@code
+ * forwardingTo} itself is a one-line lambda and every sink below can safely be one too — there is
+ * no 2-arg overload left for any of them to silently bind to instead. This test still catches a
+ * regression inside {@code forwardingTo}'s body (e.g. one that calls the 2-arg default and drops
+ * the hint that way) because it still goes through the shared factory rather than a rebuilt copy.
+ */
+class ExhaustionSinkForwardingHazardTest {
+
+    @Test
+    void forwardingToDeliversTheProfileHintToWhateverSinkTheSupplierCurrentlyReturns() {
+        AtomicReference<String> hintSeenByRealSink = new AtomicReference<>("NEVER CALLED");
+        ExhaustionSink real = (target, reason, profileHint) -> hintSeenByRealSink.set(profileHint);
+
+        // Same shape Fleetd.java uses: a reference that starts at none() and is repointed later.
+        AtomicReference<ExhaustionSink> ref = new AtomicReference<>(ExhaustionSink.none());
+        ExhaustionSink forwarding = ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo(ref::get);
+        ref.set(real);
+
+        forwarding.onExhausted("term_x", "model mismatch", "gx");
+
+        assertEquals("gx", hintSeenByRealSink.get(),
+                "ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo must deliver the profile hint to the sink the supplier "
+                        + "currently returns — the exact object Fleetd.java's forwarder is built from");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcpTest.java

@@ -1,10 +1,13 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
 
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.CallerResolver;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.MemberRegistry;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.Principal;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.PaneLocator;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.Injector;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.msg.MessageService;
@@ -17,6 +20,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.session.MemberSession;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.session.WorktreeRequest;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.member.ClaudeCodeLauncher;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.member.CompositePeerLauncher;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementPolicies;
 import io.modelcontextprotocol.spec.McpSchema;
@@ -30,6 +34,7 @@ import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.concurrent.CompletableFuture;
 import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+import java.util.function.Function;
 
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
 
@@ -497,6 +502,25 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantinedForSeconds\":1800"), out);
     }
 
+    /** fleetd #201 Unit 5: {@code coolingOff} is a SEPARATE map from {@code quarantined}. */
+    @Test
+    void profilesReportsACoolingOffCredentialInASeparateMap() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t1", "API Error: rate limited");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t2", "API Error: rate limited"); // 2nd distinct target starts the incident
+        FleetMcp.OutageSource outage = new FleetMcp.OutageSource(
+                profile -> "ltms-local".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, outagePolicy);
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.profiles(
+                workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")), FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), outage);
+        assertNotEquals(Boolean.TRUE, res.isError());
+        String out = textOf(res);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"coolingOff\""), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("shared-openai"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"coolingOffForSeconds\":60"), out);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("\"quarantined\""), "nothing is exhaustion-quarantined here: " + out);
+    }
+
     @Test
     void listReportsTrackedWorkers() {
         FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -628,6 +652,123 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertEquals(2, out.split("\"free\":0", -1).length - 1, out);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176 stage 2 (correcting the inert stage 1): two {@code subscription: true} profiles,
+     * {@code opus} and {@code sonnet}, neither setting an explicit {@code credentialId} — the exact
+     * shape measured on the live Mac fleet. This is INTENDED, not a regression: a real Claude usage
+     * limit on the one login behind both profiles really does take out every profile running on it,
+     * the same way {@code credentialId: openai-shared} already lets two OpenAI-backed profiles share
+     * one quarantine (see {@code everyProfileSharingTheQuarantinedCredentialReportsZeroFree} above).
+     * The {@code credentialIdFor} function here is built the same way {@code Fleetd.main} wires it —
+     * {@code profile -> profiles.get(profile).effectiveCredentialId()} — so this proves the actual
+     * config-driven behaviour, not just {@code capacityView}'s arithmetic with a hand-picked string.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void quarantiningOneSubscriptionProfileZeroesFreeOnTheOtherSharingTheSameAccount() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(
+                "opus", new FleetConfig.Profile("opus", null, "claude-opus-4", null, null, null,
+                        "tab", "fleet", "w #{n}", null, null, null, null, null, null, null,
+                        null, 3, true, null, null, null),
+                "sonnet", new FleetConfig.Profile("sonnet", null, "claude-sonnet-5", null, null, null,
+                        "tab", "fleet", "w #{n}", null, null, null, null, null, null, null,
+                        null, 3, true, null, null, null));
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(20));
+        quarantine.quarantine(FleetConfig.Profile.SUBSCRIPTION_CREDENTIAL_ID);
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource source = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(profile -> {
+            FleetConfig.Profile configured = profiles.get(profile);
+            return configured == null ? null : configured.effectiveCredentialId();
+        }, quarantine);
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 3,
+                () -> Set.of("opus", "sonnet"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                source, Map.of(), ""));
+
+        assertEquals(2, out.split("\"free\":0", -1).length - 1,
+                "opus and sonnet share one Claude login with neither setting credentialId, so quarantining "
+                        + "opus's account must also zero sonnet's free — this is intended, not a side effect: "
+                        + out);
+        assertEquals(2, out.split("\"credentialId\":\"" + FleetConfig.Profile.SUBSCRIPTION_CREDENTIAL_ID + "\"", -1)
+                .length - 1, out);
+    }
+
+    /** fleetd #201 Unit 5: cool-off forces {@code free:0} but never adds {@code quarantinedForSeconds}. */
+    @Test
+    void coolingOffProfileReportsZeroFreeButNeverQuarantinedForSeconds() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t1", "API Error: rate limited");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t2", "API Error: rate limited");
+        FleetMcp.OutageSource outage = new FleetMcp.OutageSource(
+                profile -> "terra".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, outagePolicy);
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 2,
+                () -> Set.of("terra"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), outage, Map.of(), ""));
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"profile\":\"terra\""), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"free\":0"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"credentialId\":\"shared-openai\""), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"coolingOffForSeconds\":60"), out);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("quarantinedForSeconds"),
+                "exhaustion quarantine was never active — this key must not appear: " + out);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The two checks are independent — a profile can be BOTH exhaustion-quarantined AND cooling off
+     * for the same credential at once, and both maps/fields report it simultaneously.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void bothQuarantineAndCoolingOffCanFireForTheSameProfileAtOnce() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(20));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        FleetMcp.QuarantineSource quarantineSource = new FleetMcp.QuarantineSource(
+                profile -> "terra".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, quarantine);
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t1", "API Error: rate limited");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t2", "API Error: rate limited");
+        FleetMcp.OutageSource outage = new FleetMcp.OutageSource(
+                profile -> "terra".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, outagePolicy);
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 2,
+                () -> Set.of("terra"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                quarantineSource, outage, Map.of(), ""));
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"free\":0"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"quarantinedForSeconds\":1200"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"coolingOffForSeconds\":60"), out);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void listAndProfilesAgreeOnWhatIsCoolingOff() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t1", "API Error: rate limited");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "t2", "API Error: rate limited");
+        FleetMcp.OutageSource outage = new FleetMcp.OutageSource(
+                profile -> "ltms-local".equals(profile) ? "shared-openai" : null, outagePolicy);
+        var workers = workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw"));
+
+        String listOut = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workers, sessions, null,
+                new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 2, () -> Set.of("ltms-local"), () -> 0),
+                new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"), FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), outage,
+                Map.of(), ""));
+        String profilesOut = textOf(FleetMcp.profiles(workers, FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), outage));
+
+        assertTrue(listOut.contains("\"free\":0"), listOut);
+        assertTrue(listOut.contains("\"credentialId\":\"shared-openai\""), listOut);
+        assertTrue(profilesOut.contains("\"coolingOff\""), profilesOut);
+        assertTrue(profilesOut.contains("shared-openai"), profilesOut);
+    }
+
     @Test
     void listAndProfilesAgreeOnWhatIsQuarantined() {
         FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -669,6 +810,137 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertFalse(out.contains("quarantinedForSeconds"), out);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #257: this is the exact shape measured on the Mac fleet — {@code maxLoad:3, live:2},
+     * one lead sharing the subscription. The OLD formula ({@code max(0, cap - live - leadSeats)})
+     * reported {@code free:0} here, disagreeing with the real spawn gate (which never read
+     * {@code leadSeats} and would still grant one more spawn — see
+     * {@code freeMatchesWhatTheRealPlacementGateActuallyGrants} below for that proof against the
+     * actual gate). {@code free} must report {@code 1}: {@code leadSeats} is carried as a fact, not
+     * subtracted.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void leadSeatIsReportedButNeverSubtractedFromFree() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource leadSeats = new FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource(
+                profile -> "sonnet".equals(profile) ? 1 : 0);
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 2, profile -> 3,
+                () -> Set.of("sonnet"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), leadSeats, Map.of(), "", null));
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"maxLoad\":3"), "maxLoad itself must be left untouched: " + out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"live\":2"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"free\":1"), "free is maxLoad - live only, never minus leadSeats: " + out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"leadSeats\":1"), "leadSeats is still reported, just not subtracted: " + out);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #257: the OTHER measurement in the issue — a completely idle fleet with a lead sharing
+     * the subscription. {@code maxLoad:3, live:0} must report {@code free:3}, matching what the
+     * spawn gate (which has no notion of a lead's seat) would actually grant.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void leadSeatDoesNotLowerFreeOnAnOtherwiseIdleSubscriptionProfile() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+        FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource leadSeats = new FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource(
+                profile -> "sonnet".equals(profile) ? 1 : 0);
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 3,
+                () -> Set.of("sonnet"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), leadSeats, Map.of(), "", null));
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"live\":0"), out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"free\":3"), "the real gate never subtracts the lead's seat: " + out);
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"leadSeats\":1"), out);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #257 — the defect, driven against the REAL placement gate, not a copy of its
+     * arithmetic. {@code free} must equal exactly how many more spawns
+     * {@link CompositePeerLauncher#spawn} (routed through the same {@link SessionManager} fleet_spawn
+     * itself uses) will grant on this profile right now: this test reads whatever number
+     * {@code fleet_list}'s real {@code listFleet} call reports, then drives that many spawns through
+     * the REAL composite launcher and asserts every one succeeds, and the next one — one past what
+     * fleet_list promised — is refused. A test that instead hand-computed {@code cap - live} and
+     * compared it to {@code free} would pass even if both sides shared the same wrong formula (this
+     * repo has been bitten by exactly that before); this one only passes when fleet_list's number and
+     * the gate's real behaviour actually agree.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code liveCount} here is wired the same way {@code Fleetd.main} wires it in production: one
+     * function, read by both the {@link CompositePeerLauncher}'s {@code maxLoad} gate and
+     * {@code fleet_list}'s {@code CapacitySource}, off the SAME {@link SessionManager#roster()} — so
+     * the two paths cannot silently drift on what "live" means.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void freeMatchesWhatTheRealPlacementGateActuallyGrants() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig.Profile wcfg = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "sonnet", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", null,
+                "tab", "fleetd-workers", "worker: {profile} #{n}", null,
+                null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 3);
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(wcfg.profile(), wcfg);
+        ClaudeCodeLauncher delegate = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(
+                new AgentControl(h), new WorkspaceControl(h), new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                profiles, wcfg.profile(), k -> "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN".equals(k) ? "tok" : null);
+
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<SessionManager> smRef =
+                new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<>();
+        Function<String, Integer> liveCount = profile -> (int) smRef.get().roster().stream()
+                .filter(s -> profile.equals(s.profile())).count();
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(
+                List.of(delegate), wcfg.profile(), profiles, PlacementPolicies.fixed(), liveCount);
+        SessionManager sm = new SessionManager(composite);
+        smRef.set(sm);
+
+        // Two members already live — the exact shape measured in fleetd #257 (maxLoad:3, live:2).
+        assertFalse(FleetMcp.spawn(sm, "sonnet").isError(), "setup: first live member must spawn cleanly");
+        assertFalse(FleetMcp.spawn(sm, "sonnet").isError(), "setup: second live member must spawn cleanly");
+
+        // A lead session shares this profile's subscription — leadSeats:1, same as the ticket.
+        FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource leadSeats = new FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource(p -> "sonnet".equals(p) ? 1 : 0);
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(composite, sm, null,
+                new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(liveCount, p -> profiles.get(p).maxLoad(), profiles::keySet, () -> 0),
+                new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"), FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(),
+                FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), leadSeats, Map.of(), "", null));
+        int reportedFree = extractInt(out, "free");
+
+        for (int i = 0; i < reportedFree; i++) {
+            McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.spawn(sm, "sonnet");
+            assertFalse(res.isError(), "fleet_list promised free:" + reportedFree + "; spawn #" + (i + 1)
+                    + " of that many was refused by the real gate: " + textOf(res));
+        }
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult overflow = FleetMcp.spawn(sm, "sonnet");
+        assertTrue(overflow.isError(), "fleet_list reported free:" + reportedFree
+                + " but the real placement gate granted at least one more spawn than that: " + textOf(overflow));
+    }
+
+    private static int extractInt(String json, String key) {
+        java.util.regex.Matcher m = java.util.regex.Pattern.compile("\"" + key + "\":(-?\\d+)").matcher(json);
+        assertTrue(m.find(), "no \"" + key + "\" field in: " + json);
+        return Integer.parseInt(m.group(1));
+    }
+
+    /** A profile with no lead seats reported must be byte-identical to before this ticket. */
+    @Test
+    void zeroLeadSeatsOmitsTheKeyAndLeavesFreeUnchanged() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")));
+
+        String out = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(workerService(h, "http://gx00.gw:8000", Set.of("gx00.gw")),
+                sessions, null, new FleetMcp.CapacitySource(profile -> 0, profile -> 2,
+                () -> Set.of("terra"), () -> 0), new FleetMcp.HealthCoverageSource(() -> "off"),
+                FleetMcp.QuarantineSource.none(), FleetMcp.OutageSource.none(), FleetMcp.LeadSeatSource.none(),
+                Map.of(), "", null));
+
+        assertTrue(out.contains("\"free\":2"), out);
+        assertFalse(out.contains("leadSeats"), "no lead shares this profile's credential: " + out);
+    }
+
     @Test
     void listReportsLeadsAndFlagsTheCallersOwnRow() {
         FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -1024,6 +1296,87 @@ class FleetMcpTest {
         assertTrue(textOf(res).contains("architect, dev, reviewer"), textOf(res));
     }
 
+    // ── CB-619 / fleetd #123: a spawn asking for a role its profile has no slot for must be
+    //    refused, never silently demoted with the roster still lying about it ───────────────────
+
+    /** Two profiles on one launcher, so a role's pool can name one and exclude the other. */
+    private static ClaudeCodeLauncher architectCapableLauncher(FakeHerdr h) {
+        FleetConfig.Profile opus = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "opus", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", null,
+                "tab", "fleetd-workers", "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        FleetConfig.Profile sonnet = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "sonnet", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", null,
+                "tab", "fleetd-workers", "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        return new ClaudeCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(h), new WorkspaceControl(h),
+                new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")), Map.of("opus", opus, "sonnet", sonnet),
+                "sonnet", _ -> "tok");
+    }
+
+    /** {@code fleet.architects} carries only {@code opus} — {@code sonnet} has no matching slot. */
+    private static MemberRegistry architectRegistry() {
+        return new MemberRegistry(new FleetConfig.Fleet(Map.of(),
+                Map.of("opus", new FleetConfig.Slot("opus")), Map.of(), Map.of(), null));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The literal defect (fleetd #123): {@code role=architect, profile=sonnet}, where
+     * {@code fleet.architects} carries only {@code opus}. Drives the real path —
+     * {@link FleetMcp#spawn} calls {@link SessionManager#acquire}, which must refuse before ever
+     * reaching the real {@link ClaudeCodeLauncher} — never {@link MemberRegistry#bind} called
+     * directly, which would walk around the gate under test.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void spawnRefusesAnArchitectWithNoMatchingSlotAndNeverTouchesTheLauncher() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(architectCapableLauncher(h));
+        sessions.setMemberLifecycle(architectRegistry());
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult res = FleetMcp.spawn(sessions, "sonnet", "architect",
+                null, null, null, null, null, null);
+
+        assertEquals(Boolean.TRUE, res.isError(), textOf(res));
+        String msg = textOf(res);
+        assertTrue(msg.contains("architect"), "names the role asked for: " + msg);
+        assertTrue(msg.contains("sonnet"), "names the profile: " + msg);
+        assertTrue(msg.contains("opus"), "names the pool that does carry the role: " + msg);
+        assertTrue(sessions.roster().isEmpty(), "a refused spawn must register no session");
+        assertTrue(h.calls.stream().noneMatch(c -> c.method().equals("agent.start")),
+                "a refused spawn must never reach the launcher — no process should ever start");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Positive control / parity check: when the profile DOES carry a slot, the spawn succeeds, and
+     * {@code GET /members} ({@link FleetMcp#listFleet}) and {@code fleet_whoami}
+     * ({@link FleetMcp#whoami}) — resolved through the SAME live {@link MemberRegistry} binding via
+     * a real {@link CallerResolver}, exactly as the daemon resolves a real MCP caller — must never
+     * disagree about this one live member's role.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void rosterAndWhoamiAgreeOnceTheArchitectSlotBinds() {
+        FakeHerdr h = new FakeHerdr();
+        // Pin the spawn onto the one pane FakeHerdr's canned pane.process_info maps to WORKER_PID,
+        // so a CallerResolver can resolve THIS session's own terminal, not a fixture double.
+        h.pinNextStarts(1, "term_a", "w2:p7");
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(architectCapableLauncher(h));
+        MemberRegistry members = architectRegistry();
+        sessions.setMemberLifecycle(members);
+
+        McpSchema.CallToolResult spawnRes = FleetMcp.spawn(sessions, "opus", "architect",
+                null, null, null, null, null, null);
+        assertNotEquals(Boolean.TRUE, spawnRes.isError(), textOf(spawnRes));
+        assertTrue(textOf(spawnRes).contains("\"role\":\"architect\""), textOf(spawnRes));
+
+        String roster = textOf(FleetMcp.listFleet(architectCapableLauncher(h), sessions, Map.of(), ""));
+        assertTrue(roster.contains("\"role\":\"architect\""), "GET /members: " + roster);
+
+        ConnectionIdentity identity = new ConnectionIdentity(new PaneLocator(h), _ -> FakeHerdr.WORKER_PID);
+        CallerResolver resolver = CallerResolver.withLeadsAndMembers(identity, false, null, Map::of, members);
+        Principal caller = resolver.resolve("127.0.0.1", 42, null);
+        assertTrue(caller.isArchitect(), "fleet_whoami's own resolver must agree the terminal is bound");
+        String whoami = textOf(FleetMcp.whoami(caller, sessions));
+        assertTrue(whoami.contains("\"role\":\"architect\""), "fleet_whoami: " + whoami);
+    }
+
     // ── CB-584: fleet_spawn accepts sessionName/resumeSessionId; roster shows agentSessionId ──
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/McpContractDocTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.mcp;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.regex.Matcher;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #114 (CB-609): the guard that lets {@code docs/MCP-Contract.md} name a tool at all.
+ *
+ * <p>That page was written in July 2026, before any MCP code existed, and then did not follow the
+ * code. By August it named two tools that had never been built, omitted five that shipped, had the
+ * wrong name for nearly every parameter, and still described a caller-identity rule that was a
+ * privilege bug by then. Nothing failed, because nothing checked it — and {@code CLAUDE.md} sends
+ * every session in the fleet to that page.
+ *
+ * <p>The fix was to delete the tool catalogue rather than correct it: a hand-maintained second copy
+ * of the tool surface is the defect, not the particular errors it had accumulated. What survives is
+ * the flows, which are shapes rather than names. But the flows still have to say {@code fleet_send}
+ * somewhere to be readable, and that is exactly the sentence that rots. This test is what makes it
+ * safe to write.
+ *
+ * <p><b>It checks source text, not behaviour.</b> It reads the Markdown and reads {@link FleetMcp}'s
+ * source, and it only catches a name in the doc that the server does not register. It cannot catch a
+ * flow that describes the wrong order, or a parameter name in prose — those are not name-shaped. The
+ * doc's own header carries that caveat for its readers.
+ */
+class McpContractDocTest {
+
+    /** Tests run with the module directory as cwd, so the repo-root doc is one level up. */
+    private static final Path DOC = Path.of("../docs/MCP-Contract.md");
+    private static final Path MCP_SOURCE = Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/mcp/FleetMcp.java");
+
+    private static Set<String> matches(Path file, String regex) throws Exception {
+        Matcher m = Pattern.compile(regex).matcher(Files.readString(file));
+        Set<String> found = new LinkedHashSet<>();
+        while (m.find()) {
+            found.add(m.group(1));
+        }
+        return found;
+    }
+
+    /** Every {@code fleet_*} the doc mentions, in prose or in a diagram. */
+    private static Set<String> toolsNamedInTheDoc() throws Exception {
+        return matches(DOC, "(fleet_[a-z_]+)");
+    }
+
+    /** Every tool {@link FleetMcp} actually registers, read from its {@code tool("…")} calls. */
+    private static Set<String> toolsTheServerRegisters() throws Exception {
+        return matches(MCP_SOURCE, "tool\\(\"(fleet_[a-z_]+)\"");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] every fleet_* tool named in MCP-Contract.md is one the server registers")
+    void theDocNamesNoToolThatDoesNotExist() throws Exception {
+        Set<String> registered = toolsTheServerRegisters();
+        Set<String> named = toolsNamedInTheDoc();
+
+        Set<String> unknown = new LinkedHashSet<>(named);
+        unknown.removeAll(registered);
+
+        assertTrue(unknown.isEmpty(),
+                "docs/MCP-Contract.md names " + unknown + ", which FleetMcp does not register. "
+                        + "Checked " + named.size() + " name(s) in the doc against " + registered.size()
+                        + " registered tool(s): " + registered + ". This is the fleetd #114 defect "
+                        + "recurring — the doc named fleet_read and fleet_cancel for weeks after the "
+                        + "code shipped without them. Either fix the name or drop it from the page; do "
+                        + "NOT weaken this test.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The denominator guard. The check above passes trivially if the doc stops naming any tool at
+     * all — an empty set is a subset of everything. A checker that can silently check nothing is the
+     * fleetd #113 shape, so this pins that the doc really is still describing the flows, and that
+     * the registration scrape really did find the server's tools.
+     */
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] the doc/server name check is not vacuous — both sides found names")
+    void theCheckActuallyHasSomethingToCheck() throws Exception {
+        Set<String> registered = toolsTheServerRegisters();
+        Set<String> named = toolsNamedInTheDoc();
+
+        assertTrue(registered.size() >= 10,
+                "scraped only " + registered.size() + " tool registrations from FleetMcp (" + registered
+                        + "); the server registers eleven, so the tool(\"…\") scrape has stopped matching "
+                        + "and the check above is now vacuous");
+        assertTrue(named.size() >= 4,
+                "docs/MCP-Contract.md names only " + named.size() + " fleet_* tool(s) (" + named + "). "
+                        + "The flows describe delegation, clarification, detached delivery and the "
+                        + "turn-done fallback, so it should name several. Too few means the page has been "
+                        + "gutted and this test is guarding nothing.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #114's actual lesson. The catalogue was deleted on purpose; a well-meaning "let me just
+     * document the tools here" restores the exact second copy that drifted for a month.
+     */
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] MCP-Contract.md still says it is not the tool reference")
+    void theDocStillDisclaimsBeingTheToolReference() throws Exception {
+        String doc = Files.readString(DOC);
+        assertTrue(doc.contains("**What this page is NOT: a tool reference.**"),
+                "docs/MCP-Contract.md must keep saying it is not the tool reference. That sentence is "
+                        + "the fix for fleetd #114: the page carried a hand-maintained tool catalogue that "
+                        + "drifted from the code for a month while CLAUDE.md pointed every session at it.");
+        assertEquals(0, countTables(doc.substring(0, doc.indexOf("## 1. Rendezvous flows"))),
+                "the header of docs/MCP-Contract.md must not grow a tool/parameter table — that is the "
+                        + "second copy fleetd #114 deleted");
+    }
+
+    private static int countTables(String markdown) {
+        return (int) markdown.lines().filter(l -> l.strip().startsWith("|")).count();
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/CompositePeerLauncherTest.java

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerHandle;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerLauncher;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerUnreachableException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.SpawnRequest;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendOutagePolicy;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.PlacementPolicies;
@@ -911,4 +912,185 @@ class CompositePeerLauncherTest {
         assertDoesNotThrow(() -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("claude", null, null)));
         assertDoesNotThrow(() -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("gemini", null, null)));
     }
+
+    // ── fleetd #201 Unit 5: repeated backend errors cool a credential off — a SEPARATE, shorter- ──
+    // ── lived mechanism from CB-578 stage B quarantine above, never merged with it ───────────────
+
+    @Test
+    void explicitSpawnOntoACoolingOffProfileIsRefusedNamingTheCredentialAndRemainingTime() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        // Two DISTINCT targets on the same credential — evidenceCount() counts distinct targets,
+        // never raw events, so one target repeating a classified error can never mint an incident.
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500");
+        assertTrue(outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-2", "API Error: 500").isPresent(),
+                "the second distinct target crosses the threshold and starts the cool-off");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.fixed(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class,
+                () -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null)));
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("sol"), "message names the profile: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("shared-openai"), "message names the credential: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cooling off"), "message says cooling off, not exhausted: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("60"), "message names roughly when it lifts: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertEquals(0, adapter.spawnCount("sol"), "the cooling-off profile is never delegated to");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * A single error from one target must never cool a credential off — the threshold is on
+     * distinct targets. This proves the spawn gate really reads {@link BackendOutagePolicy}'s
+     * result rather than reacting to any recorded event.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void explicitSpawnIsNotRefusedAfterOnlyOneBackendErrorOnOneTarget() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        assertTrue(outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500").isEmpty(),
+                "one distinct target is below THRESHOLD=2 — no incident yet");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.fixed(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null)),
+                "one target's error never cools the credential off");
+        assertEquals(1, adapter.spawnCount("sol"));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * sol and terra share one OpenAI credential; cooling off because of an outage classified via
+     * ONE of them must lock out the other too, exactly like CB-578 stage B quarantine does.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void twoProfilesSharingACredentialAreBothCoolingOffByOneOutageIncident() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-2", "API Error: 500");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.fixed(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+
+        assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null)));
+        assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("terra", null, null)),
+                "terra shares sol's credential, so it must be locked out too");
+        assertEquals(0, adapter.spawnCount("sol"));
+        assertEquals(0, adapter.spawnCount("terra"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void placementSkipsACoolingOffProfileAndRoutesToAnotherOne() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "b", stubWorker("b"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-2", "API Error: 500");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.weighted(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+
+        PeerHandle h = composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null));
+        assertEquals("b", h.profile(), "sol is cooling off, so an unqualified spawn must land on b");
+        assertEquals(0, adapter.spawnCount("sol"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void automaticPlacementNamesCoolingOffWhenEveryCandidateIsCoolingOff() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-2", "API Error: 500");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.weighted(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+
+        // PlacementPolicy.select throws uncaught out of spawn() when available() is empty — never
+        // wrapped in PeerUnreachableException, which is only for a delegate that actually refused.
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class,
+                () -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null)),
+                "both candidates share the cooling-off credential — nothing is available");
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cooling off"),
+                "message says cooling off, not exhausted, since nothing here is quarantined: " + e.getMessage());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aCoolOffLiftsOnTheInjectedClockAndTheProfileBecomesSpawnableAgain() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "b", stubWorker("b"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        AtomicLong nowNanos = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(nowNanos::get);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-2", "API Error: 500");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.fixed(), _ -> 0, null, BackendQuarantine.none(), outagePolicy);
+
+        assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null)),
+                "still inside the 60s cool-off");
+
+        nowNanos.set(TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(61));
+
+        PeerHandle h = composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null));
+        assertEquals("sol", h.profile(), "the cool-off expired on the injected clock — sol is spawnable again");
+        assertEquals(1, adapter.spawnCount("sol"));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * A credential that is BOTH exhaustion-quarantined (CB-578 stage B) and cooling off (fleetd
+     * #201 Unit 5) at once — the two checks are independent and can both be true for one profile.
+     * Exhaustion quarantine must win: the refusal names quarantine, never cooling off, because
+     * {@code enforceNotQuarantined} is checked (and throws) before {@code enforceNotCoolingOff} ever
+     * runs.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void quarantineWinsOverCoolingOffWhenBothAreActiveOnTheSameCredential() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = ordered(
+                "sol", stubWorker("sol", "shared-openai"),
+                "terra", stubWorker("terra", "shared-openai"));
+        StubLauncher adapter = new StubLauncher("claude", herdr, profiles, "sol", Set.of());
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.MINUTES.toNanos(30));
+        quarantine.quarantine("shared-openai");
+        BackendOutagePolicy outagePolicy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-1", "API Error: 500");
+        outagePolicy.record("shared-openai", "term-2", "API Error: 500");
+        CompositePeerLauncher composite = new CompositePeerLauncher(List.of(adapter), "sol", profiles,
+                PlacementPolicies.fixed(), _ -> 0, null, quarantine, outagePolicy);
+
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class,
+                () -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("sol", null, null)));
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("quarantined"),
+                "exhaustion quarantine takes priority in the message: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertFalse(e.getMessage().contains("cooling off"),
+                "cooling off is never mentioned when quarantine already refused the spawn: " + e.getMessage());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aFleetWithNoBackendErrorsEverRecordedBehavesExactlyAsBeforeCoolOffExisted() {
+        // A never-record()-called BackendOutagePolicy is naturally inert — the 2/5/6-arg
+        // constructors used throughout this file all wire this in implicitly (NO_OUTAGE_POLICY).
+        // This test pins that an explicit fresh instance also never refuses a spawn, for any profile.
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        PeerLauncher composite = composite(herdr);
+
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("claude", null, null)));
+        assertDoesNotThrow(() -> composite.spawn(new SpawnRequest("gemini", null, null)));
+    }
 }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/EnvAllowListScrubTest.java

@@ -114,6 +114,68 @@ class EnvAllowListScrubTest {
         assertNull(EnvAllowListScrub.readReport(dir));
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #224 criterion 5 (a gap the #221 reviewer flagged): {@link EnvAllowListScrub#shareWithGroup}
+     * lists one FLAT level of {@code dir} and shares every file it finds there — which does cover the
+     * OPTIONAL files a caller may or may not have written before calling it ({@code member-charter.md},
+     * {@code ide-rules.md} — both written by {@code OpenCodeLauncher#writeConfig}), but nothing
+     * pinned that down.
+     * Without this test, a future change that writes a file AFTER the sharing call, or into a
+     * subdirectory, would pass every existing test while quietly leaving that file unreadable to a
+     * different-uid member.
+     *
+     * <p>This drives {@code shareWithGroup} directly against a directory holding several flat files —
+     * not only {@code opencode.json}, but also the two optional ones named above plus a third,
+     * unrelated file, so the assertion is "every flat file", not "the two files someone thought of".
+     */
+    @Test
+    void shareWithGroupCoversEveryFlatFileIncludingTheOptionalOnes(@TempDir Path dir) throws Exception {
+        String group = currentUserGroup();
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("opencode.json"), "{}\n");
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("member-charter.md"), "# charter\n");
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("ide-rules.md"), "# ide rules\n");
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("another-flat-file.txt"), "unrelated\n");
+
+        EnvAllowListScrub.shareWithGroup(dir, group);
+
+        assertEquals("rwxr-x---", java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFilePermissions.toString(
+                        Files.getPosixFilePermissions(dir)),
+                "the directory itself must be group-traversable+readable, owner-only writable");
+        for (String name : List.of("opencode.json", "member-charter.md", "ide-rules.md", "another-flat-file.txt")) {
+            Path file = dir.resolve(name);
+            assertEquals("rw-r-----", java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFilePermissions.toString(
+                            Files.getPosixFilePermissions(file)),
+                    name + " must be group-readable, never group-writable");
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The current process's REAL primary group — resolved via {@code id -gn}, never by reading a
+     * directory's owning group (fleetd #225: that reads wherever Maven happened to be started from,
+     * not the process's own group, and the two diverge outside a home checkout). Skips (never fails)
+     * when {@code id} is unavailable or its primary group cannot be resolved on this host.
+     */
+    private static String currentUserGroup() {
+        String out;
+        boolean ok;
+        try {
+            Process p = new ProcessBuilder("id", "-gn").redirectErrorStream(true).start();
+            String raw = new String(p.getInputStream().readAllBytes(), StandardCharsets.UTF_8).trim();
+            out = raw;
+            ok = p.waitFor(5, java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit.SECONDS) && p.exitValue() == 0 && !raw.isBlank();
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            out = null;
+            ok = false;
+        } catch (InterruptedException e) {
+            Thread.currentThread().interrupt();
+            out = null;
+            ok = false;
+        }
+        assumeTrue(ok, "cannot resolve this process's real primary group via `id -gn` on this host "
+                + "— skipping a POSIX-group-dependent test rather than failing it");
+        return out;
+    }
+
     /**
      * The same equality, for a shell that is INTERACTIVE but NOT a login shell — the shape herdr
      * opens on Linux.

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest.java

@@ -18,7 +18,6 @@ import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 import java.io.IOException;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
-import java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFileAttributeView;
 import java.util.HashMap;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
@@ -30,6 +29,7 @@ import java.util.function.Supplier;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertNotNull;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertThrows;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assumptions.assumeTrue;
 
@@ -100,18 +100,26 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
     }
 
     /**
-     * A non-zsh shell cannot read {@code ZDOTDIR} at all. The launcher must fall back rather than
-     * generate a directory nothing will ever read — a directory that would look like protection.
+     * fleetd #155: a non-zsh shell cannot read {@code ZDOTDIR} at all, so under {@code
+     * policy: allow-list} — the policy the operator picked specifically for a control a sourced file
+     * cannot undo — the launcher must REFUSE the spawn rather than silently generate a directory
+     * nothing will ever read (protection theatre) or fall back to the weaker overlay (exactly the
+     * "control silently does nothing" defect this ticket exists to close). Real path: through {@link
+     * HerdrPeerLauncher#spawn}, the method the daemon actually calls.
      */
     @Test
-    void aNonZshShellGeneratesNothingAndFallsBack() {
+    void aNonZshShellUnderAllowListPolicyRefusesTheSpawn() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         WiringLauncher launcher = new WiringLauncher(herdr, allowList(), "/bin/bash");
 
-        launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest("test", null, null, null, null, MemberRole.DEV));
+        IllegalArgumentException e = assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class,
+                () -> launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest("test", null, null, null, null, MemberRole.DEV)),
+                "policy=allow-list on a non-zsh shell must refuse the spawn, not silently degrade");
 
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("allow-list") && e.getMessage().contains("/bin/bash"),
+                "the refusal must name the policy and the actual shell, got: " + e.getMessage());
         assertFalse(launcher.env.containsKey("ZDOTDIR"),
-                "bash ignores ZDOTDIR; setting it would be protection theatre");
+                "a refused spawn must not have generated (or wired in) a scrub directory: " + launcher.env);
     }
 
     private static Supplier<FleetConfig.MemberCredentials> allowList() {
@@ -247,11 +255,14 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
      * "allowed N of M" line — which describes what the scrub does — must not be printed there either.
      * Before this fix the line was logged BEFORE the zsh gate, so a non-zsh host printed e.g.
      * "allowed 1 of 3" while blocking nothing at all, telling an operator a control ran when it did
-     * not. Real path: goes through {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#spawn}, same as the sibling test above,
-     * with the shell fixed to bash so the fallback branch is the one exercised.
+     * not. fleetd #155: the spawn itself is now refused on this path (see {@code
+     * aNonZshShellUnderAllowListPolicyRefusesTheSpawn}) rather than falling back — this test's own
+     * concern still holds under the refusal: the "allowed N of M" line describes a scrub that never
+     * ran here, so it must still never appear. Real path: goes through {@link
+     * HerdrPeerLauncher#spawn}, same as the sibling test above, with the shell fixed to bash.
      */
     @Test
-    void noAllowedCountLineIsEmittedOnTheNonZshFallbackPath() {
+    void noAllowedCountLineIsEmittedOnTheNonZshRefusalPath() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         Set<String> hostEnvNames = Set.of(INJECTED, "SOME_UNRELATED_NAME", "ANOTHER_UNRELATED_NAME");
         WiringLauncher launcher = new WiringLauncher(herdr, allowList(), "/bin/bash", () -> hostEnvNames);
@@ -263,7 +274,9 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
         appender.start();
         logger.addAppender(appender);
         try {
-            launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest("test", null, null, null, null, MemberRole.DEV));
+            assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class,
+                    () -> launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest("test", null, null, null, null, MemberRole.DEV)),
+                    "policy=allow-list on a non-zsh shell must refuse the spawn");
         } finally {
             logger.detachAppender(appender);
             logger.setLevel(original);
@@ -311,13 +324,20 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
      * different OS user — {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#hostEnvNames} describes fleetd's own process, not
      * that user's. Neither "inherits them UNBLOCKED" nor "scrub blanks them" is evidence-backed
      * there, so neither may print; the single unknown-environment WARN must, naming the config key.
+     *
+     * <p>fleetd #155: {@code memberLoginShell} is now given explicitly as zsh, so the spawn reaches
+     * this WARN through the (still-degrading, not refusing) missing-{@code worktreeRoot}/{@code
+     * worktreeGroup} fallback rather than through the zsh gate, which now refuses instead of falling
+     * back — see {@code aNonZshShellUnderAllowListPolicyRefusesTheSpawn}. This test's own concern
+     * (the unknown-environment WARN) is orthogonal to which fallback reached {@code
+     * logCredentialGap}, so it still holds.
      */
     @Test
     void gapDetectorReportsUnknownInsteadOfAConclusionWhenMemberHerdrSocketIsConfigured() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         Set<String> hostEnvNames = Set.of("FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", "SOME_UNKNOWN_SECRET_TOKEN");
         WiringLauncher launcher = new WiringLauncher(herdr, allowList(), "/bin/zsh", () -> hostEnvNames,
-                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket("/tmp/other-user-herdr.sock"));
+                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket("/tmp/other-user-herdr.sock", "/bin/zsh"));
 
         List<String> messages = spawnAndCaptureLogs(launcher);
 
@@ -341,8 +361,9 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
     void theUnknownEnvironmentWarnFiresOnceNotOncePerSpawn() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         Set<String> hostEnvNames = Set.of("FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN", "SOME_UNKNOWN_SECRET_TOKEN");
+        // fleetd #155: memberLoginShell given explicitly as zsh — see the sibling test above for why.
         WiringLauncher launcher = new WiringLauncher(herdr, allowList(), "/bin/zsh", () -> hostEnvNames,
-                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket("/tmp/other-user-herdr.sock"));
+                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket("/tmp/other-user-herdr.sock", "/bin/zsh"));
 
         Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(HerdrPeerLauncher.class);
         Level original = logger.getLevel();
@@ -390,42 +411,44 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
     }
 
     /**
-     * fleetd #213 defect 1, acceptance criterion 1: {@code memberHerdrSocket} configured and {@code
-     * memberLoginShell} configured as non-zsh must fall back to the sentinel overlay exactly like a
-     * non-zsh {@code $SHELL} does today — and the "generated ZDOTDIR" INFO must not appear, since no
-     * scrub actually runs. The WiringLauncher's own {@code env("SHELL")} is deliberately set to
-     * {@code /bin/zsh} — the OPPOSITE of what {@code memberLoginShell} says — so a launcher that
-     * (incorrectly) fell back to fleetd's own {@code $SHELL} here would wrongly pass the gate and
-     * fail this test.
+     * fleetd #213 defect 1, acceptance criterion 1 — updated by fleetd #155: {@code
+     * memberHerdrSocket} configured and {@code memberLoginShell} configured as non-zsh must now
+     * REFUSE the spawn (not fall back to the sentinel overlay — see {@code
+     * aNonZshShellUnderAllowListPolicyRefusesTheSpawn}'s javadoc for why). The WiringLauncher's own
+     * {@code env("SHELL")} is deliberately set to {@code /bin/zsh} — the OPPOSITE of what {@code
+     * memberLoginShell} says — so a launcher that (incorrectly) fell back to fleetd's own {@code
+     * $SHELL} here would wrongly pass the gate and fail this test.
      */
     @Test
-    void memberHerdrSocketWithNonZshMemberLoginShellFallsBackToTheOverlay() {
+    void memberHerdrSocketWithNonZshMemberLoginShellRefusesTheSpawn() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         WiringLauncher launcher = new WiringLauncher(herdr, allowListWithKnown(List.of("SOME_TOKEN")),
                 "/bin/zsh", null,
                 () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket("/tmp/other-user-herdr.sock", "/bin/bash"));
 
-        List<String> messages = spawnAndCaptureLogs(launcher);
+        IllegalArgumentException e = assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class,
+                () -> launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest("test", null, null, null, null, MemberRole.DEV)),
+                "a non-zsh configured memberLoginShell under policy=allow-list must refuse the spawn");
 
-        assertEquals("blocked-by-fleetd-cb596-see-gitea-issue-82", launcher.env.get("SOME_TOKEN"),
-                "a non-zsh memberLoginShell must fall back to the CB-596 sentinel overlay, exactly "
-                        + "like a non-zsh $SHELL does when memberHerdrSocket is absent");
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("/bin/bash"),
+                "the refusal must name the configured memberLoginShell, got: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertFalse(launcher.env.containsKey("SOME_TOKEN"),
+                "a refused spawn must not have touched the pane env at all: " + launcher.env);
         assertFalse(launcher.env.containsKey("ZDOTDIR"),
                 "no scrub directory may be generated when the configured member login shell is not zsh");
-        assertFalse(messages.stream().anyMatch(m -> m.contains("generated ZDOTDIR")),
-                "the 'generated ZDOTDIR' INFO must not appear when the scrub never runs — got: " + messages);
     }
 
     /**
-     * fleetd #213 defect 1, acceptance criterion 2: {@code memberHerdrSocket} configured and NO
-     * {@code memberLoginShell} configured must fall back exactly like criterion 1 above — AND
-     * fleetd's own {@code $SHELL} must never even be consulted (not merely "not decisive"). The
-     * fixture's {@code env} function reports {@code /bin/zsh} for {@code SHELL} — a value that would
-     * WRONGLY pass the zsh gate if the fix regressed to reading it — while flagging whether it was
-     * ever asked for at all, so this test fails loudly on either kind of regression.
+     * fleetd #213 defect 1, acceptance criterion 2 — updated by fleetd #155: {@code
+     * memberHerdrSocket} configured and NO {@code memberLoginShell} configured must now REFUSE the
+     * spawn exactly like criterion 1 above — AND fleetd's own {@code $SHELL} must never even be
+     * consulted (not merely "not decisive"). The fixture's {@code env} function reports {@code
+     * /bin/zsh} for {@code SHELL} — a value that would WRONGLY pass the zsh gate if the fix
+     * regressed to reading it — while flagging whether it was ever asked for at all, so this test
+     * fails loudly on either kind of regression.
      */
     @Test
-    void memberHerdrSocketWithNoMemberLoginShellFallsBackAndNeverConsultsFleetdsOwnShell() {
+    void memberHerdrSocketWithNoMemberLoginShellRefusesAndNeverConsultsFleetdsOwnShell() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         AtomicBoolean shellQueried = new AtomicBoolean(false);
         Function<String, String> env = name -> {
@@ -438,15 +461,18 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
         WiringLauncher launcher = new WiringLauncher(herdr, allowListWithKnown(List.of("SOME_TOKEN")), env,
                 () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket("/tmp/other-user-herdr.sock", null));
 
-        List<String> messages = spawnAndCaptureLogs(launcher);
+        assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class,
+                () -> launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest("test", null, null, null, null, MemberRole.DEV)),
+                "no configured memberLoginShell under policy=allow-list must refuse the spawn, same "
+                        + "as an explicit non-zsh one");
 
         assertFalse(shellQueried.get(), "fleetd's own $SHELL must never be consulted once "
                 + "memberHerdrSocket is configured — only memberLoginShell: may decide the gate");
-        assertEquals("blocked-by-fleetd-cb596-see-gitea-issue-82", launcher.env.get("SOME_TOKEN"),
-                "no memberLoginShell configured must fall back to the sentinel overlay, same as a "
+        assertFalse(launcher.env.containsKey("SOME_TOKEN"),
+                "a refused spawn must not have touched the pane env at all, same as a "
                         + "configured non-zsh shell");
-        assertFalse(messages.stream().anyMatch(m -> m.contains("generated ZDOTDIR")),
-                "no scrub may run without a configured memberLoginShell — got: " + messages);
+        assertFalse(launcher.env.containsKey("ZDOTDIR"),
+                "no scrub may run without a configured memberLoginShell");
     }
 
     /**
@@ -513,11 +539,37 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
                         + "java.io.tmpdir, unchanged from before this fix: " + dir);
     }
 
-    /** The current process's own primary group — resolvable on whatever host runs this test. */
-    private static String currentUserGroup() throws IOException {
-        PosixFileAttributeView view = Files.getFileAttributeView(Path.of("."), PosixFileAttributeView.class);
-        assumeTrue(view != null, "this host's filesystem does not support POSIX group ownership");
-        return view.readAttributes().group().getName();
+    /**
+     * The current process's REAL primary group — resolved via {@code id -gn}, never by reading a
+     * directory's owning group (fleetd #225). Those two coincide only by accident: a directory's
+     * group is whichever group happened to own the path Maven was started from — {@code staff} in
+     * a home checkout, {@code wheel} under {@code /private/tmp} on macOS — and the fix-up this test
+     * exercises then fails for real when the operator is not a member of that borrowed group,
+     * exactly the case {@code assumeTrue(view != null, ...)} never covered (it only detects a
+     * filesystem with no POSIX groups at all, not a resolvable-but-wrong one). Skips (never fails)
+     * when {@code id} is unavailable or its primary group cannot be resolved on this host.
+     */
+    private static String currentUserGroup() {
+        String out;
+        boolean ok;
+        try {
+            Process p = new ProcessBuilder("id", "-gn").redirectErrorStream(true).start();
+            try (java.io.BufferedReader r = new java.io.BufferedReader(
+                    new java.io.InputStreamReader(p.getInputStream(), java.nio.charset.StandardCharsets.UTF_8))) {
+                out = r.lines().collect(java.util.stream.Collectors.joining("\n")).trim();
+            }
+            ok = p.waitFor(5, java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit.SECONDS) && p.exitValue() == 0 && !out.isBlank();
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            out = null;
+            ok = false;
+        } catch (InterruptedException e) {
+            Thread.currentThread().interrupt();
+            out = null;
+            ok = false;
+        }
+        assumeTrue(ok, "cannot resolve this process's real primary group via `id -gn` on this host "
+                + "— skipping a POSIX-group-dependent test rather than failing it");
+        return out;
     }
 
     /** Spawn once through the real launcher path, capturing every INFO+ line this class logs. */
@@ -675,7 +727,8 @@ class HerdrPeerLauncherAllowListWiringTest {
     /**
      * fleetd #213: as above, plus {@code worktreeRoot:}/{@code worktreeGroup:} — both required for
      * the ZDOTDIR scrub to run at all once {@code memberHerdrSocket} is configured; either missing
-     * falls back to the sentinel overlay, same as a non-zsh {@code memberLoginShell}.
+     * falls back to the sentinel overlay (fleetd #155 left this branch alone — it is not a shell
+     * problem, so it is not this ticket's refusal).
      */
     private static FleetConfig configWithMemberHerdrSocketRootAndGroup(String memberHerdrSocket,
             String memberLoginShell, String worktreeRoot, String worktreeGroup) {

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/MemberCredentialPolicyViewTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.member;
+
+import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.List;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertFalse;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #111 (CB-608): {@link MemberCredentialPolicyView} is the one place that turns a {@code
+ * memberCredentials:} policy into names-and-counts, so the startup log line and {@code
+ * GET /member-credentials} cannot drift apart. These tests pin: the counts always match the
+ * policy that produced them, an absent/empty policy is represented honestly (never as "nothing
+ * blocked"), and the view carries names only — no value ever flows through it, because it is
+ * built only from {@link FleetConfig.MemberCredentials}, which itself never holds a value.
+ */
+class MemberCredentialPolicyViewTest {
+
+    @Test
+    void nullPolicyIsAbsentNotClean() {
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(null);
+
+        assertFalse(view.present(), "a null policy must be reported as absent");
+        assertEquals(0, view.knownCount());
+        assertEquals(0, view.allowedCount());
+        assertEquals(0, view.blockedCount());
+        assertTrue(view.known().isEmpty());
+        assertTrue(view.allowed().isEmpty());
+        assertTrue(view.blocked().isEmpty());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void emptyKnownListIsAbsentEvenWithAPolicyModeSet() {
+        // A memberCredentials: block can be present in YAML with policy: set but known: empty —
+        // that must still read as "no policy configured", the same as a fully absent block,
+        // because zero known names means the daemon blocks nothing either way.
+        FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds =
+                new FleetConfig.MemberCredentials("deny-by-default", List.of(), List.of());
+
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(creds);
+
+        assertFalse(view.present());
+        assertEquals(0, view.knownCount());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void countsMatchARealPolicyExactly() {
+        FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds = new FleetConfig.MemberCredentials(
+                "deny-by-default",
+                List.of("AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN"),
+                List.of("AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN", "GITEA_ACCESS_TOKEN", "WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN"));
+
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(creds);
+
+        assertTrue(view.present());
+        assertEquals("deny-by-default", view.policy());
+        assertEquals(List.of("AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN", "GITEA_ACCESS_TOKEN", "WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN"), view.known());
+        assertEquals(List.of("AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN"), view.allowed());
+        assertEquals(3, view.knownCount());
+        assertEquals(1, view.allowedCount());
+        // known minus allowed — the two names actually shadowed on a spawn.
+        assertEquals(2, view.blockedCount());
+        assertTrue(view.blocked().containsAll(List.of("GITEA_ACCESS_TOKEN", "WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN")));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void presentPolicyThatBlocksNothingIsStillDistinctFromAbsent() {
+        // known == allow => blockedCount is 0, exactly like an absent policy's blockedCount — the
+        // two must still be told apart by `present`, or a reader cannot tell "policy configured,
+        // nothing currently blocked" from "no policy at all".
+        FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds = new FleetConfig.MemberCredentials(
+                "deny-by-default", List.of("X"), List.of("X"));
+
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(creds);
+
+        assertTrue(view.present());
+        assertEquals(1, view.knownCount());
+        assertEquals(0, view.blockedCount());
+        assertFalse(MemberCredentialPolicyView.absent().present());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void namesPassThroughUnchangedNeverAValue() {
+        // The view is built only from FleetConfig.MemberCredentials, which itself carries names,
+        // never values (see its javadoc) — so there is no code path here that could substitute a
+        // secret's value for its name. This pins the identity: what goes into `known`/`allow` is
+        // exactly what comes out, character for character.
+        List<String> known = List.of("SOME_TOKEN_NAME", "ANOTHER_NAME");
+        FleetConfig.MemberCredentials creds =
+                new FleetConfig.MemberCredentials("deny-by-default", List.of(), known);
+
+        MemberCredentialPolicyView view = MemberCredentialPolicyView.of(creds);
+
+        assertEquals(known, view.known());
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/OpenCodeLauncherTest.java

@@ -1,30 +1,45 @@
 package dev.ltms.fleet.member;
 
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.Level;
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger;
+import ch.qos.logback.classic.spi.ILoggingEvent;
+import ch.qos.logback.core.read.ListAppender;
 import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
 import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.FakeHerdr;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.WorkspaceControl;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.inject.ExhaustionSink;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.Capability;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.CharterReceipt;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.MemberRole;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerHandle;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.PeerUnreachableException;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.peer.SpawnRequest;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.placement.BackendQuarantine;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.MemberSession;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.session.SessionManager;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
+import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 
+import java.io.IOException;
 import java.nio.file.Files;
 import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFilePermissions;
+import java.util.ArrayList;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.Optional;
 import java.util.concurrent.ExecutorService;
 import java.util.concurrent.Executors;
 import java.util.concurrent.Future;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
 import java.util.function.Supplier;
 
 import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.*;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assumptions.assumeTrue;
 
 /**
  * The opencode adapter's launch build: a file-based MCP mount + reply-charter instructions (no
@@ -39,6 +54,19 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
                 null, null, gitTokenEnv, null, FleetConfig.Profile.KIND_OPENCODE);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * A profile carrying an explicit {@code credentialId} (fleetd #234 defect 2) — distinct from
+     * the profile's own name, so a test can assert on the credential precisely rather than relying
+     * on {@code effectiveCredentialId()}'s profile-name fallback.
+     */
+    private static FleetConfig.Profile opencodeCfgWithCredential(String profileName, String model,
+                                                                   String credentialId) {
+        return new FleetConfig.Profile(profileName, null, model, null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN",
+                List.of("opencode"), "tab", "fleetd-workers", "opencode: {model} #{n}", null,
+                null, List.of(), null, null, FleetConfig.Profile.KIND_OPENCODE, Map.of(), 1.0f,
+                null, false, null, credentialId, null);
+    }
+
     /** Gate-disabled launcher whose per-spawn config dirs land under an inspectable temp root. */
     private static OpenCodeLauncher service(FakeHerdr herdr, Path configRoot, FleetConfig.Profile cfg) {
         return new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr), new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
@@ -295,11 +323,39 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
 
     // --- CB-547: resume + post-hoc session discovery --------------------------------------------
 
+    /**
+     * Give {@code dir} the exact signature {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#isProvisionedWorktree} checks
+     * for: a {@code .git} REGULAR FILE, never a directory. Content is never parsed by that gate, so
+     * any {@code gitdir:} pointer is fine. Mirrors {@code ClaudeCodeLauncherTest}'s helper of the
+     * same shape (fleetd #249).
+     */
+    private static void markAsProvisionedWorktree(Path dir) throws IOException {
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve(".git"), "gitdir: /tmp/not-a-real-gitdir");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * A fresh subdirectory of {@code configRoot}, marked as a provisioned worktree (fleetd #249),
+     * for tests that predate this gate and stood in a bare {@code "/work/dir"} string as their
+     * member's cwd — a directory that never existed on disk and, post-#249, would never pass
+     * {@link HerdrPeerLauncher#isProvisionedWorktree} either. Those tests are about the model
+     * mismatch / late-resolve machinery (fleetd #175/#234/#209), not about the worktree gate
+     * itself, so they need a cwd the gate accepts without changing what each test demonstrates.
+     */
+    private static String provisionedWorkDir(Path configRoot) throws IOException {
+        Path dir = Files.createDirectories(configRoot.resolve("work-dir"));
+        markAsProvisionedWorktree(dir);
+        return dir.toString();
+    }
+
     @Test
-    void aResumeSpawnPassesTheSessionIdAsDashS(@TempDir Path root) {
+    void aResumeSpawnIntoAProvisionedWorktreePassesTheSessionIdAsDashS(@TempDir Path root,
+                                                                        @TempDir Path worktree)
+            throws Exception {
+        markAsProvisionedWorktree(worktree);
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         service(herdr, root, opencodeCfg("google/gemini-2.5-pro", null, null))
-                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null, null, "ses_41b79fc90ffeI9E8uZv6VprUn2"));
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, worktree.toString(), null, null,
+                        "ses_41b79fc90ffeI9E8uZv6VprUn2"));
 
         List<String> args = startArgs(herdr);
         int s = args.indexOf("-s");
@@ -308,6 +364,27 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
                 "the resume target id follows -s");
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #249 acceptance criterion 3: without a fleetd-provisioned worktree, the member's cwd
+     * is shared with other sessions, so fleetd can never reliably confirm (now or later via {@link
+     * OpenCodeSessionDiscovery}) which conversation it is actually running. Refuse the spawn itself
+     * rather than silently launching opencode's {@code -s <id>} into unverifiable territory.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aResumeSpawnWithoutAProvisionedWorktreeIsRefused(@TempDir Path root) {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = service(herdr, root,
+                opencodeCfg("google/gemini-2.5-pro", null, null));
+
+        IllegalArgumentException e = assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class, () ->
+                launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null, null,
+                        "ses_41b79fc90ffeI9E8uZv6VprUn2")));
+
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("worktree"), e.getMessage());
+        assertFalse(herdr.called("agent.start"),
+                "the refusal must happen before anything spawns — no pane, no process");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void aFreshSpawnCarriesNoSessionFlag(@TempDir Path root) {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -320,25 +397,59 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
 
     @Test
     void theHandleDiscoversTheSessionIdForTheWorkersCwdOnlyAfterItAppears(@TempDir Path root,
-                                                                          @TempDir Path discRoot)
+                                                                          @TempDir Path discRoot,
+                                                                          @TempDir Path worktree)
             throws Exception {
+        markAsProvisionedWorktree(worktree);
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         OpenCodeLauncher launcher = new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr),
                 new WorkspaceControl(herdr), Map.of("gemini", opencodeCfg(null, null, null)),
                 "gemini", _ -> null, 0, System::currentTimeMillis, () -> { }, root, discRoot);
 
-        PeerHandle handle = launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, "/work/dir", null));
+        PeerHandle handle = launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, worktree.toString(), null));
 
         // opencode writes the record only when the session is first persisted — the instant the
         // pane is ready it does not exist, so agentSessionId() is null (never a spawn failure).
         assertNull(handle.agentSessionId(), "no record yet → null, not a spawn-time block");
         // Once the record appears (here: same cwd), lazy discovery resolves it — the handle's
         // session id matches its own worktree, not another's.
-        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_resolved", "/work/dir", 1000L);
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_resolved", worktree.toString(), 1000L);
         assertEquals("ses_resolved", handle.agentSessionId(),
                 "agentSessionId() re-scans and picks up a record that has since been written");
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #249 acceptance criterion 1, exercised through the real caller path (the handle
+     * {@code fleet_list} actually reads), not {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery} directly. Without a
+     * fleetd-provisioned worktree the member's cwd is shared — the default no-worktree spawn
+     * inherits the lead's own long-lived cwd — so even once a matching row appears (here:
+     * simulating another profile's session that happens to share the directory) the handle must
+     * report absence rather than guess. Measured real-world case (2026-09-03): the row it would
+     * otherwise pick was three days old and belonged to a different profile.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void theHandleNeverReportsAnIdForANonProvisionedCwdEvenAfterARowAppears(@TempDir Path root,
+                                                                             @TempDir Path discRoot)
+            throws Exception {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr),
+                new WorkspaceControl(herdr), Map.of("gemini", opencodeCfg(null, null, null)),
+                "gemini", _ -> null, 0, System::currentTimeMillis, () -> { }, root, discRoot);
+        // No markAsProvisionedWorktree — this cwd has no .git file, the shared-cwd shape a
+        // no-worktree spawn (or a real checkout) actually has.
+        String sharedCwd = root.resolve("shared-cwd").toString();
+
+        PeerHandle handle = launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, sharedCwd, null));
+
+        assertNull(handle.agentSessionId(), "no record yet → null, same as the provisioned case");
+        // A row for this exact directory now appears — e.g. a sibling member, or a stale session
+        // from days earlier, sharing the same unprovisioned cwd.
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_someone_elses", sharedCwd, 1000L);
+        assertNull(handle.agentSessionId(),
+                "a non-provisioned cwd must NEVER report an id, even once a row for it exists — "
+                        + "the row could belong to any other session sharing this directory");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void foreignWorkerMatchesOpencodePrefixButNotClaude() {
         String nonce = "abc123";
@@ -383,6 +494,46 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
         assertNotNull(ex.getMessage());
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #176 fix 2's per-adapter guard: {@code StatusRefiner.classify} is written for the
+     * Claude Code TUI only, and the spawn-readiness gate must never run it against an opencode
+     * pane. {@code agentType("opencode")} deliberately satisfies the OTHER guard (the corroborating
+     * liveness check) so it cannot be what makes this test pass — only the {@code namePrefix}
+     * check can be. If that check were ever removed, this pane's {@code ❯} content would refine
+     * straight to IDLE and the gate would report ready before the backend actually was.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void opencodePaneIsNeverRefinedEvenWhenItsContentLooksLikeAnIdleClaudePrompt(@TempDir Path root) {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        herdr.agentStatus("unknown"); // always UNKNOWN
+        herdr.agentType("opencode");  // non-null — satisfies the liveness guard on its own
+        herdr.readText("some-host:~ user$ ❯ "); // content StatusRefiner.classify reads as IDLE
+        long[] clock = {0};
+        OpenCodeLauncher svc = new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr), new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
+                Map.of("gemini", opencodeCfg(null, null, null)), "gemini", _ -> null,
+                1000, () -> clock[0], () -> clock[0] += 50, root, root);
+
+        assertThrows(PeerUnreachableException.class,
+                () -> svc.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null)));
+
+        assertTrue(clock[0] >= 1000,
+                "an opencode pane must never refine to injectable, however its content reads — "
+                        + "the gate has to wait out the full timeout: clock only reached " + clock[0]);
+        // A blanket "agent.read is never called" does not hold here: the timeout path itself reads
+        // the pane tail (source=recent) for its own log message, on every timeout, regardless of
+        // adapter — see HerdrPeerLauncher.readPaneQuietly. So assert on the refiner's OWN probe
+        // source (StatusRefiner.PROBE_SOURCE = "detection") instead — that call happens only inside
+        // StatusRefiner.refine, so its absence proves the refiner itself was never reached for this
+        // opencode pane, not merely that its answer was discarded.
+        long detectionReads = herdr.calls.stream()
+                .filter(c -> c.method().equals("agent.read"))
+                .filter(c -> "detection".equals(((Map<?, ?>) c.params()).get("source")))
+                .count();
+        assertEquals(0, detectionReads,
+                "the refiner's own pane probe (source=detection) must never run against an "
+                        + "opencode pane — the namePrefix guard has to stop it before that call");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void spawnReturnsHandleWhenGateDisabled(@TempDir Path root) {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -610,4 +761,683 @@ class OpenCodeLauncherTest {
         assertTrue(json.path("mcp").path("intellij").isMissingNode(),
                 "no IDE server when ideMcpUrl is unset");
     }
+
+    // --- fleetd #219: config root + discovery root under memberHerdrSocket ------------------------
+
+    /** A config with {@code memberHerdrSocket:} set, and optionally {@code worktreeRoot:}/{@code worktreeGroup:}. */
+    private static FleetConfig configWithMemberHerdrSocket(String worktreeRoot, String worktreeGroup) {
+        return new FleetConfig(
+                null,                    // bind
+                null,                    // herdrSocket
+                "/tmp/other-user.sock",  // memberHerdrSocket
+                Map.of(),                // profiles
+                null,                    // guard
+                worktreeRoot,            // worktreeRoot
+                null,                    // lifecycle
+                null,                    // spawnReadyTimeoutMs
+                null,                    // spawnReadyPollMs
+                null,                    // broker
+                null,                    // primary
+                null,                    // fleet
+                null,                    // leadHeartbeat
+                null,                    // health
+                null,                    // placement
+                null,                    // auth
+                null,                    // configReload
+                null,                    // quarantineCooldownSeconds
+                null,                    // memberCredentials
+                null,                    // coordinator
+                worktreeGroup,           // worktreeGroup
+                null                     // memberLoginShell
+        ).withDefaults();
+    }
+
+    private static OpenCodeLauncher serviceWithConfig(FakeHerdr herdr, Path configRoot, Path discoveryRoot,
+                                                        FleetConfig.Profile cfg, Supplier<FleetConfig> config) {
+        return new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr), new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
+                Map.of(cfg.profile(), cfg), cfg.profile(), _ -> null,
+                0, System::currentTimeMillis, () -> { }, configRoot, discoveryRoot, null, null, config);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The current process's REAL primary group — resolved via {@code id -gn}, never by reading a
+     * directory's owning group (fleetd #225). Those two coincide only by accident: a directory's
+     * group is whichever group happened to own the path Maven was started from — {@code staff} in
+     * a home checkout, {@code wheel} under {@code /private/tmp} on macOS — and the fix-up this test
+     * exercises then fails for real when the operator is not a member of that borrowed group,
+     * exactly the case {@code assumeTrue(view != null, ...)} never covered (it only detects a
+     * filesystem with no POSIX groups at all, not a resolvable-but-wrong one). Skips (never fails)
+     * when {@code id} is unavailable or its primary group cannot be resolved on this host.
+     */
+    private static String currentUserGroup() {
+        String out;
+        boolean ok;
+        try {
+            Process p = new ProcessBuilder("id", "-gn").redirectErrorStream(true).start();
+            try (java.io.BufferedReader r = new java.io.BufferedReader(
+                    new java.io.InputStreamReader(p.getInputStream(), java.nio.charset.StandardCharsets.UTF_8))) {
+                out = r.lines().collect(java.util.stream.Collectors.joining("\n")).trim();
+            }
+            ok = p.waitFor(5, java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit.SECONDS) && p.exitValue() == 0 && !out.isBlank();
+        } catch (IOException e) {
+            out = null;
+            ok = false;
+        } catch (InterruptedException e) {
+            Thread.currentThread().interrupt();
+            out = null;
+            ok = false;
+        }
+        assumeTrue(ok, "cannot resolve this process's real primary group via `id -gn` on this host "
+                + "— skipping a POSIX-group-dependent test rather than failing it");
+        return out;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #219 site 1, acceptance criterion 1: with {@code memberHerdrSocket} configured and both
+     * {@code worktreeRoot}/{@code worktreeGroup} set, the generated {@code opencode.json} directory
+     * lives under {@code worktreeRoot} — NEVER under the injected {@code configRoot} (standing in for
+     * {@code java.io.tmpdir}, fleetd's own 0700 temp dir, unreadable by the member's different OS
+     * user) — and is shared read-only with the group via the SAME mechanism (fleetd #213's {@link
+     * EnvAllowListScrub#shareWithGroup}) the ZDOTDIR scrub uses.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void memberHerdrSocketWithWorktreeRootAndGroupPutsConfigDirUnderWorktreeRootAndSharesIt(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path worktreeRoot) throws Exception {
+        String group = currentUserGroup();
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        serviceWithConfig(herdr, configRoot, configRoot,
+                opencodeCfg("google/gemini-2.5-pro", "http://127.0.0.1:8765/mcp", null),
+                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket(worktreeRoot.toString(), group)).spawn();
+
+        String cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        assertNotNull(cfgPath, "the profile still needs a config file");
+        Path cfgFile = Path.of(cfgPath);
+        Path dir = cfgFile.getParent();
+        assertEquals(worktreeRoot.toAbsolutePath().normalize(), dir.getParent(),
+                "the generated directory's parent must be worktreeRoot, not the injected configRoot "
+                        + "standing in for java.io.tmpdir — got parent " + dir.getParent());
+        assertFalse(dir.startsWith(configRoot),
+                "the generated directory must NOT be created under configRoot when memberHerdrSocket "
+                        + "is configured: " + dir);
+
+        assertEquals("rwxr-x---", PosixFilePermissions.toString(Files.getPosixFilePermissions(dir)),
+                "the directory must be group-traversable+readable, owner-only writable");
+        assertEquals("rw-r-----", PosixFilePermissions.toString(Files.getPosixFilePermissions(cfgFile)),
+                "opencode.json must be group-readable, never group-writable");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #219 site 1, acceptance criterion 2: with {@code memberHerdrSocket} configured but
+     * NEITHER {@code worktreeRoot} nor {@code worktreeGroup} set, the launcher must refuse the spawn
+     * rather than write a config under {@code java.io.tmpdir} the member cannot read — that member
+     * would occupy a pane and never become deliverable, with nothing pointing at the real cause.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void memberHerdrSocketWithoutWorktreeRootOrGroupRefusesTheSpawn(@TempDir Path configRoot) {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = serviceWithConfig(herdr, configRoot, configRoot,
+                opencodeCfg("google/gemini-2.5-pro", "http://127.0.0.1:8765/mcp", null),
+                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket(null, null));
+
+        IllegalStateException ex = assertThrows(IllegalStateException.class,
+                () -> launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null)),
+                "a missing worktreeRoot/worktreeGroup must refuse the spawn, not write an unreadable config");
+        assertTrue(ex.getMessage().contains("worktreeRoot"),
+                "the refusal must name the missing config key — got: " + ex.getMessage());
+        assertFalse(herdr.called("tab.create"),
+                "the spawn must be refused BEFORE any pane is created — got calls: " + herdr.calls);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #219 site 1, acceptance criterion 2 (the other missing half): {@code worktreeRoot} set
+     * but {@code worktreeGroup} missing must ALSO refuse — either one alone is not enough to
+     * guarantee the member's OS user can read the directory.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void memberHerdrSocketWithWorktreeRootButNoGroupRefusesTheSpawn(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path worktreeRoot) {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = serviceWithConfig(herdr, configRoot, configRoot,
+                opencodeCfg("google/gemini-2.5-pro", "http://127.0.0.1:8765/mcp", null),
+                () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket(worktreeRoot.toString(), null));
+
+        IllegalStateException ex = assertThrows(IllegalStateException.class,
+                () -> launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, null, null)));
+        assertTrue(ex.getMessage().contains("worktreeGroup"),
+                "worktreeRoot alone is not enough — got: " + ex.getMessage());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #219 site 1, acceptance criterion 3: with {@code memberHerdrSocket} ABSENT — even when
+     * a live, non-null {@code config} supplier is threaded through (not merely {@code config == null},
+     * which every other test in this file already exercises) — the generated directory must still
+     * land directly under the injected {@code configRoot}, byte-identical to before this fix.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void memberHerdrSocketAbsentStaysUnderConfigRootEvenWithALiveConfigSupplier(@TempDir Path configRoot)
+            throws Exception {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig config = new FleetConfig(null, null, null, Map.of(), null, null, null, null, null,
+                null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null).withDefaults();
+        serviceWithConfig(herdr, configRoot, configRoot,
+                opencodeCfg("google/gemini-2.5-pro", "http://127.0.0.1:8765/mcp", null), () -> config)
+                .spawn();
+
+        String cfgPath = startEnv(herdr).get("OPENCODE_CONFIG");
+        assertNotNull(cfgPath);
+        assertTrue(Path.of(cfgPath).startsWith(configRoot),
+                "with memberHerdrSocket absent, the config directory must still be created directly "
+                        + "under configRoot, unchanged from before this fix");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #219 site 2: under {@code memberHerdrSocket}, opencode session discovery must be
+     * declared unavailable rather than silently scanning fleetd's own {@code discoveryRoot} — which,
+     * under this config key, is NOT where the member's opencode actually writes its session
+     * database. This test proves the gate is real, not merely "no record yet": a matching record IS
+     * written to {@code discoveryRoot} (the exact fixture {@link
+     * #theHandleDiscoversTheSessionIdForTheWorkersCwdOnlyAfterItAppears} proves discovery would
+     * otherwise find), and {@code agentSessionId()} must still return {@code null} — proving the
+     * gate, not a coincidental absence of data, is what produced the null. One WARN is also logged,
+     * exactly once even across repeated calls.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void discoveryIsUnavailableUnderMemberHerdrSocketEvenWhenARecordExists(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path worktreeRoot, @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String group = currentUserGroup();
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_should_be_hidden", "/work/dir", 1000L);
+
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr),
+                new WorkspaceControl(herdr), Map.of("gemini", opencodeCfg(null, null, null)),
+                "gemini", _ -> null, 0, System::currentTimeMillis, () -> { }, configRoot, discRoot,
+                null, null, () -> configWithMemberHerdrSocket(worktreeRoot.toString(), group));
+
+        Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(OpenCodeLauncher.class);
+        Level original = logger.getLevel();
+        logger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.start();
+        logger.addAppender(appender);
+        PeerHandle handle;
+        try {
+            handle = launcher.spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, "/work/dir", null));
+            assertNull(handle.agentSessionId(),
+                    "memberHerdrSocket configured: discovery must stay unavailable even though a "
+                            + "matching record exists in discoveryRoot");
+            assertNull(handle.agentSessionId(), "the gate must hold on a second call too");
+        } finally {
+            logger.detachAppender(appender);
+            logger.setLevel(original);
+        }
+        List<String> warnings = appender.list.stream()
+                .filter(e -> e.getLevel() == Level.WARN)
+                .map(ILoggingEvent::getFormattedMessage)
+                .toList();
+        assertEquals(1, warnings.size(),
+                "exactly one WARN across two agentSessionId() calls — got: " + warnings);
+        assertTrue(warnings.get(0).contains("memberHerdrSocket"),
+                "the WARN must name memberHerdrSocket as the reason — got: " + warnings.get(0));
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd #175: opencode silently substitutes a model on an unknown -m flag ----------------
+
+    private static OpenCodeLauncher serviceWithSink(FakeHerdr herdr, Path configRoot, Path discoveryRoot,
+                                                      FleetConfig.Profile cfg, ExhaustionSink sink) {
+        return new OpenCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr), new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
+                Map.of(cfg.profile(), cfg), cfg.profile(), _ -> null,
+                0, System::currentTimeMillis, () -> { }, configRoot, discoveryRoot,
+                null, null, null, sink);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #175 acceptance criterion 1: the check must fire on the REAL late-resolve path —
+     * {@code SessionManager}'s {@code get}/{@code roster} re-polling a retained {@link PeerHandle}
+     * (fleetd #209) — not on a handle built and queried directly. A handle whose row does not exist
+     * yet, then does, proves the check runs exactly where production runs it: PR #203 shipped a
+     * check that ran inside {@code spawn()}, before opencode had written the row, and every test
+     * passed anyway because none of them drove it through this path. This test would have caught
+     * that: {@code sessions.get(...)} before the row exists must show no mismatch, and the SAME
+     * call, re-driven after the row appears, must be what fires the sink.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void theRealSessionManagerLateResolvePathCatchesAModelMismatch(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                                     @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        // xf's real shape (fleetd #175): weight:80, model "opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free", no
+        // credentialId — the profile that actually escaped the fleet's accounting.
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free", null, null);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(target + "|" + reason);
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = serviceWithSink(herdr, configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink);
+
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(launcher);
+        MemberSession acquired = sessions.acquire(cfg.profile(), workDir, null, null);
+
+        // Real late-resolve path, driven BEFORE opencode has written its session row — same shape
+        // as production the instant a pane goes ready.
+        Optional<MemberSession> beforeRow = sessions.get(acquired.paneId());
+        assertTrue(beforeRow.isPresent());
+        assertNull(beforeRow.get().agentSessionId(), "no opencode row yet");
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "no row yet → nothing to compare, the sink must stay silent");
+
+        // opencode writes its row late, running gpt-5.6-sol (a PAID credential) instead of the
+        // withdrawn free model the profile actually asked for — the exact fleetd #175 scenario.
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        // Drive the SAME real late-resolve path again: sessions.get() -> resolveAgentSessionId ->
+        // the retained PeerHandle's agentSessionId() -> discovery -> checkModelMatch, all in one
+        // call, unmodified SessionManager code from fleetd #209.
+        Optional<MemberSession> afterRow = sessions.get(acquired.paneId());
+        assertEquals("ses_x", afterRow.get().agentSessionId(),
+                "the id itself still resolves correctly alongside the model check");
+
+        assertEquals(1, exhausted.size(), "the mismatch must fire exactly once through the real path");
+        assertTrue(exhausted.get(0).contains(cfg.model()), "reports the requested model: " + exhausted.get(0));
+        assertTrue(exhausted.get(0).contains("gpt-5.6-sol"), "reports the actual model: " + exhausted.get(0));
+    }
+
+    /** THE TRAP, row 1: a provider-prefixed request matching the DB's id AND provider is a match. */
+    @Test
+    void aProviderPrefixedModelMatchingBothIdAndProviderIsNotAMismatch(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                                        @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("openai/gpt-5.6-terra", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-terra\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "id and provider both match → never a mismatch: " + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    /** THE TRAP, row 2: same shape as row 1 with a different provider/id pair (the gx profile). */
+    @Test
+    void aGxProviderPrefixedModelMatchingBothIdAndProviderIsNotAMismatch(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                                          @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("gx/deepseek-v4-flash", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"deepseek-v4-flash\",\"providerID\":\"gx\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "id and provider both match → never a mismatch: " + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Incomplete evidence, not THE TRAP's provider mismatch: opencode's {@code model} JSON had an
+     * {@code id} but no {@code providerID} at all (a real shape {@code parseModel} accepts — see
+     * {@code OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest}). The id matches; the provider dimension is simply
+     * unknown, not contradicted. A provider-prefixed profile must NOT be quarantined on this —
+     * that would quarantine on incomplete evidence, which acceptance rule 4 forbids.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aMissingProviderIdInTheEvidenceIsUnknownNotAMismatchWhenTheIdMatches(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("openai/gpt-5.6-terra", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-terra\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(),
+                "id matches and provider is simply unknown (absent), never a mismatch: " + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The other half of the same fix: a missing {@code providerID} must NOT blind the check to a
+     * genuine id mismatch. This is what proves the fix narrows the comparison rather than switching
+     * the whole check off whenever {@code providerID} happens to be absent.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aMissingProviderIdInTheEvidenceStillCatchesARealIdMismatch(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("openai/gpt-5.6-terra", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertEquals(1, exhausted.size(),
+                "the id genuinely differs, so this must still quarantine even with providerID absent: "
+                        + exhausted);
+        assertTrue(exhausted.get(0).contains("gpt-5.6-sol") && exhausted.get(0).contains(cfg.model()),
+                "reports both the requested and actual model: " + exhausted.get(0));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * THE TRAP, row 3: a profile that names no provider prefix (bare {@code "deepseek-v4-flash"})
+     * must match on id alone — the profile never asked for a specific provider, so opencode
+     * resolving it to {@code gx} is not evidence of anything wrong.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aBareModelWithNoProviderPrefixMatchesOnIdAloneAndIsNotAMismatch(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                                          @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("deepseek-v4-flash", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"deepseek-v4-flash\",\"providerID\":\"gx\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(),
+                "no provider was requested, so opencode's own provider resolution is not a mismatch: "
+                        + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * THE TRAP, row 4 (not a row in the table, the reason the table exists): a mismatched id, with
+     * the profile's requested and the actual model both named in the ERROR and the sink's reason —
+     * the exact fleetd #175 scenario (a withdrawn model silently falls back to a paid one).
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aRealIdMismatchLogsAnErrorNamingBothModelsAndQuarantinesThroughTheSink(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(target + "|" + reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free", null, null);
+
+        Logger logger = (Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(OpenCodeLauncher.class);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.start();
+        logger.addAppender(appender);
+        PeerHandle handle;
+        try {
+            handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                    .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+            OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                    "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+            assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        } finally {
+            logger.detachAppender(appender);
+        }
+
+        assertEquals(1, exhausted.size(), "a real id mismatch must reach the sink exactly once");
+        assertTrue(exhausted.get(0).contains("opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free"),
+                "the sink reason must name the requested model: " + exhausted.get(0));
+        assertTrue(exhausted.get(0).contains("gpt-5.6-sol"),
+                "the sink reason must name the actual model: " + exhausted.get(0));
+
+        List<ILoggingEvent> errors = appender.list.stream()
+                .filter(e -> e.getLevel() == Level.ERROR)
+                .toList();
+        assertEquals(1, errors.size(), "exactly one ERROR for the mismatch: " + appender.list);
+        String message = errors.get(0).getFormattedMessage();
+        assertTrue(message.contains("opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free") && message.contains("gpt-5.6-sol")
+                        && message.contains(cfg.profile()),
+                "the ERROR must name the requested model, the actual model, AND the profile: " + message);
+
+        // The check runs at most once per handle even if agentSessionId() is polled again.
+        handle.agentSessionId();
+        assertEquals(1, exhausted.size(), "no duplicate quarantine on a repeated call");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #175's central safety rule: absent, empty, or unparseable model evidence is UNKNOWN,
+     * never a mismatch — it must never quarantine a working profile. Covers every "no real
+     * evidence yet" shape: no row at all, a row with a null model, and a row with unparseable JSON.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void unknownOrUnparseableModelEvidenceNeverQuarantines(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                             @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("openai/gpt-5.6-terra", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+
+        // No row yet at all.
+        assertNull(handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "no row yet is UNKNOWN, not a mismatch: " + exhausted);
+
+        // A row exists (for a DIFFERENT directory) so a poll on ours still finds nothing.
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_other", "/work/other", 500L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+        assertNull(handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "a row for a different directory is UNKNOWN, not a mismatch: "
+                + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * A profile with no {@code model:} configured has nothing to compare against — the check must
+     * stay silent no matter what opencode actually ran, since there is no requested value to be
+     * wrong about.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aProfileWithNoConfiguredModelIsNeverCheckedForAMismatch(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                                  @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg(null, null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"anything-at-all\",\"providerID\":\"anyone\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", handle.agentSessionId());
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "no model configured → nothing to compare: " + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd #234 defect 1: key the model check on the RESOLVED id, not the shared directory --
+
+    /**
+     * The exact shape fleetd #234 reported: {@code fleet_spawn} with no {@code worktree:} shares
+     * the lead's cwd across every worker, so more than one session row can exist for the SAME
+     * {@code directory}. Once THIS handle's own session id is resolved, a sibling member spawned
+     * later into the same shared directory — writing a NEWER, unrelated row — must never make the
+     * already-resolved session look mismatched. Today's code re-derives "the newest row in this
+     * directory" on every call (both for the id AND, independently, for the model), so it would
+     * pick up the sibling's row on the second call and flag a false mismatch AND flip the returned
+     * id. The fix (fleetd #234) makes the id sticky once resolved and reads the model back for
+     * exactly that id (see {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#actualModelForSessionId}) — never
+     * "whatever is newest in the directory right now."
+     */
+    @Test
+    void modelCheckReadsTheResolvedSessionsOwnRowNotWhateverIsNewestInTheSharedDirectory(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        List<String> exhausted = new ArrayList<>();
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profile) -> exhausted.add(reason);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfg("openai/gpt-5.6-terra", null, null);
+        PeerHandle handle = serviceWithSink(new FakeHerdr(), configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink)
+                .spawn(new SpawnRequest(null, workDir, null));
+
+        // Our own session's row, correctly matching the profile's requested model.
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_ours", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-terra\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+        assertEquals("ses_ours", handle.agentSessionId(), "resolves to our own session");
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(), "matching model → no mismatch on first resolve: " + exhausted);
+
+        // A sibling member, spawned later into the SAME shared directory (no worktree, fleetd
+        // #234's default), writes a newer row running a totally different model.
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_sibling", workDir, 9000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"deepseek-v4-flash\",\"providerID\":\"gx\"}");
+
+        assertEquals("ses_ours", handle.agentSessionId(),
+                "the session id, once resolved, must not flip to a sibling sharing the directory");
+        assertTrue(exhausted.isEmpty(),
+                "a sibling's later, unrelated row in the same shared directory must never be read "
+                        + "as OUR session's model: " + exhausted);
+    }
+
+    // --- fleetd #234 defect 2: the quarantine the ERROR announces must actually happen -----------
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #234: {@link OpenCodeLauncher.SessionAwareHandle#checkModelMatch} fires from {@code
+     * agentSessionId()}, which {@code SessionManager.acquire()} calls to build the very first
+     * {@code MemberSession} record — BEFORE that session is put into the registry {@code
+     * sessions.roster()} reads. A sink that resolves {@code target -> profile} ONLY through the
+     * roster (today's {@code Fleetd.java} code, before this fix) therefore finds nothing at this
+     * exact moment and silently does not quarantine, even though it just logged an ERROR saying it
+     * would. This test drives the REAL path — {@code SessionManager.acquire()} — not the sink
+     * directly, because the bug is entirely about this ordering; a direct-sink test cannot see it
+     * (and is exactly why #175's own test suite, which only ever called the sink directly or after
+     * registration, never caught this).
+     *
+     * <p>The sink under test mirrors {@code Fleetd.main()}'s real wiring after the fix: resolve
+     * via the roster first (unchanged for {@code CompletionResolver}'s two call sites), falling
+     * back to the profile hint {@link OpenCodeLauncher} now supplies via {@link
+     * ExhaustionSink#onExhausted(String, String, String)} when the roster lookup misses.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aSpawnTimeModelMismatchActuallyQuarantinesTheCredentialThroughTheRealAcquirePath(
+            @TempDir Path configRoot, @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfgWithCredential(
+                "terra", "opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free", "openai-shared");
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(cfg.profile(), cfg);
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+
+        // fleetd #234, round 4: safely a lambda now — the 3-arg overload is the interface's single
+        // abstract method, so there is no 2-arg overload left to bind to instead.
+        ExhaustionSink sink = (target, reason, profileHint) -> {
+            FleetConfig.Profile profile = profileHint == null ? null : profiles.get(profileHint);
+            if (profile != null) {
+                quarantine.quarantine(profile.effectiveCredentialId());
+            }
+        };
+
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = serviceWithSink(herdr, configRoot, discRoot, cfg, sink);
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(launcher);
+
+        // The mismatching row exists BEFORE the spawn — reproducing fleetd #234's exact timing:
+        // opencode's session table already carries evidence by the moment acquire() first asks.
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        assertFalse(quarantine.isQuarantined("openai-shared"), "nothing quarantined before the spawn");
+
+        // The real production entrypoint: acquire() builds the MemberSession by calling
+        // handle.agentSessionId() BEFORE registry.put() runs.
+        MemberSession acquired = sessions.acquire(cfg.profile(), workDir, null, null);
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", acquired.agentSessionId(), "the id itself still resolves correctly");
+        assertTrue(quarantine.isQuarantined("openai-shared"),
+                "the mismatch fires DURING acquire(), before roster registration, and must still "
+                        + "reach the quarantine via the profile hint — not silently no-op");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The other half of the same proof: a sink that resolves {@code target -> profile} ONLY
+     * through the roster (i.e. ignores the profile hint entirely, ~today's pre-fix {@code
+     * Fleetd.java}) drops the SAME spawn-time mismatch silently — the credential is never
+     * quarantined even though {@link OpenCodeLauncher} logged the mismatch ERROR. This is the
+     * failure fleetd #234 reported, reproduced through the real {@code SessionManager.acquire()}
+     * path rather than asserted by inspecting the fix.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aRosterOnlySinkSilentlyDropsTheSpawnTimeQuarantine(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                              @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfgWithCredential(
+                "terra", "opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free", "openai-shared");
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+
+        // Deliberately ignores the profile hint — the pre-fix shape: only a roster lookup (modelled
+        // here as always empty, since acquire() has not registered the session yet either way).
+        ExhaustionSink rosterOnlySink = (target, reason, profile) -> { };
+
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = serviceWithSink(herdr, configRoot, discRoot, cfg, rosterOnlySink);
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(launcher);
+
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        MemberSession acquired = sessions.acquire(cfg.profile(), workDir, null, null);
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", acquired.agentSessionId(), "the id itself still resolves correctly");
+        assertFalse(quarantine.isQuarantined("openai-shared"),
+                "a roster-only sink cannot see this target yet — the quarantine silently never "
+                        + "happens, which is exactly fleetd #234 defect 2");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #234, round 2: the two tests above inject a sink DIRECTLY into {@link OpenCodeLauncher},
+     * which is not what {@code Fleetd.main} actually does. Production has one more hop: {@code
+     * Fleetd.java} builds the adapters (including {@code OpenCodeLauncher}) before {@code sessions}
+     * exists — a genuine construction-order cycle — so it hands the launcher a <em>forwarding</em>
+     * sink pointed at an {@code AtomicReference<ExhaustionSink>}, and only later {@code .set(...)}s
+     * that reference to the real sink once {@code sessions} is built.
+     *
+     * <p><strong>Round 3:</strong> a round-2 version of this test built its own copy of that
+     * forwarder's shape as an anonymous class. Mutating {@code Fleetd.java}'s ACTUAL forwarder back
+     * into a broken lambda left this test's own copy untouched, so it kept passing while production
+     * had regressed to the exact bug being fixed. This version instead calls {@link
+     * ExhaustionSink#forwardingTo}, the same factory {@code Fleetd.java} calls — the identical
+     * object, not a rebuilt copy of its shape — so a regression at either the {@code Fleetd.java}
+     * call site or inside {@code forwardingTo} itself has nowhere left to hide. See {@code
+     * ExhaustionSinkForwardingHazardTest} for the same factory exercised in isolation.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void theSpawnTimeQuarantineSurvivesTheFleetdStyleForwardingHop(@TempDir Path configRoot,
+                                                                     @TempDir Path discRoot) throws Exception {
+        String workDir = provisionedWorkDir(configRoot);
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = opencodeCfgWithCredential(
+                "terra", "opencode/nemotron-3-ultra-free", "openai-shared");
+        Map<String, FleetConfig.Profile> profiles = Map.of(cfg.profile(), cfg);
+        BackendQuarantine quarantine = new BackendQuarantine(() -> 0L, TimeUnit.SECONDS.toNanos(1800));
+
+        // Fleetd.java:176 — the forwarding sink is built BEFORE the real one can exist, and the
+        // launcher below is constructed against this forwarder, exactly like Fleetd.main. Calling
+        // the SAME factory Fleetd.java calls — ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo — rather than rebuilding
+        // the forwarder's shape here is the whole point (fleetd #234, round 3): a round-2 version of
+        // this test built its own copy, so mutating Fleetd.java's real forwarder back into a lambda
+        // left this test untouched. Routed through the shared factory, a regression at either the
+        // Fleetd.java call site (reverting to a hand-written lambda) or inside the factory body
+        // itself has nowhere left to hide from this test.
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<ExhaustionSink> exhaustionSinkRef =
+                new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<>(ExhaustionSink.none());
+        ExhaustionSink forwardingExhaustionSink = ExhaustionSink.forwardingTo(exhaustionSinkRef::get);
+
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        OpenCodeLauncher launcher = serviceWithSink(herdr, configRoot, discRoot, cfg, forwardingExhaustionSink);
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(launcher);
+
+        // Fleetd.java:359-390 — the real sink is only built and pointed to AFTER `sessions` exists,
+        // same order as production. Safely a lambda (round 4): see the note on the forwarder above.
+        ExhaustionSink realSink = (target, reason, profileHint) -> {
+            FleetConfig.Profile profile = profileHint == null ? null : profiles.get(profileHint);
+            if (profile != null) {
+                quarantine.quarantine(profile.effectiveCredentialId());
+            }
+        };
+        exhaustionSinkRef.set(realSink);
+
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.writeRecord(discRoot, "ses_x", workDir, 1000L,
+                "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        assertFalse(quarantine.isQuarantined("openai-shared"), "nothing quarantined before the spawn");
+
+        MemberSession acquired = sessions.acquire(cfg.profile(), workDir, null, null);
+
+        assertEquals("ses_x", acquired.agentSessionId(), "the id itself still resolves correctly");
+        assertTrue(quarantine.isQuarantined("openai-shared"),
+                "the profile hint must survive the Fleetd-style forwarding hop and reach the real "
+                        + "sink — a lambda forwarder drops it and this must go red");
+    }
 }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/member/OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest.java

@@ -27,19 +27,30 @@ class OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest {
      * and insert one row. Static so {@link OpenCodeLauncherTest} can reuse it.
      */
     static void writeRecord(Path root, String id, String directory, long timeUpdated) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, id, directory, timeUpdated, null);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Same as {@link #writeRecord(Path, String, String, long)}, plus the {@code model} column
+     * fleetd #175 reads — the raw JSON opencode writes, e.g.
+     * {@code {"id":"gpt-5.6-terra","providerID":"openai"}}. {@code modelJson} may be {@code null}.
+     */
+    static void writeRecord(Path root, String id, String directory, long timeUpdated, String modelJson)
+            throws Exception {
         Path db = root.resolve("opencode.db");
         try (Connection connection = DriverManager.getConnection("jdbc:sqlite:" + db)) {
             try (Statement statement = connection.createStatement()) {
                 statement.execute("CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS session ("
-                        + "id TEXT PRIMARY KEY, directory TEXT, time_updated INTEGER)");
+                        + "id TEXT PRIMARY KEY, directory TEXT, time_updated INTEGER, model TEXT)");
             }
             // Bound parameters, not string interpolation: the class under test uses a
             // PreparedStatement, and a hand-escaped INSERT here is a pattern someone copies out.
             try (PreparedStatement insert = connection.prepareStatement(
-                    "INSERT INTO session (id, directory, time_updated) VALUES (?, ?, ?)")) {
+                    "INSERT INTO session (id, directory, time_updated, model) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?)")) {
                 insert.setString(1, id);
                 insert.setString(2, directory);
                 insert.setLong(3, timeUpdated);
+                insert.setString(4, modelJson);
                 insert.executeUpdate();
             }
         }
@@ -134,4 +145,107 @@ class OpenCodeSessionDiscoveryTest {
         assertNull(new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).sessionIdForDirectory("/w/a"),
                 "an unreadable database resolves to null, not an exception");
     }
+
+    // --- fleetd #175/#234: actualModelForSessionId / the model JSON column -----------------------
+
+    @Test
+    void parsesTheModelJsonIntoProviderAndId(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_aaa", "/w/a", 1000L, "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-terra\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscovery.ActualModel actual =
+                new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).actualModelForSessionId("ses_aaa");
+
+        assertNotNull(actual, "a well-formed model JSON parses");
+        assertEquals("gpt-5.6-terra", actual.id());
+        assertEquals("openai", actual.provider());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void looksUpByIdEvenWhenAnotherRowInTheSameDirectoryIsNewer(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_ours", "/work/dir", 1000L, "{\"id\":\"gpt-5.6-terra\",\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_sibling", "/work/dir", 9000L, "{\"id\":\"deepseek-v4-flash\",\"providerID\":\"gx\"}");
+
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery = new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root);
+        assertEquals("gpt-5.6-terra", discovery.actualModelForSessionId("ses_ours").id(),
+                "querying by id reads OUR row, not the directory's newest row");
+        assertEquals("deepseek-v4-flash", discovery.actualModelForSessionId("ses_sibling").id(),
+                "each id resolves to its own row independently of time_updated ordering");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void anUnknownSessionIdYieldsUnknownModelRatherThanAMismatch(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_aaa", "/w/a", 1000L, "{\"id\":\"x\",\"providerID\":\"y\"}");
+
+        assertNull(new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).actualModelForSessionId("ses_no_such_row"),
+                "no row for this id yet → unknown, not a wrong model");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aBlankOrNullSessionIdYieldsUnknownModel(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_aaa", "/w/a", 1000L, "{\"id\":\"x\",\"providerID\":\"y\"}");
+
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery = new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root);
+        assertNull(discovery.actualModelForSessionId(null));
+        assertNull(discovery.actualModelForSessionId("   "));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aNullModelColumnYieldsUnknownWithoutThrowing(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_aaa", "/w/a", 1000L, null);
+
+        assertNull(new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).actualModelForSessionId("ses_aaa"),
+                "a row with no model value yet is unknown, not a mismatch");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void unparseableModelJsonYieldsUnknownWithoutThrowing(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_aaa", "/w/a", 1000L, "this is not json");
+
+        assertNull(new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).actualModelForSessionId("ses_aaa"),
+                "JSON that fails to parse resolves to unknown, never an exception");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void modelJsonMissingIdYieldsUnknown(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        writeRecord(root, "ses_aaa", "/w/a", 1000L, "{\"providerID\":\"openai\"}");
+
+        assertNull(new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).actualModelForSessionId("ses_aaa"),
+                "no id in the JSON → unknown, since id is what a caller actually compares");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aMissingDatabaseYieldsUnknownModelWithoutThrowing(@TempDir Path root) {
+        assertNull(new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root).actualModelForSessionId("ses_aaa"));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #175 site 2: a schema that predates the {@code model} column entirely — the exact
+     * shape a real opencode upgrade/downgrade could produce. This must degrade to UNKNOWN for the
+     * model, and — the property that actually matters — must NOT take id resolution down with it.
+     * A combined single query for both columns would fail this test; that is why
+     * {@link OpenCodeSessionDiscovery#actualModelForSessionId} runs its own independent query.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aMissingModelColumnYieldsUnknownButIdResolutionStillWorks(@TempDir Path root) throws Exception {
+        Path db = root.resolve("opencode.db");
+        try (Connection connection = DriverManager.getConnection("jdbc:sqlite:" + db)) {
+            try (Statement statement = connection.createStatement()) {
+                statement.execute("CREATE TABLE session (id TEXT PRIMARY KEY, directory TEXT, "
+                        + "time_updated INTEGER)");
+            }
+            try (PreparedStatement insert = connection.prepareStatement(
+                    "INSERT INTO session (id, directory, time_updated) VALUES (?, ?, ?)")) {
+                insert.setString(1, "ses_aaa");
+                insert.setString(2, "/w/a");
+                insert.setLong(3, 1000L);
+                insert.executeUpdate();
+            }
+        }
+
+        OpenCodeSessionDiscovery discovery = new OpenCodeSessionDiscovery(root);
+        assertEquals("ses_aaa", discovery.sessionIdForDirectory("/w/a"),
+                "id resolution must survive a database with no model column at all");
+        assertNull(discovery.actualModelForSessionId("ses_aaa"),
+                "no model column → unknown, not a throw and not a mismatch");
+    }
 }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/MessageServiceTest.java

@@ -56,7 +56,11 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
 
     /** Run {@code send} on a background thread; the current thread drives the worker's turn. */
     private CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> sendAsync() {
-        return CompletableFuture.supplyAsync(() -> messages.send(T, "do the task", 5000));
+        return sendAsync("do the task");
+    }
+
+    private CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> sendAsync(String content) {
+        return CompletableFuture.supplyAsync(() -> messages.send(T, content, 5000));
     }
 
     private void awaitWaiting() throws InterruptedException {
@@ -86,6 +90,94 @@ class MessageServiceTest {
         assertTrue(reply.completed(), "a scraped completion still counts as completed");
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void completionFallbackReplacesAnEchoedInjectedBriefWithNoReportOutcome() throws Exception {
+        String brief = "Implement the requested change. ".repeat(20);
+        CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> send = sendAsync(brief);
+        awaitWaiting();
+
+        herdr.readText("$ prompt");
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.WORKING);
+        herdr.readText("⏺ " + brief + "\n❯ ");
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+
+        MessageService.Reply reply = send.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS);
+        assertEquals(MessageService.Outcome.COMPLETED_UNREPLIED, reply.outcome());
+        assertEquals(CompletionResolver.NO_REPORT_PREFIX + "]", reply.text(),
+                "the real injector -> completion fallback path must not return the lead's brief");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void completionFallbackKeepsARealReportThatRestatesTheWholeBrief() throws Exception {
+        String brief = "Load the implementer skill. You own fleetd #999. ".repeat(12);
+        String report = brief + "\n\n## Report\n"
+                + ("I implemented the fix in GitWorktrees.java, added five tests, ran mvn clean install "
+                + "and got 1168 tests with 0 failures. Commit 321d8dc pushed. ").repeat(8);
+        CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> send = sendAsync(brief);
+        awaitWaiting();
+
+        herdr.readText("$ prompt");
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.WORKING);
+        herdr.readText("⏺ " + report + "\n❯ ");
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+
+        MessageService.Reply reply = send.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS);
+        assertEquals(MessageService.Outcome.COMPLETED_UNREPLIED, reply.outcome());
+        assertEquals(report.strip(), reply.text(), "a report that restates the whole brief must survive unchanged");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void completionFallbackNamesTheKnownWorktreeAndBranchForAnEchoedBrief() throws Exception {
+        FakeHerdr localHerdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        Rendezvous localRendezvous = new Rendezvous();
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong localClock = new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong();
+        CompletionResolver localCompletion = new CompletionResolver(new AgentControl(localHerdr), localRendezvous,
+                ExhaustedPatternLookup.none(), ExhaustionSink.none(),
+                dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorPatternLookup.legacy(),
+                dev.ltms.fleet.inject.BackendErrorSink.none(),
+                () -> localClock.addAndGet(CompletionResolver.MIN_TURN_NANOS + 1),
+                target -> new CompletionResolver.WorktreeBranch("/tmp/member-worktree", "worker/cb241"));
+        Injector localInjector = new Injector(new AgentControl(localHerdr), localCompletion);
+        MessageService localMessages = new MessageService(new AgentControl(localHerdr), localInjector,
+                localRendezvous, new InMemoryReplyInbox());
+        String brief = "Implement the requested change. ".repeat(20);
+        CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> send =
+                CompletableFuture.supplyAsync(() -> localMessages.send(T, brief, 5000));
+        long deadline = System.currentTimeMillis() + 2000;
+        while (!localRendezvous.isWaiting(T) && System.currentTimeMillis() < deadline) {
+            Thread.sleep(5);
+        }
+        assertTrue(localRendezvous.isWaiting(T));
+
+        localHerdr.readText("$ prompt");
+        localInjector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+        localInjector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.WORKING);
+        localHerdr.readText("⏺ " + brief + "\n❯ ");
+        localInjector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+
+        assertEquals(CompletionResolver.NO_REPORT_PREFIX + " worktree=/tmp/member-worktree "
+                        + "branch=worker/cb241]", send.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS).text());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void completionFallbackKeepsTheClippedMarkerWhenAnEchoedBriefIsTooLong() throws Exception {
+        String brief = "a".repeat(4_001); // CompletionResolver's 4,000-character scrape cap
+        CompletableFuture<MessageService.Reply> send = sendAsync(brief);
+        awaitWaiting();
+
+        herdr.readText("$ prompt");
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.WORKING);
+        herdr.readText("⏺ " + brief + "\n❯ ");
+        injector.onStatus(T, AgentStatus.IDLE);
+
+        assertEquals(CompletionResolver.NO_REPORT_PREFIX + "]\n"
+                        + "[Pane tail clipped: member did not call fleet_reply.]",
+                send.get(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS).text());
+    }
+
     @Test
     void backendErrorScrapeThroughMessageServiceFailsInsteadOfBecomingReplyText() throws Exception {
         // fleetd#164 (part 2 addendum): a scrape that reads cleanly but is only the backend's own

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/msg/ReplyPushLoopTest.java

@@ -43,6 +43,7 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
     private static final String PRIMARY = "term_primary";
     private static final String WORKER = "term_worker";
     private static final String WORKER2 = "term_worker2";
+    private static final String OTHER_PRIMARY = "term_other_primary";
     private static final ObjectMapper MAPPER = new ObjectMapper();
 
     private PrimaryRegistry registry;
@@ -529,6 +530,106 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
         assertTrue(nudge.contains("task-1"), "the ticket must not be dropped: " + nudge);
     }
 
+    // --- CB-201: backend credential outage nudges -----------------------------------------------
+
+    @Test
+    void oneBackendIncidentForTwoWorkersOfOneLeadSendsOnceAndIsOneShot() throws Exception {
+        var rec = recordingClient();
+        agents = new AgentControl(rec);
+        registry.recordDelegation(WORKER, PRIMARY);
+        registry.recordDelegation(WORKER2, PRIMARY);
+        var loop = loop(2, 100);
+
+        loop.onBackendIncident("incident-1", List.of(WORKER, WORKER2), "cred-a",
+                List.of("terra", "codex"), 47);
+
+        assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS), "one lead gets one outage injection");
+        Thread.sleep(200);
+        assertEquals(1, rec.sendCount(), "two workers for one lead must send only one outage notice");
+        String nudge = rec.sentParams().getFirst().getValue().toString();
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("cred-a"));
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("codex, terra"));
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains(WORKER) && nudge.contains(WORKER2));
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("47 remaining seconds"));
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("fleet_list"));
+
+        loop.onBackendIncident("incident-1", List.of(WORKER, WORKER2), "cred-a",
+                List.of("terra", "codex"), 47);
+        Thread.sleep(250);
+        assertEquals(1, rec.sendCount(), "a delivered incident id must never be sent again");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void oneBackendIncidentSendsOnceToEachAffectedLead() throws Exception {
+        var rec = recordingClient();
+        rec.sendLatch = new CountDownLatch(2);
+        agents = new AgentControl(rec);
+        registry.recordDelegation(WORKER, PRIMARY);
+        registry.recordDelegation(WORKER2, OTHER_PRIMARY);
+        var loop = loop(1, 50);
+
+        loop.onBackendIncident("incident-2", List.of(WORKER, WORKER2), "cred-a", List.of("terra"), 60);
+
+        assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS), "each affected lead gets its one notice");
+        assertEquals(2, rec.sendCount());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void backendIncidentWaitsForBusyLeadThenCombinesWithFailedTicket() throws Exception {
+        var rec = new BusyThenIdleHerdrClient(2);
+        agents = new AgentControl(rec);
+        var loop = loop(1, 50);
+
+        loop.onTicketTerminal("task-failed", WORKER, true);
+        loop.onBackendIncident("incident-3", List.of(WORKER), "cred-b", List.of("terra"), 31);
+
+        assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS), "busy lead should receive deferred combined nudge");
+        assertEquals(1, rec.sendCount(), "ticket and outage must use the same injection");
+        String nudge = rec.sentParams().getFirst().getValue().toString();
+        assertTrue(nudge.contains("task-failed") && nudge.contains("cred-b"),
+                "the one nudge must name both the failed ticket and outage: " + nudge);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void failedBackendIncidentSendRetriesWithinTheExistingReminderCap() throws Exception {
+        var rec = new ThrowOnceHerdrClient();
+        agents = new AgentControl(rec);
+        var loop = loop(2, 50);
+
+        loop.onBackendIncident("incident-4", List.of(WORKER), "cred-c", List.of("terra"), 20);
+
+        assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS), "failed first send must retry under maxReminders");
+        assertEquals(2, rec.promptAttempts.get(), "one failed send and one retry use the existing cap");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void unmappedBackendTargetUsesTheKnownLeadSchedule() throws Exception {
+        var rec = recordingClient();
+        agents = new AgentControl(rec);
+        var loop = loop(1, 50);
+
+        loop.onBackendTargetUnmapped(WORKER, "no credential matched");
+
+        assertTrue(rec.sendLatch.await(3, TimeUnit.SECONDS));
+        String nudge = ((Map<?, ?>) rec.sentParams().getFirst().getValue()).get("text").toString();
+        assertEquals("A backend error on worker term_worker could not be mapped to a credential "
+                        + "(no credential matched) — no cool-off was applied. "
+                        + "Run fleet_list to check that worker.",
+                nudge);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void stopClearsPendingBackendIncidents() {
+        agents = agentWithStatus("idle");
+        var loop = loop(1, 100_000);
+        loop.onBackendIncident("incident-stop", List.of(WORKER), "cred-stop", List.of("terra"), 60);
+
+        loop.stop();
+
+        assertEquals(ReplyPushLoop.Action.STOP, loop.decide(PRIMARY, 0, 0, 0),
+                "stop must clear a pending backend incident as well as older sources");
+    }
+
     // --- CB-590 follow-up: per-source reminder budgets — the regression this round exists for ---
 
     @Test
@@ -928,6 +1029,31 @@ class ReplyPushLoopTest {
         return new RecordingHerdrClient();
     }
 
+    /** Fails its first prompt call, then records the retry. */
+    private static final class ThrowOnceHerdrClient implements HerdrClient {
+        private final AtomicInteger promptAttempts = new AtomicInteger();
+        private final CountDownLatch sendLatch = new CountDownLatch(1);
+
+        @Override
+        public JsonNode call(String method, Object params) {
+            if ("agent.get".equals(method)) {
+                return MAPPER.createObjectNode().set("agent", MAPPER.createObjectNode()
+                        .put("terminal_id", PRIMARY).put("agent_status", "idle"));
+            }
+            if ("agent.prompt".equals(method) && promptAttempts.getAndIncrement() == 0) {
+                throw new IllegalStateException("first prompt fails");
+            }
+            if ("agent.prompt".equals(method)) {
+                sendLatch.countDown();
+            }
+            return MAPPER.createObjectNode();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public void close() {
+        }
+    }
+
     /**
      * Thread-safe fake that reports {@code working} (not injectable) for its first
      * {@code busyChecks} status calls, then {@code idle} forever after — used to prove work queued

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/BackendOutagePolicyTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,266 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.placement;
+
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.util.Optional;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.concurrent.CountDownLatch;
+import java.util.concurrent.ExecutorService;
+import java.util.concurrent.Executors;
+import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicInteger;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicLong;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #201 / #227: the credential-keyed outage decision itself, isolated from the classifier
+ * that produces events (Unit 1) and from the lead notice / spawn wiring (Units 3 and 5). The clock
+ * is a plain {@link AtomicLong} of nanos so the window and cool-off are exercised without a real
+ * sleep, exactly like {@code BackendQuarantineTest}.
+ */
+class BackendOutagePolicyTest {
+
+    private static final long SECOND = 1_000_000_000L;
+
+    @Test
+    void oneErrorCreatesNoIncidentAndNoCoolOff() {
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(() -> 0L);
+
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isEmpty());
+        assertTrue(policy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void twoErrorsWithinTheWindowCreateExactlyOneIncidentAndA60SecondCoolOff() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        assertTrue(policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429").isEmpty());
+        now.set(30 * SECOND);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isPresent());
+        BackendOutagePolicy.Incident value = incident.get();
+        assertEquals("shared-openai", value.credentialId());
+        assertEquals(Set.of("session-1", "session-2"), value.targets());
+        assertEquals(2, value.evidenceCount());
+        assertEquals(60L, value.windowSeconds());
+        assertEquals(60L, value.remainingCoolOffSeconds());
+        assertEquals(OptionalLongOf60(), policy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void repeatedErrorsFromTheSameTargetNeverCreateAnIncidentHoweverManyTimesTheyRepeat() {
+        // The classifier is a heuristic and a valid member report can quote an "API Error:" line, so
+        // one target repeating that line inside the window must never, by itself, cost the credential
+        // its capacity — only a SECOND, DISTINCT target crossing the threshold does.
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++) {
+            now.set(i * 10L * SECOND);
+            Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                    policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429");
+            assertTrue(incident.isEmpty(),
+                    "the same target repeating must never create an incident on its own (repeat #" + i + ")");
+        }
+        assertTrue(policy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void evidenceCountIsDistinctTargetsWhileReasonsKeepsEveryEvent() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        assertTrue(policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429").isEmpty());
+        now.set(10 * SECOND);
+        // a repeat from the already-counted target: still no incident, still only 1 distinct target
+        assertTrue(policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429 (again)").isEmpty());
+        now.set(20 * SECOND);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isPresent());
+        BackendOutagePolicy.Incident value = incident.get();
+        assertEquals(Set.of("session-1", "session-2"), value.targets());
+        assertEquals(2, value.evidenceCount(), "evidenceCount is the distinct-target count");
+        assertEquals(3, value.reasons().size(),
+                "reasons keeps every event, including the same-target repeat that did not advance the count");
+        assertEquals(java.util.List.of("API Error: 429", "API Error: 429 (again)", "API Error: 500"),
+                value.reasons());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void twoErrorsMoreThanAMinuteApartCreateNoIncident() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        assertTrue(policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429").isEmpty());
+        now.set(60 * SECOND + 1);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isEmpty(), "the first error's evidence must not survive past the window");
+        assertTrue(policy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai").isEmpty());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void exactly60SecondsApartIsInsideTheWindow() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        assertTrue(policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429").isEmpty());
+        now.set(60 * SECOND); // exactly the boundary
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isPresent(), "60 seconds apart is inclusive of the window boundary");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void differentCredentialsNeverShareEvidence() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        assertTrue(policy.record("credential-a", "session-1", "API Error: 429").isEmpty());
+        now.set(10 * SECOND);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("credential-b", "session-2", "API Error: 429");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isEmpty(), "an unrelated credential must not be swept into the count");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void twoDifferentProfilesResolvingToTheSameCredentialShareEvidence() {
+        // The caller is responsible for resolving a profile to its credential id (see
+        // FleetConfig.Profile#effectiveCredentialId(), same as BackendQuarantine); this class only
+        // ever sees the resolved credentialId, so two different profile-originated events landing on
+        // the same credentialId must correlate.
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        assertTrue(policy.record("shared-openai", "session-from-profile-a", "API Error: 429").isEmpty());
+        now.set(5 * SECOND);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-from-profile-b", "API Error: 500");
+
+        assertTrue(incident.isPresent());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void errorsDuringCoolOffNeitherExtendTheDeadlineNorReturnAnotherIncident() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429");
+        now.set(1 * SECOND);
+        policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500"); // crosses threshold, cool-off starts at t=1s, until t=61s
+
+        now.set(50 * SECOND);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> duringCoolOff =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-3", "API Error: 500");
+        assertTrue(duringCoolOff.isEmpty(), "no second incident while cooling off");
+        assertEquals(OptionalLongOf(11), policy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "the deadline must not have been pushed out by the error during cool-off");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void expiryClearsOldEvidenceSoTwoFreshErrorsAreRequiredToRearm() {
+        // Both errors land at the SAME instant (t=0) so the window boundary (60s from t=0) and the
+        // cool-off boundary (60s from the threshold crossing, also t=0) coincide exactly at t=60s.
+        // That is deliberate: with WINDOW_NANOS == COOLOFF_NANOS, checking "one fresh error" at any
+        // later instant would also be caught by the window naturally going stale, which would pass
+        // even if the explicit evidence-clear on cool-off expiry were missing. Checking exactly AT
+        // t=60s is the one instant where "now - firstEventNanos > WINDOW_NANOS" is false (60 is not
+        // > 60) but the cool-off has already elapsed ("now < coolOffUntilNanos" is false at 60 >= 60)
+        // — so only an explicit clear, not a side effect of the window check, keeps this from
+        // instantly re-mounting the old evidence and minting a bogus incident off one fresh error.
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429");
+        policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500"); // cool-off until t=60s
+
+        now.set(60 * SECOND); // cool-off just elapsed, exactly at the window's own boundary too
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> oneFreshError =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-4", "API Error: 500");
+        assertTrue(oneFreshError.isEmpty(), "a single fresh error must not immediately re-trip");
+
+        now.set(61 * SECOND);
+        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> secondFreshError =
+                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-5", "API Error: 500");
+        assertTrue(secondFreshError.isPresent(), "two fresh errors after expiry re-arm the policy");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void remainingSecondsRoundUp() {
+        AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+        BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+
+        policy.record("shared-openai", "session-1", "API Error: 429");
+        now.set(1); // 1 nanosecond later, still crosses the threshold
+        policy.record("shared-openai", "session-2", "API Error: 500");
+
+        // cool-off deadline is now(=1ns) + 60s exactly; a fraction-of-a-second-remaining check:
+        now.set(1 + 59 * SECOND + 1); // 59.000000001s of the cool-off has passed -> < 1s remains
+        assertEquals(OptionalLongOf(1), policy.remainingCoolOffSeconds("shared-openai"),
+                "a sub-second remainder must round up to a full second, matching BackendQuarantine");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aConcurrentSecondAndThirdCallReturnOnlyOneIncidentBetweenThem() throws InterruptedException {
+        for (int attempt = 0; attempt < 25; attempt++) {
+            AtomicLong now = new AtomicLong(0L);
+            BackendOutagePolicy policy = new BackendOutagePolicy(now::get);
+            int threads = 8;
+            ExecutorService pool = Executors.newFixedThreadPool(threads);
+            CountDownLatch ready = new CountDownLatch(threads);
+            CountDownLatch go = new CountDownLatch(1);
+            AtomicInteger incidents = new AtomicInteger();
+
+            try {
+                for (int i = 0; i < threads; i++) {
+                    int idx = i;
+                    pool.submit(() -> {
+                        ready.countDown();
+                        try {
+                            go.await();
+                        } catch (InterruptedException e) {
+                            Thread.currentThread().interrupt();
+                            return;
+                        }
+                        Optional<BackendOutagePolicy.Incident> incident =
+                                policy.record("shared-openai", "session-" + idx, "API Error: 500");
+                        if (incident.isPresent()) {
+                            incidents.incrementAndGet();
+                        }
+                    });
+                }
+
+                assertTrue(ready.await(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS));
+                go.countDown();
+                pool.shutdown();
+                assertTrue(pool.awaitTermination(5, TimeUnit.SECONDS));
+
+                assertEquals(1, incidents.get(),
+                        "exactly one incident must be minted across every concurrent caller on attempt " + attempt);
+            } finally {
+                pool.shutdownNow();
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static java.util.OptionalLong OptionalLongOf60() {
+        return OptionalLongOf(60);
+    }
+
+    private static java.util.OptionalLong OptionalLongOf(long value) {
+        return java.util.OptionalLong.of(value);
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/placement/PlacementPolicyTest.java

@@ -30,7 +30,14 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
     private static PlacementContext ctx(List<PlacementCandidate> candidates,
                                         Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
                                         Set<String> unreachable, Set<String> quarantined) {
-        return new PlacementContext("b", candidates, liveCount, unreachable, quarantined);
+        return ctx(candidates, liveCount, unreachable, quarantined, Set.of());
+    }
+
+    private static PlacementContext ctx(List<PlacementCandidate> candidates,
+                                        Function<String, Integer> liveCount,
+                                        Set<String> unreachable, Set<String> quarantined,
+                                        Set<String> coolingOff) {
+        return new PlacementContext("b", candidates, liveCount, unreachable, quarantined, coolingOff);
     }
 
     private static PlacementContext ctx(List<PlacementCandidate> candidates,
@@ -52,14 +59,14 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
         PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.fixed();
         PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext(null,
                 List.of(PlacementCandidate.profile("a"), PlacementCandidate.profile("b")),
-                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of());
+                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of());
         assertEquals("a", policy.select(ctx).profile());
     }
 
     @Test
     void fixedThrowsWhenNoProfilesAndNoDefault() {
         PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.fixed();
-        PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext(null, List.of(), noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of());
+        PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext(null, List.of(), noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of());
         assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> policy.select(ctx));
     }
 
@@ -68,7 +75,7 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
         PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.fixed();
         PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext("b",
                 List.of(PlacementCandidate.profile("a"), PlacementCandidate.profile("b")),
-                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of("b"));
+                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of("b"), Set.of());
         assertEquals("a", policy.select(ctx).profile(),
                 "the default 'b' is quarantined, so fixed falls through to the first un-quarantined candidate");
     }
@@ -78,7 +85,7 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
         PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.fixed();
         PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext("b",
                 List.of(PlacementCandidate.profile("a"), PlacementCandidate.profile("b")),
-                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of("a", "b"));
+                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of("a", "b"), Set.of());
         PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> policy.select(ctx));
         assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("quarantined"), e.getMessage());
     }
@@ -211,6 +218,67 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
         assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("quarantined"), e.getMessage());
     }
 
+    // --- fleetd #201 Unit 5: coolingOff excludes a candidate, SEPARATE from quarantined --------
+
+    @Test
+    void roundRobinSkipsCoolingOffProfiles() {
+        PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.roundRobin();
+        List<PlacementCandidate> candidates = List.of(
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("a"),
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("b"));
+        PlacementContext ctx = ctx(candidates, noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of("a"));
+        for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++) {
+            assertEquals("b", policy.select(ctx).profile(), "a is cooling off, so every pick lands on b");
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void weightedSkipsCoolingOffProfile() {
+        PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.weighted();
+        List<PlacementCandidate> candidates = List.of(
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("a", 1.0f, null),
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("b", 1.0f, null));
+        PlacementContext ctx = ctx(candidates, noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of("a"));
+        for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++) {
+            assertEquals("b", policy.select(ctx).profile(), "a is cooling off, so every pick lands on b");
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void weightedThrowsWhenAllCoolingOff() {
+        PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.weighted();
+        List<PlacementCandidate> candidates = List.of(
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("a"),
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("b"));
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class,
+                () -> policy.select(ctx(candidates, noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of("a", "b"))));
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cooling off"), e.getMessage());
+        assertFalse(e.getMessage().contains("quarantined"),
+                "nothing here is quarantined — the message must say cooling off, not exhausted: " + e.getMessage());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * A candidate that is BOTH quarantined (CB-578 stage B) and cooling off (fleetd #201 Unit 5)
+     * counts only as quarantined — exhaustion takes priority, matching
+     * {@code CompositePeerLauncher}'s explicit-spawn check order.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void quarantinedAndCoolingOffIsNotDoubleCounted() {
+        PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.weighted();
+        List<PlacementCandidate> candidates = List.of(
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("a"),
+                PlacementCandidate.profile("b"));
+        // a is BOTH quarantined and cooling off; b is quarantined only. If a were double-bucketed
+        // as cooling-off instead of quarantined, quarantined would undercount to 1 of 2 candidates
+        // and this would fall through to the generic "no worker profile available: N quarantined, M
+        // cooling off, ..." message instead — which also happens to contain the substring
+        // "quarantined", so a loose contains() check here would pass either way. Pinning the exact
+        // "all ... quarantined" message is what actually proves the two are not double-counted.
+        PlacementContext ctx = ctx(candidates, noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of("a", "b"), Set.of("a"));
+        PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> policy.select(ctx));
+        assertEquals("all worker profiles are quarantined (backend exhausted)", e.getMessage());
+    }
+
     @Test
     void weightedThrowsWhenAllUnreachable() {
         PlacementPolicy policy = PlacementPolicies.weighted();
@@ -320,7 +388,7 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
         PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext("b",
                 List.of(PlacementCandidate.profile("a", 1.0f, null),
                         PlacementCandidate.profile("b", 0.0f, null)),
-                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of());
+                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of());
         assertEquals("a", policy.select(ctx).profile(),
                 "the default 'b' has weight 0, so fixed falls through to the first available candidate");
     }
@@ -331,7 +399,7 @@ class PlacementPolicyTest {
         PlacementContext ctx = new PlacementContext("b",
                 List.of(PlacementCandidate.profile("a", 0.0f, null),
                         PlacementCandidate.profile("b", 0.0f, null)),
-                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of());
+                noSessions(), Set.of(), Set.of(), Set.of());
         PlacementException e = assertThrows(PlacementException.class, () -> policy.select(ctx));
         assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("weight 0"), e.getMessage());
     }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/rest/RestRouteInventoryTest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+package dev.ltms.fleet.rest;
+
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
+import java.util.LinkedHashSet;
+import java.util.Locale;
+import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.regex.Matcher;
+import java.util.regex.Pattern;
+import java.util.stream.Collectors;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.DisplayName;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import static org.junit.jupiter.api.Assertions.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * fleetd #252: the REST surface has no supported operator entry point of its own — it is the
+ * documented fallback for when the MCP mount drops (see the operator wiki's REST page), and
+ * nothing has ever checked a hand-written route list against it. Proof it drifts: the ticket
+ * itself was filed with 14 routes, and {@link FleetApp} registers 15 — {@code GET
+ * /member-credentials} (fleetd #111) shipped hours before the ticket and was already missing from
+ * its list.
+ *
+ * <p>This test is modelled on {@code McpContractDocTest} (fleetd #114 / CB-609), which solved the
+ * same shape of problem for the MCP tool catalogue: read the source text with a regex instead of
+ * trusting a maintained copy. Here the "doc" is an explicit inventory written directly in this
+ * test rather than a separate Markdown file, because the operator wiki page lives in a submodule
+ * a worker cannot read reliably (see {@code CLAUDE.md} → Project addendum). Keeping the expected
+ * list in the test means it still fails loudly the moment {@link FleetApp} changes, which is the
+ * property that actually matters; a human keeps the wiki page in sync using the failure message
+ * below as the diff.
+ *
+ * <p><b>It checks source text, not behaviour.</b> It reads {@link FleetApp}'s source for {@code
+ * app.<verb>("<path>")} registrations and does not boot a server. It cannot catch a route that is
+ * registered through some other mechanism entirely (a filter, a redirect) — only ones shaped like
+ * the {@code app.get/post/delete/put/patch(...)} calls every route here actually uses.
+ */
+class RestRouteInventoryTest {
+
+    /** Tests run with the module directory as cwd. */
+    private static final Path REST_SOURCE = Path.of("src/main/java/dev/ltms/fleet/rest/FleetApp.java");
+
+    /**
+     * The REST surface as verified against {@link FleetApp} on 2026-09-03 (fleetd #252). Update
+     * this list AND the operator wiki's REST-surface entry together whenever a route is added,
+     * removed, or renamed — never one without the other.
+     *
+     * <p>{@code /mcp} is deliberately excluded: it is a raw Jetty {@code ServletHolder} mount
+     * (see {@code FleetApp.build()}, around the {@code modifyServletContextHandler} call), not an
+     * {@code app.<verb>(...)} route, so it is a different registration mechanism and this test's
+     * regex does not — and should not — see it. If {@code /mcp} ever moves to a Javalin route,
+     * add it here explicitly rather than relying on the regex to pick it up by accident.
+     */
+    private static final Set<String> EXPECTED_ROUTES = Set.of(
+            "GET /healthz",
+            "GET /metrics",
+            "GET /sessions",
+            "GET /agents",
+            "GET /members",
+            "GET /profiles",
+            "GET /member-credentials",
+            "POST /members",
+            "DELETE /members/{paneId}",
+            "POST /sessions/{id}/message",
+            "POST /sessions/{id}/reply",
+            "GET /sessions/{id}/replies",
+            "POST /sessions/{id}/ask",
+            "GET /sessions/{id}/status",
+            "GET /tasks/{ticket}"
+    );
+
+    private static final Pattern ROUTE_CALL =
+            Pattern.compile("app\\.(get|post|delete|put|patch)\\(\\s*\"([^\"]+)\"");
+
+    /**
+     * Drop whole-line comments before scraping. Without this the scrape reads commented-out code as
+     * live: a registration disabled with {@code //} still matched, so the route stayed in the
+     * inventory while the server no longer served it — a silent false PASS, measured on 2026-09-03
+     * by commenting out {@code app.get("/tasks/{ticket}", ...)} and watching this test stay green.
+     * Deleting the same line was caught correctly, so only the commented-out shape was blind.
+     *
+     * <p>Only lines whose first non-blank characters are {@code //}, {@code *} or {@code /*} are
+     * dropped — deliberately NOT every {@code //} anywhere on a line, because that would also cut a
+     * string literal containing {@code //} (a URL) and could silently delete a real registration
+     * sharing that line. The remaining gap is a trailing comment on the same line as real code; no
+     * registration in this file has that shape, and the vacuity test below would catch a scrape that
+     * lost registrations wholesale.
+     */
+    private static String withoutCommentLines(String source) {
+        return source.lines()
+                .filter(line -> {
+                    String t = line.stripLeading();
+                    return !(t.startsWith("//") || t.startsWith("*") || t.startsWith("/*"));
+                })
+                .collect(Collectors.joining("\n"));
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Every {@code app.<verb>("<path>")} call in {@link FleetApp}'s source, as {@code "VERB path"}.
+     * This matches inside an {@code if (...) { ... }} block just as well as a top-level statement —
+     * the regex only looks for the call shape, not its surrounding control flow — which is what
+     * catches {@code GET /metrics} (registered conditionally on {@code metrics != null}).
+     */
+    private static Set<String> routesTheServerRegisters() throws Exception {
+        Matcher m = ROUTE_CALL.matcher(withoutCommentLines(Files.readString(REST_SOURCE)));
+        Set<String> found = new LinkedHashSet<>();
+        while (m.find()) {
+            found.add(m.group(1).toUpperCase(Locale.ROOT) + " " + m.group(2));
+        }
+        return found;
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] FleetApp registers exactly the documented REST route inventory")
+    void theRegisteredRoutesMatchTheExpectedInventory() throws Exception {
+        Set<String> actual = routesTheServerRegisters();
+
+        Set<String> added = new LinkedHashSet<>(actual);
+        added.removeAll(EXPECTED_ROUTES);
+        Set<String> removed = new LinkedHashSet<>(EXPECTED_ROUTES);
+        removed.removeAll(actual);
+
+        assertTrue(added.isEmpty() && removed.isEmpty(),
+                "FleetApp's registered REST routes no longer match this test's expected inventory. "
+                        + "Added (in FleetApp, not in this test): " + added + ". "
+                        + "Removed (in this test, not in FleetApp): " + removed + ". "
+                        + "Update EXPECTED_ROUTES in RestRouteInventoryTest AND the operator wiki's "
+                        + "REST-surface entry together — this is the fleetd #252 defect: the route "
+                        + "list drifted for a month with nothing checking it. Do NOT weaken this test.");
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The denominator guard (same shape as {@code McpContractDocTest}'s vacuity check). Pins that
+     * the regex really is still finding registrations, so a scrape that silently stops matching
+     * can't make the check above pass by finding nothing on both sides.
+     */
+    @Test
+    @DisplayName("[SOURCE TEXT] the route scrape is not vacuous — it found the expected count")
+    void theScrapeActuallyFoundRoutes() throws Exception {
+        Set<String> actual = routesTheServerRegisters();
+        assertTrue(actual.size() >= EXPECTED_ROUTES.size(),
+                "scraped only " + actual.size() + " route registration(s) from FleetApp (" + actual
+                        + "), but this test expects at least " + EXPECTED_ROUTES.size()
+                        + "; the app.<verb>(\"...\") scrape has stopped matching and the check above "
+                        + "is now vacuous");
+    }
+}

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/FakeWorktrees.java

@@ -45,6 +45,9 @@ public final class FakeWorktrees implements Worktrees {
     private final List<String> overlayShareOrder = new CopyOnWriteArrayList<>();
     private final Set<String> existingPaths = ConcurrentHashMap.newKeySet();
     private final Set<String> trackedPaths = ConcurrentHashMap.newKeySet();
+    /** Worktree paths that currently exist, mirroring GitWorktrees' {@code Files.exists} check for
+     *  the already-gone case (CB-576 review, fleetd #116). */
+    private final Set<String> worktreePaths = ConcurrentHashMap.newKeySet();
     private final AtomicLong snapshotSeq = new AtomicLong();
     private volatile RuntimeException addFailure;
     private volatile RuntimeException snapshotFailure;
@@ -115,7 +118,15 @@ public final class FakeWorktrees implements Worktrees {
         }
         // The branch already carries a unique nonce, so the derived path is distinct per acquire
         // without an extra counter — keep it a pure function of the branch the test can predict.
-        return prefix + "/" + branch.replace('/', '_');
+        String path = prefix + "/" + branch.replace('/', '_');
+        worktreePaths.add(path);
+        return path;
+    }
+
+    /** Model an operator / {@code git worktree prune} removing the worktree before release. */
+    public FakeWorktrees markGone(String worktreePath) {
+        worktreePaths.remove(worktreePath);
+        return this;
     }
 
     @Override
@@ -125,6 +136,11 @@ public final class FakeWorktrees implements Worktrees {
 
     @Override
     public boolean hasUncommitted(String worktreePath) {
+        // A path that was never added, or was marked gone, is reported clean, mirroring
+        // GitWorktrees' already-gone guard — never an error, so teardown still completes.
+        if (!worktreePaths.contains(worktreePath)) {
+            return false;
+        }
         return dirty;
     }
 

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/GitWorktreesTest.java

@@ -666,6 +666,103 @@ class GitWorktreesTest {
         assertEquals("", status(Path.of(wt), ".autoenv"), ".autoenv still shows as modified");
     }
 
+    // ---- fleetd #134: isolateToolSurface must report what it neutralized (to the daemon operator's
+    // log) and record it where the worker itself can read it (worktree-scoped git config), without
+    // ever showing up in the worker's own `git status`. All drive the real provisioning path,
+    // GitWorktrees#add, per criterion 5 — the whole provisioned worktree is what's under test here. ----
+
+    private static Path initRepoWithAllThreeConfigs(Path dir) throws Exception {
+        Files.createDirectories(dir);
+        git(dir, "init", "-q", "-b", "main");
+        git(dir, "config", "user.email", "test@example.invalid");
+        git(dir, "config", "user.name", "Test");
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve(".mcp.json"), WITH_SERVERS);
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("opencode.json"), OPENCODE_WITH_FILE_REF);
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve(".autoenv"), AUTOENV_WITH_DIRECTIVE);
+        Files.writeString(dir.resolve("README.md"), "seed\n");
+        git(dir, "add", ".mcp.json", "opencode.json", ".autoenv", "README.md");
+        git(dir, "commit", "-q", "-m", "seed");
+        return dir;
+    }
+
+    /** Criterion 1, all three present: the summary names the denominator and every neutralized file. */
+    @Test
+    void isolateToolSurfaceLogsAllThreeConfigsNeutralized(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        reportingLogger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        Path repo = initRepoWithAllThreeConfigs(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+
+        new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString()).add(repo.toString(), "cb-134-log-all", "HEAD");
+
+        assertTrue(capturedMessages().contains(
+                        "tool-surface isolation: neutralized 3 of 3 configs: .mcp.json, opencode.json, "
+                                + ".autoenv — the worktree copy is a stub, not the repo's file; edit the "
+                                + "real file in the primary checkout instead"),
+                "expected the all-neutralized summary line, got:\n" + capturedMessages());
+    }
+
+    /** Criterion 1, two absent: the summary must still name the denominator and say why. */
+    @Test
+    void isolateToolSurfaceLogsAbsentConfigsWithReason(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        reportingLogger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo")); // only .mcp.json + README committed
+
+        new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString()).add(repo.toString(), "cb-134-log-partial", "HEAD");
+
+        assertTrue(capturedMessages().contains(
+                        "tool-surface isolation: neutralized 1 of 3 configs: .mcp.json (opencode.json "
+                                + "absent, .autoenv absent) — the worktree copy is a stub, not the repo's "
+                                + "file; edit the real file in the primary checkout instead"),
+                "expected the partial summary line, got:\n" + capturedMessages());
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Criterion 2. The daemon's own log is invisible to the worker process — it never reads fleetd's
+     * stdout. This is the mechanism the worker itself can query, from inside its own worktree, to
+     * learn "this file is neutralized here, the repo's real file differs" instead of trusting what it
+     * just read on disk.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aWorkerCanDiscoverNeutralizedConfigsFromWorktreeScopedGitConfig(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepoWithAllThreeConfigs(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+
+        String wt = new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString())
+                .add(repo.toString(), "cb-134-discover", "HEAD");
+
+        String recorded = gitOutput(Path.of(wt), "config", "--worktree", "--get-all", "fleet.neutralizedConfig");
+        Set<String> files = new HashSet<>();
+        for (String line : recorded.split("\\R")) {
+            if (!line.isBlank()) {
+                files.add(line.trim());
+            }
+        }
+        assertEquals(Set.of(".mcp.json", "opencode.json", ".autoenv"), files,
+                "the worker-readable record must name every neutralized file: " + recorded);
+
+        String note = gitOutput(Path.of(wt), "config", "--worktree", "--get", "fleet.neutralizedConfigNote").trim();
+        assertTrue(note.contains("stub"), "note must say the worktree copy is a stub: " + note);
+        assertTrue(note.contains("primary checkout"),
+                "note must state the consequence — where to edit the real file instead: " + note);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Criterion 3. Whatever fleetd#134's worker-discovery mechanism writes must never appear as
+     * untracked or modified in the worker's own `git status` — a worker that sees a stray file either
+     * commits it by mistake or burns a turn asking about it. This runs the full porcelain status, not
+     * a single-file check, so any leftover file anywhere in the worktree would fail it.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aProvisionedWorktreeHasCleanGitStatusDespiteNeutralizedConfigRecordkeeping(@TempDir Path tmp)
+            throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepoWithAllThreeConfigs(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+
+        String wt = new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString())
+                .add(repo.toString(), "cb-134-clean-status", "HEAD");
+
+        assertEquals("", fullStatus(Path.of(wt)),
+                "a freshly provisioned worktree must show a clean `git status --porcelain`, including "
+                        + "after the worker-readable neutralized-config record was written");
+    }
+
     /**
      * CB-578 stage C, acceptance criterion 1. A dirty worktree — a tracked edit plus a brand-new
      * untracked file, exactly the shape lost in CB-576 — must land in {@code refs/wip/<branch>}'s
@@ -1099,4 +1196,190 @@ class GitWorktreesTest {
         assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cb185-nonexistent-group-zz"),
                 "exception must name the missing/refused group: " + e.getMessage());
     }
+
+    // --- fleetd #224: worktreeRoot itself must be group-traversable, established in add() ---------
+
+    /**
+     * {@code add} must make the worktree ROOT itself group-traversable when a group is configured —
+     * established once here, where the root is created, never at a use site (never inside a
+     * launcher). A recording runner stands in for chgrp/chmod, the same seam
+     * {@link #shareWithGroupRunsConfigThenChgrpChmodSetgidPerPath} uses for the per-worktree share.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void addSharesWorktreeRootWithGroupWhenConfigured(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Path root = tmp.resolve("wts");
+        List<List<String>> recorded = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        java.util.function.Function<String[], String> recordingRunner = cmd -> {
+            recorded.add(joined(cmd));
+            return "";
+        };
+        GitWorktrees gitWorktrees = new GitWorktrees(root.toString(), "devteam", _ -> {}, recordingRunner);
+
+        gitWorktrees.add(repo.toString(), "cb-224-branch", "HEAD");
+
+        assertTrue(recorded.contains(List.of("chgrp", "devteam", root.toString())),
+                "the worktree root itself must be chgrp'd to the configured group: " + recorded);
+        assertTrue(recorded.contains(List.of("chmod", "g+x", root.toString())),
+                "the worktree root itself must gain group-execute so a different-uid member can "
+                        + "traverse into it: " + recorded);
+    }
+
+    /** {@code worktreeGroup} unset (today's only live mode) ⇒ {@code add} spawns no share process
+     *  for the root at all — behaviour must be byte-identical to before fleetd #224. */
+    @Test
+    void addSharesNothingForTheRootWhenNoGroupConfigured(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Path root = tmp.resolve("wts");
+        List<List<String>> recorded = new java.util.ArrayList<>();
+        java.util.function.Function<String[], String> recordingRunner = cmd -> {
+            recorded.add(joined(cmd));
+            return "";
+        };
+        GitWorktrees gitWorktrees = new GitWorktrees(root.toString(), null, _ -> {}, recordingRunner);
+
+        gitWorktrees.add(repo.toString(), "cb-224-nogroup", "HEAD");
+
+        assertTrue(recorded.isEmpty(), "no group configured must spawn no share process for the "
+                + "root at all: " + recorded);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * fleetd #224, acceptance criterion 2/3: when the root cannot be made group-traversable — here
+     * because the configured group does not exist, the same real-failure shape
+     * {@link #shareWithGroupThrowsNamingTheGroupWhenChgrpFails} drives for the per-worktree share —
+     * the spawn is refused with a message naming the root, its current mode, and the group. This
+     * drives the REAL {@code chgrp} (no recording runner), and the refusal happens before {@code git
+     * worktree add} ever runs, so no partial worktree is left behind either.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void addRefusesWhenWorktreeRootCannotBeMadeGroupTraversable(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Path root = tmp.resolve("wts");
+        GitWorktrees gitWorktrees = new GitWorktrees(root.toString(), "cb224-nonexistent-group-zz");
+
+        WorktreeException e = assertThrows(WorktreeException.class,
+                () -> gitWorktrees.add(repo.toString(), "cb-224-refuse", "HEAD"));
+
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains(root.toString()),
+                "refusal must name the worktree root: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains("cb224-nonexistent-group-zz"),
+                "refusal must name the missing/refused group: " + e.getMessage());
+        assertTrue(Files.isDirectory(root), "the root is created before the group check runs");
+        String mode = java.nio.file.attribute.PosixFilePermissions.toString(Files.getPosixFilePermissions(root));
+        assertTrue(e.getMessage().contains(mode),
+                "refusal must name the root's current mode (" + mode + "): " + e.getMessage());
+        try (java.util.stream.Stream<Path> children = Files.list(root)) {
+            assertTrue(children.findAny().isEmpty(), "no worktree must be left behind under the root: "
+                    + "the refusal must happen before `git worktree add` ever runs");
+        }
+    }
+
+    // ---- fleetd #134 / #148 point 3: overlayParity must report what it did, and marking a tracked
+    // file --skip-worktree must say the file can no longer be committed from this worktree. Drives
+    // overlayParity directly against a real worktree (git worktree add, no GitWorktrees#add) so these
+    // tests are independent of origin/credential-helper provisioning, which is not under test here. ----
+
+    /** A bare worktree, sibling to {@code repo}, created with plain git — the target overlayParity
+     *  copies into. Deliberately not {@link GitWorktrees#add}: that method does unrelated
+     *  provisioning (origin rewrite, .mcp.json neutralization, credential helper) that would only
+     *  add noise to the log assertions below. */
+    private static Path bareWorktree(Path repo, Path wtDir, String branch) throws Exception {
+        git(repo, "worktree", "add", "-q", wtDir.toString(), "-b", branch, "HEAD");
+        return wtDir;
+    }
+
+    /** Acceptance criterion 1: only the configured candidates land in the worktree — nothing else
+     *  from the source tree leaks in alongside them. */
+    @Test
+    void overlayParityCopiesExactlyTheConfiguredFilesAndNothingElse(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".env"), "A=1\n");
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".envrc"), "export A=1\n");
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve("not-overlaid.txt"), "must not be copied\n");
+        Path wt = bareWorktree(repo, tmp.resolve("wt"), "cb134-exact");
+
+        new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString())
+                .overlayParity(repo.toString(), wt.toString(), List.of(".env", ".envrc"));
+
+        assertEquals("A=1\n", Files.readString(wt.resolve(".env")));
+        assertEquals("export A=1\n", Files.readString(wt.resolve(".envrc")));
+        assertFalse(Files.exists(wt.resolve("not-overlaid.txt")),
+                "overlayParity must copy only the configured candidates, not the whole source tree");
+    }
+
+    /** Criterion 2: both candidates present — the summary line names both and the denominator. */
+    @Test
+    void overlayParityLogsBothCopiedWhenBothCandidatesArePresent(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        reportingLogger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".env"), "A=1\n");
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".envrc"), "export A=1\n");
+        Path wt = bareWorktree(repo, tmp.resolve("wt"), "cb134-both");
+
+        new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString())
+                .overlayParity(repo.toString(), wt.toString(), List.of(".env", ".envrc"));
+
+        assertTrue(capturedMessages().contains("parity overlay: copied 2 of 2 candidates: .env, .envrc"),
+                "expected the both-copied summary line, got:\n" + capturedMessages());
+    }
+
+    /** Criterion 2: one candidate present, one absent — the summary must name the copied file, the
+     *  denominator, and why the other candidate was not copied. */
+    @Test
+    void overlayParityLogsOneCopiedOneAbsent(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        reportingLogger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".env"), "A=1\n");
+        // .envrc deliberately not created — the absent candidate.
+        Path wt = bareWorktree(repo, tmp.resolve("wt"), "cb134-partial");
+
+        new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString())
+                .overlayParity(repo.toString(), wt.toString(), List.of(".env", ".envrc"));
+
+        assertTrue(Files.exists(wt.resolve(".env")));
+        assertFalse(Files.exists(wt.resolve(".envrc")));
+        assertTrue(capturedMessages().contains("parity overlay: copied 1 of 2 candidates: .env (.envrc absent)"),
+                "expected the copied/absent summary line, got:\n" + capturedMessages());
+    }
+
+    /** Criterion 3: a tracked candidate is marked --skip-worktree, and that must be named in the log
+     *  with the consequence spelled out — a worker editing it afterward finds git ignoring the
+     *  change, silently, unless this line told it so beforehand. */
+    @Test
+    void overlayParityLogsSkipWorktreeConsequenceForATrackedFile(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        reportingLogger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".env"), "A=1\n");
+        git(repo, "add", ".env");
+        git(repo, "commit", "-q", "-m", "track env");
+        Path wt = bareWorktree(repo, tmp.resolve("wt"), "cb134-tracked");
+        // Change the source after the worktree checkout, so the overlay copy actually overwrites it.
+        Files.writeString(repo.resolve(".env"), "A=2\n");
+
+        new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString())
+                .overlayParity(repo.toString(), wt.toString(), List.of(".env"));
+
+        assertEquals("A=2\n", Files.readString(wt.resolve(".env")));
+        assertEquals("", status(wt, ".env"),
+                "the skip-worktree'd file must not show as modified even though its content changed");
+        assertTrue(capturedMessages().contains(
+                        "parity overlay marked --skip-worktree (cannot be committed from this worktree): .env"),
+                "expected the skip-worktree consequence line, got:\n" + capturedMessages());
+    }
+
+    /** Criterion 5: null and empty overlay lists return quietly — no exception, no log noise. */
+    @Test
+    void overlayParityWithNoCandidatesLogsNothing(@TempDir Path tmp) throws Exception {
+        reportingLogger.setLevel(Level.INFO);
+        Path repo = initRepo(tmp.resolve("repo"));
+        Path wt = bareWorktree(repo, tmp.resolve("wt"), "cb134-empty");
+        GitWorktrees worktrees = new GitWorktrees(tmp.resolve("wts").toString());
+
+        worktrees.overlayParity(repo.toString(), wt.toString(), null);
+        worktrees.overlayParity(repo.toString(), wt.toString(), List.of());
+
+        assertTrue(reportingAppender.list.isEmpty(),
+                "a null/empty overlay must log nothing, got:\n" + capturedMessages());
+    }
 }

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/SessionManagerTest.java

@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ import ch.qos.logback.classic.Level;
 import ch.qos.logback.classic.LoggerContext;
 import ch.qos.logback.classic.spi.ILoggingEvent;
 import ch.qos.logback.core.read.ListAppender;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.MemberRegistry;
+import dev.ltms.fleet.auth.MemberLifecycle;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.config.FleetConfig;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.guard.SubscriptionGuard;
 import dev.ltms.fleet.herdr.AgentControl;
@@ -298,6 +300,151 @@ class SessionManagerTest {
         assertTrue(sessions.roster().contains(updated), "FAILED is still in acquired-minus-released roster");
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void backendErrorWinsBeforeNormalCompletionFromBusy() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, "/caller", "term_primary");
+        sessions.asPresence().markPresent(session.terminalId());
+        sessions.onDelivered(session.terminalId(), TestTurnTokens.inert(session.terminalId()));
+
+        assertTrue(sessions.onBackendError(session.terminalId(), "backend exited"));
+        sessions.onTurnComplete(session.terminalId());
+
+        MemberSession updated = sessions.get(session.paneId()).orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR, updated.state(),
+                "normal completion must not restore DONE after a backend error from BUSY");
+        assertEquals("backend exited", updated.failureReason());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void backendErrorWinsAfterNormalCompletionFromDone() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, "/caller", "term_primary");
+        sessions.asPresence().markPresent(session.terminalId());
+        sessions.onDelivered(session.terminalId(), TestTurnTokens.inert(session.terminalId()));
+        sessions.onTurnComplete(session.terminalId());
+
+        assertTrue(sessions.onBackendError(session.terminalId(), "backend exited"));
+
+        MemberSession updated = sessions.get(session.paneId()).orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR, updated.state(),
+                "backend error must replace DONE when normal completion won first");
+        assertEquals("backend exited", updated.failureReason());
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void backendErrorMemberCannotReceiveAnotherDelivery() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, "/caller", "term_primary");
+        sessions.asPresence().markPresent(session.terminalId());
+        sessions.onDelivered(session.terminalId(), TestTurnTokens.inert(session.terminalId()));
+        assertTrue(sessions.onBackendError(session.terminalId(), "backend exited"));
+
+        sessions.onDelivered(session.terminalId(), TestTurnTokens.inert(session.terminalId()));
+
+        assertEquals(MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR, sessions.get(session.paneId()).orElseThrow().state(),
+                "onDelivered must refuse a backend-error member");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void losingCompletionDoesNotReleaseOrClearABackendErrorMember() {
+        assertLosingCompletionLeavesBackendErrorIntact(1, false,
+                "a stale completion must not release a backend-error member at the context cap");
+        assertLosingCompletionLeavesBackendErrorIntact(0, true,
+                "a stale completion must not clear the context of a backend-error member");
+    }
+
+    private void assertLosingCompletionLeavesBackendErrorIntact(int contextCap, boolean clearAfterTurn,
+                                                                  String protectedAction) {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "ltms-local", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN",
+                List.of("ccs", "ltms-local"), "tab", "fleetd-workers",
+                "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        ClaudeCodeLauncher delegate = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(new AgentControl(herdr), new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
+                new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")), Map.of(cfg.profile(), cfg), cfg.profile(), _ -> null);
+        ClearContextSpyLauncher launcher = new ClearContextSpyLauncher(delegate);
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<SessionManager> manager = new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<>();
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<String> terminal = new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicReference<>();
+        java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean armed = new java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean();
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(launcher, new RecordingWorktrees(), () -> {
+            if (armed.compareAndSet(true, false)) {
+                manager.get().onBackendError(terminal.get(), "backend exited during completion");
+            }
+            return 1;
+        }, contextCap, clearAfterTurn);
+        manager.set(sessions);
+        MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, "/caller", "term_primary");
+        terminal.set(session.terminalId());
+        sessions.asPresence().markPresent(session.terminalId());
+        sessions.onDelivered(session.terminalId(), TestTurnTokens.inert(session.terminalId()));
+        armed.set(true);
+
+        assertFalse(sessions.onTurnCompleteWithPostAction(session.terminalId()),
+                "the completion CAS loses after the injected backend error");
+
+        assertTrue(sessions.get(session.paneId()).isPresent(), protectedAction);
+        MemberSession updated = sessions.get(session.paneId()).orElseThrow();
+        assertEquals(MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR, updated.state());
+        assertEquals("backend exited during completion", updated.failureReason());
+        assertFalse(herdr.called("pane.close"), protectedAction);
+        assertEquals(0, launcher.clearContextCalls(), protectedAction);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void backendErrorForUnknownTargetIsWarnedAndDoesNotCreateASession() {
+        LoggerContext ctx = (LoggerContext) LoggerFactory.getILoggerFactory();
+        ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger sessionLog =
+                (ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger) LoggerFactory.getLogger(SessionManager.class);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.setContext(ctx);
+        appender.start();
+        sessionLog.addAppender(appender);
+        try {
+            SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(new FakeHerdr());
+
+            assertFalse(sessions.onBackendError("term_missing", "backend exited"));
+
+            assertTrue(sessions.roster().isEmpty(), "unknown target must not create a session");
+            assertTrue(appender.list.stream().anyMatch(e -> e.getLevel().equals(Level.WARN)
+                            && e.getFormattedMessage().contains("term_missing")),
+                    "unknown target is logged at WARN");
+        } finally {
+            sessionLog.detachAppender(appender);
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void backendErrorForReleasedTargetDoesNotRecreateTheSession() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, "/caller", "term_primary");
+        sessions.release(session.paneId());
+
+        assertFalse(sessions.onBackendError(session.terminalId(), "backend exited"));
+        assertTrue(sessions.get(session.paneId()).isEmpty(), "released session must stay absent");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void rosterViewIncludesFailureReasonOnlyForBackendError() {
+        MemberSession failed = new MemberSession("pane-error", "term-error", "prof", MemberRole.DEV,
+                "/cwd", null, 0, 0, 1, MemberSession.State.BACKEND_ERROR, null, null,
+                null, null, "backend exited");
+        MemberSession ordinary = new MemberSession("pane-ready", "term-ready", "prof", MemberRole.DEV,
+                "/cwd", null, 0, 0, 0, MemberSession.State.READY, null, null);
+
+        Map<String, Object> failedView = SessionManager.rosterView(failed, null);
+        Map<String, Object> ordinaryView = SessionManager.rosterView(ordinary, null);
+
+        assertEquals("backend_error", failedView.get("state"));
+        assertEquals("backend exited", failedView.get("failureReason"));
+        assertFalse(ordinaryView.containsKey("failureReason"),
+                "ordinary rows must not gain a blank failureReason field");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void onTurnFailedIsLoggedAtWarnWithThePriorState() {
         // CB-564: this transition used to be a bare DEBUG "session marked failed" — a symptom with no
@@ -333,6 +480,110 @@ class SessionManagerTest {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * fleetd #226: a contended slot is refused through the real {@link SessionManager#acquire}
+     * path before the real launcher can hand an architect charter to a process.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void aContendedArchitectSlotRefusesBeforeTheLauncherStartsAMember() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        MemberRegistry members = architectRegistry();
+        assertTrue(members.bind("architect:opus", "term_already_bound"),
+                "precondition: occupy the sole architect slot before the real spawn under test");
+        sessions.setMemberLifecycle(members);
+
+        assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class, () -> sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT,
+                null, "/caller", "term_primary", null));
+
+        assertFalse(herdr.called("agent.start"), "a refused slot must never reach the launcher");
+        assertTrue(sessions.roster().isEmpty(), "no member exists to receive the wrong charter");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void aSecondArchitectOnAnAlreadyBoundProfileIsHeldAsDevNotArchitectAndWarnsLoudly() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        MemberRegistry members = architectRegistry();
+        sessions.setMemberLifecycle(bindFailureAfterReservation(members));
+        LoggerContext ctx = (LoggerContext) LoggerFactory.getILoggerFactory();
+        ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger registryLog = (ch.qos.logback.classic.Logger)
+                LoggerFactory.getLogger(MemberRegistry.class);
+        ListAppender<ILoggingEvent> appender = new ListAppender<>();
+        appender.setContext(ctx);
+        appender.start();
+        registryLog.addAppender(appender);
+        registryLog.setLevel(Level.WARN);
+        try {
+            MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT, null,
+                    "/caller", "term_primary", null);
+
+            assertEquals(MemberRole.DEV, session.role(), "a failed reservation bind must use the fallback");
+            String warn = appender.list.stream()
+                    .filter(e -> e.getLevel().equals(Level.WARN))
+                    .map(ILoggingEvent::getFormattedMessage)
+                    .findFirst()
+                    .orElse("no slot-exhaustion WARN logged");
+            assertTrue(warn.contains("ltms-local"), "the WARN names the profile: " + warn);
+            assertTrue(warn.contains(session.terminalId()), "the WARN names the terminal: " + warn);
+        } finally {
+            registryLog.detachAppender(appender);
+        }
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void reservedArchitectSlotBindsTheLaunchedMember() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
+        sessions.setMemberLifecycle(architectRegistry());
+
+        MemberSession session = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT, null,
+                "/caller", "term_primary", null);
+
+        assertEquals(MemberRole.ARCHITECT, session.role());
+    }
+
+    private static MemberRegistry architectRegistry() {
+        return new MemberRegistry(new FleetConfig.Fleet(Map.of(), Map.of("opus", new FleetConfig.Slot("ltms-local")),
+                Map.of(), Map.of(), null));
+    }
+
+    private static MemberLifecycle bindFailureAfterReservation(MemberRegistry members) {
+        return new MemberLifecycle() {
+            @Override
+            public MemberRole acquired(MemberRole role, String profile, String terminal) {
+                return members.acquired(role, profile, terminal);
+            }
+
+            @Override
+            public void released(String terminal) {
+                members.released(terminal);
+            }
+
+            @Override
+            public void requireSlotFor(MemberRole role, String profile) {
+                members.requireSlotFor(role, profile);
+            }
+
+            @Override
+            public SlotReservation reserve(MemberRole role, String profile) {
+                return members.reserve(role, profile);
+            }
+
+            @Override
+            public boolean bind(SlotReservation reservation, String terminal) {
+                members.release(reservation);
+                assertTrue(members.bind(reservation.slot(), "term_racer"), "the racer takes the released slot");
+                return false;
+            }
+
+            @Override
+            public void release(SlotReservation reservation) {
+                members.release(reservation);
+            }
+        };
+    }
+
     @Test
     void rosterReflectsAcquiredMinusReleased() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -599,6 +850,32 @@ class SessionManagerTest {
                 "no session is registered when spawn times out (roster empty)");
     }
 
+    @Test
+    void failedArchitectLaunchReleasesItsReservationForTheNextLaunch() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        herdr.agentStatus("unknown");
+        long[] clock = {0};
+        FleetConfig.Profile cfg = new FleetConfig.Profile(
+                "ltms-local", "http://gx00.gw:8000", "coder", null, "FLEETD_WORKER_TOKEN",
+                List.of("ccs", "ltms-local"), "tab", "fleetd-workers",
+                "worker: {profile} #{n}", null, null, null);
+        ClaudeCodeLauncher workers = new ClaudeCodeLauncher(
+                new AgentControl(herdr), new WorkspaceControl(herdr),
+                new SubscriptionGuard(Set.of("gx00.gw")), Map.of(cfg.profile(), cfg), cfg.profile(), _ -> null,
+                1, () -> clock[0], () -> clock[0] += 10);
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workers, new GitWorktrees(), () -> 0L, 0);
+        sessions.setMemberLifecycle(architectRegistry());
+
+        assertThrows(PeerUnreachableException.class, () -> sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT,
+                null, "/caller", "term_primary", null));
+
+        herdr.agentStatus("idle");
+        MemberSession retry = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT, null,
+                "/caller", "term_primary", null);
+        assertEquals(MemberRole.ARCHITECT, retry.role(),
+                "the failed launch returned its reservation instead of silently shrinking the slot pool");
+    }
+
     // --- CB-516: release must notify, so a blocked send can be failed --------------------------
 
     @Test
@@ -872,6 +1149,76 @@ class SessionManagerTest {
         }
     }
 
+    /** Delegates all launcher work while recording context clears. */
+    private static final class ClearContextSpyLauncher implements PeerLauncher {
+        private final PeerLauncher delegate;
+        private int clearContextCalls;
+
+        ClearContextSpyLauncher(PeerLauncher delegate) {
+            this.delegate = delegate;
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public Set<Capability> capabilities() {
+            return delegate.capabilities();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public Set<Capability> capabilitiesFor(String profileName) {
+            return delegate.capabilitiesFor(profileName);
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public PeerHandle spawn(SpawnRequest req) {
+            return delegate.spawn(req);
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public Set<String> profiles() {
+            return delegate.profiles();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public String defaultProfile() {
+            return delegate.defaultProfile();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public String effectiveCwd(SpawnRequest req) {
+            return delegate.effectiveCwd(req);
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public List<String> parityOverlay(String profileName) {
+            return delegate.parityOverlay(profileName);
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public List<?> list() {
+            return delegate.list();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public int reapOrphanWorkers() {
+            return delegate.reapOrphanWorkers();
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public void stop(String id) {
+            delegate.stop(id);
+        }
+
+        @Override
+        public boolean clearContext(String id) {
+            clearContextCalls++;
+            return delegate.clearContext(id);
+        }
+
+        int clearContextCalls() {
+            return clearContextCalls;
+        }
+    }
+
     @Test
     void acquireRecordsTheAgentSessionIdFromTheHandle() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
@@ -887,15 +1234,18 @@ class SessionManagerTest {
     }
 
     @Test
-    void acquireWithNeitherSessionFieldLeavesAgentSessionIdNull() {
+    void acquireWithNeitherSessionFieldStillMintsAnAgentSessionId() {
+        // fleetd #214: the claude-code launcher mints a session id for EVERY spawn, so a member is
+        // resumable even when the spawn asked for no session identity.
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         SessionManager sessions = sessionManager(herdr);
 
         MemberSession s = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, null, null);
 
-        assertNull(s.agentSessionId(), "no identity requested — unchanged from before CB-584");
-        assertFalse(SessionManager.rosterView(s, null).containsKey("agentSessionId"),
-                "a null id is omitted from the roster, like charterSha256 for a receipt-less session");
+        assertNotNull(s.agentSessionId(),
+                "fleetd #214: a plain spawn mints a session id, so every member is resumable");
+        assertTrue(SessionManager.rosterView(s, null).containsKey("agentSessionId"),
+                "the minted id is in the roster, so fleet_list advertises every member's resume handle");
     }
 
     @Test

fleetd/src/test/java/dev/ltms/fleet/session/WorktreeSessionManagerTest.java

@@ -95,10 +95,9 @@ class WorktreeSessionManagerTest {
                 null, "/caller/proj", null, null);
         assertEquals("architect:architect", members.slotForTerminal(replacement.terminalId()));
 
-        MemberSession overflow = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT,
-                null, "/caller/proj", null, null);
-        assertNull(members.slotForTerminal(overflow.terminalId()),
-                "a full slot pool must not stop the architect spawn");
+        assertThrows(IllegalArgumentException.class, () -> sessions.acquire("ltms-local", MemberRole.ARCHITECT,
+                null, "/caller/proj", null, null),
+                "a full slot pool must stop the spawn before it can receive an architect charter");
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -141,7 +140,7 @@ class WorktreeSessionManagerTest {
     void worktreeAcquireRunsParityOverlayWithProfileDefaults() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
         FakeWorktrees worktrees = new FakeWorktrees().withRepoRoot("/repo").withPrefix("/wt")
-                .track(".envrc")
+                .track(".env")
                 .exists(".claude/settings.local.json");
         SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(herdr), worktrees);
 
@@ -152,14 +151,15 @@ class WorktreeSessionManagerTest {
         FakeWorktrees.OverlayCall overlay = worktrees.lastOverlay();
         assertNotNull(overlay);
         assertEquals("/repo", overlay.repoRoot());
-        assertEquals(List.of(".env", ".envrc"),
-                overlay.requested(), "default parity overlay is used when unset");
+        assertEquals(List.of(".env"),
+                overlay.requested(), "default parity overlay is used when unset (CB-148: .env only, "
+                        + ".envrc is no longer defaulted because it is executable shell direnv runs on cd)");
         assertFalse(overlay.requested().contains(".mcp.json"),
                 "CB-525: replicating the primary's MCP config gives a worker the primary's IDE "
                         + "servers, which navigate its edits out of its own worktree");
-        assertEquals(List.of(".envrc"), overlay.copied(),
+        assertEquals(List.of(".env"), overlay.copied(),
                 "existing paths are copied; missing paths are skipped");
-        assertEquals(List.of(".envrc"), overlay.skipWorktree(),
+        assertEquals(List.of(".env"), overlay.skipWorktree(),
                 "tracked copied paths are --skip-worktree'd");
     }
 
@@ -258,6 +258,38 @@ class WorktreeSessionManagerTest {
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * CB-576 review (fleetd #116). A worktree that is already gone (operator cleanup,
+     * {@code git worktree prune}, an earlier half-completed release) must not break teardown.
+     * {@code hasUncommitted} reports the missing path clean (mirroring {@code GitWorktrees}), so
+     * {@code release} still runs {@code notifyReleased} (the CB-516 fast-fail for a blocked
+     * {@code fleet_send} caller) and {@code launcher.stop} (so the pane is not orphaned), and falls
+     * through to the already-gone-tolerant {@code remove}. Since CB-581 this all happens because the
+     * notify-and-stop work sits in {@code release}'s {@code finally}/post-try block rather than a
+     * checked branch — this test pins that shape by construction.
+     */
+    @Test
+    void releaseStillStopsPaneAndNotifiesWhenWorktreeIsGone() {
+        FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();
+        FakeWorktrees worktrees = new FakeWorktrees().withRepoRoot("/repo").withPrefix("/wt");
+        SessionManager sessions = new SessionManager(workerService(herdr), worktrees);
+        List<SessionManager.ReleaseDetail> released = new java.util.concurrent.CopyOnWriteArrayList<>();
+        sessions.onRelease(released::add);
+        MemberSession s = sessions.acquire("ltms-local", null, "/caller/proj", null,
+                new WorktreeRequest("cb-576g", null));
+
+        worktrees.markGone(s.worktree());
+        sessions.release(s.paneId());
+
+        assertEquals(1, released.size(),
+                "notifyReleased must still fire when the worktree is already gone (CB-516)");
+        assertEquals(s.terminalId(), released.getFirst().terminalId());
+        assertTrue(herdr.called("pane.close"),
+                "the pane must still be stopped when the worktree is already gone");
+        assertEquals(1, worktrees.removeCalls().size(),
+                "release still calls the already-gone-tolerant remove");
+    }
+
     @Test
     void drainAllPreservesWorktreeOfIdleSession() {
         FakeHerdr herdr = new FakeHerdr();

scripts/probe-member-credentials.sh

@@ -22,8 +22,34 @@
 #     A prefix of a short secret is most of the secret, and it would end up pasted into a ticket. The
 #     hash answers every question the prefix was for — is it set, is it the same value as over there,
 #     is it the CB-592 sentinel — and answers none of the ones it should not.
-#   * It never writes anywhere, never contacts the network, and never touches secrets.sh, which is
-#     the operator's file.
+#   * It never writes anywhere, never contacts the network except the daemon's own REST port (see
+#     below), and never touches secrets.sh, which is the operator's file.
+#
+# WHERE THE NAME LIST COMES FROM (fleetd #111 / CB-608)
+#
+# Earlier versions of this script carried their own hardcoded NAMES array, recorded by hand on
+# 2026-08-16. The live memberCredentials: policy in fleetd.yaml grew past that list, and this probe
+# never noticed — it kept checking the same 31 names, printed a clean-looking table, and exited 0.
+# A verification tool that silently under-reports the thing it verifies is worse than no tool at
+# all, because its "clean" output gets taken as proof rather than treated with the suspicion an
+# absent tool would get.
+#
+# The fix is the same one #114 used for the drifted tool catalogue: delete the hand-maintained copy
+# rather than update it. This script now fetches the policy's name list from the daemon itself, at
+# `GET /member-credentials` (dev.ltms.fleet.member.MemberCredentialPolicyView via FleetApp) — names
+# and counts only, the same way the daemon's own startup log line is computed, from the SAME class.
+# If fleetd adds a name to memberCredentials.known tomorrow, this probe checks it tomorrow too,
+# with no edit here required. There is no local fallback list. See fetch_policy() below for what
+# happens when the daemon cannot be reached — it is a hard failure, on purpose (see next section).
+#
+# WHY AN UNREACHABLE DAEMON IS A HARD FAILURE, NOT A DEGRADED RUN
+#
+# An empty (or short) name list passes every subset check trivially — a probe that checked zero
+# names would print "0 of 0 names are set" and look identical to a clean bill of health. That trap
+# has bitten this project twice in one week (see docs/memory — "silent defaults disable features"
+# and "a test on the seam does not prove the caller"). So the denominator is guarded explicitly:
+# this script refuses to proceed unless it got a policy with at least one known name, and it refuses
+# just as hard if the count it fetched does not match the count it is about to check.
 #
 # HOW TO RUN IT
 #
@@ -32,34 +58,22 @@
 #   2. For the comparison row, in your OWN shell — a lead, not a member:
 #        bash scripts/probe-member-credentials.sh --allow-outside-member
 #
+# Both readings need the daemon's REST port reachable (default http://127.0.0.1:8765; override with
+# FLEETD_HOST). That is normally true in every pane this script is meant to run in.
+#
 # The two outputs side by side are the finding: any name whose hash matches between them is a
 # credential the member holds in full.
 #
 set -uo pipefail
 
-# The names ${SHARED_ENV}/tools/secrets.sh exports, recorded on 2026-08-16 (issue #82). Names only —
-# this list contains no values and never should. If secrets.sh gains a name, this list goes stale and
-# the probe silently stops asking about it; that staleness is itself part of what #82's criterion 4
-# has to solve, so it is called out in the summary rather than hidden.
-NAMES=(
-  AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN BESZEL_ADMIN_EMAIL BESZEL_ADMIN_PASSWORD
-  BESZEL_HUB_URL BESZEL_KEY BESZEL_UNIVERSAL_TOKEN
-  BRAIN_MCP_TOKEN CF_ACCOUNT_ID CF_API_TOKEN
-  CF_USER_TOKEN CONFLUENCE_API_TOKEN CONFLUENCE_USERNAME
-  CONTEXT7_TOKEN GITEA_HOST GITLAB_OAUTH_CLIENT_SECRET
-  GITLAB_PERSONAL_ACCESS_TOKEN GRAFANA_ADMIN_PASSWORD GRAFANA_ADMIN_USER
-  HASS_TOKEN HW_PASSWORD HW_USER
-  LTMS_API_KEY MEMORY_MCP_TOKEN METRICS_PUSH_TOKEN
-  OPENCODE_AUTOMODE_MODEL TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID
-  TS_API_KEY TS_AUTHKEY WORKER_GITEA_TOKEN
-  GITEA_ACCESS_TOKEN
-)
+FLEETD_HOST="${FLEETD_HOST:-http://127.0.0.1:8765}"
+POLICY_URL="${FLEETD_HOST%/}/member-credentials"
 
 allow_outside=0
 for arg in "$@"; do
   case "$arg" in
     --allow-outside-member) allow_outside=1 ;;
-    -h|--help) sed -n '2,40p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
+    -h|--help) sed -n '2,60p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
     *) echo "unknown argument: $arg" >&2; exit 2 ;;
   esac
 done
@@ -75,6 +89,107 @@ EOF
   exit 1
 fi
 
+# --- fetch the policy from the daemon (fleetd #111) — no local fallback, ever ------------------
+#
+# Prefer jq (a real JSON parser); fall back to python3 (present on every host this has run on so
+# far); if neither exists, fail loudly rather than guess at the JSON with grep/sed, which is exactly
+# the kind of "looks like it worked" degradation this ticket exists to remove.
+#
+# NOTE: jq's `//` alternative operator treats `false` AND `0` as "missing" and substitutes the
+# default — so `.present // empty` silently turns a real `"present": false` into an empty string
+# ("unknown"), not the false it actually is. Every extraction below reads its field directly
+# instead, so a genuine false/0 is reported as exactly that, not swallowed into "unknown".
+if ! command -v jq >/dev/null 2>&1 && ! command -v python3 >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  echo "refusing to run: neither jq nor python3 is on PATH, and this probe will not guess at JSON" \
+       "with grep/sed. Install one of them, or run from a shell that has one." >&2
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+POLICY_JSON="$(curl -fsS --max-time 5 "$POLICY_URL" 2>/dev/null)"
+CURL_STATUS=$?
+if [ "$CURL_STATUS" -ne 0 ] || [ -z "$POLICY_JSON" ]; then
+  cat >&2 <<EOF
+refusing to run: could not fetch the memberCredentials policy from $POLICY_URL (curl exit $CURL_STATUS).
+
+This probe has NO built-in name list any more (fleetd #111) — it only checks what the live daemon
+reports, so an unreachable daemon means it cannot check anything at all. It will not fall back to a
+guessed or empty list, because an empty list would pass every check trivially and look clean.
+
+Fix: confirm fleetd is up (curl \${FLEETD_HOST:-http://127.0.0.1:8765}/healthz) and that
+FLEETD_HOST (if set) points at it, then re-run.
+EOF
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+# One parse pass: line 1 = present (true/false/null), line 2 = policy mode (possibly blank),
+# lines 3-5 = knownCount/allowedCount/blockedCount, remaining lines = the known[] names. A single
+# pass avoids re-parsing (and re-risking a truthiness bug) five separate times.
+if command -v jq >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  mapfile -t _FIELDS < <(printf '%s' "$POLICY_JSON" | jq -r '
+      (.present | tostring),
+      (.policy // ""),
+      (.knownCount // 0 | tostring),
+      (.allowedCount // 0 | tostring),
+      (.blockedCount // 0 | tostring),
+      (.known[]? // empty)')
+else
+  mapfile -t _FIELDS < <(printf '%s' "$POLICY_JSON" | python3 - <<'PY'
+import json, sys
+data = json.load(sys.stdin)
+print(str(data.get("present")))
+print(data.get("policy") or "")
+print(data.get("knownCount") if data.get("knownCount") is not None else 0)
+print(data.get("allowedCount") if data.get("allowedCount") is not None else 0)
+print(data.get("blockedCount") if data.get("blockedCount") is not None else 0)
+for n in (data.get("known") or []):
+    print(n)
+PY
+  )
+fi
+
+PRESENT="${_FIELDS[0]:-null}"
+POLICY_MODE="${_FIELDS[1]:-}"
+KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED="${_FIELDS[2]:-0}"
+ALLOWED_COUNT_REPORTED="${_FIELDS[3]:-0}"
+BLOCKED_COUNT_REPORTED="${_FIELDS[4]:-0}"
+NAMES=("${_FIELDS[@]:5}")
+
+# knownCount must be a plain non-negative integer for the arithmetic guard below — a malformed or
+# unparseable response must fail loudly, not be coerced into a number that happens to compare true.
+case "$KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED" in
+  ''|*[!0-9]*)
+    echo "refusing to run: knownCount in the response ('$KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED') is not a plain" \
+         "non-negative integer — the response could not be parsed as expected." >&2
+    exit 1
+    ;;
+esac
+
+# --- guard the denominator explicitly — never proceed on a zero/short count ---------------------
+#
+# This is the exact trap named in the ticket: an empty (or truncated) NAMES array passes every
+# subsequent "is it set" check vacuously and prints a table that LOOKS complete. So this is checked
+# before anything else runs, with a message that says why, not just that it failed.
+if [ "${#NAMES[@]}" -eq 0 ] || [ "$KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED" -eq 0 ]; then
+  cat >&2 <<EOF
+refusing to run: the policy fetched from $POLICY_URL contains 0 known names (present=${PRESENT:-unknown}).
+
+Either memberCredentials: is absent/empty on the running daemon (nothing is protected — see fleetd's
+own startup warning), or the response could not be parsed. Either way, checking zero names would
+print a clean-looking table for a policy that protects nothing, or for a probe that read nothing.
+This is refused rather than reported as a pass.
+EOF
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+if [ "${#NAMES[@]}" -ne "$KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED" ]; then
+  cat >&2 <<EOF
+refusing to run: the policy reports knownCount=$KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED but the known[] array this probe
+parsed has ${#NAMES[@]} entries. That mismatch means the JSON was not parsed correctly, and this
+probe will not check a name list it cannot trust to be complete.
+EOF
+  exit 1
+fi
+
 # Prefer sha256sum (Linux), fall back to shasum (macOS). If neither exists, report presence and
 # length only — degraded, but never a value.
 hasher=""
@@ -95,12 +210,13 @@ else
   where="NOT a member — comparison reading only"
 fi
 
-echo "CB-596 credential probe"
+echo "CB-596 credential probe (fleetd #111: names sourced live from $POLICY_URL)"
 echo "reading from : $where"
 echo "shell        : ${SHELL:-unknown}"
 echo "hash         : ${hasher:-none available — lengths only}"
 # Only printed so the two readings can be told apart when they are pasted side by side.
 echo "host         : $(hostname 2>/dev/null || echo unknown)"
+echo "policy       : mode=${POLICY_MODE:-unknown} known=$KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED allowed=${ALLOWED_COUNT_REPORTED:-?} blocked=${BLOCKED_COUNT_REPORTED:-?}"
 echo
 printf '%-30s %-7s %6s  %s\n' "NAME" "STATE" "LEN" "SHA256-12"
 printf '%-30s %-7s %6s  %s\n' "------------------------------" "-------" "------" "------------"
@@ -118,6 +234,7 @@ done
 
 echo
 echo "$set_count of ${#NAMES[@]} names are set in this shell."
+echo "policy contains $KNOWN_COUNT_REPORTED name(s); this run checked ${#NAMES[@]} — they match."
 echo
 cat <<'EOF'
 How to read this:
@@ -129,7 +246,8 @@ How to read this:
     most urgent thing on this page.
   * AI_GATEWAY_TOKEN matching is expected and correct, not a leak: fleetd.yaml names it in
     `tokenEnv:` for the local and gx profiles, so a member reaching the gateway is by design.
-  * A name that is set here but is NOT in the list above will not appear at all. The list was
-    recorded on 2026-08-16 and does not update itself. Anything added to secrets.sh since then is
-    invisible to this probe — which is the same gap issue #82 criterion 4 asks to close properly.
+  * The name list above is fetched live from the running daemon's memberCredentials: policy
+    (fleetd #111) — it is never hand-maintained here, so it cannot go stale the way the old
+    hardcoded list did. If the daemon's policy changes, the next run of this script reflects it
+    with no edit to this file.
 EOF